Down the Frozen River

Tag: Corey Crawford

  • November 9 – Day 37 – The best in the business

    It’s your favorite day to head to your local rink! It’s Thirsty Thursday! May all of our readers – of legal age, of course – enjoy a responsibly fun-filled night at the game!

    Alright, I’ll stop impersonating your dad now.

    With seven games on the schedule this evening, there’s a decent selection of NHL action to choose from. Two of those contests (Edmonton at New Jersey and Chicago at Philadelphia [TVAS]) drop the puck at 7 p.m., half an hour before Minnesota at Montréal (RDS/TSN2). 8 p.m. marks the start of Arizona at St. Louis, followed by Detroit at Calgary an hour later. Finally, the West Coast gets involved at 10 p.m. when Vancouver pays a visit to Anaheim, followed 30 minutes later by tonight’s nightcap: Tampa Bay at Los Angeles (SN). All times Eastern.

    Before the season started, I had the Lightning’s annual trip to Hollywood circled for the simple fact that G Peter Budaj could be squaring off against the team he started 51 games for last season. Backup Budaj is in fact starting this evening, but it’s because both clubs hold solid early season leads in their divisions that this a must-watch matchup.

     

     

     

     

     

    The 12-2-2 Lightning have been the talk of the town since many pundits have pinned them as Stanley Cup favorites, and they haven’t disappointed. In that same strain, they face a tough task this weekend as they tour the Golden State, but the trip is already off to a great start after Tampa beat the Sharks 5-1 in The Tank last night.

    Since G Andrei Vasilevskiy earned his 12th victory of the season last night, Budaj is in line for his third start of the season. With only a 0-1-1 record, he’s still looking for his 2016-’17 groove.

    Perhaps he’ll find it tonight in the Staples Center, as he hasn’t been the same since departing the Kings organization. Last season in Los Angeles after being called up from the AHL following G Jonathan Quick‘s lower-body injury that had him sidelined for four-and-a-half months, Budaj managed an impressive .917 save percentage and 2.12 GAA to keep the Kings within reach of the playoffs. Though Los Angeles failed to qualify, it was certainly no fault of Budaj’s.

    Considering how well Budaj had performed, the Kings elected to “sell high” and trade him to Tampa Bay for G Ben Bishop (now with the Stars) and a 2017 fifth-round pick on February 26, just in time for last season’s trade deadline. In his six starts since then, he’s managed only an .885 save percentage and 3.16 GAA, an effort far inferior to how he performed in La-La-Land.

    Though I suppose it’s possible he left his mojo in his Staples Center locker, it’s more likely he’s a goaltender that simply needs regular playing time to maintain his rhythm. Unfortunately for him, he plays behind a 23-year-old netminder that has posted a .928 save percentage and 2.41 GAA to be among the league’s top-10 goalies. Until Vasilevskiy’s performance drops (which isn’t all that likely), Budaj will simply need to adjust to riding the pine more than he’d like unless he’d prefer to earn ice time with another team after being traded, waived or – in a worst-case scenario – in Syracuse.

    Of course, all this talk about who’s in goal is borderline ridiculous considering how good Tampa Bay’s offense is. Sure, the Bolts allow a sixth-fewest 2.63 goals against-per-game, but that effort is more than eclipsed by an offense that is the best in the NHL by scoring 3.94 goals-per-game.

    There’s no doubt that a large majority of this attack is coming from the Bolts’ top line of Vladislav Namestnikov (7-10-17 totals), Steven Stamkos (7-21-28) and Nikita Kucherov (15-11-26). Tampa has already buried 63 goals this season, and over 46 percent of those tallies have come off the sticks of these three players.

    Making Kucherov’s goal total even more impressive is he’s not doing it by peppering his opposing goaltender. Instead he’s being selective with his opportunities, and he’s been rewarded with a 24.2 shooting percentage on 62 attempts that is the best in the NHL among players who have fired the puck at least 40 times.

    Before we move on to the Kings, don’t think for a minute that Namestnikov is included on this line simply to feed pucks to Stamkos and Kucherov. He’s just as potent with the puck on his stick, and that was no more apparent than last night when he scored the last two goals of the game.

    If any team poses a threat to the Lightning attack, it’s the 11-2-2 Kings. Led by 9-2-1 Quick, Los Angeles has played the best defensive hockey in the NHL by allowing only 2.27 goals against-per-game.

    Considering the Kings’ defense allows a 13th-most 32.5 shots against-per-game, almost all of Los Angeles’ success is the result of stellar play by Quick. The 31-year-old has been nearly unbeatable this year in 12 starts, as he’s stopped 93.7 percent of the nearly 400 shots he’s faced this season for a 2.06 GAA. Only Chicago’s G Corey Crawford can claim better numbers in net, but Quick has a superior record – and at the end of the day, those three numbers are the ones that matter most.

    Choosing a winner in this game is tough, because even though I’m more than convinced that the Lightning are the superior team, the Kings do have the benefit of having yesterday off and not having to travel from Northern California. That being said, I have faith that Tampa Bay’s defense can find a way to slow down the Kings’ eighth-best offense to extends its winning streak to three games.

    With three goals in the first period, the New York Rangers beat the Boston Bruins 4-2 at Madison Square Garden in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    A total of four goals were struck in the first period before an empty second frame. W Pavel Buchnevich (D Ryan McDonagh and W Michael Grabner) got the scoring started 9:53 into the contest with a high-cheese wrist shot, but the Rangers’ lead lasted only 21 seconds before a RW David Pastrnak (Third Star of the Game C Patrice Bergeron and F Anders Bjork) wrister through First Star G Henrik Lundqvist‘s five-hole leveled the game.

    It’s remarkable enough that the Blueshirts’ next two goals were struck within 29 seconds of each other, but the fact that they were both scored by Second Star LW Jimmy Vesey is truly extraordinary. Assisted by Buchnevich and C Mika Zibanejad, Vesey buried a wrister with 5:19 remaining in the frame to reclaim the lead for New York.

    Vesey’s second goal proved to be the game-winner. The goal-scoring  sequence started when C David Desharnais reset the play from below the goal line to D Kevin Shattenkirk at the top of the right face-off circle. Shattenkirk slung his wrister just wide of the net, but Vesey was able to clean up the mess and beat G Tuukka Rask‘s left skate to the near post.

    Though they fired 13 shots at Lundqvist in the second period, the Bruins could not make a dent in New York’s Vesey’s two-goal lead. Instead, Boston couldn’t find its second goal until the 6:44 mark of the final frame when Bergeron (Pastrnak and D Torey Krug) scored a wrister. The Bruins continued to apply the pressure for the remainder of frame by duplicating their second period 13-shot attack, but they couldn’t sneak another goal past King Henrik. They eventually had to pull Rask for an extra attacker, and that’s when W Rick Nash (McDonagh) registered the final goal of the game with eight seconds before the final horn.

    Lundqvist earned the victory after saving 31-of-33 shots faced (.939 save percentage), leaving the loss to Rask, who saved 29-of-32 (.906).

    The Rangers’ home victory snaps a two-game winning streak by road teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series. As such, hosts in the series now have a 19-14-4 record that is four points better than the visitors’.

  • November 4 – Day 32 – Another Saturday, another rivalry

    I made a snarky comment in yesterday’s column about the NHL holding out on its fans by scheduling only two games on Friday.

    Boy was I just served.

    There’s a full slate of games on tap this Saturday – 13, to be exact, which is just as many as Thursday. It all gets started with our lone matinee of the day at 2 p.m. when Vegas makes its first-ever visit to Ottawa (TVAS2). The real fun begins at 7 p.m., as that’s when six games (Toronto at St. Louis [CBC], Montréal at Winnipeg [SN/TVAS], Washington at Boston [NHLN], Columbus at Tampa Bay, the New York Rangers at Florida and Colorado at Philadelphia) will drop the puck, followed by two more (Buffalo at Dallas and Chicago at Minnesota) an hour later and Carolina at Arizona at 9 p.m. The West Coast finally gets involved at 10 p.m. with the beginning of Pittsburgh at Vancouver (CBC/SN), trailed half an hour later by tonight’s co-nightcaps: Nashville at Los Angeles and Anaheim at San Jose. All times Eastern.

    As usual, there’s a compelling reason to keep tabs on almost every game. That especially goes for the action at the Xcel Energy Center and SAP Center this evening, as rivalry games always bring out the best in every player involved.

    I’m in the mood for a heated rivalry game. Since we just featured the Ducks yesterday, lets see what action the State of Hockey has to offer this evening.

     

    Thee straight playoff meetings has a way of creating more than a bit of animosity between two clubs – especially when the same team won all three series.

    Interestingly, as the Western Conference table currently stands coming into tonight’s game, neither club has the chance of seeing the other during the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs because they’re both slated to be golfing come this April.

    The chance of that situation holding for the rest of the season is unlikely, and that makes tonight’s game even more important as the 6-5-2 Blackhawks and 5-4-2 Wild work to climb the Central Division standings.

    When Chicago has found success this year, it’s all been by the work of 6-4-0 G Corey Crawford – even in spite of his defense. Even though the Hawks allow a third-most 34.5 shots-per-game to reach their own crease, the Windy City is home to the (t)sixth-best goals-against average in the league at 2.62.

    Forget being the better of the Blackhawks’ two goaltenders, or even the best in the Central Division. Heck, saying Crawford’s .941 save percentage and 1.92 GAA is at the top of the Western Conference (yes, even better than G Jonathan Quick) does not even do him justice. Among all 29 netminders in the NHL that have started at least six games, Crawford is number one in both statistics.

    Given the 32-year-old’s performance for the season, perhaps it’s no surprise that the Hawks’ penalty kill is also among the top-10 in the league. Even though Crawford’s .918 save percentage against the power play is only fifth-best in the league, Chicago has killed 83.3 percent of opposing man-advantages to tie for ninth-best in the NHL. If D Brent Seabrook, who leads the team with 2.4 blocks-per-game, can find a way to inspire his defensive corps to be even just a little stiffer while shorthanded, this Chicago team can keep riding its goaltender’s career season to a 10th-straight playoff appearance.

    This evening, Crawford will face a good test against an offense that knows what it’s doing, as Minnesota’s 3.36 goals-per-game is the third-best effort in the West.

    What makes the Wild so difficult to defend against is their unpredictability. D Jared Spurgeon currently leads the team in production with his 2-7-9 totals from the top defensive-pair. Minnesota’s leading forward is its top-line center Mikko Koivu, who is equally potent passing and shooting – made evident by his 4-4-8 totals.

    Both Koivu and Spurgeon’s seasons might be foreseeable, but it’s the fact that third-liner W Chris Stewart‘s 6-2-8 campaign begins the list of depth scorers that makes the Wild so potent. Utilizing his incredible .273 shooting percentage, he’s provided 16 percent of the Wild’s goals from his spot on the third line. Add in the fact that Minnesota is also home to players like C Eric Staal, D Ryan Suter and W Jason Zucker, and you have a team that is capable of scoring regardless of which personnel is on the ice.

    Though this contest is being played at Xcel Energy Center, I’m leaning towards Crawford being able to ensure a victory for his Blackhawks.

    The Nashville Predators have won their last two games played at the Honda Center, as they beat the Anaheim Ducks 5-3 in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    The Preds found a fast start to the contest, as they registered their first goal only 6:26 into the matchup courtesy of a LW Scott Hartnell (First Star of the Game D Roman Josi and W Pontus Aberg) tip-in. Anaheim nearly made it to the dressing room for first intermission with the opportunity to regroup after giving up only one goal, but Josi (C Colton Sissons and C Frederick Gaudreau) scored a snap shot with 49 seconds remaining in the frame to give Nashville a two-goal advantage.

    Just like in the first period, the Predators were quick to pounce on the Ducks at the start of the second frame. Scoring his first goal of the season, D Matt Irwin (D Yannick Weber and Gaudreau) gave Nashville a 3-0 advantage 3:05 into the period. Anaheim finally got on the scoreboard 79 seconds thanks to F Antoine Vermette (W Ondrej Kase and LW Nick Ritchie) and his wrist shot, but could not build any momentum off the marker. That led to 12:56 of scoreless action.

    Ritchie proved important in breaking the game’s scoreless skid, but it wasn’t in the Ducks’ favor. Instead, he earned a seat in the penalty box (his second of the period) for slashing Gaudreau with 3:35 remaining in the frame. 55 seconds later, W Viktor Arvidsson (D Mattias Ekholm and LW Kevin Fiala) registered what proved to be the game-winning goal.

    Arvidsson owes every bit of his successful slap shot to a patient Predators power play. Fiala was working with the puck in the right face-off circle and along the boards, but he simply didn’t like the look he was getting at G John Gibson‘s net with D Hampus Lindholm in his way. He eventually returned the puck to Ekholm at the point, who slid a pass across the zone to Arvidsson at the top of the opposite circle that the wing whipped past Gibson’s glove into the back of the net.

    Whether he was working to match Arvidsson’s power play goal or Josi’s late-period heroics, Lindholm (F Rickard Rakell) scored a slapper with 15 seconds remaining on the second frame clock to pull the Ducks back within a 4-2 deficit.

    Anaheim fans finally had a chance to truly believe their club had a chance at the 7:41 mark of the third period when Second Star W Jakob Silfverberg (C Derek Grant and Third Star F Chris Wagner) notched a slapper to pull the Ducks back within a goal. But, try as they might with their 13 shots-on-goal, the Ducks simply could not find a way past G Pekka Rinne, eventually forcing them to pull Gibson. D P.K. Subban (Rinne and F Austin Watson) took advantage of the empty cage with 18 seconds remaining in regulation to ensure a Predators victory.

    By saving 35-of-38 shots faced (.921 save percentage) – not to mention earning his first point of the season – Rinne did all he could to earn his sixth win of the season. On the other side, Gibson took the loss after saving 25-of-29 (.862).

    Nashville’s win away from Bridgestone Arena earns another two points for road teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series, but visitors still trail the 17-11-4 hosts by six points.

  • October 27 – Day 24 – They’re at it again

    Thank goodness that work is finally done for the week. Time to sit back and take in the weekend’s hockey!

    The weekend starts early in Vegas, as a 3 p.m. local start time against Colorado (TVAS) means a 6 p.m. puck drop on the East Coast. The usual starting time of 7 p.m. brings with it two contests (Ottawa at New Jersey [RDS2] and Winnipeg at Columbus), followed by St. Louis at Carolina half an hour later. Nashville pays a visit to Chicago (NHLN/TVAS) at 8:30 p.m., with tonight’s nightcap – Dallas at Calgary (SN360) – waiting until 9 p.m. to get underway.

    All times Eastern unless otherwise noted.

    I was going to complain about featuring the second Nashville at Chicago matchup of a season that is not even a month old, but upon remembering how competitive and entertaining their first meeting was, there’s no other choice! To the Windy City we go!

     

    Now, with this being the second time in two weeks that this matchup has been featured, I’m sure I don’t need to rehash how the Predators swept the Hawks in four games by a combined score of 13-3 that included two shutouts. I’m sure I also don’t need to go over how the eighth-seeded Preds went on to win the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl.

    Oh, I guess I just did anyways. As a fan of one of Chicago’s rivals, I guess I simply couldn’t help myself.

    Whether or not that playoff elimination still motivates the Blackhawks against Nashville (I’d bet the house it does), we have more current data to help us preview and predict this game.

    For starters, we know that the Hawks needed overtime to secure a 2-1 victory at the United Center the last time these squads met on October 14. You can read a slightly more in-depth recap here, but the main thing to know is, with the help of LW Scott Hartnell and D P.K. Subban, F Filip Forsberg got Nashville on the board late in the second period before F Patrick Sharp (F John Hayden and D Cody Franson) leveled the game in the closing six minutes of regulation and W Brandon Saad (F Patrick Kane and D Duncan Keith) cleaned things up in overtime.

    If only everything in life was as simple as a one-sentence game recap.

    That low scoring affair proved to be a sign of things to come, as both teams have scored only a total of nine goals in four games played since departing the United Center that Saturday night, tying them for the fourth-lowest goal production in that time span.

    For Chicago, the downturn in scoring has been no fault of Kane’s. Showtime has averaged a point-per-game in those four games, including three goals. The Predators have also had their own offensive standouts in Forsberg and D Roman Josi, as both have 2-3-5 totals since October 15.

    Instead, Chicago and Nashville have continued their strong defensive efforts to find wins.

    The Predators in particular have been studs at keeping opponents off the scoreboard of late. In the past two weeks, they’ve allowed only seven goals against in four games, an effort that’s overshadowed only by Tampa Bay’s 10 goals against in six games played in the same stretch of time.

    It’s no secret how good Smashville’s defense is, but D Alexei Emelin has been playing at another level since his last visit to Chicago. He’s blocked two shots-per-game to lead the team while also averaging 3.3 hits-per-contest. Through his bold leadership while D Ryan Ellis is recovering from an offseason knee surgery, the Predators have allowed only 29.8 shots against-per-game for the entire season, the fourth-best mark in the NHL.

    Meanwhile, Chicago’s (t)eighth-best 2.6 goals against-per-game is due to the play of only one man: G Corey Crawford. Never before has Crawford posted a season save percentage over .93 percent, but he’s currently in possession of a .936 save rate that is second only to G Jonathan Quick‘s unbelievable .944. Considering the Blackhawks’ defense allows a 35.6 shots against-per-game that is second-worst in the league, Crawford being at the top of his game may be an integral piece to the success of this team both tonight and for the remainder of the campaign.

    Even though the Blackhawks have a decent 3-1-1 record at home this season – including their victory over Nashville – I’m actually leaning towards the Preds taking this game. Thanks to Emelin, Nashville looks like it’s finally clicking without Ellis and will be a tough out for a Chicago team struggling to score.

    In yesterday’s preview, I predicted a barn-burner would go the Senators’ way. In yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day, the Ottawa Senators beat the Philadelphia Flyers 5-4 at the Canadian Tire Centre.

    There’s no better way to start a game than with three unanswered goals in the first period. That’s exactly what Ottawa did, starting with D Dion Phaneuf‘s (C Filip Chlapik and F Chris DiDomenico) power play slap shot only 91 seconds into the game (what D Brandon Manning was doing slashing DiDomenico only 36 seconds into the game, I’ll never know). D Mark Borowiecki (F Mike Hoffman and First Star of the Game C Jean-Gabriel Pageau) scored his first goal of the season 8:19 later to give Ottawa a 2-0 lead, followed by Pageau (Third Star D Erik Karlsson) burying one of his patented shorthanded wrist shots with 6:32 remaining in the frame to further extend the Sens’ advantage.

    Whatever Head Coach Dave Hakstol screamed during the intermission certainly worked, because the Flyers were able to respond with two goals of their own in the second period. RW Jakub Voracek (Second Star C Sean Couturier and D Ivan Provorov) finally stashed his first goal of the season with 5:30 remaining in the second period, followed by F Travis Konecny (D Radko Gudas) only 53 seconds later to pull Philly back within a 3-2 deficit. Much to the delight of the home fans, RW Mark Stone (F Ryan Dzingel and Karlsson) was able to bury a backhanded shot with 2:23 remaining in the period to reclaim a two-goal advantage for the Senators going into the second intermission.

    With 9:27 remaining in regulation, F Tom Pyatt (C Nate Thompson and Pageau) scored what proved to be a very important goal. Though Pageau earned the hockey assist, this breakaway goal was almost entirely set up by Thompson. After receiving Pageau’s pass at his own blue line, Thompson immediately connected with Pyatt in the neutral zone, who was screaming up the far boards towards G Michal Neuvirth. With no help, D Shayne Gostisbehere was forced to eliminate the passing lane between Pyatt and Thompson, leaving the forward in a one-on-one situation with the netminder. Pyatt didn’t miss on that opportunity, beating Neuvirth with a pinger off the right post

    Pyatt’s tally ended up converting from a brace into the game-winner due to the tremendous comeback effort by the Flyers. With 4:42 remaining in regulation, Provorov (Konecny and Couturier) buried a slapper on G Craig Anderson to pull Philadelphia back within a 5-3 deficit. The comeback became even more realistic when Couturier (Gostisbehere and Voracek) scored a deflection to set the score at 5-4 with 106 seconds remaining before the final horn. But, even with Neuvirth pulled for the extra attacker, the Flyers could not find a leveling goal.

    Anderson earned the victory after saving 36-of-40 shots faced (.9 save percentage), leaving the loss to Neuvirth, who saved 23-of-28 (.821).

    Home teams in the DtFR Game of the Day are a win away from the business week streak, as they’ve won the last four games. That elevates their record to 14-6-4, which is a solid 10 points better than the visitors.

  • October 24 – Day 21 – It’s Showtime in Las Vegas

    It’s been a few days since we’ve had a busy schedule, but Tuesday fixes that by bringing us almost a dozen contests.

    As it usually does, tonight’s action finds its start at 7 p.m. with four puck-drops (Arizona at the New York Islanders, Anaheim at Philadelphia, Edmonton at Pittsburgh [SN1/TVAS] and Tampa Bay at Carolina), with another set of three games (Detroit at Buffalo [NBCSN], Florida at Montréal [RDS/TSN2] and Los Angeles at Ottawa [RDSI]) waiting half an hour before getting underway. 8 p.m. brings with the start of two more games (Calgary at Nashville and Vancouver at Minnesota), trailed by Dallas at Colorado at 9 p.m. and Chicago at Vegas an hour after that to close out the evening. All times Eastern.

    It’s hard to believe, but W Thomas Vanek hasn’t been back to Xcel Energy Center since being bought out following the 2015-’16 season. Though it might be fun to see him take on his former team, I’m actually more interested in tonight’s activities in the desert.

     

     

     

     

     

    These two teams that are both second place in their respective divisions have become DtFR Game of the Day series favorites, as they’ve been featured a total of six times before tonight. So, when the Blackhawks make their first-ever trip to Sin City, what else are we supposed to do besides focus on their matchup?

    Things have changed quite a lot for the 6-1-0 Golden Knights since the last time we featured them when they opened T-Mobile Arena to a 5-2 victory. For starters, they’ve actually lost a game (darn those Red Wings and their sneaky offense), but more importantly, it was that contest that cost them their starting goaltender.

    G Marc-Andre Fleury was off to an impressive start with his new team, managing a .925 save percentage and 2.48 GAA through four games played. But in that Detroit game, he suffered a concussion that has sent him to injured reserve with no timetable for his return.

    That’s pretty disappointing for an expansion team that’s proving everybody wrong. But, the story unfortunately takes another turn for the worse.

    In the Golden Knights’ last game played on Saturday against the Blues, G Malcolm Subban – who himself was also off to a solid start to the season, managing a .936 save percentage and 2.06 GAA after being waived by Boston at the start of the year – suffered a lower-body injury that has also landed him on injured reserve for the next four weeks.

    To put it lightly, things could be going a lot better in the Knights’ crease. Who is next up for a franchise that didn’t have a single player four months ago?

    I’d put my money on G Oscar Dansk, who I expect will be making his first-ever NHL start tonight. He was the one who completed the Blues game for Subban. His career had a rough start, as the first shot he faced was a D Alex Pietrangelo game-tying slap shot, but he quickly rebounded to save the remaining 10 shots he faced in that game to win it in overtime.

    But here’s the problem for Dansk: the Blues’ offense is nowhere near as successful as Chicago’s. Though the Hawks fire only a 10th-fewest 30.7 shots per game, they’re pretty accurate with those attempts, scoring a seventh-best 3.56 goals per game.

    At the forefront of that attack is none other than Showtime himself, F Patrick Kane. Though he hasn’t scored the most goals on Chicago’s roster (that honor belongs to W Brandon Saad, who’s managed six in nine games played), his 4-7-11 totals are certainly best on the team.

    And to think Kane, W Ryan Hartman and C Nick Schmaltz only play on the Hawks’ second line. There’s a whole ‘nother line of scoring studs Dansk has to worry about. With the likes of C Jonathan Toews and his 3-5-8 totals leading that charge, Dansk may just fall asleep in his crease at the completion of this game out of sheer exhaustion.

    Assuming Dansk can hold his own, we’d be remiss not to at least discuss the play of G Corey Crawford. He’s been nothing short of exceptional, as his .945 save percentage and 1.86 GAA are both best in the league among netminders with at least four starts. If W James Neal (6-2-8 totals), W Reilly Smith (2-5-7) and co. can manage to get past him, they’ll deserve every bit of praise heaped on them.

    Goaltending and clutch scoring have been the main reasons the Golden Knights have found success so far this season. Though it’s no fault of 23-year-old Dansk, he’s no Subban – much less Fleury. Upsets happen all over this league, but I think the Blackhawks will be very disappointed if they don’t depart Fabulous Las Vegas with two points in hand.

    Scoring a goal per period was the plan for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and they executed it to a T to beat the Los Angeles Kings 3-2 at the Air Canada Centre in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    The first period’s goal was struck 5:46 into the game from the unlikeliest of sources. Scoring his first of the season, W Matt Martin (D Roman Polak and First Star of the Game F Mitch Marner) buried a slap shot on G Jonathan Quick to give Toronto a lead it would not yield.

    A power play wrist shot from C Tyler Bozak (LW James van Riemsdyk and Marner) with 5:16 remaining in the second period doubled the Leafs’ advantage to 2-0, but F Adrian Kempe (F Trevor Lewis and D Drew Doughty) pulled the Kings back within a goal 58 seconds later with a wrister of his own.

    At the 2:54 mark of the final period, F Patrick Marleau (D Morgan Rielly and C Nazem Kadri) found what proved to be the Maple Leafs’ winning goal. Unable to corral a centering pass from Marleau in front of Quick’s crease, Kadri collected the loose puck in the far corner and sent it to Rielly at the point. From there, the blue liner one-timed a snapper well above the crossbar, but Marleau was there to deflect the offering past Quick’s right shoulder and into the net.

    Third Star F Trevor Lewis found the back of Second Star G Frederik Andersen‘s net with 7:41 remaining in regulation with a backhanded shot, but Los Angeles could not find a leveling goal in the remaining time.

    Andersen earned the victory after saving 36-of-38 shots faced (.947 save percentage), leaving the loss to Quick, who saved 30-of-33 (.909).

    Toronto’s home win snaps a four-game winning streak by road teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series. The hosts now have an 11-6-4 record that is four points better than the roadies.

  • October 23 – Day 20 – There will be goals

    Another Monday, another start to the work week. It’s the same for hockey players, which is good for us; there’s nothing better than sitting back and taking in a game after a day’s work.

    For those planning on doing just that this evening, you’ll have to games to choose from – both dropping the puck at 7 p.m. Eastern time. It’s two West vs. East matchups, as Los Angeles makes its annual trip to Toronto (TVAS) and San Jose takes on the New York Rangers (NHLN/SN).

    With the Rangers and Sharks both off to slow starts this season, we have to turn our attention to the Air Canada Centre.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    When two of the current top-five teams in the league square off, it’s must-watch TV.

    If it’s possible to be hotter than a 6-0-1 record indicates, the Kings have discovered how as they’re riding a four-game winning streak coming into tonight’s game.

    Los Angeles has a long history of being a defensively-minded club, and this year is no different. Allowing an average of only two goals against-per-game, LA might as well be playing with the Great Wall of China in front of its net.

    That wall has a name though, and it’s G Jonathan Quick. Having already earned a 5-0-1 record, Quick has returned to the elite status every fan at the Staples Center was hoping for following his lower body injury, as he’s rocking an impressive .938 save percentage and 1.99 GAA, numbers that pale only in comparison to Chicago’s G Corey Crawford (.945, 1.86).

    To continue my analogy (because why not?), the wall alone was not expected to be the nation’s lone defender. Similarly, the Kings don’t rely only on Quick, as their defense is also 13th-best in the NHL in the shots-against category, allowing only an average of 31.4 per game. Two defensemen that deserve a lot of the credit are Derek Forbort and Alec Martinez, as both have blocked 16 shots this season, and C Anze Kopitar leads the team with eight takeaways. Martinez’ effort has been particularly exemplary, as he’s amassed his shot blocks in only four games played.

    I need to admit something to you: I may have lied when I said this season has been no different in regards to the Kings’ defensive gusto. That part is true, but Los Angeles has also been one of the best offenses in the game, averaging 3.86 goals-per-game to rank third-best in the NHL.

    The top line – especially W Dustin Brown and Kopitar – has been nearly unstoppable in the Kings’ first seven games played. Brown and Kopitar have posted almost identical numbers en route to their 11-point efforts, as the captain has managed 6-5-11 totals while Brown has produced a 5-6-11 contribution.

    If the Maple Leafs want to win this game, their defense had better make a point of shutting those two down and instead take their chances with the bottom-nine.

    Playing decent defense shouldn’t be too much of a stretch for Toronto, which allows a 14th-fewest 32 shots against-per-game. Blocking 3.4 shots-per-game, D Nikita Zaitsev has been a mastermind at keeping pucks off G Frederik Andersen (he averages 3.4 blocks-per-game to lead the team), which has proven necessary given Andersen’s inconsistent play.

    5-2-0 Andersen has started all but one game for Toronto this season, and for good reason – he’s definitely better than G Curtis McElhinney. Then again, that’s not exactly all that hard to do, as McElhinney allowed three goals Wednesday to a Detroit team that looks to be trending in the wrong direction.

    Meanwhile, Andersen has managed only an .892 save percentage and 3.41 GAA, marking him the second-worst goaltender in the league with at least five starts to his credit.

    Maybe that explains Toronto’s (t)eighth-worst 3.5 goals against-per-game, huh?

    As you might guess with Toronto’s goaltending situation, there’s a lot of pressure on the offense to keep the Leafs competitive. Fortunately for them, they drafted that C Auston Matthews guy last year, who’s absolutely perfect for the job. Just like we all expected, the sophomore from Arizona has been among the best scorers in the league to start the season, as he’s already registered 7-5-12 totals in eight games.

    But what might be Matthews’ most important statistic coming into tonight’s game is his shooting percentage. He’s a managed a goal on 31.8 percent of his shots, which is best on the team among those that have fired the puck more than 10 times.

    Remember Quick’s godlike .938 save percentage? Goals will not be easily earned, meaning a pure shot like Matthews’ will be necessary to earn victory.

    Now’s the time to make a pick, which is very tough given the Maple Leafs’ solid 3-1-0 record at home. That being said, I have full faith in Quick and his offense to invade the Air Canada Centre and earn two points for the Kings.

    With a dominant three-goal second period, the Vancouver Canucks beat the Detroit Red Wings 4-1 at Little Caesars Arena in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    This contest remained scoreless until First Star of the Game LW Sven Baertschi (Third Star C Bo Horvat and RW Brock Boeser) buried a backhanded shot with 5:26 remaining remaining in the first period to give Vancouver a 1-0 lead. The Canucks almost took that advantage into the first intermission if not for a snap shot by W Anthony Mantha (F Gustav Nyquist and D Mike Green), buried with 92 seconds remaining in the frame.

    Since Mantha’s marker was the only goal Detroit could muster, W Derek Dorsett‘s (Horvat and D Derrick Pouliot) wrist shot 8:30 into the second period proved to be the Canucks’ game-winning goal.

    The play that led to this goal looks to be something Head Coach Travis Green has been running in practice, as the Canucks ran it to perfection. From his own defensive zone, Pouliot banked a blue line-to-blue line pass off the far boards to Horvat to set up Vancouver’s attack. As that was happening, Dorsett started streaking up the ice towards G Jimmy Howard‘s glove side. Almost immediately upon receiving Pouliot’s pass, Horvat sent a centering pass towards Dorsett, which he quickly put on net. Howard made the initial save with his left shoulder, but the puck bounced into the air and eventually rolled down his back into the goal.

    That was Dorsett’s fifth goal and sixth point of the year. After starting the season on the fourth line, he’s earned himself a promotion to a top-six position in the Canucks’ lineup and is certainly one of the most exciting stories in Vancouver.

    Baertschi (F Alexander Burmistrov) and Second Star RW Jake Virtanen (LW Daniel Sedin) provided Vancouver’s two insurance goals in the remaining time of the second period, and the Canucks limited the Red Wings to only six shots on goal in the third to ensure the victory.

    G Jacob Markstrom earned the victory after saving 20-of-21 shots faced (.952 save percentage), leaving the loss to Howard, who saved 33-of-37 (.892).

    In the last four games in the DtFR Game of the Day series, all of them have come back as wins for the road teams. With this run of success, visitors in the series have pulled within two points of the 10-6-4 hosts.

  • October 18 – Day 15 – Wednesdays are for rivalries

    Some Wednesdays feature rivalries, some don’t. Today is one of the former, as two of the three matchups on the schedules features clubs with a little bit more animosity towards each other than usual.

    One of those is Detroit at Toronto (SN1/SN360/TVAS), which drops the puck at 7:30 p.m., half an hour before Chicago at St. Louis (NBCSN). After those games are complete, both nations will turn their attention to Montréal at Los Angeles (NBCSN/RDS/TSN2), which drops the puck at 10:30 p.m. to close out the evening’s festivities. All times Eastern.

    Both the early games definitely attract my attention as some of the league’s fiercest rivalries, but which one gets the honor of being the DtFR Game of the Day?

     

    I’m big enough to admit that I picked this matchup because I’m a fan of one of the clubs involved, but I’m also going to stand by the fact that this is only St. Louis’ second time being featured this season.

    So there. Watch the game and be happy.

    These teams have certainly employed vastly different styles to find their early season success, but Chicago has certainly been the more impressive of the two. One word perfectly describes Head Coach Joel Quenneville‘s Blackhawks: dominant. Averaging 4.17 goals-per-game, Chicago is easily the best offense in the Western Conference and (t)third-best in the entire league.

    Of course, what would you expect from a team that features the likes of F Patrick Kane, W Brandon Saad and young standout W Ryan Hartman? All three have managed eight points already this season, but Saad has easily been the most impressive with his six goals. Not only does he pace the Hawks, but he has also scored the (t)third-most goals of any player in the NHL.

    But dominance, in my opinion, is a result of both ends of the ice – not just commanding one end. That’s where G Corey Crawford comes into play, who’s play has also been nothing short of clutch. His .96 save percentage is the best of any goaltender with more than one start, and the same can be said of his 1.39 GAA.

    Meanwhile, the Blues know all about solid play in net, as they allow an average of only 2.67 goals-per-game – the (t)10th-best effort in the league. Though his numbers pale in comparison to Crawford’s, G Jake Allen has posted a solid .917 save percentage and 2.96 GAA, which rank (t)16th and (t)20th in the league among netminders with at least two starts.

    Beyond that, the Notes are only average in a vast majority of their play. Their 20.8 percent success rate on the power play is only 14th-best (D Alex Pietrangelo and RW Vladimir Tarasenko co-lead the team with three power play points); the 80.8 percent penalty kill rate is 15th-best; and their 2.83 goals-per-game is (t)14th-worst (Pietrangelo and F Jaden Schwartz co-head the club with eight points, but Schwartz missed Monday’s practice with food poisoning).

    Average may beat a lot of clubs, but unfortunately for the Blue Notes, it probably won’t be able to touch what Chicago can throw at them. No matter how raucous the Scottrade Center crowd gets, I’m leaning towards the Hawks taking Game 1 of this nasty rivalry series.

    With a three-goal second period, the Nashville Predators dominated the Colorado Avalanche 4-1 in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    Since no goals were registered in the first frame, F Nathan MacKinnon‘s (D Tyson Barrie and RW Mikko Rantanen) power play deflection 4:09 into the second, his first goal of the season, gave the Avs a 1-0 lead.

    But then Nashville happened. The Predators leveled the game 2:58 after MacKinnon’s tally courtesy of a backhanded shot from First Star of the Game W Viktor Arvidsson (F Filip Forsberg and Third Star D Alexei Emelin), and then took the lead with Second Star D Roman Josi‘s (Arvidsson and Forsberg) game-winning five-on-three wrist shot with 6:30 remaining in the period.

    D P.K. Subban started with the puck at the far point before passing to Forsberg waiting at the far face-off dot. The forward started to drive on G Semyon Varlamov, but instead slid a crossing pass to Josi in the opposite face-off circle. Josi’s initial shot on goal was rejected by the netminder, so Arvidsson tried his best to wrangle the rebound to try to beat Varlamov again. Varlamov stood tall again, but he couldn’t fend of the third try, an elevated Josi wrister from the slot over the goalie’s left pad.

    But the Preds weren’t done, as F Colton Sissons (F Craig Smith and Josi) was able to bury his first goal of the season to set the score at 3-1 with 45 seconds before the second intermission. F Austin Watson (Emelin) finished Nashville’s scoring 4:08 into the third period with his first tally of the season.

    For those keeping track, that’s four different players that scored their first goal of the season in this game. That’s a decent number considering we just completed the second week of play.

    G Pekka Rinne earned the victory after saving 20-of-21 shots faced (.952 save percentage), leaving the loss to Varlamov, who saved 30-of-34 (.882).

    It’s another win for home teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series, improving their record to 9-5-1 – good enough for a five-point advantage over the visitors.

  • October 14 – Day 11 – Sweep, sweep revenge

    It’s another great day (well, night, technically speaking) in the world of hockey, as there’s a whopping 14 games on the schedule.

    With no matinees, we have to wait until 7 p.m. to get the action started. It turns out to be well worth the wait, as there’s six contests (Carolina at Winnipeg [CITY/SN1], Toronto at Montréal [CBC/NHLN/TVAS], St. Louis at Tampa Bay, New Jersey at the New York Rangers, Washington at Philadelphia and Florida at Pittsburgh) on tap with another pair (Colorado at Dallas and Columbus at Minnesota) an hour later. 8:30 p.m. marks the puck drop for Nashville at Chicago, followed half an hour later by Boston at Arizona, and then the West Coast gets involved with two games (Calgary at Vancouver [CITY/SN1] and Ottawa at Edmonton [CBC/TVAS]) at 10 p.m. and another couple (Buffalo at Los Angeles and the New York Islanders at San Jose) 30 minutes after. All times Eastern.

    There’s a good reason to watch almost every fixture on tap this evening. Here’s a few I’ve thought of…

    • Toronto at Montréal: This is way more than an Original Six rivalry.
    • New Jersey at New York: Speaking of rivalries… Battle of the Hudson River, anyone?
    • Washington at Philadelphia: Is there a team in Pennsylvania that doesn’t have a rivalry with the Capitals?
    • Nashville at Chicago: If anyone has forgotten the Predators made the Stanley Cup Finals last season, it’s definitely not the Hawks.
    • Calgary at Vancouver: It’s rivalry night in Western Canada.

    We’ve made an unfortunate habit of repeating teams rather quickly lately, but there’s one must-watch game that sticks out above the rest.

     

    Just in case you’ve forgotten, the Predators’ run to the finals began in Chicago, where they beat the Blackhawks in a tight 1-0 game. Then they won again, this time by a much more commanding 5-0.

    And then the series went to the Bridgestone Center, where the Preds won 3-2 in a tight Game 3 that required overtime. And, of course, Smashville completed the sweep with a dominating 4-1 victory in Game 4.

    But you knew all that.

    Though I needed to look up the scores to those games, I’ll bet G Corey Crawford, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and every other hockey player from the Windy City can recite all those numbers without blinking, and will be able to until they reach their graves.

    It’s that burning desire for revenge that makes this game so exciting. It’s that rare instance where, no matter what any coach says otherwise, what happened last year may actually have an impact on how tonight plays out.

    Scoring only three goals last postseason – including getting shutout twice – the Blackhawks will be expected to show no mercy this evening when they have the puck on their stick. Though the usual culprits of Kane and Toews are always important to defend especially well, Nashville will also have its hands full with prodigal son Brandon Saad and 23-year-old Ryan Hartman.

    Led by Hartman’s eight points (2-6-8 totals), those top four Blackhawks forwards have combined for 12 goals and 16 assists for 28 total points. Add in the fact that the other two players that complete the top two lines, Artem Anisimov and Richard Panik, are no slouches either and the Predators’ defense will certainly be busy.

    Similar to Chicago wanting to exact revenge, the Predators will try to use this game to really get back into the groove they found last postseason.

    It took Nashville a couple games to get their skates under them this season, as they started with an 0-2-0 record. But, since then, the Predators have won two-straight, most recently a 4-1 victory over Dallas Thursday.

    A year after their defense was all the rage, it’s been the Preds’ offensive prowess that has really stolen the limelight so far this season – even if a lot of that offense has come from a defenseman. Currently, both Filip Forsberg and P.K. Subban spearhead the team with six points apiece, more than enough to lead the club towards an 11th-best 2.9 goals-per-game.

    But it’s truly a full effort from the entire top line that is making this club tick right now. With a second line consisting of Scott Hartnell, Nick Bonino and Pontus Aberg (they’ve combined for only five points), the Forsberg-Ryan Johansen-Viktor Arvidson ensemble that has already managed 13 points is going to be expected to produce until the former builds more chemistry.

    There’s a lot more to this game than what’s on paper – unless of course you’re reading a recap from their playoff series last season. That being said, I feel pretty confident in picking the Blackhawks to take two points at home.

    The offensive powerhouse that is the Washington Capitals struck Newark in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day, as the Caps beat the New Jersey Devils 5-2.

    Both squads needed a 20 minute warmup to start the game as only one goal was scored. Unfortunately for the home fans, that goal was struck by Second Star of the Game T.J. Oshie (First Star Nicklas Backstrom), as he buried a snap shot with 5:11 remaining in the frame to give Washington a lead it would not yield.

    Following intermission, Alex Ovechkin (Backstrom and John Carlson) scored his NHL-leading ninth goal of the season with a power play wrist shot 8:01 after resuming play. Though Taylor Hall (Third Star Kyle Palmieri and Will Butcher) was able to get the Devils on the board with 3:32 remaining in the frame with a power play goal, neither of those tallies proved to be the biggest of the period.

    Instead, the Capitals were able to once again register a late-period goal, but this one proved even more important than the last: this one proved to be the game-winner. It was struck courtesy of Jakub Vrana (Devante Smith-Pelly and Evgeny Kuznetsov), his first of the season.

    The play started behind G Cory Schneider‘s net when D Andy Greene misplayed a pass from D Steven Santini. Kuznetsov collected “the loose biscuit,” as it was described by play-by-play announcer Steve Cangialosi, at the goal line before advancing it along the far boards toward the point. He passed to Smith-Pelly in the middle of the zone, who fired a shot towards Schneider. But, before the netminder could make play on the puck, Vrana deflected it five-hole with the shaft of his stick.

    Palmieri (Damon Severson and John Moore) did pull Jersey back within a goal 53 seconds into the third period, but Oshie (Backstrom and Kuznetsov) and Backstrom (Ovechkin and Oshie) both scored power play goals to quell any chance of a Devils comeback.

    G Braden Holtby earned the victory after saving 21-of-23 shots faced (.913 save percentage), leaving the loss to Schneider, who saved 23-of-28 (.821).

    With Washington’s victory, road teams in the DtFR Game of the Day have now pulled within two points of the 6-4-1 home clubs.

  • October 9 – Day Six – Goals on goals on goals

    Happy Columbus Day, if you’re into that sort of thing (yes, Blue Jackets fans, I assumed you would be). Even if you aren’t, I’ll bet you’re into the day off work you potentially have and afternoon hockey.

    That’s right, we have three matinees on tap this afternoon, with two (Colorado at Boston [SN1] and St. Louis at the New York Islanders) at 1 p.m. and New Jersey visiting Buffalo two hours later. Chicago at Toronto (NHLN) drops the puck at the usual time of 7 p.m., with Washington at Tampa Bay trailing half an hour later. 9 p.m. marks the beginning of Winnipeg at Edmonton, while tonight’s nightcap, Calgary at Anaheim, waits an hour before starting. All times Eastern.

    There’s some great games on the slate today, including an old-timey rivalry and a rematch from last year’s playoffs, but something tells me an Original Six matchup featuring the two best offenses to start the season should prove exceptionally exciting.

     

     

     

     

     

    I usually try to not repeat teams in the Game of the Day series early in the season, but its hard to avoid this explosive, star-studded matchup.

    That doesn’t even mention that this contest features the top clubs from their respective conferences once you go through all the NHL’s tiebreakers.

    If you like offense, this is the game for you. Both teams enter tonight’s game having scored 15 goals in two games played. That 7.5 goals-per-game average makes the Capitals’ five scores-per-game rate look pedestrian by comparison.

    Let’s start with the visiting Blackhawks.

    Their first action came Thursday night against the two-time reigning-champion Penguins. Chicago did not tremble at any of Pittsburgh’s accolades and instead took the Pens to the woodshed for a 10-1 beatdown. Two days later, the Hawks welcomed another strong Metropolitan Division team to town, only to show the Blue Jackets the door after beating them 5-1.

    It’s been a mix of established and budding stars heading the charge for the Hawks so far, as 2015-’16 Art Ross Trophy winner F Patrick Kane (2-4-6 totals) and sophomore W Ryan Hartman (1-5-6) both have a half-dozen points to their credit. Of course, we also can’t forget Chicago’s prodigal son W Brandon Saad and his 4-1-5 effort, including his even-strength hat trick to open the season.

    Hartman has arguably been the most pleasant surprise so far. The Hilton Head, S.C. native has been living every little boy’s dream having grown up a Hawks fan and playing on Kane’s second line. Last season, he posted 19-12-31 totals for his 76-game rookie campaign, but he looks well on his way to exceeding those numbers.

    Hartman is obviously not going to keep up the three points-per-game rate he’s currently sporting, but if he can continue learning and being a consistent weapon for Kane, Windy City natives will begin second-guessing the LW Artemi Panarin trade even less than they already are following Saad’s performance.

    All in all, the Blackhawks should provide the strongest test the Maple Leafs have faced so far in this young season.

    Meanwhile, depending how you look at it, Toronto’s offense has perhaps been even more dominant as the Leafs have yet to score less than seven goals in a game. They opened the NHL season with a 7-2 demonstration in Winnipeg, followed by a thrilling 8-5 victory at home against the Rangers Saturday.

    What has made the Leafs so dangerous in their first two games is that opposing defenses and goaltenders have no idea where the puck is coming from. Though C Nazem Kadri (2-2-4 totals) and C Auston Matthews (1-3-4) co-lead the squad with four points already in their accounts, seven other skaters already have three points this season – including newcomer F Patrick Marleau and his two-goal performance (both at even-strength, I might add) against the Jets.

    Of course, Marleau is best known for his 19 seasons in San Jose, but the Sharks lost out on their bid to resign the 38-year-old when he elected to sign a three-year, $6.25 million contract in Toronto. At first glance, it seemed General Manager Lou Lamoriello overpaid for a senior player coming off his third-consecutive season of declining offensive production, but – similar to Chicago’s situation with Hartman – if Marleau can keep posting points from Toronto’s third line, he should prove the shrinking collection of doubters wrong.

    Quick sidebar: During the preseason, I wrote about a team that uses its third line for depth scoring instead of the usual checking team. That squad is currently the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions. I don’t know if I’m quite ready to say yet that this Leafs team is destined to hoist some hardware, but a similar character could be forming in Hogtown.

    I’m of the opinion that two-time Jennings Trophy-winner G Corey Crawford (.968 save percentage) and Chicago’s defense is far superior to one-time Jennings recipient G Frederik Andersen (.903, 3.5 GAA) and Toronto’s blue line, so the Hawks should be able to escape the Air Canada Centre with two points.

    On the back of First Star of the Game G Henrik Lundqvist‘s 62nd regular-season shutout of his career, the New York Rangers were able to best the Montréal Canadiens 2-0 at Madison Square Garden in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    The game remained a scoreless draw for much of the first period until D Brady Skjei (W Michael Grabner and F J.T. Miller) “buried” what proved to be the game-winner on G Carey Price.

    It was a quick play off a face-off in New York’s offensive zone. Miller won the resumption of play, but it was Grabner that swatted the puck towards the near boards to Skjei. The defenseman advanced the puck along the wall to the end line before attempting a centering pass to Grabner at the top of the crease. At first glance, it appeared D Shea Weber had Grabner under wraps, but he instead proved to be the final one to touch the puck, as Skjei’s pass deflected off his right skate and into the net.

    After a second period devoid of goals for either team, the Habs brought their strongest offense in the third period when they fired 13 shots at Lundqvist’s net, but they couldn’t find a tying goal. Instead, it was Second Star C Mika Zibanejad (Third Star W Pavel Buchnevich and F Chris Kreider) that found the back of the net, setting the 2-0 final score with a wrist shot.

    Lundqvist earned the victory after saving all 34 shots-on-goal he faced, while Price was able to save only 23-of-25 (.92 save percentage) in defeat.

    Thanks to the Blueshirts finding their first victory of the season, home teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series now hold a one-point advantage over the roadies with a 3-2-1 record.

  • Numbers Game: 2017-18 Standings Projections

    Yes, it’s October.

    Yes, it’s too early to make a final standings projection, but I’m going to do it anyway using a pseudo-algorithm called Heart and Grit Gut Feeling 2.0 (combined with the standard Microsoft Excel forecasting formula).

    Gut Feeling 2.0 is better than just using the eye test because it combines actual numbers plugged into Microsoft Excel with the complete partial bias of whatever I feel like is the right record, number of points and/or anything shown below for all 31 teams in the NHL.

    But seriously, to keep this loosely based in mathematics, I’ve included a range of points that three separate models are indicating (scroll to the bottom), as well as what Gut Feeling 2.0 is telling us.

    2017-2018 Projected Final Standings

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. y-Boston Bruins, 101 points
    2. x-Montreal Canadiens, 99 points
    3. x-Tampa Bay Lightning, 98 points
    4. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 95 points
    5. Ottawa Senators, 93 points
    6. Buffalo Sabres, 90 points
    7. Florida Panthers, 82 points
    8. Detroit Red Wings, 80 points

    Predicting the final outcome across the Eastern Conference this year is a lot like playing the lottery– whether you pick your numbers or just do quick picks, your odds of winning are still far, far less than getting struck by lightning twice.

    In the Atlantic Division, the Boston Bruins barely beat out the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning for the regular season division title with 101 points over Montreal’s 99 points and Tampa’s 98 points based on the Gut Feeling 2.0 model. Of course, seeding in the Stanley Cup Playoffs more often than not means nothing. Just like winning the President’s Trophy doesn’t mean much unless you win the Cup.

    Given the parity of the Atlantic Division teams, it wouldn’t be surprising to see any of the top-four teams in this model switch places or grab the division crown. Based on expected final standings point-ranges alone, Tampa looks to rebound with ease, while Montreal maintains status quo.

    It’s a bit of a surprise, but the Ottawa Senators sit just on the outside looking in, though logic says otherwise. For one team to improve in the division (say, Tampa for example, or the Buffalo Sabres with a healthy, full-season of Jack Eichel), another team must lose. Five points in the final standings is the only difference between 2017-2018 and 2016-2017 for the Sens and ultimately it costs them a postseason appearance.

    But if any major injuries occur to teams ahead of the Senators or Sabres, then expect either Ottawa or Buffalo to be ready to take their place.

    When it comes to 2018 Stanley Cup Playoff success, you might want to consider cashing in on the Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs to at least make it to the Second Round.

    Metropolitan Division

    1. z-Pittsburgh Penguins, 107 points
    2. x-Washington Capitals, 106 points
    3. x-New York Rangers, 103 points
    4. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 102 points
    5. New York Islanders, 92 points
    6. Carolina Hurricanes, 92 points
    7. Philadelphia Flyers, 91 points
    8. New Jersey Devils, 84 points

    The 2017-2018 final standings in the Metropolitan Division look similar to the 2016-2017 final standings in the Metropolitan Division. This is no accident. The top teams, Pittsburgh, Washington and the New York Rangers, remain dominant in their regular season play. Even the Columbus Blue Jackets, despite a six-point setback from their franchise best 50-win, 108-point season last year, remain a competitive team that should cross the 100-point plateau for two-seasons in a row under John Tortorella’s guise.

    Whereas the Washington Capitals do not clinch the President’s Trophy in the 2017-2018 season and instead falter by 12 points compared to last season, the Carolina Hurricanes show improvement in their money-puck roster mentality, but ultimately the giants of the Metropolitan Divsion (the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins, to be specific) prove too much for them to handle this season, though a 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs run seems imminent.

    Somehow the New York Islanders and Philadelphia Flyers remain stagnant this season, but the New Jersey Devils make the largest leap in points (from 70 points in ’16-’17 to 84 points in ’17-’18) as the rest of the division evens out.

    Look for Pittsburgh to advance to the Second Round and yet another entertaining Rangers-Capitals matchup in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. y-Chicago Blackhawks, 102 points
    2. x-St. Louis Blues, 101 points
    3. x-Nashville Predators, 97 points
    4. x-Dallas Stars, 96 points
    5. x-Minnesota Wild, 95 points
    6. Winnipeg Jets, 87 points
    7. Colorado Avalanche, 82 points

    Look, the Dallas Stars have tremendous talent on their expected first line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov, but even with Ben Bishop as their starting goaltender the Stars aren’t the best team in the Central Division.

    Instead, the annual “how do they keep doing this all the time? oh, right, they have Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford still” Chicago Blackhawks will just come out on top of the St. Louis Blues who look to improve from last season with a reinforced offense (hello, Brayden Schenn) and more experience on the blue line.

    The Nashville Predators, in all their glory with four incredibly deep forward lines, the best defense (on paper) and an elite starting goalie in Pekka Rinne, surprisingly fall short of winning the division coming off of their 2017 Stanley Cup Final run. Nashville will be in better playoff position heading into the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, given they won’t be the last team to clinch in the Western Conference, and they should be destined for another Western Conference Finals run, at least.

    The Minnesota Wild are the winners of the consolation “hey the other division didn’t have four-quality playoff teams” prize and will clinch the second Western Conference wild card spot with 95 points in 2017-18– one season removed from a 49-25-8 record and 106 point, 2nd place finish in the Central Division.

    Finally, the Colorado Avalanche couldn’t possibly have a season worse than they did last season, though they’re still poised to finish behind the Winnipeg Jets for last place in the division.

    Pacific Division

    1. p-Edmonton Oilers, 112 points
    2. x-Anaheim Ducks, 109 points
    3. x-San Jose Sharks, 99 points
    4. Los Angeles Kings, 92 points
    5. Calgary Flames, 85 points
    6. Vancouver Canucks, 83 points
    7. Arizona Coyotes, 78 points
    8. Vegas Golden Knights, 72 points

    Gut Feeling 2.0 never lies and the numbers don’t lie either. The Edmonton Oilers will be the top team in the Pacific Division when all is said and done this season. Better yet, the Oilers will be this season’s President’s Trophy winners– something that hasn’t happened since the days of some guy wearing a jersey with the number “99” on the back of it skated around the ice.

    Other than Edmonton overtaking the Anaheim Ducks for first overall, there are virtually no changes in the Pacific Division standings. San Jose will knock at the door of a 100-point season for the third season in a row, only to fall a point short (for the second season in a row).

    While Los Angeles Kings fans may be disappointed this season, if anything, missing the playoffs for one more season should give them enough time to develop and recover from their offseason roster moves while GM Rob Blake figures out the reins and plans the path back to Stanley Cup glory.

    Things are coming together for the Arizona Coyotes. They won’t be a bad team; they’re just a victim of circumstance. Unfortunately, that circumstance dictates that it’s going to take one more season for the chemistry to work out as general manager, John Chayka, addresses the growing depth on offense (both in prospect development and with the addition of Derek Stepan this offseason), while building a stable core of defensemen and capable young goalies in Antti Raanta and Louis Domingue.

    Meanwhile the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames go through their own growing pains for another season.

    Luckily for the Vegas Golden Knights, there’s no pressure to play better than last season, mostly because this is their inaugural season, so it can’t be worse than before!

    Look for Edmonton to make noise in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, going as deep as the Western Conference Finals– at least. Likewise, the Sharks seem ready for a better fight in the postseason than last season.

    Plausible ranges in points based on three separate models (math done in Microsoft Excel alone– no Gut Feeling 2.0 added) for the 2017-2018 season:

    Atlantic Division

    Boston Bruins (94-101), Buffalo Sabres (67-84), Detroit Red Wings (86-101), Florida Panthers (84-92), Montreal Canadiens (93-99), Ottawa Senators (91-92), Tampa Bay Lightning (89-98), Toronto Maple Leafs (80-90)

    Metropolitan Division

    Carolina Hurricanes (81-87), Columbus Blue Jackets (84-92), New Jersey Devils (77-92), New York Islanders (84-97), New York Rangers (98-103), Philadelphia Flyers (90-92), Pittsburgh Penguins (105-108), Washington Capitals (102-119)

    Central Division

    Chicago Blackhawks (100-107), Colorado Avalanche (65-84), Dallas Stars (92-94), Minnesota Wild (93-97), Nashville Predators (94-97), St. Louis Blues (97-106), Winnipeg Jets (83-87)

    Pacific Division

    Anaheim Ducks (101-109), Arizona Coyotes (74-83), Calgary Flames (85-90), Edmonton Oilers (74-87), Los Angeles Kings (90-96), San Jose Sharks (99-104), Vancouver Canucks (72-95), Vegas Golden Knights (69-75)

  • Chicago Blackhawks 2017-2018 Season Preview

    imgresChicago Blackhawks

    50-23-9, 109 points, 1st in the Central Division

    Eliminated in the First Round by Nashville

    Additions: G Jean-Francois Berube, F Lance Bouma, F Laurent Dauphin, G Anton Forsberg, D Connor Murphy, D Jordan Oesterle, F Brandon Saad, F Patrick Sharp, F Tommy Wingels

    Subtractions: D Brian Campbell (retired), G Scott Darling (traded to CAR), F Andrew Desjardins (signed a PTO with NYR), D Dillon Fournier (retired), D Niklas Hjalmarsson (traded to ARI), G Lars Johansson (signed with CSKA Moscow, KHL), F Marcus Kruger (traded to VGK), F Pierre-Cedric Labrie (signed with NSH), D Shawn Lalonde (signed with Kölner Haie, DEL), F Michael Latta (signed with ARI), F Martin Lundberg (signed with Växjö Lakers HC, SHL), F Brandon Mashinter (signed with SJ), F Tyler Motte (traded to CBJ), D Johnny Oduya (signed with OTT), F Artemi Panarin (traded to CBJ), F Dennis Rasmussen (signed with ANA), D Trevor van Riemsdyk (claimed by VGK at the 2017 Expansion Draft)

    Still Unsigned: G Mac Carruth, F Kenton Helgesen, D Nolan Valleau

    Offseason Analysis: After being swept in the First Round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs by the Nashville Predators, the Chicago Blackhawks are turning the page by burning the playbook from the last few seasons. It’s not as much of an overreaction as the Florida Panthers this offseason, but it’s quite a change in the direction of the organization as a whole.

    If something feels much different this offseason than in 2010, 2013 and 2015 it’s because the Blackhawks didn’t win the Cup and made moves this offseason similar to when they did.

    They traded one of their star forwards. They traded a top-4 defenseman. They traded their backup goaltender. They navigated a tight cap situation. They still have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, but they won’t have Marian Hossa this season (Hossa is out for the season due to a skin condition caused by his equipment, if you recall).

    Brandon Saad returns to the Blackhawks in the biggest trade this offseason, in which two-time 70-plus point scorer, Artemi Panarin, was sent to the Columbus Blue Jackets. While Saad is a year younger than Panarin, he is no Bread Man– but at least he is under contract through the 2020-2021 season (whereas Panarin is set to become an unrestricted free agent following the 2018-2019 season).

    Chicago didn’t do themselves any major favors in terms of saving some salary in the immediate future concerning the Saad acquisition, but they did buy themselves at least a few million dollars to spend elsewhere between now and when Panarin’s contract would’ve run out with the Blackhawks in 2019.

    Then again, they cost themselves some scoring production between now and then, as Saad only put up 24-29-53 totals in 82 games last season compared to Panarin’s 31-43-74 totals in 82 games played.

    Fear not, if you’re a Columbus fan, because hopefully in two years you’ll still be able to afford your number one scorer and highest paid player (although Josh Anderson is still unsigned as of the writing of this post and the Blue Jackets only have about $8 million in cap space– on second thought, yeah, you’ll be fine).

    In addition to the expected drop in offensive production from Panarin to Saad, the Blackhawks will miss Hossa’s scoring ability this season (yes, even as a 38-year-old).

    Chicago will turn to 21-year-old, Nick Schmaltz, and 23-year-old, Ryan Hartman, to pickup where others have left off on offense and especially because the rest of the roster isn’t getting any younger (ten of their forwards on the roster currently are 25 or older).

    On defense, the Blackhawks are in search of a sixth defenseman and their next Trevor van Riemsdyk, given Brian Campbell’s retirement and the fact that van Riemsdyk was a victim of the Vegas Golden Knights expansion draft (and subsequent trade to the Carolina Hurricanes).

    Newcomer Connor Murphy is their youngest product on the blue line at 24-years-old. Michal Kempny and Michal Rozsival seek to anchor the defense while Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook remain the star attractions of Chicago’s shut-down pairings. Between Kempny, Murphy, Rozsival and the unknown, somebody’s going to have to emerge as the replacement for Niklas Hjalmarsson (traded to Arizona, in exchange for Murphy and forward, Laurent Dauphin) and van Riemsdyk.

    In goal, Corey Crawford returns as the starter, while Anton Forsberg and Jean-Francois Berube compete for the backup role. To the untrained scouting expert’s eye, both goalies can be dependable NHL backups, but Forsberg stands out more as a durable solution to the long term backup status goalie if Chicago is looking for one (hint: they are).

    Don’t let Forsberg’s 4.10 goals against average and .852 save percentage last season dissuade you. He only made one appearance in net for Columbus and still managed a career best 2.28 GAA and .926 SV% in 51 games played with the Cleveland Monsters (AHL) last season. It doesn’t hurt to give him more playing time in relief of Crawford and especially with Berube as a third option, as Forsberg can really begin to develop in an organization’s system that isn’t clogged with a two-time Vezina Trophy winner (Sergei Bobrovsky) and Joonas Korpisalo.

    Should he be called upon, Berube’s 3.42 GAA and .889 SV% in 14 games last season with the New York Islanders aren’t terrible, they’re just not great either. But again, there’s a reason why starting goalies play in more games than backup goalies.

    Offseason Grade: C-

    The Blackhawks made quite a splash this offseason by trading away Panarin, which isn’t the best look for a team that’s trying to remain a contender for a long time. Then again the salary cap exists and the return of Brandon Saad means Chicago will be able to get by in case the cap remains flat or in the event of a lockout for the duration of Saad’s contract.

    One thing’s for sure, the Blackhawks will need some retooling during the Kane and Toews era because all good things must come to an end– and that time looks like it might be now as they navigate the uncertainty of Hossa’s career, a new look on the blue line and a bunch of expendable forwards for the time being while they wait for prospects to develop.