Down the Frozen River

Tag: Connor Keith

  • Carolina Hurricanes 2014- 2015 Season Preview

    Connor Keith continues to display his hockey sense and analytic insight with his preview of the Carolina Hurricanes. This was written before final roster cuts were made, but the season kind of came along quickly and I kind of failed as an editor, posting things. But that shouldn’t make any of Connor’s analysis any less valuable! Enjoy.

    Carolina Hurricanes (36-35-11, seventh in division, 13th in conference)

    After missing the playoffs for the seventh time since hoisting the Stanley Cup in 2005-‘06, Peter Karmanos and new GM Ron Francis, promoted by virtue of Jim Rutherford leaving the Hurricanes organization & being hired by Pittsburgh, pulled the plug on almost the entire coaching staff. Since then, the Canes have hired Bill Peters to replace Kirk Muller. Steve Smith has been signed as an assistant coach & David Marcoux as a goaltending coach, replacing assistant coaches John MacLean & Dave Lewis.

    Bill Peters has yet to record a game in the NHL as a head coach, but he does have experience in head coaching. His first head coaching position was in the college ranks when he coached Lethbridge for three seasons (2002-’05). Spokane provided him his first professional head coaching job the following season, which he held for three seasons (2005-’08). In his first season with the Chiefs, he posted a 25-39-8 record, followed next season by a 36-28-8 record, worthy of a playoff spot in the WHL. The Chiefs fell in the first round to Everett, two games to four. His best season in Spokane was his last, as the Chiefs recorded a 50-15-7 record, a franchise record for wins in a season. This season witnessed the Chiefs hoisting both the Ed Chynoweth & Memorial Cups.

    Following the 2007-’08 season, Peters joined Rockford, where he found immediate success. In his first two seasons, the IceHogs qualified for the playoffs twice, but were swept in the first round each time (Milwaukee & Texas, respectively). His final season in Rockford was a disappointment as his team amassed a record of 38-33-9 for last place in the division, t-12 in conference.

    In 2011, Peters was hired by Detroit as an assistant coach, where he served for three seasons before being hired by Carolina.

    Luckily for the maturing Canes, the goalie with the most starts last season is returning in Anton Khudobin (36). Cam Ward, who had the second-most games played last season (30), may also return pending his preseason success. The Canes have also acquired Daniel Altshuller and Drew MacIntyre, bringing their goalie count to four. Based on moves made so far, Khudobin & Ward are still Carolina’s lead pair. Khudobin had a save percentage of 92.6% for the regular season (led Carolina goalies last season), averaging 2.3 goals against per game (also led team). Last season, Ward saved 89.8% of all shots (worst on team), averaging 3.06 goals against (worst on team). He may have strong competition for the backup spot from the two new acquisitions, especially from Macintyre.

    The Canes signed Drew Macintyre from the Toronto organization. He played in only two regular season games last year in the NHL for a 0-1-0 record. His save percentage in those games was 92.2% & he allowed 2.53 goals per game. He spent most of last season with the Marlies, who made it to the AHL playoffs. In the Marlies’ 14-game quest for the Calder Cup, he posted a 10-4 record, allowing only 2.08 goals a game with a save percentage of 94.1%. One-fifth (20%) of his playoff wins were shutouts.

    In addition, the Canes also signed 2012 draft pick Daniel Altshuller. He spent the entire season with the Oshawa Generals of the OHL, where he posted a 31-13-3 record in 52 games played. He recorded two shutouts (over 6% of wins were a result of a shutout) with a save percentage of 91.7%, allowing 2.56 goals per game. Oshawa made it to the playoffs, where Altshuller played 11 games for an 8-3 record. He only allowed 1.89 goals per playoff game for a save percentage of 93.1%, both greatly higher than his regular season numbers. This is the second time in three playoff seasons that he has been able to accomplish this feat, suggesting that he may perform well in the future under pressure.

    The Canes come into the season having lost some big names, most notably Drayson Bowman (signed with Montreal), Manny Malhotra (signed with Montreal), Tuomo Ruutu (traded to New Jersey in March).

    They lost two of the top 11 players with most regular season games with the Hurricanes last season in Drayson Bowman (70) & Manny Malhotra (69). The Canes are adding other players that can play most of a regular season, though, in Jay McClement (81, signed from Toronto), Victor Rask (76, 2011 draft pick), Justin Shugg (75, 2010 draft pick), Ben Holmstrom (75, signed from Philadelphia), Trevor Carrick (70, 2012 draft pick), Haydn Fleury (70, rookie), Michal Jordan (70, 2008 draft pick), & Brody Sutter (69, 2011 draft pick). These durable bodies should be able to create efficiency through consistent playing time together to continue to grow.

    The Canes are not bringing back two of their top 14 shot takers this year as Drayson Bowman (80) & Tuomo Ruutu (79) are not returning. These two players accounted for over 6% of the Hurricanes’ shots last regular season. They have added many players who more than make up for these lost numbers in Ben Holmstrom (168), Victor Rask (160), Justin Shugg (160), Danny Biega (114, 2010 draft pick), Michal Jordan (94), & Brody Sutter (89).

    Only 7% of last season’s goals will not show up to training camp this season as Manny Malhotra (seven) & Tuomo Ruutu (five) are with other teams. The Hurricanes have made a strong push for offense as they have hired multiple 10+ goal scorers from last season, including Brock McGinn (43, 2012 draft pick), Carter Sandlak (24, signed from Plymouth), Trevor Carrick (22), Victor Rask (16), Justin Shugg (16), Patrick Brown (15, undrafted free agent from Boston College), & Ben Holmstrom (13).

    The 12th leading assister from last season, Tuomo Ruutu (11) will not be with the Hurricanes this season. To more than make up for this, the Canes have signed Brock McGinn (42), Haydn Fleury (38), Trevor Carrick (29), Carter Sandlak (24), Victor Rask (23), Justin Shugg (22), Michal Jordan (21), Brody Sutter (20), Ben Holmstrom (19), Patrick Brown (15), Danny Biega (15), and Greg Nemisz (12, signed from Calgary).

    The only positive +/- player from last season not returning is Radek Dvorak (three, led defensemen, unsigned free agent). To improve upon both the loss and the fact that the Canes only had one player with a number greater than five, Carolina has acquired Brock McGinn (46), Haydn Fleury (15), & Greg Nemisz (nine).

    The Hurricanes lost one of the top six penalty minute earners in Radek Dvorak (41). Sadly, the Canes picked up Ben Holmstrom (146), Trevor Carrick (117), Carter Sandlak (95), Rasmus Rissanen (91, 2009 draft pick), Keegan Lowe (86, 2011 draft pick), Haydn Fleury (46), & Brock McGinn (45). These players will need to continue to grow in their discipline to have a truly positive effect in Raleigh. New hire Greg Nemisz only served 13 minutes in the sin bin last season, which averaged out to almost 17 seconds per game. This will be a huge asset to keep the Canes from defending the power play.

    Present roster consists of 24 forwards, 15 defensemen, & four goalies (42 men).

  • Anaheim Ducks 2014- 2015 Season Preview

    The wonderful, Connor Keith, has joined the Down the Frozen River family, and shares his talented writing, insight, and analysis for everyone to enjoy. This was written before final roster cuts were made, but the season kind of came along quickly and I kind of failed as an editor, posting things. But that shouldn’t make any of Connor’s analysis any less valuable! Enjoy.

    Anaheim Ducks (54-20-8, won conference)

    After yet another early exit from the playoffs (fifth time kicked out in first or second round of playoffs since winning the Cup in the 2006-’07 season), Henry Samueli & reigning NHL General Manager of the Year Bob Murray intend to build on last year’s strong regular season & once again be the team to beat in Los Angeles. Although they’ve made many additions to stake this claim, the Ducks will need to circumvent the retirement of Saku Koivu & Teemu Selanne & find new leadership in the locker room.

    The only front office news to come out of Anaheim this season was the four-year contract extension signed by Murray in May. He made quick work of the expressed confidence from Samueli by signing two trades. On June 27, he agreed to terms with the Vancouver Canucks that Nick Bonino, Luca Sbisa, & two draft picks were to be sent up I-5 in return for Ryan Kesler & a pick in next year’s draft. Three days later, he sent two picks in next year’s draft to Tampa Bay in return for Nate Thompson.

    One of the major question marks for the Ducks is their goaltending. Jonas Hiller (29-13-7), who played in 50 regular season games last season (22 more than Frederik Andersen) between the pipes, is now playing for Calgary. Andersen (20-5-0) played in 28 games for the Ducks last, the most of the remaining goalies on the Anaheim staff (also lost Viktor Fasth to a trade in March with the Edmonton Oilers). The Ducks have since signed Ryan Faragher (20-9-4-1, played at St. Cloud State) to an entry-level contract, who played seven more games than Andersen last season, but in college. Based on all of this, I would assume that Andersen will be starting in the crease.

    The Ducks come into the season having lost two big names in Nick Bonino & Daniel Winnik (signed with Toronto).

    They lost only two of the top seven players with most regular season games with the Ducks last season in Nick Bonino (77) & Daniel Winnik (76) both playing 75+ regular season games last year. Additionally, they lost only two of the top 10 players with the most playoff games with the Ducks last season in Nick Bonino & Saku Koivu both playing in all 13 games. The Ducks are adding players that can play most of a regular season, though, in Nate Thompson (81), Louis Leblanc (78, signed from Montreal), & Ryan Kesler (77) who all played 77+ games last season.

    The Ducks are only losing one of their top four shot takers this year as Nick Bonino (159) joins Vancouver. He alone accounted for over 6% of the Ducks’ shots last regular season. Looking at only postseason numbers, two of the top five shot-takers are not returning, as Teemu Selanne (24) & Nick Bonino (22) are not returning. These shooters accounted for over 13% of the shots taken in the postseason.

    Over 15% of last season’s goals will not show up to training camp this season as Nick Bonino (22) & Mathieu Perrault (18) are with other teams. The Ducks have added Nick Ritchie (39), Ryan Kesler (25), & Shea Theodore (22) to more than make up for the missing goals.

    Three of the leading six assisters will not be with the Ducks this season as Nick Bonino (27), Mathieu Perrault (25, signed with Winnipeg), & Daniel Winnik (24) are not returning. To take their vacant spots, the Ducks have signed Shea Theodore (57, drafted last season), Kenton Helgesen (41, drafted last season), & Nick Ritchie (35, drafted this season). These new additions have the potential to greatly exceed the numbers of the players they are replacing based on their stats from last season in lower leagues & could have a strong influence on the already potent Anaheim offense.

    Only one of the top five +/- guys in the regular season have been lost in Dustin Penner (22, traded to Washington in March). With him, the Ducks also lost two of the positive +/- players during the playoffs. Nick Bonino (3) & Daniel Winnik (1) were two of only five Ducks to post a number higher than zero for the 13 playoff games. To make up for these lost numbers, Anaheim has signed Kenton Helgesen (31). His regular season statistics greatly exceed Penner’s, albeit in a lower league, & Anaheim hopes that he continues his growth in the Honda Center.

    The Ducks lost two of their top seven penalty minute earners in Saku Koivu (46) & Luca Sbisa (43). Sadly, the Ducks picked up Nick Ritchie (136), John Kurtz (112, played in Norfolk last two seasons), Clayton Stoner (84, signed from Minnesota), Ryan Kesler (81), Andrew O’Brien (74, drafted in 2012), Christopher Wagner (68, drafted in 2010), Louis Leblanc (67), Kenton Helgesen (67), Joseph Cramarossa (59, drafted in 2011), & Max Friberg (55, drafted in 2011). This is one of the main spots where Anaheim lost a lot of ground. The new players, especially the young guys, will need to refine their discipline from taking so many penalty minutes, or Anaheim’s defense will be too exhausted to get back to the dressing rooms between periods.

    Present roster consists of 27 forwards, 15 defensemen, & six goalies (48 men).