Tag: Colby Kephart

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #3 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 Recap, Round 2 Outlook, and More

    All three analysts present their thoughts on each series from the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs and predict the outcomes of the second round. We also talk goalies and the top five picks in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. After a week off from the podcast, we are extremely proud to bring you our best yet.

    Remember you can always contribute to the discussion using #AskDownTheFrozenRiver on Twitter and we’ll look at your comments, answer your questions, and read some great responses on future podcasts!

  • Colby’s Corner- The NHL Entry Draft Lottery Edition

    Colby Kephart sounds off on the current NHL Entry Draft Lottery process. We want to know what your thoughts are. How would you format the NHL Draft Lottery system?

    2015 NHL Draft Lottery By: Colby Kephart

    Structure: This year they changed the lottery system, giving every team a chance to win the 1st overall pick. The team that finishes last this year in regular season standings is guaranteed the 1st or 2nd overall pick. That means there’s some hope for Buffalo. Buffalo has a 20% chance of winning the lottery and getting the 1st overall pick.

    Last year Buffalo, the last place team, had a 25% chance to get the 1st pick even though Buffalo lost (the lottery) and ended up with the second pick. This year’s odds were increased for the teams who almost made the playoffs. The team that just missed the playoffs now has a full 1% chance to get the 1st overall pick. The Arizona Coyotes finished 2nd to last this season and have a 13.5% chance of getting the 1st overall pick. The odds are as follows:

    1. Buffalo 20%
    2. Arizona 13.5%
    3. Edmonton 11.5%
    4. Toronto 9.5%
    5. Carolina 8.5%
    6. New Jersey 7.5%
    7. Philadelphia 6.5%
    8. Columbus 6%
    9. San Jose 5%
    10. Colorado 3.5%
    11. Florida 3%
    12. Dallas 2.5%
    13. Los Angeles 2%
    14. Boston 1%

    My opinion: As a Buffalo fan, I am already sick of the Draft Lottery. I was upset last year when Buffalo didn’t get the 1st overall pick and now the NHL lowers the last place teams’s odds- this is crap. They would decide to do this when the next franchise changer comes along in Connor McDavid. I’m glad they made it so we can’t fall out of the second overall pick, because then we have a chance for Jack Eichel.

    It is horrible when I run a draft simulator 10 times and I see teams like LA and Florida win the 1st overall pick. Both of those teams were eliminated with a few weeks left in the season. Buffalo was eliminated before it even started and you’re telling me LA can add Connor McDavid. COME ON!!!!! Pull yourself together NHL.

    They need to go back to when only the bottom 5 teams got a chance for 1st overall pick. How about a team who actually needs help? Yes, when I ran the simulator 10 times Buffalo got the first pick 3 times, but if tomorrow turns out differently and Buffalo doesn’t end up with the 1st overall pick. I will be one pissed off fan.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast- Playoffs(!?!) and Front Office Movement

    This week on our podcast, Colby Kephart returns and Connor Keith debuts, as we discuss the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs and offer some speculation on management maneuvers in Boston, Buffalo, and Toronto. Be sure to check back this weekend as Colby will provide a written commentary on the NHL Entry Draft Lottery selection process overall. After the Lottery is determined, I will make a revised mock NHL Entry Draft and will continue to edit it as the 2015 Draft this June in Florida draws near. In the meantime, yes, we will continue to work on improving the quality of our audio for podcasts.

    Take a listen and let us know what you think. We’d love to hear from you and see what you have to say. Have a question you want answered? Tweet to @DtFrozenRiver and use #AskDowntheFrozenRiver. We’d love to talk about what you want to talk about sometime.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast- Playoff Preview, Early Draft Preview, Frozen Four Outlook

    Presenting Down the Frozen River’s first ever podcast! Colby and I discuss a preview of who’s in and who’s out for the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs, an early look at this year’s NHL Entry Draft, and last but not least a prediction of the Frozen Four outcome.

    Take a listen and let us know what you think. We’d love to hear from you and see what you have to say. Have a question you want answered? Tweet to @DtFrozenRiver and use #AskDowntheFrozenRiver. We’d love to talk about what you want to talk about sometime.

  • Some Trade Deadline Analysis- Expert Analysis

    Colby Kephart takes a moment out of the week to give some analysis on how he thinks a few teams made out on their deadline deals.

    Trade Deadline Roundups

    By Colby Kephart

    Buffalo Sabres LogoBuffalo Sabres

    Cleaning house and praying for McDavid are all things the people in Buffalo are doing. Embrace the Tank, the competition to finish last place in the league might be given Buffalo now. Tim Murray said only a few people were off limits, and this was seen when veterans and small name players were traded.

    There were a few surprising moves, such as the trade with Montreal, which saw Buffalo giving up Brian Flynn and Torrey Mitchell for picks and prospect.

    Mitchell, when healthy, was having a good season and became a more consistent scorer than Matt Moulson or Brian Gionta.

    Flynn was a very small name at the start of season, but he was a hard worker for Buffalo and a very good penalty killer. Both of them are great role players and I could see one if not both players breaking into the Montreal roster.

    Buffalo fans saw yet another change in goal- ever since Ryan Miller left Buffalo, goaltending has been up for grabs. We saw both goalies leave, the first move sending Jhonas Enroth for Anders Lindback and a conditional 3rd round pick. This was brilliant move, for the operation tank, Lindback has struggled all year and will guarantee Buffalo a few more losses.

    The move I am happy with is sending Michal Neuvirth for Chad Johnson for conditional 3rd round pick. Chad Johnson signed a multiply year deal at the start of this season, meaning he will be back next season to be a backup to either a young goalie in our system or a free agent signing.

    The Sabres also saw a loss in experienced players with the moves of Chris Stewart, Drew Stafford, and Tyler Myers.B_HSHvkU0AM_N9V

    The first deal was the trade with Winnipeg before the deadline; I have mixed feeling about this move. Buffalo gave up a 1st round pick, Joel Armia, Brendan Lemieux, Drew Stafford, and Tyler Myers for Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian and Jason Kasdorf (prospect goalie). I love the addition of Bogosian, and Kane, but the Sabres gave up a lot for those players.

    Kane announced before the trade, he was done for the season due to an injury to his shoulder. That was the best part of the deal, Kane a highly skilled forward, won’t be adding wins the season due to his injury, pushing buffalo closer to McDavid.

    The second trade came late in the day of the deadline and sent Chris Stewart to Minnesota for a 2nd round pick. Everyone in Buffalo knew Chris Stewart was going to leave Buffalo, yet the only question was where and for what. I think Buffalo could’ve have gotten a little more from the deal, but it made sense to send another player to Minnesota or “little Buffalo” as I refer to it.

    (Tank Photo Credit: Kevin Gee @kgfrombeelo)

    Unknown-4Minnesota Wild

    Minnesota is trying to hold onto the 1st wildcard, so no surprise they added depth in both forwards and on the blue line. I am very impressed with the management in Minnesota; it was nice to see humility within the NHL. Minnesota is a special case; they have a strong mixture of youth players and have enough experience to keep winning into the playoffs.

    Minnesota made 3 deals on deadline day. The first deal was a great story; the deal brought Jordan Leopold home to his family in return for Justin Falk and 5th round pick. Jordan Leopold’s daughter, Jordyn, wrote a letter to Minnesota asking them to trade for the dad, who was in Columbus, but wasn’t playing much. Leopold was a top 6 defender in the past few years, but because of his age he had fallen out of the top 6, so the move to Minnesota could rebirth his career. Even if he becomes a depth defenseman at least he will be home with his kids.

    The next pick was the exchange in younger players the deal saw Zack Phillips to Boston for Jarred Knight. In this transaction, both team are hoping that relocation can spark these players and continue developing.

    The last deal saw the addition to the forwards with Chris Stewart coming over from Buffalo for a 2nd round pick. Chris Stewart can add a spark to Minnesota. We saw a lot of this in Buffalo, as he is not afraid to drop the gloves. Stewart can also add an explosion of offensive ability with fast skating and being strong with the puck. I think Minnesota will make the playoffs and give a top seed a run in the playoffs.

    UnknownNashville Predators

    Nashville was one of the biggest surprises of this season, sitting in first place in the whole league. They added James Neal and other pieces and experienced a huge step-up in younger players like Filip Forsberg. However could they have made a huge mistake by not adding at the deadline? Nashville made one trade before deadline day and the deal added depth both offensively and defensively.

    After Toronto Maple Leafs GM Dave Nonis determined no one was off limits and the big names must go, the deal saw Nashville send a 1st round pick, Olli Jokinen and Brendan Leipsic to Toronto for Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli. I love the addition of Cody Franson; he is only 27 years old and still has the ability to be a top 4 defender.

    Santorelli is a role player and can play his role well. He is a step up from Leipsic, but I think the Preds could’ve gotten more from the Maple Leafs. I understand giving up their 1st round pick assuming that they will have either the 29th or 30th overall pick in the draft.

    The issue Nashville has is a lack of playoff experience. If you look at teams who go far in the playoffs, they add big name players. The New York Rangers added Martin St. Louis and the Los Angeles Kings added Marian Gaborik last year, and even this year the Chicago Blackhawks added Antoine Vermette.

    No offense to Mike Santorelli, but he is not enough of an impact player to get 8-12 playoff goals or even getting to the double digits in points. I personally think Nashville will see an exit in either the 1st or the 2nd round because they didn’t add a big name.

    Unknown-3Toronto Maple Leafs

    Is the rebuild real in Toronto? I honestly don’t know any more after this deadline day. Toronto has struggled over the past few season to make the playoffs (or they see an early exit, like in 2013). That’s not the issue in my eyes.

    The issue to me is they never add players to change their current fate. So when GM Dave Nonis said they were going to clean house and trade big players like Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf, I saw change and big names on the move. Then they made four trades and only two on deadline day- I was shocked and saw same old Toronto missing a huge chance.

    The first deal was possibly the GM move of the year and saw David Clarkson go to Columbus for the injured Nathan Horton. Horton hasn’t played for months and Clarkson was a way overpaid forward, who wasn’t living up to his contract. So Horton gets put on the long term Injured reserve and his contract doesn’t completely count against the salary cap.

    The second deal before the deadline was with Nashville. This trade saw Toronto get a 1st round pick, Olli Jokinen, and Brendan Leipsic for Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli. This deal fit what Nonis had told the media and his team about cleaning out the roster and initiating the rebuild.

    This deal got them another 1st round pick and two players who will work hard. Jokinen then played a few games and was very unhappy with his new team. So the next deal still made sense to me at the deadline- Jokinen was traded to the Blues for Joakim Lindstrom and a conditional sixth round draft pick. This move was still smart, sending an unhappy veteran player for a young prospect and a pick.

    Now Detroit was very interested in Phaneuf and Toronto couldn’t make the deal happen. They were asking a lot for their captain, but in the long run wouldn’t let him go. This was confusing because in a rebuild you have to let some players go that you don’t want to, like what Buffalo did with Ryan Miller.

    The final deal made absolutely no sense to me at all. The deal was Korbinian Holzer to Anaheim for Eric Brewer and a 5th round pick. Toronto gave up a 27-year-old defenseman for a 35 year old man with a bigger contract. Holzer had less than 40 games played with this team, never really got a long run, and to just get rid of him is beyond me.

    The Maple Leafs essentially gave up a future kid that they could have developed (and used, badly). Toronto did not give up any big pieces like they said they would, they have the same base players and if changes aren’t made they will have the same disappointment at the end of each season.

  • Minnesota Wild 2014- 2015 Season Preview

    Colby Kephart joins Down the Frozen River as a contributing writer with his season preview for the Minnesota Wild. His short, but direct, writing style is sure to please those readers looking for something quick to cover all the bases. This was written before final roster cuts were made, but the season came along quickly and I kind of failed as an editor when it came to posting things in a timely manner. But that shouldn’t make any of Colby’s analysis any less valuable! Enjoy.

    Additions: LW Thomas Vanek, C Ryan Carter, D Stu Bickel.

    Subtractions: LW Matt Moulson, C Cody McCormick, D Clayton Stonner, LW Mike Rupp, LW Dany Heatley, G Ilya Bryzgalov.

    Expectation: After a good Playoff performance last year, I expect a similar season from the Wild. This year, however, one issue could be goaltending. Josh Harding’s suspended, Niklas Backstrom’s injury prone so that puts a lot of pressure on Darcy Kuemper. I would say defense could be an issue, but how can anyone say that when they have the almighty Ryan Suter. The offense should be really fun to watch this year. With the possible thought of reuniting old friends with Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville on the same line equals goals on goals. If this team can stay healthy, I’m thinking a 4 or 5 seed in West and maybe eliminating a top contender for the Cup.

  • Buffalo Sabres 2014- 2015 Season Preview

    Colby Kephart joins Down the Frozen River as a contributing writer with his season preview for the Buffalo Sabres. His short, but direct, writing style is sure to please those readers looking for something quick to cover all the bases. This was written before final roster cuts were made, but the season came along quickly and I kind of failed as an editor when it came to posting things in a timely manner. But that shouldn’t make any of Colby’s analysis any less valuable! Enjoy.

    Additions: D Josh Gorges, D Andrej Meszaros, D Andre Benoit, D Tyson Strachan, RW Brian Gionta, LW *Matt Moulson, C *Cody McCormick, C Sam Reinhart. *=Returned

    Subtractions: D Henrik Tallinder, D Jamie McBain, D Christian Ehrhoff, D Alex Sulzer, LW Ville Leino , LW Linus Omark, RW Matt D’Agostini.

    Expectation: The Sabres are very hopeful this season, the players are excited to start and I truly believe that they will try and push for the playoffs. This is contradictory to popular belief, because most people think they will tank again to have a chance for Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel. The New additions of veteran leadership to a very young team could make them a contender for playoffs. I’m not suggesting “Look for the Cup”, but getting a 6th-8th seed could be possible. There’s only two options for the Sabres Playoffs or tank anywhere in between and this season was a failure.