Down the Frozen River

Tag: Colby Cave

  • Athanasiou’s two-goal night lifts Red Wings over the Bruins, 3-2, in OT

    Detroit Red Wings forward Andreas Athanasiou scored the game-tying goal in the third period, then added his second goal of the night for the sudden death victory in overtime, 3-2, over the Boston Bruins Wednesday night at Little Caesars Arena.

    Jimmy Howard (7-6-2, 2.60 goals against average, .924 save percentage in 15 games played) made 34 saves on 36 shots against for a .944 SV% in the win for Detroit, while Tuukka Rask (4-4-2, 2.79 GAA, .909 SV% in 10 GP) got the start for the Bruins and picked up the loss, despite making 24 saves on 27 shots faced for an .889 SV%.

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    The Red Wings improved to 10-9-2 (22 points) on the season and leapfrogged the Ottawa Senators for 6th place in the Atlantic Division standings. Boston fell to 11-6-4 (26 points), but improved to 4th place in the Atlantic by virtue of having one game in-hand over the Montreal Canadiens.

    Wednesday night was the 300th meeting in Detroit between the two franchises, with the Bruins now holding an all-time record of 86-159-55 in Hockeytown, while the Red Wings are now 8-3-3 in their last 14 home games against Boston.

    Detroit is also 9-2-0 in their last 11 games. Boston is 5-4-2 in their last 11 games as a result of the loss.

    Patrice Bergeron missed his second straight game after being ruled out for at least four weeks with a sternoclavicular injury sustained in last Friday’s matchup on the road against the Dallas Stars. As a result, Colby Cave was recalled from the Providence Bruins (AHL) ahead of Wednesday’s game in Detroit.

    Bruce Cassidy made some minor adjustments to his lineup from Saturday’s game in Arizona against the Coyotes as Kevan Miller returned to action after missing the last 13 games with a hand injury.

    Anders Bjork played alongside David Krejci and David Pastrnak on the first line, with Brad Marchand, Joakim Nordstrom and Jake DeBrusk rounding out the top-six forwards.

    Danton Heinen, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson and Noel Acciari were left intact on the third line with Chris Wagner playing to the left of Sean Kuraly on the fourth line and David Backes on the right wing.

    Miller was paired with Matt Grzelcyk on the first defensive pair, while Torey Krug continued to play alongside Connor Clifton and Jeremy Lauzon was paired with Steven Kampfer.

    Jakub Zboril was a healthy scratch and ultimately reassigned to Providence during the first intermission.

    Among other scratches, Brandon Carlo (upper body), Cave (healthy scratch), John Moore (lower body), Zdeno Chara (lower body- left MCL), Bergeron (upper body), Urho Vaakanainen (concussion) and Charlie McAvoy (concussion) all missed Wednesday night’s action as well.

    Mike Green took the game’s only penalty at 13:22 of the first period for tripping Krejci.

    The Bruins were not able to convert on the ensuing power play and the game remained tied, 0-0, all the way into the first intermission.

    Both teams went to the dressing room with three giveaways each and Boston leading in shots on goal (12-4). Boston also held an advantage in blocked shots (3-2) and takeaways (3-1), while Detroit led in hits (12-6) and face-off win percentage (67-33). The Bruins were 0/1 on the power play in the game’s only skater advantage.

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    Forsbacka Karlsson (2) notched his second goal of his young NHL career after following up on a rebound that bounced off of Howard and a Detroit defender before Forsbacka Karlsson found the puck back on his stick and jammed it in at 4:08 of the second period.

    Boston led, 1-0, but only for about five minutes until Nick Jensen fired a shot from the point that Tyler Bertuzzi (6) redirected through Rask’s five-hole to tie the game, 1-1, while Kampfer failed to tie-up the Red Wings forward (and goal scorer) in front of the goal.

    Jensen (4) and Danny DeKeyser (3) had the assists on Bertuzzi’s goal at 9:48 of the second period.

    After 40 minutes of play, the Bruins outshot Detroit, 25-13, in a, 1-1, tie. The Red Wings led in blocked shots (7-6), takeaways (4-3), giveaways (10-8), hits (21-12) and face-off win% (51-49) after two periods.

    Early in the third period, Sean Kuraly threw the puck on goal as Chris Wagner (2) crashed the net and tabbed the garbage goal to give Boston a 2-1 lead at 6:45 of the third period. Kuraly (3) had the only assist on the goal.

    Athanasiou (8) followed up with a quick equalizer at 8:59 after Gustav Nyquist fired a shot up high, glove side, that Rask couldn’t get a full handle on, generating a rebound for Athanasiou’s quick reaction and goal.

    Nyquist (14) had the only assist and the game was tied, 2-2.

    Through 60 minutes of play, regulation was not enough, despite the Bruins leading the Red Wings in shots on goal (35-25). Detroit actually outshot Boston, 12-10, in the third period and held an advantage in just about every other statistical category, including blocked shots (11-6), giveaways (13-8), hits (29-16) and face-off win% (57-43).

    The Bruins, meanwhile, led in takeaways (6-4) entering overtime.

    Just 49 seconds into overtime, Athanasiou swooped in on a face-off in the attacking zone to steal the puck after Frans Nielsen took the draw to a stalemate.

    Athanasiou (9) then spun in front of the goal and scored from point blank to seal the victory, 3-2, for Detroit. Nielsen (11) had the only assist on the game-winning goal.

    At the final horn, the Bruins finished the night leading in shots on goal, 36-27, but trailing on the scoreboard, 3-2. Detroit finished Wednesday’s effort with the advantage in blocked shots (11-6), giveaways (14-8), hits (30-16) and face-off win% (60-40).

    Boston is now 1-4 in overtime this season as a result of the loss.

    The B’s and Red Wings will meet again in ten days back in Boston, then they won’t meet again this season until March 31, 2019 in Detroit.

    For now the Bruins head home after going 1-1-2 on a four-game road trip to face the Pittsburgh Penguins at TD Garden this Friday night. Puck drop is scheduled for a little after 7:30 p.m. ET with Boston playing the first of back-to-back games on back-to-back days at home and on the road in Montreal against the Canadiens on Saturday.

  • Boston Bruins 2018-19 Forecast Through 20 Games

    I’ve been away from the blog for a week (shouts road trips) and look what happens– the Boston Bruins are off to a 1-1-1 start on a four-game road trip, having lost in Colorado, 6-3, against the Avalanche on Nov. 14th, then losing in overtime, 1-0, to the Dallas Stars on Nov. 16th before beating the Arizona Coyotes, 2-1, on Nov. 17th thanks to goals from Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (his first career National Hockey League goal) and Jake DeBrusk (8)– so there’s a quick little recap for you, if you’ve been wondering where the last two games have been around here on the site.

    Oh and the Bruins have reached the quarter-mark of the regular season having completed 20 games, which means it’s time to update my forecasted stats for Boston.

    Really couldn’t have timed a quick trip outside of New England better than I did, thank you very much.

    In all seriousness, the Bruins lost Zdeno Chara due to injury in Colorado– leaving my personal road trip off to a poor taste– then Patrice Bergeron went down with an injury in Dallas while I helplessly streamed the radio broadcast from the NHL app in a hotel room.

    The Hockey Gods don’t believe in having fun outside of the sport.

    My neurotic bumblings were eased with the support of the “next man up” mentality in the dressing room and, well, Connor Clifton beating the crap out of a guy against the Stars in his first career NHL fight (in his NHL debut, nonetheless).

    That guy being Jason Spezza, who’s actually kind of a big deal and not a jerk(?).

    Anyway, Boston is 5th in the Atlantic Division through 20 games played this season with an 11-6-3 record (25 points), a plethora of injuries and a lackluster depth scoring situation.

    Through 20 games last season, the B’s were 9-7-4 (22 points) and 4th in the division.

    This season, 25 points in the Eastern Conference is good enough for the 2nd wild card spot (for now). Last season, 22 points wasn’t good enough to be ahead of the playoff cutoff line.

    If anything, they’re managing to weather the storm well, despite having more injuries to the roster this year than this time last November– but they’re still not showing signs of the dominant Eastern Conference team that we saw from January through March of last season.

    Peaking at the right time is of the utmost importance in sports.

    In high school, when you’re running the mile, it’s the second lap that’s the most important before you begin to drop the hammer on the third lap and go all out on the fourth lap. The second lap is make or break.

    For Braden Holtby and the Washington Capitals last season it meant having Holtby get off to a rocky start, lose his starting job for the first two games of the postseason, then go on to win the Stanley Cup by virtue of Holtby regaining his rhythm on top of the ridiculous depth scoring capabilities of guys like Devante Smith-Pelly and Brett Connolly.

    For the Bruins last season, it meant being in contention for the President’s Trophy hunt late into the regular season, falling short, beating the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games in the First Round, then being too worn down to even match the compete level of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Second Round.

    Boston was done in five games– 12 postseason games total.

    What all of this has to do with this season is that basically, the Bruins are a combination of the team on the ice last season and their mirror image below-average start to this season as Washington had last season.

    Their starting netminder has struggled, their scoring depth isn’t apparent and they’re clinging to a playoff berth.

    In other words, it’s too early to rule them out– as evidenced last season, Mike.

    But– and this the important part– the window for optimal peak performance is closing. The B’s are running the second lap of the mile in high school track right now, if you will.

    Another ten games of whatever has plagued them from October until now will leave them just barely on the outside of the postseason looking in like the Florida Panthers did last season with 96 points.

    They won’t set a PR (personal record), nor will they get a chance to compete for the Cup.

    Tuukka Rask is back from his personal leave of absence and kept Boston close in Dallas, despite allowing the game’s only goal– in overtime– with a defense that featured Torey Krug as the only regular, Matt Grzelcyk as the usual seventh defender turned regular for now and Steven Kampfer as the go-to blue liner when Chara, Brandon Carlo, Kevan Miller, Charlie McAvoy and John Moore are all out of the lineup.

    Plus Jakub Zboril and Clifton made their NHL debuts in Dallas, with Jeremy Lauzon continuing to see ice-time since Urho Vaakanainen was an emergency recall that sustained a concussion in his 2nd career game while in Ottawa.

    We haven’t seen what a full, well-rested, Bruins lineup is capable of yet so far this season.

    They spent training camp and part of the preseason with split squads and most of their NHL regulars in China, returned with jet-lag that slowed their legs down through the first couple of weeks of October, got banged up and since then have been waiting for the return of… everyone? Is that fair to say at this point?

    Without further ado, here’s an updated look at the forecasted stats for the Bruins roster. As always, keep in mind there are many variables that can or will change things as seen here due to injuries, being a healthy scratch, being assigned to the minors (or called up), sickness and general hot and cold streaks unbeknownst to the formulas of Microsoft Excel.

    My degree is in communication– not math.

    These forecasted stats are an utopian outlook on the remaining 62 games of the regular season for Boston. If a player exceeds the forecast, they’ve exceeded expectations. If a player matches the forecast, they’ve met expectations. If a player falls short, they were either hurt a lot or simply didn’t live up to expectations.

    Hockey is both quantifiably predictable because of its concrete stats (goals, assists, points– everything on the scoresheet each night) and certifiably unpredictable due to its collective nature and sheer puck luck.

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    Boston Bruins Forecast Through 20 Games (62 Games Remaining)

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    One player that’s been consistent all season long thus far is David Pastrnak. Brad Marchand‘s become more of a playmaker through the first 20 games while Pastrnak’s emerged as a superstar in the making– drawing comparisons to Jaromir Jagr from Czech Republic’s other legendary player, Petr Klima.

    Pastrnak’s success should land him his third consecutive season amassing 70 points or more, while also surpassing the 40-goal plateau for the first time in his career. In doing so, Pastrnak would be the first 40-goal scorer for the Bruins since Glen Murray had 44 goals in 2002-03.

    With Bergeron missing some games due to injury, David Krejci looks to reemerge as the leading assist collector for the B’s, reaching 46 expected assists this season.

    In the meantime, DeBrusk surpasses the 20-goal plateau and solidifies himself as a top-six forward, while Danton Heinen continues to grow as a candidate for top-six minutes in spite of Boston not having a guy like Artemi Panarin alongside Krejci and DeBrusk.

    On defense, Krug rebounds from missing time to a 43-point season, leading McAvoy (38 expected points) and crew in scoring from the point.

    Though Jaroslav Halak has won playing time with the hot hands in goal at the quarter-mark, Rask settles into his rhythm with an expected goals against average of 2.32 and an expected save percentage of .920 to backstop his team to perhaps one of the best 1-2 matchups in net– if not, 1A-1B– of the entire league.

    Halak, in the meantime, should cool to a 2.43 GAA and .919 SV%, but both numbers are highly valuable for backup goaltending duties especially if the Bruins can continue to get healthy and limit the shot attempts against.

    Healthy competition for playing time in the crease isn’t a bad thing if both goaltenders are performing thanks to a limited workload from their teammates.

    The next forecast review (through 40 games played) should determine whether or not the Bruins are serious playoff contenders or large-scale pretenders with a lot to lose in 2018-19.

  • Boston Bruins 2018-19 Projected Stats

    Well, technically it’s a forecast.

    In the coming days I’ll reveal what teams I’ll be forecasting/tracking all season long, so stay tuned because it’s about to get messier than ever before and I’m up for the challenge.

    The 2018-19 regular season gets underway Wednesday night in Washington, D.C. as the Boston Bruins visit the United States capital and defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals to kick off their own run to the Cup.*

    *Subject to change based on injuries and performance.

    As has been tradition for the last– oh I don’t know– several seasons now, here’s a look at some things to expect from each and every member of the Bruins roster that has played in at least one career NHL game. Keep in mind there are many variables that should be taken into account when everyone reads this in April and points and laughs.

    For starters, injuries, being a healthy scratch, being sent down or called up, sickness and general superstitions (which may or may not actually exist) disrupt a player’s season pretty well, as well as more things I won’t bother to mention.

    You’re either here to hear about how David Pastrnak is going to lead Boston in scoring this season or you’re wondering when the next post will appear and you can keep scrolling on by.

    Before we dive in– just for the record– I’d like to remind you all that my degree is in communication– not math– therefore anything that looks “out-of-whack” is Microsoft Excel’s fault. My expertise is in words, which…

    These forecasted stats come with an utopian view– as if nothing bad could ever happen and every player actually lived up to their projections– but of course some will pan out, some will exceed expectations and others will miss the mark entirely.

    Think of it as a suggested outcome for a sport that is highly unpredictable based on its collective nature and sheer puck luck.

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    Boston Bruins Forecast Through 0 Games (82 Games Remaining)

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    The Bruins 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs run came to a disappointing end in quick fashion against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Second Round, but the experience– both tangible and intangible– will be enough to a) leave everyone wanting more and b) leave a lot of players with something to prove.

    After entering 2017-18 to the tune of “[they’re] too young– too, too young” (shouts Mike Felger of 98.5 The Sports Hub), Boston turned a lot of eyes with a 50-win season, finishing 2nd in the Atlantic Division with 112 points– one point behind the Lightning. In fact, had Boston won their final game of the regular season against the Florida Panthers, they would’ve clinched the division title.

    This, of course, all after a First Round exit to the Ottawa Senators in 2017 following two straight postseason misses in 2015 and 2016.

    Now the Bruins enter Phase Three of General Manager Don Sweeney‘s masterplan– win a Cup. Now.

    First Sweeney retooled on-the-fly, beginning with the Milan Lucic and Dougie Hamilton trades at the 2015 Draft. Then he worked youth into the lineup of Claude Julien and Bruce Cassidy‘s teams. Finally, here we are, the third year of the secret plan to win a Cup in three years as most Bruins front office members determined they’d be at this point, three years ago.

    But enough about that, here’s a look at some of Boston’s expected top performers of 2018-19 before the puck even drops on the regular season.

    David Pastrnak leads the way in scoring with 71 points (33 goals, 38 assists) from one of the league’s best first lines, comprised of Pastrnak on the right side, Brad Marchand (32-32–64 expected totals) on the left and Patrice Bergeron (25-38–63 expected totals) down the middle.

    After injuries limited Bergeron to 64 games last season, the rejuvenated 33-year-old alternate captain in the Hub finally reaches back-to-back 60-point seasons since his pre-Randy Jones induced concussion days. Bergeron had 73 points in his sophomore NHL season (81 games) in 2005-06 and 70 points (77 games) in 2006-07.

    The Bruins expected second line of Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci and Ryan Donato doesn’t show any signs of slowing down as DeBrusk (19-32–51 expected totals) enters his sophomore season and Donato (34-27–61 expected totals) enters his first full season in the NHL.

    For the first time since the days of the Lucic-Krejci-Nathan Horton line, it seems the Bruins have finally found the right combination of skill, speed and scoring to compliment Krejci’s tremendous two-way playmaking abilities.

    Krejci’s 43 assists are expected to lead his team, provided he can stay healthy as the 32-year-old enters his 13th season with Boston since entering the league in 2006-07 (six games played).

    Meanwhile, Danton Heinen‘s 50 points (17 goals, 33 assists) are expected to be a key contributor to improved play from Sean Kuraly and David Backes on the third line.

    On defense, Charlie McAvoy steps up with 42 points on the season (nine goals, 33 assists) in his sophomore year– uninterrupted by injury or health scares.

    Despite missing the start of the regular season Torey Krug still found a way to put up 49 points (11 goals, 38 assists) from the blue line in his fourth consecutive season of 40 or more points. In fact, the only time Krug’s missed the 40-point plateau, he had 39 points in 2014-15 (his 2nd full-season, 78 games played).

    Zdeno Chara‘s 12-26–38 expected totals are sensational from a 41-year-old defender entering his 21st professional season in the National Hockey League. Meanwhile, Brandon Carlo‘s going to bounce-back from a sophomore slump to produce three goals and eight assists (11 points) in his junior season as a bottom-three blue liner, sharing duties with Krug, John Moore, Kevan Miller and Matt Grzelcyk on any given night.

    In goal, Tuukka Rask remains confident in his defense and in the scoring power of the forwards in front of him, as he cruises along with a 2.28 goals against average and .921 save percentage at (regular) season’s end in April.

    Jaroslav Halak stabilizes as a backup goaltender in a system that actually works with good, talented, young defenders that help limit his workload, Halak amasses a 2.49 GAA and .916 SV% in his appearances. His play provides Boston with a nearly 1A/1B option, but ultimately gives way to Rask down the stretch and into the playoffs.

    We’ll get into exactly how many games each goalie should realistically see playing time in the next forecast.

  • Boston Bruins 2018-19 Season Preview

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    Boston Bruins

    50-20-12, 112 points, 2nd in the Atlantic Division

    Lost in the Second Round to TB, 4-1

    Additions: D Cody Goloubef, G Jaroslav Halak, D Steven Kampfer (acquired from NYR), F Mark McNeill, D John Moore, F Joakim Nordstrom, F Chris Wagner

    Subtractions: F Kenny Agostino (signed with MTL), D Chris Breen (signed with Providence Bruins, AHL), D Tommy Cross (signed with CBJ), F Austin Czarnik (signed with CGY), F Brian Gionta (retired), F Justin Hickman (signed, Norway), D Nick Holden (signed with VGK), G Anton Khudobin (signed with DAL), D Adam McQuaid (traded to NYR), F Riley Nash (signed with CBJ), D Paul Postma (signed, KHL), F Tim Schaller (signed with VAN), F Tommy Wingels (signed, Switzerland)

    Still Unsigned: F Rick Nash

    Re-signed: F Anton Blidh, F Colby Cave, F Sean Kuraly

    Offseason Analysis: My fellow hearty New Englanders, we’ve reached the third year of Boston Bruins General Manager Don Sweeney‘s secret three-year Cup masterplan. This is the year– it’s make or break. Live free or die Do or die.

    Why? Because Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, Danton Heinen and Ryan Donato are all pending-RFAs at season’s end with about $16.500 million to spend next offseason– wait, actually, that’s not that bad. It’s tricky, tedious stuff, but manageable if they do it right (Sweeney’s not the last guy, so…?).

    Considering David Krejci ($7.250 million cap hit through the 2020-21 season), David Backes ($6.000 million cap hit through 2020-21) and for some reason Torey Krug ($5.250 million cap hit through 2019-20) have all been the topic of trade rumors this offseason, Sweeney will likely end up with well over $20.000 million to work with for the 2019-20 roster.

    Oh and 41-year-old ageless wonder and captain, Zdeno Chara‘s $5.000 million cap hit comes off the books after this season, but as long as he’s still trucking, he’ll be in a spoked-B sweater until he retires. (P.S. That’s right, Jaromir Jagr, I’m going with Chara as the new ageless wonder, at least in the National Hockey League.)

    But this? This is 2018-19.

    Gone are Tim Schaller and Riley Nash, two bottom-six forwards who– let’s be honest– you didn’t think would have the kinds of seasons they had in 2017-18.

    I’ve already gone over this plenty of times this offseason on the podcast and in writing, but Schaller legitimized himself as a third liner at best (and rightfully earned his new contract with the Vancouver Canucks), while Nash had a career-high 41-point season at 29-years-old– can that ever be repeated on his three-year deal with the Columbus Blue Jackets?

    Maybe at least once, but not at the price the Bruins could afford with a plethora of youth needing renewals in the next couple of offseasons (oh and coming for roster spots too).

    Gone as well are Anton Khudobin and Nick Holden– last season’s backup goaltender and depth piece acquisition on the blue line in February.

    In are Chris Wagner, Joakim Nordstrom and whoever makes the roster from Providence this season. John Moore’s new on defense too– he signed a 5-year, $2.750 million per season, contract on July 1st and as a result, became Adam McQuaid’s de facto replacement turned actual-facto (I’m making that a thing) replacement after McQuaid was shipped off to the New York Rangers on September 11th.

    The thought process is simple with Wagner and Nordstrom.

    Wagner likes to hit and Nordstrom’s coming in exactly like Riley Nash did two years ago. He’s a durable penalty-killer signed at $1.000 million AAV for the next two seasons. Low risk, high reward (as long as he reaches his goals).

    Jarolsav Halak’s in town as the backup goaltender for the next two seasons with a cap hit of $2.750 million. Head coach Bruce Cassidy almost has a 1A, 1B option in goal with Halak’s previous starting goaltender experience, though he’ll likely see about 30 games this season to Tuukka Rask‘s 50-plus starts. Both goaltenders will be right in their sweet-spot.

    Remember Steven Kampfer? The 2011 Stanley Cup champion doesn’t have his name on the Cup (he only played 38 games in 2010-11), but he’s back in black-and-gold as part of the return in the McQuaid transaction with New York.

    Kampfer’s signed through this season at $650,000 and will likely be utilized as an emergency recall from the Providence Bruins, unless Cassidy doesn’t mind carrying eight defenders (with Matt Grzelcyk already as the seventh defenseman). He’ll wear No. 44 this time around with Boston, as Krug is wearing his old No. 47.

    Fun fact, Krug wore No. 44 at Michigan State, but Dennis Seidenberg was already wearing that number when Krug signed as an undrafted free agent with the Bruins in March 2012.

    The Rangers also gave up a 4th round pick and a conditional 7th round pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, which could come in handy at the trade deadline as extra pieces in any Cup or bust making moves Sweeney might have up his sleeve.

    Also departed this offseason are Paul Postma (remember him?), Tommy Wingels (off to go explore the Swiss Alps), Brian Gionta (retired as a Sabre, technically) and Austin Czarnik (actually living up in Calgary with the Flames after the Bruins ran out of space didn’t tender a qualifying offer to at least feign interest in prolonging their relationship).

    Plus, Rick Nash is still undecided about coming back to play. Should he do so, Boston has about $5.060 million in cap space to spend on what would undoubtedly be his last chance at a Cup– if last season’s disappointing, concussion-filled, end to a season wasn’t already his last.

    Good on Rick Nash either way– if he decides to hang up the skates, nobody can blame him for taking his health seriously. If he waits it out until February or so and is 100% ready-to-go, then let him have a shot at going out the way he wants to– on his own terms.

    The 50-20-12, 112-point season Bruins we saw last year in Boston have a lot of pressure this season. A lot more is expected heading into 2018-19 than was expected heading into 2017-18, but it’s a good place to be in. Not to mention Cassidy is the right man behind the bench to get the job done.

    The time is now.

    Offseason Grade: C+

    Despite groans from the fanbase, right or wrong, the Bruins had a slightly above average offseason. Boston placed an emphasis on their youth when Sweeney came in and retooled the prospect pool, so they’ve stuck with the plan.

    They didn’t overspend, given John Moore’s potential as a quality top-four defender at precisely what Adam McQuaid (a bottom-pair blue liner) was making. They didn’t land John Tavares or Ilya Kovalchuk this offseason, but the fact they were even in the conversation lends them some serious credibility as a contender.

    In order to be enlightened and crowned champion, first you must climb a seemingly impossible mountain. This team has those expectations and it all starts from within.

  • 2018 Offseason Preview: Boston Bruins

    Our offseason previews for all 31 National Hockey League teams continues with the Boston Bruins and their outlook for the summer.

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    The Boston Bruins are ahead of schedule. They weren’t supposed to finish 2nd in the Atlantic Division this season according to most experts. They weren’t supposed to get 50 wins or 112 points, but the 50-20-12 record 2017-18 Bruins made it all the way to the Second Round against the Tampa Bay Lightning after defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games.

    Boston won Game 1.

    Then it all came to a screeching halt, the Bruins lost four straight and were eliminated.

    But fear not, for Bruce Cassidy‘s system is working and General Manager Don Sweeney has a plan. They weren’t supposed to be this good, this soon, but it all fits the bill of winning the Cup within Cassidy’s first three years at a time when Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy, Danton Heinen and Co. emerge as the future core behind Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Zdeno Chara.

    For the entire roster, it was just one more lesson in experience. The postseason is an entirely different animal from regular season action.

    2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Sweeney traded away Boston’s first round pick in the 2018 Draft to the New York Rangers as part of the Ryan Spooner–Rick Nash blockbuster trade prior to the deadline in February.

    Since then, the Bruins GM has indicated he’d like to get in on the deep first round action if he can, amid speculation that Boston is in the running for Ilya Kovalchuk, David Backes could be traded and more.

    Pending free agents

    Boston has almost $7.500 million in cap space available currently with the cap ceiling expected to rise perhaps by as much as $4.000 or $5.000 million, Sweeney still cannot afford to hand out long term contracts with a lot of value willy-nilly.

    He did, however, just re-sign defender Matt Grzelcyk to a cap friendly two-year, $2.800 million ($1.400 million AAV) extension late last week and no it does not mean that Torey Krug is going to be traded. Signing 2017 first round pick, Urho Vaakanainen to his maximum term, maximum value entry-level contract doesn’t mean Krug is gone either– let alone that Vaakanainen will be on the NHL roster this October.

    The Finnish blueliner has to really earn a spot on the Bruins defense this fall. Otherwise things are just going as planned with Vaakanainen’s development and he’ll be fine in Providence (AHL) for a season (at most).

    Pending-UFAs Brian Gionta, 39, Kenny Agostino, 26, and Paul Postma, 29, already know they won’t be back in black-and-gold next season, leaving Riley Nash, 29, Tommy Wingels, 30, Rick Nash, 34, and Tim Schaller, 27 as the only pending UFA skaters on the NHL roster (ignoring Austin Czarnik, 25, and the fact that Agostino and Postma were with the Providence Bruins before season’s end, though all three– Czarnik, Agostino and Postma– played with Boston in relief appearances).

    Sweeney is in the hunt for Kovalchuk and if it comes down to it, he’ll either sign the 35-year-old scorer looking to rejoin the NHL after a five-year journey to the KHL or re-sign 34-year-old Rick Nash– provided the 34-year-old Nash is still on the market.

    It’s a bit of a standoff for the services of a sniper. One that’s almost guaranteed (Kovalchuk) and the other that had a small, injured, sample size already in a Bruins uniform (Nash).

    The other Nash, Riley Nash, could get a pay raise elsewhere if the numbers don’t work out in Boston and I’ve already hinted at why *shameless self plug*.

    Boston needs a second line winger. Whether it’s Rick Nash or Ilya Kovalchuk doesn’t matter. There’s already a youth movement going on and Mark Recchi played until he was 43 on the Bruins 2011 Stanley Cup champion roster.

    Don’t worry about one player– who’s still contributing– getting old. Worry about entire rosters.

    Outside of Boston’s core (Bergeron’s turning 33 this July), Sweeney’s roster is filled to the brim with youth.

    Wingels could see another go-around on the Bruins fourth line if Sweeney deals Backes’s $6.000 million cap hit elsewhere and brings back Schaller. The latter forward (Schaller) had his best career season with 12 goals and 10 assists (22 points) in 82 games played, while Wingels contributed with grit and the occasional surprise goal on the fourth line.

    What’s more important for Boston’s fourth line skaters is the return of pending-RFA, Sean Kuraly.

    The 25-year-old center could play on the third line at times, despite only notching 6-8–14 totals in his first full season of NHL action (75 games). Despite his offensive shortcomings, the Bruins shouldn’t give up on Kuraly with guys like Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson and Trent Frederic breathing down his neck for a bottom-6 forward role on the 2018-19 squad.

    Kuraly had two clutch goals in the short-lived 12-game 2018 postseason run.

    Pending UFA-defender, Nick Holden, 31, is as good as gone as the rental blueliner was acquired as an insurance policy for a deep run that didn’t come to fruition.

    Sweeney won’t have to do much this offseason. Find a second line winger, work on bringing some key glue guys back (if possible) and re-sign or sign a new backup goaltender.

    You’ll notice “find another top-4 defender” isn’t included in this list. A healthy Brandon Carlo shakes things up in the 2018 postseason. More experience under McAvoy’s reign or the insertion of Jeremy Lauzon or Jakub Zboril on the blueline can make a difference too.

    Boston doesn’t have to rush and overpay for the services of a top-4 blueliner– unless they have John Carlson or the like in mind.

    That’s right, Anton Khudobin, 32, is a pending-UFA.

    While Khudobin held down the fort in October and early November, the backup goalie is not a starter. He loves Boston and the city, rightfully, loves him back for his best performance in goals against average (2.56) and save percentage (.913) in 31 games played since his 2013-14 campaign with the Carolina Hurricanes (a 2.30 GAA and .926 SV% in 36 games played).

    There isn’t a huge goalie market, which could do favors for Khudobin if he’s looking for a healthy pay raise, but for Sweeney and the Bruins means he might have to fork something up to retain the services of his backup or acquire a new one.

    Then again, Zane McIntyre and Dan Vladar have a healthy competition in the system for the backup role to starting goaltender, Tuukka Rask, 31, and his $7.000 million cap hit through the 2020-21 season.

    Rask posted a 2.36 GAA and .917 SV% in 54 games played this season with a 34-14-5 record. He had his third-straight 30-plus win season and was right in the sweet spot for number of games played as a starter (he was four appearances shy of matching his 58-game appearance in 2013-14 with the Bruins– the same season Boston won its 2nd President’s Trophy in franchise history).

    Now, as for why the Bruins would look to move Backes (I’m sure you’ve been wondering), it’s a simple game of math. Freeing up $6.000 million in cap space makes signing Kovalchuk or John Tavares more attractive, while also leaving an open door for maybe re-signing glue guys like Riley Nash and Tim Schaller.

    And no, Boston won’t bring Milan Lucic back for a second stint with the organization like they did with Glen Murray years ago. Sweeney’s looking to rid the organization of a bad $6.000 million contract, not trying to add one in the form of an Edmonton Oiler’s forward who had his worst season since the lockout shortened 2012-13 season and his injury shortened 50 game season in 2009-10.

    Plus, Boston still has Matt Beleskey ($1.900 million, retained salary) on the books through the end of 2018-19, Dennis Seidenberg‘s $1.167 million cap hit through 2019-20 (thanks to a buyout) and Jimmy Hayes‘s $866,667 cap hit through the end of 2018-19 (another buyout) on the books.

    Waiting a year to then buyout Backes’s remaining contract isn’t an option either, for the record.

    It’s either find a trading partner or live with the consequences.

    And no, just trading David Krejci without taking care of Backes at some point doesn’t fix things either. That’d actually hurt the team in its roster depth. Krejci is your surefire second line center (unless Tavares comes into the equation), which is not something Backes could handle at this point in his career.

    Other pending free agents throughout the organization include:

    Justin Hickman (RFA), Chris Breen (UFA), Colby Cave (RFA), Tommy Cross (UFA), Austin Czarnik (UFA), and Anton Blidh (RFA)

  • Riley Nash could be this summer’s big mistake (or not)

    Every year there’s a Brooks Orpik, Matt Beleskey, David Backes or Karl Alzner in the free agent market and this summer, it’s Riley Nash.

    He exceeded expectations, he outperformed everything beyond imagination– in his contract year, after a 17-point (7 goals, 10 assists) season in 2016-17.

    His 15-26–41 totals included two power play goals and three power play points, but no shorthanded goals and no shorthanded points while being one of Boston’s biggest penalty killers.

    His CorsiFor% has remained stagnant around 52.00% for the last three seasons.

    Consistent? Yes. Bound to be the next mistake by a GM that’s willing to throw money around carelessly? Also yes.

    How much of Riley Nash is the real Riley Nash? How much of his play this season was impacted by playing alongside impressive rookie Danton Heinen and David Backes– let alone his appearances on Boston’s first line with Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak when the Bruins were hampered by injuries down the middle?

    Riley Nash isn’t a passenger, but rather this offseason’s biggest miss for a team looking to buy low and potentially sell high when they realize that one free agent signing alone won’t make all the difference in terms of depth and contending for a playoff spot– depth that you can’t otherwise have if you sign too many top-nine forwards to too big of a contract.

    At 29-years-old, Nash cannot get any better from a physical potential standpoint. In a game that’s getting younger and placing more emphasis on speed and skill than ever before, he may be out of an NHL job by the time he’s 35.

    In his best seasons as a member of the Carolina Hurricanes, Nash had 24, 25 and 22 point seasons from 2013-16. Through 59 games into this season, he bested his career-high 25 points in 2014-15 with 10-18–28 totals.

    He added five goals and eight more assists in 17 games over the course of the remainder of the season, before being shutdown thanks to a shot to the side of the head as a result of friendly fire from defender Torey Krug.

    For someone who hadn’t reached the 40-point plateau before, 41 points sounded impressive. Yet his faceoff win percentage has remained stagnant in his full-time NHL days around 48 percent. He’s never scored 20 goals and just broke the 20-assist plateau this season– his seventh year in the NHL.

    Happy accidents are great.

    They’re fun to watch as players soar and teams roll along, but from a management standpoint there’s only so much cap room to work with.

    When Beleskey had his 22-10–32 totals in 65 games with the Anaheim Ducks in 2014-15, the Boston Bruins had a need for someone that could become their immediate fill-in on the second line to replace Milan Lucic (who had been traded that June to the Los Angeles Kings).

    Beleskey signed a long-term, five-year contract worth $3.800 million AAV with Boston that July and followed up a successful season in Anaheim with a career high 37 points (15 goals, 22 assists) in 80 games in his first year as a member of the Bruins in 2015-16.

    Despite attaining career highs in assists and points in a season, Beleskey’s point-per-game production decreased. It fell off the face of the Earth when injuries and a lack of offense led to just three goals and five assists (eight points) in 49 games the following season (2016-17).

    Then through 14 games played in 2017-18 with the Bruins, Beleskey had nothing to show on the scoresheet.

    He was later traded as an afterthought in the blockbuster, Rick Nash–Ryan Spooner deal this February.

    As part of taking on Rick Nash’s contract, both teams had to eat some salary and the Bruins ended up retaining $1.900 million of Beleskey’s cap hit through the end of his contract (July 1, 2020).

    While Riley Nash turned heads around the league, becoming a more prominent bottom-six forward, that’s just it– he’s a bottom-six forward, who– like Beleskey did in July 2015, is about to get paid.

    Even though Nash brings more offensive upside to his game than Beleskey does, they could be making the same salary because of one outlier season.

    One good season is not an indication of consistency.

    But NHL GMs have a tendency to eat it up and see a (possibly) short-term fix for an otherwise thought to be long-term hole on their roster.

    The ebbs and flows of the market will always lead to poor financial planning in the long run for some teams. Riley Nash does deserve a raise for his efforts with Boston while on a $900,000 cap hit the last two seasons, but buyer beware– maybe not at the price you think.

    If you’re willing to take a risk and have the right combination of youth that can help boost his numbers, then Nash is the guy for your team– provided you already have that youth locked up and you aren’t projecting someone else coming up through your system to battle for a roster spot any time soon.

    There hasn’t been much of an indication as to how much a guy like Riley Nash might ask for in terms of money this offseason, nor has there been any public indication of how long of a deal he’d like to sign.

    That can be a blessing in disguise, if you consider the fact that Rick Nash will likely be available this July too, but at substantially more dollars for about the same impact on a roster (Rick Nash had 20-13–33 totals this season in 71 games with the New York Rangers and Bruins).

    Both Nashs are third liners at best that can play on a second or first line if your team is struggling (looking for a creative spark) or going through a lot of injuries.

    For comparisons sake, if you’re an NHL GM looking to avoid signing “the worst contract of the summer”, then signing Riley Nash (or literally anyone) at less money than Rick Nash will make you look pretty good.

    Rick Nash has sheer name-brand power. Riley Nash, on the other hand, has being one of the funniest, nicest, underrated guys in the locker room going for him.

    But Rick Nash has already indicated he’d be willing to re-sign with Boston “if the dollars work out”. Given Boston’s salary cap navigation with Charlie McAvoy entering a contract year in 2018-19 (his final year on his current entry-level deal), the chances of Rick Nash being back in a Bruins uniform at $5.000 million-plus are slim.

    Especially when there’s pending-RFA Austin Czarnik to re-sign and others. For Boston, Czarnik may be the key to moving on from Riley Nash if the younger Nash has truly priced himself out.

    Sean Kuraly and Czarnik can compete for the third line center job, while the loser reigns as the fourth line center– and that’s ignoring Trent Frederic, Jack Studnicka, Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson, Colby Cave and others in the system that’ll also be fighting for roster spots at training camp.