Down the Frozen River

Tag: Chris Kunitz

  • February 24 – Day 132 – Wildcard Wednesday

    The Carolina Hurricanes finally won a game in the Game of the Day series, beating the Philadelphia Flyers, who hadn’t lost in our series, 3-1.

    It was actually the Flyers that scored first, but it wasn’t until late in the first.  Scott Laughton’s wrister found the back of the net at the 17:45 mark, assisted by Matt Read (his 10th helper of the season) and Radko Gudas, the only score of the opening frame.

    In their black alternates, the Canes leveled the score 8:09 after resuming play with a Joakim Nordstrom snap shot, his eighth tally of the season.  10:17 later, Jordan Staal’s 16th goal of the season gave Carolina a lead they would not yield, assisted by Brett Pesce and Andrej Nestrasil.  The Hurricane‘s 2-1 lead held into the second intermission.

    Carolina‘s lone insurance goal found the back of the net with 5:49 remaining, courtesy of a Eric Staal wrister, assisted by Jay McClement and Elias Lindholm (his 21st helper of the season).

    Cam Ward earns the win after saving 36 of 37 (97.3%), while Michal Neuvirth takes the loss, saving 15 of 18 (83.3%).

    The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 59-31-12, favoring the home squad by 33 points over the roadies.

    Today’s schedule is fairly light, with only four games to be played.  The first, Montréal at Washington, drops the puck at 7 p.m. eastern, followed half an hour later by Pittsburgh at Boston (NBCSN).  San Jose at Colorado (NBCSN) gets started at 10 p.m. eastern, trailed 30 minutes later by this evening’s nightcap, Buffalo at Anaheim.

    None of tonight’s games are divisional rivalries, but two are between teams currently qualifying for the playoffs (Pittsburgh at Boston and San Jose at Colorado).

    I must admit, I’m being swayed by a mini-rivalry here in the “office” (aka our dorm rooms), but I think the Pittsburgh–Boston game will be the most competitive this evening, so let’s head to the TD Garden!

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    Tonight’s game will be Pittsburgh‘s 11th in the Game of the Day series, where they own a 3-6-1 record.  Their most recent showing under our observation was a 4-2 loss to the Lightning on Saturday.  Boston hasn’t been featured since Valentine’s Day, when they fell 6-5 in Detroit.  That game was their 12th in the series, and set their record at 4-7-1 in such games.

    The 30-20-8 Pittsburgh Penguins currently occupy fourth place in the Metropolitan Division and eighth in the Eastern Conference, good enough for the second wildcard position.  To get to that position, they’ve played the 12th-best defense in the league, but have scored the 11th-fewest goals, which has kept contests tight.  A more in-depth analysis of their game can be found within Saturday’s article.

    The Penguins most recent game was a 4-3 victory in Buffalo Sunday afternoon.  A regulation win tonight would propel Pittsburgh past Boston into the first wildcard position, and they would trail the Islanders by a lone point for the third division spot.  A loss would not put them out of the playoffs, but it would keep the differential between them and the first team out, New Jersey, at only a lone point.

    The 32-22-6 Boston Bruins currently sit in third place in the Atlantic Division and fifth in the Eastern Conference.  It has been the offense that has led the way for the Bruins, as they’ve scored the third-most goals in the league, but they’ve given up the 10th-most goals.

    Led by Patrice Bergeron’s 201 shots, the B’s have fired puck an incredible 1902 times, with a whopping 9.5% finding the back of the net for 185 goals (led by Brad Marchand’s 30 tallies), third-most in the NHL.  Just like you’d expect, that offense success has continued on the power play, where Boston‘s 22.29% success rate, for 39 power play goals (led by Bergeron’s nine), ranks fourth-best in the league.

    The center line has represented the divide between Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde for the Bruins, as the defense continues to struggle this season.  Even with Kevan Miller’s team-leading 96 blocks, Boston has allowed 1822 shots to reach 22-17-5 Tuukka Rask and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91.3% for 169 goals against, 10th-most in the league.  That being said, the Bruins do flip a switch on the penalty kill, as they’ve killed 82.76% of their penalties for only 35 power play goals against.  In addition, the kill has also been tremendous at scoring, as they have eight short-handed goals to their credit (led by Marchand’s four shorties).

    The Bruins last played Monday night, a 6-4 loss to the Blue Jackets on home ice.  A win tonight would put Boston back into the third division spot by virtue of losing the games played tiebreaker to Tampa Bay.  A regulation loss allows the Penguins to jump the Bruins for the top wildcard spot, and they would have a three point lead over New Jersey.

    Boston has already won the season series 2-0-0, with the cumulative score reading 9-2.  Both previous games were played in a home-and-home series on December 16 and 18, with the Bruins winning 3-0 on home ice before travelling to the Steel City and winning 6-2.  Those games were the second and third of Mike Sullivan’s Pittsburgh career.

    Some players to keep an eye on in tonight’s game include Boston‘s Marchand (30 goals [tied for fourth-most in the league]) and Rask (four shutouts [tied for fourth-most in the league]) & Pittsburgh‘s Sidney Crosby (56 points [eighth-most in the league] and 25 goals [tied for ninth-most in the league]), Marc-Andre Fleury (four shutouts [tied for fourth-most in the league] and 24 wins [tied for ninth-most in the league]) and Chris Kunitz (+21 [tied for seventh-best in the league]).

    This Pittsburgh team is a much different one than played the Bruins in December, and is much more capable of scoring.  I expect to see a lot of goals scored, but favoring the Bruins when the clock reads zeroes.

  • February 20 – Day 128 – East is wild…card

    Every game is important for the Flames if they want to make a playoff push, and they made that fact known in yesterday’s Game of the Day, beating Vancouver 5-2 in the Saddledome.

    Calgary didn’t wait long, 1:41 to be exact, before scoring their first goal, as Joe Colborne’s snap shot found the back of the net, assisted by Mikael Backlund (his 19th helper of the season) and TJ Brodie.  Vancouver leveled the score at the 10:41 mark with a wrister from Adam Cracknell, assisted by Jannik Hansen and Daniel Sedin (his 27th helper of the season), and followed that 5:06 later with a wrister from Jake Virtanen (his fourth of the season) to take a 2-1 lead that held into the intermission.

    A three-goal second is what sealed the game for the Flames.  Their first of the period came only 2:07 after resuming play, courtesy of a Backlund wrister, assisted by Colborne and Michael Frolik.  The game-winner found the back of the net 3:27 later, courtesy of Frolik, who was assisted by Brodie (his 31st helper of the season) and Matt Stajan.  Calgary set the score at 4-2 with only 25 seconds remaining in the second period, compliments of a Mark Giordano slap shot, assisted by Brodie and Johnny Gaudreau (his 34th helper of the season).

    Calgary scored the lone goal of the third relatively early, as Josh Jooris’ deflection (his fourth goal of the season) found the back of the net at the 3:01 mark, assisted by Lance Bouma and Jakub Nakladal.

    Jonas Hiller earns the win after saving 26 of 28 (92.9%), while Jacob Markstrom takes the loss after saving 28 of 33 (84.8%).

    After that, the DtFR Game of the Day series stands at 57-29-12, favoring the home squad by 34 points over the roadies.

    It’s a busy day in the NHL, just like we like it!  There’s nine games on the schedule, and the first one, Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh, starts at 12:30 p.m. eastern.  Four games drop the puck at the usual starting time of 7 p.m. eastern (Philadelphia at Toronto, Detroit at Ottawa, Winnipeg at Florida and New Jersey at Washington), followed an hour later by two more (Los Angeles at Nashville and Boston at Dallas [NHLN]).  The St. Louis at Arizona game gets started at 9 p.m. eastern, followed an hour later by this evening’s nightcap, Colorado at Edmonton.

    Only two of tonight’s games are between division rivals (Detroit at Ottawa and New Jersey at Washington) and three are between teams currently qualifying for the playoffs (Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh, Los Angeles at Nashville and Boston at Dallas).

    Since the Lightning and Penguins are currently tied at 66 points for the two wildcard positions, it is impossible to not keep an eye on this game!

    Unknown-1Pittsburgh Penguins Logo

     

     

     

     

    This will be Tampa Bay‘s 11th time being featured in our Game of the Day series, where they currently own a 6-3-1 record.  Their most recent game under our observation was a February 12 4-3 overtime victory over the Predators.  Pittsburgh has been featured nine times before today, and own a 3-5-1 record in such games, with their most recent being a 3-0 shutout loss on home ice to the Rangers on February 10.

    The 31-22-4 Tampa Bay Lightning currently sit in fourth in the Atlantic Division and eighth in the Eastern Conference, good enough to qualify them for the second wildcard position (they’re tied with Pittsburgh for the other wildcard, but the Pens have played one less game).  To get to that position, they’ve played the eighth-best offense in the league, paired with the 13th-best scoring offense.

    Thanks in part to Victor Hedman’s team-leading 97 blocks, the Bolts have allowed only 1606 shots to reach 22-17-3 Ben Bishop and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91.8% for 144 goals against, eighth-fewest in the league.  That success has continued with the penalty kill, which holds 82.08% of extra-man opportunities scoreless for only 31 power play goals against, making Tampa Bay the 11th-best penalty kill.

    The offense in Tampa is above average.  Even with Steven Stamkos’ 162 shots, they’ve only fired the puck 1665 times, but 9.1% have found the back of the net for 155 goals (led by Nikita Kucherov’s 24 tallies), 13th-most in the league.   Unlike the penalty kill, this special team does not follow suit with the full unit.  The Bolts have only been successful on 17.95% of attempts for 35 power play goals (led by Stamkos’ 11), 10th-worst in the league.

    Tampa Bay last played Thursday night, when they needed a shootout to beat the Jets 6-5.  In addition to breaking their tie with the Pens, a win today also has the potential to move the Bolts all the way into second in the division should both Boston and Detroit lose this evening.  Should Tampa lose, they do run the chance of falling out of the playoffs should New Jersey beat Washington.

    The 29-19-8 Pittsburgh Penguins currently occupy fourth in the Metropolitan Division and seventh in the Eastern Conference, leading the Bolts by a games played tiebreaker for the top wildcard position.  They play a top-10 defense, but the offense ranks near the bottom 10, so the Penguins have had struggles this year.

    Even with Ben Lovejoy’s 84 blocks, the Pens have allowed 1729 shots to reach 23-13-6 Marc-Andre Fleury and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 92.3% for only 144 goals against, eighth-best in the league.  The defense has especially stepped up their efforts on the penalty kill, where they are killing 84.27% of opposing power plays for only 28 extra man goals against, fourth-best in the league.

    On the other hand, the offense has been anything but exemplary.  The Pens may have fired 1827 shots, but only 8% have found the back of the net for 148 tallies (led by Sidney Crosby’s 25 goals), 11th fewest in the NHL.  Those numbers improve with the man advantage though, as Pittsburgh has scored on 19.34% of their opportunities for 35 power play goals (led by Evgeni Malkin’s 10 extra man tallies).

    Pittsburgh‘s most recent game was a 6-3 victory over the Red Wings on Thursday.  Just like Tampa, a win this afternoon officially breaks their tie with this afternoon’s opposition for the wild card, but Pittsburgh is unable to improve past their current position.  A loss by the Pens would, just like the Bolts, open them up for being replaced in the playoffs by the Devils should they win tonight.

    So far this season, Tampa Bay leads the season series 2-0-0.  These teams last met February 5 in Tampa, where the Bolts won 6-3.  The better of the two games for Pittsburgh was the first meeting on January 15, where the Pens took the Lightning to overtime before falling 5-4.

    Some players to keep an eye on in this matinee are Pittsburgh‘s Crosby (55 points [eighth-most in the league] and 25 goals [tied for eighth-most in the league]), Fleury (four shutouts [tied for fourth-most in the league] and 23 wins [ninth-most in the league]), Chris Kunitz (+22 [fifth-best in the league]) and Olli Maatta (+21 [tied for sixth-best in the league]) & Tampa Bay‘s Bishop (2.14 GAA [fifth-best in the league]) and Kucherov (24 goals [10th-most in the league]).

    This is a tough game to predict.  Tampa‘s offense, overall, has played better than Pittsburgh‘s, but the Penguins have been surging of late, and will be encouraged by a home crowd.  I predict a tight game, but a Penguins winner.

  • February 10 – Day 118 – It’s been 9.5 months…

    So, I predicted a fantastic game between the Los Angeles Kings and the Boston Bruins in yesterday’s Game of the Day.  Turns out, I was way off with that prediction, as the Kings won 9-2.

    The first of the Bruins‘ two goals was scored after 5:03 of play on the power play, scored by Brad Marchand (his 25th goal of the season), assisted by Matt Beleskey and Zdeno Chara.  Los Angeles leveled the score 13:18 later with a power play goal of their own via a Second Star of the Game Jeff Carter wrister, assisted by Jake Muzzin and First Star Drew Doughty (his 22nd helper of the season) and later took the lead with only 16 seconds remaining in the period when Marian Gaborik backhanded the puck into net (his 11th goal of the season), assisted by Vincent Lecavalier.  The Kings‘ 2-1 lead held into the intermission.

    Los Angeles continued their goal streak 2:42 after resuming play when Andy Andreoff scored his fourth tally of the season off a wrister, which eventually became the game-winner.  9:27 later, the score became 4-1 when Doughty backhanded power play goal into the net, assisted by Third Star Milan Lucic (his 19th helper of the season) and Gaborik.  LA‘s third goal of the period occurred at the 12:42 mark when Dwight King tipped the puck into goal, assisted by Tyler Toffoli and Carter (his 23rd helper of the season).  1:04 before the Bruins were saved by the bell, the Kings scored their fourth and final goal of the period, courtesy of Trevor Lewis off assists from Muzzin (his 25th helper of the season) and Kyle Clifford.  The 6-1 score held into the second intermission.

    The Kings struck quickly again at the beginning of the third period, when Lucic scored off assists from Anze Kopitar (his 34th helper of the season) and Dustin Brown.  Boston scored their second and final goal of the night 1:03 later when Tyler Randell connected on his snap shot, assisted by Kevan Miller (his 12th helper of the season) and Max Talbot.  The Kings returned to the offensive at the 13:50 mark when Luke Schenn scored a snap shot power play goal of his own, assisted by Christian Ehrhoff and Toffoli (his 17th helper of the season).  The Kings had one more goal in them, which Brown scored with 3:03 remaining in the game, assisted by Schenn and Ehrhoff (his ninth helper of the season), setting the score at the 9-2 final.

    Jonathan Quick earns the win after saving 35 of 37 (94.6%), while Tuukka Rask takes the loss after saving 27 of 32 (84.4%).  He was pulled after 32:29 of play (King’s goal) and replaced with Jonas Gustavsson, who saved 21 of 25 (84%).

    The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 53-25-10, favoring the home squad by 38 points over the roadies.

    As usual, it’s a light Wednesday schedule for the NHL this week.  The first puck drops in Detroit, who is hosting Ottawa at 7 p.m. eastern, followed an hour later by the New York Rangers at Pittsburgh (NBCSN).  This evening’s nightcap starts at 9:30 p.m. eastern, featuring Vancouver in Arizona.

    All of today’s games are divisional rivalries, but New York at Pittsburgh is the only game between teams currently qualifying for the playoffs, as well as a rematch of one of last season’s Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.

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    Tonight’s game will be New York‘s 14th in the Game of the Day series, where they own a 7-4-2 record.  Their most recent showing in the series was January 17, a 5-2 loss in Washington.  Pittsburgh has been featured eight times before tonight’s game, and own a 3-4-1 record in such games.  The last time they were featured was last Friday, when they fell 6-3 in Tampa Bay.

    The 30-18-5 New York Rangers currently sit in second place in the Metropolitan Division and third in the Eastern Conference.  To get to that position, they’ve played one of the strongest offenses in the league, but what makes the Blueshirts most dangerous is their seemingly continuous improvement on the defensive end.

    Led by Rick Nash’s 149 attempts, the Rangers have fired 1564 shots, of which a solid 9.6% have found the back of the net for 153 goals, sixth-most in the league.  The most intriguing thing about this offense, though, is that most of their success is at even-strength.  In fact, New York‘s 15.89% success rate, good enough for only 24 extra-man goals (led by Mats Zuccarello’s five power play tallies), ranks third-worst in the league.  Making matters worse, the Rangers have also allowed five short-handed goals, one more than the league average.

    Thanks in part to Dan Girardi’s 104 blocks, the Blueshirts have allowed only 1560 shots to reach 26-14-4 Henrik Lundqvist and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91.9% for 137 goals against, 13th-fewest in the league.  Just like on offense, this success is with no help to the special teams unit, as New York has killed only 78.13% of opposing power plays and allowed 35 extra-man goals, fifth-worst in the league.

    New York is currently riding a three-game win streak, with their most recent being a 2-1 victory over the Devils on Monday.  A win tonight expands their lead over the Islanders to five points and gets them within 15 points of the league-leading Capitals.

    The 27-18-7 Pittsburgh Penguins currently occupy fourth place in the Metropolitan Division and eighth in the Eastern Conference.  They’ve played a very balanced game to get to this position, with both ends of the ice ranking above average against the rest of the league.  A more in-depth analysis of their game can be found within Friday’s post.

    The Penguins are currently riding a two-game win streak, with their most recent victory occurring Monday with a 6-2 win over the Ducks.  A win today bumps Pittsburgh back into third place in the division, even if it is only by a point.  Additionally, they would only trail the Rangers by two points for second, an important goal for the Pens as they try to avoid the wild card.

    These squads met last year in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, and Pittsburgh did little than act as a speed bump on the Rangers‘ path to the Eastern Conference Finals, as New York won the series 4-1.

    Somehow, division rivals New York and Pittsburgh have avoided each other since that deciding Game Five almost 292 days ago (nine months and 16 days), making this game the first of four meetings this regular season.  In addition to their playoff success against the Penguins, the Rangers won last season’s regular season series 3-0-1.

    Some players to watch include New York‘s Lundqvist (26 wins [fourth-most in the league]) & Pittsburgh‘s Sidney Crosby (53 points [sixth-most in the league] and 24 goals [tied for eighth-most in the league]), Marc-Andre Fleury (four shutouts [tied for fourth-most in the league] and 21 wins [tied for ninth-most in the league]), Chris Kunitz (+23 [fourth-best in the league]) and Olli Maatta (+21 [tied for seventh-best in the league]).

    Judging by overall numbers alone, it is hard to pick against New York‘s offense, but until their special teams improve, they will always be suspect to even the worst teams.  Too bad for them the Penguins are not the same team that started the season 0-3-0.  Since the game is in Pittsburgh, I give the edge to the Pens.

  • Numbers Game: Look to the Rafters- Pittsburgh Penguins

    By: Nick Lanciani

    What will retired numbers look like around the league in the future? While there’s only a finite set of numbers to utilize on the back of a jersey, many teams choose to retire (or honor) some numbers based on extraordinary circumstances, dedication to the organization, or legendary status.

    With that in mind, I explore what each team around the NHL might do in the coming seasons. Feel free to speak your mind and drop us a line in the comments or tweet to @DtFrozenRiver using #DTFRNumbersGame.

    For each team, I thought of former and current players that should have their numbers retired now or once they hang up the skates.

    Pittsburgh Penguins LogoPittsburgh Penguins

    Current Retired Numbers- 21 Michel Briere, 66 Mario Lemieux

    Recommended Numbers to Retire

    87 Sidney Crosby

    To say the Pittsburgh Penguins will never retire Crosby’s number 87 sweater after his career is over is like saying penguins can fly.

    71 Evgeni Malkin

    The same goes for Malkin, as long as the relationship between the club and player never goes sour.

    81 Phil Kessel

    That’s right, I’m calling it. The Penguins will retire Phil Kessel’s number 81 one day. Not only am I crazy for making this declaration before he even touches the ice in a Pittsburgh sweater, but, well on second thought, that’s pretty much the only reason why I’m crazy. Kessel can score, that’s a fact. And anyone that plays alongside Crosby or Malkin is automatically made ten times better (if you’re not the one scoring, you’re the one passing the puck to Sid the Kid or Geno).

    So that’s why I think his number will see the rafters in Pittsburgh in the future, aside from the fact that he’s finally found an organization he can settle in for longer than ever before. *I wrote this before the season started, as things are right now, his Pittsburgh venture is about as memorable as Colby Armstrong’s days in the Steel City.*

    14 Chris Kunitz

    Kunitz may be the first beneficiary of the Crosby-Malkin affect, as he is closest to retirement, but while he has been superb for the Penguins, his number 14 likely won’t rest alongside Michel Briere’s number 21 and Mario Lemieux’s number 66.

    29 Marc-Andre Fleury

    If he lets more beach balls by him, then all bets are off. Otherwise, Fleury’s the best goaltender Pittsburgh has seen in a long time, but is that enough to put number 29 out of commission after his career is over?

    58 Kris Letang

    Letang will likely be around for a long time in Pittsburgh and given the fact that he’s their best defenseman, there’s a good chance number 58 will see immortality above the ice at the Consol Energy Center. His health issues aside, Letang is one remarkable player in all of his resilience and persistence in the game. Including his health, Letang is superhuman.

    9 Pascal Dupuis

    As a player, Dupuis was committed to the Penguins through and through. He might not have been the greatest there ever was, but he’s certainly worthy of receiving the distinction of having his number retired by Pittsburgh. Best of luck to Dupuis in his transition to the front office aspect of the game within the organization.

  • October 28 – Day 22 – More capitals than you think…

    Yesterday’s Game of the Day, contested between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the St. Louis Blues, was our second straight shutout victory for the home squad, as the Notes beat the Bolts 2-0.

    Scott Gomez’ goal, assisted by Colton Parayko and Troy Brouwer at the 15:59 mark of the first period, was his first with St. Louis and the eventual game-winner.  The lone insurance goal was an empty netter scored by Brouwer, assisted by Alex Pietrangelo, with only 41 seconds remaining in the game.

    First star of the game Jake Allen earned the win by stopping all 26 Lightning shots, while Ben Bishop lost his yearly homecoming game by allowing only one goal on 23 shots (95.7%).

    The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 13-5-3, still favoring the home squad by 11 points.

    After a busy 10 game schedule yesterday, the writers at Down the Frozen River invite you to sit back, crack open your beverage of choice and relax this evening, as there are only three games on the schedule tonight.  Instead of frantically checking your phone every five minutes to check scores, you can chill out, knowing that all three games will be on national TV in their home nation.  The evening begins at 7:30 p.m. eastern when the Calgary Flames visit the Canadian capital to take on the Senators (TVAS, SN1).  The capital theme continues half an hour later, when Pittsburgh visits the American capital to play division rival Washington (NBCSN).  Finally, at 10:30 p.m. eastern, the squad representing the capital of Tennessee, the Nashville Predators, will visit the county seat of Santa Clara County (So, like, the capital of Santa Clara County?  YES, THE CAPITAL OF SANTA CLARA COUNTY!) to play the San Jose Sharks (NBCSN).

    Of these three, one is a divisional rivalry (Pittsburgh at Washington), and none that features two teams that are currently qualifying for the playoffs (San Jose fell out of position last night with Vancouver‘s win over Montréal).  Therefore, I expect the Pittsburgh–Washington game to be the best game of the night.

    Pittsburgh Penguins LogoWashington Capitals Logo

     

     

     

     

     

    The rivalry between these two squads is well documented.  In fact, this season is the tenth anniversary of the rebirth of the rivalry, as both teams’ captains began playing for their respective teams during the 2005-’06 season.  In their history, the Penguins own the all-time series at 131-110-16 but, as should be expected, the Capitals own a better record when playing in front of their home crowd (63-58-9).

    We first take a look at the visiting team.  While offense is usually the first thing to come to mind when thinking of a squad with both Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel and Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins have strongly relied on their defense (especially Ian Cole, who has 25 blocks so far) and Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to achieve their 4-4-0 record.  The only goalie to put on the pads for Pittsburgh so far this season, he’s given up 16 goals so far this season, six under the league average.  Even when a man or more down, the Penguins have still found a way to keep the opposition off the board, as they’ve only given up four power play goals (one less than the league average) to maintain an 84.62% penalty kill rate, exceeding the league average of 81.43%.  Fleury’s .932 save percentage also exceeds the league average by 1.7%.

    In comparison to both their defense and Penguins teams in the past, the offense has been fairly lackluster.  The club has only tickled the twine 13 times, nine goals below the league average.  Part of the problem has been the poor results on the power play.  In 28 attempts, the Penguins have only scored two goals (three below average), for a 7.14% power play.  What’s most frustrating for the team is their lack of offensive success hasn’t entirely been their fault.  Pittsburgh has shot the puck 261 times in eight games, 16 more times than the league average, but has only scored on 5% of their shots.

    Turning our attention to the home side, we find a 6-1-0 Capitals side that we at Down the Frozen River think has the potential to represent the Eastern Conference in this year’s Stanley Cup Finals.  Washington is a well rounded team that is a threat to score on one end of the ice, and has full capabilities to stop the opposition on the other end.

    Beginning with the offense, the Capitals have scored 29 tallies so far this season, seven goals above league average (Ovi leads the way with five goals this season).  Seven of those goals have been on the power play.  What’s most remarkable is they’ve had extra-man success (two more goals than league average) on significantly fewer opportunities (six less, to be exact).  What the kids that can do quick math have figured out before I tell you is that Washington‘s power play percentage is much better than the rest of the NHL’s.  We’re talking so good, that the Caps score on almost a third of their man-advantages (31.82%, to be exact).  The league averages only 18.57%… for sake of argument, we can almost claim that Washington scores two power play goals for every one scored by the average hockey team.  Or, in other words, the Penguins would be very wise to not commit any penalties.

    The biggest fallback of this offense?  They don’t put as many shots on goal.  They’ve only fired 207 pucks so far this season, 38 under the league average.  But, they score seemingly all the time, which has given them a 14% shot percentage, 5% over the league average.

    So, if the offense is so good, opposing teams should just get into a barn-burner with the Caps and hope for the best, right?  Bad idea, mostly because Washington doesn’t share very well: the Caps are the only ones allowed to score.  In addition to their successful offense, the Capitals have only given up 18 goals this season, which is four under the league average.  Specifically on the penalty kill, the Caps have given up one fewer goal (four) than the league average, and on fewer opportunities too. Their 83.33% penalty kill rate exceeds the league average by 1.9%.  And its not just Goaltender Braden Holtby, either.  The defense has also held their opposition to only 167 shots, 76 under the league average.  Karl Alzner has led the charge in blocks, with 18 to his credit.

    Tonight was also supposed to be the return of RW Eric Fehr to the Verizon Center, but he is still in the final stages of recovery from elbow surgery and does not expect to return until this weekend.  He played nine of his 10 seasons with the Caps (spent the 2011-’12 season in Winnipeg), and signed as a free agent with the Pens this offseason.  His return will be postponed to January 24.  In replacement, we get to celebrate Kris Letang’s 500th game of his career.

    Last season, the Caps won the season series 3-1-0 after shutting out the Penguins twice.  The Pens‘ lone win was a 4-3 thriller in Washington, with Chris Kunitz scoring the winning goal.

    Some players to watch in this one include Pittsburgh‘s Fleury (one shutout [tied for sixth in the league] and four wins [tied for eighth in the league]) and Washington‘s John Carlson (eight assists [tied for seventh in the league]), Holtby (five wins [tied for second in the league]) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (11 points [tied for fifth in the league] and eight assists [tied for seventh in the league]).

    Although the Penguins may have won their last game in this arena, I fully expect Washington to beat the Penguins easily, as the Pittsburgh offense will not be able to keep up with Ovechkin and the Capitals.

  • Pittsburgh Penguins 2014- 2015 Season Preview

    Connor Keith returns to the Down the Frozen River scene with this season preview of the Pittsburgh Penguins. This was written before final roster cuts were made, but the season came along quickly and I kind of failed as an editor when it came to posting things in a timely manner. But that shouldn’t make any of Connor’s analysis any less valuable! Enjoy.

    Pittsburgh Penguins (51-24-7, won division, second in conference)

    After yet another early exit from the playoffs (fourth time kicked out of playoffs in first or second round of playoffs since winning the Cup in the 2008-’09 season), Mario Lemieux & Ronald Burkle have pulled the plug on the entire coaching staff & GM Ray Shero (2006-’14). Since then, the Penguins have hired Jim Rutherford to replace Shero, Mike Johnston to replace Dan Bylsma, & Rick Tocchet to replace Tony Granato & Tood Reirden.

    Mike Johnston has yet to record a game in the NHL as a head coach, but he does have experience in head coaching. His first head coaching position was in the college ranks when he coached New Brunswick for five seasons (1989-’94). After being hired by the Canadian men’s team in 1994 as an associate coach, he took the head coaching job in 1998 for a season. He departed Team Canada for an assistant position with the Vancouver Canucks, followed by being an associate coach of the Los Angeles Kings. His most recent position is with the Portland Winterhawks (WHL), from 2008 until last season as coach & GM.

    His first season witnessed the Winterhawks going 19-48-3-2, second to last in the league. The following season, Johnston’s Winterhawks (44-25-2-1) finished fourth in a competitive division for fifth in the conference, losing in the second round of the playoffs. In his third season, his team led the conference at 50-19-0-3 for third in the league. The Hawks made it all the way to the finals before losing to Kootenay. In 2011-’12, his team again made it to the finals, losing a deciding game seven.

    Of course, the year the Winterhawks finally won their championship, Johnston was suspended for recruiting violations. As his violations were more connected to his GM position in a junior league, I don’t predict that he will have similar problems in Pittsburgh. He has proven that he can make rapid growth in only the course of one season, which may be exactly what the Pens need to cross the bridge between strong & elite.

    Jim Rutherford is an ex-goalie (potential influence on future goalie signings, either this season or the near future?), playing for Pittsburgh from 1971 until traded to Detroit in the middle of January 1974. For the past 20 years, he has been the General Manager of the Hartford Whalers/Carolina Hurricanes franchise, winning a division championship in 1998-’99, 2001-’02, & 2005-’06, a conference championship in 2001-’02 & 2005-’06, & winning the franchise’s only Stanley Cup in the 2005-’06 season. So far with the Penguins, he has signed six free agents & traded James Neal to the Nashville Predators for Patric Hornqvist & Nick Spaling.

    Of course, the biggest question Penguins have is their goaltending. Based on moves made so far, Marc-Andre Fleury is still Pittsburgh’s starting goalie. He had a save percentage of 91.5% for the regular season, averaging 2.47 goals against per game. As much as everyone likes to get on Fleury during the playoffs, he didn’t have the meltdown people like to associate with him. In fact, in his 13 playoff games, he matched his regular season save percentage exactly, as well as giving up .07 less goals in those playoff games. He also had two shutouts over the postseason (almost 29% of playoff wins were shutouts), in addition to the five he had in the regular season (13% of his wins were shutouts), tied for fourth in the league.

    The Pens also retained Jeff Zatkoff, who played in 20 regular season games last year for a 20-12-6, including a shutout. His save percentage in those games was 91.2% & he allowed 2.29 goals per game.

    In addition, the Penguins also signed Arizona’s backup of a season ago in Thomas Greiss. In 25 games last season, he amassed a record of 10-8-5 (two shutouts, equaling Fleury’s eight percent of games played where the opponent was held scoreless) with a save percentage of 92% (better than both Penguin goalies, but with a smaller sample than Fleury), allowing only 2.29 goals per game (lower than both Pittsburgh goalies). Based on last year’s stats alone, he may take the backup position from Zatkoff.

    The Pens come into the season having lost some big names, most notably Jussi Jokinen (signed with Florida), James Neal (traded to Nashville), & Matt Niskanen (signed with Washington).

    They lost two of the top four players with most regular season games with the Penguins last season in Matt Niskanen & Jussi Jokinen both playing 81 regular season games last year. Additionally, they lost seven of the top 19 players with the most playoff games with the Penguins last season in James Neal, Jussi Jokinen, Matt Niskanen, Lee Stempniak (signed with the Rangers), Joe Vitale (signed with Arizona) (all played in all 13 games), Brian Gibbons (signed with Columbus), & Tanner Glass (signed with the Rangers) (both played eight games). The Penguins are adding players that can play most of a regular season, though, in Christian Erhoff (Buffalo) & Patric Hornqvist (Nashville), who both played 75 games last season.

    The Penguins are not bringing back half of their top six shot takers this year as James Neal (238), Jussi Jokinen (172), & Matt Niskanen (162, led defensemen) are not returning. These three players accounted for over 23% of the Penguins’ shots last regular season. Looking at only postseason numbers, eight of the top 19 shot-takers are not returning, as James Neal (49, led team), Jussi Jokinen (31), Matt Niskanen (24), Lee Stempniak (22), Joe Vitale (13), Brian Gibbons (11), Tanner Glass (10), & Brooks Orpik (eight, signed with Washington) are not returning. These shooters accounted for over 38% of the shots taken in the postseason.

    Almost 20% of last season’s goals will not show up to training camp this season as James Neal (27) & Jussi Jokinen (21) are with other teams. The Penguins have added Patric Hornqvist (22) to try to make up for the missing goals, but he only makes up for Jokinen’s, meaning other players including new addition Nick Spaling (13 last season, acquired from Nashville) & returner Brandon Sutter (13) will need to step up their goal scoring.

    Three of the leading five assisters will not be with the Penguins this season as Jussi Jokinen (36), Matt Niskanen (36, led defensemen), & James Neal (34) are not returning. To make up for this, the Pens have signed Patric Hornqvist (31), Christian Erhoff (27), & Steve Downie (20, signed from Philadelphia). These new additions don’t match the talent lost in this stat column, but they also didn’t have Sidney Crosby (36 goals), Chris Kunitz (35 goals), James Neal (27 goals), & Evgeni Malkin (23 goals) on their team.

    Six of the top 11 +/- guys in the regular season have been lost, including Matt Niskanen (33, led team), James Neal (15), Jussi Jokinen (12), Brian Gibbons (five), & Lee Stempniak (five). Included in that, the Penguins also lost eight of the top 17 +/- players during the playoffs. Combined, Brooks Orpik (six), Jussi Jokinen (five), James Neal (two), Brian Gibbons (two), Tanner Glass (zero), Joe Vitale (zero), & Matt Niskanen (negative two) all total to 13, greater than the rest of the remaining team’s score of 12. To make up for these lost numbers, Pittsburgh has signed Nick Spaling (two), Patric Hornqvist (one), & Steve Downie (one). The three of them, though, only rival Jussi Jokinen’s contributions last season, so they will need to improve in that aspect.

    The Penguins lost five of the top nine penalty minute earners in Tanner Glass (90, “led” the Penguins last season), Deryk Engelland (58, signed with Calgary), James Neal (55), Matt Niskanen (51), & Brooks Orpik (46). Sadly, the Pens picked up Steve Downie, who had minutes (106) equal to Neal & Niskanen combined. New hire Nick Spaling only served 14 minutes in the sin bin last season, which averaged out to almost 12 seconds per game. This will be a huge asset to keep the Penguins from defending the power play.

    Present roster consists of 12 forwards, six defensemen, & three goalies (21 men).