Down the Frozen River

Tag: Charlie McAvoy

  • Long-Awaited Offseason Krug Thoughts

    It’s only taken me all offseason, but don’t trade Torey Krug.*

    *At least in a one-for-one with the Edmonton Oilers, anyway.

    There’s been plenty of talk on hockey Twitter among experts, recreational bloggers and fans alike surrounding Boston Bruins top-four defender, Torey Krug, and whether or not the 27-year-old blueliner should be considered an expendable asset for the right return.

    At some point this offseason, rumors swirled that Bruins General Manager Don Sweeney had been in contact with Oilers General Manager Peter Chiarelli with both GMs expressing desire for a defender.

    For starters, Sweeney and Chiarelli are friends.

    Sweeney worked under Chiarelli during Chiarelli’s tenure with Boston and, while it’s likely they talked at some point this offseason– as all friends do– to what extent they delved into their roster concerns, well, that’s not for me to say.

    But with rumors comes speculation on Twitter.

    Polls were created, people became enraged because people tweeted their two cents and… people tweeted. Never tweet.

    In the aftermath of the Krug Twitter War, let’s take one more sensible look at if Boston and Edmonton had worked out a deal this offseason– salary cap be damned.

    Krug notched a career-high 59 points in 76 games for the Bruins in 2017-18. He had eight more points last season than he did in 2016-17 (51 points in 81 games played) and improved his plus/minus from a minus-10 in 2016-17 to an even rating last season.

    There’s a couple of things to takeaway from that.

    First, Krug had 59 points (a career high) last season, which was only three fewer points in five more games played than one of the league’s best blueliners– Erik Karlsson— had in a down season.

    Yes, you read that right, Karlsson had 9-53–62 totals in 71 games for the Ottawa Senators in 2017-18, while Krug had 14-45–59 totals (76 GP) for Boston. Anytime a defender scores more than 10 goals, that’s something to celebrate– let alone when that player reaches a new career-high in scoring.

    And second, Krug’s mistakes are still noticeable.

    When a defenseman makes a mistake it’s usually easier to spot, because it leads directly to a goal against. Krug’s positioning hasn’t always been spot on, but he spent all of last season working with Brandon Carlo on Boston’s second defensive pairing– a season that Carlo is looking to learn from and move on from after failing to score a goal in his sophomore slump.

    Krug’s best career plus/minus (plus-18) came in 79 GP in the President’s Trophy winning 2013-14 season for the Bruins. Since then he’s slipped to plus-13 in 2014-15, plus-9 in 2015-16 and a minus-10 in 2016-17, before rebounding to breaking even in 2017-18.

    Now, I’ll fully acknowledge plus/minus does not tell the full story. Plus/minus alone does not take into account situations like being on the power play, penalty kill or even strength (Krug had 24 power play points last season– only one shy of his career-high 25 points on the power play in 2016-17). That’s where the argument for Corsi Relative, Corsi Close, Corsi Even and all that jazz comes in as another way to measure situational play, but I digress.

    Back to the Oilers for a moment.

    If Krug were to have been swapped in a one-for-one with an Edmonton defender, the Bruins would’ve taken a major step back.

    Boston doesn’t need a young defenseman approaching his prime– they’ve got Charlie McAvoy, Carlo, and Matt Grzelcyk already in those roles with Urho Vaakanainen, Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon (just to name a few) coming down the pipeline in the system.

    In other words, a hypothetical Krug for current-RFA, Darnell Nurse, deal wouldn’t look good. Especially when you look at the stats.

    In just 2017-18 alone, Krug’s 14-45–59 totals in 76 games decimate Nurse’s 6-20–26 totals in 82 games with the Oilers. While shutdown defenders are favorable for their defensive purposes, giving up 33 points from the backend for one player alone isn’t sound. Especially with Krug as Boston’s offensive defenseman centerpiece over the two-way skills of McAvoy.

    Sure, Nurse is only 23, but he needs a new contract as things stand right now with Boston looking at pay raises for both McAvoy (likely a hefty one) and Carlo in the summer of 2019. Then there’s that whole “already in his prime” thing going on with Krug. It’s perfectly fine to hold onto a defender in their prime into their early/mid-30s.

    What about Oscar Klefbom? Could the Bruins improve in a one-for-one involving Krug for him?

    Again, the answer is no.

    Klefbom, 25, is two-years younger than Krug (so that whole “already in his prime thing”, yeah, that’s not favoring Klefbom in this hypothetical) and had 5-16–21 totals in 66 games for the Oilers last season. He was also a minus-12, which was surprisingly worse than everyone’s favorite Chiarelli overvalued blueliner in Edmonton– Kris Russell.

    Russell was a minus-seven in 78 games and had, yep, 4-17–21 totals at 31-years-old.

    Sure, adding Klefbom (6’3″) in place of Krug (5’9″) adds height, but it hinders skill.

    There’s always that change of scenery argument, but there shouldn’t be anything attractive in Edmonton. Hard pass on any and all one-for-ones unless Connor McDavid is involved for some insane reason.

    And for the record, Chiarelli’s prized possession in his biggest one-for-one trade in Edmonton (Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson) had 4-9–13 totals in 63 games last season. Larsson’s only reached the 20-point plateau once in his career (24 points in 64 games for New Jersey in 2014-15). Ouch.

    If you’re thinking of trading Krug for any reason, don’t let it be in a one-for-one with the Oilers.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #121- Four-Year Vets

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #121- Four-Year Vets

    Nick and Connor celebrate the conclusion of the fourth season of the podcast, talk jerseys and logos from the week, the Edmonton Oilers defense and rank the best division by goaltenders.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify.

  • Boston Bruins 2018-19 Projected Lineup

    If you wait long enough into the summer things start to look more concrete– until you really look at the nitty gritty.

    The 2017-18 Boston Bruins were ahead of schedule. They exceeded expectations. They weren’t even supposed to have the kind of season they had until at least this season or next season (if that makes sense), depending on how you broke down General Manager Don Sweeney‘s master three-year plan.

    Like everything, however, this offseason has had some ups and downs.

    Without getting too much into the nonsensically named (okay, it was named after some videogame, read Bob McKenzie’s book Hockey Confidential— shameless plug) advanced stat “PDO”, let’s just say that whenever a team does really well for a season, they usually come back to reality the following season.

    Hockey logic has indicated this in the past, what with the Chicago Blackhawks almost evenly spaced out Stanley Cup championships in 2010, 2013 and 2015 (notice, 2011, 2012 and 2014 did not result in Cups– kind of makes you think)– let alone all of hockey history.

    A long season, while rewarding with a championship run (sometimes), is a grind.

    Not trying to be Debbie Downer here, but let’s just try to look at things with a slice of realism for this season especially.

    Last season they were “too young, too, too young”, but they amassed 50 wins and made it to the Second Round of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs. This season they’re more experienced, but with an unknown and untapped source of depth in both their free agent signings and expected rookie debuts and sophomores.

    Gone are Tim Schaller and Riley Nash— two quality bottom-six forwards who left for Vancouver and Columbus respectively in July. In their place we find Chris Wagner and Joakim Nordstrom. Lateral– but necessary– moves.

    The expectations coming into Schaller and Nash’s two-year deals in the 2016 offseason were that they’d contribute in some way, but nobody could predict Schaller becoming a legitimate fourth liner and Nash amassing 41 points (a career best) in a contract year.

    While Wagner and Nordstrom aren’t your bottom-six fan favorites yet, they share similar parallels of the unknown and are expected to rise to the occasion– whatever that may be as Head Coach Bruce Cassidy will see fit.

    Wagner’s your tough guy and Nordstrom’s a solid penalty killer. The latter will likely see some time with Sean Kuraly on a PK-unit a la Nash and Kuraly from this past season.

    Also departed this offseason are defenseman, Nick Holden (signed with Vegas), and goaltender, Anton Khudobin (signed with Dallas).

    In their place the Bruins signed blueliner John Moore and backup netminder Jaroslav Halak.

    Moore’s five-year deal may seem like a bit much, but at $2.750 million per season, he’s making as much as Adam McQuaid for likely a bottom-pair role that’ll transform into McQuaid’s replacement, should Sweeney look to move the career-long Boston defender or not re-sign him in July 2019.

    Despite being one-year older than Khudobin, Halak is an upgrade as a stable backup goaltender who’s numbers should improve in a more limited role with a better group of skaters in front of him than his now former New York Islanders teammates were the last few seasons.

    Pointless arguments can be made all day (Halak is better than Khudobin), but let’s move on with the actual lineup projection, shall we?

    Actually, let’s digress for another moment. Rick Nash remains undecided about whether or not he’d like to return to the game, so that could always mess everything up.

    Anyway, here’s a look at how the Boston Bruins 2018-19 lineup should shape up:

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    Forward Line 1

    63 Brad Marchand — 37 Patrice Bergeron — 88 David Pastrnak

    Isn’t it obvious? The best line in the NHL from 2017-18 rolls right into 2018-19 intact with the same level of chemistry as before. Sure, you could spread out the points a bit by putting Pastrnak on the second line with David Krejci, but you really don’t have to unless you’re looking to shake things up a bit from time to time.

    Boston’s first line is set for at least the remainder of Patrice Bergeron’s existence– ignoring contracts altogether. Brad Marchand is inseparable from Bergeron and Pastrnak has joined that royalty in his own right, as he continues to emerge as a star.

    Forward Line 2

    74 Jake DeBrusk — 46 David Krejci — 10 Anders Bjork/17 Ryan Donato

    Jake DeBrusk and Krejci go together like Milan Lucic once did on the Czech center’s left side. Except there’s a bit of a difference in DeBrusk’s game– it’s more offensive. The bigger question on Boston’s second line shouldn’t be “what top-six forward will they try to acquire to fill a ‘hole’”, but rather “who will win the job between Anders Bjork and Ryan Donato?”

    For the sake of testing things out in the wake of Bjork’s return from a season-ending injury in 2017-18, Cassidy could insert No. 10 on the second line. Then again, if the Bruins are set on giving Donato a big-time role for a full season, well, then it’ll be Bjork sliding down to line three or line four.

    Donato could be like Pastrnak once was early in his development and be sent to Providence for some seasoning in his game and offensive capabilities at the professional level. However, one difference between Donato’s development and Pastrnak’s development is that Donato stood out on an Olympic level, not just in an international World Junior Championship competition.

    But if you’re looking to give props to Pastrnak, it’s worth mentioning (albeit due to international/minor league transfer rules) that No. 88 in black and gold went pro before Donato while No. 17 in the spoked-B finished his bona fide duties at Harvard University.

    Or just to mess everything else up, perhaps Bjork starts 2018-19 with a stint in Providence.

    Forward Line 3

    43 Danton Heinen — 52 Sean Kuraly — 42 David Backes

    Whoever doesn’t win the second line right wing job (Bjork or Donato) should likely end up on the third line in Boston alongside Danton Heinen and Sean Kuraly. Kuraly, you say?

    Yes, Kuraly will be tested out as a third line center as had been planned since he was part of the Martin Jones trade with the San Jose Sharks. Just how far will his bottom-six forward potential go? Time well tell and the time is now.

    Otherwise Joakim Nordstrom slides right into Riley Nash’s old job much like how he’s already slid into the No. 20 sweater in the Hub.

    Forward Line 4

    14 Chris Wagner — 20 Joakim Nordstrom — 55 Noel Acciari

    Then again, if Bjork or Donato slide just enough, they might end up taking a job from Noel Acciari on the fourth line. Or just maybe Sweeney can console armchair GMs enough with some level justification for having Backes on the fourth line at $6.000 million per season through the 2020-21 season.

    For fans and armchair GMs alike that like a lot of hitting, Chris Wagner is your man. He’s basically the new Matt Beleskey, but without the expectations that ran rampant after Beleskey’s incredible 2015 Stanley Cup Playoff run with the Anaheim Ducks.

    Otherwise, it’s pretty much status quo on the fourth line, despite some new faces in Wagner and Nordstrom– provide a spark. Whatever that is.

    Defensive Pair 1

    33 Zdeno Chara — 73 Charlie McAvoy

    Zdeno Chara wants to play forever (basically) and Charlie McAvoy is the closest thing Bruins fans have seen to a modern-day Ray Bourque in his development and potential.

    On a serious note, Chara intends to play for at least another four years (by then he’ll be 45) and signed a one-year extension (at a $5.000 million cap hit) this spring for the 2018-19 season. McAvoy, on the other hand, seeks to continue his rise to stardom on the blue line moving on to his sophomore season.

    Defensive Pair 2

    47 Torey Krug — 25 Brandon Carlo

    There’s an impetus among armchair GMs to trade Torey Krug for a second line wing and/or other assets, but the fact of the matter is Sweeney and Co. have no legitimate rush to move on from Krug. He might be their biggest piece of trade bait for speculative purposes this season, yet he’s also still part of the top-four defensive core in Boston.

    Meanwhile, Brandon Carlo looks to rebound from a bit of a sophomore slump in which he failed to score a goal. Carlo and Krug had a chemistry that– at best of times– worked well in 2017-18. Like any defender, though, mistakes are usually noticeable, because there’s a puck in the net behind them.

    Defensive Pair 3

    27 John Moore — 86 Kevan Miller

    You’re not going to pay John Moore $2.750 million for the next five seasons to not play him, whereas a guy like Matt Grzelcyk or Brandon Carlo could be at risk of becoming a healthy scratch– and that’s assuming Adam McQuaid who also has a $2.750 million cap hit this season already will be a healthy scratch most nights.

    In the meantime, Kevan Miller has solidified himself as the 5th or 6th defenseman in Boston– for his physicality and impressive play alone– and could further take on McQuaid’s fighter role this season as a deterrence from the waning role of the enforcer around the rest of the league.

    Extra Skaters

    48 Matt Grzelcyk, 54 Adam McQuaid

    Following suit with last season, Grzelcyk will have to win his full-time role out of the gate once again, while McQuaid’s future status with the organization remains cloudy past 2019. So cloudy, in fact, that he’ll be a pending-UFA as of July 2019.

    In the system

    Zach Senyshyn (potential second line RW/bottom six contender), Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (bottom six contender), Jesse Gabrielle (fourth line option at camp), Trent Frederic (bottom six contender), Jack Studnicka (bottom six contender at camp), Jakub Zboril (bottom pair defensive contender), Jeremy Lauzon (bottom pair defensive contender), Zane McIntyre (backup goalie contender at camp), Dan Vladar (backup goalie contender at camp)

    Goalies

    40 Tuukka Rask

    Tuukka Rask is your starting goaltender as he has been since Tim Thomas decided to take a gap year (and was subsequently traded to the Islanders). There is no goaltending controversy, though Jaroslav Halak should provide more consistency in net on the night’s Rask gets to rest.

    In addition to finding the right mix of rest and play, fewer shots against for the third consecutive year since facing a career high 2,011 shots in 70 games in 2014-15 has helped Rask’s focus throughout the season as the Bruins look to go further as a team.

    You win and lose as a team– not solely as a goaltender.

    41 Jaroslav Halak

    Yes, Anton Khudobin bounced back from a disappointing 2016-17 season to an exuberant 2017-18 season, but let’s get this clear– he’s a backup. Khudobin bounced around a bit from the NHL to the AHL and back again in 2016-17, posting a 2.64 goals against average and .904 save percentage in 16 games played.

    He then had a 2.56 GAA and .913 SV% in 31 games as Boston’s backup in 2017-18, which was good enough for his third best season in GAA and SV%, dating back to his first real taste of being a backup NHL goaltender in 2012-13 with Boston (Khudobin appeared in seven NHL games from 2009-12 with Minnesota and the Bruins in dire situations).

    The thing here is a 2.56 GAA is not starting netminder material, no matter how you break down Khudobin’s overall improvement from 2016-17 to 2017-18.

    In the meantime, Jaroslav Halak is poised for career-reset. He’s got a change of scenery from Brooklyn to Boston and with that he won’t be playing in nearly as many games.

    Halak had a 3.19 GAA and .908 SV% in 54 games as New York’s starting goalie, keeping in mind the Islanders suffered a lot of injuries on the blue line last season. He also nearly doubled his workload from a dismal 2016-17 (28 games played) to 2017-18 (54 GP).

    In 2015-16, Halak had a 2.30 GAA and .919 SV% as the Islanders backup netminder in 36 games played. Khudobin, on the other hand, appeared in nine games for the Anaheim Ducks that season, amassing a 2.69 GAA and .909 SV% before being sent down to San Diego (AHL).

    The moral of the story here is that the Bruins have been about giving backups second chances in recent history, whether that’s Chad Johnson, Jonas Gustavsson, Khudobin and now Halak– they’re willing to take that gamble.

    Okay, end Halak vs. Khudobin rant.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #116- Welcome Back to Arby’s

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #116- Welcome Back to Arby’s

    Nick, Connor, Cap’n and Pete reveal the conclusion of their top-10 series, capping things off with the top-10 defenders in their lifetimes, as well as more arbitration and Columbus Blue Jackets talk.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #113- We’re Still UFAs for the Record

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #113- We’re Still UFAs for the Record

    Nick and Connor discuss John Tavares signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Crosby/Malkin vs. Tavares/Matthews argument, best and worst free agency signings and more. At this point, we’re also strangely optimistic about the St. Louis Blues.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • 2018 Offseason Preview: Boston Bruins

    Our offseason previews for all 31 National Hockey League teams continues with the Boston Bruins and their outlook for the summer.

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    The Boston Bruins are ahead of schedule. They weren’t supposed to finish 2nd in the Atlantic Division this season according to most experts. They weren’t supposed to get 50 wins or 112 points, but the 50-20-12 record 2017-18 Bruins made it all the way to the Second Round against the Tampa Bay Lightning after defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games.

    Boston won Game 1.

    Then it all came to a screeching halt, the Bruins lost four straight and were eliminated.

    But fear not, for Bruce Cassidy‘s system is working and General Manager Don Sweeney has a plan. They weren’t supposed to be this good, this soon, but it all fits the bill of winning the Cup within Cassidy’s first three years at a time when Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy, Danton Heinen and Co. emerge as the future core behind Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Zdeno Chara.

    For the entire roster, it was just one more lesson in experience. The postseason is an entirely different animal from regular season action.

    2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Sweeney traded away Boston’s first round pick in the 2018 Draft to the New York Rangers as part of the Ryan Spooner–Rick Nash blockbuster trade prior to the deadline in February.

    Since then, the Bruins GM has indicated he’d like to get in on the deep first round action if he can, amid speculation that Boston is in the running for Ilya Kovalchuk, David Backes could be traded and more.

    Pending free agents

    Boston has almost $7.500 million in cap space available currently with the cap ceiling expected to rise perhaps by as much as $4.000 or $5.000 million, Sweeney still cannot afford to hand out long term contracts with a lot of value willy-nilly.

    He did, however, just re-sign defender Matt Grzelcyk to a cap friendly two-year, $2.800 million ($1.400 million AAV) extension late last week and no it does not mean that Torey Krug is going to be traded. Signing 2017 first round pick, Urho Vaakanainen to his maximum term, maximum value entry-level contract doesn’t mean Krug is gone either– let alone that Vaakanainen will be on the NHL roster this October.

    The Finnish blueliner has to really earn a spot on the Bruins defense this fall. Otherwise things are just going as planned with Vaakanainen’s development and he’ll be fine in Providence (AHL) for a season (at most).

    Pending-UFAs Brian Gionta, 39, Kenny Agostino, 26, and Paul Postma, 29, already know they won’t be back in black-and-gold next season, leaving Riley Nash, 29, Tommy Wingels, 30, Rick Nash, 34, and Tim Schaller, 27 as the only pending UFA skaters on the NHL roster (ignoring Austin Czarnik, 25, and the fact that Agostino and Postma were with the Providence Bruins before season’s end, though all three– Czarnik, Agostino and Postma– played with Boston in relief appearances).

    Sweeney is in the hunt for Kovalchuk and if it comes down to it, he’ll either sign the 35-year-old scorer looking to rejoin the NHL after a five-year journey to the KHL or re-sign 34-year-old Rick Nash– provided the 34-year-old Nash is still on the market.

    It’s a bit of a standoff for the services of a sniper. One that’s almost guaranteed (Kovalchuk) and the other that had a small, injured, sample size already in a Bruins uniform (Nash).

    The other Nash, Riley Nash, could get a pay raise elsewhere if the numbers don’t work out in Boston and I’ve already hinted at why *shameless self plug*.

    Boston needs a second line winger. Whether it’s Rick Nash or Ilya Kovalchuk doesn’t matter. There’s already a youth movement going on and Mark Recchi played until he was 43 on the Bruins 2011 Stanley Cup champion roster.

    Don’t worry about one player– who’s still contributing– getting old. Worry about entire rosters.

    Outside of Boston’s core (Bergeron’s turning 33 this July), Sweeney’s roster is filled to the brim with youth.

    Wingels could see another go-around on the Bruins fourth line if Sweeney deals Backes’s $6.000 million cap hit elsewhere and brings back Schaller. The latter forward (Schaller) had his best career season with 12 goals and 10 assists (22 points) in 82 games played, while Wingels contributed with grit and the occasional surprise goal on the fourth line.

    What’s more important for Boston’s fourth line skaters is the return of pending-RFA, Sean Kuraly.

    The 25-year-old center could play on the third line at times, despite only notching 6-8–14 totals in his first full season of NHL action (75 games). Despite his offensive shortcomings, the Bruins shouldn’t give up on Kuraly with guys like Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson and Trent Frederic breathing down his neck for a bottom-6 forward role on the 2018-19 squad.

    Kuraly had two clutch goals in the short-lived 12-game 2018 postseason run.

    Pending UFA-defender, Nick Holden, 31, is as good as gone as the rental blueliner was acquired as an insurance policy for a deep run that didn’t come to fruition.

    Sweeney won’t have to do much this offseason. Find a second line winger, work on bringing some key glue guys back (if possible) and re-sign or sign a new backup goaltender.

    You’ll notice “find another top-4 defender” isn’t included in this list. A healthy Brandon Carlo shakes things up in the 2018 postseason. More experience under McAvoy’s reign or the insertion of Jeremy Lauzon or Jakub Zboril on the blueline can make a difference too.

    Boston doesn’t have to rush and overpay for the services of a top-4 blueliner– unless they have John Carlson or the like in mind.

    That’s right, Anton Khudobin, 32, is a pending-UFA.

    While Khudobin held down the fort in October and early November, the backup goalie is not a starter. He loves Boston and the city, rightfully, loves him back for his best performance in goals against average (2.56) and save percentage (.913) in 31 games played since his 2013-14 campaign with the Carolina Hurricanes (a 2.30 GAA and .926 SV% in 36 games played).

    There isn’t a huge goalie market, which could do favors for Khudobin if he’s looking for a healthy pay raise, but for Sweeney and the Bruins means he might have to fork something up to retain the services of his backup or acquire a new one.

    Then again, Zane McIntyre and Dan Vladar have a healthy competition in the system for the backup role to starting goaltender, Tuukka Rask, 31, and his $7.000 million cap hit through the 2020-21 season.

    Rask posted a 2.36 GAA and .917 SV% in 54 games played this season with a 34-14-5 record. He had his third-straight 30-plus win season and was right in the sweet spot for number of games played as a starter (he was four appearances shy of matching his 58-game appearance in 2013-14 with the Bruins– the same season Boston won its 2nd President’s Trophy in franchise history).

    Now, as for why the Bruins would look to move Backes (I’m sure you’ve been wondering), it’s a simple game of math. Freeing up $6.000 million in cap space makes signing Kovalchuk or John Tavares more attractive, while also leaving an open door for maybe re-signing glue guys like Riley Nash and Tim Schaller.

    And no, Boston won’t bring Milan Lucic back for a second stint with the organization like they did with Glen Murray years ago. Sweeney’s looking to rid the organization of a bad $6.000 million contract, not trying to add one in the form of an Edmonton Oiler’s forward who had his worst season since the lockout shortened 2012-13 season and his injury shortened 50 game season in 2009-10.

    Plus, Boston still has Matt Beleskey ($1.900 million, retained salary) on the books through the end of 2018-19, Dennis Seidenberg‘s $1.167 million cap hit through 2019-20 (thanks to a buyout) and Jimmy Hayes‘s $866,667 cap hit through the end of 2018-19 (another buyout) on the books.

    Waiting a year to then buyout Backes’s remaining contract isn’t an option either, for the record.

    It’s either find a trading partner or live with the consequences.

    And no, just trading David Krejci without taking care of Backes at some point doesn’t fix things either. That’d actually hurt the team in its roster depth. Krejci is your surefire second line center (unless Tavares comes into the equation), which is not something Backes could handle at this point in his career.

    Other pending free agents throughout the organization include:

    Justin Hickman (RFA), Chris Breen (UFA), Colby Cave (RFA), Tommy Cross (UFA), Austin Czarnik (UFA), and Anton Blidh (RFA)

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #106- We Recorded This Before Vegas Won (Unedited)

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #106- We Recorded This Before Vegas Won (Unedited)

    The Original Trio reunite for a special look at the Carolina Hurricanes, Buffalo Sabres, college coaches landing NHL jobs and Conference Finals takeaways. Also, we meant Andrei Svechnikov.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • Riley Nash could be this summer’s big mistake (or not)

    Every year there’s a Brooks Orpik, Matt Beleskey, David Backes or Karl Alzner in the free agent market and this summer, it’s Riley Nash.

    He exceeded expectations, he outperformed everything beyond imagination– in his contract year, after a 17-point (7 goals, 10 assists) season in 2016-17.

    His 15-26–41 totals included two power play goals and three power play points, but no shorthanded goals and no shorthanded points while being one of Boston’s biggest penalty killers.

    His CorsiFor% has remained stagnant around 52.00% for the last three seasons.

    Consistent? Yes. Bound to be the next mistake by a GM that’s willing to throw money around carelessly? Also yes.

    How much of Riley Nash is the real Riley Nash? How much of his play this season was impacted by playing alongside impressive rookie Danton Heinen and David Backes– let alone his appearances on Boston’s first line with Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak when the Bruins were hampered by injuries down the middle?

    Riley Nash isn’t a passenger, but rather this offseason’s biggest miss for a team looking to buy low and potentially sell high when they realize that one free agent signing alone won’t make all the difference in terms of depth and contending for a playoff spot– depth that you can’t otherwise have if you sign too many top-nine forwards to too big of a contract.

    At 29-years-old, Nash cannot get any better from a physical potential standpoint. In a game that’s getting younger and placing more emphasis on speed and skill than ever before, he may be out of an NHL job by the time he’s 35.

    In his best seasons as a member of the Carolina Hurricanes, Nash had 24, 25 and 22 point seasons from 2013-16. Through 59 games into this season, he bested his career-high 25 points in 2014-15 with 10-18–28 totals.

    He added five goals and eight more assists in 17 games over the course of the remainder of the season, before being shutdown thanks to a shot to the side of the head as a result of friendly fire from defender Torey Krug.

    For someone who hadn’t reached the 40-point plateau before, 41 points sounded impressive. Yet his faceoff win percentage has remained stagnant in his full-time NHL days around 48 percent. He’s never scored 20 goals and just broke the 20-assist plateau this season– his seventh year in the NHL.

    Happy accidents are great.

    They’re fun to watch as players soar and teams roll along, but from a management standpoint there’s only so much cap room to work with.

    When Beleskey had his 22-10–32 totals in 65 games with the Anaheim Ducks in 2014-15, the Boston Bruins had a need for someone that could become their immediate fill-in on the second line to replace Milan Lucic (who had been traded that June to the Los Angeles Kings).

    Beleskey signed a long-term, five-year contract worth $3.800 million AAV with Boston that July and followed up a successful season in Anaheim with a career high 37 points (15 goals, 22 assists) in 80 games in his first year as a member of the Bruins in 2015-16.

    Despite attaining career highs in assists and points in a season, Beleskey’s point-per-game production decreased. It fell off the face of the Earth when injuries and a lack of offense led to just three goals and five assists (eight points) in 49 games the following season (2016-17).

    Then through 14 games played in 2017-18 with the Bruins, Beleskey had nothing to show on the scoresheet.

    He was later traded as an afterthought in the blockbuster, Rick Nash–Ryan Spooner deal this February.

    As part of taking on Rick Nash’s contract, both teams had to eat some salary and the Bruins ended up retaining $1.900 million of Beleskey’s cap hit through the end of his contract (July 1, 2020).

    While Riley Nash turned heads around the league, becoming a more prominent bottom-six forward, that’s just it– he’s a bottom-six forward, who– like Beleskey did in July 2015, is about to get paid.

    Even though Nash brings more offensive upside to his game than Beleskey does, they could be making the same salary because of one outlier season.

    One good season is not an indication of consistency.

    But NHL GMs have a tendency to eat it up and see a (possibly) short-term fix for an otherwise thought to be long-term hole on their roster.

    The ebbs and flows of the market will always lead to poor financial planning in the long run for some teams. Riley Nash does deserve a raise for his efforts with Boston while on a $900,000 cap hit the last two seasons, but buyer beware– maybe not at the price you think.

    If you’re willing to take a risk and have the right combination of youth that can help boost his numbers, then Nash is the guy for your team– provided you already have that youth locked up and you aren’t projecting someone else coming up through your system to battle for a roster spot any time soon.

    There hasn’t been much of an indication as to how much a guy like Riley Nash might ask for in terms of money this offseason, nor has there been any public indication of how long of a deal he’d like to sign.

    That can be a blessing in disguise, if you consider the fact that Rick Nash will likely be available this July too, but at substantially more dollars for about the same impact on a roster (Rick Nash had 20-13–33 totals this season in 71 games with the New York Rangers and Bruins).

    Both Nashs are third liners at best that can play on a second or first line if your team is struggling (looking for a creative spark) or going through a lot of injuries.

    For comparisons sake, if you’re an NHL GM looking to avoid signing “the worst contract of the summer”, then signing Riley Nash (or literally anyone) at less money than Rick Nash will make you look pretty good.

    Rick Nash has sheer name-brand power. Riley Nash, on the other hand, has being one of the funniest, nicest, underrated guys in the locker room going for him.

    But Rick Nash has already indicated he’d be willing to re-sign with Boston “if the dollars work out”. Given Boston’s salary cap navigation with Charlie McAvoy entering a contract year in 2018-19 (his final year on his current entry-level deal), the chances of Rick Nash being back in a Bruins uniform at $5.000 million-plus are slim.

    Especially when there’s pending-RFA Austin Czarnik to re-sign and others. For Boston, Czarnik may be the key to moving on from Riley Nash if the younger Nash has truly priced himself out.

    Sean Kuraly and Czarnik can compete for the third line center job, while the loser reigns as the fourth line center– and that’s ignoring Trent Frederic, Jack Studnicka, Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson, Colby Cave and others in the system that’ll also be fighting for roster spots at training camp.

  • Bolts advance to Eastern Conference Final with 3-1 win in Game 5

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    The Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Boston Bruins, 3-1, on Sunday, eliminating Boston in five games en route to the third round of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    Call it an Eastern Conference Finals Appearance Dynasty if you want, but Tampa has one thing in their sight if they can get four more wins this postseason— winning their 2nd Cup in franchise history. This year’s appearance in the Eastern Conference Final marks just the third time in the last four years that the Lightning are a participant (2015 vs NYR, 2016 vs PIT & 2018).

    For the first time in the series, the team that scored first in the game lost the game.

    Andrei Vasilevskiy made 27 saves on 28 shots against for a .964 save percentage in the win for the Lightning, while Boston’s Tuukka Rask turned aside 19 out of 21 shots faced for a .905 SV% in the loss.

    Tampa got out to a quick start in the overall flow of the game, controlling its pace and puck possession as the Bruins got out to another slow start.

    Charlie McAvoy gave a quick cross check to Brayden Point about seven minutes into the first period and gave the Lightning their first power play of the afternoon. The Bolts did not convert on the skater advantage.

    Boston outlasted the ten-minute mark in the opening frame, unlike the previous two games in the series where the Lightning held a 2-0 lead halfway through the first period.

    David Backes bumped Anthony Cirelli into Boston’s net and was handed a minor penalty for interference at 11:52. Tampa’s 5-on-4 power play was short-lived as defender, Victor Hedman, held Bruins forward, Brad Marchand, and received a minor infraction for holding.

    Marchand was also penalized for embellishment on the call, so the Lightning would still be on the power play at 12:04 of the first period.

    Late in the first, Dan Girardi, checked Sean Kuraly without the puck and the Bruins went on the power play. About a minute later, Cedric Paquette, tripped David Pastrnak at 18:06 of the first period and Boston’s 5-on-4 advantage became a 5-on-3 advantage for 56 seconds.

    Shortly after Girardi’s penalty expired, David Krejci (3) received a pass from McAvoy and fired a one-timer past Vasilevskiy as the Lightning goaltender was moving side-to-side in the crease.

    McAvoy (4) and Patrice Bergeron (10) had the assists on Krejci’s power play goal at 19:12 of the first period and Boston jumped out to the lead, 1-0.

    Entering the first intermission, the Bruins were ahead on the scoreboard, 1-0, and in shots on goal, 9-7. Boston also held on to an advantage in blocked shots (6-5), while Tampa was leading in hits (13-9) and giveaways (3-2) after one period. The B’s were 1/2 on the power play and the Bolts were 0/2 on the man advantage through 20 minutes of play.

    Much like the start of the game, the Lightning came out of the gates in the second period at full throttle as Boston was making turnover after turnover.

    Those turnovers proved to be costly past the halfway mark in the second period, as Krejci gave up the puck to Point (4) who promptly buried a shot in the twine with Rask out of position due to Krejci’s complete redirection of the play.

    Point’s goal was unassisted and tied the game, 1-1, at 10:43.

    Shortly thereafter, Rick Nash, took a shot from a teammate off the right knee and needed some assistance down the tunnel. The elder Nash on Boston’s roster would return to the action.

    J.T. Miller followed through on a hit delivered to Bruins veteran, David Backes, wherein both players collided helmets and Backes fell to the ice, motionless, save for reaching for his head. He did not return to the game.

    No penalty was assessed on the play.

    Bergeron was sent to the box for tripping Ondrej Palat at 13:31 of the second period and the Lightning capitalized on the ensuing man advantage just 29 seconds later.

    Miller (2) fired a shot home at 14:00 of the second period to give Tampa a one-goal lead, 2-1, on what would become the game-winning, series-clinching, goal. Nikita Kucherov (6) and Steven Stamkos (7) notched the assists on the goal.

    With the Bolts ahead by one on the scoreboard after two periods, shots on goal were even, 14-14. Both teams had a power play goal and the Bruins had a slight advantage in blocked shots (10-8).

    Boston went stride for stride with Tampa in the third period, as Rask kept his team in the game, but the Bruins could not muster a shot on goal that would go past Vasilevskiy and even the score.

    Late in the third, Ryan McDonagh tripped up Pastrnak and was sent to the sin bin for two-minutes. Boston could not capitalize on the power play as time ticked down from under five minutes to go to under two minutes left in regulation.

    Bruce Cassidy used his timeout with 3:16 remaining in the game and pulled his goaltender for an extra skater with a little over 90 seconds left in the season.

    A faceoff in the attacking zone resulted in a defensive zone win for the Lightning, where Anton Stralman had a clear lane to flip the puck the length of the ice into the empty four-by-six frame in Boston’s end.

    Stalman (1) scored his first goal of the 2018 postseason and made it, 3-1, Tampa at 18:31 of the third period. Hedman (6) had the only assist on the goal.

    Rask vacated the goal again with less than a minute left, but it was all for naught as the Lightning finished the Bruins’s playoff hopes.

    After a 60-minute effort, the Bolts had a 3-1 victory, clinching the series, 4-1. Boston finished the afternoon leading in shots on goal, 28-22, while the Lightning led in blocked shots (17-12), hits (37-29), giveaways (9-8) and faceoff win percentage (55-45). Both teams went 1/3 on the power play on the afternoon.

    Tampa head coach, Jon Cooper, heads to his third career Eastern Conference Final behind the bench with the Lightning, while the Bruins fall to 0-24 all-time when trailing, 3-1, in a best-of-seven game series.

    Boston was without defenseman, Torey Krug, on Sunday as a result of his lower body injury sustained in Game 4. Nick Holden made his Bruins playoffs debut  in Krug’s place.

    The Lightning await the winner of the Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins series to find out who they’ll battle in the last playoff round before the Stanley Cup Final. Washington currently leads their series with Pittsburgh, 3-2.

  • Tampa tops Boston in OT, can win series on Sunday

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    The Tampa Bay Lightning thundered along to a 4-3 overtime win in Game 4 at TD Garden against the Boston Bruins on Friday night. Dan Girardi scored the game-winning goal on a deflection and the Lightning will take a 3-1 series lead into Game 5 on home ice.

    Bolts goaltender, Andrei Vasilevskiy, turned aside 29 shots on 32 shots faced for a .906 save percentage in the win, while Boston netminder, Tuukka Rask, made 24 saves on 28 shots against for an .857 SV% in the loss.

    Entering Friday night, the team that scored the game’s first goal went on to win the game in every game so far in this series.

    So when Brayden Point (3) forced a turnover, split Boston’s first defensive pair (Zdeno Chara and Charlie McAvoy), fired a shot on Rask, then pocketed his own rebound the fate of Game 4 was thought to be sealed just 4:36 into the action.

    And through a series of events– technically speaking– it did as the “first-goal –> win the game” trend continued.

    Minutes later, Rick Nash was penalized for tripping Tampa’s captain, Steven Stamkos, despite replay showing what might otherwise be dubbed “another controversial bad call in this, the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs” at 7:17 of the first period.

    A little more than a minute later, as the Bruins struggled to get the puck out of their own defensive zone, Chara cleared the puck straight out of the playing surface and over the glass, thereby attaining the automatic minor penalty for delay of game.

    The Lightning went to work on their 5-on-3 advantage and Nikita Kucherov (6) gave his team a two-goal lead on a one-timer fired from the faceoff dot to the left of Rask.

    Victor Hedman (5) and Stamkos (6) had the assists on Kucherov’s goal (his first point of the series) and Tampa had a 2-0 lead seven seconds short of the halfway mark in the first period at TD Garden.

    The Bolts were leading in shots on goal, 8-2, at the 9:53 mark of the first period.

    Yanni Gourde followed up with a tripping minor of his own at 11:21 after taking down Bruins defender, Matt Grzelcyk, with his stick. Boston would not convert on their first power play of the night, but a few moments later, Stamkos and Rick Nash just couldn’t keep themselves away from each other (a trend that would continue deep into the night between these two players, let alone entire rosters).

    Stamkos caught Nash with an illegal check to the head and was assessed a minor penalty at 14:45 of the first period.

    On the ensuing power play, the Bruins generated scoring chance after scoring chance, but just couldn’t beat Vasilevskiy until David Pastrnak (6) worked his Czech magic, batting a puck out of the air, to score a power play goal and cut the Lightning’s lead in half, 2-1.

    Torey Krug (8) and Brad Marchand (12) had the assists on Pastrnak’s goal at 15:28.

    Heading into the first intermission, Tampa led, 2-1, on the scoreboard and in shots on goal, 11-9. The Bolts also led in blocked shots (9-5), hits (13-12) and takeaways (2-0), while both teams had five giveaways each and were 50-50 in faceoff win percentage. Additionally, the Lightning were 1/2 and the Bruins were 1/2 on the power play through one period of action.

    Less than a minute— 43 seconds to be exact— into the second period, Tampa’s Tyler Johnson, tripped Pastrnak and Boston went back on the power play.

    Fashionably late into the power play, the Bruins converted on a stereotypical power play goal from Patrice Bergeron (5) whereby the veteran center acted as the bumper from reception of the pass by Krug to the ensuing one-timer past Vasilevskiy.

    Krug (9) had the only assist on the goal and Boston had tied the game, 2-2, at 2:04 into the second period.

    A few minutes later, Nash and Stamkos found each other again, except Nash was the recipient of a controversial tripping minor (though not nearly as controversial as later calls and non-calls that ultimately played a hand in the course of the game, for better or worse).

    The Lightning did not score on the power play and the Bruins killed off Nash’s tipping minor.

    Through 40 minutes of hockey, the game was tied, 2-2, and the Bruins had rallied to lead in shots on goal, 23-15. Tampa held onto the advantage in blocked shots (14-12), hits (24-23) and giveaways (8-6), while Boston had an advantage in takeaways (9-6) and faceoff win percentage (62-38). After two periods, the Bolts were 1/3 on the power play and the B’s were 2/3.

    Noel Acciari led things off on the event sheet in the third period with a phantom hooking call against Hedman at 5:34. This level of consistency would not be upheld later in the third en route to Tampa’s game tying goal, staying par for the course on the level of officiating in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs league-wide.

    While shorthanded, Marchand led a break alongside Bergeron and threw the puck towards the Bruins center, whereby Bergeron (6) redirected it into the twine and gave Boston their first lead of the night, 3-2, on a shorthanded goal.

    Marchand (13) had the only assist on Bergeron’s second goal of the night at 6:36 of the third period.

    Johnson slashed Chara less than a minute later, but the B’s were not able to convert on the resulting player advantage.

    Following a hold on McAvoy by Kucherov that went unnoticed, the Lightning worked the puck in the offensive zone from J.T. Miller over to Stamkos (3) for a blast that went past Rask and knotted the game, 3-3, almost a few minutes past the halfway mark of the third period.

    Miller (5) officially recorded the only assist on Stamkos’s tying goal at 12:56 of the third.

    Regulation time would turn out to not be enough for Boston and Tampa to determine a winner, so for the first time in the series (as well as for both teams in the 2018 postseason), overtime became necessary.

    After 60 minutes, the score was tied, 3-3, with the Bruins outshooting the Bolts, 30-26. Tampa led in blocked shots (23-18), hits (32-30) and giveaways (14-13), while Boston led in takeaways (12-8) and faceoff win percentage (63-38). The Lightning would finish the night 1/4 on the power play and the B’s went 2/4 on the advantage.

    Krug left the third period with what would later be classified as a “lower body injury” per the Bruins PR team and did not return to the action in Game 4.

    Just past the three-minute mark in overtime, after Boston had a couple quality scoring chances, Dan Girardi (2) tipped a shot past Rask as a little puck luck went a long way for the Lightning.

    Alex Killorn (2) and Gourde (4) notched the assists on the game-winning overtime goal at 3:18 of the overtime period and Tampa finished off Game 4 on the road with a 4-3 victory.

    Boston finished the night leading in shots on goal, 32-28, and in faceoff win percentage, 62-38. Meanwhile, the Lightning had cemented a 3-1 series lead and led in blocked shots (24-19), hits (33-30) and giveaways (15-13).

    Tampa can clinch a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals for the third time in four years (2015, 2017 and present) with a win on home ice in Game 5 of their Second Round series with Boston on Sunday afternoon at Amalie Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for a little after 3 p.m. ET and viewers in the United States can tune in on NBC. Fans in Canada can catch the action on CBC or TVAS.