Down the Frozen River

Tag: Calvin Thurkauf

  • Columbus Blue Jackets 2021-22 Season Preview

    Columbus Blue Jackets 2021-22 Season Preview

    2020-21 record 18-26-12, 48 points

    8th in the Discover NHL Central Division

    Missed the postseason for the first time since 2016

    Additions: F Sean Kuraly, F Zac Rinaldo, F Jakub Voracek (acquired from PHI), D Jake Bean (acquired from CAR), D Adam Boqvist (acquired from CHI)

    Subtractions: F Cam Atkinson (traded to PHI), F Zac Dalpe (signed with FLA), F Mikhail Grigorenko (KHL), F Mikko Koivu (retired), F Ryan MacInnis (signed with BUF), F Stefan Matteau (signed with COL), F Cliff Pu (ICEHL), F Kole Sherwood (signed with OTT), F Daniel Zaar (KHL), D Adam Clendening (signed with PHI), D Michael Del Zotto (signed with OTT), D Seth Jones (traded to CHI)

    Still Unsigned: F Brandon Dubinsky, F Calvin Thürkauf (NL, CBJ reserve list)

    Re-signed: F Patrik Laine, F Alexandre Texier, D Gavin Bayreuther (expansion, SEA, then signed as UFA with CBJ), D Mikko Lehtonen

    Offseason Analysis: First off, where do we even start with how hard this offseason has been for the Blue Jackets organization?

    The loss of Matiss Kivlenieks is paramount in how Columbus approaches the season– honoring their fallen teammate along the way– as well as where they go from here with respect to future decisions in the crease.

    Kivlenieks had potential to be selected by the Seattle Kraken at the expansion draft. He had potential to become the Blue Jackets’ backup in the near future if the team had moved Joonas Korpisalo or Elvis Merzlikins prior to choosing one or the other next July anyway as both Korpisalo and Merzlikins are pending-unrestricted free agents.

    In what’s become an all too familiar reminder lately, tragedy, as with death, is part of life.

    He was a kind soul that was taken from us too soon.

    Columbus welcomed home Dublin, Ohio native, Sean Kuraly on a four-year contract worth $2.500 million per season as the 28-year-old departed his bottom-six role with the Boston Bruins for more money and a change of scenery as his production dropped from 23 points (six goals, 17 assists) in 69 games in 2019-20 to nine points (four goals, five assists) in 47 games last season.

    The Blue Jackets are hoping Kuraly’s arrival will feature a resurgence unlike when Riley Nash left Boston on a high-note and faltered in his Columbus tenure before being traded at last season’s trade deadline to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

    Whereas Mikko Koivu joined Columbus for the 2020-21 season prior to retiring from the NHL after seven games in a Blue Jackets uniform, Blue Jackets General Manager, Jarmo Kekäläinen, can count on Kuraly to patch up the bottom-six– especially the fourth line– without the prospect of sudden retirement.

    There’s a familiar face in town this season as Jakub Voracek is back in a Blue Jackets jersey for the first time since the 2010-11 season after Kekäläinen dealt Cam Atkinson to the Philadelphia Flyers in a one-for-one trade as the Flyers looked to save some salary for other important areas.

    Voracek, like Kuraly, could use a bit of a resurgence as of late after his numbers dropped from 66 points in 78 games with Philadelphia in 2018-19 to 56 points in 69 games with Philly in 2019-20 and, most recently, 9-34–43 totals in 53 games with the Flyers last season.

    Interestingly enough, the 32-year-old forward has never scored more than 23 goals in a season (set back in 82 games in 2013-14 with Philadelphia) and had three consecutive seasons of 20 or more goals from 2012-13 through 2014-15 and again from 2016-17 through 2018-19.

    Columbus also grabbed the rights to Jake Bean in a trade with the Carolina Hurricanes and signed Bean to a three-year extension– incorporating the 23-year-old defender as part of the Blue Jackets’ blue line reform in the aftermath of one of the biggest trades this offseason.

    After stating that he wouldn’t sign an extension with Columbus, Seth Jones was dealt to Chicago with a 2021 1st round pick (32nd overall, Nolan Allan) and a 2022 6th round pick for Adam Boqvist, a 2021 1st round pick (12th overall, Cole Sillinger), a 2021 2nd round pick that was when flipped to Carolina for Bean and a conditional 2022 1st round pick.

    If Chicago wins one of the 2022 draft lotteries, then the 2022 1st round pick becomes a 2023 1st round pick and in any case, the Blue Jackets aren’t paying Jones $9.500 million per season when his new extension kicks in next season.

    Except Columbus then turned around and gave Zach Werenski a six-year extension worth $9.583 million that goes into effect starting with the 2022-23 season through 2027-28.

    At the very least, it shows that the Blue Jackets are willing to commit dollars and term to a player in their organization, though with the steep prices paid by teams for defensive talent via free agency, trades and in extensions this offseason, only time will tell if it was truly worth it.

    Werenski is 24-years-old and will be turning 31 shortly after this extension expires.

    The good news is that it’ll cover his defensive prime, as long as he can stay healthy and at that high level of competition.

    The bad news is that Columbus could be playing with fire if their ongoing overhaul doesn’t pan out soon enough.

    Speaking of the changing of seasons, Brad Larsen went from being an assistant coach with the team to being named the 10th head coach in franchise history after John Tortorella was told his contract would not be renewed.

    Larsen’s been around in the Blue Jackets organization since the 2010-11 season when he was named as an assistant coach with the Springfield Falcons (AHL). He spent two seasons in that role before becoming the Falcons’ head coach from 2012-14, prior to being called up to being behind the bench in Columbus as an assistant coach from the 2014-15 season through 2020-21.

    Perhaps Patrik Laine can get a chance to relax and play his game his way– as with the rest of the young Blue Jackets players– growing and developing in accordance with their preferred styles instead of being told to conform to a universal 200-foot style game.

    That’s not to say that Tortorella’s tenure with Columbus wasn’t worth it, but rather to point out that it takes the right kind of players to perform under a certain structure and the Blue Jackets shifted away from that over the years.

    Offseason Grade: C

    Columbus didn’t do anything irrational and avoided the potential salary cap hell that might come with Jones’ extension in Chicago given his recent decline.

    That said, they also then willingly gave Werenski what Jones was asking for and then some because surely they weren’t afraid of history repeating itself or anything.

    Regardless, Kekäläinen still has about $10.4 million in cap space for 2021-22, which means they won’t necessarily be good enough for playoff contention, but that’s the point.

    Either Columbus will get lucky and strike it rich with what they’ve got, the systems Larsen develops and the new additions here and there or they’ll fall further in the standings and get lucky in the 2022 Draft Lottery.

  • Columbus Blue Jackets 2020-21 Forecast and 20-Game Update

    Columbus Blue Jackets 2020-21 Forecast and 20-Game Update

    Welcome back to another exciting rendition of “let’s trust the guy with a degree in communication to do some basic math stuff”.

    As you are hopefully already aware, I kept the 2019-20 forecasts under wraps simply because I didn’t have the time and/or motivation to write up an explanation for each and every one of them.

    Even still, I’m “behind” on 2020-21 posts given that the Columbus Blue Jackets have already reached the 20-game mark of the season.

    That’s why we’re looking at both what the expectations were coming into the condensed 56-game schedule, as well as how things are holding up after the first, well, almost half the season.

    If you’re a fan of numbers and things, you probably already read about this “catch-up format” in my first forecast for the Boston Bruins roster entering 2020-21. If you’re just a Blue Jackets fan, I’ve done my best to paraphrase my own writing, but you can go back and read it if you feel inclined.

    As always, keep in mind that my degree is in communication and my minor was in sport management. My Intro to Stats class only fulfilled the math portion of my “general education” and met once-a-week at night for two-and-a-half hours in the fall 2013 semester.

    I actually learned how to use the forecast function in Microsoft Excel in one of my sport management classes. Besides that, I got a “C” in that Intro to Stats class, so my credentials for doing this seem promising, right?

    First year players are impossible to predict until they’ve had at least one National Hockey League game under their belt.

    Young players that have had minimal NHL experience may also reflect “inflated” results– Liam Foudy’s forecasted assists entering the 2020-21 season has been highlighted for this reason.

    Entering this season, he had only been part of two career NHL games and had one assist in that span. The forecasting function accounts for a player’s entire career and does some mathematics to come up with something over a predetermined number of games for the upcoming season (in this year’s case, 56).

    In other words, Foudy’s forecast after 20 team games played should look a bit more “realistic”, for the lack of a better term.

    A forecast is not the same as predicting pace.

    Foudy has three assists in 12 games played in 2020-21, for example, and is forecasted to finish with about 11 on the season, whereas he is currently on pace for about eight helpers.

    There are numerous variables that can, and will, impact a players’ performance throughout the year, including injuries, being a healthy scratch (or on the taxi squad), other American Hockey League related or waiver related transactions, sickness, COVID protocol, suspensions and general superstitions related to individual routines, beliefs, etc. (getting enough sleep before a game, wearing a certain lucky tie, using the same undershirt or shoulder pads for the last 13 years or whatever).

    Players can get “hot” or “cold” at any point.

    It’s not something that can be accounted for in a numerical forecast that sets aside the “eye test” until you try to figure out the nuances of how or why a player is playing the way they are playing.

    In a perfect timeline, this forecast pretends nothing bad could ever happen and every Blue Jackets player lives up to their expectations. In reality, some will pan out, some will exceed expectations and some will fall short for whatever reason.

    It’s an educated guess for an outcome in a sport that’s highly unpredictable due to its collectivistic nature and sheer puck luck.

    Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 0 Games (56 Games Remaining)

    First up, let’s take a look at how things were expected to go coming into the 2020-21 season.

    Prior to being traded to the Winnipeg Jets for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic, Dubois was forecasted to lead Columbus in scoring with 16-22–38 totals this season.

    New acquisition, Max Domi, was forecasted as a close second to Dubois with 37 points– leading the team in assists in the process with 25 (among NHL regulars last season, since Foudy technically was forecasted to lead in assists among Blue Jackets with 28).

    Of course, Dubois was traded and Laine and Roslovic are off to hot starts with Columbus– scoring goals in bunches when they find the scoresheet, it seems. We’ll get to that in a minute.

    Cam Atkinson was forecasted to score 19 goals prior to the start of the 2020-21 season, which leads Dubois’ 16 forecasted goals and Gustav Nyquist’s 14 forecasted goals on the roster.

    Dubois, of course, was traded and Nyquist is out due to injury for most of this season, so… that checks out.

    On defense, Zach Werenski and Seth Jones were expected to continue to lead with the way with 33 and 27 points, respectively, from the blue line.

    Both defenders are expected to amass 21 assists this season– good enough for the third most forecasted among Blue Jackets skaters entering this season.

    In the crease, John Tortorella will have to find the right balance between Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins.

    There’s potential for a really solid goaltending duo in Columbus if Korpisalo is the starter and can best his 2.66 forecasted goals against average, as well as his forecasted .911 save percentage, while Merzlikins manages to find a way to reach his 2.35 forecasted GAA and .923 forecasted SV%.

    Of course, after 20 team games played, Merzlikins is currently out with an upper body injury, so time will tell if he can return to form.

    Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 20 Games (36 Games Remaining)

    Through 20 games of the 2020-21 season, the Blue Jackets are three points outside of the last playoff spot in the Discover NHL Central Division, trailing the Chicago Blackhawks for this season’s 4th place cutoff line.

    The acquisition of Laine and Roslovic have been quite a welcome sight for Columbus fans, though consistency from the rest of the lineup remains to be an issue.

    Laine, however, is currently forecasted to lead the team in goals (26) and points (46), while Roslovic is on track for 10-17–27 totals, which is about what he had in 71 games with the Jets last season (29 points).

    Using the current forecasted totals, Roslovic is on track for about .551 points per game this season. He had .408 points per game with Winnipeg in 2019-20.

    Atkinson remains in the top-three in scoring, trailing Laine in goals and points with 20 forecasted goals and 39 forecasted points, respectively, while Oliver Bjorkstrand is currently forecasted to amass 15-21–36 totals (the third most on the current roster).

    On the blue line, Jones leads the way among defenders in points (32), as well as all skaters in assists with 27 forecasted assists through 20 team games played in the 2020-21 season.

    Werenski is more in line with what you’d expect from a young defender of his caliber (8-16–24 forecasted totals) and has missed time due to injury, so that’s clearly a factor in his forecasted drop from before the season began to now.

    In the crease, Korpisalo is sure to get more starts than Merzlikins as the latter is currently injured.

    Korpisalo’s current forecast yields a goals against average between 2.59-2.63, while Merzlikins is on track for a 2.29-2.33 in however many games he ends up getting.

    Why the range in GAA?

    That’s new for this season.

    It’s just to show a range between what the forecasted total is according to the model and what the adjusted forecast shows (calculated based on the forecasted goals allowed/forecasted minutes multiplied by 60, as one would traditionally do with goals allowed/minutes played multiplied by 60 to determine GAA).

    I’m no statistician and I felt like there might be a way to try to get a better read on how things are going for goaltenders (with or without enough necessary data to yield a “realistic” result).

    Don’t make any bets using only this forecast. If you’re a professional, you probably already know that.

    Anyway, Korpisalo has a forecasted range between .912 and .913 in save percentage through 20 team games played and Merzlikins is on track for between a .923 and a .924 in SV%.

    Again, a similar principle applies here.

    One end of the range is the straight up forecast, while the other is influenced by forecasted saves/forecasted shots against.

    Well, that does it for this forecast. Tune in after 40 team games played to see how things might go down the stretch (the final 16 games this season).

  • Why Jackets Fans Need to Step Off the Ledge

    This has definitely not been the season that Jackets fans had hoped for in September or even the season it seemed like it would be in late October.  Sitting outside of a playoff spot with a week to go before the trade deadline is less than ideal.  With the Devils now seven points ahead of the Jackets with 23 games left, the only spot left for them in the playoffs may be the eighth seed and a first round matchup against Tampa Bay, a team they have struggled mightily against this year.

    Even if they went on a tear and somehow got the sixth or seventh seed, they would likely find themselves playing the Penguins or Capitals in round one, two other teams they have not played particularly well against.  The loss yesterday to Pittsburgh was not encouraging–a team built around speed looked slow and lethargic compared to the Pens (even more amazing when you consider the Jackets are the younger team) and the Jackets’ Vezina-winning goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky again struggled to solve the Penguins.

    Many fans are frustrated.  They want results and are tired of waiting.  I certainly understand this, but I also think that perspective is needed and last year’s unexpected season probably had us thinking the team was closer than it was just as the prior season’s disastrous performance had us thinking the team was further away that it actually was.

    I’m going to take you back in time to April of 2016 at the end of that disastrous season when I wrote the following on another site:

    So, a Jackets team that is capable of winning the Cup has those basic ingredients–an elite defenseman, an elite center, solid goaltending and forward depth.  The Jackets do not possess all of these things, clearly and you could argue that the 2015-16 Jackets had none of those things.  So, what is a reasonable timeline to get to the destination?

    I am going to argue that the Jackets are closer than you think, but that the timeframe to get there is longer than you want it to be.  I believe this team can compete for a Cup in three years.

    Three years.  This is year two.  Yes, it seems that the team has taken one step forward and one step back since then, but things are still on schedule.

    Let’s start by looking at elite defensemen.  Zach Werenski and Seth Jones is as good of a pair as any in the NHL.  In 2016, this was still a question mark because we hadn’t seen Werenski.  This has been solved.  Beyond the top pair, there are some issues that will need to be addressed, but this could be resolved through players in the pipeline.  Markus Nutivaara has really shown his worth this season.  Gabriel Carlsson is still in Cleveland.  Vladislav Gavrikov will spend another year in the KHL–shout out to the NHL for deciding not to go to the Olympics!  Before he was hobbled with injuries, Ryan Murray was solid.  Beyond Jones, the right side is the weakness.  Savard has had a horrible year.  David Savard will get another chance next year likely paired with Nutivaara or Carlsson as Jack Johnson will not be back.  Maybe a new partner will reinvigorate him.  If not, one of the lefties will need to take that spot.  Either way, keep in mind that Jones and Werenski will play monster minutes in any future playoff run and the bottom pair will play minimal minutes.  They just need to get a top-four that works consistently.

    Pierre-Luc Dubois has exceeded expectations.  His even-strength CF% within 1 is second only to Artemi Panarin for Jackets’ regulars (Zac Dalpe is the statistical anomaly at #1 due to small sample size).  His size, speed and willingness to drive to the net could make him a player in the mold of Ryan Getzlaf.  He’s the center the franchise has always needed.  There may be growing pains, but the potential is there and the work ethic also seems to be there.

    Forward depth.  Let’s start with the positive.  The Jackets have a wealth of options on the right side.  Josh Anderson, Cam Atkinson and Oliver Bjorkstrand can all be scoring threats and they do it in their own unique ways.  Anderson’s size and speed make him a tough guy to defend.  Atkinson also possesses speed, but has more agility and creativity.  Bjorkstrand is a sniper who is also become a solid defender despite his size.  Meanwhile, Vitaly Abramov has picked up right where he left off last season in the QMJHL.  It is unclear if he’ll make the team next year or spend a year in Cleveland, but Abramov has a high upside.

    On the left side, Panarin has been everything he was billed to be, but he has also impressed me with his play away from the puck more than I expected.  Matt Calvert always gives 100 percent.  Other than those two, this has been part of the team’s struggles this season.  Before yesterday’s injury, Nick Foligno has not looked as quick as he has when the team is at its best.

    But, there is some good news.  For one, I don’t think Sonny Milano has been as bad as some would have you believe and I think maybe Torts needs to relax with the kid just a bit and find line mates who can cover for his deficiencies as he works on them.  This team was at its best this year when Milano was in the lineup.   The Jackets either need to give Milano another chance at second line left wing or they need to find someone else to fill that role so that Foligno can slot in on the third line.

    The Jackets have center depth, it just seems that, outside of Dubois, every center is slotted about 1 spot above where they should be.  Alexander Wennberg‘s 2016-17 performance was inflated by unsustainable power play production.  Once Wennberg stopped producing on power play (January of last year), his overall performance trailed off and frankly, it hasn’t rebounded.  I’ll probably write about this at more length, but despite what you may have read elsewhere, his struggles are real.  The Jackets options are (1) upgrade Wennberg or (2) fix the problem on the second line left wing and hope that improves Wennberg’s production.  Given that Wennberg is never going to produce his own goals and the Jackets’ competition has Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, the first route may be the better route, but it is also the more expensive route.

    The other issue may be Brandon Dubinsky.  No, I’m not all that concerned that he has “career-threatening issues” as some have reported.  I’m more concerned that the reporting has created a rift and lead him to want out.  Stan Fischler suggested this on a recent broadcast. Trying to move Dubinsky would be a real challenge.  Beyond that, Dubi playing on the third (or fourth) line is exactly the sort of depth we need.  The team may need to rebuild this relationship and hopefully certain journalists can avoid fanning the flames further.

    In the pipeline and under the radar is Kevin Stenlund, who has been playing in Europe. Stenlund could challenge Lukas Sedlak next year for a roster spot or play a season in Cleveland with Abramov, which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for both players.

    While it has been a disappointing season in Cleveland as well, there are still some guys there who could provide the Jackets some needed depth.  Paul Bittner, Calvin Thurkauf and Tyler Motte are still young and could be nice additions to the bottom six.

    The drags on the Jackets speed game and possession statistics may soon be moved.  Johnson has reportedly demanded a trade, and I’d like to personally thank him for that.  If reports are true that he could yield a first round pick (or more), that is very good news for the Jackets.  On a sadder note, Boone Jenner is probably in need of a change of scenery.  He doesn’t seem to mesh well with what the Jackets are attempting to do.  He could also still yield a valuable asset in return and could create some cap space for the offseason to address some of the issues raised above and to start dealing with extensions for key players like Panarin and Werenski.

    Which leaves us with goaltending.  While I believe Joonas Korpisalo is an improvement over his predecessor, there remains a $9 million (plus?) question with respect to Bobrovsky after next year.  That’s a conservative estimate of what the two-time Vezina winner might seek on his next contract.  At 30-years-old, he’s also likely going to be seeking a six-eight year deal.  That is a large commitment to a player who has yet to come up big when it matters most.  The Rangers and Canadiens have two great goaltenders making $8.5 million and $10.5 million next year.  They are also both out of the playoffs this year with the Rangers having sent a letter to fans breaking it to them gently that they will be deadline sellers.

    There is no doubt that the Jackets would be even worse without Bob, but the question has to be asked if the team can afford to tie up that much cap space in one player.  If not, this is the offseason they have to start dealing with the transition.  Does that mean buying out Elvis Merzlikins’ contract with Lugano so the 23-year-old can come over to North America next year?  Does that mean making a deal to acquire a goaltender in case negotiations with Bob don’t work out?  Does that mean getting Korpisalo more playing time next year despite the theory that Bob doesn’t do well on long rest?  Or, does it mean doing the unthinkable–trading Bobrovsky and acquiring a replacement at a lower cap hit?  It is a difficult situation and one that could define the franchise going forward.

    While it would hurt to miss the playoffs, I would not be bothered by getting the top 10 pick I fully expected the team to get last year.  That’s another asset that can either be flipped for immediate help or, the better option in my view, kept to sustain organizational depth into the future.

    Regardless, the Jackets are closer now than they were two years ago, and still on schedule.  They have the center they needed.  They have the defensemen they needed.  And, for now, they have an elite goaltender though they need to make a decision about his future.  They also have players who can yield them assets at the deadline (and, in Jenner’s case, even at the draft) if they decide to move them.  The Jackets are not far away, if they can use these assets and some cap space to address their issues on the second line, they can be in a position to be a contender next year and beyond.