Nick and Connor recap and react to the 2019 IIHF World Junior Championship so far, review the latest suspensions and injuries, look to the future of the NHL in 2019 and beyond, discuss 2019 All-Star Game captains, Jake Guentzel’s new extension and Jim Lites’ quotes on Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn.
The NHL’s unofficial deadline for playoff qualification has come and gone, but that doesn’t make this weekend’s games any less significant. Speaking of, let’s take a gander at all the tilts the NHL threw at us this week.
|NHL SCHEDULE: November 19-25|
|TIME (ALL TIMES EASTERN)||VISITOR||HOST||NATIONAL BROADCAST(S)/
|Monday, November 19|
|7 p.m.||Dallas Stars||New York Rangers||1-2|
|7 p.m.||Buffalo||Pittsburgh||5-4 (OT)|
|7:30 p.m.||Washington||Montréal||5-4 (OT)|
|8 p.m.||Los Angeles||St. Louis||2-0|
|8 p.m.||Tampa Bay||Nashville||2-3|
|Tuesday, November 20|
|10:30 p.m.||Edmonton||San Jose||4-3 (OT)|
|Wednesday, November 21|
|7 p.m.||Montréal||New Jersey||2-5|
|7 p.m.||New York Islanders||New York Rangers||0-5|
|7:30 p.m.||Boston||Detroit||2-3 (OT)|
|7:30 p.m.||Florida||Tampa Bay||3-7|
|8 p.m.||St. Louis||Nashville||1-4|
|9 p.m.||Vegas||Arizona||3-2 (OT)|
|10:30 p.m.||Colorado||Los Angeles||7-3|
|Thursday, November 22|
|No Games Scheduled – American Thanksgiving|
|Friday, November 23|
|1 p.m.||New York Rangers||Philadelphia Flyers||0-4|
|4 p.m.||Edmonton||Anaheim||1-2 (OT)|
|4 p.m.||Montréal||Buffalo||2-3 (OT)|
|4 p.m.||New York Islanders||New Jersey Devils||4-3 (OT)|
|7:30 p.m.||Pittsburgh||Boston||1-2 (OT)|
|7:30 p.m.||Chicago||Tampa Bay||2-4|
|8 p.m.||Nashville||St. Louis||2-6|
|9 p.m.||Vancouver||San Jose||0-4|
|saturday, November 24|
|2 p.m.||Washington Capitals||New York Rangers||NHLN|
|7 p.m.||Winnipeg||St. Louis||CITY, SN360|
|7 p.m.||Philadelphia||Toronto||CBC, NHLN, SN1|
|7 p.m.||Boston||Montréal||SN, TVAS|
|7 p.m.||Carolina Hurricanes||New York Islanders|
|10 p.m.||San Jose||Vegas|
|10 p.m.||Vancouver Canucks||Los Angeles Kings||CBC, SN, SN1, SN360|
|Sunday, November 25|
|7 p.m.||New Jersey||Tampa Bay|
|10:30 p.m.||Edmonton||Los Angeles|
I’m a sucker for rivalries, and there was certainly more than a few of those on this week’s slate. The Battle of New York and Governor’s Cup were waged on Wednesday, not to mention an Original Six tilt and two untitled rivalries (Vegas at Arizona and Winnipeg at Calgary). The action continued yesterday when the Rangers visited Philadelphia, followed by today’s schedule of Washington at the Rangers, Boston at Montréal and Columbus at Pittsburgh. One last rivalry is on tomorrow’s schedule when Edmonton heads to Los Angeles (once a rivalry, always a rivalry).
In a similar strain to rivalries, there were also a few playoff rematches from the 2018 postseason scheduled. Winnipeg visited Minnesota yesterday, San Jose is in Vegas today and New Jersey will square off with Tampa Bay tomorrow.
Finally, in the “Homecoming” category, there was perhaps no bigger story than F Mike Hoffman – now a member of the Florida Panthers – making his first trip back to Ottawa since being traded this offseason in the middle of a
kinda super weird controversy involving his fiancée. Hoffman was a Senator for seven seasons.
D Calvin de Haan and LW James van Riemsdyk are both celebrating homecomings tonight after spending six seasons with the Islanders and Maple Leafs, respectively, while Jim Montgomery – head coach of the Dallas Stars – is making his first return to the Rockies since being hired from the University of Denver Pioneers this summer.
But of all these great games, which one is worthy of being this week’s featured tilt?
Is it any surprise?
I mean, really: this is one of the best rivalries the NHL has to offer regardless of where these teams are in the standings, but the intensity is only ratcheted up with both teams separated by one point and fighting to keep up with Toronto for third in the Atlantic Division or one of the two wild cards.
Mix all that together, and the sparks that were all but certain are now guaranteed.
Currently occupying the Eastern Conference’s first wild card, the 12-6-4 Bruins enter this game riding a four-game point streak – a solid effort considering how many injuries they’ve suffered in the first two months of play. C Patrice Bergeron, D Brandon Carlo, D Zdeno Chara, D Charlie McAvoy and D Urho Vaakanainen (that’s right:
four five defensemen [I think we have to count four-time Selke winner Bergeron as a defenseman, given these circumstances]) all find themselves on the injury report, meaning the youngsters from Providence are having to do their best filling in.
Fortunately for Boston, 8-2-2 G Jaroslav Halak has been playing like a machine despite all these injuries to his teammates. In his past two starts, Halak has managed a dominating .917 save percentage and .98 GAA to account for both of the Bruins’ last two wins. Making that all the more impressive, Boston has been allowing 33.5 shots against per game since November 16, the (t)10th-worst in the NHL in that time.
That being said, with Halak getting the start in last night’s overtime victory against the Penguins, all signs are pointing towards 4-4-2 G Tuukka Rask manning the crease this evening at Bell Centre. Rask’s last two outings have shown signs of improvement (he’s managed a .938 save percentage and 1.96 GAA in his last two appearances, both overtime losses), however his .909 save percentage and horrid 2.8 GAA for the season still cast doubts in the minds of more than a few Boston supporters.
Rask owns a 13-19-4 combined regular and postseason record against the Habs. He last beat the Canadiens on January 20 – a sixth-straight victory against his bitter rival – in a game that just so happened to take place in the same barn as tonight’s contest.
Meanwhile, the 11-7-5 Canadiens are also riding a decent run lately, as they’ve pulled off a 2-1-2 record over their last five outings.
Perhaps the brightest facet of Montréal’s game during this five-game run has been its power play. Converting on three of its past 13 opportunities, the Habs’ 23.1 percent success rate is good enough for 13th-best in the NHL since November 15.
Yup, that’s the best I’ve got.
In all honesty, there’s not much about the Canadiens’ recent play that indicates they should still be holding on to the East’s second wild card. Since November 15, Montréal’s offense has averaged only 2.8 goals per game while allowing 3.4 against ([t]11th-worst and ninth-worst in the league, respectively, in that time) – not to mention a defense that’s allowed a whopping 37 shots against per game in that stretch ([t]third-worst in the NHL).
Boston and Montréal have already squared off once this season, and it was far from a pleasurable experience for the Bruins as they were shutout 3-0 on home ice on October 27. RW Brendan Gallagher provided the game-winning goal at the 9:18 mark of the first frame, while F Max Domi and D Jordie Benn provided the two insurance goals. 7-5-4 G Carey Price, Montréal’s starter for tonight’s game, earned the shutout by saving all 33 shots he faced.
So, if neither team is playing particularly well lately, which team is going to snag two points?
Considering Price’s season stats (.895 save percentage and 3.17 GAA) are considerably worse than Rask’s and the fact that the Hab has allowed five goals in each of his last two appearances, I like the Bruins’ chances this evening. This may not be a pretty game, but Rask should be able to lead Boston to victory in Québec.
Before the action gets going Wednesday night against the Toronto Maple Leafs, let’s take a quick second to give an updated forecast on the Carolina Hurricanes roster through 20 games played in the regular season.
Carolina currently sits 5th in the Metropolitan Division with a 9-8-3 record (21 points) on the season and has been all over the board in the league’s most tumultuous division thus far. The Hurricanes have been as high as 1st place in the Metropolitan and as low as 7th in the division on Nov. 6th (then again on Nov. 10th and 11th).
The Canes stormed out of the gate, then quickly dissipated around Halloween dropping out of the lead– but still maintaining a divisional playoff spot– before the rise of the Columbus Blue Jackets bumped them out of a postseason berth altogether on Nov. 1st.
They flirted with a wild card spot for a few days before the sinking ship began to carry too much water.
Head coach, Rod Brind’Amour has implemented a new style in the Hurricanes organization, featuring an emphasis on more shots on goal than ever before regardless of the actual scoring outcome.
Carolina is infected with the youth bug. Rookie mistakes and inconsistencies are to be made and a rookie coach trying to avoid the inevitable errors is no small task. Nothing is truly overnight and through the first quarter of the regular season, the Hurricanes are finding that out.
There’s some good news, however, as the Metropolitan Division is separated by a mere eight points from the Blue Jackets (1st) to the Pittsburgh Penguins (8th), so fixing the weak-spots in one’s game should lead to some separation from the competition with enough wins stringed together.
But with good news, there’s always some bad news too and that is what’s to be expected.
No really, as in the expected outcomes for the Hurricanes latest forecast– it’s not great.
Here’s the latest updated forecast for Carolina through the first 20 games of the regular season, keeping in mind there are many variable that will change what’s to come due to injury, lineup changes, etc. unknown to the frontiers of Microsoft Excel’s formulas.
As always, my degree is in communication– not math.
If a player meets the forecasted stats, they’ve met expectations. If they do better, they exceed expectations. If they do worse, they either missed a lot of action or didn’t live up to expectations.
There’s nothing to forecast puck luck, but we can point out trends and general indications from the scoresheet each night.
Carolina Hurricanes Forecast Through 20 Games (62 Games Remaining)
If anything, it’s promising that Sebastian Aho is on track for 26 goals and 43 assists (69 points) in his third NHL season. Next to Teuvo Teravainen‘s 17-35–52 expected totals, that’s about as far as it goes for excitement.
Only Aho, Jordan Staal and Micheal Ferland are expected to reach the 20-goal plateau for the Hurricanes this season. To make matters worse, Staal should end up with 22 goals and Ferland with 20, meaning Carolina will barely even have three players past the 20-goal mark. Yikes.
Hey at least Victor Rask is back from injury after missing the first 20 games.
On the blue line, three defenders will reach the 30-point plateau in expected points as Dougie Hamilton (12-26–38 expected totals), Justin Faulk (10-27–37 expected totals) and Jaccob Slavin (6-24–30 expected totals) lead the way in scoring from the point.
Considering the rest of the offense isn’t necessarily there, at least the defense is pretty respectable, all things considered.
If the Hurricanes get things going, they can capitalize on overall improvements and likely end up with at least two blue liners pushing 40 points. If they don’t– they might be worse than middle of the road. Again.
In goal, well, it’s the same old, same old.
Scott Darling (2.97 expected goals against average and .899 expected save percentage) has yet to prove he is a capable starting netminder. In fact, his expected totals as things stand right now wouldn’t even be backup goaltender caliber.
Petr Mrazek (2.73 expected GAA, .907 expected SV%) might have something left in the tank for one last chance at redemption and becoming a starter– if his defense can tighten its game up and limit quality shots against.
As for Curtis McElhinney (2.87 expected GAA, .908 expected SV%), well, he’s a decent backup in a limited role, so if Carolina wants to continue with a three-goaltender rotation, McElhinney is certain to improve his overall forecast, though only to respectable backup numbers.
After 20 games into the regular season, the Hurricanes aren’t looking much different from last season. This, of course, after they traded their best scorer in Jeff Skinner to the Buffalo Sabres in the offseason for peanuts (draft picks).
Brind’Amour has improved Carolina’s pace of play, but he can’t do anything about the roster that was dealt to him. That’s where General Manager Don Waddell is going to have to get crafty– and soon, given the perpetual rebuild and playoff drought since 2009.
It’s October whateverth, I know, and the regular season is already underway, but transferring data into a new system and (in some cases) building new rosters entirely can take its time in the midst of catching every game on TV, living life, etc.
So without further ado let’s pretend the 5-3-1 (11 points)– 1st place in the Metropolitan Division– Carolina Hurricanes didn’t actually start the season yet and let’s turn back the clocks to before puck drop on the regular season.
Back then, Andrei Svechnikov had yet to play an NHL game as an 18-year-old rookie. The 2nd overall pick in the 2018 NHL Draft’s forecasted stats couldn’t be calculated until he stepped foot on the ice. Though his 2-2–4 totals in his first nine games have him forecasted for 18 goals and 18 assists (36 points) over his first 82 games, we’ll pretend we don’t actually know what we know now.
Anyway, the fact of the matter remains the same– prior to the start of any regular season, these forecasted stats are merely educated expectations. A player who performs better than their expected outcome exceeded expectations (makes sense). A player who doesn’t live up to the numbers was either injured, a healthy scratch or on a chronic cold streak (or whatever).
Last season’s Carolina Hurricanes finished 6th in the Metropolitan Division with a 36-35-11 record and 83 points on the season. Bill Peters was fired as head coach and former Hurricanes superstar Rod Brind’Amour was hired behind the bench. Don Waddell took over as General Manager in the offseason, going from interim to full-time as owner Tom Dundon embraced a new direction to go along with his new reign.
The annual doldrums in Raleigh, North Carolina might be over sooner rather than later with a stockpile of youth in Sebastian Aho, Warren Foegele, Svechnikov and others, in addition to the quietly shutdown defensive pairings that include Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and newcomers Dougie Hamilton, as well as Calvin de Haan.
Carolina holds the longest playoff drought in the league currently, dating back to their 2009 Eastern Conference Finals appearance against the Pittsburgh Penguins– just three years removed from their 2006 Stanley Cup championship. The Hurricanes haven’t been part of any postseason activity in the 2010s.
Not that this season can necessarily change that, but the end of the drought is soon and the oasis of playoff hockey draws near.
It’s at this point in every forecast where I’d like to remind everyone my degree is in communication– not math– therefore all mistakes are strictly Microsoft Excels fault and for sure not an error of my own. Well, that, and there’s sometimes a little gut-feeling mixed in for players who’ve only played in less than ten games and therefore are projected to score, like, 100 goals or something.
My area of expertise resides in the written, spoken and nonverbal language of communicating– not numbers.
Forecasted stats are to be looked at as an utopian perspective– as though everything were to fall into line and nothing bad could ever happen. Some players will pan out and others will fall flat. These are only suggested (expected) outcomes for a sport that’s highly unpredictable due to its collective nature and sheer puck luck.
Carolina Hurricanes Forecast Through 0 Games (82 Games Remaining)
The good news for Carolina heading into 2018-19 is the realistic expectations are low. There’s only three players that are expected to crack the 50-point plateau, but that doesn’t mean any meteoric rise can’t creep up on any member of the Hurricanes and propel this roster into the postseason for the first time in– by the time April rolls around– a decade.
Brind’Amour is behind the bench now and having no prior NHL experience as a head coach, there’s nothing to point to and say “they’re destined to fail”. The Canes might come out of this with one of the best rookie coaches this season if they make the playofs and given all the expectations of the other rookie coaches around the league.
Washington’s Todd Reirden is behind the defending-Cup champions (so there’s high expectations with room only to fail), David Quinn is coaching a rebuilding New York Rangers bunch (so anything goes), Jim Montgomery is in charge of the borderline Dallas Stars (things could go either way) and Brind’Amour, well, he can only go up what with the roster he was given.
As always, we’ll get into goalies and rookies after the first quarter of the season passes, however, he’s a quick look at the expected top-points scorers for the Hurricanes this season.
Valentin Zykov has shown potential before and if Brind’Amour can finally be the one to light a fire under his playing style, perhaps Zykov just might amass 24-35–59 totals and be like William Karlsson was for the Vegas Golden Knights last season– except this time around, Zykov isn’t a new face in town for a new team.
Aho (27-31–58 expected totals) should easily reach, if not exceed, expectations for Carolina as he enters the world of first line minutes in the post-Jeff Skinner on the Hurricanes era.
We’ll neglect the holes in the Skinner trade where Waddell should’ve gotten more, but at least Aho is a positive in the “next man up” category of “players who should live up to being rushed into the spotlight, since there’s nobody else to turn to and have already been part of the organization prior to a rather one-sided trade”.
“Mr. Game 7” himself (Justin Williams) is bound for one last “breakout” year with 22-33–55 expected totals on a rejuvenated Hurricanes roster.
On defense, Dougie Hamilton (44 expected points) supersedes Justin Faulk (39 expected points) as Carolina’s top blue liner after being acquired in the Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm trade for Hamilton, Ferland and Adam Fox. In addition, Slavin and Pesce continue to fill-out one of the best kept secrets in NHL defense as pieces of the most underrated top-six blue liners with de Haan now part of the fold.
In goal, well, Brind’Amour has a lot of decisions to make on an almost nightly basis. Neither Scott Darling nor Petr Mrazek look to have goals against averages or save percentages in the starting goaltender range.
In fact, both are in the sub-par backup goaltender range– closer to 3.00 than 2.00– so as long as the Hurricane’s defense limits shots against and lessens the workload, then perhaps the season’s collapse won’t be because of bad goaltending.
Time will tell.
The 2018-19 regular season has started, so let’s overreact and hand out the regular season awards already! It’s our 3rd Annual Participation Trophies After One Game presented by Nick and Connor.
36-35-11, 83 points, sixth in the Metropolitan Division
Subtractions: D Jake Chelios (signed by Detroit), D Klas Dahlbeck (signed by CSKA Moscow), D Noah Hanifin (traded to Calgary), C Marcus Kruger (traded to Arizona), F Elias Lindholm (traded to Calgary), F Andrew Miller (signed by HC Fribourg-Gotteron), F Joakim Nordstrom (signed by Boston), HC Bill Peters (resigned, hired by Calgary), C Derek Ryan (signed by Calgary), F Jeff Skinner (traded to Buffalo), G Jeremy Smith (signed by Bridgeport), G Cam Ward (signed by Chicago)
Offseason Analysis: I had the pleasure of composing Carolina’s season preview last summer, and let me tell you: I was super excited. I was convinced this team was finally going to cause some real trouble in the Metropolitan Division on the back of its excellent defense and formidable offense.
Instead we got the same Hurricanes we’ve grown accustomed to over these past few years: a team that, while it was among the better sides to miss out on the postseason, extended its playoff drought to nine-straight seasons.
After a busy offseason for the Canes, it’s safe to say that expectations for the club this season are nowhere near as high. Five forwards that played at least 41 games last season are not returning to Raleigh, not to mention defensive stalwart Hanifin and Ward – a goaltender that, while aging, is still capable of stealing a few games – taking their respective talents to Calgary and Chicago.
If any part of Carolina’s game won’t suffer from these roster moves, it’ll likely be the defense, as the Canes lost a great defenseman and replaced him with one just as good. de Haan played only 33 games last season for the Isles, but his 2016-17 campaign was excellent. He posted 5-20-25 totals in 82 games played with a +15 rating on a team that allowed 238 goals against – the eighth-most in the league that season – due in large part to his 190 shot blocks and 139 hits. Having turned only 27-years-old in May, I have no reason to believe de Haan can’t rediscover that physical form and continue to be an imposing force on the blue line.
Instead, it will be the Hurricanes’ offense that will take a more noticeable step backwards, specifically in the top-six. Assuming that Brind’Amour plays Svechnikov in that position (I think it’s a very safe guess), as well as probable fellow rookies Martin Necas and Valentin Zykov, it will be up to Ferland, Teravainen and Aho (who himself is only entering his third NHL season) to spearhead the scoring lines (You’ll notice I left F Jordan Staal out of that group. That’s because he’s never had any business playing first line center).
It’s not to say this group doesn’t have the potential to be lethal in a few seasons (I’d argue Aho and Svechnikov have a chance to become one on the best lines in the NHL someday), but I just don’t see everything coming together to make this campaign anything more than a learning experience.
To make matters worse, even if the offense can manage to be just average (scoring around 95 goals for the entire season, or over a goal per game), it won’t get very much support from the goaltending department. G Scott Darling posted a horrendous .888 save percentage in 43 appearances last season for a 3.18 GAA, and Mrazek wasn’t all that much better with his .902 save percentage and 3.03 GAA in 39 regular season appearances between Detroit and Philadelphia.
Both netminders will certainly be looking for bounce back years (especially Mrazek, who is in another contract season), but my faith in them has dwindled to the point that I won’t believe they’ve improved until I see it. If my doubts are proven, there’s real potential that rookie G Alex Nedeljkovic, the Canes’ second-round pick in 2014, could see some considerable playing time in the NHL instead of with Carolina’s AHL affiliate in Charlotte.
Offseason Grade: D
Especially after winning the draft lottery to pick second, I was surprised the rumors coming out of Raleigh were that the Canes were intending to gut their roster. Now that we’re only a couple weeks away from training camp, I find myself surprised that Carolina didn’t move more NHL pieces to fully invest in the future (perhaps those moves are being held for the trade deadline?). For not fully committing to either plan (keep the team together or blow it apart), General Manager Don Waddell does not get a passing grade from me.
New York Islanders
35-37-10, 80 points, 7th in the Metropolitan Division
Offseason Analysis: The New York Islanders were in the spotlight as soon as the offseason began. What would John Tavares do? Would he re-sign? Where would he land?
The Islanders knew changes would need to be made to stand a chance at keeping their franchise player. They started by bringing the well-experienced Lou Lamoriello as General Manager to try and fix things. But Lamoriello can’t fix everything and it wasn’t too shocking to see Tavares find a new home with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
So what now? How do you replace your franchise player?
Short answer, you don’t.
Lamoriello started planning and made a trade to acquire Matt Martin from his former employer. He continued to try and toughen the team up by adding Leo Komarov and Valtteri Filppula. Neither of them are flashy and they will grind to make plays and can pop in some goals.
The question mark addition is the addition of Robin Lehner. It’s unclear if Lehner or Thomas Greiss will be the starting goalie. As a Sabres fan, I understand Lehner is not a number one goalie. If New York plans on using him as their starting netminder behind an inexperienced team– they could be in trouble.
A lot of this season rides on the shoulders of Mathew Barzal and Anthony Beauvillier. The two of them had a strong season last year, but with Tavares gone they’ll be in charge of carrying the load this year.
Offseason Grade: C-
It doesn’t look good for the Islanders this season.
They may need to take a few seasons to get some decent draft picks, then push for playoffs again. Lamoriello has a proven track record with rebuilds, as he turned the Maple Leafs around in a few seasons.
That may be the best option for Islanders going forward.
Overall the offseason wasn’t good for the Islanders but Lamoriello brought in pieces to prepare for a rebuild.
Nick, Cap’n and Pete announce their top-10 right wingers of their lifetimes while Connor mails it in and Nick reads his list (somebody has to do work around here). Keeping with tradition, all of Thursday’s big news was announced during or shortly after recording.