Tag: Buffalo

  • October 16 – Day Five – What does Dylan Strome have to do with Buffalo at Edmonton?

    Washington‘s second appearance in the Game of the Day series didn’t need more than 60 minutes for them to earn their first win of the 2016-’17 campaign over the New York Islanders.

    First Star of the Game Daniel Winnik (John Carlson and Jay Beagle) opened the scoring 11:58 after beginning play by deflecting Carlson’s wrister past Third Star Thomas Greiss. 1:51 later, Ryan Strome (Brock Nelson and Johnny Boychuk) scored on a power play wrister to beat Second Star Braden Holtby to level the score at 1-1, which held into the first intermission.

    Winnik (Karl Alzner and Brooks Orpik) struck oil again 7:46 after returning to the ice with a wrister. It was the lone score of the final 40 minutes, giving the Capitals their first victory of the season.

    Holtby earns the win after saving 21-of-22 (95.5%), while Greiss saved 26-of-28 (92.9%) in the loss.

    Washington‘s victory sets the DtFR Game of the Day series at 5-2-0, favoring the home sides by four points over the roadies.

    What a day yesterday, huh? Let your remote celebrate the Sabbath too, as there’s only three games to be played this evening. The action gets green lit at 6 p.m. when Anaheim visits the New York Islanders, followed an hour later by Buffalo at Edmonton (NHLN/SN1). Finally, Carolina at Vancouver gets its start at 10 p.m. (SN1). All times eastern.

    The one that really attracts me is Sabres at Oilers. I know this will be the third time we’ll feature Edmonton, but is anybody really complaining about watching Connor McDavid?

    Unknown-2Unknown-5As hinted at before, McDavid’s early success has only been eclipsed by Toronto‘s Auston Matthews – the man who replaced as the most recent No. 1 pick. Through two games, he’s already scored three times (tied for third-most in the league). Pair that with three more assists, and his six points ties Boston‘s Brad Marchand for best in the league. We certainly need more evidence, but every time the center takes the ice I begin to believe a little bit more in the return of the Oil.

    Detracting from this matchup is the condition, and ultimate absence of Buffalo‘s Jack Eichel. The second pick in last year’s NHL Entry Draft scored 24 goals last year en route to 56 points. Almost ironically, his second year has already started like McDavid’s rookie season. Last year, McDavid missed time early in the season. Now it’s Eichel’s turn, as he suffered a high ankle sprain on Wednesday. All I know is Dylan Strome, the third pick of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, had better be careful next year.  Something’s coming. Something bad.

    In all seriousness, Eichel and McDavid have only squared off once in three possible meetings, which is probably two fewer than the NHL’s marketing and promotions departments would have liked. That being said, it looks like ex-Islander Kyle Okposo will be making his Sabres debut this evening, with the possibility of ex-Panther Dmitry Kulikov also suiting up. So that’s exciting, right?

    Just so you know, in comparison to Eichel v McDavid, the answer is no.

    Some players to watch include Buffalo‘s Robin Lehner (.924 save percentage last season) and Matt Moulson (scored Sabres’ lone goal of the 2016-’17 season) & Edmonton‘s Leon Draisaitl (two goals [tied for sixth-most in the league] for four points [tied for seventh-best in the NHL]), McDavid (six points [tied for the league-lead] on three goals [tied for third-most in the NHL] and three assists [tied for third-most in the league], and +4 [tied for third-best in the NHL]), Kris Russell (three assists [tied for third-most in the league]) and Cam Talbot (two wins [tied for the league-lead]).

    When’s the last time you heard this one: the Oilers are going to win this game. Vegas has Edmonton favored at -175 minimum in their home contest. I’ve gone against the odds a couple times this season (and, I would also like to point out that I’ve been right both times), but this is not one of those games. Edmonton pulls off the victory.

    Hockey Birthday

    • Darius Kasparaitis (1972-) – The defenseman’s career may have found its start on Long Island, but Kasparaitis is most known for his time in Pittsburgh. Last year, he co-founded a Floridian real estate development company.
    • Paul Kariya (1974-) – This left winger was the fourth player selected in the 1993 NHL Entry Draft, and with the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim he played for nine seasons and 606 games. Oh, and he’s also a movie star. Check that footage from D3: The Mighty Ducks. Get him a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.
  • 2016 Mock Draft: The Complete First Round

    By: Nick Lanciani

     

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    Here’s a look at how I think the first round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft will pan out. Of course, I expect just about every single one of these predictions to be wrong. Likewise, experts and draft rankings may say a player is going to go 11th overall, but there’s always a good chance that player could slip up or down on Draft day, so I’ve tried to take account for that as I see fit.

    Let’s be honest, there are a lot of good players, but how often do we see them get drafted in the right order— especially when hindsight is 20/20 (I’m looking at you, 2010 NHL Entry Draft).

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    1) Toronto Maple Leafs–> C Auston Matthews, Zurich (SUI)

    If you read my mock draft from last month, you might realize that it seems not much has changed with my top-14 picks. This one should be self-explanatory. Hope is back in Toronto in the form of Auston Matthews. A 6’1”, 210-pound center, Matthews is a two-way player similar in nature to Anze Kopitar in Los Angeles or Patrice Bergeron in Boston. In 36 games with Zurich this season, he had 24-22-46 totals.

    Matthews was named the Rising Star Award winner and finished 2nd in voting for the MVP of the National League A in Switzerland. Matthews is the franchise center that the Maple Leafs have been waiting for since the days of Mats Sundin. He led the United States to the bronze with 7-4-11 totals at the 2016 IIHF World Junior Championship.

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    2) Winnipeg Jets–> RW Patrik Laine, Tappara (FIN)

    Patrik Laine is the number one choice for number two. You read that right, folks. Laine is one of the next best things for the city of Winnipeg and Jets fans alike. The 6’4”, 206-poung right-winger is a treat to watch and could easily fill the hole left behind by Andrew Ladd’s departure around the trade deadline. We’re talking about the kind of player that could have a bigger year than Blake Wheeler’s already big year. Laine’s size and skill combined with his maturity provides some strength on an increasingly younger and talented Jets roster.

    Laine had 10 goals in 18 playoff games with Tappara en route to being named postseason MVP and winning the championship in Liiga (Finland’s top professional league). He had 17-16-33 totals in 46 games during the regular season and led all Liiga rookies in scoring. As well, Laine tied Auston Matthews in goals at the 2016 IIHF World Junior Championship while helping Finland win gold.

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    3) Columbus Blue Jackets–> RW Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (FIN)

    It’d take a pretty sizeable trade to get Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen to give up the 3rd overall pick— and for good reason. Puljujarvi is the next best skater in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft behind Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine. His talent and hockey sense drive his offensive game as one of the better prospects on the wing.

    Puljujarvi would easily contribute to the youth movement in Columbus as the organization looks to get back to competitive form with a dominant AHL squad in Lake Erie leading the influx of prospects.

    The 6’3”, 203-pound forward had 13-15-28 totals in 50 games played for Karpat in Liiga as a 17-year-old. In addition, Puljujarvi was one point shy of Jaromir Jagr’s record for U-18 players at the World Junior Championship level, having scored 17 points in seven games en route to winning gold with Finland this year at the 2016 IIHF World Juniors.

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    4) Edmonton Oilers–> LW Matthew Tkachuk, London (OHL)

    Originally, I had Jakob Chychrun pegged at 4th overall as the Draft’s best defenseman, but after seeing a second half of the season fade out from Chychrun, even I am skeptical of what he can become. With that, I still have faith in him (see mu 8th overall pick), but while the Oilers could use a young defenseman (that they won’t let slip away— *cough, cough* Jeff Petry), they’ll be forced to take Matthew Tkachuk instead. Not that that’s a bad thing. He’s a talented forward with lots of grit at 6’1”, 195-pounds.

    Tkachuk tied Auston Matthews in scoring for the United States at the 2016 IIHF World Junior Championship with 11 points and hand 30-77-107 totals in 57 games with the London Knights this season. And, oh yeah, he scored the game winning goal in this year’s Memorial Cup Final for the Knights against Rouyn-Noranda. Tkachuk can also revamp a power play unit, given that 42 of his points this season with London came on the power play.

    Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli can’t complain about this pick jumpstarting a quick revitalization in Edmonton with Connor McDavid receiving a skilled, young, winger on his line.

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    5) Vancouver Canucks–> LW Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL)

    I’m not sure if anyone else has noticed it yet, but there’s a dumpster fire in the Canucks management office. All kidding aside, Vancouver has had bad asset management over the last few years. Trading Jared McCann was, well, not a smooth move on Canucks GM Jim Benning’s move. Granted, Erik Gudbranson is a better defenseman than half of Vancouver’s blue line, but that’s not saying much.

    Okay, now that trade analysis is out of the way, here’s the hot take on Pierre-Luc Dubois: he’s good. Dubois is a smart and versatile forward that brings a level of flexibility to the Canucks lineup. He’s more than capable of playing alongside Bo Horvat. Dubois stands tall at 6’2”, 201-pounds, but don’t let his size fool you, he’s got great hands and can play on edge. He led the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles with 57 assists and 99 points in 62 games this season and was a plus-40 rating. Dubois also finished the season in the top-six in the QMJHL in goals and points.

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    6) Calgary Flames–> C Logan Brown, Windsor (OHL)

    Calgary has a youth movement that at times, seems to work very well, and at other times shows exactly the kind of thing you would expect from young players— inexperience. They’ve done a good job of building through the draft, though at times surprising with who they’ve selected. Their primary focus this offseason should be on a solid defenseman, but they’re not going to find the one they’re looking for at 6th overall in the draft (yes, I know Olli Juolevi exists, let me finish).

    The Flames are going to have to be one of those teams that just goes with the best available player on the board, given their position, and since Logan Brown is just that. He’s also bigger than most of their defensemen, so there should be no problem with adding size to their offense without addressing their long-term defensemen needs just yet. At 6’6”, 222-pounds, Brown is a skilled center with speed and the ability to handle the puck better than any other. Think of Joe Thornton as a comparable, since Brown is apt to be a playmaker first, goal scorer second.

    He had 21 goals and 74 points in 59 games with the Windsor Spitfires this season. He also had 29 points on the power play and won 53% of his faceoffs, so there’s that.

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    7) Arizona Coyotes–> D Olli Juolevi, London (OHL)        

    Olli Juolevi is one of the best defensemen in this year’s draft. Of course, hindsight is always better than foresight, but for all you Team Chychrun vs. Team Juolevi people, final rankings and second half of their season performance really separates the two from one another. Both are NHL ready, but one is clearly more ready than the other and has a bit more hockey sense to him.

    The fact of the matter is that Juolevi fits the Coyotes style and brings an edge to their blue line that Arizona desperately needs, given the uncertainty of who they’ll bring back and for how long with plenty of pending free agents in the desert. While the Keith Yandle deal from the spring of 2015 paid in dividends for the Coyotes with the addition of Anthony Duclair, they still lost a defenseman that they put a lot of time and effort into forging. And Brandon Gormley wasn’t much of a success either, so much so that they sent him to Colorado. There’s plenty of cause to add another defenseman to forge and create some competition for a roster spot next season.

    Juolevi comes ready-made at 6’2”, 182-pounds and provides some solidarity should the Coyotes part with Oliver Ekman-Larsson in any fashion in the coming years. Juolevi had nine goals and 42 points for the London Knights this season with a plus-38 rating. He also won gold with Finland at the 2016 World Juniors and transitioned from Finland to the OHL with ease.

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    8) Buffalo Sabres–> D Jakob Chychrun, Sarnia (OHL)

    Sometimes players fizzle out a little before the draft to only prove everyone wrong when the experts say they’re unsure of how that player will turn out. At least, that’s what I hope is the case for Chychrun. Look, he’s one of the best defensemen in the draft, given the fact that he is definitely a first rounder and years later we could be looking back on this draft saying that Chychrun was the best defenseman from this draft.

    The point is this, he’s a 6’2”, 214-pound, two-way defenseman and is sure to fight for a roster spot on the Sabres come this October. While Chychrun ultimately fell in some draft rankings, he is still a cut above many other defensemen in the draft, given his size and familiarity with the North American style of the game. His physicality and awareness brings a solid foundation to Buffalo’s blue line. Chychrun had 11 goals and 49 points in 62 games along with a plus-23 plus/minus rating this season with the Sarnia Sting.

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    9) Montreal Canadiens–> RW Alexander Nylander, Mississauga (OHL)

    Nylander had four goals, five assists and nine points for the Swedes at the 2016 World Junior Championship and blossomed as a skilled forward this year with the Mississauga Steelheads. He’s built for NHL stardom and could do so on one of the biggest stages in the sport in Montreal. Nylander is the 6’0”, 180-pound younger brother of Toronto Maple Leafs forward, William Nylander, and is bound to jumpstart a Canadiens offense that was streaky at best (aside from being injured) this season. He had 28 goals and 75 points in 57 games in his first OHL season with Mississauga.

    He’s a dynamic skater that is more than effective on the power play, notching nine power play goals for the Steelheads. Nylander can separate himself from any other skater on the ice with ease. If the Sabres overlook Jakob Chychrun, there’s a good chance he could go 8th overall, but since they probably won’t look past Chychrun, Nylander is best fit to go to another rival of the Maple Leafs— the Habs. I’ll say it again, he’s going to be picked by a rival of Toronto, but the question is which one?

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    10) Colorado Avalanche–> D Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor (OHL) 

    In light of all the rumors/actual evidence that the Avalanche are/are not shopping Tyson Barrie, this one seems self-explanatory. Colorado moves a defenseman to then take a defenseman (that they’ll have to start the process all over again with) at the draft. This seems to be a very Colorado move, but stay with me for a moment on this one. Mikhail Sergachev packs a punch— we’re talking Rob Blake style impact, but with an offensively minded side of the game.

    Sergachev is a big 6’2”, 208-pound defenseman and was named the best defenseman in the OHL in his first season in North America this season. His two-way presence along the blue line brings enough of an offensive element to his game to satisfy anyone that likes watching someone hit someone along the boards with their size, then start a quick transition the other way (and execute it well). With Sergachev, we’re talking almost like an Erik Karlsson, but with more strength when it comes to playing defense.

    He plays with confidence and speed and had 17 goals and 57 points in 67 games with the Windsor Spitfires in his rookie season. Add to that his 31 points on the power play and maybe the Avalanche are ready to take on a young, NHL-ready defenseman that might be able to help them figure out what the heck they are doing. Sergachev is the total package that the Av’s have failed to produce on their own, but desperately want, and brings balance to their youth movement all around.

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    11) New Jersey Devils–> C Tyson Jost, Penticton (BCHL)

    If you’re the Devils and you’re committed to Cory Schneider as one of the league’s best-underrated goaltenders, then you should be working harder than ever to prevent the current turnaround from lasting forever. You owe it to Schneider and his goalie equipment. Okay, rant aside, New Jersey could use younger talent and it might not be a bad idea if it does take them a few years to groom it properly. After all, letting another Zach Parise get away wouldn’t be good.

    The fact of the matter is this— New Jersey isn’t going anywhere unless they figure out that they need to build around Adam Larsson, Adam Henrique, Schneider and the like. Yet the Devils seem pretty insistent on going where they want with what they have, which means it wouldn’t be a bad idea to add to their lack of strength down the middle. Ray Shero is a smart general manager knows how to add talent.

    Tyson Jost is perhaps one of the best-underrated players available in the draft as a 6’0”, 194-pound center heading to the University of North Dakota next season. Jost could become a cornerstone forward for New Jersey as long as they’re willing to add to their foundation. He had 42 goals and 104 points in 48 games for Penticton this season, with 14 goals on the power play and seven game-winners.

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    12) Ottawa Senators–> D Jake Bean, Calgary (WHL)

    The likes of another Erik Karlsson in Ottawa wouldn’t be a bad thing considering their addition of the annual butt-end of a pylon joke, Dion Phaneuf this season. Jake Bean is a solid defenseman with a considerable offensive element of his game that with some work, could flourish in the NHL. Plus his name fits the Senators obsession with defenseman with short, four-letter last names, like Cody Ceci.

    Bean is a 6’0”, 173-pound offensive defenseman with excellent wheels and smart puck possession. He can make excellent passes and carry his own weight. With proper training, Bean could strengthen up enough to become a force to be reckoning with on the blue line. His stick, body and talent is sure to be a great compliment alongside any of Ottawa’s defenders in the years to come. One more thing to note, Bean led the Western Hockey League defensemen with 24 goals in 68 games in his second full season in the league with the Calgary Hitmen.

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    13) Carolina Hurricanes–> C Clayton Keller, USA U-18 (USHL)

    First the Hurricanes made waves by landing Teuvo Teravainen and Bryan Bickell in a trade with the Chicago Blackhawks this offseason, next they’re going to make waves by selecting Clayton Keller with the 13th overall pick. Here’s why: despite what everyone tells you about size in hockey, you don’t always need size— you just need skill (and a lot of hard work). Keller is a skillful 5’9”, 168-pound center reminiscent of the likes of Martin St. Louis or Jonathan Drouin. Overlooked, doubted, under recognized, Keller is a smart, tactical, forward.

    He led the USA’s U-18 program with 70 assists and 107 points in 62 games this season. As well, Keller recorded four goals and 10 points in seven games at the 2016 IIHF World U-18 Championship en route to a bronze medal. The Hurricanes need to retool down the middle in the post-Eric Staal era and Keller is likely to be their man. He’s committed to Boston University in 2016-2017 and was also selected in the second round (40th overall) of the 2014 OHL Draft by the Windsor Spitfires, proving that he’s got plenty of options for some development before making the NHL jump.

    Carolina shouldn’t rush things with him, if they’re committed to the long term approach of success (though the same can’t necessarily be stated for the relocation rumors surrounding the team).

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    14) Boston Bruins–> D Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (Hockey-East)

    Boston needs a defenseman, so Boston drafts a defenseman they can keep their eyes on throughout his development, as McAvoy is across town at Boston University. Bruins general manager, Don Sweeney, has a lot of tough decisions to make this offseason just as he did last offseason and must look to add depth on the blue line both in the immediate future and down the pipeline.

    McAvoy brings an excellent 6’0”, 208-pound frame with excellent defensive awareness. While he’s not NHL ready, a year or two of development looks to pay off in dividends with his 39 blocked shots in 37 games played this season as a freshman at BU. Likewise, McAvoy had three goals and 25 points and was a plus-10 rating in his first year as a Terrier. He had a plus-5 rating with the bronze medal-winning United States at the 2016 IIHF World Junior Championship.

    Under the guidance of some veterans and Boston’s coaching staff, McAvoy could turn into a household name at TD Garden.

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    15) Minnesota Wild–> LW Max Jones, London (OHL)

    Minnesota has some tough decisions to make this offseason with regards to their plethora of pending free agents, potentially buying out or trading Thomas Vanek and the inquiries they face in the ongoing phone calls about Darcy Kuemper. With four picks in the 2016 Draft, the Wild could be looking to stockpile a few more (and they’ve got assets to move). With Bruce Boudreau at the reigns the Wild should become a contender with the right pieces. The only trouble is finding those pieces between now and then.

    An addition that’s needed for Minnesota to surpass their previous playoff failures is found in 6’2”, 203-pound forward, Max Jones. He would bring size and physicality to their lineup along with a skilled stick that scored 28 goals and 52 points in 63 games as a London Knight this season. Barring his brutality (he had amassed 106 penalty minutes and a 12-game suspension in the OHL playoffs), Jones could be a wild enough power forward for the Wild.

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    16) Detroit Red Wings–> D Dante Fabbro, Penticton (BCHL)

    The phrase “defense wins championships” has long been synonymous with the Detroit Red Wings. While their offense has improved in age and dynamics, as Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist and Riley Sheahan surely cannot do everything; the Red Wings have been a little lackluster on the point in prospects. Actually, it hasn’t been a little— it’s been virtually non-existent with every young defenseman in their system having either faded out or been traded.

    The point is, Detroit needs a younger defense sooner rather than later to avoid a situation similar to the *ahem* Boston Bruins or New York Rangers.

    Fabbro brings in a solid 6’0”, 189-pound stature that had 14-53-67 totals in 45 games for Penticton this season. The Boston University bound defenseman will need some time to develop, but the Red Wings can take a year or two to work their way with him and align everyone on the same “defense wins championships” page. Of note, Fabbro was named the top defenseman in the British Columbia Hockey League for his efforts this season.

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    17) Nashville Predators–> D Logan Stanley, Windsor (OHL)

    Replacing Seth Jones isn’t easy— was something I expected to say in twenty years if you asked me three years ago at the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, but now everything’s changed since Jones didn’t pan out the way Nashville envisioned how they’d utilize him. Still feeling the effects of Ryan Suter jumping ship (and Shea Weber almost jettisoning the Predators), Nashville goes with Logan Stanley to regain some control of developing their defensemen the way they want to.

    At 6’7”, 225-pounds, Stanley packs a punch standing tall and bone crunching-ly strong. Additionally, he skates well and can pair up with just about any defenseman willing to carry the more offensive sides of the game as Stanley fits more of a stay-at-home, shutdown blue liner role. He had 5-12-17 totals and 103 penalty minutes in 64 games with the Spitfires this season and handles speedy forwards with ease, often breaking down oncoming rushes.

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    18) Philadelphia Flyers–> C Michael McLeod, Mississauga (OHL)

    The Flyers are in prime position for aligning themselves as playoff contenders for the next few seasons (at least) if they continue to manage their assets and commit themselves to a solid goaltender (looking at you Michal Neuvirth). Philadelphia has a lot of centers, so what’s one more? Likewise, GM Ron Hextall has mentioned that he wants to add size. He should do so, with versatility.

    Michael McLeod led Mississauga in shorthanded goals (four) and 21-40-61 totals this season. Combined with his work ethic, McLeod’s 6’2”, 188-pound frame and speed shows durability as a playmaking forward that could develop well on the wing in Philly. While Shayne Gostisbehere holds down the blue line for the Flyers, drafting a smart, gifted offense will help balance the franchise’s talent pool in the coming years.

    Overall the Flyers are a few steps away from taking the New York Islanders model into a deeper playoff routine…

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    19) New York Islanders–> C Luke Kunin, Wisconsin (BIG 10)

    …and speaking of the Islanders…

    First, what were the they thinking with that Casey Cizikas extension? Second, they’re going to need someone to step up big time to replace Kyle Okposo, especially with the threat of John Tavares opting to hit the free agent market in 2017— though do you think New York won’t learn anything from the Tampa Bay Lightning’s current situation with Steven Stamkos to put more than enough emphasis on valuing their best franchise player? Enough ranting about the organization overall, more about Luke Kunin.

    Kunin is a 5’11”, 193-pound solid center that was named to the Big Ten Conference All-Freshmen team after leading the Wisconsin Badgers with 19 goals (five of them on the power play) and 127 shots on goal in 34 games this season. Again, “solid” is the keyword here. Dependable on special teams and durable in the lineup are other expected qualities from Kunin, especially with some time to develop, he could become one of the better two-way players in the league, emulating the likes of Patrice Bergeron, Jonathan Toews or Anze Kopitar. But again, the other keyword here is development (which he’ll certainly get in his coming years at Wisconsin).

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    20) Arizona Coyotes (from New York Rangers)–> LW Riley Tufte, Blaine (HS-MN)

    Having already addressed Arizona’s needs, this one is simply one of those “take one of the highly ranked guys, oh and talk about his size being important to the lineup” selections.

    Look, with a roster that already has Max Domi and other skilled, young players, looking to create a dynamic mix of skill and toughness in the desert, Riley Tufte is a clear choice for the Coyotes at 20th overall if he’s still available by then. He’s a 6’5”, 211-pound left wing that wins battles along the boards. Tufte also has a heavy shot and had 47 goals and 78 points (with six power play goals) in 25 games en route to winning the 2016 Minnesota Mr. Hockey Award. He also had 10 goals in 27 games with Fargo in the USHL and is committed to the University of Minnesota Duluth next season to add some more strength and development to his game.

    In time, he’ll leave opponents howling for mercy in Arizona (I just wanted to make a pun, please appreciate it).

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    21) Carolina Hurricanes (from Los Angeles Kings)–> D Dennis Cholowski, Chilliwack (BCHL)

    Some things were said about the Hurricanes and some things remain. Meanwhile, they’ve got some good defensemen coming up the ranks and lots of potential trade bait on the blue line, both in the now and in the future. Sometimes a change of scenery is best for both teams in regards to the lack of development for players like Ryan Murphy. Likewise, the uncertainty of Justin Faulk’s future in Carolina looms overhead.

    It only makes sense to make a selection that you intend to groom properly and insert into the lineup down the road. Dennis Cholowski is a 6’0”, 170-pound sturdy defenseman with excellent hockey sense and decent skating ability. He had 12 goals and 40 points in 50 games with Chilliwack this season and knows how to open up enough space for a breakout. With some strength and development at St. Cloud State University, Cholowski could become a solid, underrated, blue liner for Carolina.

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    22) Winnipeg Jets (from Chicago Blackhawks)–> LW Kieffer Bellows, USA U-18 (USHL)

    Barring a Patrik Laine breakdown, the Winnipeg Jets make out with two solid first round picks in my mock draft.

    Kieffer Bellows is just what the Jets need for a pure goal scorer that’ll help the likes of Mark Scheifele and whoever else Winnipeg has down the middle. Bellows scored 50 goals this season with the USA U-18 national development team and is sure to make a sound next season at Boston University. His 12 power play goals and nine game-winning goals and 81 points came in 62 games this season. At 6’0”, 196-pounds he’ll be more than ready to be a durable winger coming down the pipeline in the next few seasons. Oh and he likes to shoot from anywhere, as evidenced by his 50 goals with the NTDP U-18 team.

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    23) Florida Panthers–> RW Alexander DeBrincat, Erie (OHL)

    The Florida Panthers are trending upwards and they appear to be only getting better, what with the Keith Yandle trade and signing as the latest piece to the puzzle and the ageless wonder— excuse me, legend— Jaromir Jagr in great shape.

    Alexander DeBrincat brings a lot of skill to the Panthers roster, despite his 5’7”, 163-pound frame (but again, size doesn’t matter when hard work and talent is enough to prove people wrong). DeBrincat may have had his run-ins with trouble on the international Junior stage, but he’s not one to pass up on and cast off as uncoachable or whatever. He anticipates what comes to him with ease and has an impressive release on an accurate shot that played alongside Connor McDavid and Dylan Strome the last two seasons.

    Along the way, DeBrincat amassed 102 goals in 128 games with the Erie Otters as perhaps one of the most underrated forwards alongside the likes of McDavid and Strome.

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    24) Anaheim Ducks–> C Rasmus Asplund, Farjestad (SWE)

    After surprising everyone with the way they flapped around the bottom of the standings at the start of this season, the Anaheim Ducks worked their way as far as a disappointing Game 7 loss in Round 1 of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs to the Nashville Predators. Then they fired Bruce Boudreau and hired Randy Carlyle as head coach. Apparently they think that every ten years they can win a Cup or something with the same head coach and just the same amount of confusion in the offseason. Where they’re headed nobody knows.

    But drafting Rasmus Asplund certainly won’t be a mistake for the Ducks. Asplund’s a 5’10”, 176-pound center that will need some time to develop in order to strengthen up and fully transition to the North American style of the game, but he’s got superb leadership and great competitiveness in his game. The potential for this 4-8-12 total point scorer in 46 games with Farjestad this season to improve as he comes more into his development as a two-way forward is yet to be calculated as to just how far off the charts he could reach. Asplund is one of those well-liked guys you can work with and tailor to your needs.

    Think of a lesser known, better kept secret, David Pastrnak type of player on the ice with the potential of being the next Teemu Selanne style leader off the ice. Anaheim fans will surely like that.

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    25) Dallas Stars–> RW Vitaly Abramov, Gatineau (QMJHL)

    The Dallas Stars aren’t looking to do much this offseason besides find better goaltending, if possible, and work on ensuring that Tyler Seguin is fully healed and ready to carry the team on his back alongside Jamie Benn again (slightly warm hot take).

    Dare I say it, but drafting Vitaly Abramov could pay off in— stars— for the Stars. The 5’9”, 175-pound winger led the Gatineau Olympiques with 38 goals (with 11 of them on the power play) and 93 points this season en route to being named the QMJHL Rookie of the Year. Abramov is highly competitive and has a quick shot. There’s no need to worry about his transition to the North American game, because he’s already further developed than most for his skill level.

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    26) Washington Capitals–> C German Rubtsov, Team Russia U18 (RUS)

    Capping off a President’s Trophy winning season (and their best season in franchise history) with an early second round of the playoffs exit to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins was not something on the Washington Capitals’ list this season. But their plethora of talent isn’t sure to diminish anytime soon.

    German Rubtsov is the kind of two-way player that could really excel under Barry Trotz’s guidance and/or alongside Alex Ovechkin, Nick Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov— actually pretty much anyone on the Capitals roster. As a 6’2”, 178-pound forward with 26 points in 28 games for Team Russia’s U18 team, Rubtsov displayed flashes of brilliance in his hockey sense and defensive awareness, bringing forth a tremendous two-way element to his game. He’s sure to win some battles in high traffic situations for Washington in the years to come with a little fine seasoning in their system, wherever that may be.

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    27) Tampa Bay Lightning–> D Lucas Johansen, Kelowna (WHL)

    Tampa Bay has a lot on its plate this offseason, between the swirling rumors around trading Ben Bishop, their defeat in the Eastern Conference Finals, oh and the fact that Steven Stamkos could very well be heading to unrestricted free agency and the Lightning will be left without a #1 franchise player if he decides to leave. But hey, sure, let’s look ahead for the organization, why not? What else could possibly go wrong— insert plea for Victor Hedman to tough it out and anyone else worried about what skilled Lightning player will be taken by Las Vegas at next year’s expansion draft.

    Enough kidding around, Tampa could use a defenseman that is young and may need a year or two before coming into the league because, well, what else might they need. They’ve got plenty of young forwards, young defensemen (I’m looking at you Slater Koekkoek, okay actually I just wanted to type that name) and a young goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy; so really, the choice is yours Steve Yzerman and crew. Take Lucas Johansen and you’ve got your hands on a 6’1”, 176-pound younger brother of the Nashville Predators’ Ryan Johansen.

    This Johansen can skate well and play at both ends of the rink and is in an organization that has produced Duncan Keith, Shea Weber and Tyson Barrie. That’s some pretty good company to be in and enough reason for Tampa to look to the future of a shut down pair in Lucas Johansen and Hedman.

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    28) St. Louis Blues–> C Pascal Laberge, Victoriaville (QMJHL)

    David Backes is heading to free agency, Paul Stastny isn’t getting any younger, but at least Vladimir Sobotka may be making his return to the St. Louis Blues lineup next season. As an aside, I’m a huge fan of Sobotka, just throwing it out there. Tight against the salary cap, the Blues may be singing the blues in Ken Hitchcock’s final season as head coach if they can’t find a way to restock their prospect pool and finagle a way to keep high-end talent on their roster. It’s the tragedy of the salary cap era to see a team that’s so good, make it only so far, then have to dismantle nearly everything when they get behind the eight ball a bit against the cap.

    With that, Pascal Laberge is a promising center that led the Victoriaville Tigres with 68 points in 56 games this season. He was named MVP of the 2016 CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game in January, by the way, and is a 6’1”, 172-pound, right-shot that goes to the dirty areas to pick up points and notch goals. His compete level and ability to play the puck along the wall, while winning battles all over the ice, prove he can develop into an all-in-one impact player for St. Louis, like Backes, but perhaps a tad better. It’s time to start thinking long term and begin building down the middle for the Blues.

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    29) Boston Bruins (from San Jose Sharks)–> C Tage Thompson, Connecticut (Hockey-East)

    Remember everything I said before about the Bruins? Yeah, well, they need a lot of help. Regardless of whatever they’re able to attract this offseason, they’re still quite a ways off from righting the ship unless they can pull off a miracle it seems. But hey, the good news is that they have two first round picks at their dispersal and some talent forming in their pipelines/already with the NHL club in the likes of Frank Vatrano, Colin Miller (who’s a pending RFA) and others.

    Tage Thompson works perfectly for them to keep an eye on through his development at UConn. He led the NCAA with 13 power play goals this season and had 14 goals and 32 points in 36 games with the Huskies. The 6’5”, 195-pound forward finished his freshman year with lots of promise and has enough time to continue to develop into a solid, accurate shooting, quick with the hands center that would bring an immense boost to Boston’s power play if all goes according to plan. Thompson will also have to add some strength to match his height and the level of his game, but he’s got some time while Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci hold down the fort on the Bruins top lines.

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    30) Anaheim Ducks (from PIT via TOR)–> RW Julien Gauthier, Val-d’Or (QMJHL)

    I talked about the Ducks before, so I’ll cut to the chase, especially since you’ve been such a good reader making it all the way to the end of this mock draft. Thanks for that.

    Julien Gauthier is a monstrous 6’3”, 225-pound power forward. Obviously I meant that in a good way. While some see him as a second or third rounder, Anaheim sees his potential and grabs him before anyone else can even begin to dream about having him in their lineup in the years to come. His 41-11-57 totals in 54 games for Val-d’Or are impressive enough to be a tactical selection by the Ducks, in light of being the only 2016 NHL Draft-eligible player to play for Canada at the 2016 IIHF World Junior Championship. Gauthier had two assists in five games played at the 2016 IIHF WJC.

    And that does it. That’s all folks. Well, at least for the first round, but I don’t think you want to see me project all seven rounds do you? Thanks for reading. May your favorite team have the best of luck at Friday and Saturday’s NHL Entry Draft. We’ll have a live blog of the first round going and keep you updated on all the trades made, as usual.

  • April 8 – Day 176 – Out of Necessity, Vol. 4

    Boston threw a wrench in Detroit‘s playoff plans, as they beat them 5-2 in yesterday’s Game of the Day.

    They struck their first only 1:25 into the contest with a David Pastrnak backhander, assisted by John-Michael Liles (his 15th helper of the season) and Colin Miller.  1:19 later, Boston doubled their lead when Third Star of the Game Brad Marchand connected on a snap shot, assisted by First Star Torey Krug (his 39th helper of the season) and Patrice Bergeron, which ended up being the final tally of the period.

    The game winner found the back of the net at the 5:02 mark of the second period on the power play, courtesy of Krug after assists from Loui Eriksson and Second Star David Krejci (his 45th helper of the season).  Detroit finally got on the board at the 6:59 mark on a Alexey Marchenko wrister, assisted by Henrik Zetterberg (his 36th helper of the season) and Gustav Nyquist.  That was the last score of the period, so the score read 3-1 after 40 minutes.

    Only 20 seconds after returning to the ice, the Bruins struck another insurance goal, this one a Lee Stempniak snap shot, assisted by Krug (his 40th helper of the season) and Marchand.  25 seconds after that, Eriksson set the score at 5-1 with a tip-in, assisted by Krejci (his 46th helper of the season) and Ryan Spooner.  Detroit takes credit for the final goal of the game, struck with 1:23 remaining by Andreas Athanasiou, assisted by Marchenko and Kyle Quincey.

    Tuukka Rask earns the win after saving 13 of 15 shots faced (86.7%), while Jimmy Howard takes the loss, saving 21 of 26 (80.8%).  He was replaced after Eriksson’s third period goal by Petr Mrazek, who saved all eight shots faced.

    The Bruins‘ win is the second straight for home sides in the DtFR Game of the Day series, setting the season series at 82-45-19, favoring the home teams by 42 points over the roadies.

    We’ve only got one game on the schedule this evening, so we’re headed off to Buffalo for a 7 p.m. eastern puck drop on NHLN and BELL TV!

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    This will be Columbus‘ third appearance in the DtFR Game of the Day series, where they own a 0-2-0 record.  Last time they were featured was October 22, a 3-2 loss in Minnesota.  Buffalo has been featured three times before tonight’s game, and own a 1-2-0 record in such situations.  Their lone win in the series was in their last appearance, a 3-2 victory in Ottawa on January 26.

    The 34-35-11 Buffalo Sabres rank seventh in the Atlantic Division and 14th in the Eastern Conference.  Although they play the 15th worst defense, they’ve been held back by the fifth worst offense.

    Led by Josh Gorges’ 162 blocks, the Sabres have allowed 2445 shots to reach 22-16-4 Chad Johnson and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 92% for 215 goals against, the 15th most in the NHL.  The defense has been spearheaded by the defensive special team, which has killed 82.79% of their penalties for only 37 goals against, the eighth best rate in the league.

    The major pitfall has been on the offensive end.  Even with the injured Evander Kane’s 271 shots, Buffalo has only fired the puck 2357 times, with 8.2% finding the back of the net for 196 goals (led by Jack Eichel’s 24 tallies), the fifth fewest in the league.  Again, the Sabres have actually been fairly successful on the special teams, scoring on 18.95% of their power play attempts, which is good for 47 power play goals, the 11th best rate in the league.

    The Sabres enter tonight’s game on a three game winning streak, with their most recent being Tuesday’s 3-1 victory at New Jersey.

    The 32-40-8 Columbus Blue Jackets are the worst team in the Metropolitan Division and second worst in the Eastern Conference.  They’ve gotten there playing the 12th worst offense, paired with the second worst defense.

    Even with Brandon Saad’s 229 shots, the Jackets have fired the puck 2332 times, with 8.7% finding the back of the net for 210 goals (led by Boone Jenner’s 30 tallies), the 12th fewest in the NHL.  Part of the problem has been that Columbus has not capitalized on opportunities, as their 16.8% power play success rate, good for 41 extra man goals, is the eighth worst in the league.

    The defense has been a bigger issue.  Even with Ryan Murray’s 170 blocks, Columbus has allowed 2471 shots to reach 14-19-1 Sergei Bobrovsky and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 90.9%, allowing 247 goals in the process, the second most in the league.  In comparison, the penalty kill has actually been decent, neutralizing 81.11% of their infractions, allowing 51 power play goals in the process, the 14th worst rate in the league.

    The last game Columbus played was Wednesday’s 5-1 victory in Toronto.

    Buffalo has already won the season series 2-0-0, with the most recent meeting ending 4-0 on February 19 in Columbus.

    Some players to keep an eye on in tonight’s game include Buffalo‘s Ryan O’Reilly (59 points, including 38 assists, with 24 occurring at even-strength [all lead the team]) and Columbus‘ Cam Atkinson (52 points, including two shorthanded goals [both lead the team]), Brandon Dubinsky (30 assists, with 26 occurring at even-strength and 224 hits [all lead the team]) and Saad (23 even-strength goals and seven game winners on 229 shots [all lead the team]).

    Buffalo should have this game in the bag.  Both their offense and defense are superior to the Jackets‘, and they enter their home game riding a winning streak.  I’ve got Sabres winning easy.

  • January 26 – Day 108 – Lehner’s Sabres to Sens Town!

    With two goals in the second period, the Detroit Red Wings were able to beat the New York Islanders in Brooklyn 4-2 in yesterday’s Game of the Day.

    After Second Star of the Game Brock Nelson hooked Dylan Larkin, Brad Richards fired a power play goal after an assist from Pavel Datsyuk (his 18th helper of the season).  The Wings held the one-goal lead for only 5:36 though, as Nelson scored his 19th tally of the season off an assist from John Tavares to level the score, which held into the intermission.

    Third Star Justin Abdelkader was responsible for Detroit‘s second goal of the night at the 13:29 mark, after assists from Henrik Zetterberg (his 24th helper of the season) and Larkin.  1:11 later, the Wings had their game-winner courtesy of First Star Danny DeKeyser.  Detroit‘s 3-1 lead held into the second intermission.

    The Islanders tried to stage a comeback with a score at the 15:12 mark of the third, compliments of Mikhail Grabovski (his seventh tally of the season), assisted by Matt Martin and Brian Strait, but they could not manage to level the score.  The Wings‘ final goal of the evening was an empty netter from Luke Glendening, assisted by Darren Helm (his ninth helper of the season) and Kyle Quincey.

    Petr Mrazek’s record improves to 18-9-4 after saving 27 of 29 (93.1%), while Jaroslav Halak’s falls to 12-9-4, saving 22 of 25 (88%).

    The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 48-21-9, favoring the home squad by 38 points over the roadies.  Detroit‘s win was the first for the road squad in six games for our series.

    It’s a busy Tuesday in the greatest hockey league in the world!  The action starts at 7 p.m. eastern with two games (Anaheim at Boston [TVAS] and New Jersey at Pittsburgh), followed half an hour later by four more (Chicago at Carolina [NBCSN/SN1], Columbus at Montréal [RDS], Buffalo at Ottawa [BELL TV/RDS2] and Toronto at Florida).  Arizona at Winnipeg drops the puck at 8 p.m. eastern, followed by the co-nightcaps (Nashville at Vancouver and Colorado at San Jose [NBCSN/SN1]) at 10 p.m. eastern.

    A third of tonight’s games are divisional rivalries (New Jersey at Pittsburgh, Buffalo at Ottawa and Toronto at Florida), and only one, Colorado at San Jose, is between current playoff contenders.  Tonight also marks the first return of Bobby Farnham to Pittsburgh, David Legwand and Robin Lehner to Ottawa and Brad Boyes to Florida.

    Given how long he spent in the Canadian capital and that he should be starting this evening, lets give the nod to Lehner and the Sabres.

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    Tonight marks Buffalo‘s third appearance in the Game of the Day series, a series in which they have yet to earn a point.  Their most recent game under our observation was a 2-1 loss in Colorado on Wednesday.  The Senators have been featured seven times before tonight, and own a 2-4-1 record in such games.  Their most recent was a 4-1 loss in Anaheim on January 13.

    Legwand and Lehner both joined the Sabres from the Senators this offseason in return for the New York Islanders‘ first-round pick (which Ottawa ultimately used to draft Colin White, who at the time, had yet to take the ice for Boston College).  Together, they’ve played a total of 49 games for the Sabres, but the organization is optimistic for Lehner’s future.

    So far this season, Lehner has started all four games he’s played, but he has yet to even get the Sabres to overtime (0-3-0 record), giving up eight goals in the process  (.934 save percentage).  During his five-season, 86-game career in Ottawa, he earned a 30-36-13 record with a .914 save percentage.  He is expected to start tonight’s game for Buffalo against his old team.

    The 19-26-4 Buffalo Sabres are currently last in the Atlantic Division, and second-to-last in the Eastern Conference and NHL, leading only Columbus, and only by a point at that.  Although their position in the standings would not indicate it, their defense is actually on par with the league average (as measured by goals against), but their offense is absolutely horrendous and is the main reason the squad is considering tanking instead of making a playoff push.  You can read a more in-depth analysis of their game on Wednesday’s post.

    The Sabres are currently riding a three-game losing skid, with their most recent being a 6-3 loss in Madison Square Garden last night.  A win tonight does have the chance to move Buffalo past Toronto in the standings, but at this point, Sabres fans might prefer to avoid winning as much as possible in hopes of a Jamie McGinn-Jack Eichel-Auston Matthews line.

    The 23-20-6 Ottawa Senators are currently sitting in sixth-place in the Atlantic Division and 11th in the Eastern Conference, three points out of a playoff spot.  To get them to that spot, they play one of the better offenses in the league, but the reason the Sens aren’t in the playoffs right now is due to their atrocious defense.

    Even with Erik Karlsson’s team-leading 136 shots, the Sens have only fired 1382 shots this season, of which a solid 9.6% have found the back of the net for 137 goals (led by Mike Hoffman’s 22 tallies), sixth-most in the league.  Interestingly, those numbers have not relied on the special teams, as Ottawa has only connected on 18.24% (technically below league average) for 27 power play goals, led by Hoffman’s six.  They’ve also only given up two short-handed goals.

    The defense is entirely to blame for Ottawa being out of the playoffs right now.  Even with Karlsson’s team-leading 99 blocks, Ottawa has allowed a whopping 1623 shots to reach 20-14-4 Craig Anderson and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91.4% for 152 goals against, second-most in the league.  Part of that defense is the penalty kill, which has only killed 75.63% of opposing power plays for 39 extra-man goals against.  The only saving grace of the penalty kill has been the 10 (yes, 10) shorties to their credit, led by Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s five.

    Just like Buffalo, Ottawa‘s most recent game was against the Rangers, but the Sens won their game at home on Sunday with a three-game shutout.  A win this evening has the potential to move Ottawa into the “First Team Out” position in the Eastern Conference, but they will need Montréal and Pittsburgh to both lose for that to happen.

    Some players to watch in tonight’s game include Buffalo‘s Evander Kane (147 shots and 107 hits [both lead the team]), Ryan O’Reilly (40 points, of which 17 are goals, with 10 being at even-strength and seven being on the power play [all lead the team]) and Sam Reinhart (three game-winning goals [leads the team]) & Ottawa‘s Anderson (20 wins [eighth-most in the league] and three shutouts [tied for ninth-most in the league]), Hoffman (22 goals [tied for eighth-most in the league]) and Karlsson (41 assists [second-most in the league] and 51 points [fourth-most in the league]).

    I’m picking Ottawa to win this one, mostly because they won’t be as worried about their defense doing their best impression of Swiss cheese since Buffalo‘s offense usually can’t hit the broad side of a barn.  Lehner’s record should fall to 0-4-0.

  • January 20 – Day 102 – We ain’t talking about no auto shop

    Thanks to a two-goal third period to seal the deal, the Boston Bruins have won their third in a row after beating the Canadiens 4-1 in Montréal in yesterday’s Game of the Day.

    The only goal of the first period occurred at the 13:08 mark, courtesy of Max Talbot, his second of the season.

    The Habs leveled the score at one-all 8:48 after resuming play with Third Star of the Game Mark Barberio’s first goal of the season, assisted by P.K. Subban (his 30th helper of the season) and David Desharnais, but the Bruins were able to take the lead again 3:11 before the second intermission with First Star Patrice Bergeron’s game-winner (his 18th goal of the season), assisted by David Pastrnak and Dennis Seidenberg.

    Boston scored their first insurance goal of the evening at the 12:14 mark of the final period, scored by Pastrnak (his fourth tally of the season) and assisted by Zac Rinaldo and Joe Morrow.  The final goal was an empty netter from Brad Marchand, assisted by Loui Eriksson (his 23rd helper of the season), setting the score at the 4-1 final.

    Second Star Tuukka Rask improves his record to 16-13-4 after saving 38 of 39 (97.4%), while Mike Condon’s falls to 12-12-4 after saving only 20 of 23 (87%).

    The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 43-20-9, favoring the home squad by 31 points over the roadies.

    A busy Tuesday schedule makes way for a light Wednesday, as their are only three games taking place today.  The action gets started at 8 p.m. eastern when St. Louis visits their old friends in Detroit (NBCSN/TVAS/SN), followed two hours later by Buffalo at Colorado (BELL TV).  This evening’s nightcap drops the puck at 10:30 p.m. eastern, when Minnesota visits Anaheim (NBCSN/SN).

    There are no division rivalries being played tonight, and St. Louis at Detroit represents the only matchup between teams currently qualifying for the playoffs.

    While the BluesRed Wings game would be fun for a variety of reasons (Speaking of, I have not featured the Red Wings enough this season… We’ll consider that a note for another day), I’m attracted to another game tonight, as Buffalo visits the Mile High City with a couple of old friends.

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    Tonight’s game will only be Buffalo‘s second appearance in the Game of the Day series, with their only other showing being a 4-3 loss in Pittsburgh on October 29.  Colorado has been featured twice before tonight, and own a 1-1-0 record in the series.  Their most recent game with our attention was 6-3 loss in Chicago on January 10.

    With the Sabres visiting Colorado this evening, Jamie McGinn and Ryan O’Reilly will be making their first appearances in the Pepsi Center since being traded during the 2015 Entry Draft.

    McGinn spent a total of 162 games over four seasons with the Avs, with his best season by far being his 2013-’14 campaign in which he scored 38 points (evenly split between assists and goals) and helped Colorado to their first division title in 11 years, although they could not advance beyond the first round after a 4-3 overtime loss to Minnesota on home ice.

    O’Reilly had a longer career in Colorado, playing 427 games over six seasons.  Similar to McGinn, O’Reilly’s best season was the division championship campaign, where he scored 28 goals and 36 assists for 64 points with a 13.9% season shooting percentage, his best to date, although he has the potential to best that stat with a current 15.6% this season.  That strong shooting percentage is what he’s used to lead his team in scoring, with 17 goals to his credit.

    The 19-23-4 Buffalo Sabres currently sit in seventh place in the Atlantic Division and 14th in the Eastern Conference.  Their success has been found on the defensive end, although they are still below-average in that end.

    Even with Josh Gorges’ team-leading 98 blocks, Buffalo has allowed 1372 shots to reach 12-12-2 Chad Johnson and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91.8% for 120 goals against, 13th-most in the league.  The first step in improving this defense should be to beef up the penalty kill, as the special teams have only killed 79.28% of opposing power plays for 23 goals against (four below the league average).

    The offense has been the main thing holding the Sabres back this season.  Led by Jack Eichel’s 143 shots, Buffalo has fired the puck 1368 times, of which only 7.7% have found the back of the net for 106 goals (led by O’Reilly’s 17 tallies), fourth-fewest in the league.  Although the offense as a whole has not found much success, the Sabres‘ power play has still been strong, scoring on 20.41% of opportunities for 30 goals (led by O’Reilly’s seven tallies).

    The Sabres are currently riding two-game win streak, with their most recent being a 2-1 victory in Arizona on Monday.  A win tonight might do more harm than good at this point in the season, as it will take a miracle for Buffalo to qualify for the playoffs.

    The 23-21-3 Colorado Avalanche currently occupy fifth place in the Central Division and eighth in the Western Conference, good enough to qualify them for the second wild card position.  The Avs play one of the top-five offenses in the league, but have not been able put their opponents away due also having a bottom-ten defense.

    Even with Nathan MacKinnon’s 157 shots, Colorado has fired the puck only 1337 times, of which 9.8% have found the back of the net for 131 goals (led by Matt Duchene’s 22 tallies), fifth-most in the NHL.  Colorado‘s power play is slightly better than Buffalo‘s, as they’ve scored on 20.89% of opportunities for 33 goals (led by Jarome Iginla’s seven extra-man tallies).  That stat does come with a qualifier though, as the Avs have given up five shorthanded goals this season, two more than the league average.

    As good as the offense has been, it’s a shame Colorado hasn’t done much to improve the blue line.  Although Francois Beauchemin has 143 blocks to his credit, 1454 shots have made their way to 16-12-3 Semyon Varlamov and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91.5% for 130 goals against, seventh-most in the league.  The shining spot for this defense has been their penalty kill, as not only have they killed 80.54% for 29 power play goals against, but they’ve also scored four shorthanded goals, led by Blake Comeau’s two.

    The Avalanche won their most recent game 2-1 in Winnipeg on Monday.  A Colorado win has the potential to pull them within a game of Minnesota for the first wild card spot, but a regulation loss allows Vancouver to take their spot in the second wild card position.

    Some players to watch include Buffalo‘s O’Reilly (39 points, including 17 goals, 10 of which were at even-strength, with the remaining seven being power play tallies [all lead the team]) and Colorado‘s Duchene (22 goals [tied for sixth-most in the league]).

    Based on standings alone, you’d like to think the Avs would win this game regardless of location, but that defense does not leave me with a good taste in my mouth.  I think I’ll pick Colorado, but I believe it will be a nail-biter.

  • October 29 – Day 23 – Back to his Beginnings

    I don’t know about you, but yesterday’s Game of the Day did not end as I expected, as the Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Washington Capitals 3-1 at the Verizon Center.  Phil Kessel, assisted by Evgeni Malkin and David Perron, notched the game winner at the 3:49 mark of the third period.

    Washington waited to open the scoring until the 1:28 mark of the final period.  Karl Alzner assisted Evgeny Kuznetsov to his fourth goal of the season to give the Caps a one-goal lead, but it was short lived – only 24 seconds, in fact, as Nick Bonino and Olli Maatta assisted Beau Bennett to the game-tying goal.  Bonino also scored an empty netter with under two minutes remaining in the game.

    Marc-Andre Fleury earned his fifth win of the season by stopping 33 of 34 shots (97.1%) to set his record at 5-4-0, while Braden Holtby takes the loss, his second of the season, after allowing two of 24 shots faced (91.7%).

    The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 13-6-3, favoring the home team by nine points.

    Tonight’s schedule is another full one, with a total of eight games on the night.  The action gets started at 7 p.m. eastern when three games get started (Carolina at the New York Islanders, New Jersey at Philadelphia and Buffalo at Pittsburgh [Bell TV]), followed half an hour later by Colorado at Tampa Bay.  Beginning at 8 p.m. eastern are two games (Anaheim at St. Louis and Chicago at Winnipeg), followed half an hour later by Vancouver at Dallas.  Finally, the night begins to see its end at 9 p.m. eastern when Montréal visits Edmonton (SN, SN360, RDS).

    Of tonight’s matchups, three are divisional rivalries (Carolina at the Isles, New Jersey at Philadelphia and Chicago at Winnipeg) and only one game featuring two teams currently in playoff position (Vancouver at Dallas).

    Those games being noted, there is another matchup that strikes my fancy, as it is the first return of an ex-coach to play against his ex-team.  That man is none other than Dan Bylsma, who is featured in the BuffaloPittsburgh matchup.

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    I know, we watched Pittsburgh yesterday, but this is a significant return.  Although under slightly bizarre circumstances, Bylsma is the last coach to lead the Pens to the Stanley Cup.  Plus, it’s Game of the Day’s first opportunity to see Jack Eichel in action, so I shouldn’t hear any complainers.

    Coach Bylsma returns to the home arena of the team he led to the 2009 Stanley Cup with only 25 regular season games coached after replacing Michel Therrien mid-season.  Winner of the 2010-’11 Jack Adams Award, Bylsma is the winningest coach in team history (252 wins, 20 more than Eddie Johnston), as well as the coach with the highest win percentage (67%).

    As we all know, the reason for Bylsma’s departure from the Triangle was not his regular season success, but his post-season letdowns.  Under his direction, the Penguins improved every regular season until the 2013-’14 season, beginning in his first full season with a .616 point percentage that grew to .75 by the time of his release.  However, his postseason win-loss percentage is a different story.  During his tenure the team won the Cup, then fell in the conference semifinals, followed by falling in the conference quarterfinals twice in a row, improving to the conference finals, then finally the semifinals.  While some teams would love to make the playoffs on a consistent basis and make it past the first round most of the time, the Pittsburgh teams he coached were built to win, and only one cup did not satisfy ownership.

    The Buffalo Sabres are currently 3-6-0 coming off a 4-3 win over Philadelphia on Tuesday.  While folks in Upstate New York may be excited to usher in the Eichel Era, there have been some growing pains so far this season.  The team has scored four goals less and given up five over the league average.  The offensive production may be more due to bad luck though, as the Sabres have put 283 shots on goal so far this season, 21 over the league average, but only 6.7% of those attempts are finding the back of the net.

    Probably the most exciting part about this Sabres team is their power play.  The special teams have accounted for nine goals so far this season (three over the league average) on 36 opportunities, giving them a 25% success rate that exceeds the league average by 6.39%.

    Sadly, this positive comes with its own negative, as the penalty kill is vastly inferior to the rest of the NHL.  Buffalo has given up seven power play goals so far on only 23 opportunities (seven under the league average), giving them an atrocious penalty kill percentage of 69.57%, 11.82% under the league average.  Fortunately for the Sabres, they have been limiting penalties to a minimum to avoid man-down situations as much as possible, but penalties do happen and this statistic may be a monkey that hangs on the squad’s back for the entire season.

    As explained yesterday, Bylsma’s old team is leaning heavily on Fleury and the defense, and there has been no indication that Jeff Zatkoff will see his first playing time tonight, although I don’t think anyone would be surprised if he did, given that Fleury has played every minute of all nine games this season.

    Some players to watch in this one include Buffalo‘s Jake McCabe (two even strength goals [leads team] and 40% shot percentage [leads team]), Ryan O’Reilly (eight points [leads team], five assists [leads team], four power play assists [leads team]) & Sam Reinhart (+2 Corsi rating [leads team] and three even-strength assists [leads team]) and Pittsburgh‘s Malkin (seven points [leads team], four assists [leads team], three even-strength assists [leads team], two game-winners [leads team] and 13.6% shot percentage [leads team]) and, should he play, Fleury (five wins [tied for third in league], one shutout [tied for sixth in the league], 1.9 GAA [eighth in the league] and .936 save percentage [ninth in the league]).

    Conventional wisdom points to the Penguins being favored in this one, but I think Pittsburgh‘s poor power play provides the Sabres a way to keep this one closer than expected.

  • Some Trade Deadline Analysis- Expert Analysis

    Colby Kephart takes a moment out of the week to give some analysis on how he thinks a few teams made out on their deadline deals.

    Trade Deadline Roundups

    By Colby Kephart

    Buffalo Sabres LogoBuffalo Sabres

    Cleaning house and praying for McDavid are all things the people in Buffalo are doing. Embrace the Tank, the competition to finish last place in the league might be given Buffalo now. Tim Murray said only a few people were off limits, and this was seen when veterans and small name players were traded.

    There were a few surprising moves, such as the trade with Montreal, which saw Buffalo giving up Brian Flynn and Torrey Mitchell for picks and prospect.

    Mitchell, when healthy, was having a good season and became a more consistent scorer than Matt Moulson or Brian Gionta.

    Flynn was a very small name at the start of season, but he was a hard worker for Buffalo and a very good penalty killer. Both of them are great role players and I could see one if not both players breaking into the Montreal roster.

    Buffalo fans saw yet another change in goal- ever since Ryan Miller left Buffalo, goaltending has been up for grabs. We saw both goalies leave, the first move sending Jhonas Enroth for Anders Lindback and a conditional 3rd round pick. This was brilliant move, for the operation tank, Lindback has struggled all year and will guarantee Buffalo a few more losses.

    The move I am happy with is sending Michal Neuvirth for Chad Johnson for conditional 3rd round pick. Chad Johnson signed a multiply year deal at the start of this season, meaning he will be back next season to be a backup to either a young goalie in our system or a free agent signing.

    The Sabres also saw a loss in experienced players with the moves of Chris Stewart, Drew Stafford, and Tyler Myers.B_HSHvkU0AM_N9V

    The first deal was the trade with Winnipeg before the deadline; I have mixed feeling about this move. Buffalo gave up a 1st round pick, Joel Armia, Brendan Lemieux, Drew Stafford, and Tyler Myers for Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian and Jason Kasdorf (prospect goalie). I love the addition of Bogosian, and Kane, but the Sabres gave up a lot for those players.

    Kane announced before the trade, he was done for the season due to an injury to his shoulder. That was the best part of the deal, Kane a highly skilled forward, won’t be adding wins the season due to his injury, pushing buffalo closer to McDavid.

    The second trade came late in the day of the deadline and sent Chris Stewart to Minnesota for a 2nd round pick. Everyone in Buffalo knew Chris Stewart was going to leave Buffalo, yet the only question was where and for what. I think Buffalo could’ve have gotten a little more from the deal, but it made sense to send another player to Minnesota or “little Buffalo” as I refer to it.

    (Tank Photo Credit: Kevin Gee @kgfrombeelo)

    Unknown-4Minnesota Wild

    Minnesota is trying to hold onto the 1st wildcard, so no surprise they added depth in both forwards and on the blue line. I am very impressed with the management in Minnesota; it was nice to see humility within the NHL. Minnesota is a special case; they have a strong mixture of youth players and have enough experience to keep winning into the playoffs.

    Minnesota made 3 deals on deadline day. The first deal was a great story; the deal brought Jordan Leopold home to his family in return for Justin Falk and 5th round pick. Jordan Leopold’s daughter, Jordyn, wrote a letter to Minnesota asking them to trade for the dad, who was in Columbus, but wasn’t playing much. Leopold was a top 6 defender in the past few years, but because of his age he had fallen out of the top 6, so the move to Minnesota could rebirth his career. Even if he becomes a depth defenseman at least he will be home with his kids.

    The next pick was the exchange in younger players the deal saw Zack Phillips to Boston for Jarred Knight. In this transaction, both team are hoping that relocation can spark these players and continue developing.

    The last deal saw the addition to the forwards with Chris Stewart coming over from Buffalo for a 2nd round pick. Chris Stewart can add a spark to Minnesota. We saw a lot of this in Buffalo, as he is not afraid to drop the gloves. Stewart can also add an explosion of offensive ability with fast skating and being strong with the puck. I think Minnesota will make the playoffs and give a top seed a run in the playoffs.

    UnknownNashville Predators

    Nashville was one of the biggest surprises of this season, sitting in first place in the whole league. They added James Neal and other pieces and experienced a huge step-up in younger players like Filip Forsberg. However could they have made a huge mistake by not adding at the deadline? Nashville made one trade before deadline day and the deal added depth both offensively and defensively.

    After Toronto Maple Leafs GM Dave Nonis determined no one was off limits and the big names must go, the deal saw Nashville send a 1st round pick, Olli Jokinen and Brendan Leipsic to Toronto for Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli. I love the addition of Cody Franson; he is only 27 years old and still has the ability to be a top 4 defender.

    Santorelli is a role player and can play his role well. He is a step up from Leipsic, but I think the Preds could’ve gotten more from the Maple Leafs. I understand giving up their 1st round pick assuming that they will have either the 29th or 30th overall pick in the draft.

    The issue Nashville has is a lack of playoff experience. If you look at teams who go far in the playoffs, they add big name players. The New York Rangers added Martin St. Louis and the Los Angeles Kings added Marian Gaborik last year, and even this year the Chicago Blackhawks added Antoine Vermette.

    No offense to Mike Santorelli, but he is not enough of an impact player to get 8-12 playoff goals or even getting to the double digits in points. I personally think Nashville will see an exit in either the 1st or the 2nd round because they didn’t add a big name.

    Unknown-3Toronto Maple Leafs

    Is the rebuild real in Toronto? I honestly don’t know any more after this deadline day. Toronto has struggled over the past few season to make the playoffs (or they see an early exit, like in 2013). That’s not the issue in my eyes.

    The issue to me is they never add players to change their current fate. So when GM Dave Nonis said they were going to clean house and trade big players like Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf, I saw change and big names on the move. Then they made four trades and only two on deadline day- I was shocked and saw same old Toronto missing a huge chance.

    The first deal was possibly the GM move of the year and saw David Clarkson go to Columbus for the injured Nathan Horton. Horton hasn’t played for months and Clarkson was a way overpaid forward, who wasn’t living up to his contract. So Horton gets put on the long term Injured reserve and his contract doesn’t completely count against the salary cap.

    The second deal before the deadline was with Nashville. This trade saw Toronto get a 1st round pick, Olli Jokinen, and Brendan Leipsic for Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli. This deal fit what Nonis had told the media and his team about cleaning out the roster and initiating the rebuild.

    This deal got them another 1st round pick and two players who will work hard. Jokinen then played a few games and was very unhappy with his new team. So the next deal still made sense to me at the deadline- Jokinen was traded to the Blues for Joakim Lindstrom and a conditional sixth round draft pick. This move was still smart, sending an unhappy veteran player for a young prospect and a pick.

    Now Detroit was very interested in Phaneuf and Toronto couldn’t make the deal happen. They were asking a lot for their captain, but in the long run wouldn’t let him go. This was confusing because in a rebuild you have to let some players go that you don’t want to, like what Buffalo did with Ryan Miller.

    The final deal made absolutely no sense to me at all. The deal was Korbinian Holzer to Anaheim for Eric Brewer and a 5th round pick. Toronto gave up a 27-year-old defenseman for a 35 year old man with a bigger contract. Holzer had less than 40 games played with this team, never really got a long run, and to just get rid of him is beyond me.

    The Maple Leafs essentially gave up a future kid that they could have developed (and used, badly). Toronto did not give up any big pieces like they said they would, they have the same base players and if changes aren’t made they will have the same disappointment at the end of each season.