Down the Frozen River

Tag: Buffalo Sabres

  • 2018 Mock Draft: First Draft of the First Round

    ‘Tis the season to freak out over the teens.

    It’s time for the annual conspiracy theories surrounding the NHL Entry Draft Lottery and things that require more critical thinking, like this mock draft.

    It’s not easy to predict how every player– drafted or undrafted– will perform as they embark on making their mark at the professional level, but it’s worth the fun if you’re merely passing the time between the end of the regular season and the Entry Draft in June and your team missed the postseason.

    Otherwise, you’re probably too focused on your team’s current playoff series to really get into a deep-dive on why your team should have taken Player A instead of Player B with the 27th overall pick in the 1st round– and that’s probably for the better. Hindsight is always 20/20 and you really shouldn’t put more stress on your heart than it is already taking from every tumbling muffin of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    This is just the first of three editions of my mock draft from now until draft day (June 22nd).

    This year’s NHL Entry Draft is being held at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas from June 22nd-23rd.

    Draft lottery results (a synopsis): Carolina leaped into a top-three pick, as did Montreal, while Ottawa fell from second to fourth overall and Arizona fell from third to fifth.

    2018_NHL_Entry_Draft_logo.png

    1. Buffalo Sabres –> D Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (Sweden)

    The Sabres already have a solid group of young forwards, why not add the best player in the draft into the mix? Oh yeah, and he’s a two-way defenseman, so that’ll finally help Buffalo (think back to Tyler Myers‘s rookie season, only much, much better). At 6-foot-2, 181-pounds, Dahlin is the perfect fit on the blueline as someone who can shutdown and get the puck out of the zone.

    2. Carolina Hurricanes–> RW Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie (OHL)

    The second-best prospect in the draft, Svechnikov’s nothing to feel bad about, especially for the Hurricanes, who, unlike the Sabres, already have a plethora of youth and skill on the back end and will now finally have that missing piece among their forwards. He had 40-32–72 totals in 44 games with the Barrie Colts– in just his first season of Junior hockey.

    3. Montreal Canadiens–> LW Brady Tkachuk, Boston University (H-East)

    Tkachuk is big and strong. That’s what the Canadiens have been trying to add, but not in the right way the last few seasons. They’ve got their guy in Tkachuk, though, he’s intense, gritty and, more importantly, has scoring ability. Something Montreal has lacked for a year or two– and desperately needs in an ever-evolving speed and skill game.

    4. Ottawa Senators–> RW Filip Zadina, Halifax (QMJHL)

    One of the most dynamic goal scorers and underrated players, Zadina could go in the top-three, but falls into Ottawa’s lap as the perfect fit. He had 44 goals in 57 games for the Halifax Mooseheads– who just keep churning out quality player after player, year-to-year.

    5. Arizona Coyotes–> RW Oliver Wahlstrom, USA U-18 (USNTDP)

    A lot of experts have Wahlstrom falling somewhere near 10th overall. I’m no expert, but I do believe he’s a bit better than that. After all, Wahlstrom had 47 goals in 60 games this season and only has more room to grow with the youth infused Coyotes. He’ll fit in with his hands and scoring prowess.

    6. Detroit Red Wings–> D Quintin Hughes, Michigan (BIG10)

    Detroit has a need for a good, young defender and Hughes fits that bill. Torey Krug is the player that comes to mind when watching Hughes control the game. Did I mention he’s got a hard, accurate, shot like Krug too?

    7. Vancouver Canucks–> D Evan Bouchard, London (OHL)

    Losing the Sedins to retirement hurts a bit less when you add one of the best new-age defenders that put up 25-62–87 totals in 67 games for the London Knights this season. Bouchard should make Vancouver better at transitioning the puck up ice and getting it to their core players, like Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser.

    8. Chicago Blackhawks–> D Adam Boqvist, Brynas (SWE-JR)

    Chicago is rather depleted on the blueline since they lost Trevor van Riemsdyk in the Vegas expansion draft. They’ve also got an aging problem, with Duncan Keith (34) and Brent Seabrook (33) signed for a long time. With proper development, Boqvist should come into his own and start carrying the Blackhawks defense in due time.

    9. New York Rangers–> C Rasmus Kupari, Karpat (Finland)

    The first of three first round picks, the Rangers can’t go wrong selecting the best Finnish forward in the draft. With Ryan Spooner as a pending-RFA and more to sort out this offseason, New York’s looking to make smart picks in both the now and down the road. A 6-foot-1, 183-pound center isn’t the worst place to start as they continue to transition their game with the likes of Lias Andersson, Spooner and Vladislav Namestnikov.

    10. Edmonton Oilers–> D Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst (QMJHL)

    Peter Chiarelli wants a young defenseman that can get pucks up the ice to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl instead of having to over rely on Kris Russell to block shots. Thankfully, Dobson can be that defenseman without the Oilers having to work a potential trade with that other team in Alberta for Dougie Hamilton.

    11. New York Islanders–> C/LW Isac Lundestrom, Lulea (Sweden)

    In the first of back-to-back picks, the Islanders look to round-out a group of young forwards that can develop and work together.

    12. New York Islanders (via Calgary Flames)–> LW Joel Farabee, USA U-18 (USNTDP)

    That’s where Farabee can become the winger to Lundestrom’s line someday or something, I’m sure. New York is too busy trying to re-sign John Tavares right now, probably.

    13. Dallas Stars–> D Ty Smith, Spokane (WHL)

    Whoever ends up as the new head coach in Dallas should have no problem making that offense work. It seems like the Stars could get away with highway robbery, having Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov on the same line, if they could just get things going. Having said that, Smith adds to the transition game that’s already pretty strong (and reliant) on John Klingberg.

    14. Philadelphia Flyers (via St. Louis Blues)–> D Bode Wilde, USA U-18 (USNTDP)

    An underrated defender, Wilde, should become a decent top-four blueliner in an already stacked group of young players for the Flyers. Now if only they could finally do something about that goaltending…

    15. Florida Panthers–> C Barrett Hayton, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

    Hayton had 21 goals and 39 assists (60 points) in 63 games for the Greyhounds this season and should help the Panthers ease the loss of Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault to the Golden Knights last June. The only problem might be that Hayton could need a year or two, but it’s a gain, nonetheless as he’s one of the “best available” picks that slides a bit and lands in Florida’s lap.

    16. Colorado Avalanche–> C Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Assat (Finland)

    Colorado makes out with a pretty safe pick that can take his time to develop for a year while the Avalanche continue to make some noise in the Central Division that, after Winnipeg and Nashville, looks like it’s anyone’s game.

    17. New Jersey Devils–> C Joseph Veleno, Drummondville (QMJHL)

    Veleno shouldn’t be overlooked as he had 22-57–79 totals in 64 games for Drummondville this season. Thankfully the Devils know talent when they see it and can continue transitioning to a youthful roster that’ll compliment Nico Hischier and Taylor Hall pretty well.

    18. Columbus Blue Jackets–> C Jack McBain, Toronto (OJHL)

    The Blue Jackets take a risk that’s worth it in a couple of years, focusing on a playmaker that should fit the likes of Artemi Panarin and Co. pretty well in front of The Fifth Line at Nationwide Arena.

    19. Philadelphia Flyers–> LW Girgori Denisenko, Yaroslavl 2 (Russia)

    Whereas the Flyers went with a defender for their first pick in the first round, they should opt for a forward five picks later. Denisenko is crafty and should really come into his own in two-to-three years.

    20. Los Angeles Kings–> RW Serron Noel, Oshawa (OHL)

    No doubts about it, Noel is the prototypical power-forward that fits the Kings well. The 6-foot-5, 205-pound right-winger just might fall far enough for Los Angeles’s taking. His offensive skills add to the emergence of youth in Hollywood that’s bound to regain control of the Pacific.

    21. San Jose Sharks–> D Jared McIsaac, Halifax (QMJHL)

    22. Ottawa Senators (via Pittsburgh Penguins)–> D Ryan Merkley, Guelph (OHL)

    23. Anaheim Ducks–> C Benoit-Olivier Groulx, Halifax (QMJHL)

    24. Minnesota Wild–> D Rasmus Sandin, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

    25. Toronto Maple Leafs–> RW Akil Thomas, Niagara (OHL)

    26. Washington Capitals–> D Mattias Samuelsson, USA U-18 (USNTDP)

    27. Detroit Red Wings (via Vegas Golden Knights)–> C/LW Filip Hallander, Timra (Sweden)

    28. New York Rangers (via Boston Bruins)–> D Adam Ginning, Linköping (SHL)

    29. New York Rangers (via Tampa Bay Lightning)–> C/LW Ryan McLeod, Mississauga (OHL)

    30. St. Louis Blues (via Winnipeg Jets)–> C David Gustafsson, HV71 (SHL)

    31. Chicago Blackhawks (via Nashville Predators)–> D Alexander Alexeyev, Red Deer (WHL)

  • Snowed Under: Wild fall 2-0 to Jets, face 3-1 series defecit

     

    In the midst of a Minnesota snowstorm, the hometown crowd watched their hopes all but buried as the Wild were simply unable to overcome their laundry list of injuries and a suffocating Winnipeg defense.

    Already without Ryan Suter, the Wild took another hammering blow late in Game 3 when Zach Parise got sandwiched by Mark Scheifele and Ben Chiarot and suffered a fractured sternum (side note: ouch) that rules him out of the rest of the playoffs. Parise’s spot in the lineup would be filled by Tyler Ennis, seeing his first NHL playoff action since 2011 when the diminutive forward was a member of the Buffalo Sabres.

    Winnipeg was not without their own injury problems, losing Tyler Myers after an awkward collision with Marcus Foligno in Game 3. Though not as key an element to his team as Parise is to the Wild, Myers still eats a lot of quality minutes on the Winnipeg blueline. Young Tucker Poolman would taste his first ever playoff action as he filled in for the towering Myers.

    The game started much the same as it ended…and middle-d…you know what I mean.

    Tight checking, excellent stick position, and a near-complete lack of offensive chances were a theme in this one. Not to say that there wasn’t action, as from the opening puck drop the two teams continued the series’ main theme: That is, both teams spent every shift actively trying to kill each other. Arguably 2018’s roughest series so far, it isn’t even so much the quantity of hits we’ve seen in this one, but moreso that every hit we do see is thrown with seemingly as much force as it can possibly be delivered with. No great wonder why so many players are nursing injuries.

    Other than a brief flurry by Winnipeg that Devan Dubnyk answered with three or four quality stops about 8:30 into the frame, the opening 10 minutes had little to speak of in terms of scoring opportunities.

    Finally it was Minnesota who started to find some traction, first coming from an unlikely source in their fourth line of Foligno – Joel Eriksson Ek – Daniel Winnik, who deployed an effective dump and chase strategy, sending two forecheckers in hard and fast to get the Winnipeg defense in deep, then working the puck free to a second wave usually of the third forward and a pinching defenseman. All Minnesota lines adopted the strategy for a solid few minutes in the late first, and all had decent chances, including Nino Niederreiter feeding Eric Staal right in the goal mouth, only to have an excellent backhand chance waffled away by Connor Hellebuyck. Shortly after, Minnesota’s sustained pressure forced the Jets into a penalty, and on the resulting power play Josh Morrissey got away with an egregious cross-check to the face/neck of Staal, who lay on the ice for a few seconds before slowly making his was to the bench all while play continued around him. The Minnesota crowd was…less than pleased.

    To continue their displeasure, shortly after the penalty concluded, it would be Morrissey starting a breakout to Scheifele, who played a give-and-go with Kyle Connor beautifully, taking Connor’s drop pass in the low slot and ripping a snapshot through traffic and over Dubnyk with just 28 seconds left to play, sending the Minnesota crowd into a symphony of boos so loud I think P.K. Subban actually might have heard them.

    Minnesota ended the period leading 10-7 in shots, but down on the board. Shot blocking was a major theme of the first period, and the game, really. It also contributed to the growing list of banged up players, as both Mathew Dumba and Dustin Byfuglien left the ice at different points in the first because of shot blocks.

    The second started with a bang, as on the opening shift the Wild jumped on a turnover by Jacob Trouba and flew up the ice on a three-on-one lead by Mikael Granlund. #64 in green showed Hellebucyk shot all the way, but with just inches to spare sent a pass across the crease to Dumba who looked to have a sure goal, before the glove of Hellebucyk robbed him blind. A few minutes later Jonas Brodin sprung Niederreiter on a breakaway with an unbelievable stretch pass (that frankly I have no idea how Nino even managed to corral on his stick) but just before he could get the shot off a desperate Morrissey poked the puck off of his stick and clear of danger.

    Dubnyk would see little action of serious consequence in the middle frame, a few whacks at a centered puck in the blue paint by Adam Lowry the only real threat of the second 20 minutes. The Wild did, however, lose Granlund for a few minutes in the middle of the frame, but he would return to finish the game. Also of note was Dumba taking a run at Byfuglien, which worked out about as well as you’d expect.

    Late in the period Brodin nearly played hero himself, absolutely dancing a Winnipeg defender at the blueline and walking in to label a wrist shot for the high blocker side of Hellebucyk, but the newly-elected Vezina candidate had the answer, as was the case all night.

    By the end of the second the Wild lead 20-19 on the shot clock, but struggled to find room to construct any serious chances.

    The Jets took the attack to Minnesota for stretches of the third, attempting to prevent them from even having the chance to tie the game. An early chance by Joe Morrow found a goal post, and later Scheifele found one of his own, which created some chaos around the Wild goal that Dubnyk had to tidy up. Laine then got a breakaway opportunity in the dying minutes of the third that was harassed just enough by Spurgeon to allow Dubnyk to poke the puck away before any harm could come.

    It took Minnesota until just under two minutes remaining to gain enough solid puck possession to get Dubnyk off, but the extra attacker still couldn’t help them solve the labyrinth that was Winnipeg’s defensive scheme, and Scheifele buried the 2-0 dagger with 10 seconds remaining to seal Minnesota’s fate.

    Outshot 30-28, the Jets took the first road victory of the series, giving them the chance to win the first playoff series in franchise history in front of what will surely be a raucous Winnipeg Whiteout crowd on Friday night (DTFR coverage brought to you again by yours truly).

    How Minnesota finds a way to extend this series is beyond me. The injuries to key players just seem to be too much for them to overcome. They’ll need nothing short of a miracle to make it back to Xcel Energy Center for Game 6.

  • Sharks Move On From Past; Ducks Mired in It

     

    Game 3 was a must-win for the Anaheim Ducks after losing two games at home to the San Jose Sharks.  The embarrassing 8-1 lost showed a tale of two California teams–one finally moving beyond the team helmed by Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton for the past decade and the other desperate to relive their past glory from 2007.  The team that has moved on from its past appears to be the team that will move on to Round 2, while the team trying to relive its past is learning a hard lesson–the NHL is not the same as it was in 2007.

    When the Ducks brought back Randy Carlyle, the thought was that his discipline was what was needed to get the team to the next level.  If this is what discipline looks like, I’d hate to see what anarchy would look like for this team.  10 penalties, including four from Captain Ryan Getzlaf (including a misconduct), who should know better.

    The Sharks breakaway speed has been a problem for the Ducks the entire series, and it was again in Game 3.  The Sharks started to break it open in the second period when two quick goals gave them a 3-1 lead.  The first of those two goals was scored by Joonas Donskoi on a nice feed from, who else, Evander Kane and the second saw Donskoi setting up Marcus Sorensen on another breakaway. It went downhill from there as John Gibson couldn’t bail out the Ducks and the score was 5-1 by the time the third period began, leading to the Ducks going to Ryan Miller in desperation.  It didn’t matter, despite a solid season, Miller would give up 3 goals in the third period.

    I don’t know if the Sharks are good enough for Buffalo to get that first round pick from the Kane deal, but it is clear that Kane fits right in on the team.  The Sharks don’t appear to be missing either Marleau or Thornton.  Without Jumbo out there, they are able to take advantage of their speed against a team like the Ducks.  This is the way hockey is played in 2018.

    The Ducks, on the other hand, are playing with a team built literally and figuratively for 2007.  Francois Beauchemin. Jason Chimera.  Ryan Kesler.  Miller. This doesn’t even include some of the guys not currently playing for the Ducks such as Kevin Bieksa, Antoine Vermette, Jared Boll and Chris Kelly.  Beauchemin played nearly 20 minutes, so its not as if he was a rarely-used third pairing defenseman.

    Some of that was certainly the result of injuries.  But the Ducks, in general, need to do what San Jose has done this year and start moving on from the past.  This isn’t Getzlaf and Corey Perry‘s team any more than the 2007 Ducks were Teemu Selanne‘s team–its Rickard Rakell‘s team.  Its Jakob Silfverberg‘s team.  Its Ondrej Kase‘s team.   Yes, Perry and Getzlaf will continue to be important, but their role should be a supporting role the way Selanne’s role was when he returned to Anaheim.  This is a young man’s league and you can’t build a team in this league around a core of 30-somethings.

    You also can’t build the team the Ducks need to build with Carlyle at the helm.  Bob Murray needs to learn from the mistakes of his mentor, Brian Burke.  When Burke got nostalgic and brought in Todd Bertuzzi, he messed with the chemistry he had created in Anaheim.  Murray needs to abandon nostalgia and build around youth and speed with Perry and Getzlaf there to provide just enough grit and physicality to balance things.

    The Ducks will have at least one more game in 2017-18.  Hopefully it is the end of an era and the beginning of a bright future.  They have the young players and prospects to do it, but they need to have faith to hand the team over to them.

    As for the Sharks, it is going to be fun to see what this team can do in the rest of the post-season, particularly as the next round is shaping up to be against the team with the Midas Touch, the Vegas Golden Knights.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #101- Vigno, Hitch and Stanley

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #101- Vigno, Hitch and Stanley

    Nick and Connor discuss the evolution of the game and how that plays into Alain Vigneault’s future, as well as Ken Hitchcock’s retirement. Also, a 2018 Stanley Cup Playoff First Round reaction through Game 1 in every series.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • Rangers, Vigneault will bounce back

    Shortly after their last game of the season on Saturday, the New York Rangers relieved Alain Vigneault of his head coaching duties. In his fifth year with the organization, the Rangers went 34-39-9 (77 points) and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

    It was Vigneault’s worst year in the Big Apple. It was a transition year for a team retooling on the fly– trading away Rick Nash, Ryan McDonagh, J.T. Miller and others for centerpieces in Ryan Spooner and Vladislav Namestnikov (among other assets).

    Now it’s time for someone else to take the reins behind the bench of King Henrik’s team.

    The clock is ticking in goaltender Henrik Lundqvist‘s quest for his first Stanley Cup. Vigneault was almost the man to do it having brought the Rangers all the way to the 2014 Stanley Cup Final in his first season with New York.

    That was the closest Lundqvist has ever been– just three wins away– but the Los Angeles Kings had other plans, given it only took them five games to beat New York for the Los Angeles’s second Stanley Cup championship in three years.

    It was the closest the Rangers had come to winning its first Cup since defeating the Vancouver Canucks in 1994.

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    The 2014-15 season witnessed a franchise record 113 points in the regular season– good enough to notch the President’s Trophy as the NHL’s best record that year. Vigneault’s team knocked out Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins in five games in the First Round in the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    Then New York got behind in the Second Round series with the Washington Capitals, 3-1. Chris Kreider tied Game 5, McDonagh scored the game winner in overtime and the Rangers rallied back in the series to force the first Game 7 at Madison Square Garden since Game 7 in the 1994 Stanley Cup Final against the Canucks.

    For the first time in Stanley Cup Playoff history, the Rangers were to battle the Tampa Bay Lightning for the Prince of Wales Trophy in the 2015 Eastern Conference Final.

    Despite a decisive 7-3 victory in Game 6 on the road at Amalie Arena, New York was shutout, 2-0, in Game 7 on home ice.

    They wouldn’t get another chance to come that close to the Stanley Cup Final with Vigneault behind the bench.

    The 2015-16 Rangers finished third in the Metropolitan Division with 101 points and battled Mike Sullivan‘s Penguins in the First Round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs. It only took five games for the Rangers to be eliminated in Pittsburgh’s tear through the playoffs to their first Cup since 2009.

    In 2016-17, New York regrouped with a 102-point season, but was cursed by the NHL’s current playoff format.

    The Rangers were relegated to the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference since three teams finished ahead of them in the Metropolitan Division with at least 108 points or more.

    New York had four more points in the regular season than the Ottawa Senators (98 points)– who finished second in the Atlantic Division– and seven more points than the Boston Bruins (95 points, 3rd in the Atlantic) and Toronto Maple Leafs (95 points, second wild card in the Eastern Conference by virtue of having three fewer regulation-plus-overtime wins than Boston).

    Vigneault’s team got by Michel Therrien’s Montreal Canadiens in six games of the First Round in what was touted as a rematch of the 2014 Eastern Conference Final.

    Then they ran into the streaking Senators who had beaten the Bruins in their own six game series.

    Ottawa jumped out to a 2-0 series lead with home ice advantage– despite having the worse of the two teams’s regular season records, but the Rangers seemed unfazed having won Games 3 and 4 at Madison Square Garden 4-1 and 4-1, respectively.

    Kyle Turris ended Game 5 almost six-and-a-half minutes into overtime at Canadian Tire Centre and the Rangers found themselves in a 3-2 series hole heading home for Game 6.

    Senators captain, Erik Karlsson, had a goal and an assist in Ottawa’s decisive 4-2 victory on road ice and New York hit the golf course after just two rounds of the 2017 postseason.

    Time kept ticking. Lundqvist got older.

    Management grew more frustrated with the lack of a direction.

    Dead last in the Metropolitan Division after all 82 games this season and under .500 for the first time since the 2003-04 season, Vigneault’s dismissal comes as no surprise.

    It’s what is expected of any organization that expects to finish first, but fails in a rather large fashion.

    Even more so with the league getting younger, skaters getting faster and teams placing more of an emphasis on a constant attack, a constant barrage of offense.

    Lias Andersson, Pavel Buchnevich, Spooner, Namestnikov and crew have already showcased a new face of the game in “The World’s Most Famous Arena”, while Vigneault’s systems might have been the only thing slowing them down in the waning days of the season.

    It was time to shake things up and head in that new face of the game’s direction.

    For the first time since the 1967-68 season only one coach was fired in-season (thanks to Mother Nature having played a part in extending the season by a day due to Boston’s rescheduled matchup from January with the Florida Panthers).

    Unfortunately for Vigneault, he was that coach.

    New York will be just fine.

    They’re stockpiled with prospects and have already integrated youth, skill and speed into their lineup.

    Now general manager Jeff Gorton will look to patch the blue line and give Lundqvist a high-caliber backup goaltender to ease the workload of the grueling regular season schedule.

    It might not be the quickest turnaround, but it shouldn’t turn out to become an annual groan-fest watching the Blueshirts next season.

    For Vigneault, there will be other opportunities.

    He led Vancouver to the 2011 Stanley Cup Final in the midst of President’s Trophy seasons. He led New York back to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time in a generation. He’ll be studying hard, but he’s still in demand.

    Somewhere there’s a team looking for his veteran coaching presence– like Buffalo– or a team that just missed the cut this season, but is on the brinks of a breakout year that very well might end up with their first Stanley Cup Final appearance since 1970– like St. Louis.

    But alas, this is all merely speculation.

    More coaches will be fired for their team’s shortcomings (of their own fault or otherwise) this offseason upon diligent review in front office’s league-wide.

    Rangers fans may be glad and it should be a mutual feeling of respect and good luck. They had a good run that lasted a while, but ultimately came up empty handed. Times have changed, players moved on and the game evolved.

    Somewhere, Vigneault is that missing piece a franchise is looking for and it won’t just be a team finally getting over that mountain, but a head coach too.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #100– DTFR100 Celebration

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #100– DTFR100 Celebration

    In a first, everyone (except for Jordan) appears on the Down the Frozen River Podcast to predict how the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will go before the 2017-18 NHL regular season even ends, technically speaking. The 100th episode anniversary is informally observed.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • Numbers Game: Last Week To Make It Count

    Ladies and gentlemen, the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin this month. It’s officially April. Start saving your money for either 1) playoff tickets or 2) tee times– there is no in-between.

    Each month has brought a new twist to the latest forecasted standings here on Down the Frozen River and in the spirit of finishing off the season, here’s one final look at how things should pan out with one week remaining in the 2017-18 regular season.

    It’s okay to tell Microsoft Excel you disagree, so by all means, take these numbers for what you want. A holistic viewpoint goes a lot further in the world of analytics and a salary cap. At this point, it’s almost worth more to focus on where your team is expected to fall in the standings than how many points they should amass on the season.

    And if you’re embracing the tank, you might as well forget about it. The NHL draft lottery usually shakes things up pretty well anyway.

    Anyway, here’s how the standings should shake out for all 31 NHL franchises based on their performances through March 31, 2018. Keep in mind my degree is in communication– not math. These are merely educated “I know how to use Excel to make things happen” guesses.

    2017-2018 Projected Standings after Five Months

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. p-Boston Bruins, 117 points (77 GP so far)
    2. x-Tampa Bay Lightning, 111 points (78 GP so far)
    3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 104 points (78 GP so far)
    4. Florida Panthers, 89 points (77 GP so far)
    5. Detroit Red Wings, 75 points (79 GP so far)
    6. Ottawa Senators, 73 points (78 GP so far)
    7. Montreal Canadiens, 70 points (78 GP so far)
    8. Buffalo Sabres, 64 points (78 GP so far)

    Surging through March despite numerous injuries, the Boston Bruins claw their way not only into first place in the Atlantic Division standings (and Eastern Conference standings as a whole), but they land themselves just their third President’s Trophy in franchise history as the league leaders at the conclusion of the 2017-18 regular season.

    Despite their late season hiccups, the Tampa Bay Lightning settle for 2nd in the Atlantic Division and gear up for what should be a deeper than the First Round playoff appearance.

    The Toronto Maple Leafs make some noise with their second consecutive postseason appearance, but are no match for the long journey to the Cup this season (give it one more postseason, Leafs fans. Next year, it’s totally your year).

    Somehow the Ottawa Senators string together a few wins to surpass the Montreal Canadiens. Meanwhile the Florida Panthers stumble just as quietly out of playoff contention as they began the season.

    Metropolitan Division

    1. y-Washington Capitals, 104 points (78 GP so far)
    2. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 99 points (79 GP so far)
    3. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 98 points (79 GP so far)
    4. wc1-New Jersey Devils, 98 points (78 GP so far)
    5. wc2-Philadelphia Flyers, 97 points (78 GP so far)
    6. Carolina Hurricanes, 83 points (79 GP so far)
    7. New York Rangers, 80 points (79 GP so far)
    8. New York Islanders, 78 points (79 GP so far)

    The Washington Capitals always seem to find a way to win their division. Especially in what has been Braden Holtby‘s season from hell (have you checked his goals against average and save percentage this season yet? Because if you’re a Caps fan and you haven’t, maybe you shouldn’t for your own good heading into the playoffs).

    In what has equally been as difficult a season for Matt Murray in goal for the Pittsburgh Penguins, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions should have home ice for a First Round matchup with the Columbus Blue Jackets that shouldn’t go less than seven games. Best friends in real life, Mike Sullivan and John Tortorella, just might put their friendship to the test for a couple of weeks.

    Both of the Eastern Conference wild cards are going to Metropolitan Division teams this season as the New Jersey Devils and Philadelphia Flyers are welcomed back to the postseason with open arms.

    If you’re a Carolina Hurricanes fan, next year seems enticing to break the playoff drought– and it’s only fitting, since 2019 will mark 10 years since Carolina last made the Stanley Cup playoffs.

    And if you’re John Tavares, maybe you’re looking elsewhere from the abysmal New York Islanders this offseason. Say for instance, the quickly rebuilding New York Rangers?

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. z-Nashville Predators, 114 points (78 GP so far)
    2. x-Winnipeg Jets, 114 points (78 GP so far)
    3. x-Minnesota Wild, 99 points (78 GP so far)
    4. wc1-St. Louis Blues, 98 points (78 GP so far)
    5. Colorado Avalanche, 94 points (78 GP so far)
    6. Dallas Stars, 89 points (79 GP so far)
    7. Chicago Blackhawks, 78 points (79 GP so far)

    The Nashville Predators edge out the Winnipeg Jets in regulation-plus-overtime wins to lay claim to the Western Conference’s best regular season record and home ice through the Western Conference Final. Both teams are set for what should at least be postseason appearances extending into the Second Round.

    Since Winnipeg is likely to knock out the Minnesota Wild in a quick series, let’s skip right over them to talk about the St. Louis Blues for a minute.

    They thought it was a great idea to get rid of Paul Stastny at the trade deadline– giving up his dominance on the faceoff dot– and yet, here they are with a final week of the season push for the playoffs.

    Of course, it helps that the Colorado Avalanche lost Semyon Varlamov and Erik Johnson to injuries (with the Johnson injury being the bigger blow to Nathan MacKinnon‘s Hart Trophy worthy season and the rest of the Avs).

    At least Tyler Seguin reached the 40-goal mark for the Dallas Stars and the Chicago Blackhawks still have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews.

    Pacific Division

    1. y-Vegas Golden Knights, 113 points (79 GP so far)
    2. x-San Jose Sharks, 101 points (79 GP so far)
    3. x-Los Angeles Kings, 95 points (79 GP so far)
    4. wc2-Anaheim Ducks, 95 points (78 GP so far)
    5. Calgary Flames, 85 points (79 GP so far)
    6. Edmonton Oilers, 79 points (79 GP so far)
    7. Vancouver Canucks, 75 points (79 GP so far)
    8. Arizona Coyotes, 72 points (79 GP so far)

    An expansion franchise almost clinched the Western Conference regular season title. The Vegas Golden Knights are that good and should make an impressive effort into at least the Second Round of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs. It’s pure insanity, but it’s fun to watch.

    If you’re a California resident, there’s good news, all three of your teams will be in the postseason (again). Just switch your hats and/or jerseys to whoever’s playing that night and hope for the best (pick San Jose, they seem like a good dark horse).

    The Calgary Flames get the honor of “best of the worst teams in the west”, which I’m sure will tie into the Stampede Festival somehow– if not solely because their owner is looking to stampede out of the city and into a new arena elsewhere.

    Poor Connor McDavid, it must be demoralizing to have back-to-back 100-point seasons on a team that has only made the playoffs once in his young career.

    And you probably shouldn’t write off the Arizona Coyotes entirely, because they very well could make the Vancouver Canucks look worse and jump from 8th to 7th in the division by season’s end.

    If you’re so inclined to see how things were expected to pan out this season back in October, you can do so here.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #98- Do Or Donato, There Is No Try

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #98- Do Or Donato, There Is No Try

    Nick and Connor rambled about the remaining weeks of the regular season, who will finish last in the NHL, if Boston can catch Tampa, Columbus’s hot streak and more. They also previewed and predicted eight of the NHL’s annual awards. Anze Kopitar has 86 points on the season– get it right, Nick.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • March 21 – Day 161 – Fallin’ for Dahlin

    It’s a Wednesday, so the NHL doesn’t have too many games on today’s schedule.

    Like most nights, this evening’s action finds its start at 7 p.m. with two tilts (Arizona at Buffalo and Montréal at Pittsburgh [RDS/SN]), followed an hour later by Boston at St. Louis (NBCSN/TVAS). Finally, Anaheim at Calgary (SN360) closes the night out with their fixture at 9:30 p.m. All times Eastern.

    Throughout the season, I’ve jotted down some notes about a couple of tonight’s games.

    • Montréal at Pittsburgh: It’s rare that a player can be so remembered in only three games with a club, but every Pens fan can tell you about G Antti Niemi‘s short three-game tenure with the squad to start the season.
    • Anaheim at Calgary: Playoff rematches from a year ago aren’t so important at this point in the season, but this is the Flames’ last chance to exact any revenge against the Ducks this campaign.

    Now, there’s certainly important games in terms of playoff implications being played tonight (looking at you St. Louis and, to a lesser extent, Calgary). However, for the last few days, my eyes have been drawn to the bottom of the league standings to what should be a better game between the Coyotes and Sabres than meets the eye, even if both clubs have a good chance at snagging the first-overall draft pick.

     

    While the 24-37-11 Coyotes are still a ways off of challenging Vegas for the top of the Pacific Division, they have not been playing as poorly as their position as second-to-last in the Western Conference would indicate. In fact, Arizona has posted a 6-3-1 record in its 10 games this March.

    The biggest reason for the Yotes’ most recent success goes by the name 16-16-6 G Antti Raanta. Even in the face of a defense that has allowed 31.3 shots against per game this calendar month (the 14th-fewest in the league in that time), Raanta has posted an impressive .941 save percentage and 2.01 GAA. This solid run has improved his season marks to a .925 save percentage and 2.41 GAA.

    Even with the Coyotes traveling to Raleigh after tonight’s game for a tilt against the Hurricanes tomorrow, it appears Raanta will man the pipes tonight as Joe Yerdon reported he was in the starter’s crease at this morning’s skate.

    Similar to Arizona, 23-37-12 Buffalo also hasn’t been as bad as last in the league would indicate lately. Not only have the Sabres posted a 3-4-1 record since March 2, but they’ve done it in light of facing a tough schedule (at Florida, vs. Toronto, vs. Calgary, vs. Vegas, vs. Toronto and vs. Nashville) that even the best of teams would struggle with.

    That being said, the biggest reason Buffalo still has a losing record over this eight-game run has to be its struggling defense. Even with F Ryan O’Reilly (10 takeaways in his last eight games) and D Rasmus Ristolainen (three hits per game and 1.8 blocks per game since March 2) pouring their hearts out on the defensive end, the Sabres are still allowing 36.75 shots against per game since March 2, the third-worst mark in the NHL in that time.

    As would be expected when faced with that kind of assault, the Sabres’ goaltenders have struggled to keep up. In his last three starts, 8-11-3 G Chad Johnson – tonight’s starter – has managed only a .9 save percentage and 4.11 GAA. While that save percentage is slightly better than the .897 he’s managed for the entire season, the sheer quantity of shots faced means his recent GAA is well over his 3.27 season mark.

    It’s at this point where we turn this preview on its head. I’m almost always of the opinion that players have little to no interest in tanking or improving draft odds, hence my struggle with the idea of tanking. Unless they’ve given up on their teammates, players and coaches are always going to put 100 percent effort into their play.

    However, I’m very certain General Managers Jason Botterill and John Chayka are keeping a close eye on this game and hoping that things go their clubs’ way… by things not going their clubs’ way. With that in mind, let’s discuss how much winning this game can do to impair either team’s chance at drafting first overall.

    As things currently stand, the Sabres are 31st in the league and have the best shot at the first overall pick (in other words, they have an 18 percent chance of drafting Rasmus Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov or Brady Tkachuk whomever they think is the best fit for their organization). However, it’s still a tight race at the bottom of the NHL, as the last three teams are separated by only one point. Should Buffalo win this game, it will vault Arizona and Vancouver into 29th in the league. Third-to-last has a 10.5 percent chance of drafting first overall.

    Speaking of 29th-place, that is exactly where the Coyotes currently reside since they’re winning (or losing, depending on how you look at it) a games-played tiebreaker with Vancouver. Should Arizona win tonight’s tilt, it will pull within two points of 28th-place Ottawa, the team that has a 9.5 percent chance of drafting first overall.

    The last time these teams squared off was November 2 at Gila River Arena, and it was an incredibly entertaining affair. Even though First Star LW Benoit Pouliot had scored two goals and tacked on another assist to give Buffalo a comfortable 5-1 lead, the Sabres allowed Arizona to score three third period goals. Buffalo was saved by the final horn and escaped the Grand Canyon State with a 5-4 victory.

    Based simply on defense, it looks like the Coyotes have the upper hand in this game. Mix in the fact that their offense has averaged 2.6 goals per game in March to Buffalo’s 2.25, and it becomes a no-brainer.

    In desperate need of two points, the Dallas Stars still sit on the outside of the playoff picture after losing yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day against the Washington Capitals 4-3 at Capital One Arena.

    The game started exactly how the Stars would have liked, as they entered the first intermission with a 1-0 advantage. With 3:56 remaining in the first frame, F Tyler Seguin (RW Alexander Radulov and Third Star of the Game D John Klingberg) took advantage of C Nicklas Backstrom getting thrown into the penalty box for tripping Klingberg to score a power play snap shot.

    However, it didn’t take long after the start of the second period for the Capitals to take a lead of their own. F T.J. Oshie (C Lars Eller and Second Star W Alex Ovechkin) got Washington on the scoreboard at the 4:07 mark of the frame with a wrist shot, and D Matt Niskanen followed him with an unassisted wrister only 1:25 later to give the Caps a 2-1 lead.

    Scoring subsided until 8:12 remained in the period when Radulov (Klingberg and LW Jamie Benn) leveled the game with a snapper, but Ovechkin (First Star D John Carlson and Oshie) regained a one-goal advantage for the Caps on a power play slap shot only 1:53 later. Benn completed the period’s scoring with a wrister, tying the score at 3-3 1:45 before the second intermission.

    As would be expected from a a tie entering the final 20 minutes of regulation, there was tons of action at both ends of the ice. In total, 21 shots on goal were registered between the two teams in the third frame – split as evenly as possible. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Capitals take credit for the remaining shot on goal, and it proved to be the game-winner.

    With 4:59 remaining in regulation and the teams playing under four-on-four conditions (C Radek Faksa and D Brooks Orpik were in the penalty box for respective slashing and roughing infractions against one another), Ovechkin collected a centering pass to nobody by Eller in the left corner. After advancing towards the trapezoid, the captain returned the puck to Eller waiting in the opposite corner, who saw Carlson wide open above the right face-off circle and delivered him a perfect setup pass. The defenseman one-timed a nasty clapper over G Kari Lehtonen‘s glove shoulder to set the 4-3 final score.

    G Braden Holtby earned the victory after saving 24-of-27 shots faced (.889 save percentage), leaving the loss to Lehtonen, who saved 28-of-32 (.875).

    Home teams are trying to reclaim their dominance in the DtFR Game of the Day series, as they’ve now earned points in three-consecutive games. As such, the 89-52-20 hosts now have a 35-point advantage over the roadies.

  • Merkle’s Weekly Bumblings: Week 23

    Skater of the Week: Alex Pietrangelo

    How about the defenseman getting some love, huh?

    In all honesty, this wasn’t even a case of picking him out for having a stellar week ‘as a defenseman’, he lead the entire league in scoring last week full-stop.

    The 6-foot-3 210 pound King City, Ont. native racked up three goals and six assists in four games this past week, including a goal and two helpers on the power play. He also averaged nearly 26 minutes of ice time per game in that stretch, remaining a key cog on the St. Louis blueline with his all-around strong play.

    Starting the week with a pair of assists against Anaheim on Monday, he had a forgettable outing against Colorado on Thursday with no points and a -3 rating. But after that he closed the week with a pair of stellar games, recording two goals (one on the power play) and an assist against the Rangers on Saturday, then followed up the next day with a four-point outing against Chicago, where he’d tally a goal and three assists, with two of the helpers coming on the man-advantage.

    Just one point shy of tying his career-high of 51 points after just 68 games played, and having already bested his previous goal-scoring mark (he’s now at 15, having posted a prior-best 14 last season), the 28 year-old looks set to be one of the NHL’s best defenders over the next few years. His Blues team may be in a bit of a reset right now after an up-and-down campaign, but with Pietrangelo as one of their key pieces moving forward, it’s easy to think they’ll be right back at the top of the league in very short order. Plus, it’s still not at all impossible for them to sneak into the playoffs if they can finish the season strong.

    Tendy of the Week: Curtis McElhinney

    I tell ya, that McElhinney, he’s a pretty good backup, ain’t he?

    There were more than a few terrific stretches by goaltenders this week, but I’m giving the nod to the guy you’d never expect to have a week like this. Plus, he’s a professional athlete that drives a, like, 15-year-old Volvo. He’s just the best.

    C-Mac made only two starts this week, but tallied three wins (because reasons), and posted a .955 save percentage and 1.57 GAA for the week. He started the week being brought in in relief of an injured Frederik Andersen on Wednesday night against Dallas (more on that game in a minute), playing just over 30 minutes and surrendering two goals on 15 shots. Not a great stat night, but he collected the W, anyway. Then, with Andersen out the rest of the week, McElhinney got the call the next night against Buffalo, turning aside 38-of-40, and again on Saturday against Montreal where he’d blank the Habs with a 33-save shutout.

    The 34-year-old career-journeyman goaltender now has a scarcely-believable 10-4-1 record this year with a 2.09 GAA and .935 save percentage. His style could be described as ‘Dominik Hasek, without the grace’, and there’s no real reason to suspect this season is any more than an anomaly in the career of a .908/2.87 goaltender, particularly one in his mid-30s, but you can’t help but root for a guy like McElhinney.

    Game of the Week: Dallas Stars 5 @ Toronto Maple Leafs 6 (SO), Wednesday March 14th, 2018

    Hmm, a Stars-Leafs game ended in a shootout with 11 total goals. Who could have seen that coming?

    68 shots, 59 hits, a James van Riemsdyk hat trick, and a comeback home team victory, what’s not to love?

    Seriously, you’re still here? Why are you not watching the highlights and/or Steve Dangle’s LFR on the game? Get outta here! GO!

    News, Notes, & Nonsense:

    As a member of a fanbase that once had a literal fan rally in support of essentially tactical-nuking our team’s front office, I’m fully behind the #MelnykOut movement.

    William Karlsson can’t stop scoring. Part of me believes this is yet another example of my team’s eternal curse of misusing a player and then trading him away to watch him become a star (read: Jakub Voracek), but the other part of me sees a .23 shooting percentage and can’t wait to watch everyone scream about how overpaid he is in a couple years when he’s putting up 15-25-40 seasons after the Knights sign him to a 100-year, eleventy-bazillion dollar contract.

    The NHL GM meetings are underway in Florida, so expect very little in the way of productive changes to rules, and expect very much in the way of surprisingly tan general managers.

    @jdettro and I touched the Stanley Cup last weekend, so don’t be surprised if it rusts now.

    Happy 70th birthday to Bobby Orr. I have nothing clever for this, just a birthday message.