Tag Archives: Brandon Carlo

Numbers Game: Boston Through 40 (2017-18)

As the calendar flips from 2017 to 2018 the NHL’s regular season keeps rolling along. Having played 40 games so far this season, the Boston Bruins are now in the midst of their bye week 2nd in the Atlantic Division (53 points)– ten points behind the Eastern Conference leading Tampa Bay Lightning.

Plenty of teams have been pleasant surprises, namely, the Vegas Golden Knights and the New Jersey Devils through the first half of the season. To say the Golden Knights are merely on a hot start is a major understatement– there’s a legitimate chance Vegas will not only make the playoffs, but compete with the Lightning and Winnipeg Jets in what’s shaping up to be a competitive three-way battle for the 2017-18 President’s Trophy.

Regardless, Boston has not been a pleasant surprise. No.

If you’ve been tracking Don Sweeney‘s every move since becoming general manager in 2015, then you aren’t surprised at all to see that this year’s Bruins squad is playing on another level and turning heads around the hockey world.

It’s a very methodic approach– one that takes its time while patience wears thin among fans that demand excellence every shift in the Hub– but the Boston Bruins are ready for a breakout performance in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs (barring a second half of the season collapse).

While many are busy trying to come up with a nickname for Boston’s fourth line of Tim Schaller, Sean Kuraly and Noel Acciari— I recommend either “The 50s Line” (since Schaller, Kuraly and Acciari wear No.’s 59, 52 and 55 respectively) or “The B52 Line” (an ode to the music group, sure, but also a nod to Kuraly’s stellar anchor as the center)– it’s a shame no one’s come up with anything for the legend that is the Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak line.

Usually it’s just “the Bergeron line”, but if you’ve seen the production from this line, you might just think back to the days of “The Uke Line”, “The Kraut Line” or “The Dynamite Line”– all of which were historic lines in Bruins franchise history.

Anyway, on with the show…

Through 40 games played this season, here’s a look at how every player on Boston’s roster should pan out for the remaining 42 games. Please remember my degree is in communication– not math– so any miscalculations are Microsoft Excel’s fault.

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Boston Bruins Projections Through 40 Games (42 Games Remaining)

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At this point in the season everything begins to look more realistic. Unless you’re still looking at Tommy Cross‘s projected stats. Again, that’s a product of forecasting a season for a player based on every career NHL game that player has played. Cross has yet to appear in an NHL game since the 2015-16 season; because of this, his numbers look more promising based on the formula alone than they actually probably would be, unless he knows something about his game we don’t.

Until a player like Cross (or other players with few career NHL games played) suits up in the 2017-18 season, that players numbers are reflective of a more “idealistic” season. In other words, it’s a pipe dream (until it actually happens).


The Bruins finally have a healthy lineup. Well, kind of.

Defenseman, Adam McQuaid, is still out after missing time due to a fractured right fibula. Upon his imminent return, who exactly should Bruce Cassidy pull out of the lineup, if anyone?

Matt Grzelcyk‘s emerged from the shadows of the last couple of seasons– in which he made his professional debut and NHL debut. He’s solidified himself as a top-6 defenseman, capable of earning his ice time and/or McQuaid’s job at less than half the price (at least until this offseason, when Grzelyck’s entry-level contract is set to expire).

Grzelyck, 24, is seven-years younger than McQuaid and could provide the same amount of offensive production or more down the road. By default, Grzelcyk’s offensive game is better than McQuaid’s this season.

Of course, there’s some things working in McQuaid’s favor in his ability to block shots, use his body and throw punches when “the code of hockey” needs to be enforced.

Though, again, there is a younger blue liner– albeit by a year and at $250,000 less– that could carry the weight of the tough guy on Boston’s defense. That guy is Kevan Miller, 30, who’s having what’s poised to equal or surpass his career year of 2015-16 in points (18), while teaching Grzelyck the ways of a bottom-pair defenseman.

Brandon Carlo has yet to score this season and is– by all considerations– in a sophomore slump. But he is only 21-years-old and destined to solidify as a top-4 defenseman in his career. He’s no Charlie McAvoy, but it wouldn’t make sense to punish a young player for showing his youth in his errors that he’s made at times through the year.

Before you know it, McQuaid could be the next Paul Postma on the Bruins as another healthy scratch on a night-to-night basis– though providing much needed depth when one of the regular guys goes down with an injury.

The Bruins have a plus-29 goal differential after 40 games this season, which is seven more than they had at the end of last season.

It seems promising that Boston will continue to only get better offensively down the stretch with David Pastrnak seeking to best his career high in assists while amassing almost 70 points on the season. That’s just 1/3 of the Bergeron line.

Brad Marchand should easily reach the 70-point plateau for not only the second time in his career– but the second year in a row– as Patrice Bergeron continues to swing the momentum around in his scoring projections (expected to surpass at least 60 points this season).

Rookies Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen will each have respectable numbers that should flirt with the 50-point plateau. DeBrusk may only end up with 20-26-46 totals, but Heinen should continue to charge down the stretch reaching 22-43–65 totals in his own spectacular rookie season.

It’s not Earth-shattering by any means, but it is highly underrated. Especially with a guy like David Backes on the same line.

Backes, in his own right, is bringing some extra bang for his buck this season. Having missed almost half of the season with diverticulitis and recovering from the surgical removal of part of his colon, Backes is lighter and better than ever.

And one more thing for the haters…

Tuukka Rask is back. This could be a Vezina Trophy winning season, if not more, for the Finnish goaltender.

Numbers Game: Boston Through 20 (2017-18)

The 2017-2018 regular season is rolling along as American Thanksgiving is once again upon us and everyone’s freaking out about some of the teams that are in playoff position (like Vegas) or not (like NYR) and all that stuff about “teams that are in the playoff picture by Thanksgiving traditionally make the playoffs based on stats”.

I’m as much of a stats fan as the next guy, but in today’s NHL, parity is unpredictable. There are some false positives in the playoff picture right now as there are equally some teams that we all thought would be dominating the Pacific Division currently– I’m looking at you, Edmonton Oilers.

Alas, the Boston Bruins find themselves in fourth place in the Atlantic Division as they are about to chow down on some turkey, quinoa and whatever else I’m sure Zdeno Chara is probably cooking up for them because if you haven’t already heard, his diet is better than Tom Brady’s*.

*I don’t actually stand by this claim, Mr. Brady. You’re still the GOAT.

Boston is one point away from tying the Detroit Red Wings in points, but would leap over them for sole position of third place in the division if the B’s tied Detroit, given the Bruins have a game-in-hand on the Red Wings currently. Likewise, if Boston added two points outright, they’d surpass Detroit (because that’s how the whole “2 points for a win, 1 point for an overtime/shootout loss and no points for a regulation loss” thing works).

Please remember that my degree is in communication– not math– so any miscalculations are Microsoft Excel’s fault.

Without further ado and to give you something to talk about at the dinner table while you stuff your face with sweet potatoes, here’s a look at how every player on the Bruins should pan out as the team has now played 20 games this season.

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Boston Bruins Projections Through 20 Games (62 Games Remaining)

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Keep in mind, young guys like Anders Bjork, Matt Grzelcyk and others will even out in some of their individual stats with more games under their feet. Bjork probably won’t have 15 points on the power play, but that’s just what the formula in Microsoft Excel shows until he gets another 10 or 20 games in his system.

Guys like Grzelcyk and Rob O’Gara, while they’ve played games over a couple of seasons, are like Bjork according to the formula in that their total number of career games means just about the same as one season (or more accurately, 16 games so far) of Bjork. And obviously Tommy Cross is Tommy Cross.

Like Jordan Szwarz, Cross doesn’t have a huge sample of career games played and there haven’t been plenty of appearances since his last game at the NHL level (though Szwarz actually filled in for nine games while David Krejci, Ryan Spooner and David Backes were out with injuries).

Thankfully Spooner is back and can start racking up assists, while Krejci can settle in with Jake DeBrusk pulling his weight as a rookie.

Hopefully Peter Cehlarik continues to be making claim for a longer stay with the big league club instead of going back to the Providence Bruins like he did last season after making his NHL debut, because his play with and without the puck has certainly been impressive– aside from the clear chemistry he has with David Krejci.

Patrice Bergeron has improved since his lower body injury forced him out of the lineup, but he’s still looking at an “off” year for the next 62 games ahead. That’s right, a bad year for Bergeron is still worth 60 points in scoring.

Whenever Brad Marchand returns from the IR, he should be just fine.

And it should be rather transparent, but David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy are incredible stars on this team. So there’s that.

Finally, there’s no goaltending controversy with the black and gold. Tuukka Rask should rebound, but you’d be crazy not to ride the back of Anton Khudobin while he’s been on fire lately.

Rask is best kept between 45 and 58 games in a season, so if Khudobin can keep up his current play for another 10 games or so before returning to his usual backup status, that should buy Rask plenty of time to recover from overworking the last three seasons (or more, probably more). Play Khudobin until he burns out, but hope he can take off almost 30 games from Rask’s workload compared to the last couple of seasons.


If you’re interested, here’s a look at how the Bruins should have been doing entering the 2017-2018 regular season.

Down the Frozen River Podcast #80- Depth and Taxes

Nick and Connor recap the 2017 SAP NHL Global Series, talk transactions and go long about the Boston Bruins. Additionally, the guys discussed the Radko Gudas incident and never actually say how much time he should be sitting out for his shenanigans.

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

Down the Frozen River Podcast #79- Zone Time 101

Nick, Connor and Cap’n recap the Matt Duchene trade and pick a winnner(s). The crew also discussed how good the Tampa Bay Lightning are and how the Montreal Canadiens haven’t been smart with asset management in recent years and where they could go from here.

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

Numbers Game: Boston Bruins 2017-2018 Projected Stats

Let’s ignore the first two games of the season that the Boston Bruins have already played and reset the clock to zero, because here’s a look at what is (was?) to be expected heading into this season for every player on the Bruins*.

*With some exceptions of course.

Unknown-7After being eliminated by the Ottawa Senators in the First Round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Boston is looking for a deeper playoff run on the wings of the experience gained from those six extra games in April for David Pastrnak and the rest of their young crew.

Gut feeling dictates that Pastrnak and Brad Marchand will be as much of an offensive force as they were last season for Boston heading into this season, but what does the forecasting function in Microsoft Excel have to say about any of those bold predictions from this offseason on our podcast or otherwise?

As is tradition, my Bruins projections are presented below based on how every player on the roster has performed in their career leading up to this season. Players that have yet to play a game a regular season NHL game are not included in this first round of projections (denoted with “N/A” in most columns), but their stats will be included and accounted for about a quarter of the way through the regular season (roughly 20 games).

Yes, Charlie McAvoy played in the playoffs last season, but the fact of the matter is there is no true way to measure how his regular season will go based off of six career playoff games, wherein the pace of the game and many other variables are inherently different from regular season game-flow.

Or just give me some more time to come up with an excuse a more viable solution for projecting rookie’s stats prior to them taking the ice for the first time at the NHL level.

Sample size must always be kept in mind when glancing over these projections. A player who’s never played more than three career games (like Tommy Cross, for example) will reflect a tremendous value in projected assists if they’ve recorded even just one assist (again, like Providence Bruins all-time leader in games played, Tommy Cross) in those three games. This will fluctuate pending more appearances and/or throughout the season on its own (usually in the downward trend, unless said AHL player cracks the NHL roster full-time).

But for all the jokes, Tommy Cross is an excellent depth-defenseman/top-pair defenseman in the AHL to have. Shouts to him.

Additionally, please remember that my degree is in communication, not math, so I am by no means a wizard with numbers in Microsoft Excel and I’m sure my Corsi is terrible. Plus, you’re probably not a front office member or anyone who might have some credibility for statistical reasoning and advanced stats analysis in hockey, so take everything with a grain of salt before you complain that math is ruining “your” sport.

Unless you are some Corsi-god/NHL front office member and you’ve stumbled upon this, in which case, let’s start over. Hello, please ignore the last paragraph, my name is Nick and I’d like a job. Thanks.


On offense, the usual suspects for the Boston Bruins will remain the core components that push the team forward night-in and night-out. Patrice Bergeron should amass another 60-plus point season after having a “down year” last season with only 53 points in 2016-2017.

Pastrnak will lead the Bruins in points according to the latest models with 31-33-64 totals.

While Brad Marchand’s expected 31-29-60 totals this season rank fourth on the team’s projected scoring leaders behind Pastrnak (64), David Krejci (63) and Bergeron (62), it’s easy to imagine Marchand improving from his career best 39 goals, 46 assists (85 points) season last season and shattering his season-entering projections.

Gut Feeling 2.0 seems to point in the direction of Marchand leading in points, based off of last season, and Pastrnak leading in goals (as is shown in these numbers with Pastrnak and Marchand tied for the lead on the Bruins roster with 31 projected goals each this season).

Matt Beleskey and Frank Vatrano should each right their ships this season coming off of not-so-easy to return from leg injuries last season. Beleskey’s expected 14-16-30 totals would rank as his 3rd best season in his NHL career– with room to gain more ground– since appearing in two games with the Anaheim Ducks in 2008-2009.

Meanwhile, Vatrano (29 points projected in 2017-18), barring another injury, should finally partake in a full-season and become the glue-guy on the third line that he’s been expected to become after being a goal-a-game AHL player in his short career with Providence.

The Boston blue line looks retooled, restocked and ready to go.

Gone are John-Michael Liles, Colin Miller and Joe Morrow; in are the likes of Charlie McAvoy and Paul Postma. Liles has moved on to become a TV analyst for Altitude and Colorado Avalanche broadcasts while still technically an unrestricted free agent. Colin Miller was claimed by the Vegas Golden Knights at the 2017 Expansion Draft and Morrow signed with the rival Montreal Canadiens this offseason after not being tendered a qualifying offer.

McAvoy’s rookie season numbers will come fruition in the next 20 games or so, please give some time for an update on his projections, but until then, know this– he’s the real deal.

Nobody can possibly be the next Bobby Orr for Boston, since there’s only one Bobby Orr after all, but McAvoy likes to move the puck like Orr once did for the Bruins in the late 1960s and 1970s. And McAvoy’s got a tough element to his game too, like legendary Bruins defenseman, Eddie Shore, McAvoy can hit.

Postma is mainly an afterthought, but provides much needed depth for the long run.

Brandon Carlo looks to make an impact in his sophomore season and should continue to absorb any and all knowledge from 40-year-old captain, Zdeno Chara, as a shut-down pair. Yes, Chara is still a good defenseman. He’ll max out around 40 points this season with Carlo carrying more weight and the Bruins offense doing their part in keeping the puck out of the defensive zone to begin with.

Meanwhile, Torey Krug should an average year with 10 goals and 35 assists (45 points). Even an average year for Krug is still a better year than most defensemen.

And in other news, Tuukka Rask is still the number one goaltender for obvious reasons. He’s good.

More on Boston’s goalies as a whole in later posts throughout the season.

For now, Bruce Cassidy‘s Bruins are ready to fly– mostly because of Cassidy’s coaching style that emphasizes going full throttle all the time and not because bears have sprouted wings or anything.

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Down the Frozen River Podcast #74- Participation Trophies After One Game (Part II)

Jaromir Jagr signed with the Calgary Flames this week, the regular season started (though the Pittsburgh Penguins might not have been told yet that the games matter now) and former players tend to be GMs in the NHL, the Original Trio confirms. Also, we gave participation trophies without even watching the rest of the season for the second year in a row.

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

Boston eyeing Wild defenseman Jonas Brodin

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The Boston Bruins and Minnesota Wild have been kicking the tires on a potential trade involving Boston’s 2017 1st round pick and Minnesota defenseman, Jonas Brodin, as first reported by CSNNE.

Brodin, 23, is a left shot defenseman, drafted 10th overall in 2011 (one spot after Dougie Hamilton) and is signed through 2020-2021 at an affordable $4,166,667 million AAV.

The Bruins could utilize the services of the young top-4 defenseman to ensure that they take their time to develop their plethora of prospects, while implementing young guns, Brandon Carlo and Charlie McAvoy full time on the blue line next season.

With free agency potentially looming for pending UFA John-Michael Liles and RFA Joe Morrow, the Bruins would be wise to make a move to acquire a top-4 defenseman, given the Vegas Golden Knights could be eyeing Colin Miller, Kevan Miller and/or Adam McQuaid as at least one of them is likely to be exposed and ripe for the picking in this year’s Expansion Draft.

A player like Brodin could fill the role of guiding Boston’s young defense through some of the early learning curves of their career and transition to the NHL, as well as balance the immense load of NHL minutes they are expecting to face.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is lacking a 1st round pick, thanks to the Martin Hanzal trade at this year’s trade deadline and would love to 1) boost their prospect pool and 2) unload Brodin from their roster.

While Brodin hasn’t panned out exactly as planned– he has 18-61-79 totals in 331 career games played– a change of scenery might just be exactly what he needs.

Or maybe he’ll be a smart investment as a tactically sound defenseman that’s not expected to put up points like Torey Krug, but rather keep the puck moving out of the defensive zone and strengthen the youth movement for Boston with 40-year-old captain Zdeno Chara entering a contract year (though Chara has indicated a desire to continue playing past next season in the Hub).

March 15 – Day 147 – The Flames are red hot

Only four games are on the schedule tonight, so let’s dive right in. The action starts at 7:30 p.m. with Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (NBCSN/TVAS), followed 90 minutes later by Boston at Calgary (SN). Detroit visits Colorado at 9:30 p.m. and St. Louis at Anaheim (NBCSN), tonight’s nightcap, drops the puck half an hour later. All times eastern.

If it was certain Mark Streit would be available for tonight’s game, I’d be much more inclined to feature the Battle for the Keystone State. But with the injury he sustained Monday night, I’m much more interested in the Bruins‘ visit to the Saddledome.

 

Winners of its past three contests, Boston enters tonight’s game with a 37-26-6 record good enough for third place in the Atlantic Division. The Bruins may not be dominant on either end of the ice, but they play a solid overall game. Specifically, I’m most impressed with a defensive effort that has yielded only 177 goals against, which ties for the 10th-fewest in the NHL.

Of course, that always starts with the goaltender, and Boston has a good one in 33-16-4 Tuukka Rask. Yet even the best goaltenders need a night off every once in a while, and that’s where 4-5-1 Anton Khudobin comes into play. He’s registered a .895 season save percentage and 2.76 GAA, the 56th and 42nd-best marks, respectively, among the 68 goalies with at least five appearances this year.

While neither stats are worth writing home to Russia about (I mean, we need to factor in the price of postage), he’ll be receiving considerable help from his blueline tonight. Led by Captain Zdeno Chara‘s 116 short blocks (narrowly beating out Adam McQuaid‘s contributions), the Bruins have allowed only 26.5 shots to reach their goalies’ crease, the second-best rate in the NHL.

That play is especially impressive in light of last season’s performance, which forced Bruins goaltenders to shrug off more than 30 shots-per-game. As rookie Brandon Carlo continues to grow, Boston‘s defense could become one of the stingiest in the league.

Speaking of stingy, that’s exactly what the Bruins‘ top-rated penalty kill is. Thanks in large part to McQuaid’s 32 shorthanded shot blocks, the Bruins escape opponents’ power plays unscathed 86.2% of the time.

Boston is also the proud home of a solid power play. While not as successful as their penalty kill, the Bruins do tie for 10th-best in the league with a power play that finds the back of the net 20.5% of the time. That attack is twin-led by first-unit members Torey Krug and David Pastrnak, both of whom have 20 power play points. Pastrnak also shares the extra-man goal-scoring lead, but this time with Brad Marchand. Both of them have buried the puck eight times on the power play.

In a surprising turn of events since December and January, defense has become the name of the game for the 39-26-4 Flames, who currently occupy second place in the Pacific Division and are easily the hottest team in the league (pun intended). Winners of their past 10 games, they’ve allowed only 183 goals against so far this season, the 13th-fewest in the NHL.

For the second season in a row, 21-13-3 Brian Elliott has righted the ship for another playoff-hopeful club. Although his .91 season save percentage isn’t the best on the team (that belongs to Chad Johnson and his .913), his 2.51 GAA is, and those rank (t)33rd and (t)17th-best in the league, respectively, among the 51 goalies with at least 18 appearances.

Those numbers aren’t exactly impressive, but they don’t have to be when Elliott plays behind one of the better defensed in the league. Allowing only 28.7 shots to reach his crease per game, Calgary ranks eighth-best in the NHL. That success is due in large part to Mark Giordano, whose 154 shot blocks not only pace the Flames, but are sixth-most in the NHL.

Thanks to Johnson’s incredible night in net (he saved 35-of-36 – 97.2%!), the Flames were able to stave off the Bruins‘ offense for a 2-1 victory when they made their annual visit to Boston on November 25.

Some players to keep an eye on this evening include Boston‘s Marchand (35 goals [tied for most in the NHL] for 74 points [tied for third-most in the league]) and Calgary‘s Giordano (+17 on 154 blocks [both lead the team]).

Calgary is narrowly favored to win tonight’s game by Vegas with a -105 line. I can certainly see why the oddsmakers are concerned, but I also know the Flames have beaten some solid teams over this winning streak. I like the Bruins to win tonight, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Calgary can keep the magic going again this evening.

Hockey Birthday

  • Punch Imlach (1918-1987) – It goes without saying, but a coaching career that features four Stanley Cups, including three in a row from 1962-’64, is probably a good one. Imlach did just that with the Maple Leafs, the team he coached for 12 of his 14 seasons. He completed his career in the 1979-’80 season with a 402-337-150 record.
  • Craig Ludwig (1961-) – Montréal selected this defenseman 61st-overall in the 1980 NHL Entry Draft, and that’s where he played the first eight years of his career and won his first Stanley Cup. Following a year with the Islanders, he joined the (North) Stars organization in 1991-’92, with whom he played the last eight years of his career  – and won his second Stanley Cup.
  • Darcy Tucker (1975-) – Another Montréal pick, this right wing was selected in the sixth round of the 1993 NHL Entry Draft. Although drafted by the Canadiens, he actually spent most of his 14-year career with Toronto, where he scored 148 of his 215 career goals.
  • James Reimer (1988-) – Speaking of the Maple Leafs, they selected this goaltender 99th-overall in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft. He spent six seasons in Toronto before being traded to the Sharks at the deadline last year. He now plays in Florida, where he’s earned a 12-12-5 record.

Although the Wild scored two goals in the third period, it wasn’t enough to get past the Capitals in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day. Washington defended the Verizon Center to a 4-2 victory.

Although both clubs combined for 29 shots in the first period, this game almost reached the first intermission scoreless. The operative word there is almost, as Nate Schmidt (Second Star of the Game Alex Ovechkin and First Star Nicklas Backstrom) scored only his second goal of the season with a dozen seconds remaining on the clock to give Washington a one-goal lead.

February 19. 11 games ago. That was the last time Ovechkin scored before tonight’s tally. Assisted by John Carlson and Backstrom, he buried a wrist shot with 5:08 remaining in the second period to double the Caps‘ lead and end his scoreless skid. The game-winner belongs to Evgeny Kuznetsov (Backstrom and Carlson) on a power play wrister 2:16 later that set the score at 3-0.

Whatever Bruce Boudreau said in the dressing room during intermission, it seems Matt Dumba (Mikael Granlund) took it to heart, as he buried a backhanded shot 37 seconds after play resumed to get the Wild on the board. Eric Staal (Mikko Koivu and Ryan Suter) followed that four minutes later with a power play wrister to pull Minnesota within a goal, but they couldn’t find another tally. Jay Beagle (Dmitry Orlov) made the Wild‘s comeback even more difficult by burying a wrister with 5:41 remaining in the game, setting the 4-2 final score.

Third Star Braden Holtby earned the victory after saving 30-of-32 shots faced (93.75%), leaving the loss to Devan Dubnyk, who saved 36-of-40 (90%).

While losing first place in the division and conference is obviously the bigger issue for the Wild, they are also responsible for allowing the 75-53-21 home teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series to have a one-point lead over the visitors.

March 6- Day 138- Battle Br[uin] in Ottawa

Four games are on the docket for Monday night and if you’re a fan of split screen viewing, then this night is for you. The puck drops in three cities at 7:30 p.m. with the fourth game getting underway at 8 p.m. If you’re a remote, brace yourself for some serious channel flipping.

The action starts simultaneously at 7:30 p.m. with the New York Rangers at the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators and Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals (NBCSN/CSN-DC). Half an hour later, things kick off at MTS Centre in Winnipeg, Manitoba for the San Jose Sharks and the Winnipeg Jets. All times eastern.

Short list:

  • Boston at Ottawa: With a win in regulation the Bruins can tie the Senators for 2nd place in the Atlantic Division in perhaps the closest battle for a playoff spot in the shootout era of the NHL. Also, I’ll be working, so there’s that.
  • Dallas at Washington: The visiting Capitals beat the Stars 4-3 in overtime on January 21st in an entertaining matchup. Dallas makes their annual visit to Washington this time around.

For the second day in a row, I’m in charge of today’s DTFR Game of the Day Matchup and as such, I can pick whoever I want without repercussion since Connor isn’t coming back until Tuesday (that’s tomorrow, for those of you that didn’t already know).

So let’s take a trip to Kanata, Ontario just outside of Canada’s capital city where the Boston Bruins are in town to take on the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre.

Unknown-7The visiting Bruins are 4-1-0 in their last five games having outscored their opponents 18-9 in that span. Since naming Bruce Cassidy as their interim head coach on February 7th, Boston is 8-2-0. Currently third in the Atlantic Division with 74 points on the season, the Bruins are 34-25-6 after 65 games played.

Boston has had a bit of a turnaround to say the least since relieving Claude Julien from his duties as head coach. Whether or not that was the spark that ignited the team as of late remains to be seen over the course of the next month, however, the Bruins have improved in several areas of the ice.

Under Cassidy’s reign, the Bruins have generated a lot of offense, improving their power play to a 19.8% completion rate (good enough for 13th in the league) while improving their goal differential to a +10. The B’s penalty kill (86.0%), by the way, is 2nd best in the league behind the Florida Panthers (86.1%).

Veteran winger Brad Marchand (29-38-67 totals in 65 GP) is tied for 4th in league scoring with San Jose’s Brent Burns. Marchand’s name, as well as Burns and others, are certainly worthy of consideration for Hart Trophy talk.

David Pastrnak is tied for 26th in the league alongside Columbus Blue Jackets forward Cam Atkinson. Pastrnak is in the midst of a breakout season in just his third year in the league and has 26 goals and 28 assists, good enough for 54 points in 58 games played this season.

On defense, the Bruins have relied on the likes of Zdeno Chara, Brandon Carlo, Torey Krug and the gang for added depth scoring and shutdown play from time to time. Krug is two points shy (6-36-42 totals in 2016-2017) from tying a career high in points set last season (4-40-44 totals in 2015-2016). For the record, Krug has appeared in all 65 games so far this season, compared to 81 games last season.

Bruins goaltender, Tuukka Rask is tied for 5th in wins with Martin Jones. Both goalies have 30 wins in 51 and 52 games played, respectively. Rask has a .913 SV% in that time and a 2.26 goal against average, good enough for 8th in the league among active goalies with 25 or more games played.

Unknown-6The hometown Ottawa Senators roll into Monday night 3-2-0 in their last five games having been outscored 12-8 by their opponents in that span. The Sens are currently 2nd place in the Atlantic Division after 63 games played with a 35-22-6 record and 76 points on the season.

Their power play ranks 24th in the league with a success rate of 16.8% and their penalty kill is operating at 11th in the league, having successfully killed off 82.1% of penalties against this season.

Unlike their opponent, Ottawa is not much of an offensive powerhouse as they’ve only amassed a +1 goal differential, having scored 166 goals for and let in 165 goals against. Additionally, the Senators are 6-4-0 in their last ten games, showing some signs of slowing down, thanks in part, due to injuries.

Defenseman Erik Karlsson is tied for 17th in scoring with 11 goals and 45 assists for 56 points. The only other Senator in the top-50 is right winger Mark Stone (tied for 37th overall) with 48 points on the season.

Ottawa’s goaltending duo of Craig Anderson (18-8-1 in 27 games played) and Mike Condon (17-11-5 in 35 games played with PIT and OTT) has proven to be good enough to keep the Senators in the quest for the top of the Atlantic Division. Anderson’s 2.25 GAA is 7th among goalies with 25 or more games played this year, while his .930 SV% ranks 4th, in the midst of his incredible run in the face of his wife, Nicholle’s courageous battle with cancer.

Condon, by the way is tied for 15th in goals against average with a 2.54 and tied for 26th in save percentage with a.911 among goalies who have played at least 25 games this season.

The addition of Alex Burrows from the Vancouver Canucks prior to the trade deadline will anger most Bruins fans who recall Burrows as the infamous biter of Patrice Bergeron’s finger in Game 1 of the 2011 Stanley Cup Final. Besides the obvious battle in the standings, an interesting aside for this game will be how receptive Boston is to having to see Burrows more often in their own division.

Ottawa defeated Boston, 3-1, on November 24, 2016 on home ice. Monday night is just the 2nd of four meetings this season between the clubs. Whatever the outcome tonight, the Senators will have to face the Bruins in Boston on the 21st of this month and on April 6th.

In light of their recent run, the Bruins should be a much more competitive team against the Senators this time around. Then again, Ottawa is a team that played a huge role in keeping Boston out of the playoffs in 2015 and could make life nearly as difficult this season. Despite everything, Boston is retooled and ready to go this time around.

Again, ignore whatever Vegas is saying– your pal, Nick, is here to tell you who will win. I’m picking Boston in a close one that’ll come down to a “stand on his head” performance from Rask and a strong game from one of Boston’s leading scorers (either Marchand or Pastrnak, flip a coin– I’m just covering my bases here). Then again, Ryan Spooner is an Ottawa native and always seems to play well for the Bruins in front of his friends and family…

Hockey Birthday

Daniel Winnik (3/6/1985-)– Winnik seems as though he’s been everywhere in the league, although there is one team that’s certain to be keeping an eye on him as a low cost, high reward variety player this June– the Vegas Golden Knights. Since he is the head of his class of current and former NHL players born on March 6th, I decided to give him this special little feature.

The gritty glue guy has played in 699 career NHL games to date, amassing 72 goals and 150 assists for 222 points. Winnik’s career began in the 2007-2008 season with the team formerly known as the Phoenix Coyotes (now Arizona Coyotes) where he had 11-15-26 totals in 79 games played. Over the years, Winnik has played for the Coyotes, Colorado Avalanche, San Jose Sharks, Anaheim Ducks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Pittsburgh Penguins and currently, the Washington Capitals.

Joe Matte (1893-1961), George Redding (1903-1974), Andy Aitkenhead (1904- 1968), Buzz Boll (1911-1990), Paul Gauthier (1915-), Bill Shill (1923-1998), Reg Sinclair (1925-2013), Pete Goegan (1934-2008), Vic Venasky (1951-), Fred Arthur (1961-), Darrell May (1962-), Dan Bourbonnais (1962-), Peter Allen (1970-), Patrick Labrecque (1971-), Chris Taylor (1972-), Lubomir Vaic (1977-), Allan Rourke (1980-), Steve Wagner (1984-), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (1985-), Chris Mueller (1986-), Mario Bliznak (1987-), Rhett Rakhshani (1988-), Eric Wellwood (1990-), Kevin Gravel (1992-), Louis Domingue (1992-), Nicklas Jensen (1993-)


Sunday’s DTFR Game of the Day Matchup featured the San Jose Sharks at the Minnesota Wild and first place was on the line for one team at Xcel Energy Center. A win would move the Wild past the Chicago Blackhawks for first place in the Central Division and a win is just what Minnesota got.

Unknown-2Eric Staal’s two-goal effort and Devan Dubnyk’s 20 saves on 21 shots against led the Wild to a 3-1 victory over San Jose on Sunday. Minnesota’s win snapped the Sharks’s three game winning streak and handed a loss to Martin Jones who made 25 saves on 28 shots faced.

Zach Parise returned to the lineup after missing three games due to the mumps and came in clutch on the power play, scoring a goal at 11:06 of the 1st period to kickstart the Wild with a 1-0 lead on home ice. Parise’s power play goal was Minnesota’s 16th goal on the power play in the last 16 games. Jason Pominville (29) and Ryan Suter (26) collected the assists on Parise’s 15th goal of the season.

Staal made it 2-0 with his 18th goal of the year, assisted by Matt Dumba (18) at 15:24 of the 1st period. Melker Karlsson put the Sharks on the board with a redirection and cut the lead in half prior to the first intermission, scoring his 9th goal of the year with less than two minutes to go in the opening period. Michael Haley (9) and Justin Braun (7) were credited with the assists on Karlsson’s goal.

Finally, Staal put the game away with his 19th of goal of the year, which gave the Wild a 3-1 lead at 18:11 of the 3rd period. Recent acquisition, Martin Hanzal (13) picked up the only assist on Staal’s second goal of the night.

Boston Through 60 (2016-2017)

Raise your hand if you’ve been staying up late for the last week to watch Bruins games without having one sip of coffee to do so. Anyone? No? Just me. Okay then.

Anyway, here’s a look at the way things stand after 60 games (through Wednesday night’s action in Anaheim) for the Boston Bruins.

Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak are in the fight of their lives to lay claim to the status as the best goal scorer for the Bruins this season. Marchand is on track to edge Pastrnak in the scoring race this season with Boston with 72 points to Pastrnak’s 64. However, Pastrnak is apt to leading Marchand in goals scored at season’s end, as shown below.

Additionally, the line of Patrice Bergeron, Marchand and David Backes has shown signs of being like the days of Bergeron, Marchand and Mark Recchi at times. More statistical evaluation, as well as the eye test, will yield further analysis, but there’s something promising about the likes of Bergeron and Marchand working with the power forward who’s not afraid to go to the net (Backes) in the chemistry that seems natural.

David Krejci and Pastrnak have appeared to have found their own peanut butter and jelly in 21-year-old rookie Peter Cehlarik. Simply put, I wish we could get a full season of the 83-46-88 line.

Other bright spots include career years for Frank Vatrano and Torey Krug, as well as a tremendous offensive output for the usually goal scoring inept, Adam McQuaid— everything is relative, keep in mind.

On pace for three goals, McQuaid is in the midst of perhaps his most all around season as the guy who’s lovable in the locker room, will beat you up on the ice and knows and plays his role well enough to contribute when he can in a full 60 minute effort.

The continued transition from Claude Julien to Bruce Cassidy will show more results in the next 20 games, but as shown in the data so far, the Cassidy era Bruins will be better off at offensive production and efficiency.

After deciding on a backup (though Don Sweeney has indicated an interest in acquiring a backup at the trade deadline on March 1st, if available), the Bruins are rolling with Anton Khudobin playing behind Tuukka Rask.

Rask might end up appearing in 69 games this season, which, granted is better than 70+ games, is still not ideal for balancing work and play (or more appropriately, rest). He is still on pace for a GAA of 2.12 and a save percentage of .923. Both of which are impressive in light of the last couple of seasons.

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Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 60 of 82

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For comparison, here’s how the Bruins were projected to do at Game 0 of 82 (prior to the start of the 2016-2017 regular season):

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