Down the Frozen River

Tag: Boston Bruins

Realistic Predictions for the 2016-2017 Season

By: Nick Lanciani

Anaheim Ducks

The Anaheim Ducks added Jared Boll in the offseason to help bolster Team USA’s heart and grit rating at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey. Oh wait. Anaheim also brought back Randy Carlyle as head coach.

So basically it’ll be Throwback Thursday everyday this season for the Ducks, since it’ll be ten years since their 2007 Stanley Cup championship with Carlyle and crew. Why not bring back the maroon and jade uniforms while we’re at it?

Arizona Coyotes

Youth is not just prevalent on the Arizona Coyotes roster this season, but in their front office as well, as 27-year-old, John Chayka, was hired as the youngest GM in NHL history.

Max Domi and Anthony Duclair do all they can to convince Shane Doan to become the next Jaromir Jagr and maybe then we can start talking about a potential Cup run for the Coyotes. A plethora of defensemen fight for six roster spots and are narrowed down throughout the season, Hunger Games style.

Boston Bruins

Big and Bad are Backes. Wait, that’s not it. The Boston Bruins added David Backes, Riley Nash and Dominic Moore to their group of forwards this offseason all while seeming to forget that they still need another top-4 defenseman (let alone an entire defense).

Like most years of Boston sports (okay, with the exception of the last fifteen years), the Bruins will probably narrowly miss the playoffs again, much to the dismay of their hardcore fan base that still goes to every game like it’s their job. Or am I confusing them with the guys on the roster? At least 63 + 37 = 100.

Buffalo Sabres

So the Buffalo Sabres look to do things this year. That’s a thing, I’m pretty sure. Major loss? Chad Johnson left the team via free agency and went to Calgary. Major gains?

They brought in Kyle Okposo and everything else remained pretty much the same, so they should probably be on the outside looking in again, unless they become the new Ottawa Senators (forged by youth and a backup goalie that takes over from February through their early first round playoff exit in April).

All kidding aside, the Sabres remain hopeful. Meanwhile, Rasmus Ristolainen finally got paid (at a discount, none the less— Flo from Progressive would be happy).

Calgary Flames

What did the Calgary Flames do this offseason? They got some goaltending. Brian Elliott was acquired via a trade with St. Louis and Chad Johnson came over from Buffalo in free agency, so that’s two new goalies for a total of about half as many goalies that the Philadelphia Flyers have played in the last twenty years (though Calgary is starting to catch up).

Johnny Gaudreau is still unsigned, so that could be problematic, since he’s like, Calgary’s entire offense. At least, that’s what the fake Kanye West account told me— just kidding, he finally signed the other day. Given the state of the Western Conference, it’s safe to say they won’t be flaming their competition in the standings.

Carolina Hurricanes

Biggest additions: Lee Stempniak, Viktor Stalberg and Teuvo Teravainen (so basically just Teravainen, if you’re playing along with the rebuild at home). Matt Tennyson was also brought in on the blue line via free agency from San Jose, so there’s that.

Hurricanes fans, take solace in the fact that the Columbus Blue Jackets exist in your division, because at least Carolina won’t finish last with an improved New Jersey Devils team (minus their defense) looking to jump ahead of the Hurricanes in the standings.

Chicago Blackhawks

2013, 2015— shoot, this year’s Stanley Cup Final is in an odd numbered year, isn’t it? Well, forget all of the season predictions, congrats to the Chicago Blackhawks. They’ll probably just insert some prospect alongside Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook or someone and be fine.

I mean, that’s been the formula since 2010 anyway. Win the Cup, trade a bunch of people because of the salary cap over the next offseason or two, win the Cup again and do it all over again. The only problem is, the Blackhawks have got the toughest division, so they’ll probably still make the playoffs, at least.

Colorado Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche added two Bourques to their team (Gabriel Bourque and Rene Bourque) so they’re obviously hoping to double their efforts of their 2001 Stanley Cup championship with legendary defenseman Ray Bourque. What’s that? They’re not related? Nice try Joe Sakic.

While the Av’s were perfect in the preseason, sadly none of it counted and they’ll start 0-0-0 just like everybody else. New head coach, Jared Bednar, won’t be dismantling any stanchions this year, so that’s good news, glass between the benches at Pepsi Center.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Zach Werenski made the team, so now they’ll have a defense. Oh, sorry, didn’t you there Ryan Murray, Seth Jones and Jack Johnson. But all kidding aside, these guys just need to stay healthy— I’m looking at you Sergei Bobrovsky.

Their group of forwards kind of have it going on. But sadly, this isn’t the year for the Columbus Blue Jackets, unlike the rest of the teams in Ohio it seems. Also, how it is possible for Werenski, a player from Michigan University, to not get run out of Ohio? I’ll wait.

Dallas Stars

The Dallas Stars have the same goaltending tandem of Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi, the same core group of forwards primarily in Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn and an improved defense with the loss of Kris Russell.

Somehow every year, this band of veterans impresses the hockey world by combatting speed and skill with heart and grit (minus some of the grit). But just like last year, they probably still won’t figure it out in the playoffs between their two goaltenders and fail miserably (in the eyes of Stars fans).

Detroit Red Wings

The Detroit Red Wings added Steve Ott (grit), Thomas Vanek (heart) and Frans Nielsen (actually, kind of good), this offseason to their group of forwards that doesn’t include Pavel Datsyuk for the first time in like, forever.

Datsyuk was traded to Arizona at the draft after he announced his retirement from the NHL to go play in the KHL back home before ultimately wrapping up his professional hockey career. And with that, so ends the Red Wings playoff appearance streak this season. But at least Petr Mrazek will be their number one goalie, right?

Edmonton Oilers

Rogers Place looks pretty cool. Milan Lucic Bruinsinizes the team. Peter Chiarelli traded Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson. And that is all. Just kidding, Chiarelli also traded Nail Yakupov to the St. Louis Blues for practically nothing (so just like the Hall trade).

Connor McDavid was named captain and the team got worse. Kris Russell was added to the defense and Eric Gryba was not re-signed, then PTO’ed, then signed to a new deal with Edmonton, then probably placed on waivers. Sounds like things are business as usual for the Oilers.

Florida Panthers

James Reimer signed as the backup goaltender to Roberto Luongo for the Florida Panthers this offseason, so if you’re a fan of the 2013 Toronto Maple Leafs or 2011 Vancouver Canucks, maybe Florida is your team (until games actually matter in the playoffs).

Jason Demers and Keith Yandle were two major additions to the Panthers blue line, while they managed to finagle Jared McCann out of Vancouver in exchange for Erik Gudbranson. So basically, the Panthers are poised to dominate the Atlantic Division once again in the regular season. Can I get a Jaromir Jagr for the Hart Trophy to with it?

Los Angeles Kings

The Los Angeles Kings most recently added Devin Setoguchi to their batch of forwards, so that summarizes everything about their offseason. Props to Setoguchi for making a comeback in the NHL. Shouts to the Kings for having a cool arena by the way. I stopped by there in August.

Drew Doughty, Jonathan Quick and Anze Kopitar all won awards last season, so that should have some indication of how they’ll do this season. They’ll probably make the Western Conference Final and have to play the Chicago Blackhawks again, won’t they?

Minnesota Wild

The Minnesota Wild added Eric Staal to their roster this offseason and most recently (and more important than Staal), Teemu Pulkkinen.

Chris Stewart returned to the Wild organization after a trip around the league (or so it seemed) and everything else pretty much remained the same.

So if you’re a Minnesota fan, first, good luck surviving the winter (as usual). Second, nobody knows how the Vikings are doing it, but they’re doing it. And third, the Wild aren’t going to be that great this season, so pick one of the first two options to bandwagon, if you would please.

Montreal Canadiens

The Montreal Canadiens traded P.K. Subban. That is all.

But seriously, how could you, Montreal? Other than that, Alexander Radulov, Andrew Shaw and Shea Weber are all part of the team now, while Carey Price will miss the first game with the flu and Mike Condon got claimed off waivers by Pittsburgh. Looks like the team’s all yours, Al Montoya.

Nashville Predators

The Nashville Predators acquired P.K. Subban this offseason. What were the Montreal Canadiens thinking?

The Preds are letting their forwards develop and made their defense significantly better by getting rid of Shea Weber for Subban. Now if only Pekka Rinne would return to vintage Pekka Rinne form, then this could the year for Nashville. Then again, they’re in the same division as Chicago in an odd numbered playoff year, so…

New Jersey Devils

The New Jersey Devils restructured their forwards with the additions of Taylor Hall, Beau Bennett, Vernon Fiddler and P.A. Parenteau, but they still lack a defense (mostly). Brandon Gormley, Ben Lovejoy and Kyle Quincey are notable (somewhat) additions to the blue line in the Garden State.

Andy Greene remains one of the strangest trivia questions when someone asks you “who is the current captain of the Devils?” And Cory Schneider is still a highly underrated goaltender that somehow manages to survive without a team in front of him. But at least New Jersey is gearing up for the underdog of the year status.

New York Islanders

The New York Islanders added a lot of veteran presence to their noticeably Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum-less organization (yes, I took a shot at Barclays Center, there). Jason Chimera, Andrew Ladd and Dennis Seidenberg are now members of the Islanders and well, at least Seidenberg’s contract is only for a year.

As long as Jaroslav Halak plays like he did at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey (minus the final loss to Canada) and stays healthy, John Tavares and crew could lead this team further in the playoffs than in recent memory. Time may be winding down on their Cup contention clock, since Tavares is looking for an extension and well, everyone else on their roster is getting older.

New York Rangers

If winning the Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes counts for anything than the New York Rangers are winners. But they probably won’t be winners of much this season. Granted, they could make a playoff run (or miss it altogether), the same tune rings true, Henrik Lundqvist cannot be a team on his own.

Josh Jooris and Mika Zibanejad are big name additions to the offense. Okay, so they’re just names added to the roster. Nick Holden is new to the Blueshirts blue line and well, they’re still an aging defense. Best of luck to the youth in the New York, like Vesey, Jesper Fast, Oscar Lindberg, Kevin Hayes and others for getting to play more than one position this year on the same shift.

Ottawa Senators

Chris Kelly is back with the Ottawa Senators this season after playing 11 games last year with the Boston Bruins and recovering from a broken femur. Derick Brassard was acquired from the Rangers in exchange for Mika Zibanejad and Bobby Ryan switched his number from 6 to 9 (get your mind out of the gutter, Internet).

Otherwise, the Senators remain virtually the same. On the outside looking in, but probably raising a few eyebrows for their late season surge. They’re still waiting on their youth, which is at least working better than it is for their counterparts in Ontario, the Toronto Maple Leafs (who, although contrary to popular belief, might actually be better this year).

Philadelphia Flyers

The Philadelphia Flyers already appear to be in midseason form, what with Radko Gudas‘s six-game suspension and their apparent preference for Steve Mason as their number one goalie, as usual.

Boyd Gordon and Dale Weise are additions (though, can you really call them that?) and Travis Konecny and Ivan Provorov made the team from training camp (and the last couple of years of drafting), so the Flyers appear to be a middle of the pack team again this year.

Additionally, they’ll face off with the Pittsburgh Penguins in this season’s Coors Light NHL Stadium Series game at Heinz Field on February 25, 2017 as part of the league’s 50th season celebration of the 1967 expansion. So yeah, that’s all I got for Philadelphia.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins have virtually the same team from Game 6 of the 2016 Stanley Cup Final and look to defend their championship title without Sidney Crosby for at least game one of an 82 game regular season schedule.

New goaltender, Mike Condon, could make things interesting when comes time to decide between Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray before the 2017 expansion draft, since he could likely become Murray’s backup.

San Jose Sharks

Just like the Penguins, the San Jose Sharks roster remains virtually untouched since their loss in Game 6 of the 2016 Stanley Cup Final, which kind of makes you wonder, did anyone remember that there was an offseason?

Matt Tennyson jettisoned to Carolina (I was dying to juxtaposition those words), where he was now sent down to the Charlotte Checkers. Roman Polak went back to Toronto and honestly, that was probably for the better for San Jose. Aaron Dell is the new backup to Martin Jones and would someone just let Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau win a Cup this year? I mean, if Phil Kessel can, then surely those guys can too.

St. Louis Blues

The St. Louis Blues will be consciously uncoupling with Ken Hitchcock at the end of the season in his farewell to coaching tour. Mike Yeo has already been named as his replacement and has begun barking out orders at practice, similar to his meltdown in Minnesota (though I have not confirmed that).

They lost David Backes to free agency, because the salary cap exists and good luck to the front office in St. Louis to try figure that one out in the next few years. Meanwhile they added Nail Yakupov for virtually nothing, though in their defense, they already had their own Yakupov in Magnus Paajarvi on their roster, so maybe this time they can make it work.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov and the Tampa Bay Lightning finally agreed to a three year bridge deal extension, so Lightning fans rejoice, your fountain of youth is still intact for now. Steven Stamkos stuck around for eight more years and GM Steve Yzerman can now take the next six months off until the playoffs when he has to start worrying about how far his team will go and what to do with Ben Bishop and Andrei Vasilevskiy.

The Bolts look like geniuses here, for having developed their players well over the last few seasons and will more than likely dominant the Atlantic Division with their in-state rivals, the Florida Panthers. Sadly, Tampa probably won’t win the Cup because the Blackhawks exist and that whole 2013, 2015, 20??? pattern exists.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Auston Matthews.

(Colby told me to just write that. I think it works).

Vancouver Canucks

Loui Eriksson joined fellow Swedes, Daniel and Henrik Sedin in Vancouver this offseason. So in other news, Team Sweden, feel free to send the Canucks some of your jerseys, because after looking at the rest of the roster, I’m sure they don’t want to be associated with whatever Vancouver’s front office is doing.

Vancouver added Erik Gudbranson. At the cost of Jared McCann to the Florida Panthers. Actually, from the sound of it, it wasn’t a cost at all. The Canucks hate youths. Millennials ruin everything. Best of luck to you Ryan Miller and Jacob Markstrom.

Washington Capitals

The Washington Capitals acquired Lars Eller this offseason, so that’s good, but they also signed Brett Connolly via free agency (so that’s bad). But let’s be honest, the Capitals will probably make the former 6th overall pick better than he’s ever been. Or at least playing on a line with Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov or Nicklas Backstrom will probably help with that.

So basically, the outlook for Washington is this: they’re a good team, they’ll do well, Braden Holtby is elite and they’ll win a lot. Maybe a Cup run is in their future.

Winnipeg Jets

Patrik Laine was selected 2nd overall at this year’s draft by the Winnipeg Jets, Blake Wheeler was named captain and Winnipeg finally moved on from Ondrej Pavelec (by sending him to Manitoba).

What’s that? Jacob Trouba is still a RFA? He wants to be TRADED? Forget all of the good storylines going for the Jets, the Trouba dilemma overshadows everything especially after Rasmus Ristolainen re-signed with the Sabres and began the end of the stare down between Ristolainen, Hampus Lindholm and Trouba as to which RFA defenseman would make a move first. So Kevin Cheveldayoff, who are you going to trade Trouba to? Asking for a friend. No, but seriously, he doesn’t want to miss playing time.

*Honorable mention* Las Vegas _____ Knights

Honestly, somebody just name the team already. I want to start working on coming up with a uniform in NHL 17’s Franchise Mode for you, Bill Foley.

President’s Trophy Winner

If you’re Canadian, this doesn’t matter. If you’re American, good luck. Oh, you meant the President’s Trophy, as in “the team with the best record at the end of the regular season in the NHL”? Well, probably can’t go wrong with the Washington Capitals for that one, unlike their other Washington counterparts that have marred records.

1st Place in the Atlantic Division at season’s end– Florida Panthers or Tampa Bay Lightning, basically the entire state of Florida

One of the teams in Florida will win the Atlantic Division, that’s really all I know.

1st Place in the Metropolitan Division at season’s end– Pittsburgh Penguins

It’s no cakewalk, but Matt Murray and Marc-Andre Fleury live up to that “two is better than one” mantra (sorry Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss).

1st Place in the Central Division at season’s end– Nashville Predators

It doesn’t really matter who clinches the Central Division this season because they’re still going to lose in the 2nd or 3rd round of the playoffs.

1st Place in the Pacific Division at season’s end– Los Angeles Kings

Winning the division isn’t everything. Just ask the 2015-2016 Anaheim Ducks and the late 2000s/early 2010s San Jose Sharks. Unfortunately what this means for Los Angeles is that they’ll be out in seven games in the first round.

October 12, 2016
October 12 – Opening Day – What to choose?
The day we’ve all been waiting for is finally upon us: Opening day of the NHL season. It’s time to see if *insert the name of your favorite team’s GM here* made any good decisions during the off-season, or if you’ll just spend the next seven months cursing at your television set.

Oh wait, you’ll be doing that even if your team is good? Carry on, then.

Just like last year’s opener, we’ve got four games on the docket. Some stats about them? Sure, I thought you’d never ask!

Two contests will occur in the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave, and the other two will be under the red and white maple leaf where many citizens of the first nation might be headed after November’s election. Similarly, no teams will be crossing any national borders, meaning that it will be American vs. American and Canadian vs. Canadian clubs. Each timezone will also be represented in this evening’s festivities, beginning in Eastern time and traveling across the map towards the Pacific.

Tonight will feature Toronto visiting Ottawa in the Battle of Ontario at 7 p.m. (SN and TVAS), followed an hour later by St. Louis at Chicago (NBCSN). 10 p.m. marks the puck drop of Calgary at Edmonton (SN and TVAS2), the first installment of the Battle of Alberta this year, followed half an hour later by Los Angeles at San Jose (NBCSN) to start this season’s Battle of California. All times eastern.

Which one to pick… which one to pick…

I know: all of them.

That’s right, each game is too special not to watch this evening, so we’re going to break tradition (does a series only in its second year have traditions?) and feature all four of tonight’s games. So without further to do, let’s get some quick previews in before you get watching.

This game is a special one not simply because of the rivalry that exists between these squads, but that it is also the first official game that the Leafs will be sporting their new logo as well as the first wearing of their road whites. As explained here, the level of symbolism in the new crest is pretty cool, including references to the 1931 opening of the Maple Leaf Gardens (hint: count the points of the leaf), the 1917 foundation of the franchise and their 13 Stanley Cup titles (hint: count the veins, and note a majority of their locations above the word mark).

Beyond that, this is also a rivalry game, and probably one of the four most circled dates on the Sens‘ calendar (the other three being the remainder of this series). Ottawa swept the season series last year and certainly has intentions of continuing that success after the summer break.

If you’re a little bit old-school and enjoy a good hockey scrap, this is probably your game this evening – this series leads the league in fights and penalty minutes.

This has been one of the best rivalries in recent years, and that has only intensified – twice – since the end of April, which witnessed St. Louis beating the Blackhawks in Game 7 to advance to the Western Semifinals, and eventually the Western Finals. Chicago will look to exact revenge against a Notes squad that ended their title defense earlier than they would have liked.

Further dirtying the waters, the Blues and Blackhawks played a preseason game only 11 days ago. My opinions on division rivals contesting exhibitions deserves another post, but the net result was a questionable blow from Niklas Hjalmarsson against Ty Rattie. The defenseman was suspended for the remainder of the preseason as well as tonight’s game for throwing a leaping shoulder at the right wing’s head. Although he was not injured, Rattie’s linemates were quick to converge on Hjalmarsson, and I fully expect there to be some carryover both tonight and November 9 after the defenseman returns.

The third of our four rivalries this evening, this edition of the Battle of Alberta is special in a similar way to the Battle of Ontario. This will be the first official game played in Rogers Place after 42 years at Rexall Place, and what better way to commemorate it than with naming Connor McDavid the youngest captain in NHL history.

And you thought Sidney Crosby was a baby-faced captain.

The Oil‘s new home, located almost dead-center in downtown Edmonton, increases their seating capacity by almost 2000 and moves them to the bottom of the list of oldest arenas – a list they ranked second in a year ago.

Speaking of new beginnings, the Oilers hope to continue rebuilding towards the days of old with this year’s first rounder, Jesse Puljujärvi. Perhaps this game will be a sampler of how Todd McLellan intends to use his offensive youngsters this season.

The final game of the night should be one of the better ones. The Battle of California has extended into the playoffs for three of the last four seasons, including San Jose advancing to the Western Semifinals, and eventually the Stanley Cup Finals, over the Kings in five games last season. This should be a fantastic game, one well worth staying awake for if you’re tuning in from the East Coast.

Best of luck to your team if they’re playing this evening. If not, we’ll see you tomorrow!

Hockey Birthday
- Jaroslav Drobný (1921-2001) – Tennis aficionados are raising their eyebrows at this one. Drobný may be more commonly known for his three major titles (including two French Opens), but he was also a highly successful amateur hockey player. In 1947, he was a part of the Czechoslovakian team that took gold at the World Ice Hockey Championships, where he scored 15 goals in seven games, including a hat trick against the Stars and Stripes. He also helped Czechoslovakia to the silver medal in the Winter Olympics a year later, “falling” to Canada in a goalless championship game. He scored nine goals in eight games in St. Moritz, Switzerland. Drobný impressed the Boston Bruins in that tournament, and they offered him a $20,000 contract. If he hadn’t declined to focus on his tennis career, he would’ve been the first European to play in the NHL (instead, Swede Ulf Sterner takes that title, joining the Rangers 16 years later in 1965). He was inducted into the IIHF Hall of Fame in 1997.
- Denis Brodeur (1930-2013) – Father of Devils‘ legendary goaltender Martin Brodeur, Denis also knew his way around the crease. He was on the Canadian team that took bronze in the 1956 Winter Olympics at Cortina D’Ampezzo, Italy.
- J.J. Daigneault (1965) – The defender made his NHL debut during the 1984-’85 season with Vancouver, but the 10-team journeyman will be most known for his days with the Canadiens. He played six seasons and seven games in Montréal, 39% of his 900 regular season-game career. He currently serves as an assistant coach with the Habs, a position he’s held since 2012.
- Dwayne Roloson (1969) – This goaltender made his NHL debut during the 1996-’97 season with the Calgary Flames. He played in 606 regular season games, most of which were with the Edmonton Oilers (193 games over four seasons).
- Mike Green (1985) – Although this is his second season in Detriot, this will be the defenseman’s 12th season in the league. Most of that time was spent in Washington, where he played in 575 regular season games and seven postseasons.
- Sean Monahan (1994) – Entering Year Four of his career, Monahan has gotten his start in Calgary. The sixth player selected in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, the center has appeared in 237 regular season games already and has 159 points his credit. Also, this kid is younger than me, so take that for what it’s worth.
October 12, 2016
Forever Archived 2015-2016 Stats

By: Nick Lanciani

So I’m in the process of changing up how I’ll present some projected stats this season and moving forward (for now, at least). Having said that, there’ll be a few changes to the way this page works. For starters, it’s no longer a page, technically speaking, but I’m sure you don’t want to be bored with website construction stuff. This season I will be tracking two teams, the Boston Bruins (predictably) and the Arizona Coyotes (because they follow us on Twitter, so it’s like we’re best friends and I’m doing them a favor). Also, if John Chayka sees this, then maybe he should hire me. Please. Someone. Hello?

With the increasingly large swath of data that I have to trudge through and the many things I have going on in life currently (like looking at Corsi Twitter data for a content analysis using grounded theory— you bet it’s a lot of fun), it’s looking like I will only be able to update the projections after every 20 games or so, instead of after every 10 games. I’d love to project stats for every player in the NHL someday, but alas…

I’ve already completed projections for one of the two teams mentioned above and will be finishing the other team up by the weekend, so I’ll retroactively post how both teams are supposed to perform this season after the first couple of games have been played.

For now, I’ll leave you all with a memory of the golden days of how I did things just last season.

How I used to run my projected stats…

Using Microsoft Excel I display just how much I don’t have a life on this page. After every ten games or so, I update my projections for every player currently on the Boston Bruins, compile the results on one document, and then display my findings here for you to determine if someone’s doing well or not. As an armchair GM you can always wish that someone would get traded, but maybe now you’ll have something to back those demands up.

I would have tried to compile projections for every team in the NHL this season, however, I simply do not have enough of time currently to commit to that. Hopefully sometime this summer I’ll have a few more teams up here.

I will update the Bruins projections after every ten games and leave all of my findings for your viewing pleasure and so you can make your own analysis as the season progresses.

(Just click on the chart for slightly improved quality).

2015-2016 Season Projections

Boston Bruins Projections After 80 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections After 70 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections After 60 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections After 50 of 82 Games Played

(my data after 50 games played deleted itself :,( sorry for the inconvenience)

Boston Bruins Projections After 40 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections After 30 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections After 20 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections After 10 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections Before the Start of the 2015-2016 Season

All career numbers are taken into account in the determination of the projected outcome. In determining projected Corsi for% I average the player’s current Corsi for% with their remaining projected Corsi for%. For S%, I average a player’s current shooting percentage with their remaining S% projection, therefore, the S% typically will not reflect what one would get from dividing the projected goal total from the projected shot total for each player.

Players listed in italics are currently in the AHL with the Providence Bruins. A player that is currently on the injured reserve is reflected by an underline and an “IR” notation in the Games Played column. For players that have yet to play an NHL game with the Bruins this season, I made my best projections based on their career statistics and if they happened to miraculously play in all of the remaining games this season for Boston.

Also, please note that for goaltenders in this chart, I have not determined how to reflect projections accurately- other than basing all numbers on if the goalie played in every game remaining in the season. For a more accurate representation, I anticipate to use similar playing time from the 2014-2015 season to project the 2015-2016 season sometime, however I am in the process of transitioning all goalie stats to another page on this site.

And finally, the numbers for goalies probably won’t always add up right (if you’re analyzing the numbers that much), because again, I haven’t learned how to predict the unpredictable- goalies are weird anyways. Until I figure out how to deal with goaltenders in their own special way, I have a rather generic preview of how they might do.

As I mentioned above, I’m in the process of transitioning Nick’s Net into a page dedicated to goalie stats and projections for every goalie in the NHL, so I might just pull all goalie notes from this page in the near future.

– Nick Lanciani

P.S. For a look at the process, here’s a glimpse of the Excel spreadsheet I work with.

*Corsi% denotes Corsi for%

October 12, 2016
Flyers fan Fanelli is our crazed Philly [ph]an

By: Nick Lanciani

This season on Down the Frozen River we’re going to write some more feature stories, starting with ourselves, of course. Here’s one about DTFR member, Frank Fanelli.

A tall, young, bearded man ambles up to the door of a four-story brick building with a Philadelphia Flyers jacket on that makes him look like he should be behind the bench as the equipment manager, at least— if not athletic trainer— and approaches with a grin. We exchange pleasantries then head up to the Down the Frozen River studio to begin this interview.

Born in Arlington, Texas, Frank Fanelli has moved a total of seven times in 18 years. He’s lived in Texas, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and now currently resides in North Carolina, though he doesn’t remember much up until about New Jersey. Fanelli and his family have bounced around the country as his father’s job has called them to new and exciting lands within the United States.

The middle child, technically by 20 minutes, says he was reminded a lot when he was younger of the fact that his older twin sister was born first. Fanelli grew up in a household with two siblings, his older twin sister and a younger sister. He says they’ve always been pretty tight and have never argued much, but that they have always had a bit of healthy competition between the three of them.

While Fanelli and his family were living in Pennsylvania, he fell in love with hockey. Fanelli quickly became a Philadelphia Flyers fan when Mike Richards was with the team and playing in his prime, however, Fanelli’s love for the Flyers was not easily reciprocated by the people he was surrounded by. You see, he was a Flyers fan, living in Pittsburgh Penguins territory. Unlike the City of Brotherly Love, there’s no love in Pittsburgh. At least if you’re a Flyers fan.

Yet for Fanelli’s sake, he could take comfort in knowing that only his closest friends knew he was a Flyers fan and that “no one really [other than them] knew or would give me trash [otherwise] unless I wore a Flyers jersey.” Fanelli proudly wore Philadelphia apparel to Penguins-Flyers matchups at Mellon Arena growing up.

“People would lay into you and I wanted to say something back, but unfortunately I couldn’t. It bothered me, but I got used to it over the eight years of living there,” Fanelli recalled. He explained how the atmosphere of a Penguins vs. Flyers game is unlike any other he has experienced in that there’s usually a brawl, intense momentum swings, lead changes and lots of blown leads between the two teams. But that’s all part of the highs and lows of the sport.

One of the more memorable highs of the sport in Fanelli’s lifetime was when the Flyers went on to face the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2010 Stanley Cup Final. He explained the emotional rollercoaster of a ride that the then 13-year old version of himself was part of during the Flyers comeback in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against the Boston Bruins that led to the unthinkable, though ultimately disappointing 2010 Stanley Cup Final run.

Despite the fact that the Flyers lost, Fanelli took residence in the holistic approach to hockey— the experience of the sport in one of its best forms, on one of its largest stages. Fanelli was at Game 1.

“I remember a lot— I probably won’t remember a lot when I’m 80 though,” Fanelli remarked. “My dad worked for Dick’s [Sporting Goods] at the time and got tickets from the NHL. We were sitting behind one of the nets.” Fanelli remembers the remarkable atmosphere of an Original Six arena, long dehydrated from a Stanley Cup run. “[Chicago’s] goal horn and ‘Chelsea Dagger’ got embedded in my mind. Usually when your team scores five goals, you expect them to win, but that wasn’t the case for the Flyers that night.”

Philadelphia dropped Game 1, 6-5. While leaving the United Center, Fanelli experienced some trash talk from the notoriously passionate Blackhawks fans, but he took it in stride as part of the road game experience.

Aside from attending Game 1 of the 2010 Stanley Cup Final, Fanelli’s other most enjoyable experience as a fan happened when he went to the 2012 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic between the Philadelphia Flyers and the New York Rangers. Although, once again, Fanelli watched his team lose, the overall atmosphere of an outdoor NHL game as the home team made it that much better at the end of the day.

“The United Center [in 2010] had the best overall atmosphere, but the 2012 Winter Classic is definitely a close second,” Fanelli remarked as he then explained how he became a Flyers fan. “It’s because I played hockey at the time— I still do— but becoming a professional hockey player was something I wanted to be when I was five years old.”

Fanelli celebrates his favorite goal that he ever scored from his days of youth hockey. (Photo via Frank Fanelli)

When Fanelli was young and just started to get into the sport, his eyes latched onto one Flyers forward in his prime— Mike Richards. There was just something about the way that Richards played that drew Fanelli to the TV for every game broadcast, combined with the style of play Philadelphia has long been accustomed to.

Brash, hard hitting, tough; the Broad Street Bullies have been shoving their weight around the NHL since 1967, but have been number one in the hearts of their city and fans forever, as the team has matched the work ethic of the citizens of Philadelphia— never give up. Fanelli admits to not being as “successful” as some players are growing up playing youth hockey, scoring many goals and mimicking their heroes, but his style of play has always had a role on any team. He doesn’t give up on a play and knows when to come in clutch— like the work ethic of many Flyers over the years.

For a while, Richards was Fanelli’s favorite player (and not just because 18 was Richards’ jersey number and Fanelli’s favorite number— though it was his favorite number before associating it with Richards ever since. “It just came naturally,” he exclaimed). He was devastated when Philadelphia traded their captain, Mike Richards, and Flyers prospect, Rob Bordson, to the Los Angeles Kings in June 2011.

Although the Flyers got Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn and the Kings’ 2012 2^nd round pick in the deal, Fanelli was less than thrilled. In fact, Fanelli has had a few qualms to say about former Philadelphia GM, now President of the Flyers, Paul Holmgren’s time with the organization. Fanelli hated the Richards trade and wasn’t a fan when Holmgren traded Simon Gagne to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Matt Walker and a 2011 4^th round pick in July 2010.

But by now, Fanelli’s used to the revolving door side of the business of hockey— and that’s helped grow his interest in the sport. Players come and players go— sometimes a lot quicker than you want, other times agonizingly too slow to watch as a fan. Prior to being a fan of Richards, Fanelli’s favorite Flyer was Daniel Briere. Since Mike Richards, it’s been Claude Giroux.

His all time favorite Flyer “would have to be either Eric Lindros or Bobby Clarke.” From the mindset of a player, Fanelli understands the business side of the sport and the urge to win, but as a Sport Management major at Queens University of Charlotte, Fanelli’s passion for the front office has grown.

“I want to work for a sports team— preferably a hockey team [in any league]. I want to work for the business operations side or hockey operations side— GM, Vice President, President, Owner, Coach; you name it. Mainly I want to work as a marketing or analytics guy,” Fanelli added, while also mentioning that he wouldn’t mind working in a scouting department too. “It may change, but that’s what I have my mind set on.”

Change is part of the sport, but one thing remains the same, his love for Philadelphia. To help celebrate 50 years of the single largest moment of expansion in NHL history (when the league doubled in size from six teams to 12 with the addition of the California Golden Seals, Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota North Stars and St. Louis Blues), this season’s Coors Light NHL Stadium Series game is being held between the Penguins and the Flyers at Heinz Field.

And like any Philly fan, Fanelli wants to be there, in enemy territory, to cheer on the Flyers. February 25, 2017 won’t just be his third outdoor game; it might become his favorite moment in Flyers history, if his team is able to pull off the win.

“I’m looking forward to the atmosphere. Just seeing the atmosphere and an outside game… …it’s the greatest thing in the world.” But it could be said that anywhere there’s a rink is the greatest thing in the world. There’s not a day that goes by that Fanelli isn’t wearing something associated with the Flyers (or any Philly sports team for that matter).

While graduation is just a couple of years away, one can only assume that Fanelli is not that far away from nesting his home somewhere in the realm of one of his favorite teams, whether it’s the Flyers, the Philadelphia Phillies, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Philadelphia Union or the Philadelphia 76ers, the time is almost now for him to begin the ascension to the throne of a front office position in Philadelphia sports.

October 1, 2016
Down the Frozen River Podcast #35- 2016-2017 Season Preview: Atlantic Division

The Down the Frozen River crew is back with yet another week of exciting hot takes and a preview of every Atlantic Division team for the 2016-2017 season. Join Colby, Frank and Nick as they discuss several of the Atlantic Division’s offseason’s biggest acquisitions and other tidbits of information. As always, stayed tuned for weekly coverage of the latest news and notes around the NHL every week on the Down the Frozen River Podcast.

Join the conversation, make a suggestion, or ask a question for our next podcast using #AskDownTheFrozenRiver or #DTFRPodcast on Twitter and/or drop us a line on Facebook– your thoughts might make it on our show!

September 16, 2016
Colby’s Corner Sabres’ Swords In the Playoffs

If you have been following the blog at all or just me personally you know I am a huge Buffalo Sabres fan. With this being said, it has been a year since I have written an article about them, so it’s about time for the Sabres update.

The Sabres roster looks a little different going into this season as Chad Johnson, David Legwand and Carlo Colaiacovo’s contracts have expired and they are no longer with the team.

At the 2016 draft, Tim Murray made another trade as the Sabres acquired a top four defenseman Dmitry Kulikov for Mark Pysyk. Another trade at the draft was a 3^rd round pick for the negotiating rights of Jimmy Vesey. Jimmy Vesey was due to become a UFA on August 15^th when Murray acquired him. This gave the Sabres a few weeks to talk with Vesey before that date. In the end, Vesey decided to become a UFA and eventually chose the New York Rangers as his new team.

The team continued to get better as they landed a top free agent in Kyle Okposo for a 7-year, $42 million contract. This figures out to be a six million dollar average annual value (per year cap hit). The Sabres added a few AHL players for Rochester in free agency, the biggest name being Justin Falk, who will fight to be the depth guy in Buffalo. Most of the Sabres offseason was trying to re-sign their current players.

The Sabres gave one-year deals to Zemgus Girgensons, Marcus Foligno, Daniel Catenacci, Cole Schneider and Johan Larsson. Jason Kasdorf, Casey Nelson and Nicolas Deslauriers got 2-year deals. Jake McCabe got a 3-year deal with $1.6M average annual value. There is only one RFA left and that is Rasmus Ristolainen. Not to worry, though, he is expected to sign a big long-term deal keeping him with the Sabres for a while. (As for why Murray is waiting, I have no clue and I am as frustrated as you are.)

So with all of these moves plus adding a top six winger and top four defenseman, what does this mean for the Sabres this upcoming season?

Here are my thoughts on the subject. The Sabres need to be playoff-bound this year for a few reasons:

First, the Atlantic division is completely up for grabs this year. Looking at the division, there isn’t one clear winner like years past. Boston and Montreal have questions defensively to figure out. The Florida Panthers have a lot of new faces, but will they all fit and work together right? Tampa might be the strongest team in the division after keeping Steven Stamkos.

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert

Second, if the Sabres don’t make the playoffs, it could be the end of Dan Bylsma in Buffalo. Bylsma wasn’t Murray first choice to be coach of this team, and if the team doesn’t improve at the rate Murray wants them to, there could be big changes and Bylsma could be one of them.

Finally, do it for Marcus and Zemgus. Folgino and Girgensons had a few question asked of them about production last season. If the team doesn’t make the playoffs this season, these are two guys who could be playing their last season in Buffalo unless their production jumps up dramatically. You may call me crazy for this thought, but it really does hurt me knowing that my favorite player (Girgensons) may be traded at some point.

September 8, 2016
Reflection

By: Nick Lanciani

Five years ago, the hockey world suffered collectively from several of the greatest tragedies in the history of the sport. In the warm months of 2011, the hockey world lost Derek Boogaard, Rick Rypien, Wade Belak and the entire Lokomotiv Yaroslavl (KHL) team over the course of one offseason.

In the summer of 2011, I personally was celebrating the success of my favorite NHL team’s Stanley Cup championship. I had grown up dreaming of one day seeing them raise the Cup, but none of that seems to matter when you remember that at the end of the day, every player of the game is human.

Hindsight is 20/20 and we could say that there were warning signs and better ways we could’ve helped players like Boogaard, Rypien and Belak, but the fact of the matter is that nothing can bring them back and we must move on, remembering them, and committing ourselves to doing more. We have to do more.

Enough is enough when it comes to senseless fighting in the NHL. It’s not the 1970s anymore.

But even I seem to battle with the existential question of whether fighting in the NHL should be allowed to continue. In some respects it sets apart the sport from any other (but it is after all, still a penalty). In others, I can see where it is deemed barbaric.

If the league were to follow a protocol similar to the OHL’s newly introduced rules on fighting, I do not think it would be all that bad for the marketability of the sport. Hockey, in its purest form, will always go on. And the NHL will always be the top league in the hockey world for talent and superstar work ethic, skill, coaching and leadership.

Especially at the Junior level, we all have to remember, the players are just kids.

When Marc Savard suffered an estimated six concussions in his Junior days alone, we should’ve realized when to step in and step up. Sadly, new studies and discoveries about the brain are too late to repair the shattered and fragmented careers of far too many Junior players who went on or did not go on to see the days of life in the NHL.

Likewise, it’s too late to undo what’s been done to those former NHLers now suffering from Alzheimers, dementia and other debilitating diseases caused, in part, by head trauma.

In the summer of 2011, I was riding the highs of victory, but the dark shadows cast by the losses of Boogaard, Rypien and Belak cemented the fruition of what my eyes only see when I look at any player on the ice— another human.

They’re not heroes in the sense that they are far above me as an individual or that they are superhuman, but every NHL player is ultimately just another human being with a right to a life after their career. They are heroes in the sense that they get to play a game for a living that I’m sure most of us could only dream of ever doing for a living.

They are heroes in every win and every loss, but not every win or loss should come in the form of winning a lawsuit for the loss of a life.

The dark days of 2011 were only blackened some more when the Lokomotiv Yaroslavl plane crash occurred.

How could such joys of watching a team win the Cup be mirrored with the lows of tragedy?

I remember watching Karlis Skrastins, Pavol Demitra and Ruslan Salei at one point or another in person or on TV. I had never seen Brad McCrimmon play, but I remember hearing about him and his short stint with the Boston Bruins from 1979-1982.

I think of every member of that team, their families and that entire organization every September 7th. I remember how a community came together to memorialize them all and mourn as one family. I remember that so much good has come from so much bad and horrible memories of the summer of 2011.

We owe it to every player to do more. To be more as they’ve been more. To be with them as they’ve been alongside others.

Our lives are short. We never know when the last time might be.

But there is always time for a first time for a better tomorrow. And I want to see us live it well.

It sickened me when I heard last year that cocaine abuse in the NHL was on the rise. Both the NHLPA and the NHL have to do more to help their players— their colleagues, their friends, their fellow humans.

It disgusts me that NHL Commissioner, Gary Bettman, continues to deny a link between CTE and head injuries. The emails that were leaked earlier this year show that Brendan Shanahan should really be commended for speaking out and starting the conversation for change.

Even the NFL is beginning to take things seriously as they give studying head injuries a second thought.

The league has to do more. I’m not interested in whether or not the league accepts blame or admits defeat at this point, but rather that they will commit themselves to doing more to protect their players and help them move forward with their lives after hockey. Let’s start talking about solutions instead of finger pointing and blaming.

Let’s always remember the good times we had with Derek Boogaard, Rick Rypien and Wade Belak.

And let us never forget the tremendous people of Lokomotiv Yaroslavl, the tremendous hockey players, coaches, trainers and more, that were killed five years ago today.

As we reflect, we move forward in their memory.

September 7, 2016
Vesey’s Pieces

By: Nick Lanciani

Bad forced play-on-word attempts are my middle name, so in “Vesey’s Pieces” I take a look at what teams have the right pieces in place to lock up Jimmy Vesey on August 15th (if he doesn’t re-sign with the Buffalo Sabres before then).

Here’s a list of teams that could sign Vesey:

Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Colorado Avalanche, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers, Las Vegas, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, Montreal Canadiens, ~~Nashville Predators~~, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, St. Louis Blues, San Jose Sharks, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Washington Capitals, Winnipeg Jets

Yes, that list includes Las Vegas, because wouldn’t it be funny if Jimmy Vesey decided to wait another year just to mess with everyone and give him 31 options instead of 30?

Also, I know the salary cap exists, but teams are allowed to exceed the cap by 10% without facing penalty in the offseason. By training camp each organization must be cap compliant, meaning that any team could sign Vesey to the maximum amount of $925,000 on August 15th and spend the rest of the offseason figuring out who they’ll trade or send down to the AHL to fit under the salary cap.

Realistically, let’s take a look at who’s in play, shall we?

The fact of the matter is that Jimmy Vesey’s agent seems to confirm just about anything that’s been asked. Are the Bruins interested? Are the Blackhawks interested? Are the Sabres interested? Is Toronto interested? Does Jimmy think a hot dog is a sandwich?

All of these questions seem to be met with a “yes” or “there’s a mutual interest something something they’re expected to be on the short list something something get out of here with your hot dog takes.”

Enough foolishness aside, Colby Kephart and I agreed on Tuesday in a private conversation that we’re both tired of the media circus that’s become the Vesey Decision 2016. It’s nothing against Vesey as a player, or his right to explore all of his options per the collective bargaining agreement in the manner that he is, but rather it’s the hype that we’re annoyed about.

Nobody is questioning his ability, having amassed 24-22-46 totals in 33 games this season with the Harvard Crimson and 32-26-58 totals the year before that in 37 games played. That’s 104 points in 70 games over his final two seasons with the Crimson, if you can’t do the math. Vesey’s numbers have grown and his playing style has developed as he’s gone through four years at Harvard, in the midst of one of the greatest college hockey cities in the United States- all while not being put against Hockey East universities on the regular, mind you.

That’s not to discredit the ECAC either. Vesey is a college standout. He’s the real deal, but like any prospect, there’s a chance he won’t make as much of an impact as one would expect.

And that is what hinges me from being able to say without a doubt he’s apt to be going to one team or another, because it all depends on how much of a risk teams are willing to take.

Could he sign with his hometown team in Boston? Absolutely, but it’s not like the Bruins won’t be fine offensively if they don’t sign Vesey. Their top-six forwards are Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, David Krejci, Matt Beleskey, David Backes and/or Frank Vatrano (which technically breaks the rules of limiting the discussion to just six players if one includes Vatrano).

Would a solidified top-nine make the Bruins a better team? I guess you could say so, but that does nothing to improve their defense.

Buffalo has been trying their hardest to keep Vesey around longer than just for this summer with their Jack Eichel diplomacy, but even there, it’s not like they’ll be that much better of a team or that much worse if they lose out on Vesey for only the cost of a third round pick. Keep in mind Boston traded a third round pick for Zac Rinaldo after all.

The Sabres have a quality roster with the addition of Kyle Okposo this offseason and rising sophomore Eichel and friends. Tim Murray’s been making the right moves as their general manager and this could be the season that they get back into the playoffs if they play their cards right, their guys stay healthy and the right additions without subtracting reveal themselves throughout the season.

They won’t lead the Atlantic Division, because hello, the entire state of Florida is good at hockey right now. Yet Buffalo will definitely be more competitive against a weakened, P.K. Subban-less Montreal Canadiens, the Ottawa Senators (who’ll end up overpaying Cody Ceci, just watch), Detroit Red Wings (who’ll probably miss the playoffs for the first time in forever) and Bruins (what’s a defense).

As for Chicago, what are the odds that Vesey will win the Cup in his first season if he signs with them? Pretty great probably, but what are the odds that he’d get traded that offseason or in his first few years in the league from the Blackhawks? Also pretty good, since his last name isn’t Kane, Toews, Panarin, or Hossa (or any of their other core guys).

It’s hard to crack the core in Chicago, even if they are to move Marian Hossa in the coming season(s). But it also looks like poor salary cap management may finally be catching up to them, ignoring the fact that this is what is said every other year about the Blackhawks.

The Maple Leafs seem to be largely at play, what with Auston Matthews being a main attraction and Vesey’s family ties to the organization. While we’re on the subject of Toronto, why not take a look at the Arizona Coyotes who have done everything the Maple Leafs have dreamed of in one offseason at this point?

There’s a great chance he’ll end up with an Original Six team, because that’s where it seems his interest resides. In the end it’s all about the best fit, which could sway Vesey to a team like the Coyotes where he has the chance to standout on the roster and against other teams, if that’s what he’s after. Or he could stay with the Sabres.

Then again, he’ll probably sign with a team none of us expected him to sign with and disappoint every fanbase that was on edge, awaiting a signature on a piece of paper with their team’s logo on it.

But hey, for the record, I’ve never had Reese’s Pieces which might shock you even more than Jimmy Vesey getting your hopes up and signing with a different team. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

August 3, 2016
2016 NHL Free Agency-July 1st Signings Recap

By: Nick Lanciani

This post will be updated throughout the day as signings are officially announced. Be sure to check our Twitter account (@DtFrozenRiver) for all of the latest signings, news, and analysis throughout the day.

Free agency begins at noon (technically 12:01 PM ET) on July 1st. All that is known is shown and will be updated throughout the day. More analysis will come later as the day wraps up.

LW Loui Eriksson signed a 6 year, $6.000 million AAV contract with the Vancouver Canucks.

F Andrew Ladd signed a 7 year deal with the New York Islanders worth $38.5 million ($5.500 million AAV).

D Stuart Percy has signed a 1 year, two-way contract with the Pittsburgh Penguins worth $575,000 at the NHL level, $200,000 at the AHL level.

G James Reimer signed a 5 year, $3.4 million AAV contract with the Florida Panthers.

LW Milan Lucic has signed a 7 year deal with the Edmonton Oilers worth $6.000 million AAV.

D Michael Kostka signed a 1 year, two-way contract with the Ottawa Senators.

RW Colton Sceviour signed a 2 year deal with the Florida Panthers.

F Jonathan Marchessault signed a 2 year, $750,000 contract with the Florida Panthers.

G Anton Khudobin has signed a 2 year, $1.2 million contract with the Boston Bruins.

F David Perron signed a 2 year, $3.75 million contract with the St. Louis Blues.

C Frans Nielsen and the Detroit Red Wings agreed to terms on a 6 year deal worth $5.250 million AAV.

G Alex Stalock signed a 1 year deal with the Minnesota Wild.

C David Backes signed a 5 year, $6.000 million AAV contract with the Boston Bruins.

D John-Michael Liles signed a 1 year, $2.000 million contract with the Boston Bruins (re-signed).

D Brian Campbell signed a 1 year contract with the Chicago Blackhawks.

F Kyle Okposo signed a 7 year, $6.000 million AAV, contract with the Buffalo Sabres.

F Phil Varone signed a 1 year, two-way contact with the Ottawa Senators.

F Troy Brouwer signed a 4 year, $4.5 million AAV contract with the Calgary Flames.

C Eric Staal has signed a 3 year, $3.500 million AAV deal with the Minnesota Wild.

G Carter Hutton signed a 2 year, $1.125 million deal with the St. Louis Blues.

D Tom Gilbert signed a 1 year, $1.400 million deal with the Los Angeles Kings.

The Chicago Blackhawks signed F Sam Carrick and F Pierre-Cedric Larie to 1 year contracts.

F Jason Chimera signed a 2 year, $2.250 million contract with the New York Islanders.

G Chad Johnson signed a 1 year, $1.700 million deal with the Calgary Flames.

D Ben Lovejoy signed a 3 year, $2.666 million AAV deal with the New Jersey Devils.

C Casey Bailey signed a 1 year, two-way contract with the Ottawa Senators.

LW Matt Lorito signed a 2 year deal with the Detroit Red Wings.

F Chris Stewart signed a 2 year, $1.150 million AAV contract with the Minnesota Wild.

F Jamie McGinn signed a 3 year, $10 million contract with the Arizona Coyotes (worth $3.300 million AAV).

F Vernon Fiddler has signed a 1 year, $1.250 million contract with the New Jersey Devils.

D Adam Clendening signed a $600,000 contract with the New York Rangers, worth $300,000 at the AHL level.

D David Warsofsky signed a 1 year, two-way contract with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The San Jose Sharks signed D David Schlemko to a 4 year contract worth $2.100 million AAV.

D Klas Dahlbeck signed a 1 year, $750,000 contract with the Arizona Coyotes.

F Max McCormick signed a 1 year, two-way contract with the Ottawa Senators.

F Dale Weise signed a 4 year contract with the Philadelphia Flyers worth $2.350 million AAV.

D Cameron Gaunce signed a 1 year, two-way contract with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

D Zach Trotman signed a $650,000 contract with the Los Angeles Kings.

G Jonas Gustavsson signed a 1 year contract worth $800,000 with the Edmonton Oilers.

F Viktor Stalberg signed a 1 year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes.

F Christian Thomas signed a 1 year deal with the Washington Capitals.

D Chad Ruhwedel signed a 1 year, two-way contract with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

D Jamie McBain signed a two-way contract with the Arizona Coyotes.

F Michael Chaput signed a two-way contract with the Vancouver Canucks.

G Al Montoya signed a 1 year, $950,000 deal with the Montreal Canadiens.

F Shawn Matthias signed a 2 year deal with the Winnipeg Jets worth $2.125 million AAV.

F Andy Miele signed a 1 year deal with the Philadelphia Flyers.

F Devante Smith-Pelly signed a 2 year deal with the New Jersey Devils worth $1.300 million AAV.

D Matt Irwin signed a 2 year deal with the Nashville Predators.

F Andrew Miller signed a 1 year, two-way contract with the Carolina Hurricanes.

F Alexander Radulov signed a 1 year, $5.750 million contract with the Montreal Canadiens.

The New Jersey Devils signed D Jon Merrill to a 2 year contract.

D Dan Hamhuis signed a 2 year contract with the Dallas Stars worth $3.750 million AAV.

G Jeff Zatkoff signed a 2 year, $900,000 AAV deal with the Los Angeles Kings.

The New Jersey Devils re-signed F Beau Bennett to a 1 year contract worth $725,000 (they had acquired him at the NHL Draft).

F Michael Grabner and the New York Rangers agreed to terms on a 2 year contract worth $1.600 million AAV.

The Colorado Avalanche signed D Ryan Stanton and F Turner Elson to two-way contracts.

D Zach Redmond signed a 2 year, $1.225 million contract with the Montreal Canadiens.

F Nathan Gerbe signed a deal with the New York Rangers.

F Boyd Gordon and the Philadelphia Flyers agreed to a 1 year contract, worth $950,000.

F Michael Latta signed a 1 year deal with the Los Angeles Kings.

F Andrew Agozzino signed a 1 year deal with the St. Louis Blues.

D Chad Billins signed a contract with the Vancouver Canucks.

F Lee Stempniak signed a 2 year, $2.5 million AAV contract with the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Ottawa Senators signed F Chad Nehring to a 1 year, two-way contract.

F Pat Cannone signed a 1 year, two-way contract with the Minnesota Wild.

D Patrick Wiercioch signed a 1 year, $800,000 deal with the Colorado Avalanche.

C Joe Colborne signed a 2 year, $2.500 million AAV contract with the Colorado Avalanche.

D Fedor Tyutin signed a 1 year, $2 million contract with the Colorado Avalanche.

D Ian McCoshen signed an Entry-Level Contract with the Florida Panthers.

RW Brett Connolly signed a 1 year, $850,000 contract with the Washington Capitals.

D Justin Falk signed a 1 year, $850,000 contract with the Buffalo Sabres.

F Jeremy Morin signed a 1 year, two-way, deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

D Mikhail Sergachev signed a 3 year Entry-Level Contract with the Montreal Canadiens.

F Quinton Howden signed a 1 year, two-way contract worth $650,000 with the Winnipeg Jets.

D Kevin Connauton signed a 2 year deal with the Arizona Coyotes.

F Patrick Eaves signed a 1 year, $1 million contract with the Dallas Stars (re-signed).

F Greg Carey signed a deal with the Philadelphia Flyers.

D Will O’Neill and the Philadelphia Flyers agreed to terms on a contract.

D Philip Larsen signed a 1 year, $1.025 million contract with the Vancouver Canucks.

F Michael Bournival signed a 1 year, two-way contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

F Gabriel Dumont signed a 1 year, two-way contract worth $575,000 with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Montreal Canadiens signed LW Daniel Carr to a 2 year contract worth $725,000 AAV.

D Mark Fraser signed a 1 year, two-way contract with the Edmonton Oilers.

F Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond signed a 1 year deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

G Justin Peters signed a 1 year contract with the Arizona Coyotes.

F Matt Martin signed a 4 year contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs, worth $2.500 million AAV.

G Joe Cannata signed a deal with the Washington Capitals.

D Darren Dietz agreed to terms with the Washington Capitals.

F Thomas Vanek signed a 1 year, $2.600 million deal with the Detroit Red Wings.

F Ryan White signed a 1 year deal, worth $1.000 million, with the Arizona Coyotes.

F Steve Ott signed a 1 year, $800,000 contract with the Detroit Red Wings.

The Winnipeg Jets and D Brian Strait agreed to terms on a 1 year, $600,000 contract.

F Mikkel Boedker signed a 4 year contract with the San Jose Sharks.

D Victor Bartley signed a 1 year, two-way contract, worth $650,000 in the NHL/$350,000 in the AHL with the Minnesota Wild.

F Spencer Abbott signed a 1 year contract with the Chicago Blackhawks.

The Dallas Stars signed D Andrew Bodnarchuk to a 2 year contract.

D Dustin Stevenson agreed to a 1 year contract with the Dallas Stars.

F Michael Blunden signed a 2 year, two-way contract with the Ottawa Senators.

D Michael Paliotta agreed to terms with the New York Rangers.

D Karl Stollery signed a 1 year, two-way contract, worth $575,000 at the NHL level with the New Jersey Devils.

The Vancouver Canucks signed C Jayson Megna to a 1 year deal.

RW Borna Rendulic signed a 1 year, two-way contact with the Vancouver Canucks.

The Detroit Red Wings signed G Edward Pasquale to a 1 year contract.

F Chris Mueller signed a 1 year, two-way contract with the Arizona Coyotes.

F Dennis Yan signed a 3 year Entry-Level Contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

D Yannick Weber signed a 1 year contract with the Nashville Predators.

F Riley Nash signed a 2 year contract, worth $900,000 AAV with the Boston Bruins.

G Jeremy Smith signed a 1 year contract with the Colorado Avalanche.

The Colorado Avalanche also agreed to terms with F Jim O’Brien, F Mike Sislo and F Joe Whitney to 1 year deals.

F Reid Petryk and F Trent Vogelhuber signed 2 year deals with the Colorado Avalanche.

RW Carter Camper signed a 1 year, two-way contract, worth $575,000 at the NHL level with the New Jersey Devils.

D Andrew MacWilliam signed a 1 year, two-way deal with the New Jersey Devils, worth $575,000 at the NHL level.

July 1, 2016
Numbers Game: Top-5 Pending UFA Goalies

By: Nick Lanciani

12:01 PM ET on July 1st (precisely) marks the start of the NHL’s free agency period, so of course, you’ve found yourself scavenging the Internet for the freshest hot takes and the best indications of where players will end up. Likewise, you probably just want to know who’s available out there (and I’m not talking about Tinder).

Well fear not, because I’m here to set things straight with a short series of posts about the Top-5 free agents in every category you can think of (UFA forwards, UFA defensemen, UFA goalies, RFA forwards, RFA defensemen and RFA goalies) in this latest edition of Numbers Game posts. Also, I have bad news, if you came here expecting to find a starting goaltender, you won’t find one.

1. G Chad Johnson (22-16-0-4, 2.36 GAA, .920 SV% with the Buffalo Sabres)- $1.300 million cap hit, 29 years old

Chad Johnson is the closest thing to a starting goaltender, compared to the majority of the rest of the pending UFA goalies. Goalies are weird. They have no timetable for development, they’re unpredictable and most everyone seems to make whatever conjecture imaginable about whether or not a goalie is good or not, worthy of starting or a lifetime backup (or #AHLLifer, but that might just be a running joke here).

Johnson is a solid backup (dare my circa 2010 self say it). In 45 games played for Buffalo this season, he racked up 22 wins, a 2.36 GAA and a .920 SV%. While that might not look elite compared to other goaltenders around the NHL, Johnson has been an entirely different goaltender since his 2.10 GAA and .925 SV% in 27 games with the Boston Bruins in 2013-2014. Granted, his goal against average crept past the 3.00 mark in 2014-2015 with his 19 game stint with the New York Islanders, with the right team, Johnson can solidify your crease.

If you even have a better blue line than most teams around the NHL, perhaps Johnson could be the next Martin Jones to emerge as a goalie that never really had a chance to fully take control of a number one starting job, without any competition, and run with it.

Look, at $1.300 million this season, Johnson is not much of a risk to take in the coming years if you sign him to a multiyear contract. The hope is that he continues his upswing as long as you balance his time and/or have a good enough team in front of him. Johnson is one of those underrated, feel good stories and who wouldn’t want to see him succeed?

2. G Jhonas Enroth (7-5-0-1, 2.17 GAA, .922 SV% with the Los Angeles Kings)- $1.250 million cap hit, 27 years old

Jhonas Enroth is not a starting goalie. Now that that’s out of the way, here’s why. He had his best career save percentage with the Los Angeles Kings this season at a .922 in 16 appearances and he even had his best goal against average (2.17) in 10 games played or more of his career.

Compared to the time Enroth split time with the Buffalo Sabres and the Dallas Stars in 2014-2015 when he had a 18-26-0-2 record in 50 games played with a .904 SV% and 3.07 GAA, he’s a changed goaltender when he has 1) a defense in front of him and 2) a backup role that limits him to around 20 games a season. The 2014-2015 season was his worst campaign since his first career NHL start in the 2009-2010 season, when he debuted his NHL career with a .892 SV% and a 4.12 GAA.

The moral here is that Enroth is better than most people give him credit for, however, many still question his stature in a 6′ by 4′ net. And with smaller pads coming to the league, his play is bound to be affected by that. But alas, the old days of 3.00 GAA and .800 SV%’s being tremendous might finally return if you like offense. We’ve come to know low 2.00 and high 1.00 GAA’s as standard, when in actuality, pretty much any goalie under a 3.00 is better than you would think.

Again, it all boils down to the role of the goalie and how much usage they get. Another season like this season for Enroth would be respectable if he continues to be a top-notch backup that plays in anywhere from 20 to 25 games a year.

3. G James Reimer (17-14-0-7, 2.31 GAA, .922 SV% with the Toronto Maple Leafs/San Jose Sharks)- $2.300 million cap hit, 27 years old

Don’t laugh, but James Reimer might finally be starting to turn the corner and become a good goaltender. In 40 games played with the Toronto Maple Leafs and the San Jose Sharks this year, he had a 17-14-0-7 record, 2.31 GAA and a .922 SV%. His GAA and SV% this year were both career bests in the most number of games he’s played in a single season.

Granted, his record could still use some room for improvement in the “wins” column, Reimer is ready to make a run at being a number one goalie on the right team. If Calgary tightens their defense and feels like making newly acquired goaltender, Brian Elliott, compete for his number one spot, similar to how he battled Jake Allen in St. Louis, then Reimer is their man.

Then again, they probably should stick with what they’ve got. But my point remains, James Reimer can be good after all. I’ve said it before, goalies are weird. In six NHL seasons, Reimer has had a goal against average of 3.10 or more three times, all with the lackluster Maple Leafs. Of note, his 2.31 GAA performance beat his 2.46 GAA in 2012-2013 when he played in 33 of the 48 game lockout shortened season.

Take it or leave it, Reimer is a solid choice for your net if you have the right guys in front of him. He might not be a starter (yet), but his skills can still be honed in before it’s too late. At only 27 years old, he likely has at least 10 more years of playing in front of him.

4. G Anton Khudobin (3-3-0-0, 2.69 GAA, .909 SV% with the Anaheim Ducks)- $2.250 million cap hit, 29 years old

Chalk Anton Khudobin up as another solid backup goaltender— if you have the right defense for him. He might not be stealing wins in the “wins” column, but Khudobin has shown flashes of quality stats in both goals against average and save percentage.

Last season, Khudobin made only nine appearances before the Anaheim Ducks settled on Frederik Andersen and John Gibson as their goaltending tandem. Of course, Andersen was traded to Toronto earlier this month and Gibson is now considered their number one guy, so why would they risk the chance of losing out on a decent backup when you consider their other option (they have none).

Khudobin’s 2013-2014 season campaign with the Carolina Hurricanes resulted in 36 games played with a .926 SV% and a 2.30 GAA. Since then he has not seen the same action or numbers, but there’s a good chance that with the right mix of players, Khudobin could bail a team out in a game or two and play as a backup in 20 to 25 games.

By now I’m sure you’ve recognized my trend. Backup goalies should only play 20 to 25 games, depending on who they are. If they prove more value to you, based on their performance, up their appearances to 30. But if you’re considering splitting time between your goalies, get two starters. Don’t waste your time mismanaging a position you can’t fully manage in net.

5. G Jonas Gustavsson (11-9-0-1, 2.72 GAA, .908 SV% with the Boston Bruins)- $700,000 cap hit, 31 years old

Before you start breaking out the jokes about Jonas Gustavsson, consider this; Gustavsson only has one losing season as a backup goaltender in seven seasons in the NHL since 2009-2010 with Toronto and stops with the Detroit Red Wings and Boston Bruins. His career save percentage has hovered right around .900 and he’s only had a season that ended with a GAA of more than 3.00 once (a 3.28 in 2009-2010).

When there’s not much else to choose from, sometimes it’s best to take a stab at someone who can hold you over for a year or two as a quality backup. He should play nowhere near 40 games, nor should he only play seven, as he’s done twice in his career, both with the Red Wings (once in the shortened 2012-2013 season and again in 2014-2015). Actually, you know what? His numbers don’t really show how much you should use him one way or another.

I’ll admit, I was scratching for a fifth goaltender to include in my top-5 pending UFA goalies (no offense to Gustavsson). The fact of the matter is that the talent pool in the crease is extremely thin this offseason, so it’s best to just get what you’re money can buy to hold you over without overpaying and/or develop your guys in the system.

Honorable Mentions

G Ben Scrivens (5-8-0-0, 3.07 GAA, .906 SV% with the Montreal Canadiens)- $2.300 million cap hit, 29 years old

Ben Scrivens has never had a GAA less than 2.55— and that was when he split the 2013-2014 season with Los Angeles and the Edmonton Oilers. So that pretty much explains everything, given that he’s also played for Toronto and most recently Montreal in his career that spans all the way back to the 2011-2012 season.

He’s certainly not a starter and he’s definitely not worth $2.300 million as a back up, but if there’s no one else left, he’s going to be paid whatever amount of money to stand in the net for some team (like what Montreal did before they had Mike Condon take the brunt of the work and handle it as well he could with what little the Canadiens had going for them while Carey Price was hurt).

G Karri Ramo (17-18-0-1, 2.63 GAA, .909 SV% with the Calgary Flames)- $3.800 million cap hit, 29 years old

It appears the Calgary Flames are ready to throw in the towel on trying to develop the once considered top prospect of the Tampa Bay Lightning. In six NHL seasons, broken up by a stint in the KHL, Ramo has never had a season with a GAA better than 2.60 or a SV% better than .912.

It’s not the save percentage that bothers me, but rather, it’s that goals against average that’s a little concerning for any team that chooses to sign a goalie that made 37 appearances this season and surmounted a 2.63 GAA and a .909 SV%. Perhaps there’s one more shot left for Ramo, but at whatever price is under a million dollars and for a backup role. Again, if you had to, he’s someone to take in free agency over whatever might be left for a year.

G Anders Lindback (5-7-0-1, 3.11 GAA, .894 SV% Arizona Coyotes- $875,000 cap hit, 27 years old

In 2011-2012, Anders Lindback proved he could be a decent backup with a 16 game performance that resulted in a career best 2.42 GAA and a .912 SV% that season, despite a 5-8-0 record.

When he was with the Nashville Predators, he had blue liners in front of him to prevent chances and Pekka Rinne to play more than the majority of the games of the season. Lindback’s bounced all around the league and might have settled in with the Arizona Coyotes if it weren’t for Louis Domingue as an up and comer for the Coyotes. For a low-risk, high reward opportunity, why not take a 27 year old backup goaltender for a year or two and see if he can improve with a better team in front of him?

June 30, 2016