Tag: Boston Bruins

  • Florida Panthers 2018-19 Season Preview

    Florida_Panthers_logo_2016

    Florida Panthers

    44-30-8, 96 points, 4th in the Atlantic Division

    Additions: F Mike Hoffman (acquired from SJ), G Michael Hutchinson, D Jacob MacDonald, F Paul Thompson

    Subtractions: F Chase Balisy (signed with OTT), F Connor Brickley (signed with NSH), F Gregory Chase (signed with Wichita Thunder, ECHL), F Alexandre Grenier (signed with Laval Rocket, AHL), D Linus Hulstrom (signed, SHL), G Harri Sateri (signed with DET), D Edward Wittchow (signed, Liiga), F Curtis Valk (signed, KHL), F Radim Vrbata (retired)

    Still Unsigned: None

    Re-signed: F Jared McCann, D Alexander Petrovic, F Frank Vatrano, D MacKenzie Weegar

    Offseason Analysis: Despite losing their leading scorers from 2016-17 after trading Reilly Smith to the Vegas Golden Knights and leaving Jonathan Marchessault exposed in the expansion draft, the 2017-18 Florida Panthers almost made the playoffs. Almost.

    The 44-30-8 Panthers earned 96 points on the regular season and finished one-point shy of a wild card spot in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Florida tied the record set by the 2014-15 Boston Bruins for the team with the most regular season points to miss the postseason.

    General Manager Dale Tallon replaced Marchessault’s scoring ability this offseason by acquiring Mike Hoffman and a 2018 7th round pick (207th overall, Santtu Kinnunen) from the San Jose Sharks in exchange for a 2018 4th round pick (123rd overall, Jack Gorniak– drafted by MTL), a 2018 5th round pick (139th overall, Mikael Hakkarainen– drafted by CHI) and a 2019 2nd round pick. The Sharks subsequently flipped the fourth and fifth round picks at the draft.

    Hoffman had 22-34–56 totals in 82 games for the Ottawa Senators last season– his third straight season of 50 or more points– before it was revealed that his fiancée allegedly harassed Erik and Melinda Karlsson on social media.

    Ottawa General Manager Pierre Dorion specifically did not want to trade within the division, so he sent Hoffman to San Jose, where Sharks GM Doug Wilson was more than happy to flip the offensively gifted forward to the Panthers right back in– you guessed it– the Atlantic Division.

    Tallon’s not concerned about any potential locker room quarrels and Hoffman’s already texted all of his new teammates asking if they’d be okay with him wearing No. 68– last worn by Jaromir Jagr in a Panthers uniform.

    While Hoffman remains Tallon’s biggest prize and boost to Florida’s offense, Michael Hutchinson, 28, was brought in as a candidate for the backup goaltending job that is all but assured to be James Reimer‘s, unless Hutchinson can do anything about that.

    Yes, it was Reimer’s inability to remain a stable starting goaltender (2.99 goals against average and a .913 save percentage in 44 games played last season, 22-14-6 record) that pushed 39-year-old Roberto Luongo (2.47 GAA, .929 SV% in 35 GP, 18-11-2 record) into not only saving the season, but nearly bringing the Panthers into the playoffs on his back.

    The future of goaltending in Florida remains shrouded as Luongo is under contract at $4.533 million per season through 2021-22 (by then Luongo will be 43 at season’s end), Reimer, 30, is signed through 2020-21 at $3.400 million and Hutchinson (the youngest goaltender of the three) is on a one-year deal.

    But Florida’s top-six forward core is stacked with Evgenii Dadonov, Aleksander Barkov and Nick Bjugstad on the prospective first line and Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck and Hoffman filling out line two. That leaves February acquisition from the Bruins who’s looking to prove himself in a full-time role with the Panthers, Frank Vatrano on the third line.

    Right about where he was on Boston’s depth chart before their youth movement– yes a youth movement, despite Vatrano only being 24– forced him out of the lineup.

    Despite the existence of Aaron Ekblad and Keith Yandle on the blue line, Tallon still has work to do in finding another legitimate top-four defender, let alone fixing the drastic drop-off in talent from Ekblad and Yandle to MacKenzie Weegar and Ian McCoshen likely on the third pair.

    Then again, it’s really head coach Bob Boughner‘s job to figure out the right matchups to maximize potential and win games, so perhaps Michael Matheson or Mark Pysyk will be paired with better suitors as the season progresses.

    Overall, between the defense and goaltending, the Panthers have to improve their plus-two goal differential from 2017-18 to be a lot more in the black.

    Florida’s on the cusp of making the playoffs and turning a few heads, but they really aren’t built for a Cup run. They might be ahead of last season’s Eastern Conference wild card teams (the Philadelphia Flyers and New Jersey Devils) in both development and talent, but they don’t have all the pieces as thing stand to go against the powerhouses in the league– including their intrastate rival, the Tampa Bay Lightning.

    Offseason Grade: B-

    The Panthers didn’t yield a huge harvest in the offseason, but they certainly got the most out of filling their need for a top-six forward in Mike Hoffman on the second line.

    While Tallon was rumored to have had conversations with Montreal regarding Max Pacioretty (now traded to the Golden Knights) prior to acquiring Hoffman, Florida made the better move for their organization in that they didn’t have to give up any current or future roster pieces for the services of a goal-scorer.

    External factors might have driven Hoffman’s price down, but a prospective deal with the Canadiens for Pacioretty would have meant parting with a guy like Huberdeau and that cannot happen if the Panthers are serious about making a playoff run.

  • 2018-19 NHL Schedule Analysis

    It’s that time of year again – it’s time to analyze the NHL’s schedule for the upcoming season.

    As mentioned in last year’s edition of this post, these sorts of columns aren’t usually associated with the NHL due in large part to the fact that every team plays every other team at least twice – once at home and once on the road – for a fairly even strength of schedule for each and every club. However, there’s more than a few benchmarks on the league’s calendar, as well as some important stretches in each organization’s individual schedule, that makes each team’s campaign unique.

    In terms of how the schedule can be divided, the NHL’s offering for this upcoming season is very similar to the one we just completed in June in that it can be divided into fourths. One quarter of the season – approximately 21 games played for every team – is compacted between Opening Day (scheduled for October 3) and American Thanksgiving, the second of nine days this year without any regular season play.

    American Thanksgiving is not an arbitrarily picked date, mind you. Longtime fans of DtFR know there’s more than a few stat-heads in residence around here, and one of our favorites is that teams in playoff position by American Thanksgiving qualify for the postseason over 75 percent of the time. For those wondering, last season was a bit wild in regards to that statistic, as only 11 (instead of the usual 12) of the teams in playoff position by the Thanksgiving Break punched tickets to the dance.

    I’m not here to point fingers, but the St. Louis Blues were on top of the Western Conference when they sat down for their 2017 turkey feasts. Maybe the tryptophan stuck around for the remainder of the season?

    Excuse this Blues fan’s digressions.

    I usually consider the second and third quarters as one group (for those bad at math, that’s half the schedule), meaning Black Friday (November 23) to February 24 provides the main bulk of the season – approximately 41 games per team (funny how that works out to half an 82-game season, isn’t it?). Just like Thanksgiving, February 24 is not a date simply drawn out of a hat. Instead, that is the last day of play before February 25’s trade deadline.

    It is in this chunk of the season that a team truly proves itself in the face of a grinding schedule, as clubs will be playing at least three games a week for 13 weeks with only two major breaks – the standard three-day Christmas holiday and the All-Star Break/bye week (more on that in a moment).

    After the trade deadline, the NHL’s regular season schedule is hot and heavy until it comes to a close on April 6 (You hear that Boston? No extending the season this year!). With every club packing approximately 20 games into only 41 days, teams will effectively be in action every other day as they scramble to complete their playoff qualification or improve upon their seeding.

    Of course, there’s always a few wildcards that try to mess with this system. Take, for example, the Florida Panthers, who for the second season in a row have a backlogged schedule. With only 19 games on their calendar before Thanksgiving, the Panthers will play a whopping 22 games after the deadline to close out the season, meaning they just might complete they playoff push they came so close to pulling off last season.

    On the flip side, Nashville is a team that has potential to see a stellar position in the standings – say, possession of the Presidents’ Trophy like Tampa Bay had for much of the season – slip through its fingers at the bitter end. The Predators will lace up their skates only 18 times after the trade deadline for the fewest number of tilts in that time span of any club in the NHL.

    In terms of spacing their games evenly across the season, the teams with the most-balanced schedules include the Avalanche, Blackhawks, Bruins, Canadiens, Flyers, Lightning, Rangers, Senators, Sharks, Stars and Wild.


    This season marks the third season of bye weeks in the NHL, and the league is continuing to make adjustments on the breaks to maximize the benefits for players while minimizing the impact on its overall product.

    Year 1 featured byes scattered throughout the schedule from New Year’s all the way into March, creating confusion among fans and, presumably, opposing coaching staffs alike as we tried to keep track of which organizations had taken their breaks already and which were still playing on tired legs.

    To alleviate that concern, the NHL condensed all byes into the span of two weeks in January last season with relative success. Gone was the chance of catching a team that had played for four-straight months without much of a break, as well as the chance a team could enter the playoffs with any sniff of an edge due to enjoying their bye later in the season. However, what that design created was a month book-ended by the Christmas and All-Star Breaks that lacked much action, as it’s tough to have games taking place when literally half the league is resting.

    In my opinion, the league just might have found a winning formula in its third try. This year’s schedule sees every team’s bye week attached to the All-Star Weekend in San Jose. 21 clubs will enjoy the majority of their breaks following the festivities on January 24-27, while the remaining 10 will take their byes before the weekend or have it split on either side of the break.

    What results is a minimum of four days off for all players regardless of their participation in San Jose, plus the four days allocated to the All-Star events that only a handful of players will attend. In addition, by selecting a majority of the 10 teams that will take their byes before the All-Star Break from the Eastern Conference, the NHL can schedule those sides for enough games to fill the scheduling void since travel between those cities is far shorter than in the West.

    The players get their breaks and the NHL keeps hockey in arenas and on TV: I’d say everybody wins.


    My favorite days of the regular season are always when there’s 15 games on the schedule, leaving only one team inactive. I guess that means I’ll have to do my Christmas shopping on a different day, because the first of those dates is November 23 – right after American Thanksgiving.

    Unfortunately for Kings fans, their favorite club will be left out in the cold that day (who am I kidding, is there ever a cold day in Los Angeles?), but they’ll get to participate in December 29’s loaded schedule at the expense of Columbus.

    Finally, the last 15-game day of the calendar is on April 6 – the final day of the regular season. Just like the Kings were the first team to be absent on a slammed schedule, the Ducks will be the odd team out, as their 82nd and final game of the regular season will take place the day before against Los Angeles at Honda Center.

    ANAHEIM DUCKS – eliminated in First Round, 101 points

    It’s hard to tell: did the Ducks have the worst road record of any 2018 Pacific Division playoff team because of all their injuries, or because their style of play is on the verge of extinction in the NHL’s current era of speed and skill?

    I have a sneaking suspicion we’ll know soon enough, as four of Anaheim’s first six games are away from Honda Center. Should the Ducks struggle in Glendale against the potentially up-and-coming Coyotes in Game 2 of the regular season on October 6, there just might be cause for concern in Orange County.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Six games in 13 days (December 15-27)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Six games in 14 days (December 29-January 11)

    BYE WEEK: January 24-February 1 (nine days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at Colorado, vs. Florida, vs. Winnipeg, vs. San Jose, at Los Angeles, at Vancouver, at Calgary, at Edmonton, vs. Calgary, vs. Los Angeles

    ARIZONA COYOTES – 29th, 70 points

    Going 0-10-1 in your opening 11 games is going to have a majorly detrimental effect on more than your overall record, so it’s no surprise the Coyotes ended the season with the worst home and road records of any club in the Western Conference. However, Arizona posted an 11-7-2 record in its last 20 games to close the campaign, so perhaps the Yotes aren’t as far off the mark as they seem on the surface.

    Just like last season, Arizona’s first 11 games could answer a lot of questions about this organization moving forward, as the Coyotes have drawn a balanced schedule to open their season. Six of their first 11 opponents qualified for the playoffs last season (including Winnipeg [Oct. 20] and the Lightning [Oct. 27]), but almost all of the other five were nowhere close to the playoff bubble (Dallas [Oct. 4] was closest, but still missed the postseason by three points). Now, the Coyotes don’t necessarily have to have a winning record by the time October is through, but at least a .500 record would be reason enough to begin believing in this squad.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Six games in 17 days (January 20-February 5)

    BYE WEEK: January 24-February 1 (nine days)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Seven games in 14 days (February 24-March 9)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at Tampa Bay, at Florida, at New Jersey, at NY Islanders, vs. Chicago, at Colorado, vs. Minnesota, vs. Los Angeles, at Vegas, vs. Winnipeg

    BOSTON BRUINS – eliminated in Second Round, 112 points

    Known for its brutal winters and Nor’easters, few look forward to making the trip to Boston during the wintertime. Count hockey players in particular among the professionals unexcited about a visit to New England, as TD Garden was home to the best home team in the Atlantic Division.

    The Bruins fell just one point short of claiming the Eastern Conference crown last regular season, but they’ll have a chance to take an early lead this year when they open the season with eight-straight games against teams that failed to miss the playoffs. After visiting Washington D.C. for the Capitals’ banner raising ceremony on October 3, Boston will head to Buffalo (Oct. 4) before returning home to host the Senators (Oct. 8), Oilers (Oct. 11) and Red Wings (Oct. 13). Then, they’re off to Canada, taking on Calgary (Oct. 17), Edmonton (Oct. 18), Vancouver (Oct. 20) and Ottawa (Oct. 23) before returning home.

    BYE WEEK: January 20-28 (nine days)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Five games in nine days (February 15-23)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Six games in 12 days (February 26-March 9)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at NY Islanders, at New Jersey, at Florida, at Tampa Bay, vs. NY Rangers, vs. Florida, at Detroit, at Columbus, at Minnesota, vs. Tampa Bay

    BUFFALO SABRES – 31st, 62 points

    Is it a surprise that the worst home team of the NHL ended up being the worst team at the end of the season? KeyBank Center was not a friendly place for the Sabres last year, but that’s sure to change with first-overall draft pick D Rasmus Dahlin joining the club to excite the loyal Buffalo fans.

    Surely to the surprise of many, the Sabres did not finish the 2017-18 season with the worst road record in the league (that belonged to division rival Montréal). 14-20-7 away from home is far from pretty, but is is certainly something to build off of as Buffalo tries to return to the postseason for the first time in eight years.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Five games in 17 days (January 14-30)

    BYE WEEK: January 19-28 (10 days)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Seven games in 15 days (February 1-15)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. Toronto, at Montréal, at New Jersey, at Ottawa, vs. Detroit, at NY Islanders, vs. Columbus, vs. Nashville, vs. Ottawa, at Detroit

    CALGARY FLAMES – 20th, 84 points

    Teams with outstanding road records in the regular season are usually pretty dangerous in the postseason – but only if they qualify. Enter the curious case of the Calgary Flames last season, as they tied St. Louis for the honor of Best Road Team among those that failed to qualify for the playoffs with a 20-15-6 mark away from the Saddledome.

    If new Head Coach Bill Peters can maintain that success in white, he’ll need to make sure his troops are in tip-top shape at the start of the New Year when the Flames begin their longest home stand. During that extended stay in Alberta, Calgary will host tough competition of the likes of the Avalanche (Jan. 9) and Panthers (Jan. 11), as well as the improving Coyotes (Jan. 13) and Sabres (Jan. 16).

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Five games in 10 days (January 9-18)

    BYE WEEK: January 23-31 (nine days)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Four games in eight days (February 9-16)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. Columbus, vs. Ottawa, at Vancouver, vs. Los Angeles, vs. Dallas, vs. Anaheim, at San Jose, at Los Angeles, at Anaheim, vs. Edmonton

    CAROLINA HURRICANES – 21st, 83 points

    Upon first glance at their 36-35-11 record, you might think you would want the Hurricanes to be traveling to your favorite team’s arena in hopes of them earning two points. However, just the opposite was true, as the Canes tied Florida for the best road record of any Eastern Conference club to miss the postseason.

    With that in mind, Metropolitan rivals Pittsburgh (Feb. 5) and New Jersey (Feb. 10) cannot afford to rest on their laurels when Carolina takes to its longest road trip of the season just after the bye week, as the Hurricanes are going to be more than eager to defend their Road Warrior title.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Six games in 14 days (November 10-23)

    BYE WEEK: January 24-31 (eight days)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Five games in eight days (February 5-12)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Minnesota, vs. Montréal, at Washington, vs. Washington, vs. Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh, at Toronto, vs. New Jersey, at Philadelphia

    CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS – 25th, 76 points

    My, how the mighty have fallen. After winning its most recent Stanley Cup only three years ago, Chicago took a massive tumble last season to end up in last place in the Central Division, only six points removed from the bottom of the Western Conference. To add insult to injury, the Hawks’ 18-18-5 record at home and 15-21-5 record on the road qualified them for the division’s worst in both categories.

    Playoff teams take care of business at home, so that is where the Blackhawks should focus most of their energy at the start of the season. It won’t take United Center very long to spring back to life if the Hawks can earn at least 10 points on home ice in October – an easy task considering four of their seven visiting opponents that month failed to qualify for the playoffs last season.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Four games in seven days (December 12-18)

    BYE WEEK: January 23-31 (nine days)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Three games in five days – 3x (February 1-5; February 27-March 3; March 26-30)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. Philadelphia, at Colorado, vs. Colorado, at Arizona, at San Jose, at Los Angeles, vs. Winnipeg, vs. St. Louis, vs. Dallas, at Nashville

    COLORADO AVALANCHE – eliminated in first round, 95 points

    This might be intrinsic of any 16 seed, but the Avs had the worst home record of any Central Division playoff team and the worst road record of all playoff teams.

    Excitement in Denver for the Avalanche is growing by the minute, so I think it’s a safe assumption that Colorado will improve on its 28-11-2 mark at Pepsi Center this season. However, it’s the Avs’ 15-19-7 away record that I’m most concerned with, and they’ll get a nice, balanced road trip in January to work out the kinks in their white sweaters. That road swing starts in Winnipeg with a tough match against the Jets (Jan. 8), followed by two softer tilts against the Flames (Jan. 9) and Canadiens (Jan. 12). The intensity gets ratcheted up again with a stop in Toronto (Jan. 14) before culminating with a visit to Ottawa (Jan. 16). If Colorado can come home with at least seven points from that Canadian swing, it will be more than set up for another playoff appearance.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Five games in nine days (January 8-16)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Five games in 18 days (January 19-February 5)

    BYE WEEK: January 24-February 1 (nine days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at Minnesota, at Dallas, vs. Chicago, at Chicago, vs. Vegas, vs. Arizona, at St. Louis, vs. Edmonton, vs. Winnipeg, at San Jose

    COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS – eliminated in first round, 97 points

    A 2-0 advantage heading back to Nationwide Arena wasn’t enough to get the Blue Jackets their first playoff series victory, so it’s back to the drawing board again this season.

    Going off last year’s table, the toughest stretch in Columbus’ schedule is surely its six-game run leading up to the Christmas break. The Jackets host the Kings (Dec. 13), Ducks (Dec. 15), Golden Knights (Dec. 17) and Devils (Dec. 20) before heading east to take on Philadelphia (Dec. 22) and New Jersey (Dec. 23). Since those last three matchups are in the division, they’re obviously more important, but if Columbus is as good as I think it is, it should come away with at least eight points over that stretch.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Six games in 13 days (December 8-20)

    BYE WEEK: January 20-28 (nine days)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Four games in nine days (March 16-24)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at Calgary, at Edmonton, at Vancouver, vs. NY Islanders, vs. Montréal, at Nashville, at Buffalo, vs. Boston, at NY Rangers, at Ottawa

    DALLAS STARS – 19th, 92 points

    Dallas’ 26-12-3 home record tied with Columbus for the 13th-best home mark in the NHL last season, yet the Stars failed to qualify for the postseason (in fact, the Stars had the best home record of any Western Conference club to miss the playoffs).

    That’s what draws me to the Stars’ Halloween road trip throughout the Eastern Conference. If American Airlines Center is going to maintain its status as one of the tougher places to play in this league, the Stars are going to need to expel some ghosts and improve on their road effort if they want to extend their season beyond 82 games.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Six games in 10 days (October 28-November 6)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Six games in 21 days (January 12-February 1)

    BYE WEEK: January 20-29 (10 days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. Florida, vs. Colorado, vs. Pittsburgh, at Winnipeg, at Calgary, at Edmonton, at Vancouver, vs. Philadelphia, at Chicago, vs. Minnesota

    DETROIT RED WINGS – 27th, 73 points

    How nice is it that the league is letting the W Filip Zadina Era officially get underway with his NHL debut taking place at home? That game might be against a solid Blue Jackets team, but there shouldn’t be an empty seat in Little Caesars Arena on October 4 in anticipation of seeing what this kid is capable of.

    Unfortunately for the rebuilding Red Wings, there’s 81 more games remaining on their schedule that might not be met with quite the same fanfare. Even if Detroit is still in contention late in the season, it’ll be hard pressed to make up any ground in the standings as six of its last 10 games – including five straight – are on the road.

    BYE WEEK: January 23-31 (nine days)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Five games in 10 days (February 17-26)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Five games in 10 days (March 19-28)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at NY Rangers, at St. Louis, at Vegas, at San Jose, at Buffalo, vs. New Jersey, vs. Boston, vs. Pittsburgh, at Pittsburgh, vs. Buffalo

    EDMONTON OILERS – 23rd, 78 points

    With one of, if not the best player in the game in C Connor McDavid on their team, the Oilers surely have to be better than last season, right? If that is the case, Edmonton’s comeback story will find an interesting start when it squares off against New Jersey at Sweden’s Scandinavium – the home nation of LW Pontus Aberg, D Oscar Klefbom, D Adam Larsson and RW Jesse Puljujarvi – on October 6.

    However, the point of the Oilers’ schedule I’m most interested in is the seven games leading up to their bye week. All seven of those tilts will be against clubs that missed the playoffs last year, with all but one taking place at Rogers Place where the Oil were the best home team in the Pacific Division that failed to qualify for the postseason. If Edmonton can’t capitalize on a juicy stretch like that, this team is beyond hope.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Five games in 14 days (December 18-31)

    BYE WEEK: January 23-February 1 (10 days)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Five games in eight days (February 25-March 4)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at St. Louis, vs. Columbus, vs. Ottawa, vs. Los Angeles, vs. Dallas, vs. Anaheim, at Vegas, at Colorado, vs. San Jose, at Calgary

    FLORIDA PANTHERS – 16th, 96 points

    Though finishing in ninth place in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18 is usually reason enough to predict the Panthers could qualify for the playoffs this season, there’s even more evidence for those willing to dig a little bit deeper.

    The Devils (Nov. 26), Ducks (Nov. 28), Lightning (Dec. 1), Bruins (Dec. 4) and Avalanche (Dec. 6) may be coming to Sunrise during Florida’s longest home stand, but the fact that the Panthers were the NHL’s best home team to miss the playoffs will surely play in their favor. Similarly, there will be no fear in the Cats’ eyes when they travel to Philadelphia (Nov. 13), Columbus (Nov. 15) or Tampa Bay (Nov. 21) during their longest sabbatical from BB&T Center, as Florida also boasts (along with Carolina) the best road record of any Eastern Conference team to fail to qualify for the 2018 postseason.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Six games in 11 days (November 13-23)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Eight games in 15 days (November 24-December 8)

    BYE WEEK: January 22-31 (10 days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at Dallas, vs. Arizona, vs. Boston, at Toronto, at Montréal, at Ottawa, at Boston, vs. Washington, vs. NY Islanders, vs. New Jersey

    LOS ANGELES KINGS – eliminated in First Round, 98 points

    This year’s winner of the 2018-19 Bye Lottery is none other than the Kings of Tinseltown, who’ll get a whopping 11 days off the ice to rest and recuperate for the final 32 games of their regular season.

    Speaking of byes, keep an eye on the Kings in the days following American Thanksgiving. From November 24-December 4, they’ll play seven games, all of which are against competition who’s 2017-18 campaigns ended after 82 games last season. Making that slice of their schedule even sweeter, six of those sides are from within Los Angeles’ own division, meaning the Kings could start staking a real claim for the Pacific before Christmas if they take care of business – something they didn’t exactly do a good job of last season (the Kings had the worst home record of any playoff team last season).

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Seven games in 17 days (October 28-November 13)

    BYE WEEK: January 22-February 1 (11 days)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Six games in 10 days (February 2-11)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. San Jose, vs. Anaheim, at Calgary, at Edmonton, at Vancouver, vs. Chicago, vs. Calgary, at Arizona, at Anaheim, vs. Vegas

    MINNESOTA WILD – eliminated in First Round, 101 points

    Every team looks forward to its bye week, but none will need it as much as the Wild. The toughest stretch of Minnesota’s schedule is the six games leading up to the festivities in San Jose, as all of those matchups are against clubs that qualified for the playoffs a season ago.

    Minnesota starts that run in Philadelphia on January 14, followed only a day later by a visit to Xcel Energy Center by the Kings. After that, the Ducks (Jan. 17) and Blue Jackets (Jan. 19) both make trips north before the Wild head west to take on Vegas (Jan. 21) and Colorado (Jan. 23). It’s a tough run (especially the game against the Avs, against whom the Wild lost three of four games last season by a combined 19-4 score), but this Minnesota club is a veteran group that should rise to the occasion.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Seven games in 14 games (October 29-November 11)

    BYE WEEK: January 24-31 (eight days)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Five games in nine days (March 11-19)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. NY Islanders, vs. Colorado, at Washington, at Carolina, vs. Nashville, at Vegas, at Arizona, vs. Winnipeg, vs. Boston, at Dallas

    MONTRÉAL CANADIENS – 28th, 71 points

    The start of the season has a decent chance of being painful for the Habs (they open their campaign at Toronto [Oct. 3] and Pittsburgh [Oct. 6] before returning home to host the Kings [Oct. 11] and Penguins [Oct. 13]), but they’ll then have five-straight tilts against teams that missed the playoffs last season to warm up in anticipation of their first meeting of the year against arch-rival Boston (Oct. 27).

    If the Canadiens are going to improve this campaign, they’re going to need to figure out their road woes from a season ago. Finishing the season with a league-worst 11-26-4 record away from Bell Centre is simply not going to cut it – unless Montréal is planning on drafting D Bowen Byram, F Cole Caufield or C Jack Hughes with another lottery pick next summer.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Six games in 13 days (December 19-31)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Seven games in 22 days (January 19-February 9)

    BYE WEEK: January 24-February 1 (nine days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at Philadelphia, vs. NY Islanders, vs. Buffalo, at Carolina, vs. Florida, at Columbus, at Winnipeg, vs. Tampa Bay, at Washington, vs. Toronto

    NASHVILLE PREDATORS – Presidents’ Trophy winner, 117 points

    The Predators had their sights on something a little bit bigger than the Presidents’ Trophy last season (the Capitals know all about that plight), but their championship window is still wide open – just as long as they figure out when they want to hand the crease over to G Juuse Saros.

    Of the many games and series I’m looking forward to this season, few shine as bright as the Preds’ four showdowns with Winnipeg. Fortunately for us, the first of those is scheduled for October 11 – only nine days into the 2018-19 season – but the series will really heat up in March when the final two meetings take place in the span of 23 days. Though Winnipeg is known for its home-ice advantage, Nashville has full intentions of improving on a NHL-best of its own: a 25-9-7 road record.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Five games in nine days (November 25-December 3)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Six games in 10 days (January 4-13)

    BYE WEEK: January 24-31 (eight days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at San Jose, vs. Toronto, vs. Pittsburgh, at Winnipeg, at Minnesota, at Pittsburgh, vs. Columbus, at Buffalo, vs. Vancouver, vs. Chicago

    NEW JERSEY DEVILS – eliminated in First Round, 97 points

    Like a top-flight college football team, the Devils are playing a neutral-site game to open their regular season. However, what sets New Jersey apart from Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, USC and the likes is that its tilt against the Oilers will not take place in North America, but instead at Scandinavium in Gothenburg, Sweden (homeland of W Jesper Bratt and F Marcus Johansson).

    Talk about a truly impartial crowd.

    Few teams are going to be looking forward to the Christmas break quite like Jersey. Starting with a showdown in Washington on November 30, the Devils will begin a series of 10-straight games against teams that were in the playoffs last season – none more anticipated than a home rematch against the Lightning on December 3.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Four games in eight days (October 11-18)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Seven games in 13 days (October 30-November 11)

    BYE WEEK: January 20-27 (eight days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at Colorado, vs. Washington, vs. Boston, vs. Arizona, vs. Buffalo, at Detroit, vs. St. Louis, vs. NY Rangers, at Carolina, at Florida

    NEW YORK ISLANDERS – 22nd, 80 points

    As someone who’s never visited either Barclays Center or Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, I do not know if the Isles’ three homecoming games are going to be awesome because (a) the team returns to the building where they won four-straight Stanley Cups or (b) they’re playing in a building actually built for hockey, but I do know they’ll be awesome nonetheless.

    Another thing I know is that the Islanders’ longest home stand (five games, all of which will be contested in Brooklyn) will likely not be a fun one, as C Mathew Barzal‘s side will be hosting the Maple Leafs on February 28 (complete with former captain C John Tavares), Capitals (Mar. 1) and Flyers (Mar. 3) in the span of four days, all of which were playoff teams only a few months ago. That tough stretch will do the Islanders no favors as they try to shed the label of the Metropolitan Division’s worst home team.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Four games in eight days (October 13-20)

    BYE WEEK: January 23-31 (nine days)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Five games in eight days (February 26-March 5)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. Boston, at Montréal, at Philadelphia, vs. Arizona, at Columbus, at Winnipeg, vs. Buffalo, vs. Toronto, at Florida, at Washington

    NEW YORK RANGERS – 24th, 77 points

    There’s a few fans and analysts out there that think the Rangers can complete their rebuild and get right back into the playoffs this season. That remains to be seen, but we’ll have a pretty good idea of what to expect from these Blueshirts by the end of November.

    No, I’m not talking about the American Thanksgiving thing that was mentioned earlier – though that is mathematically backed. Instead, I offer this note: good teams can beat other good teams, but great teams almost always defeat the clubs they’re supposed to. In that strain, eight of New York’s last nine tilts before Thanksgiving are against sides that failed to make the playoffs last year, with a majority of those tilts taking place in the Big Apple. If the Rangers can earn at least 12 points during that run, I’ll buy in that this team is for real. For them to do that, they’ll need to improve on a Metropolitan Division-worst 13-23-5 record away from Madison Square Garden.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Four games in eight days – 2x (October 25-November 1; February 12-19)

    BYE WEEK: January 20-28 (nine days)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Five games in nine days (February 2-10)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. Detroit, at Toronto, vs. Pittsburgh, at Boston, vs. St. Louis, at Philadelphia, at New Jersey, vs. Ottawa, vs. Columbus, at Pittsburgh

    OTTAWA SENATORS – 30th, 62 points

    We shared our hot-like-a-Canadian-Tire-fire takes in the season previews earlier this summer, but I always have my concerns about a team enjoying its longest home stand before October even comes to a close. That means much of the Senators’ travels will be condensed into six months without the opportunity for an extended series of nights sleeping in their own homes.

    If Ottawa can, by some unpredictable act of God, manage to get back on track this season, it has a very favorable schedule to close the campaign. Seven of its last 10 opponents failed to qualify for the playoffs last season, and the three that did all have to come to Canadian Tire Centre. If the Sens are within six points of a playoff spot by mid-March, they could be just the team to squeak into a fifth postseason berth in the last eight seasons.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Five games in 14 days (October 10-23)

    BYE WEEK: January 23-31 (nine days)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Four games in eight days (February 14-21)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at Vancouver, at Calgary, at Edmonton, vs. Buffalo, vs. Florida, vs. Toronto, vs. Tampa Bay, at NY Rangers, at Buffalo, vs. Columbus

    PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – eliminated in First Round, 98 points

    To all Flyers season ticket holders: consider grabbing a holiday ticket package to the 76ers this December, because you’re going to be hard pressed to watch much hockey at Wells Fargo Center that month. Of the 14 games Philadelphia will play in the final month of the year, a whopping 10 will be away from Broad Street.

    Making matters even more difficult, eight of those December games will be against clubs that qualified for the postseason last year, including two contests against division rival Columbus. By midnight of January 2 (the Flyers are in Nashville on New Year’s Day), we will surely know if this season’s Philadelphia club can build upon last year’s success. If last year’s campaign is any indication, these Flyers should return to the City of Brotherly Love in good shape, as they had the best road record of any team in the Metropolitan Division last season.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Five games in 10 days – 2x (November 8-17; February 2-11)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Five games in 10 days (December 23-January 1)

    BYE WEEK: January 20-27 (eight days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. Montréal, at Chicago, vs. NY Islanders, at Washington, vs. Toronto, at Carolina, vs. NY Rangers, at Dallas, at St. Louis, vs. Carolina

    PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – eliminated in Second Round, 100 points

    Last season, Penguins fans bemoaned the number of back-to-back games on their favorite club’s schedule. The NHL must have heard those complaints, because there’s only 11 instances of that occurring this season, the first of which isn’t until November 23 (at Boston) and 24 (vs. Columbus) – the weekend following American Thanksgiving when every team but Minnesota and Ottawa plays two games in three days.

    However, what Pittsburgh got in fewer back-to-backs, it gave up in home stands. The most consecutive home games the Pens will play this season is three, which they do a whopping six times in a 41-game home schedule at the toughest arena in the Eastern Conference (at least according to the Pens’ home record last season). That’ll lead to a lot of plane rides and hotel stays, which could wear on the squad as the season progresses.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Three games in eight days (October 4-11)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Five games in nine days (January 11-19)

    BYE WEEK: January 20-27 (eight days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. Philadelphia, at Carolina, at Nashville, at Dallas, at NY Rangers, vs. Nashville, vs. Carolina, at Detroit, vs. Detroit, vs. NY Rangers

    SAN JOSE SHARKS – eliminated in Second Round, 100 points

    Good luck finding a more balanced schedule in the Pacific Division, if not the entire NHL. The Sharks have two five-game road trips to go with their six-game home stand, and it’s rare that they have only a one-off stay at SAP Center. That means the Sharks should spend more nights in their own beds than other clubs, which will surely pay dividends later in the season when other teams are getting tired after a full season of play.

    Based on last year’s standings, one of the toughest stretches of San Jose’s schedule looks like it will occur in mid-March, as the Sharks will host the Predators (Mar. 16) and Golden Knights (Mar. 18) before heading south to take on their California brethren on back-to-back days (Mar. 21 and 22). With that in mind, I’d expect San Jose to be in the mix for its seventh Pacific Division title and maybe, just maybe, a shot at the top seed in the Western Conference.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Five games in 10 days (October 5-14)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Six games in 13 days (November 11-23)

    BYE WEEK: January 23-February 1 (10 days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. Vegas, at Los Angeles, at Anaheim, vs. Detroit, vs. Chicago, vs. Vegas, vs. Calgary, at Vancouver, at Edmonton, vs. Colorado

    ST. LOUIS BLUES – 18th, 94 points

    One of the most striking things about the Blues’ schedule is that, of the five times they play Chicago all season, three of those showdowns are scheduled in October. If that doesn’t get F Ryan O’Reilly excited to play for the Notes, I don’t know what will.

    Undoubtedly, one of the most important six-game stretches in St. Louis’ schedule occurs around American Thanksgiving, as the Blues will square off with five of last season’s Western Conference playoff teams, including a home-and-home series with the Predators on Thanksgiving Eve and Black Friday. For the Blues’ sake, hopefully G Jake Allen will choose any other time of the season for his annual month-long meltdown.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Seven games in 18 days (October 25-November 11)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Five games in 18 days (January 21-February 7)

    BYE WEEK: January 24-February 1 (nine days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. Edmonton, vs. Detroit, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Vegas, at NY Rangers, at New Jersey, vs. Colorado, at Chicago, vs. Philadelphia, vs. Vancouver

    TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Prince of Wales Trophy runner-up, 113 points

    There’s no way to start a campaign quite like an extended home stand, and that’s just what the Lightning have the privilege of this season. However, the Bolts can’t afford to get too comfortable (even if the toughest competition they’ll face during that home stay is Columbus on Oct. 13), as they’ll immediately embark on their longest road trip (a tour of the Western Conference) after a division tilt against the Red Wings (Oct. 18). Fortunately, they boasted the Eastern Conference’s best road record last season, so that surely won’t be a problem for them.

    Coincidentally, we can combine a Californian road trip and the Blue Jackets to find the toughest stretch of Tampa Bay’s schedule – at least in terms of last season’s standings. The Bolts will head to Orange County for a New Year’s Eve showdown against the Ducks, followed three days later by a Tinseltown tilt and a jaunt up to San Jose on January 5. When C Steven Stamkos and co. return to the friendly confines of Amalie Arena on January 8, Columbus will be waiting for them to cap a four-game streak against playoff teams from a season ago – the longest such run on Tampa’s schedule.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Five games in 13 days (October 6-18)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Five games in eight days (October 20-27)

    BYE WEEK: January 20-29 (10 days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: vs. Arizona, at Washington, at Carolina, at St. Louis, vs. Boston, vs. Washington, at Ottawa, at Montréal, at Toronto, at Boston

    TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – eliminated in First Round, 105 points

    The Maple Leafs were good before Tavares showed up, but now Torontonians have Stanley Cups dancing in their dreams. We’ll have a discussion about the Leafs’ chances in their season preview later this summer (spoiler: that defense still hasn’t been fixed), but first it’ll be worth mentioning that they seem to have a balanced schedule in front of them.

    Toronto gets a nice and easy initiation into its 2018-19 campaign by playing its first five games against clubs that failed to qualify for the 2018 postseason, but the pedal hits the metal on October 13 when five of the Maple Leafs’ next six opponents finished in the NHL’s Sweet 16. In fact, from Opening Day until American Thanksgiving, just under 60 percent of Toronto’s first 22 games will be against 2018 Stanley Cup Playoff teams, meaning the Leafs will need to be ready right out of the gate if they want to avoid playing catch-up in the standings for the remainder of the regular season.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Four games in 10 days (December 29-January 7)

    BYE WEEK: January 24-31 (eight days)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Six games in 11 days (February 9-19)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at Nashville, at Buffalo, vs. NY Rangers, vs. Florida, at Philadelphia, at Ottawa, at NY Islanders, vs. Carolina, vs. Tampa Bay, at Montréal

    VANCOUVER CANUCKS – 26th, 73 points

    With RW Brock Boeser and C Bo Horvat already in Vancouver and F Elias Pettersson champing at the bit to fulfill the Canucks’ Swedish quota, it’s hard to believe British Columbia’s NHL representative can remain at the bottom of the table for many more seasons.

    Pretending, if only for a moment, that this is the year the Canucks start their upward climb, their seven-game home stand that effectively closes the season (Games 81 and 82 are in Nashville [Apr. 4] and St. Louis [Apr. 6]) will play a major role in determining their postseason fate. That series starts slow with visits from the Senators (Mar. 20) and Flames (Mar. 23), but picks up some real steam when Columbus (Mar. 24), Anaheim (Mar. 26), Los Angeles (Mar. 28), Dallas (Mar. 30) and San Jose (Apr. 2) roll into town. Every point is precious that time of year, so the blue-and-green’s extended time in their own beds could provide just the edge they need to qualify for the playoffs for the second time in six seasons.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Six games in 13 days (October 6-18)

    BYE WEEK: January 24-February 1 (nine days)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Seven games in 14 days (March 20-April 2)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at Chicago, vs. Ottawa, vs. Calgary, vs. Columbus, vs. Anaheim, vs. Los Angeles, vs. Dallas, vs. San Jose, at Nashville, at St. Louis

    VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Stanley Cup runner-up, 109 points

    In their inaugural season, the Golden Knights got blessed with an unbelievable seven-game home stand to open T-Mobile Arena (the venue that proved to be the best home-ice advantage in the Pacific Division). It looks like it’s time for the NHL to cash that $500 million check, as Vegas will embark on a five-game road trip only three days into the season after hosting the Flyers on October 4 (much to the chagrin of the rest of the league, Vegas finished last season tied with Los Angeles for the honor of “Best Visitor in the Pacific Division,” as they both had matching 22-14-5 records away from home).

    Speaking of five-game runs, an important one for Vegas will get underway on Valentine’s Day. The Golden Knights host Toronto that night, followed by a visit from the Predators two days later. Then Vegas is off to Colorado (Feb. 18) before returning home to host the Bruins (Feb. 20) and Jets (Feb. 22). That is Vegas’ longest stretch of consecutive games against 2018 playoff teams, and the fact that three of those clubs are Western Conference foes means postseason seeding could be on the line.

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Five games in eight days (October 6-13)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Five games in 13 days (October 16-28)

    BYE WEEK: January 24-31 (eight days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at San Jose, vs. Winnipeg, vs. Detroit, at St. Louis, at Colorado, vs. Minnesota, at San Jose, vs. Edmonton, vs. Arizona, at Los Angeles

    WASHINGTON CAPITALS – Stanley Cup champion, 105 points

    Winning a championship is hard, but successfully defending that title can be even harder. That’s the next challenge facing W Alex Ovechkin‘s crew, and we’ll see if they’re up to it after their first five games – all of which are against clubs that qualified for the playoffs last season, including rival Pittsburgh (Oct. 4) and the reigning Western Champion Golden Knights (Oct. 10).

    Even if the Caps don’t come out with a solid record after that series, they’ll still have more than enough time to whip their play under new Head Coach Todd Reirden into shape, as their next eight opponents all failed to extend their seasons beyond 82 tilts.

    BYE WEEK: January 24-31 (eight days)

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Six games in 11 days (February 1-11)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Six games in 12 days (February 12-23)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at New Jersey, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Minnesota, vs. Philadelphia, vs. Carolina, at Carolina, at Tampa Bay, at Florida, vs. Montréal, vs. NY Islanders

    WINNIPEG JETS – Campbell Bowl runner-up, 114 points

    RW Blake Wheeler and the Jets took a major step forward last season to advance all the way to the Western Conference Finals before falling in five games to Vegas. Expectations in Manitoba are going to be extremely high this campaign, but it’ll be interesting to see if this young roster can perform with a large target on its back.

    A good indication of how Winnipeg will perform under that pressure will come in the first month of play. After a nice, long home stand that ends with a major matchup against the Maple Leafs (Oct. 24) at the league’s most intimidating home arena, the Jets will take to the road for a back-to-back in Detroit (Oct. 26) and Toronto (Oct. 27), then fly to Finland (RW Patrik Laine‘s homeland) for another back-to-back against the up-and-coming Panthers (Nov. 1 and 2). If G Connor Hellebuyck and co. can come away with a winning record after that extended, 9328-mile (that’s 15 megameters, Canadians) road trip, I have no doubt these Jets will be challenging for their first division title since 2006-07’s Southeastern title as the Atlanta Thrashers.

    LONGEST HOME STAND: Six games in 11 days (October 14-24)

    LONGEST ROAD TRIP: Four games in 13 days (January 17-29)

    BYE WEEK: January 20-27 (eight days)

    LAST 10 GAMES: at Anaheim, at Vegas, vs. Nashville, vs. Dallas, vs. NY Islanders, vs. Montréal, at Chicago, at Minnesota, at Colorado, at Arizona

  • 2018-19 Projected Standings

    It’s still way too early to make these bold claims, but let’s do it anyway.

    Using marginal goals for and marginal goals against from the 2017-18 regular season– let’s assume there were no roster, coaching or front office changes this summer that would otherwise flip everything upside-down– here are expected points totals for all 31 National Hockey League teams for the 2018-19 season.

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. z-Tampa Bay Lightning, 114 points
    2. x-Boston Bruins, 113 points
    3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 108 points
    4. Florida Panthers, 92 points
    5. Detroit Red Wings, 77 points
    6. Montreal Canadiens, 71 points
    7. Ottawa Senators, 65 points
    8. Buffalo Sabres, 61 points

    Metropolitan Division

    1. y-Pittsburgh Penguins, 100 points
    2. x-Washington Capitals, 99 points
    3. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 96 points
    4. x-Philadelphia Flyers, 95 points
    5. x-New Jersey Devils, 93 points
    6. Carolina Hurricanes, 81 points
    7. New York Islanders, 79 points
    8. New York Rangers, 78 points

    2018-19 Eastern Conference Outlook

    Not much is different in the Atlantic Division heading into 2018-19.

    The top teams are the top teams, regardless of their additions (John Tavares to the Toronto Maple Leafs) or subtractions (uhh, James van Riemsdyk from the Maple Leafs?) and there’s going to be a little movement in the Metropolitan Division (most notably, a new division leader from 2017-18 to 2018-19).

    Carolina’s revamped defense and the Rangers post-trade deadline to present overhaul are wild cards to watch for any surprises in the standings.

    2017-18 Eastern Conference Expected Points Totals vs. (What Actually Happened)

    Atlantic Division

    1. y-Montreal Canadiens, 102 points (z-Tampa Bay Lightning, 113 points)
    2. x-Boston Bruins, 101 points (x-Boston Bruins, 112 points)
    3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 95 points (x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 105 points)
    4. x-Tampa Bay Lightning, 95 points (Florida Panthers, 96 points)
    5. Ottawa Senators, 91 points (Detroit Red Wings, 73 points)
    6. Florida Panthers, 81 points (Montreal Canadiens, 71 points)
    7. Detroit Red Wings, 77 points (Ottawa Senators, 67 points)
    8. Buffalo Sabres, 77 points (Buffalo Sabres, 62 points)

    What happened in the Atlantic? Injuries and age slowed the Canadiens way, way down, while Tampa reemerged as one of the top teams in the NHL, appearing in their third Eastern Conference Final in four years (despite losing to the Washington Capitals in seven games).

    Boston proved to be ahead of schedule in their plan, while the Leafs were right on track. Meanwhile, the floor fell out from underneath the Senators and a new head coach didn’t bring the expected progress in development for the Sabres.

    Florida turned a few heads, though ultimately proved to be a non-contender, missing the playoffs by a point (Columbus and New Jersey locked up the Eastern Conference wild cards with 97 points on the season), while Detroit fell within the expected margin of error (anywhere from 72-82 points on the season).

    Metropolitan Division

    1. p-Washington Capitals, 125 points (y-Washington Capitals, 105 points)
    2. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 114 points (x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 100 points)
    3. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 111 points (x-Philadelphia Flyers, 98 points)
    4. x-New York Rangers, 106 points (x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 97 points)
    5. New York Islanders, 91 points (x-New Jersey Devils, 97 points)
    6. Philadelphia Flyers, 85 points (Carolina Hurricanes, 83 points)
    7. Carolina Hurricanes, 83 points (New York Islanders, 80 points)
    8. New Jersey Devils, 67 points (New York Rangers, 77 points)

    What happened in the Metropolitan? Sometimes it’s not about the number of points, but rather, the divisional standing that matters.

    Washington may have surprised some experts by finishing 1st in their division in 2017-18 (then going on to win the Cup), but to us it wasn’t (the division win, not the Cup). The rest was a crapshoot. Three teams (Washington, Columbus and Pittsburgh) made the playoffs from our predictions heading into last season, while one (N.Y. Rangers) fell flat and hit the reset button.

    New Jersey had one of the biggest improvements from 2016-17 to 2017-18, while the Carolina Hurricanes hit the nail on the head (albeit one position higher than our prediction) with 83 points in 2017-18.

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. z-Winnipeg Jets, 114 points
    2. x-Nashville Predators, 113 points
    3. x-Minnesota Wild, 99 points
    4. x-Colorado Avalanche, 99 points
    5. Dallas Stars, 95 points
    6. St. Louis Blues, 93 points
    7. Chicago Blackhawks, 81 points

    Pacific Division

    1. y-Vegas Golden Knights, 108 points
    2. x-Los Angeles Kings, 105 points
    3. x-San Jose Sharks, 100 points
    4. x-Anaheim Ducks, 99 points
    5. Edmonton Oilers, 81 points
    6. Calgary Flames, 80 points
    7. Vancouver Canucks, 74 points
    8. Arizona Coyotes, 73 points

    2018-19 Western Conference Outlook

    Before the additions of Ryan O’Reilly (via trade), Tyler Bozak and Patrick Maroon (via free agency), the St. Louis Blues were destined to slide through another season of mediocrity. Now, they’re the most unpredictable team of the Central Division– and, yes, that’s even acknowledging what kind of season Jake Allen has in net.

    Allen could make or break St. Louis’s season, though Mike Yeo will have to balance Allen’s starting time with Chad Johnson‘s play as a solid backup, but enough about the Blues (for now).

    Everything else looks just the same in the Central with Colorado, Minnesota and Dallas as the teams that are most likely to change places and hit or miss one of the last playoff spots in the West.

    In the Pacific, the arms race for the top of the division rages on with the Golden Knights, Kings and Sharks auditioning for the role of top-dog and the Ducks bumbling their way into a wild card spot.

    It’s status quo in Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver, with the Arizona Coyotes entering the 2018-19 season as the biggest underdogs (hint, if they had played the way they did from February through April 2018 all season last season, they would be a lot higher up in these expected totals).

    2017-18 Western Conference Expected Points Totals vs. (What Actually Happened)

    Central Division

    1. z-Minnesota Wild, 115 points (p-Nashville Predators, 117 points)
    2. x-Chicago Blackhawks, 104 points (x-Winnipeg Jets, 114 points)
    3. x-St. Louis Blues, 99 points (x-Minnesota Wild, 101 points)
    4. x-Nashville Predators, 98 points (x-Colorado Avalanche, 95 points)
    5. Winnipeg Jets, 89 points (St. Louis Blues, 94 points)
    6. Dallas Stars, 76 points (Dallas Stars, 92 points)
    7. Colorado Avalanche, 47 points (Chicago Blackhawks, 76 points)

    What happened in the Central? Simply put, the stars aligned.

    The Blackhawks were kept far away from the 90-point plateau (and a playoff spot) by virtue of injuries to their starting goaltender, Corey Crawford, while the anemic offense of the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche was no more in 2017-18.

    Both are surprises– by definition, given expected points totals are driven by an equation that takes last season’s offense into account for the following season– but any inherent intuition would show that Colorado was destined to improve (by that much, perhaps not).

    St. Louis fell out of the race while Connor Hellebuyck backstopped the Winnipeg Jets to a 50-plus win season and the Wild surged quietly. The Stars were thought to be further off the path back to the playoffs than they turned out, but alas, Dallas was still 6th in the division at season’s end.

    Pacific Division

    1. y-Vegas Golden Knights, 106 points (y-Vegas Golden Knights, 109 points)
    2. x-Edmonton Oilers, 106 points (x-Anaheim Ducks, 101 points)
    3. x-Anaheim Ducks, 101 points (x-San Jose Sharks, 100 points)
    4. x- San Jose Sharks, 100 points (x-Los Angeles Kings, 98 points)
    5. Calgary Flames, 94 points (Calgary Flames, 84 points)
    6. Los Angeles Kings, 90 points (Edmonton Oilers, 78 points)
    7. Vancouver Canucks, 67 points (Vancouver Canucks, 73 points)
    8. Arizona Coyotes, 66 points (Arizona Coyotes, 70 points)

    What happened in the Pacific? One of the best things about making predictions using a set of data is the outliers that cause some people to doubt all of math in its entirety. Nothing is concrete in the world of projections and expectations. The 2017-18 Edmonton Oilers are a great example of that.

    Based on a spectacular breakout 2016-17 season, the Oilers should’ve done a lot more than *checks notes* leave Cam Talbot in the net for too many games, facing too many shots, while Milan Lucic exerts some type of energy in the midst of another 100-point season by Connor McDavid only to miss the playoffs (by a lot) and still receive enough pity votes for the Hart Memorial Trophy to finish 5th in the voting. Hmm.

    One player does not make a team. One expected points total before a single puck drops on the regular season does not guarantee anything.

    Meanwhile, Vegas surprised everyone, Anaheim and San Jose hit their expected points totals, Los Angeles was ahead of schedule (though the core is still aging), Calgary regressed and the rest was as expected (again, given the margin of error– about +/- 5 points).

  • Thursday’s Headlines That Didn’t Mention Erik Karlsson

    Here’s a roundup of some of the other things that were announced on Thursday from around the league, excluding jersey leaks and the Erik Karlsson trade.


    CJhyiLmKTyler Seguin is no longer a pending-UFA at the end of the season. Yes, take the 26-year-old’s name off the board of potential free agent forwards in July 2019 as Seguin and the Dallas Stars reached an eight-year extension.

    Seguin’s new eight-year, $78.800 million contract goes into effect for the 2019-20 season and carries an average annual value (AAV) of $8.500 million per season through 2026-27.

    The 6-foot-1, 200-pound native of Brampton, Ontario finished last season tied for seventh in the NHL with a career-high 40 goals and second on the Stars in points with 78 in 82 games. Seguin also led Dallas in power play goals with 14, which was also a new career-high and ranked second in the league in shots on goal (335).

    Since his rookie season of 2010-11 with the Boston Bruins, Seguin has amassed 229-276–505 totals in 590 career NHL games with the Bruins and Stars. He won the Cup with Boston in 2011 and returned to the Stanley Cup Final with Boston in 2013, losing in six games to the Chicago Blackhawks. Seguin was later traded that offseason on July 4, 2013 to Dallas along with Rich Peverley and Ryan Button in exchange for Loui Eriksson, Matt Fraser, Reilly Smith and Joe Morrow.

    In 49 career postseason games, Seguin has 21 points (seven goals, 14 assists) and is a five-time NHL All-Star. He has made one international appearance for Canada at the 2015 IIHF World Championship in Czech Republic.

    Days after I criticized Stars General Manager Jim Nill in my season preview for not getting an extension done yet, nor really negotiating since this year’s draft, this happened. You’re welcome, Dallas. Not to gloat or anything.


    Unknown-3The Arizona Coyotes announced a new captain Thursday afternoon for the first time since Shane Doan wore the “C” on his sweater.

    Swedish defender, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, 27, became just the fourth captain in Coyotes history with the announcement made by Arizona Coyotes President of Hockey Operations and General Manager John Chayka and Head Coach Rick Tocchet.

    Ekman-Larsson previously served as an alternate captain the last four seasons (2014-18) and joins Keith Tkachuk, Teppo Numminen and Doan as Arizona’s only captains since their relocation from Winnipeg in 1996.

    A native of Karlskrona, Sweden, the 6-foot-2, 200-pound defenseman is a two-time All-Star (2015 and 2018) with 102-188–290 totals in 576 career games for Arizona. He is six goals shy of tying Numminen for the most goals by a defenseman in franchise history (108) and holds the NHL record for the most game-winning goals in a season by a defenseman with eight in 2015-16.

    He was originally drafted by the Coyotes in the first round (6th overall) in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.


    download

    Not to be outdone, the Carolina Hurricanes also announced a new captain on Thursday, swapping the “C” on the front of the jerseys of Justin Faulk and Jordan Staal— last season’s co-captains– with alternate captain designations and placing the captaincy on the shoulders of 36-year-old, Justin Williams.

    Williams is in the final season of his current contract with the organization and is the 16th player to serve as captain in franchise history and just the eighth to do so since the Hartford Whalers relocated to Carolina. Head Coach, Rod Brind’Amour, made the annoncement.

    A native of Cobourg, Ontario, Williams scored 51 points (16 goals, 35 assists) in 82 games last season for the Hurricanes. The 6-foot-1, 188-pound right-wing is entering his 18th NHL season with 289-444–733 totals in 1,162 career games for the Philadelphia Flyers, Hurricanes, Los Angeles Kings and Washington Capitals. He’s a three-time Stanley Cup champion (Carolina in 2006 and Los Angeles in 2012 and 2014) and won the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2014 as MVP of the 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    Carolina also announced that 25-year-old center, Victor Rask, is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery on his right fourth and fifth fingers. Rask suffered a hand injury while slicing food in his kitchen and had 14-17–31 totals in 71 games last season for the Hurricanes.

    While Carolina’s roster was overhauled in the offseason, the lineup was going to be tweaked anyway. Now with Rask’s injury, Brind’Amour will have to make some added adjustments to his forward lines.


    Unknown-6If you were hoping for some good news after the Erik Karlsson trade in Ottawa, well, maybe stop reading right now.

    TVA Sports reporter, Renaud Lavoie, tweeted that 25-year-old forward, Jean-Gabriel Pageau could be out four to six months and need surgery to repair an Achilles’ tendon.

    Talk about injury to insult for Sens fans.

    Pageau had 14 goals and 15 assists for 29 points in 78 games played last season. The 5-foot-10, 184-pound native of Ottawa, Ontario has 59-71–130 totals in 329 career games with Ottawa since being drafted by the Senators in the fourth round (95th overall) of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.

  • DTFR Podcast #123- 2018-19 Atlantic Division Season Preview

    DTFR Podcast #123- 2018-19 Atlantic Division Season Preview

    Nick, Colby and Connor talk the Max Pacioretty trade, Eugene Melnyk’s latest antics, John Tortorella’s extension, Adam McQuaid and Steve Yzerman stepping down in Tampa. Also in this episode– DTFR’s official 2018-19 Atlantic Division preview.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify.

  • Dallas Stars 2018-19 Season Preview

    Unknown-2

    Dallas Stars

    42-32-8, 92 points, 6th in the Central Division

    Additions: Head Coach Jim Montgomery, F Blake Comeau, F Erik Condra, D Joel Hanley, G Anton Khudobin, F Michael Mersch, D Roman Polak

    Subtractions: Head Coach Ken Hitchcock (retired), D Andrew Bodnarchuk (signed, DEL), F Brian Flynn (signed with STL), D Dan Hamhuis (signed with NSH), G Mike McKenna (signed with OTT), F Curtis McKenzie (signed with VGK), D Greg Pateryn (signed with MIN), D Brent Regner (signed, Austria), F Antoine Roussel (signed with VAN)

    Still Unsigned: G Kari Lehtonen, D Andrew O’Brien, F Cole Ully

    Re-signed: G Philippe Desrosiers, F Jason Dickinson, F Remi Elie, D Dillon Heatherington, F Mattias Janmark, F Devin Shore, F Gemel Smith

    Offseason Analysis: After missing the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs by a few points, Ken Hitchcock finally hung up the pen and paper(?) behind the bench. Hitchcock’s one-year reunion with the Dallas Stars proved two things– that the Stars weren’t a playoff caliber roster in the long run and that Hitchcock’s coaching style had run its course in the contemporary NHL.

    Outside of John Klingberg and Marc Methot, Dallas’s defense didn’t scream high-caliber. Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov and Tyler Seguin alone couldn’t generate enough offense to ease the barrage of pucks Ben Bishop faced in net.

    Whatever the reasoning, the fact of the matter is the Stars didn’t have a complete team in 2017-18, so General Manager Jim Nill had some cracks to fix.

    First, Dallas brought in 49-year-old head coach, Jim Montgomery, out of the University of Denver and into the National Hockey League. Montgomery expects to bring a new-age pace to the Stars, but there’s always a catch– rookie NHL coaches rarely exceed expectations in their first season, especially if they’re coming from college hockey straight to the NHL level of the professional game.

    Second, Nill didn’t make any trades. Instead he opted to let Antoine Roussel and his 17 points in 73 games last season walk in free agency, along with Curtis McKenzie and other bottom-six role forwards. Also gone are Dan Hamhuis– once thought to be a steal from free agency not so long ago– and Greg Pateryn, who, after all things considered, played a durable bottom-pair worthy role on the Dallas blueline.

    Nill signed 32-year-old Roman Polak to a one-year, $1.300 million contract to appease veteran presence on the backend with a friendly short-term deal while the Stars look to implement Miro Heiskanen in the North American game.

    Blake Comeau, Erik Condra and Michael Mersch will all file down the line of bottom-six “glue guy” roles on the depth chart all the way to being a healthy scratch most nights– let alone emergency call-up go-tos.

    The fact of the matter is the Stars need to get younger and it could start with Heiskanen, but it should also include Jason Robertson among the forwards. Past that, there’s not much going on in the Big D.

    After Kari Lehtonen, 35, couldn’t hold his weight as a starter, Dallas brought in Ben Bishop– a surefire number one goalie– to lead them back to glory. Bishop’s year didn’t fully go as planned, but Lehtonen actually improved from 2016-17 to 2017-18 in his more limited role.

    Lehtonen’s 2.85 goals against average and .902 save percentage in 59 games played in 2016-17 dropped to a 2.56 GAA and rose to a .912 SV% in 37 appearances last season. The Atlanta Thrashers 2nd overall pick in the 2002 NHL Entry Draft rebounded quite nicely and is still unsigned.

    Meanwhile, Nill brought in Anton Khudobin, 32, most recently from the Boston Bruins on a two-year contract to become become Bishop’s backup. Khudobin’s can be streaky at times, but when he’s good, he’s great good. Just good.

    Case in point, Khudobin bounced back from a 2.64 GAA and .904 SV% in 16 appearances with the Bruins in 2016-17 while bouncing back-and-forth between Boston and Providence (AHL) to a 2.56 GAA and .913 SV% in 31 games last season with the Bruins.

    Khudobin’s GAA last season was the same as Lehtonen’s in six fewer games. He faced almost 100 fewer shots than Lehtonen and allowed seven fewer goals. His save percentage was .001% better than Lehtonen.

    If Nill’s getting really technical, he “improved” Dallas’s backup option. Sure he’s not paying a guy $5.900 million to play fewer than 40 games, but Khudobin’s making $2.500 million for… pretty much the same results if he’s playing well.

    If Lehtonen was going to re-sign, he surely was going to have to sign for much less than what he was making ($5.900 million) and wouldn’t have been able to capitalize as much as Khudobin did on his comeback (Khudobin more than doubled his salary from his last contract with Boston to his current one with Dallas).

    I mean, Lehtonen improved much like his former teammate with the Stars, Antti Niemi did, but without the immense failures in Pittsburgh and Florida before being picked up off waivers by the Montreal Canadiens.

    But enough about subprime goaltending, lack of offense and not enough drive from a mediocre defense outside of John Klingberg.

    The Stars aren’t on the rise and that should concern fans deeply.

    You see, there’s another guy wearing No. 91 in the NHL that’s a pending-UFA in July 2019 and nearly every armchair GM has already set their sights on him. His name is Tyler Seguin and he’s Dallas’s biggest star.

    After talking about an extension before the 2018 NHL Draft– conveniently held in Dallas– Seguin’s heard nothing from the Stars front office. Another season without a postseason might just be enough to push the 26-year-old center over the edge and into the waters of free agency next summer.

    Offseason Grade: D+

    There’s areas of concern that go further than just shaking things up behind the bench in Dallas. It’s not that Montgomery won’t be a great coach, but rather that Nill hasn’t pulled off the necessary moves with the roster to really set them over the bar and into the playoffs.

    Betting on other teams regressing to the mean, while counting on your stars to perform better than they did last season isn’t safe if you’re not actually improving. Plus there’s the whole “they might lose Tyler Seguin for nothing next offseason a la the New York Islanders and John Tavares“. First impressions for the future are everything, and Nill and the Stars aren’t sending the right one(s).

  • Analysis: McQuaid Trade Was Only a Matter of Time

    The Boston Bruins traded D Adam McQuaid to the New York Rangers in exchange for D Steven Kampfer, a 2019 4th round pick and a conditional 2019 7th round pick on Tuesday.

    It came with little surprise.

    Bruins General Manager Don Sweeney had recently remarked that he was comfortable with having eight defenders and looking forward to the new season, but with McQuaid sitting on the books at $2.750 million for the remainder of his contract– more than likely up on the 9th floor of TD Garden as a healthy scratch from night-to-night– a move was coming.

    Kampfer has one-year remaining on his contract at $650,000, leaving Boston with about $5.000 million in cap space for the 2018-19 season. That’s certainly plenty of room to make more moves as the trade deadline approaches in the new year and plenty of room to make a serious run at a top pending-UFA in July 2019– let alone cap room to re-sign Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, Danton Heinen and more.

    So basically, that was the whole point of a McQuaid trade. Be kind to an NHLer who will log minutes on the ice with a different team instead of the 9th floor, clear some cap room in the process, bump some younger guys up on the depth chart and get something in return (rather than let McQuaid go for nothing next July). Kampfer, in the meantime, will likely be sent to Boston’s AHL affiliate in Providence– only to be called up in the event of injuries or in case of emergency.

    Meanwhile, New York GM Jeff Gorton was able to shore up some veteran presence and valuable locker room intangibles with the addition of McQuaid.

    download

    McQuaid, 31, until now, spent his entire nine-year NHL career with Boston since being traded by the Columbus Blue Jackets on May 17, 2007 in exchange for a fifth round pick. That 5th round pick was subsequently traded to the Dallas Stars by the time draft day came around and was used to select Jamie Benn 129th overall.

    Originally drafted by Columbus in the second round (55th overall) of the 2005 NHL Entry Draft, McQuaid has 13-53–66 totals in 462 career NHL games. He broke into the NHL in the 2009-10 season with the Bruins after spending parts of three seasons with the Providence Bruins from 2007-10, appearing in 178 AHL games and amassing eight goals and 26 assists (34 points).

    The 6-foot-4, 212-pound defender has appeared in 68 postseason games with three goals and eight assists (11 points) in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. A 2011 Stanley Cup champion, McQuaid has had at least 100 hits in five of his nine NHL seasons and at least 100 blocked shots in four of his nine seasons.

    In 2017-18, he had one goal and three assists (four points) in 38 games for Boston. McQuaid was teammates with current Rangers blueliner, Marc Staal, for all four seasons of his Junior hockey career (2003-07) with the Sudbury Wolves in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL).Unknown-7

    Kampfer, 29, has appeared in 166 career NHL games for the Bruins, Minnesota Wild, Florida Panthers and New York Rangers. He has 10-16–26 totals and 82 penalty minutes in his career (2010-present).

    An Anaheim Ducks fourth round pick (93rd overall) in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, Kampfer was traded to Boston on March 2, 2010 in exchange for a conditional fourth round pick (which was flipped to the Carolina Hurricanes and used to select Justin Shugg).

    The 5-foot-11, 195-pound defenseman made his NHL debut with the Bruins on December 9, 2010 against the New York Islanders and appeared in 38 games with Boston in 2010-11 en route to their 2011 Stanley Cup victory. Kampfer had a career-high five goals and five assists (10 points) that season and had two assists in 10 games in 2011-12 before being traded to the Wild at the trade deadline in exchange for Greg Zanon.

    He went on to spend two seasons in the American Hockey League (AHL) before playing in 73 games with the Florida Panthers from 2014-16, then was traded (along with a conditional pick) to the Rangers on November 8, 2016 for Dylan McIlrath.

    In two seasons with New York (2016-18), Kampfer had one goal and two assists in 32 games. He has skated in 249 career AHL games with 27-81–108 totals and played four seasons of college hockey at the University of Michigan from 2006-10.

  • Long-Awaited Offseason Krug Thoughts

    It’s only taken me all offseason, but don’t trade Torey Krug.*

    *At least in a one-for-one with the Edmonton Oilers, anyway.

    There’s been plenty of talk on hockey Twitter among experts, recreational bloggers and fans alike surrounding Boston Bruins top-four defender, Torey Krug, and whether or not the 27-year-old blueliner should be considered an expendable asset for the right return.

    At some point this offseason, rumors swirled that Bruins General Manager Don Sweeney had been in contact with Oilers General Manager Peter Chiarelli with both GMs expressing desire for a defender.

    For starters, Sweeney and Chiarelli are friends.

    Sweeney worked under Chiarelli during Chiarelli’s tenure with Boston and, while it’s likely they talked at some point this offseason– as all friends do– to what extent they delved into their roster concerns, well, that’s not for me to say.

    But with rumors comes speculation on Twitter.

    Polls were created, people became enraged because people tweeted their two cents and… people tweeted. Never tweet.

    In the aftermath of the Krug Twitter War, let’s take one more sensible look at if Boston and Edmonton had worked out a deal this offseason– salary cap be damned.

    Krug notched a career-high 59 points in 76 games for the Bruins in 2017-18. He had eight more points last season than he did in 2016-17 (51 points in 81 games played) and improved his plus/minus from a minus-10 in 2016-17 to an even rating last season.

    There’s a couple of things to takeaway from that.

    First, Krug had 59 points (a career high) last season, which was only three fewer points in five more games played than one of the league’s best blueliners– Erik Karlsson— had in a down season.

    Yes, you read that right, Karlsson had 9-53–62 totals in 71 games for the Ottawa Senators in 2017-18, while Krug had 14-45–59 totals (76 GP) for Boston. Anytime a defender scores more than 10 goals, that’s something to celebrate– let alone when that player reaches a new career-high in scoring.

    And second, Krug’s mistakes are still noticeable.

    When a defenseman makes a mistake it’s usually easier to spot, because it leads directly to a goal against. Krug’s positioning hasn’t always been spot on, but he spent all of last season working with Brandon Carlo on Boston’s second defensive pairing– a season that Carlo is looking to learn from and move on from after failing to score a goal in his sophomore slump.

    Krug’s best career plus/minus (plus-18) came in 79 GP in the President’s Trophy winning 2013-14 season for the Bruins. Since then he’s slipped to plus-13 in 2014-15, plus-9 in 2015-16 and a minus-10 in 2016-17, before rebounding to breaking even in 2017-18.

    Now, I’ll fully acknowledge plus/minus does not tell the full story. Plus/minus alone does not take into account situations like being on the power play, penalty kill or even strength (Krug had 24 power play points last season– only one shy of his career-high 25 points on the power play in 2016-17). That’s where the argument for Corsi Relative, Corsi Close, Corsi Even and all that jazz comes in as another way to measure situational play, but I digress.

    Back to the Oilers for a moment.

    If Krug were to have been swapped in a one-for-one with an Edmonton defender, the Bruins would’ve taken a major step back.

    Boston doesn’t need a young defenseman approaching his prime– they’ve got Charlie McAvoy, Carlo, and Matt Grzelcyk already in those roles with Urho Vaakanainen, Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon (just to name a few) coming down the pipeline in the system.

    In other words, a hypothetical Krug for current-RFA, Darnell Nurse, deal wouldn’t look good. Especially when you look at the stats.

    In just 2017-18 alone, Krug’s 14-45–59 totals in 76 games decimate Nurse’s 6-20–26 totals in 82 games with the Oilers. While shutdown defenders are favorable for their defensive purposes, giving up 33 points from the backend for one player alone isn’t sound. Especially with Krug as Boston’s offensive defenseman centerpiece over the two-way skills of McAvoy.

    Sure, Nurse is only 23, but he needs a new contract as things stand right now with Boston looking at pay raises for both McAvoy (likely a hefty one) and Carlo in the summer of 2019. Then there’s that whole “already in his prime” thing going on with Krug. It’s perfectly fine to hold onto a defender in their prime into their early/mid-30s.

    What about Oscar Klefbom? Could the Bruins improve in a one-for-one involving Krug for him?

    Again, the answer is no.

    Klefbom, 25, is two-years younger than Krug (so that whole “already in his prime thing”, yeah, that’s not favoring Klefbom in this hypothetical) and had 5-16–21 totals in 66 games for the Oilers last season. He was also a minus-12, which was surprisingly worse than everyone’s favorite Chiarelli overvalued blueliner in Edmonton– Kris Russell.

    Russell was a minus-seven in 78 games and had, yep, 4-17–21 totals at 31-years-old.

    Sure, adding Klefbom (6’3″) in place of Krug (5’9″) adds height, but it hinders skill.

    There’s always that change of scenery argument, but there shouldn’t be anything attractive in Edmonton. Hard pass on any and all one-for-ones unless Connor McDavid is involved for some insane reason.

    And for the record, Chiarelli’s prized possession in his biggest one-for-one trade in Edmonton (Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson) had 4-9–13 totals in 63 games last season. Larsson’s only reached the 20-point plateau once in his career (24 points in 64 games for New Jersey in 2014-15). Ouch.

    If you’re thinking of trading Krug for any reason, don’t let it be in a one-for-one with the Oilers.

  • Edmonton Oilers 2018-19 Season Preview

    220px-Logo_Edmonton_Oilers.svg

    Edmonton Oilers

    36-40-6, 78 points, 6th in the Pacific Division

    Additions: F Kyle Brodziak, F Josh Currie, D Jason Garrison (signed to a PTO), D Kevin Gravel, G Hayden Hawkey (acquired from MTL), D Jakub Jerabek, F Tobias Rieder, F Scottie Upshall (signed to a PTO)

    Subtractions: D Yohann Auvitu (signed, KHL), G Laurent Brossoit (signed with WPG), F Braden Christoffer (signed with Bakersfield Condors, AHL), F Grayson Downing (signed with Colorado Eagles, AHL), G Nick Ellis (retired), D Mark Fayne (signed to a PTO with BOS), F Brian Ferlin (retired), F Roman Horak (signed, KHL), F/D Joey LaLeggia (signed with STL), F Iiro Pakarinen (signed, KHL), F Kyle Platzer (signed with Charlotte Checkers, AHL), D Dillon Simpson (signed with CBJ), F Anton Slepyshev (signed, KHL), F Nolan Vesey (traded to TOR),

    Still Unsigned: D Ben Betker, F Michael Cammalleri, D Darnell Nurse

    Re-signed: F Ryan Strome

    Offseason Analysis: The Edmonton Oilers put up 103 points on the board in 2016-17, General Manager Peter Chiarelli locked up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for $21 million a season combined.

    Then they fell. Hard.

    After making a return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2017 for the first time since losing in Game 7 of the 2006 Stanley Cup Final to the Carolina Hurricanes, the Oilers missed the postseason in 2017-18.

    Seventy-eight points. That’s not the worst, but it’s not great either. They weren’t even a bubble team. Edmonton finished 6th in the Pacific Division and they’re looking to climb before other teams climb over them– namely the Arizona Coyotes and their resurgence of youth.

    Milan Lucic‘s second season as an Oiler wasn’t as productive as his first. Down from 50 points (82 GP) in his first year in Edmonton, Lucic amassed 10-24–34 totals in 82 games last season. His size might read “protection for McDavid”, but his game was off– pretty far off with his worst plus/minus (minus-12) since entering the league in 2007-08.

    By default, thanks to snuggling up close to the salary cap, Chiarelli let many free agents walk. Anton Slepyshev was tendered a qualifying offer before the forward decided to return home to the KHL.

    Ryan Strome was re-signed on a friendly two-year, $6.200 million contract ($3.100 million per season), meanwhile Darnell Nurse remains unsigned.

    That’s right, 23-year-old restricted free agent defender, Darnell Nurse still doesn’t have a contract.

    It’s fair to assume that most top-4 defenders reaching their prime would earn somewhere around $4.000 million a season on their next contract– and that’s probably what’s holding things up in Edmonton. The Oilers don’t have that kind of money– at least, they don’t have anything more than that to offer.

    Nurse won’t attend training camp without a new deal signed, but it’s not Chiarelli’s first rodeo with an RFA holdout. There was Phil Kessel in Chiarelli’s early days as the Boston Bruins GM, then Torey Krug and Reilly Smith took until the eleventh hour to re-sign in Chiarelli’s final season with Boston.

    Of course, of those three aforementioned players, Kessel was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

    Rumors have swirled about Edmonton’s desire to move a defender, whether it’s Nurse, Oscar Klefbom or someone else. Given their cap situation, it’d make sense– especially as they added Kevin Gravel and 2018 Stanley Cup winner with the Washington Capitals Jakub Jerabek for depth and signed Jason Garrison to a PTO.

    Perhaps the Oilers’ emergency plan is staring us in the face? Then again, perhaps not. It’s hard to tell what the overall plan actually is in Edmonton, let alone what they’re going to do today or tomorrow.

    In 2016-17, the Oilers had a plus-35 goal differential. It was their first positive goal differential since their Cup run in 2006. Last season, they were a minus-29.

    A porous defense, lack of offensive depth past their first line and an over-reliance on starting netminder, Cam Talbot, added up to mediocrity.

    Whereas last season’s expectations were set higher given 2017’s playoff run, this season’s forecast for Edmonton is served with a slice of reality. It’s going to be another long season. There’s no other way around it until Chiarelli digs himself out of cap hell again.

    Offseason Grade: D+

    The Nurse situation remains unresolved as training camp is soon to get underway, but at least Edmonton gets the benefit of the doubt on letting poor performers walk this offseason.

    There’s only one problem– they didn’t do anything to bring better players in, nor does it look like head coach Todd McLellan‘s going to have any holes to fill with youth.

  • New York Rangers 2018-19 Season Preview

    download

    New York Rangers

    34-39-9, 77 points, 8th (last) in the Metropolitan Division

    Additions: D Fredrik Claesson, G Dustin Tokarski

    Subtractions: F John Albert (signed, DEL), F Paul Carey (signed with OTT), F Daniel Catenacci (signed, Austria), F David Desharnais (signed, KHL), F Carl Klingberg (signed, Switzerland), F Adam Tambellini (signed with OTT)

    Still Unsigned: G Ondrej Pavelec, D Ryan Sproul

    Re-signed: D Chris Bigras, F Steven Fogarty, D John Gilmour, F Kevin Hayes, F Cody McLeod, F Vladislav Namestnikov,  F Boo Nieves, D Rob O’Gara, D Brady Skjei, F Ryan Spooner, F Jimmy Vesey

    Offseason Analysis: New York Rangers General Manager Jeff Gorton had a plethora of restricted free agents to re-sign this offseason and he successfully pulled off every single one.

    Both Ryan Spooner and Vladislav Namestnikov are signed to matching two-year contracts worth $4.000 million per season. Kevin Hayes has a bridge deal that’s not too shabby either.

    At 26, Hayes signed a one-year, $5.175 million extension with a lot to prove– to himself and to the watchful eye of diehard Rangers fans. At least he’s ahead of Jimmy Vesey in the depth chart– who only managed one-point better than his rookie campaign in his sophomore season (28 points in 79 games last season versus 27 points in 80 GP in 2016-17).

    Gorton has bigger fish to fry this season as the Rangers re-tool on-the-fly.

    New York’s defense is young and susceptible to making errors as Brady Skjei, Rob O’Gara and perhaps even Ryan Lindgren in the near future come into their own. Of those three defenders, Skjei’s been in the Rangers system the longest– given both O’Gara and Lindgren were acquired from the Boston Bruins in separate trades last season.

    One season removed from the shutdown pairing of Marc Methot and Erik Karlsson in Ottawa, the Senators had another underrated good thing going in the pairing of Karlsson and Fredrik Claesson. But Sens GM Pierre Dorion moved on from the 25-year-old Claesson.

    That’s where Gorton and crew swooped in on a make or break one-year, $700,000 offer.

    Claesson has the potential to grow as an anchor in the defensive end while his teammates work the puck out of the zone. If nothing else, he has a lot to prove– along with his peers looking to follow the Bruins model of “rebuilding on-the-fly”.

    Trade expendable pieces (Nick Holden), part with assets (Rick Nash, J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh), insert who you envision as the new prototypical Rangers players (Spooner, Namestnikov, Lias Andersson and other prospects) and maybe– just maybe– New York can turn things around sooner than expected.

    How much longer does Henrik Lundqvist have to wait for another chance at his first Cup? Can he win it wearing a Blueshirts sweater? This is just pure speculation, as there’s nothing else to say about the Rangers.

    Just kidding.

    Dustin Tokarski could make a push for the backup role, but all roster decisions are up to first-year NHL head coach David Quinn.

    Quinn’s coming off of a five-season tenure with Boston University as the head coach of its men’s hockey program. During his time, Quinn brought the then Jack Eichel led Terriers all the way to the NCAA championship game– only to be defeated by the Providence College Friars in 2015.

    From 2013-18, Quinn amassed a 105-67-21 overall record at Boston University.

    Like Dallas Stars head coach Jim Montgomery, one would expect an initial struggle from coaching college hockey straight to the National Hockey League, but luckily for the Rangers the timing is right as they can afford a little learning curve during their restructuring.

    Are the Rangers a playoff team in 2018-19? No.

    Can they get back into a playoff spot in 2019-20? We’ll see, but it’s certainly plausible. The pieces are there and time will tell. First things first, they have to clean up last season’s minus-37 goal differential. You can’t win games if you allow more goals than you score.

    Offseason Grade: C

    Perhaps Gorton could’ve pulled off one more signing or one more trade this offseason, but he took care of most of his work by the trade deadline last season with 2018-19 in mind.

    Other than that, it’s been an average offseason for New York. Keep the new young core intact, re-sign their RFAs to quality bridge deals that might make for some tough decision making later or wizardry like that of the Tampa Bay Lightning nature in the salary cap era.