Tag Archives: Atlantic Division

Numbers Game: March to the Playoffs

First of all, it’s March, which means it’s officially the best month of the year, but not for any of the reasons you’re thinking. College basketball can stay on the back burner– especially when there’s playoff hockey to look forward to next month when, oh yeah, that NCAA championship game actually occurs.

Save your “March is the worst month of the year” takes for the next person in line, thanks.

Anyway, at this point in the season it’s worth noting that the trade deadline has come and passed. While acquisitions like Rick Nash for the Boston Bruins, Derick Brassard for the Pittsburgh Penguins, Tomas Tatar for the Vegas Golden Knights and Paul Stastny for the Winnipeg Jets will certainly impact their teams, the following projected standings are merely an educated guess at how things should pan out.

There are simply too many variables that Microsoft Excel cannot account for, namely injuries, roster changes and well, whether or not a player woke up on the right side of the bed that day.

To that end, some projected points totals had a little Gut Feeling 2.0 added to them. In other words, the Toronto Maple Leafs are not going to end up with 130 or 131 points like a couple of models showed– there’s simply not enough games remaining for them to almost match an NHL record.

Therefore, more realistic measures have been added for some teams to account for “reality”.

Some teams like the Chicago Blackhawks, for instance, had a little win-percentage on the season taken into account for their 19 remaining games on the season– and then reflected in the total number of points they should earn.

As with all stats and analytics, try not to get too bogged down on one or another. A holistic viewpoint goes much further than trying to survive on heart and grit alone.

Especially in today’s NHL, where speed and skill are more present than ever before.

With that, here’s a glance at how the standings should shake out for all 31 NHL clubs based on their performances through February 28, 2018.

As always, my degree is in communication, not math. In other words, throw everything mentioned above out the window, strap yourself in and good luck surviving the adrenaline rush that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Oh, your team’s not going to make it, you say?

My condolences, Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres, New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes fans. Next year is totally your year.


2017-2018 Projected Standings after Five Months

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

  1. y-Tampa Bay Lightning, 106 points (64 GP so far)
  2. x-Boston Bruins, 105 points (61 GP so far)
  3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 105 points (66 GP so far)
  4. Montreal Canadiens, 78 points (63 GP so far)
  5. Detroit Red Wings, 75 points (63 GP so far)
  6. Florida Panthers, 75 points (60 GP so far)
  7. Buffalo Sabres, 68 points (64 GP so far)
  8. Ottawa Senators, 65 points (62 GP so far)

The Atlantic Division was already determined in December. Nothing should surprise anyone, except for how close it should be coming down the wire for first place in the division.

It might seem crazy considering the Tampa Bay Lightning really bolstered their defense with Ryan McDonagh at the trade deadline, but Boston and Toronto have as much speed and offense to remain in the hunt for that little “Y” next to their names down the stretch. Plus it helps that the Lightning, Bruins and Maple Leafs aren’t playing each other every night, so that has to factor in their somehow.

Between 4th and 6th in the division it’s anyone’s game. The Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings and Florida Panthers are all teetering on the edge of either a rebuild or just a few steps away from a re-tool-on-the-fly.

Neither of them are inherently “ideal”, but they can’t do anything else to compete with Tampa, Boston and Toronto.

It’s worth noting that the Buffalo Sabres will barely climb out of the basement of the division this year. And that’s without Jack Eichel (fractured ankle).

Simply put, the Ottawa Senators are beyond bad.

Metropolitan Division

  1. z-Pittsburgh Penguins, 108 points (64 GP so far)
  2. x-Philadelphia Flyers, 99 points (63 GP so far)
  3. x-New Jersey Devils, 97 points (63 GP so far)
  4. wc1-Columbus Blue Jackets, 96 points (63 GP so far)
  5. wc2-Washington Capitals, 94 points (64 GP so far)
  6. New York Islanders, 87 points (64 GP so far)
  7. Carolina Hurricanes, 75 points (63 GP so far)
  8. New York Rangers, 72 points (64 GP so far)

After much turbulence leading up to this month in the Metropolitan Division, it seems by the end of the month, we’ll have a clear picture of who’s really a contender, who’s making a Second Round exit and who’s just pretending to be on the ice when they’re actually sending out some pretty high-tech holograms on the ice.

In other words, the Pittsburgh Penguins are suited for a three-peat as long as Matt Murray can stay healthy. Even still, they’re beginning to peak at the right time as they have done every year with Mike Sullivan behind the bench.

But who’s that neighbor of theirs in Pennsylvania? They might have to re-grease some poles in Philadelphia, because the Flyers are surging right now and it should carry them into decent playoff position.

The New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals all remain competitive, but sadly fall victim to First or Second Round exits simply because have you seen the rest of the Eastern Conference? Yeah, I thought so too.

One of these years if the Carolina Hurricanes look to actually spend a little more money they’ll be able to take their money-puck approach back to the postseason for the first time since 2009, but this year is not that year. They didn’t do anything at the deadline and it shows.

Western Conference

Central Division

  1. p-Winnipeg Jets, 116 points (63 GP so far)
  2. x-Minnesota Wild, 104 points (63 GP so far)
  3. x-Nashville Predators, 100 points (62 GP so far)
  4. wc2-St. Louis Blues, 92 points (65 GP so far)
  5. Dallas Stars, 92 points (63 GP so far)
  6. Colorado Avalanche, 85 points (63 GP so far)
  7. Chicago Blackhawks, 70 points (63 GP so far)

Your President’s Trophy winners, ladies and gentlemen, entering March 2018 should be the Winnipeg Jets.

That’s right, the team in Winnipeg, Manitoba with a seating capacity of a little more than 15,000 fans at Bell MTS Place. That one. Winnipeg. The Western Conference’s Carolina Hurricanes. They aren’t big spenders, yet they bought exactly what they needed at the trade deadline in Paul Stastny.

Meanwhile, apparently Eric Staal‘s first hat trick in a little over five years is enough to catapult the Minnesota Wild on a surprising run down the stretch. Though they are currently 3rd in the Central Division, Minnesota is coming alive.

It’s hard to knock the Nashville Predators off of their game– especially while they’re in command of the division– but something just doesn’t go exactly as planned this month for the Preds.

They’ll still beat Minnesota in the First Round and set themselves up for quite a matchup with Winnipeg in the Second Round though. Obviously the winner of that is going to battle the Vegas Golden Knights for the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl.

A warning to the St. Louis Blues– keep up this downward trend and the Dallas Stars will replace you in the wild card.

Whatever upper body injury is plaguing Corey Crawford is only making things worse for the Chicago Blackhawks.

In some models, they should be a lot better than they are right now, but that’s due to their impressive streak of success from 2010-17. Now, in 2018, the wheels fell off and the floor fell out from under them– on top of the Crawford injury.

Pacific Division

  1. y-Vegas Golden Knights, 113 points (63 GP so far)
  2. x-Los Angeles Kings, 105 points (64 GP so far)
  3. x-Anaheim Ducks, 100 points (64 GP so far)
  4. wc1-San Jose Sharks, 94 points (64 GP so far)
  5. Calgary Flames, 78 points (65 GP so far)
  6. Edmonton Oilers, 78 points (63 GP so far)
  7. Vancouver Canucks, 77 points (64 GP so far)
  8. Arizona Coyotes, 63 points (62 GP so far)

The Vegas Golden Knights, in their inaugural season, come up three points shy of winning the 2017-18 President’s Trophy as the team with the best regular season record. The Vegas Golden Knights.

Despite the push from all of the California clubs, this is Vegas’s division title to lose. Not just in the regular season, but in the playoffs too.

No amount of onslaught from the Los Angeles Kings or Anaheim Ducks should be able to stand a seven-game series with Ryan Reaves and the rest of the Golden Knights. Having said that though, it’s a shame the San Jose Sharks will likely pair-up with the Jets, because we’ll never get to know if Vegas could single handedly defeat all three California teams en route to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.

That’s assuming a lot, but let’s roll with it.

All season long the Calgary Flames have been a lovable underdog. Unfortunately, their time is cut short. All good things must come to an end and again, if you’re going to do nothing at the deadline as a fringe competitor, you can’t expect to improve.

At least you shouldn’t, otherwise well, you know the definition of insanity (doing the same thing and expecting a different result).

Better luck next year, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks and Arizona Coyotes.

Numbers Game: Boston through 60 (in 17-18)

Thanks to a nor’easter back in January that postponed a Boston Bruins-Florida Panthers matchup to the very last day of the regular season in April, the Bruins have passed the 60 game mark just in time for the trade deadline to have come and gone.

In other words, thanks to the day off between Sunday’s game in Buffalo and Tuesday night’s matchup on home ice against Carolina, I was able to put together projections for all of the new additions to the roster from the last week or two (Brian Gionta, Rick Nash, Tommy Wingels and Nick Holden).

Anyway, through 60 games of the 2017-18 season, the Boston Bruins have faltered as of late to 3rd place in the Atlantic Division with five games in hand on the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Nothing to worry about– what’s that, Patrice Bergeron‘s out for at least two weeks?

Okay, still nothing to worry about. The Bruins have a secret weapon with the last name “Nash”. No, his first name’s not “Rick”, though Rick Nash could really bring this team to the next level as a result of his acquisition. The secret weapon is Riley Nash.

Yes, Riley Nash.

He’s having a career season that could result in 13-23–36 totals when all is said and done. Even with his current 10-18–28 totals in 59 games played, he’s set new career highs in all offensive categories. Imagine what an additional three goals and five assists over the next 22 games could do for Boston as they head down the stretch with some unprecedented depth-scoring.

But enough about Riley Nash, let’s take a look at the rest of the roster, shall we?

Take a look at the latest forecast for the Bruins in the charts below. As always, please keep in mind that my degree is in communication and not math or anything to do with numbers, really. My expertise is in words so if anything looks out-of-whack– it’s Microsoft Excel’s fault.

I’m just kidding.

There’s outliers in everything and not every prediction pans out. Again, these charts are only a utopian view on things– ignoring injuries, healthy scratches, sickness, bad hair days or anything else.


Boston Bruins Projections Through 60 Games (22 Games Remaining)

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Rick Nash should fit right in alongside David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk on the second line for Boston. In turn, the second line’s offense should breakout once the chemistry of a few games together is in flawless rhythm. Rick Nash just might end up with 40 points on the season, thanks to Krejci’s golden passes.

Hopefully that means another contract at the end of the season for the pending-UFA wearing No. 61.

Brad Marchand should top the scoring list for the Bruins for yet another year, surpassing the 70-point plateau with an expected 30-44–74 totals by the end of the regular season. Fellow linemates, Bergeron and David Pastrnak should also see some fantastic results over the next 22 games.

Even with his current injury– a fractured right foot– Bergeron should be able to set a new career high in goals (33). Meanwhile, Pastrnak should cruise past the 60-point plateau, primarily setting up helpers on Marchand’s gifted offense.

Boston’s answer to their opponent’s third line on any given night? Danton Heinen.

The rookie should amass 16 goals and 36– 36!– assists (52 points) in his first full NHL season.

Looking further down the lines, Tim Schaller should reach the 20-point plateau. As a fourth liner. The rest of the fourth line? Sean Kuraly should reach 15 points. Noel Acciari should notch 11 points.

On defense, Zdeno Chara and Charlie McAvoy should put up respectable numbers for their age groups while Torey Krug continues his venture in the “live or die by the sword” life.

Krug is on pace for 51 points this season, which would match his career year of… …last season. The only problem is when he has a bad night, he has a bad night. Still, his scoring and puck moving abilities far outweigh some of his drawbacks. His counterpart, however, is in the midst of a sophomore slump.

Brandon Carlo hasn’t been great. Fear not though, he’s still a top-four defenseman moving forward. The future of the Bruins blue line is contingent upon McAvoy leading the charge with Carlo developing more of a shutdown style. Though he is only projected to score one goal this season, his offense isn’t the main focus.

His plus-minus, however, should be. Carlo has a plus-11 entering Tuesday night. He’s projected to be a plus-14. For someone that’s averaging almost 20 minutes a night a plus-3 differential in the last 22 games of the season should be a bit of a concern considering Boston’s overall improvement in goal scoring from last season to this season.

Consider giving Nick Holden a shot, Bruce Cassidy, if Carlo’s condition worsens. Conversely, give Matt Grzelcyk a try on the second pair, since he’s already on pace for a better season than Carlo.

In goal, Tuukka Rask is best limited to between 55-60 games and it’s looking like this year will keep him in that sweet spot. You’ve been warned, other 30 teams in the NHL.

Rask’s projected 2.21 goals against average and .927 save percentage rank 2nd and 3rd in his career in seasons with at least 41 games played.

Meanwhile, the real Anton Khudobin has decided to show up again. He’s a backup goaltender disguising himself as “having a ridiculous season”, well, until recently at least. A forecasted 2.44 GAA and .920 SV% isn’t the worst thing for a backup goaltender, but it doesn’t scream “is there a goaltending controversy in Boston?” (which, for the record, there never was since Tim Thomas‘s departure).

Khudobin filled in well at the beginning of the season when it mattered, but his luck has slowed. He’s performed his role well enough to earn another year in black-and-gold if Bruins general manager, Don Sweeney, chooses to send him a new contract for another year while Zane McIntyre and Dan Vladar develop in the system (or Jeremy Swayman down the road).

2018 Trade Deadline Preview: Atlantic Division


1. Tampa Bay Lightning– 40-17-3 (83 points, 60 GP)

Though the Tampa Bay Lightning have been on top of the Eastern Conference all season, the Boston Bruins are catching them and sure to give the Bolts a run for their money in the Eastern Conference Finals.

What do you mean that will never happen because of the current playoff format? Way to be a buzzkill, NHL.

Tampa general manager, Steve Yzerman, worked his magic on the ice for years in Detroit and his magic has gotten even better as a GM. The Lightning don’t need older guys like Dan Girardi or Chris Kunitz on the team and yet– here they are– sitting in 1st in the Atlantic Division with those guys on the roster.

The Lightning have about $2.000 million in cap space right now with some pretty important pending-RFAs to re-sign this offseason. Then again, when isn’t that the case for them?

Just try not to make a bad move at the deadline (or any moves, really) and Yzerman will find a way to keep Vladislav Namestnikov and Slater Koekkoek around for a few more years.

Potential assets to trade: F Ryan Callahan (if he’ll waive his NMC), D Braydon Coburn, F Erik Condra, F Adam Erne, D Dan Girardi, F Chris Kunitz

Potential assets to acquire: F Max Domi (ARI), F Benoit Pouliot (BUF), F Michael Grabner (NYR), D Ryan McDonagh (NYR), D Johnny Oduya (OTT), F Thomas Vanek (VAN)


2. Boston Bruins– 37-13-8 (82 points, 58 GP)

At the time of this writing, I had the Boston Bruins pinpointed on Nick Holden as an option in case they aren’t able to pull off a Ryan McDonagh trade with the New York Rangers. Holden’s cheaper, a year removed from his best season in his career and a clear top-six defenseman that’ll boost not only Boston’s depth, but solidify their blue line as contenders.

Look, it didn’t cost the Bruins much, considering Rob O’Gara was stuck in the midst of an overcrowded pool of defensive prospects and not every third round pick is making the NHL for more than half a season. Holden has the chance of becoming the next Tomas Kaberle for Boston (and let’s check where Joe Colborne is these days, oh right San Antonio).

Or Holden could stick around for a little longer if things work out just right.

If general manager, Don Sweeney, is confident in his roster, he’s set. If he’s looking to add without subtracting that “necessary” one or two more pieces to put the Bruins over the edge and into Stanley Cup favorites, then sure, he’ll find it.

Sweeney is all about holding onto his cards and being tactically smart. He’s improved in each of his three years as general manager around this time of year.

They really shouldn’t part with Jakub Zboril so early, considering he must be next in line behind Jeremy Lauzon. Yet if there’s an offer that’s too good to refuse and all indications point towards finding your next veteran defenseman for the post-Tom Brady 2.0 (at least in terms of age and playing ability) Zdeno Chara days, then sure, go for it.

Potential assets to trade: F Frank Vatrano, D Jakub Zboril

Potential assets to acquire: F Max Domi (ARI), F Benoit Pouliot (BUF), F Derek Ryan (CAR), F Tommy Wingels (CHI), F Boone Jenner (CBJ), F Gustav Nyqvist (DET), D Xavier Ouellet (DET), F Patrick Maroon (EDM), F Michael Grabner (NYR), D Nick Holden (NYR)– acquired on Tuesday, D Ryan McDonagh (NYR), D Ben Hutton (VAN)


3. Toronto Maple Leafs– 37-20-5 (79 points, 62 GP)

Despite having immense youth and talent, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves at a crossroads. Do they go for it this season (without any cap room)?

Or should they move some pieces to make the future work to their advantage (at a time when Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and crew are ready for their Stanley Cup Final debut)?

With these questions in mind, it seems a guy like James van Riemsdyk‘s time might be running short. Alas, van Riemsdyk has a modified-no trade clause and carries a $4.250 million cap hit– all while being a pending-UFA this July– but that’s nothing that can’t be overcome.

There’s still 21 teams he can be traded to and up to 50 percent of his salary can be retained if that’s a concern for anyone.

Joffrey Lupul‘s contract expires at the end of this season, so the Maple Leafs won’t have to go back and put him on the long-term injured reserve every September. It might be a smart idea to move Nathan Horton‘s contract elsewhere *ahem, Arizona* to try to get something out of it and not have to go through the LTIR motions. Neither of those situations is pressing, just food for thought.

This isn’t the year to cash in if you’re Toronto.

That might be painful for a guy like Patrick Marleau to hear, then again, he did sign a three-year contract last summer. He’s in it for the long haul and so is the Maple Leafs front office as they navigate what Matthews, Marner and Nylander’s second contracts will be.

Nylander, by the way, is a pending-RFA this summer.

Potential assets to trade: F Tyler Bozak, F Nathan Horton, F Josh Leivo, F James van Riemsdyk

Potential assets to acquire: F Antoine Vermette (ANA), F Frank Vatrano (BOS), F Benoit Pouliot (BUF), F Tommy Wingels (CHI), D Xavier Ouellet (DET), F Matt Cullen (MIN), F Alex Galchenyuk (MTL)


4. Florida Panthers– 26-25-6 (58 points, 57 GP)

The Florida Panthers have about $7.100 million in cap space currently and the opportunity to be the best of the worst teams in the Atlantic Division.

They can’t buy in bulk, but they can buy the right pieces to make themselves playoff contenders again since they blew whatever plans they had in the dismissal of Gerard Gallant as head coach and losses of Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith to the Vegas Golden Knights last June.

Another top-four defenseman and one or two of the right top-nine forwards should really make an impact on the Panthers. This is where Florida has a decent chance at being a sleeper pick for Evander Kane.

They’ve got the cap space and the right amount of talent waiting for a complementary player.

Or Florida could become sellers and move on from everything they had built to bring themselves to the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs and, well, nothing since.

Potential assets to trade: F Nick Bjugstad, F Derek MacKenzie, D Mark Pysyk, G James Reimer, F Radim Vrbata

Potential assets to acquire: F Max Domi (ARI), F Evander Kane (BUF), G Jon Gillies (CGY), F Jeff Skinner (CAR), F Boone Jenner (CBJ), D Jack Johnson (CBJ), F Gustav Nyqvist (DET), F Max Pacioretty (MTL), F Derick Brassard (OTT), F Mike Hoffman (OTT), F Zack Smith (OTT), G Aaron Dell (SJ)


5. Detroit Red Wings– 24-26-9 (57 points, 59 GP)

The Detroit Red Wings have a plethora of no-movement-clauses, expensive cap hits and everything else to sort through as they enter full-on rebuild mode.

As an Atlantic Division team outside of the playoff picture, they’re not going anywhere.

It’d make sense to go for a dive in the standings, but at what cost, since the draft lottery exists? A defenseman from Sweden leading the Red Wings to glory? Stop me if you’ve heard that one before, Nicklas Lidstrom.

Yes, it might sense to embrace the tank and give yourself a shot at Rasmus Dahlin, Detroit. This is your year– until the Edmonton Oilers win another lottery and then have Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Dahlin on a team that’s still scraping out of the basement next season.

Everyone’s at play at this year’s deadline– except for Henrik Zetterberg (because he still believes for some reason, a.k.a. he’s the new Shane Doan).

Potential assets to trade: F Luke Glendening, D Mike Green, F Darren Helm, D Niklas Kronwall, F Gustav Nyqvist, D Xavier Ouellet, F Tomas Tatar

Potential assets to acquire: Draft picks, prospects, F Max Domi (ARI), F Frank Vatrano (BOS), F Benoit Pouliot (BUF), F Jeff Skinner (CAR), F Derek Ryan (CAR), D Tyson Barrie (COL), F Alex Galchenyuk (MTL), D Ben Hutton (VAN)


6. Montreal Canadiens– 22-29-8 (52 points, 59 GP)

The Montreal Canadiens aren’t good.

Claude Julien‘s behind the bench, their scoring is down, Carey Price is fatigued (at times), Max Pacioretty’s probably going to be traded and Andrew Shaw might become the new poster boy in bleu, blanc et rouge as a result.

Nothing makes sense anymore. The Canadiens are rebuilding, about to rebuild or should rebuild.

There’s nothing else to it really. This is more than just a bad year for them, save for Buffalo and Ottawa sitting beneath them in the division. Wait, the Senators are how close?

With almost $7.200 million in cap space, the Habs can make something happen and retool on-the-fly. Though if they’re smart, they’ll try to maximize their return on any trades without jeopardizing their pending-RFAs from re-signing.

Potential assets to trade: F Alex Galchenyuk, F Max Pacioretty, D Jeff Petry, F Tomas Plekanec, F Andrew Shaw

Potential assets to acquire: F Max Domi (ARI), G Jon Gillies (CGY), F Patrick Maroon (EDM), D Jack Johnson (CBJ), F Michael Grabner (NYR), F Jordan Kyrou (STL), F Nic Petan (WPG)


7. Ottawa Senators– 21-28-10 (52 ponts, 59 GP)

If you thought things were bad in Québec, just wait until you see how the Ottawa Senators have been this year.

After nearly reaching last year’s Stanley Cup Final, the Sens thought they had a chance of making “boring” hockey exciting again. There’s just one problem– none of their players are any good, save for Erik Karlsson (who’s slumping this season), Mike Hoffman (who’s definitely going to be traded, even though GM Pierre Dorion keeps indicating he will/won’t), Mark Stone and that’s about it.

Karlsson’s a free agent after the 2018-19 season and surely won’t stick around if Ottawa doesn’t turn things around. Or worse, the Senators just might go ahead and trade their franchise defenseman.

If you thought Montreal was a dumpster fire, you’re right, but Ottawa is a thousand dumpster fires.

With about $1.315 million in cap space approaching the deadline the Senators shouldn’t have to worry. If they’re smart, that is. They’re sellers and they have to admit that they keep messing up.

In a league that’s getting younger and faster, the Sens are doing just the opposite.

Potential assets to trade: G Craig Anderson, F Derick Brassard, G Mike Condon, F Mike Hoffman, D Erik Karlsson (I don’t understand how I should even have to put him here, but I do, because it’s Ottawa we’re talking about), D Johnny Oduya, F Jean-Gabriel Pageau, F Bobby Ryan, F Zack Smith

Potential assets to acquire: Draft picks, F Benoit Pouliot (BUF), F Jeff Skinner (CAR), F Tommy Wingels (CHI), D Tyson Barrie (COL), D Xavier Ouellet (DET), F Mark Letestu (EDM), F Patrick Maroon (EDM), G Aaron Dell (SJ), D Ben Hutton (VAN), F Nic Petan (WPG)


8. Buffalo Sabres– 17-32-11 (45 points, 60 GP)

Figure it out, Buffalo. One of these years.

The Buffalo Sabres have about $5.600 million in cap space approaching Monday’s trade deadline. They’ll likely have more room to work with heading into the offseason, given Evander Kane and his $5.250 million cap hit is all but assured of being on its way out of upstate New York.

The pending-UFA is the biggest prize the Sabres have to offer to a playoff contender or any team with enough cap room looking to reignite their offense.

Other than that, the goalie market looks slim at the deadline– especially after the Philadelphia Flyers already went out and got Petr Mrazek from Detroit– so Robin Lehner probably isn’t going anywhere. Yet.

Lehner is a 26-year-old pending-RFA this July and could certainly prove worthy to a team looking to overhaul its goaltending. If Sabres general manager, Jason Botterill, can’t find the right trading partner now, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to do so at the NHL Entry Draft in June.

As for the rest of the roster, Buffalo might take a page from Ottawa and the New York Rangers in that everyone– save for Jack Eichel and Ryan O’Reilly— just might be available.

Don’t count the Sabres out (of the trade market, that is). They just might go all in on landing a big name or two looking for a reset.

Potential assets to trade: D Nathan Beaulieu, F Evander Kane, F Zemgus Girgensons, D Josh Gorges, G Robin Lehner, F Matt Moulson, F Benoit Pouliot, F Sam Reinhart, F Scott Wilson

Potential assets to acquire: F Antoine Vermette (ANA), F Frank Vatrano (BOS), F Jeff Skinner (CAR), D Tyson Barrie (COL), D Xavier Ouellet (DET), F Tomas Tatar (DET), G James Reimer (FLA), F Max Pacioretty (MTL), F Tomas Plekanec (MTL), D Ryan McDonagh (NYR), F Mike Hoffman (OTT), D Erik Karlsson (OTT), G Aaron Dell (SJ)

Numbers Game: Flirting With [Trading] Partners

For those of you that don’t work for Hallmark, it’s February, so you all have to get your act together– unless you’re like me and you’re totally going to be hitting up that half-price candy at Target on February 15th for no reason whatsoever.

Anyway, it’s time we take a look at how the standings should look in April based on how all 31 NHL teams entered the month of February.

Now, in light of the trade deadline near the end of the month (Monday, February 26th to be exact), let’s keep this one brief, shall we?

Just for this time around.

If you’re dying to know more about the outlook of your team, your rival or others, then you should come back each week (Thursdays at 3p ET) leading up to the deadline (take a gander at the Pacific Division trade deadline preview that’s out now!).

Keep in mind the following projections do not take into account any of the action from Thursday night (“GP so far” = the number of games said team has played from October through January 31st).

2017-2018 Projected Standings after Four Months

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

  1. z-Boston Bruins, 116 points (48 GP so far)
  2. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 111 points (52 GP so far)
  3. x-Tampa Bay Lightning, 106 points (50 GP so far)
  4. Detroit Red Wings, 80 points (49 GP so far)
  5. Montreal Canadiens, 79 points (50 GP so far)
  6. Florida Panthers, 69 points (48 GP so far)
  7. Ottawa Senators, 69 points (48 GP so far)
  8. Buffalo Sabres, 63 points (50 GP so far)

Overall the Atlantic Division is rubbish.

Boston, Toronto and Tampa dominate the division, meanwhile the Senators are struggling to figure out that what they really need is to pay Erik Karlsson and rebuild (sooner rather than later). That being said, Detroit’s rebuild that they’re denying is actually a rebuild should look pretty good, considering the state of Montreal, Florida and Buffalo.

Are the Bruins really that good? Time will tell. Under Bruce Cassidy, Boston hasn’t gone through long streaks of highs and lows– in other words, they seem to always be peaking.

Will the Lightning cool off that much?

It’s possible, considering the Maple Leafs might not actually be trying that hard right now. It’s all part of a conspiracy theory pushed forth by @connorzkeith whereby head coach, Mike Babcock, is actually just toying with the league right now and teaching his young kids in Toronto how to play defense. Then one day *boom* Toronto’s offense goes off again.

Metropolitan Division

  1. y-Washington Capitals, 104 points (50 GP so far)
  2. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 101 points (52 GP so far)
  3. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 99 points (50 GP so far)
  4. x- New Jersey Devils, 96 points (49 GP so far)
  5. x-Philadelphia Flyers, 89 points (50 GP so far)
  6. New York Islanders, 89 points (52 GP so far)
  7. New York Rangers, 87 points (50 GP so far)
  8. Carolina Hurricanes, 83 points (50 GP so far)

The Metropolitan Division is, at times, really exciting and at other times a crapshoot.

Barry Trotz’s Washington Capitals have figured out their game (like they always do) and should continue to hold onto the regular season division title (cue the cliché Second Round exit joke).

Pittsburgh is hitting their strides, despite shaky goaltending at times– though Washington has seen their share of that too. Speaking of goaltenders, Columbus has a not-so-secret weapon in net– it’s Sergei Bobrovsky and he’s here to keep the team out of a wild card spot.

New Jersey’s hot start was met by a cool middle before figuring out that yes, they can be a playoff team after all. Same thing for the Flyers, but not really. Philadelphia started slow and they’re looking to finish fast (in the 2nd wild card spot in the Eastern Conference).

Other than that, the Islanders and the Rangers look to retool, while Carolina looks to capitalize on selling Hartford Whalers merchandise in Raleigh, North Carolina for the first time at their team store.

Consider me a fan, Tom Dundon.

Western Conference

Central Division

  1. y-Winnipeg Jets, 112 points (51 GP so far)
  2. x-St. Louis Blues, 103 points (52 GP so far)
  3. x-Chicago Blackhawks, 103 points (50 GP so far)
  4. x-Nashville Predators, 101 points (48 GP so far)
  5. Minnesota Wild, 96 points (50 GP so far)
  6. Dallas Stars, 92 points (51 GP so far)
  7. Colorado Avalanche, 91 points (48 GP so far)

In what might actually be the most exciting playoff push coming down the stretch, the Winnipeg Jets top the Central Division. Prepare for another whiteout at Bell MTS Place.

The St. Louis Blues cruise into the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs where it’s make or break– Cup or bust, the Western Conference’s Washington Capitals, except the Blues actually made a conference finals in the last decade.

As always, the Chicago Blackhawks season hasn’t actually started yet, so this whole “they’re last in the Central Division currently” talk is just talk. March comes around and the Blackhawks don’t lose another game until they get swept in the First Round.

Because of Chicago’s immaculate late season surge, Nashville slides into the first wild card spot in the West. No big deal.

Minnesota, Dallas and Colorado, despite missing the playoffs, are all exactly where they want to be. Far ahead of the atrocities in the Atlantic Division, such that Colorado becomes a destination location to land in July.

Pacific Division

  1. p-Vegas Golden Knights, 119 points (49 GP so far)
  2. x-Los Angeles Kings, 101 points (50 GP so far)
  3. x-Anaheim Ducks, 98 points (51 GP so far)
  4. x-San Jose Sharks, 97 points (50 GP so far)
  5. Calgary Flames, 88 points (50 GP so far)
  6. Edmonton Oilers, 80 points (49 GP so far)
  7. Vancouver Canucks, 79 points (49 GP so far)
  8. Arizona Coyotes, 57 points (50 GP so far)

The Vegas Golden Knights have already smashed so many records, why not break another one and win the President’s Trophy in their first season of existence as an expansion team?

They’ve already proven they’re the best expansion franchise in the history of the four major North American professional sports.

Los Angeles and Anaheim take advantage of the fact that the San Jose Sharks time is running out with their current core. Deadline moves cost the Sharks a legitimate shot in the playoffs, but at least they still made it as the second wild card from the Western Conference.

Calgary will get better, provided they take care of that defense first.

While disappointing, Edmonton’s misjudgment should be easy to overcome, but they’re going to have to ride out this mediocre season first.

Vancouver’s focus is on getting healthy and always giving Brock Boeser the puck.

Meanwhile, does anyone happen to know if Rasmus Dahlin likes getting his tan on? Because he’s probably headed to Arizona right now, where they might move on from a franchise defenseman (Oliver Ekman-Larsson) to draft… another franchise defenseman. Consider the rebuild over?

Not by a long shot.

Down the Frozen River Podcast #90- Standing All-Stars

Nick and Connor breakdown the news and notes from the latest week in the NHL leading up to the 2018 NHL All-Star break. Mike Smith is going back to the All-Star Game and we’re celebrating with #DTFRMissionAccomplished.

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

NHL Power Rankings: “Better Late Than Never” Edition

Apologies for being a day late with our NHL Power Rankings this week, as I’m sure so many people were looking forward to it… *Crickets*

Ok, moving on!

Things get a little tricky with bye weeks in play, but we still gave you the latest and greatest in terms of games played this past week. We’re rolling with the theme of this week’s edition because many of these teams were not in this position earlier in the season. As one might say, it’s better late than never, someone just be sure to remind them that the NHL season starts in October. With that said, let’s take a look at who made our top ten this week:

#1 Calgary Flames (59)

Current Record – 25-16-4

Last Ten Games – 7-2-1; Streak – W7

Don’t look now, but the Flames are on some kind of run. We’re a bit afraid to talk about it because that usually means it will come to a screeching halt. Jokes aside, Calgary is our top team for a reason. They are 7-2-1 in their last ten, with all of those wins coming in a row. Mike Smith is in pure beast-mode, which has helped his team crawl into the final playoff spot in the Pacific Division. Maybe scratching the ageless wonder was the answer after all.

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins (47)

Current Record – 24-19-3

Last Ten Games – 6-4-0; Streak – W4

A few weeks ago, the Penguins seemed in really bad shape. It was almost as if they had lost their identity because they really didn’t look like the back-to-back Stanley Cup Champions. As of late, they have picked up their play and are now back in playoff position. They were never really that far out, as the Metropolitan Division may very well be the tightest race in the NHL. Although just 6-4-0 in their last ten, Sidney Crosby and his crew seems to have turned the corner to get out of their slump.

#3 Colorado Avalanche (46)

Current Record – 24-16-3

Last Ten Games – 8-1-1; Streak – W7

The phrase “better late than never” could not be truer for the Avalanche. They started playing great hockey a few weeks ago and haven’t looked back. Winning seven games in a row, they are within striking distance of a playoff position. Colorado will look to make it eight-straight when they take on the Sharks tomorrow night.

#4 Minnesota Wild (45)

Current Record – 24-17-5

Last Ten Games – 6-2-2; Streak – OT1

The Minnesota Wild are back in the conversation, as they ride the shoulders of Devan Dubnyk. They downed the Blackhawks and the Jets, but came up short in overtime against the Canucks. It doesn’t get any easier for them, as they take on the Lightning and Penguins in two of their next three games. They are currently just a point shy of a Wild Card position in the Western Conference.

#5 New York Islanders (27)

Current Record – 23-19-4

Last Ten Games – 4-6-0; Steak – L1

You may be reading this thinking, really, Islanders in the top five? Keep in mind before a weak performance against the Devils, they were riding a string of three wins. What is more impressive is their stellar offense. During those three games, they scored 17 goals. For John Tavares and his teammates, when it rains, it pours. If the Islanders can rebound during this next stretch, they should be able to propel themselves to a playoff spot, at least for now.

#6 Nashville Predators (25)

Current Record – 26-11-6

Last Ten Games – 5-3-2; Streak – W3

The Predators are right back on track, winning key games against the Kings, Oilers, and Golden Knights. Although offense is usually the story for this squad, they are playing well at the other end of the ice. They were able to hold Edmonton to just one score, while shutting out Vegas (albeit a 1-0 barn-burner). The Coyotes and Panthers are up next, before a marquee matchup with the Lightning.

#7 Washington Capitals (20)

Current Record – 28-14-3

Last Ten Games – 6-2-2; Streak – W1

More of the same this week for the Capitals, as they continue to skate through their schedule. Although not making up much ground in the Presidents’ Trophy race, they are still sitting atop the Metropolitan Division. A loss to the Hurricanes is their only blemish in the last five games.

#8 Edmonton Oilers (20)

Current Record – 20-23-3

Last Ten Games – 3-6-1; Streak – W2

The Edmonton Oilers may be among the bottom ten teams of the league, but don’t tell them that. As of late, they have picked up their play a bit. The offense led by Connor McDavid is improving, but they need to do something about that defense. Before winning their last two games, they allowed 15 goals in their last five games, with nine of those coming in back-to-back contests. They will need a big run to make up ground in the Wild Card race.

#9 Vegas Golden Knights (11)

Current Record – 29-11-3

Last Ten Games – 7-2-1; Streak – L1

Isn’t it more fun when the Golden Knights win? They have been up and down as of late, winning just two of their last five games. Two of those are one-goal losses to the Blues and Predators, which is obviously nothing to be ashamed of. They need a big rebound against a strong Tampa Bay team, or they could fall into a bit of a slump. They might not want to do that, as everyone would immediately jump off the bandwagon.

#10 San Jose Sharks (11)

Current Record – 24-13-6

Last Ten Games – 6-2-2; Streak – W3

The Sharks are wedged between the Flames and the Golden Knights (honestly, didn’t think I would be saying that one this season), as they continue to push toward the playoffs. With only two regulation losses in their last ten games, including winning their last three contests, they are fairly safe moving forward.

Down the Frozen River Podcast #88- The Undesirables

The Original Trio reunite for a very fun-filled podcast. The Carolina Hurricanes were sold, Jaromir Jagr is soon to be unsigned, All-Star Rosters were scrutinized, US and Canada men’s national teams were analyzed and more in this action packed episode. #HealthBeforeHockey

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

Numbers Game: Boston Through 40 (2017-18)

As the calendar flips from 2017 to 2018 the NHL’s regular season keeps rolling along. Having played 40 games so far this season, the Boston Bruins are now in the midst of their bye week 2nd in the Atlantic Division (53 points)– ten points behind the Eastern Conference leading Tampa Bay Lightning.

Plenty of teams have been pleasant surprises, namely, the Vegas Golden Knights and the New Jersey Devils through the first half of the season. To say the Golden Knights are merely on a hot start is a major understatement– there’s a legitimate chance Vegas will not only make the playoffs, but compete with the Lightning and Winnipeg Jets in what’s shaping up to be a competitive three-way battle for the 2017-18 President’s Trophy.

Regardless, Boston has not been a pleasant surprise. No.

If you’ve been tracking Don Sweeney‘s every move since becoming general manager in 2015, then you aren’t surprised at all to see that this year’s Bruins squad is playing on another level and turning heads around the hockey world.

It’s a very methodic approach– one that takes its time while patience wears thin among fans that demand excellence every shift in the Hub– but the Boston Bruins are ready for a breakout performance in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs (barring a second half of the season collapse).

While many are busy trying to come up with a nickname for Boston’s fourth line of Tim Schaller, Sean Kuraly and Noel Acciari— I recommend either “The 50s Line” (since Schaller, Kuraly and Acciari wear No.’s 59, 52 and 55 respectively) or “The B52 Line” (an ode to the music group, sure, but also a nod to Kuraly’s stellar anchor as the center)– it’s a shame no one’s come up with anything for the legend that is the Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak line.

Usually it’s just “the Bergeron line”, but if you’ve seen the production from this line, you might just think back to the days of “The Uke Line”, “The Kraut Line” or “The Dynamite Line”– all of which were historic lines in Bruins franchise history.

Anyway, on with the show…

Through 40 games played this season, here’s a look at how every player on Boston’s roster should pan out for the remaining 42 games. Please remember my degree is in communication– not math– so any miscalculations are Microsoft Excel’s fault.


Boston Bruins Projections Through 40 Games (42 Games Remaining)

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At this point in the season everything begins to look more realistic. Unless you’re still looking at Tommy Cross‘s projected stats. Again, that’s a product of forecasting a season for a player based on every career NHL game that player has played. Cross has yet to appear in an NHL game since the 2015-16 season; because of this, his numbers look more promising based on the formula alone than they actually probably would be, unless he knows something about his game we don’t.

Until a player like Cross (or other players with few career NHL games played) suits up in the 2017-18 season, that players numbers are reflective of a more “idealistic” season. In other words, it’s a pipe dream (until it actually happens).

The Bruins finally have a healthy lineup. Well, kind of.

Defenseman, Adam McQuaid, is still out after missing time due to a fractured right fibula. Upon his imminent return, who exactly should Bruce Cassidy pull out of the lineup, if anyone?

Matt Grzelcyk‘s emerged from the shadows of the last couple of seasons– in which he made his professional debut and NHL debut. He’s solidified himself as a top-6 defenseman, capable of earning his ice time and/or McQuaid’s job at less than half the price (at least until this offseason, when Grzelyck’s entry-level contract is set to expire).

Grzelyck, 24, is seven-years younger than McQuaid and could provide the same amount of offensive production or more down the road. By default, Grzelcyk’s offensive game is better than McQuaid’s this season.

Of course, there’s some things working in McQuaid’s favor in his ability to block shots, use his body and throw punches when “the code of hockey” needs to be enforced.

Though, again, there is a younger blue liner– albeit by a year and at $250,000 less– that could carry the weight of the tough guy on Boston’s defense. That guy is Kevan Miller, 30, who’s having what’s poised to equal or surpass his career year of 2015-16 in points (18), while teaching Grzelyck the ways of a bottom-pair defenseman.

Brandon Carlo has yet to score this season and is– by all considerations– in a sophomore slump. But he is only 21-years-old and destined to solidify as a top-4 defenseman in his career. He’s no Charlie McAvoy, but it wouldn’t make sense to punish a young player for showing his youth in his errors that he’s made at times through the year.

Before you know it, McQuaid could be the next Paul Postma on the Bruins as another healthy scratch on a night-to-night basis– though providing much needed depth when one of the regular guys goes down with an injury.

The Bruins have a plus-29 goal differential after 40 games this season, which is seven more than they had at the end of last season.

It seems promising that Boston will continue to only get better offensively down the stretch with David Pastrnak seeking to best his career high in assists while amassing almost 70 points on the season. That’s just 1/3 of the Bergeron line.

Brad Marchand should easily reach the 70-point plateau for not only the second time in his career– but the second year in a row– as Patrice Bergeron continues to swing the momentum around in his scoring projections (expected to surpass at least 60 points this season).

Rookies Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen will each have respectable numbers that should flirt with the 50-point plateau. DeBrusk may only end up with 20-26-46 totals, but Heinen should continue to charge down the stretch reaching 22-43–65 totals in his own spectacular rookie season.

It’s not Earth-shattering by any means, but it is highly underrated. Especially with a guy like David Backes on the same line.

Backes, in his own right, is bringing some extra bang for his buck this season. Having missed almost half of the season with diverticulitis and recovering from the surgical removal of part of his colon, Backes is lighter and better than ever.

And one more thing for the haters…

Tuukka Rask is back. This could be a Vezina Trophy winning season, if not more, for the Finnish goaltender.

NHL Power Rankings: “I’m Already Halfway There” Edition

Well hockey fans, we’re at the midway point of the NHL season. This is the time when teams either get geared up for a playoff run, prepare for an early exit, or get really nervous because they are somewhere in-between. There is plenty of hockey left to be played and a lot can happen. As for now, here is the current edition of Down the Frozen River’s NHL Power Rankings:

1. Boston Bruins (55)Unknown-7

Current Record – 23-10-7

Last Ten Games – 8-0-2; Streak – OT1

The B’s are really heating up, winning eight of their last ten. As a matter of fact, they haven’t lost a game in regulation since the middle of December. The offense is finally firing on all cylinders, with Patrice Bergeron leading the charge. They currently only trail the Tampa Bay Lighting (shocker… pun intended) in the Atlantic Division. They don’t play again until January 13th, when they take on Montreal.

2. Colorado Avalanche (55)

Current Record – 22-16-3

Last Ten Games – 7-2-1; Streak – W5Unknown-1

How does trading away a quality player make you better? Hard to understand, but since sending Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators, the Avalanche have looked like a completely different team. Their young players are finally taking leadership roles and producing great numbers. Semyon Varlamov and the defensive corps are getting on the same page, shutting down their opponents. They are on a five-game winning streak and are looking to solidify a playoff position in the second half of the season.

3. Vegas Golden Knights (40)

Current Record – 29-10-2vegas_golden_knights_logo

Last Ten Games – 9-1-0; Streak – W2

Not much to say here. The Golden Knights have lost one game in their last ten, which was a great effort against the St. Louis Blues. Head Coach Gerard Gallant will lead the Pacific Division in the 2018 All-Star Game, yet another honor to add to this team’s resume. Speaking of leading the Pacific Division, Vegas is now seven points above the L.A. Kings and an astounding 12 points above the San Jose Sharks. This team is making the playoffs and their fantastic play has them more than halfway there.

4. Washington Capitals (31)

Current Record – 26-13-3

Last Ten Games – 7-1-2; Streak – W4Washington Capitals Logo

Don’t look now, but the Capitals could be gearing up for another Presidents’ Trophy run. Alex Ovechkin is proving why you should never doubt Alex Ovechkin, while the rest of the team is chipping in their share. Although Washington seemed a little slow out of the gate, this team has shaken off the rust and currently sits atop the stacked Metropolitan Division.

5. Dallas Stars (30)

Current Record – 24-16-3CJhyiLmK

Last Ten Games – 6-2-2; Streak – W2

The Stars are looking solid entering the next stretch of the season. Ben Bishop is among the top goalies in the league, winning 19 games on the season. If he can continue being a brick wall, while the offense remains productive, there is no reason to think they won’t be able to move up and grab the final spot in the Central Division. They will have a tough test, playing three games in four nights once they return to action.

6. Philadelphia Flyers (26)

Current Record – 19-15-8

Last Ten Games – 5-4-1; Streak – W3Philadelphia Flyers Logo

The Flyers continue to make up for their winless blunder earlier in the season, as they ride through a three-game winning streak. With the up-and-down play of the Penguins, Islanders and Hurricanes, Philadelphia somewhat controls their own fate in the second half of the season. If they play well, they are more than capable of clinching a Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. They still have some work to do, but they are currently playing well enough to get the job done.

7. Calgary Flames (20)

Current Record – 21-16-4Calgary Flames Logo

Last Ten Games – 5-4-1; Streak – W3

The biggest story out of Calgary is their relationship with Jaromir Jagr. There are many eyes glued to this situation, curious to see if Jagr has played his last game in the National Hockey League. The team has played well despite the drama, winning their last three games. Somewhat of a “dark horse” situation, the Flames are in a good position to make a run at a playoff spot.

8. Winnipeg Jets (18)

Current Record – 25-11-7jetslogo

Last Ten Games – 7-1-2; Streak – W2

The Jets are quietly taking care of their business as they move past the midway point on the season. They haven’t done anything too flashy as of late, but are skating well on both ends of the ice. Although quality opponents still lurk below, Winnipeg is leading the Central Division and looks to keep it that way.

9. Chicago Blackhawks (16)

Current Record – 20-15-6

Last Ten Games – 5-4-1; Streak – W1Unknown-2

The Blackhawks are in an unusual position this season. They are used to dominating the field and skating into a playoff spot without much opposition, but the “Dynasty” could be in a bit of trouble this season. Just 5-4-1 in their last ten games, they are currently dead last in the Central Division. Although not ideal, there is plenty of hockey to be played and this is not a team to ever count out.

10. Anaheim Ducks (14)

Current Record – 19-15-9Unknown-1

Last Ten Games – 5-4-1; Streak – L1

The Ducks need to make up some ground, but they might be able to do so with a healthy roster. Their last game was a 3-2 loss to Calgary, but prior to that, they earned points in four straight games. Anaheim always seems to be that bubble team in the Pacific Division. They are currently just one point out of the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference, so look for a big battle in the second half of the season. They face a difficult stretch of games, with two against the L.A. Kings, one with the upbeat Avalanche, and a bout with the Penguins.

Down the Frozen River Podcast #87- 87s Galore (Crosby’s Favorite Episode)

The Original Trio discuss the 2018 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic, 2018 IIHF World Junior Championship and more in separately recorded sessions of the podcast. Also, we’re available for hire. In memoriam: Part of Joe Thornton’s beard that Nazem Kadri ripped off (2015-2018).

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.