Tag Archives: Atlantic Division

Down the Frozen River Podcast #88- The Undesirables

The Original Trio reunite for a very fun-filled podcast. The Carolina Hurricanes were sold, Jaromir Jagr is soon to be unsigned, All-Star Rosters were scrutinized, US and Canada men’s national teams were analyzed and more in this action packed episode. #HealthBeforeHockey

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

Numbers Game: Boston Through 40 (2017-18)

As the calendar flips from 2017 to 2018 the NHL’s regular season keeps rolling along. Having played 40 games so far this season, the Boston Bruins are now in the midst of their bye week 2nd in the Atlantic Division (53 points)– ten points behind the Eastern Conference leading Tampa Bay Lightning.

Plenty of teams have been pleasant surprises, namely, the Vegas Golden Knights and the New Jersey Devils through the first half of the season. To say the Golden Knights are merely on a hot start is a major understatement– there’s a legitimate chance Vegas will not only make the playoffs, but compete with the Lightning and Winnipeg Jets in what’s shaping up to be a competitive three-way battle for the 2017-18 President’s Trophy.

Regardless, Boston has not been a pleasant surprise. No.

If you’ve been tracking Don Sweeney‘s every move since becoming general manager in 2015, then you aren’t surprised at all to see that this year’s Bruins squad is playing on another level and turning heads around the hockey world.

It’s a very methodic approach– one that takes its time while patience wears thin among fans that demand excellence every shift in the Hub– but the Boston Bruins are ready for a breakout performance in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs (barring a second half of the season collapse).

While many are busy trying to come up with a nickname for Boston’s fourth line of Tim Schaller, Sean Kuraly and Noel Acciari— I recommend either “The 50s Line” (since Schaller, Kuraly and Acciari wear No.’s 59, 52 and 55 respectively) or “The B52 Line” (an ode to the music group, sure, but also a nod to Kuraly’s stellar anchor as the center)– it’s a shame no one’s come up with anything for the legend that is the Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak line.

Usually it’s just “the Bergeron line”, but if you’ve seen the production from this line, you might just think back to the days of “The Uke Line”, “The Kraut Line” or “The Dynamite Line”– all of which were historic lines in Bruins franchise history.

Anyway, on with the show…

Through 40 games played this season, here’s a look at how every player on Boston’s roster should pan out for the remaining 42 games. Please remember my degree is in communication– not math– so any miscalculations are Microsoft Excel’s fault.

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Boston Bruins Projections Through 40 Games (42 Games Remaining)

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At this point in the season everything begins to look more realistic. Unless you’re still looking at Tommy Cross‘s projected stats. Again, that’s a product of forecasting a season for a player based on every career NHL game that player has played. Cross has yet to appear in an NHL game since the 2015-16 season; because of this, his numbers look more promising based on the formula alone than they actually probably would be, unless he knows something about his game we don’t.

Until a player like Cross (or other players with few career NHL games played) suits up in the 2017-18 season, that players numbers are reflective of a more “idealistic” season. In other words, it’s a pipe dream (until it actually happens).


The Bruins finally have a healthy lineup. Well, kind of.

Defenseman, Adam McQuaid, is still out after missing time due to a fractured right fibula. Upon his imminent return, who exactly should Bruce Cassidy pull out of the lineup, if anyone?

Matt Grzelcyk‘s emerged from the shadows of the last couple of seasons– in which he made his professional debut and NHL debut. He’s solidified himself as a top-6 defenseman, capable of earning his ice time and/or McQuaid’s job at less than half the price (at least until this offseason, when Grzelyck’s entry-level contract is set to expire).

Grzelyck, 24, is seven-years younger than McQuaid and could provide the same amount of offensive production or more down the road. By default, Grzelcyk’s offensive game is better than McQuaid’s this season.

Of course, there’s some things working in McQuaid’s favor in his ability to block shots, use his body and throw punches when “the code of hockey” needs to be enforced.

Though, again, there is a younger blue liner– albeit by a year and at $250,000 less– that could carry the weight of the tough guy on Boston’s defense. That guy is Kevan Miller, 30, who’s having what’s poised to equal or surpass his career year of 2015-16 in points (18), while teaching Grzelyck the ways of a bottom-pair defenseman.

Brandon Carlo has yet to score this season and is– by all considerations– in a sophomore slump. But he is only 21-years-old and destined to solidify as a top-4 defenseman in his career. He’s no Charlie McAvoy, but it wouldn’t make sense to punish a young player for showing his youth in his errors that he’s made at times through the year.

Before you know it, McQuaid could be the next Paul Postma on the Bruins as another healthy scratch on a night-to-night basis– though providing much needed depth when one of the regular guys goes down with an injury.

The Bruins have a plus-29 goal differential after 40 games this season, which is seven more than they had at the end of last season.

It seems promising that Boston will continue to only get better offensively down the stretch with David Pastrnak seeking to best his career high in assists while amassing almost 70 points on the season. That’s just 1/3 of the Bergeron line.

Brad Marchand should easily reach the 70-point plateau for not only the second time in his career– but the second year in a row– as Patrice Bergeron continues to swing the momentum around in his scoring projections (expected to surpass at least 60 points this season).

Rookies Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen will each have respectable numbers that should flirt with the 50-point plateau. DeBrusk may only end up with 20-26-46 totals, but Heinen should continue to charge down the stretch reaching 22-43–65 totals in his own spectacular rookie season.

It’s not Earth-shattering by any means, but it is highly underrated. Especially with a guy like David Backes on the same line.

Backes, in his own right, is bringing some extra bang for his buck this season. Having missed almost half of the season with diverticulitis and recovering from the surgical removal of part of his colon, Backes is lighter and better than ever.

And one more thing for the haters…

Tuukka Rask is back. This could be a Vezina Trophy winning season, if not more, for the Finnish goaltender.

NHL Power Rankings: “I’m Already Halfway There” Edition

Well hockey fans, we’re at the midway point of the NHL season. This is the time when teams either get geared up for a playoff run, prepare for an early exit, or get really nervous because they are somewhere in-between. There is plenty of hockey left to be played and a lot can happen. As for now, here is the current edition of Down the Frozen River’s NHL Power Rankings:

1. Boston Bruins (55)Unknown-7

Current Record – 23-10-7

Last Ten Games – 8-0-2; Streak – OT1

The B’s are really heating up, winning eight of their last ten. As a matter of fact, they haven’t lost a game in regulation since the middle of December. The offense is finally firing on all cylinders, with Patrice Bergeron leading the charge. They currently only trail the Tampa Bay Lighting (shocker… pun intended) in the Atlantic Division. They don’t play again until January 13th, when they take on Montreal.

2. Colorado Avalanche (55)

Current Record – 22-16-3

Last Ten Games – 7-2-1; Streak – W5Unknown-1

How does trading away a quality player make you better? Hard to understand, but since sending Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators, the Avalanche have looked like a completely different team. Their young players are finally taking leadership roles and producing great numbers. Semyon Varlamov and the defensive corps are getting on the same page, shutting down their opponents. They are on a five-game winning streak and are looking to solidify a playoff position in the second half of the season.

3. Vegas Golden Knights (40)

Current Record – 29-10-2vegas_golden_knights_logo

Last Ten Games – 9-1-0; Streak – W2

Not much to say here. The Golden Knights have lost one game in their last ten, which was a great effort against the St. Louis Blues. Head Coach Gerard Gallant will lead the Pacific Division in the 2018 All-Star Game, yet another honor to add to this team’s resume. Speaking of leading the Pacific Division, Vegas is now seven points above the L.A. Kings and an astounding 12 points above the San Jose Sharks. This team is making the playoffs and their fantastic play has them more than halfway there.

4. Washington Capitals (31)

Current Record – 26-13-3

Last Ten Games – 7-1-2; Streak – W4Washington Capitals Logo

Don’t look now, but the Capitals could be gearing up for another Presidents’ Trophy run. Alex Ovechkin is proving why you should never doubt Alex Ovechkin, while the rest of the team is chipping in their share. Although Washington seemed a little slow out of the gate, this team has shaken off the rust and currently sits atop the stacked Metropolitan Division.

5. Dallas Stars (30)

Current Record – 24-16-3CJhyiLmK

Last Ten Games – 6-2-2; Streak – W2

The Stars are looking solid entering the next stretch of the season. Ben Bishop is among the top goalies in the league, winning 19 games on the season. If he can continue being a brick wall, while the offense remains productive, there is no reason to think they won’t be able to move up and grab the final spot in the Central Division. They will have a tough test, playing three games in four nights once they return to action.

6. Philadelphia Flyers (26)

Current Record – 19-15-8

Last Ten Games – 5-4-1; Streak – W3Philadelphia Flyers Logo

The Flyers continue to make up for their winless blunder earlier in the season, as they ride through a three-game winning streak. With the up-and-down play of the Penguins, Islanders and Hurricanes, Philadelphia somewhat controls their own fate in the second half of the season. If they play well, they are more than capable of clinching a Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. They still have some work to do, but they are currently playing well enough to get the job done.

7. Calgary Flames (20)

Current Record – 21-16-4Calgary Flames Logo

Last Ten Games – 5-4-1; Streak – W3

The biggest story out of Calgary is their relationship with Jaromir Jagr. There are many eyes glued to this situation, curious to see if Jagr has played his last game in the National Hockey League. The team has played well despite the drama, winning their last three games. Somewhat of a “dark horse” situation, the Flames are in a good position to make a run at a playoff spot.

8. Winnipeg Jets (18)

Current Record – 25-11-7jetslogo

Last Ten Games – 7-1-2; Streak – W2

The Jets are quietly taking care of their business as they move past the midway point on the season. They haven’t done anything too flashy as of late, but are skating well on both ends of the ice. Although quality opponents still lurk below, Winnipeg is leading the Central Division and looks to keep it that way.

9. Chicago Blackhawks (16)

Current Record – 20-15-6

Last Ten Games – 5-4-1; Streak – W1Unknown-2

The Blackhawks are in an unusual position this season. They are used to dominating the field and skating into a playoff spot without much opposition, but the “Dynasty” could be in a bit of trouble this season. Just 5-4-1 in their last ten games, they are currently dead last in the Central Division. Although not ideal, there is plenty of hockey to be played and this is not a team to ever count out.

10. Anaheim Ducks (14)

Current Record – 19-15-9Unknown-1

Last Ten Games – 5-4-1; Streak – L1

The Ducks need to make up some ground, but they might be able to do so with a healthy roster. Their last game was a 3-2 loss to Calgary, but prior to that, they earned points in four straight games. Anaheim always seems to be that bubble team in the Pacific Division. They are currently just one point out of the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference, so look for a big battle in the second half of the season. They face a difficult stretch of games, with two against the L.A. Kings, one with the upbeat Avalanche, and a bout with the Penguins.

Down the Frozen River Podcast #87- 87s Galore (Crosby’s Favorite Episode)

The Original Trio discuss the 2018 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic, 2018 IIHF World Junior Championship and more in separately recorded sessions of the podcast. Also, we’re available for hire. In memoriam: Part of Joe Thornton’s beard that Nazem Kadri ripped off (2015-2018).

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

Numbers Game: Oh We’re Halfway There (Kind Of)

At the time of this writing it was January 1st, so first, Happy New Year everyone. Now, onto the more important manners, shall we?

Entering January, all 31 National Hockey League franchises have played at least 36 games. Only the Arizona Coyotes and St. Louis Blues have played at least half a season (41 games played) so far, while the San Jose Sharks have played the fewest games (36) through December. Everyone else falls somewhere in between– and that’s not including Monday’s 2018 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic, which would bring both the Buffalo Sabres and New York Rangers to 39 games played thus far.

Considering there’s no perfect way to slice it, we’ll consider this the midpoint of the 2017-18 regular season.

In the Western Conference, at least seven teams are destined to reach the 100-point plateau on the season, with the Los Angeles Kings (106 projected points) leading the charge followed by the Winnipeg Jets (102), Vegas Golden Knights (101), St. Louis Blues (101), Chicago Blackhawks (101), Sharks (101) and Nashville Predators (100).

Last season’s dominance of the Metropolitan Division alone– where four teams reached 100-points or more in 2016-17– has migrated west this season.

The Washington Capitals (118), Pittsburgh Penguins (111), Columbus Blue Jackets (108), Montreal Canadiens (103) and New York Rangers (102) tipped the balance of the 100-point plateau to the Eastern Conference last season, with five members of the NHL over 100-points compared to the Western Conference’s four teams over 100 members (Chicago, 109, Minnesota Wild, 106, Anaheim Ducks, 105 and Edmonton Oilers, 103).

This season, the West takes the reigns of the 100-point guild, with seven projected members while the Eastern Conference may only amount to four teams with over 100-points on the league table at the end of the regular season.

Everything seems to be going the Western Conference’s way, except for the fact that the Tampa Bay Lightning exist and they are here to make a claim to this season’s President’s Trophy with a projected 110 points on the regular season.

Meanwhile the Battle for Second in the Atlantic Division is hotly contested between the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs with the three divisional spots in the playoffs (TB, BOS and TOR, in no particular order) all but a sure lock at this rate.

Despite everyone’s fears that the Capitals might not be able to pull it together this season, they emerge on top of the Metropolitan Division once again in April with 103 points on the season– and a two-point lead over the biggest surprise of the season (Golden Knights aside), the New Jersey Devils.

Two-time defending Stanley Cup champion, Matthew Murray, and the Pittsburgh Penguins may be outside of the playoff picture right now, but they’ll slide their way into the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs with the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. An exciting rematch of the 2016 Eastern Conference Finals between the Penguins and the Lightning would be exactly what the league needs for a 2018 First Round matchup.

2017-2018 Projected Standings after Three Months

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

  1. p-Tampa Bay Lightning, 110 points (38 GP so far)
  2. x-Boston Bruins, 106 points (37 GP so far)
  3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 99 points (40 GP so far)
  4. Detroit Red Wings, 85 points (38 GP so far)
  5. Montreal Canadiens, 84 points (39 GP so far)
  6. Florida Panthers, 79 points (38 GP so far)
  7. Ottawa Senators, 78 points (37 GP so far)
  8. Buffalo Sabres, 67 points (38 GP so far)

It’s no surprise for the top-three teams in the Atlantic, then it’s all downhill from there. The Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens find that being average plagues them. Meanwhile the Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators exist in mediocrity (‘sup Erik Karlsson free agency watch 2019). There’s not much to say for the Sabres other than, well… how early can you schedule a tee time?

Metropolitan Division

  1. z-Washington Capitals, 103 points (40 GP so far)
  2. x-New Jersey Devils, 101 points (38 GP so far)
  3. x-New York Rangers, 97 points (38 GP so far)
  4. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 96 points (40 GP so far)
  5. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 94 points (40 GP so far)
  6. New York Islanders, 93 points (39 GP so far)
  7. Carolina Hurricanes, 87 points (38 GP so far)
  8. Philadelphia Flyers, 86 points (38 GP so far)

The Metropolitan Division is stacked with teams on top of one another. Thankfully, by April, the division sorts itself out just enough with Washington, New Jersey and the Rangers rising as its leaders. Despite their ongoing struggles, there’s nothing to fear if you’re a Blue Jackets or Penguins fan and all you care about is making the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the first place.

Apologies to the New York Islanders, but it’s not their year in more ways than one *ahem, John Tavares free agency watch*.

Somehow the Carolina Hurricanes are making noise right now, but that should quiet down. And for the Philadelphia Flyers and their fans, at least you’re better than five of the Atlantic Division teams in these projections.

Western Conference

Central Division

  1. y-Winnipeg Jets, 102 points (40 GP so far)
  2. x-St. Louis Blues, 101 points (41 GP so far)
  3. x-Chicago Blackhawks, 101 points (38 GP so far)
  4. x-Nashville Predators, 100 points (38 GP so far)
  5. Dallas Stars, 93 points (40 GP so far)
  6. Minnesota Wild, 91 points (39 GP so far)
  7. Colorado Avalanche, 83 points (38 GP so far)

If it’s any consolation to the Nashville Predators, being a wild card team isn’t always a bad thing– oh wait, they figured that out last season en route to the 2017 Stanley Cup Final? Okay, they should be fine.

Otherwise, look out for the Winnipeg Jets, ladies and gentlemen. They’ve been skyrocketing all season long and they look ready to control the skies of the league. It’s a shame the St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks will have to play each other in the First Round in April– not like that series will have any excitement or anything.

Despite their recent success and uptick in game-play, the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild lost too many times to recover earlier on in the season.

Pacific Division

  1. z-Los Angeles Kings, 106 points (39 GP so far)
  2. x-Vegas Golden Knights, 101 points (37 GP so far)
  3. x-San Jose Sharks, 100 points (36 GP so far)
  4. x-Anaheim Ducks, 96 points (40 GP so far)
  5. Calgary Flames, 84 points (39 GP so far)
  6. Vancouver Canucks, 84 points (39 GP so far)
  7. Edmonton Oilers, 78 points (39 GP so far)
  8. Arizona Coyotes, 56 points (41 GP so far)

All three California teams in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs? Consider me hooked.

The Vegas Golden Knights continue to write history as they knock off the San Jose Sharks in the First Round of the playoffs– in their first playoffs appearance which just so happens to come in their inaugural season. It’s pure insanity, but it’s bound to happen.

If you were worried about the Anaheim Ducks, worry not. The Calgary Flames, Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers know not what they are doing. Unfortunately for Calgary and Vancouver, they play in a division with the State of California and Vegas.

Unfortunately for the Oilers, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are eating $21 million in salary cap space next season. They’re not bad players, but that’s bad asset management when you consider other large contracts on the books (Milan Lucic, in particular).

Arizona, how does Seattle sound if the league is foolish to not take $650 million in expansion fees and run?

Down the Frozen River Podcast #84- What’s the Problem, Senator?

Nick and Connor discuss the hullabaloo regarding the fallout of the Ottawa Senators and whether or not they should trade Erik Karlsson (thereby tanking and rebuilding). A quick look around California reveals contenders and pretenders, while All-Star talent and rookies are also reviewed.

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

Down the Frozen River Podcast #83- What’s Brewing In Seattle?

Nick and Connor address the latest potential-expansion news regarding Seattle, recap the process thus far and speculate about many hypothetical relocation possibilities. Charlotte is better than Raleigh, another Subban was traded and— oh yeah— there’s games on the schedule this weekend.

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

DtFR Overtime: Where’s the Star Power?

Welcome to DtFR Overtime, where somebody on the most recent podcast offers some deeper thoughts on one of the points of discussion.

Today’s subject: Star power and the absence of it.

We all know the list of current NHL stars: LW Jamie Benn, D Brent Burns, C Sidney Crosby, G Braden Holtby, F Patrick Kane, D Erik Karlsson, G Henrik Lundqvist, C Auston Matthews, C Connor McDavid, W Alex Ovechkin, G Carey Price, G Jonathan Quick, C Steven Stamkos, D P.K. Subban, RW Vladimir Tarasenko, C John Tavares

OK, I think you get the idea.

But how important are these stars really? I mean, of the skaters listed above, they play an average of only 21 minutes – or barely over a third of a game.

While the top NHL teams put a strong value on depth scoring, I would argue that, over the course of a season, it is necessary for Team X’s star to be the best player on the ice for that team to have success.

It sounds basic, right?

It is, but even the clubs that seem to be built to withstand the unfortunately inevitable scoring droughts from its top players are struggling this season.

My first example is the 12-11-5 Chicago Blackhawks, a club that currently sits in 12th place in the Western Conference and is at risk of missing the postsesaon for the first time since the 2007-’08 campaign.

I brought up Kane in the list of stars earlier, but his team-leading 10-17-27 totals are not the reason Chicago finds itself on the outside looking in. Instead, this star-laden team is struggling to find leadership from its captain.

Getting outplayed by rookie F Alex DeBrincat‘s 11-9-20 effort, C Jonathan Toews has only 8-11-19 totals to his credit and is on track for the worst offensive production of his professional career. Perhaps it is no surprise that the Blackhawks have an 11-2-2 record when Toews finds his way onto the scorecard, but a 1-9-3 record when he doesn’t.

That was fun, especially for a fan of a Central Division team that hasn’t worn a lick of red since the 1997-’98 season. Let’s head east and examine another city where it looks like the local club is in an even more dire situation

Welcome to Ottawa, the national capital of Canada.  Expectations were high after forcing a seven-game Eastern Conference Finals series with Pittsburgh back in May, but all the 9-11-6 Sens, who currently sit third-to-last in the conference, have done this season is disappoint.

To be fair, Karlsson at least has the excuse of an injury to partially explain his slump. The hard part in figuring out Karlsson’s 1-16-17 effort is that he’s mostly on track from a points-per-game standpoint. Given he missed the Sens’ first five games, his .81 points-per-game is, while not exemplary by his standards, still a solid output.

Unfortunately, this is where points can distract from goals. You probably noticed he only had one tally to his credit, which is where I think his team needs him most.

The 14-10-2 Sharks are facing a similar situation with their star defenseman Burns, who has managed only 1-11-12 totals in 26 games a year after posting 29-47-76 numbers to win the Norris Trophy. As such, San Jose does not have the solid footing in the standings it would like, as the Sharks are holding onto their second wild card position by winning only a games-played tiebreaker.

Now, I’m not going to sit here on my couch and pontificate about how to score a goal in the NHL against the 30-something best goaltenders in the world. I mean, I live in the South and can barely keep my skates underneath me the entire time I’m at the rink. But, I am going to say that Karlsson’s .05 goals-per-game for the season and Burns’ .04 is – you guessed it – the worst performances of their careers.

Last year, Karlsson scored 17 of the Sens’ 212 regular season goals. That may only be eight percent of the total, but Ottawa earned a 12-3-3 record when he personally put a goal on the scoreboard, including a perfect 2-0-0 record in the postseason. Similarly, Burns’ career-high 29 goals earned the Sharks an 18-7-1 record last season, though it might be of bigger note that Edmonton did not allow him to find the back of the net in their six-game first round matchup, the Sharks’ only playoff series of the 2017 postseason.

Now, don’t read this as all doom-and-gloom for these respective squads. All of these teams can get right back into the playoff discussion (yes, even Ottawa thanks to a weak Atlantic Division) or better cement their position in the tournament if their biggest players can simply rediscover their mojo.

Take for example Montréal, where as recently as two weeks ago it looked like the 13-13-3 Canadiens had never seen, much less used hockey sticks before. Then Price came back from his lower-body injury, and the Habs look better than ever.

Of course, things weren’t exactly peachy in Québec before Price took time off. In his 11 appearances before retreating to the press box, Price had managed only an .877 season save percentage and 3.77 GAA to earn a 3-7-1 record, forcing Habs fans and bloggers alike to wonder when exactly this injury occurred.

But since Price’s return on November 25, Price and the Habs have been almost unbeatable, as they’ve won five of their last six games with him in net. The goaltender himself has been extremely successful as well, as he’s posted a .94 save percentage and 1.67 GAA in that time.

But the turnaround hasn’t been simply in the defensive end. Even the offense is gelling now that its true leader is back (Sorry LW Max Pacioretty, but this is Price’s team. You’re captain by technicality), as success breeds success and positive energy. Since Price’s return, Montréal’s offense has managed a whopping 4.5 goals-per-game, highlighted by Saturday’s 10-1 shellacking of the Red Wings. Even taking out that major outlier, the Habs’ 3.4 goals-per-game is much better than the 2.32 goals-per-game they’d managed before Price’s return. This surge has propelled the Canadiens from sixth place in the Atlantic Division into third – a playoff spot.

Since we’re on the topic of Montréal and its stars and I already brought up Pacioretty, we might as well discuss my concerns over this team. Pacioretty is struggling something fierce right now. He’s only managed 8-8-16 totals so far this season, and is on pace for his worst professional season since his first two years with the Habs.

Unfortunately for Canadiens fans, this scoring skid is not limited to just this season. I don’t need to remind them of the magic disappearing act he performed in the playoffs against the Rangers, managing only a lone assist. In fact, since March 14 of last campaign, he’s managed only 10-14-24 totals in games that count (aka everything but the preseason).

While I belittled the letter Pacioretty wears on his sweater, he is still one of the leaders on this team. For the Habs to sustain this recent success, Pacioretty is going to need to snap out of his slump – even if it means he has to become a play-maker before resuming a goalscorer role.

Another team that has had more struggles than it would like is the two-time reigning Stanley Cup champions. While they’ve had trouble finding depth scoring and are now facing even bigger goaltending issues than they had before, the 15-11-3 Penguins have held onto a playoff position for most of the year.

Now, the operative word here is ‘most.’ There was a point in late November when the Penguins had fallen outside the playoff picture, and – as you might guess from the other examples – I would pin a lot of the club’s struggles on Crosby.

It is very hard to point at a player that is contributing a point-per-game on the season and say he is not doing enough for his team. After all, isn’t this the same team that supposedly embodies the speed-based future of the sport while also trotting out RW Ryan Reaves onto the ice every game? Why can’t his lousy 1-2-3 totals be the problem?

And yet, it’s hard to ignore that Pittsburgh’s slump aligned almost perfectly with Crosby’s goal-scoring slump. Between October 21 and November 22, Crosby managed only 1-6-7 totals in 15 games, which led the Penguins to earning only a 6-7-2 record in that time.

You might say that 6-7-2 isn’t a terrible run while one of the league’s top players is on the schneid, and I’d agree if that team wasn’t in the highly competitive Metropolitan Division. The Penguins also have the luxury of employing RW Phil Kessel and F Evgeni Malkin, who were able to keep the team mostly afloat with their combined 10-18-28 effort.

If that stat does nothing other than stress the importance of Crosby to his team, I don’t know what does. The fact that the Penguins were losing, or at least treading water, while two players created nearly 30 goals in 15 games is unbelievable.

Anyways, Crosby has rediscovered his scoring ways since then, and the Pens are all the better for it. Starting with November 24, the captain has earned 6-6-12 totals that are closer to what fans expect from him. As such, the Penguins have found their way back into the win column, earning a 4-2-0 record in spite of G Matthew Murray missing Pittsburgh’s last three games with a lower-body injury.

Of course, the Penguins are doing a great job of poking a hole in my argument by falling from third in the division back into the second wild card spot while Murray is healing, but I’m still going to hold firm that G Tristan Jarry has earned a 3-1-0 record filling in not because of his solid .926 season save percentage (though that doesn’t hurt), but because Crosby has scored a goal in every game but – you guessed it – Jarry’s one regulation loss.

Confidence – which I am led to believe is the word people are actually looking for when they discuss momentum in sports (I mean, “momentum” is technically mass x velocity, so the momentum of a sports team cannot change without either a plane or a player transaction) – is like hitting in baseball: it’s a contagious thing.

Star players are not star players simply because they can score or stop goals no one else can. Stars are stars because they can make those plays and make the athletes associated with them feel like they too can contribute to the ultimate goal and find wins and success.

Stars are leaders.

And that’s why stars have to perform their best. That’s why they have to have the best numbers on their team. It’s not to belittle the third and fourth liners, but it’s their success that should drive a team to achieve more.

Success breeds success.

In that same train of thought, leaders can’t create success from the rest of their team while they themselves are struggling to find their groove. Stars are stars because they find that motivation to excel within themselves, and then use that flame to light the others’ torches.

You might have noticed the thread that connects all of the players called out in this column: Toews, Karlsson, Burns, Pacioretty and Crosby are all captains. These players have been selected by their coaches and peers based not only on their undoubted skills, but also on their work-ethic and leadership abilities. They were honored with that distinction, so it is time for them to step up and serve the letter and crest on the front of their sweaters and get/keep their squads on track.

These teams are capable of winning; it just takes a little input from a star.

Numbers Game: Count Your Quarters

It’s December 1st which means all 31 NHL teams have passed the quarter mark of the regular season. Some teams have played almost 30 games while others have barely passed the 20.5 games required for the “quarter of the way through the season” moniker.

In the Western Conference, the Edmonton Oilers are bad, the Colorado Avalanche are okay, the Vegas Golden Knights are good and there’s a very real chance that the Arizona Coyotes barely surpass Colorado’s 22-win 2016-2017 season benchmark of “worst team in the Salary Cap Era”.

Meanwhile in the Eastern Conference, the Tampa Bay Lightning are thundering their way back into dominance over the rest of the league, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the real deal, the Montreal Canadiens are turning a corner after stumbling out the gate and the New Jersey Devils are good– too good.

Oh and then there’s the fact that the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins are quietly in the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference.

So with everything in mind, let’s use Microsoft Excel to help us predict the rest of the season, shall we?

Unlike my standings projections before the first puck dropped on the season, I haven’t added any Gut Feeling 2.0 to these predictions. There’s going to be some surprises and there’s going to be some things that are way off, considering the fact that an equation cannot predict injuries, streaks or things of that nature. What might look insane now, will look different (hopefully) in another 20 games or so.

Don’t worry, I’ll be sure to do another round of this around the All-Star Game.

The moral of the story here is that if you’re off to a bad start, like Edmonton, and you’re running up against a tight salary cap moving forward, it’s never too early to start counting your quarters and figuring out what assets you’ll be able to lose by the trade deadline.

If you’re a good team, like New Jersey, then it’s the perfect time to assess how far you think you’ll go and determine who might be right the addition at or before the deadline that’ll push you further than expected and maybe all the way to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.

2017-2018 Projected Standings after Two Months

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

  1. y-Tampa Bay Lightning, 101 points (25 GP so far)
  2. x-Boston Bruins, 98 points (23 GP so far)
  3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 94 points (27 GP so far)
  4. Montreal Canadiens, 92 points (27 GP so far)
  5. Detroit Red Wings, 89 points (26 GP so far)
  6. Ottawa Senators, 88 points (23 GP so far)
  7. Florida Panthers, 78 points (24 GP so far)
  8. Buffalo Sabres, 67 points (25 GP so far)

To keep things short, the Lightning and the Maple Leafs are still the best picks coming out of the Atlantic Division if you have your eyes set on trying to predict which teams might have a deep playoff run in 2018.

The Boston Bruins have been battling injuries all season long and while they’ve kept the pace with their youth-infused lineup, they still have a lot of development to go before they can reach a conference finals run, let alone Stanley Cup Final run. Ottawa’s decline continues to be one of the biggest surprises in the weakest division in the Eastern Conference. Other than that, nothing else is really groundbreaking here.

Metropolitan Division

  1. z-Pittsburgh Penguins, 102 points (26 GP so far)
  2. x-New York Islanders, 98 points (24 GP so far)
  3. x-Washington Capitals, 98 points (26 GP so far)
  4. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 97 points (25 GP so far)
  5. x-New York Rangers, 97 points (25 GP so far)
  6. New Jersey Devils, 94 points (24 GP so far)
  7. Philadelphia Flyers, 90 points (25 GP so far)
  8. Carolina Hurricanes, 84 points (23 GP so far)

In the Metropolitan Division the Pittsburgh Penguins look to regain their top-notch form as they’ve had a difficult time adjusting to life after Marc-Andre Fleury (and have especially struggled with a decimated defense from the offseason).

The Columbus Blue Jackets are likely to climb in later projections, based on their current performance, but again, since this is only based off of a formula in Microsoft Excel… Columbus will be just fine. They should be an underdog or a dark horse for Stanley Cup contention this season. This division will continue to be the tightest battle all season long, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see New Jersey inside or outside of the picture come April.

Western Conference

Central Division

  1. p-St. Louis Blues, 107 points (25 GP so far)
  2. x-Chicago Blackhawks, 100 points (25 GP so far)
  3. x-Nashville Predators, 98 points (25 GP so far)
  4. x-Winnipeg Jets, 97 points (25 GP so far)
  5. Dallas Stars, 93 points (25 GP so far)
  6. Minnesota Wild, 93 points (25 GP so far)
  7. Colorado Avalanche, 85 points (23 GP so far)

As exciting as the battle for the Metropolitan Division should continue to be this season, the Western Conference’s Central Division has plenty of counterpoints to offer for top-notch divisional battles and Stanley Cup contenders. This is the season for the St. Louis Blues (to at least make a run for the President’s Trophy).

Whether or not St. Louis can go further than their 2016 Western Conference Finals trip went and make it back to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 1970, only time can tell. Between the Blues, Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets, it’s safe to say one of your Stanley Cup finalists will be from the Central Division.

Pacific Division

  1. y-Vegas Golden Knights, 106 points (24 GP so far)
  2. x-San Jose Sharks, 101 points (23 GP so far)
  3. x-Los Angeles Kings, 99 points (26 GP so far)
  4. x-Anaheim Ducks, 98 points (25 GP so far)
  5. Vancouver Canucks, 90 points (26 GP so far)
  6. Calgary Flames, 89 points (25 GP so far)
  7. Edmonton Oilers, 73 points (26 GP so far)
  8. Arizona Coyotes, 65 points (28 GP so far)

In the biggest surprise this season, the Vegas Golden Knights are not only tracking for a postseason appearance– they’re on the rails to a Pacific Division winning season. Yes, the Los Angeles Kings are the only other hottest team in the Pacific, but there’s something to be said for the San Jose Sharks experience the last few seasons.

Just like the Central Division, Vegas, Los Angeles or San Jose would be safe bets for a deep playoff run. The Anaheim Ducks could make things interesting as they have always done, but there’s really nothing else that looks promising to make a surge in the standings and/or postseason. Sorry Oilers fans.


Need a reminder of what things looked like early in November? Here it is:

Down the Frozen River Podcast #82- Baby It’s Cole Outside

Nick and Connor analyze the Sami VatanenAdam Henrique trade between the Anaheim Ducks and New Jersey Devils, recap the standings at the end of November and talk what’s next for the Pittsburgh Penguins with Matt Murray out week-to-week. Connor also breaks down the potential scenarios for Ian Cole and the Penguins.

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.