Tag: Andrew Peeke

  • DeBrusk scores pair in overtime victory on the road for Boston

    DeBrusk scores pair in overtime victory on the road for Boston

    Jake DeBrusk continued his hot streak Monday night at Nationwide Arena as the Boston Bruins beat the Columbus Blue Jackets, 3-2, in overtime thanks to a game-winner from No. 74 in black and gold himself– which also happened to be his second goal of the game.

    DeBrusk has six goals in his last five games as the Bruins are now 7-1-0 in their last eight games, while Linus Ullmark (22-9-2, 2.63 goals-against average, .911 save percentage in 35 games played) made 20 saves on 22 shots against in the win for Boston.

    Columbus goaltender, Elvis Merzlikins (22-18-6, 3.40 goals-against average, .903 save percentage in 48 games played), stopped 34 out of 37 shots faced in the overtime loss.

    The B’s improved to 44-20-5 (93 points) overall and moved into 3rd place in the Atlantic Division as the Bruins hold the regulation wins tiebreaker with the Tampa Bay Lightning (Boston has 35 regulation wins to Tampa’s 33).

    The Blue Jackets, meanwhile, fell to 32-32-6 (70 points) on the season and remain in 6th place in the Metropolitan Division.

    Boston swept Columbus in their regular season series 3-0-0 for the first time since the 2013-14 season.

    Jakub Zboril (right ACL) was the only Bruin out due to injury on Monday, while head coach, Bruce Cassidy, made one change to his lineup– scratching Derek Forbort and replacing him with Josh Brown (while switching Mike Reilly back to his regular role as a left shot defender to Brown’s right shot on the third pairing, O.K. so technically two changes).

    Forbort joined Jack Studnicka, Marc McLaughlin, Connor Clifton and Anton Blidh on Boston’s list of healthy scratches in Columbus.

    Blue Jackets head coach, Brad Larsen, was back from the league’s COVID-19 protocol and returned to his regular job behind the bench after assistant coach, Pascal Vincent, filled in for Larsen.

    Emil Bemström (5) sped through the neutral zone on a breakout, got around Brandon Carlo and shot the puck past Ullmark high on the short side– giving Columbus the first lead of the night, 1-0, at 4:31 of the first period.

    Jakub Voracek (45) had the only assist on Bemström’s goal.

    A minute later, Carson Meyer tripped up Charlie McAvoy for his first career minor penalty in his first career National Hockey League game at 5:32.

    Boston did not convert on the ensuing power play, however, and cut their time on the advantage short as a result of McAvoy’s ensuing holding infraction at 6:13.

    After 1:19 of 4-on-4 action, the Blue Jackets had an abbreviated power play go by the wayside.

    Late in the period, Voracek and Trent Frederic received roughing minors at 14:45 and yielded some more 4-on-4 action that only lasted for a couple of seconds on the ensuing faceoff as Bruins forward, Brad Marchand, interfered with Justin Danforth at 14:47.

    Columbus had a rare 4-on-3 power play as a result for 1:58.

    The Blue Jackets did not score on the skater advantage with all that extra open ice.

    Shortly after he was freed from the penalty box, Marchand made a big hit along the wall as he checked Andrew Peeke hard into the boards– leading with his shoulder first, despite a violent end result in which Peeke was left visibly dazed after laying face down on the ice.

    Meanwhile, instead of stopping the play (as Columbus did not have possession, nor did the on-ice officials determine that there was the potential for a severe enough or significant injury to have just occurred), McAvoy retrieved a loose puck and setup DeBrusk on a breakaway before DeBrusk (20) shot the puck off of Merzlikins’ blocker and into the twine– tying the game, 1-1, in the process.

    McAvoy (40) had the only assist on DeBrusk’s goal at 18:32 of the first period while the ensuing celebration was subdued while the Blue Jackets’ athletic trainer tended to Peeke at the other end of the rink.

    DeBrusk, meanwhile, reached the 20-goal plateau for the second time in his career (five seasons) and first time since he had 27 goals in 68 games in 2018-19.

    The 25-year-old forward also extended his goal scoring streak to five games as a result and would finish the night with six goals in the last five games (another first for DeBrusk since Feb. 2019– a five-game goal scoring streak, that is).

    Voracek had a few choice words for the on-ice officials after allowing play to continue while Peeke laid face down on the ice and ended up receiving a misconduct as a result at 18:32.

    Less than a minute later, Nick Foligno tripped Oliver Bjorkstrand and cut a rut to the sin bin at 19:24 as a result.

    Columbus didn’t convert on the ensuing power play, however.

    As the first period came to a close, Bjorkstrand and Patrice Bergeron exchanged pleasantries– rendering roughing infractions for each of them at 20:00 of the opening frame.

    Entering the first intermission, the Bruins and Blue Jackets were tied, 1-1, despite Boston leading in shots on goal, 10-9.

    The B’s also held the advantage in blocked shots (3-2), takeaways (2-1) and faceoff win percentage (70-30), while Columbus led in giveaways (2-1) and hits (9-8).

    The Blue Jackets went 0/3 on the power play, while Boston was 0/1 on the skater advantage heading into the middle frame.

    Vladislav Gavrikov caught Taylor Hall with a high stick and drew blood at 2:25 of the second period– resulting in a four-minute double minor infraction as a result.

    Boston’s extended power play was cut short, however, as Hampus Lindholm was penalized for interference at 4:00 of the second period.

    After 2:00 of 4-on-4 action, the Bruins would go back on the power play for 25 seconds, but couldn’t convert on the abbreviated skater advantage.

    Shortly thereafter, Frederic kept the puck in the attacking zone as the Blue Jackets failed to clear it and Boston worked the rubber biscuit around the horn before Charlie Coyle spun away from his opponent and sent a pass to Craig Smith (16) for a wrist shot goal from the high slot under Merzlikins’ blocker.

    Coyle (25) and McAvoy (41) tallied the assists on Smith’s goal as the Bruins took a, 2-1, lead at 7:52 of the second period.

    After a stoppage midway through the middle frame, Peeke tried getting a few extra jabs at Marchand while DeBrusk stepped in as a scrum encircled the two initial skaters exchanging pleasantries.

    While DeBrusk should have gone to the box with Peeke for roughing, the on-ice officials instead assessed minors to Peeke and Marchand at 13:53– yielding more 4-on-4 action for what would be a pair of minutes until Sean Kuraly hooked David Pastrnak at 14:22.

    Boston’s abbreviated 4-on-3 power play went by without issue for Columbus’ penalty kill, however.

    Jake Christiansen then checked Frederic along the boards right around where Marchand and Peeke collided in the first period and Frederic skated off the ice and headed down the tunnel.

    The Bruins later tweeted during the final frame of regulation that Frederic would not return to the night’s action with an upper body injury.

    Boston struggled to get out of their own zone in the dying minute of the second period as Columbus miraculously kept the puck from exiting the attacking zone at the blue line with a quick reach into the sky to bat the puck back down to the ice.

    After sending it around the zone, Voracek fed Zach Werenski through the slot as Werenski (11) pinched in from the point and one-timed the puck past Ullmark’s glove side– tying the game, 2-2, in the process.

    Voracek (46) and Patrik Laine (27) had the assists while Cassidy used his coach’s challenge to review if the Blue Jackets had technically entered the zone offside as a result of their effort to keep the puck in the offensive zone seconds prior.

    The ensuing video review was inconclusive, which mean that the call on the ice would stand.

    Columbus had tied the game, 2-2, at 19:44 of the second period and the B’s were assessed a bench minor for delay of game as Smith skated over to the box to serve the infraction.

    Through 40 minutes of play, the score was tied, 2-2, despite Boston leading in shots on goal, 21-14, including an, 11-5, advantage in the second period alone.

    The Bruins also led in blocked shots (7-6), takeaways (4-2) and faceoff win% (63-37), while the Blue Jackets led in hits (18-10).

    Both teams had two giveaways each and were 0/4 on the power play heading into the final frame of regulation.

    Peeke shoved Marchand to the ice with an open palm while the Boston forward entered the attacking zone and presented the Bruins with an early power play at 3:52 of the third period.

    Boston’s time on the skater advantage was cut short again, however, as the night’s trend continued with Bergeron hooking Gustav Nyquist to prevent a shorthanded scoring opportunity at 4:39 of the third period.

    As a result, the two teams were back to 4-on-4 play, while Pastrnak shortly made an exit from the game with what might have been a core injury after he got tangled up with Gavrikov and fell awkwardly about midway through the final frame of regulation.

    After 60 minutes, the Bruins and Blue Jackets remained tied, 2-2, on the scoreboard, despite Boston holding a, 34-22, advantage in shots on goal– including a, 13-8, advantage in the third period alone.

    Columbus attained the advantage in takeaways (7-4) and hits (24-15), while the B’s led in blocked shots (12-7), giveaways (3-2) and faceoff win% (64-37).

    As no penalties were called in overtime, both teams finished the night 0/5 on the power play on Monday.

    Cassidy started Bergeron, Marchand and McAvoy in overtime, while Larsen countered with Voracek, Laine and Werenski.

    It wasn’t long before the two teams made one change and Lindholm made a timely interception before giving the puck to DeBrusk (21) for a pump fake catch and release game-winning overtime goal on the blocker side at 1:03 of the extra frame.

    Lindholm (21) had the only assist on DeBrusk’s second goal of the game as a result and the Bruins won, 3-2.

    Boston finished the night leading in shots on goal, 37-22– including a, 3-0, advantage in overtime alone.

    The Bruins left Nationwide Arena leading in blocked shots (12-7) and faceoff win% (64-36), while the Blue Jackets exited their own building with the advantage in giveaways (4-3) and hits (24-15).

    With the win, the B’s improved to 17-3-1 in their last 21 games– including a 7-1-0 record in their last eight games.

    Boston is now 7-3 in overtime (9-5 past regulation overall) this season, while Columbus fell to 6-4 in the extra frame (10-6 past regulation overall).

    The Bruins also improved to 12-13-3 (5-6-2 on the road) when allowing the game’s first goal, 14-5-2 (8-2-1 on the road) when tied after the first period and 12-4-0 (5-3-0 on the road) when tied after two periods this season.

    The Blue Jackets fell to 17-10-2 (11-6-2 at home) when scoring first, 17-11-3 (10-6-3 at home) when tied after one and 6-6-2 (4-2-2 at home) when tied after two periods in 2021-22.

    Boston continues their four-game road trip (1-0-0) Tuesday night in Detroit before heading to Tampa on Friday and Washington D.C. on Sunday.

    The Bruins return to TD Garden for a three-game homestand starting April 12th.

  • Haula scores twice in, 5-2, victory for Bruins over Columbus

    Haula scores twice in, 5-2, victory for Bruins over Columbus

    Erik Haula opened the night’s scoring and had the eventual game-winning goal late in the third period before the Boston Bruins added a pair of empty net goals in their, 5-2, win against the Columbus Blue Jackets Saturday night at TD Garden.

    Jeremy Swayman (20-9-3, 2.23 goals-against average, .920 save percentage in 33 games played) made 22 saves on 24 shots against in the win for Boston and became the seventh rookie netminder to amass a 20-win season in a Bruins uniform in his first full season.

    Swayman joins Tuukka Rask (22 wins in 2009-10), Andrew Raycroft (29 wins in 2003-04) and Marco Baron (22 wins in 1981-82) as the only rookie goaltenders to do so with the B’s in the NHL’s expansion era (since 1967-68).

    Columbus goaltender, Elvis Merzlikins (22-18-5, 3.42 goals-against average, .902 save percentage in 47 games played), stopped 37 out of 40 shots faced in the loss.

    The Bruins improved to 43-20-5 (91 points) on the season and remain in 4th place in the Atlantic Division– two points behind the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning (93 points) for 2nd and 3rd in the division, respectively, while maintaining a stronghold on the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference over the Washington Capitals (84 points).

    Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets fell to 32-32-5 (69 points) overall and remain in 6th place in the Metropolitan Division.

    The B’s are now 2-0-0 against Columbus this season with their final matchup in their 2021-22 regular season series set for Monday night (April 4th) at Nationwide Arena.

    The Bruins went 0-1-1 against the Blue Jackets in 2019-20 and did not play each other last season due to the temporarily realigned divisions in the condensed 56-game schedule as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

    Craig Smith and Nick Foligno returned to action in their regular roles on the third and fourth lines, respectively, as the former missed Thursday night’s, 8-1, win against New Jersey due to a non-COVID related illness and the latter was “day-to-day” with a lower body injury.

    As a result, Anton Blidh and Marc McLaughlin joined Jack Studnicka, Josh Brown and Connor Clifton in the press box as Boston’s healthy scratches Saturday night.

    Brown, however, left Thursday’s win with an upper body injury and took part in Saturday’s morning skate without issue.

    Jakub Zboril remains out of commission for the Bruins until next season as a result of his knee injury and subsequent surgery back in December.

    In addition to the return of Smith and Foligno among his forwards, Bruce Cassidy moved Mike Reilly to the right side of the third defensive pairing in place of Brown and inserted Derek Forbort on the left side to start the night.

    Columbus, meanwhile, was short behind the bench as head coach, Brad Larsen, is in COVID-19 protocol, so assistant coach, Pascal Vincent, called the shots for the Blue Jackets on Saturday.

    B’s defender, Charlie McAvoy skated in his 300th career NHL game Saturday night after Boston and Columbus honored Foligno for having played in his 1,000th career game on March 15th.

    Foligno spent parts of nine seasons with the Blue Jackets and served as captain from 2015-21, hence the delay in his special ceremony, in which the Bruins presented him with a fancy watch, fancy wine, a fancy painting and the traditional silver stick.

    Late in the opening frame, Taylor Hall worked the puck deep into the offensive zone before sending a pass back to Hampus Lindholm.

    Lindholm wrapped around the net and proceeded to feed McAvoy with a pass as McAvoy crashed the slot and sent a shot off of Merzlikins’ pad before the puck trickled through the crease.

    Haula (11) was in the right place at the right time on the doorstep to bank the rubber biscuit off of a body and into the twine– giving the Bruins a, 1-0, lead in the process at 15:09 of the first period.

    Hall (36) and McAvoy (38) tallied the assists as Boston got on the scoreboard first.

    The B’s didn’t have the lead for long, however, as they were caught ion a lapse in the final minute of the first period.

    Swayman mishandled a puck that went in and out of his glove before Gustav Nyquist (17) scored on the rebound with 27 seconds left before the first intermission– tying the game, 1-1, as a result.

    Cole Sillinger (11) and Andrew Peeke (14) had the assists as Columbus evened things up at 19:32 of the first period.

    Entering the first intermission, the Bruins and Blue Jackets were tied, 1-1, despite Boston holding a, 15-5, advantage in shots on goal.

    The B’s also led in blocked shots (7-4), hits (10-9) and faceoff win percentage (56-44), while Columbus held the advantage in takeaways (4-0) and giveaways (10-5).

    Neither team had yet to appear on the power play heading into the middle frame.

    Yegor Chinakhov sent a bad angle shot off the apron of the net before Justin Danforth (7) scored on the rebound while crashing the slot to give the Blue Jackets a, 2-1, lead 42 seconds into the second period.

    Chinakhov (7) and Sean Kuraly (14) notched the assists on Danforth’s goal and the Bruins trailed for the majority of the middle frame as a result.

    Hall slashed Gavin Bayreuther and presented Columbus with the first power play of the night at 3;27, but the Blue Jackets failed to convert on the skater advantage.

    Instead, late in the second period, the Bruins dominated possession in the attacking zone and worked the puck from Jake DeBrusk to Patrice Bergeron for a fake shot turned pass to Brad Marchand, whereby Marchand (31) sent the puck into the twine on a “tic-tac-goal” effort while Merzlikins dove across the crease– paddle first– in desperation.

    Bergeron (33) and DeBrusk (13) had the assists as Boston tied things up, 2-2, at 18:13 of the second period.

    Through 40 minutes of action, the two teams were tied, 2-2, on the scoreboard despite the Bruins leading in shots on goal, 27-20.

    Columbus actually held the advantage in shots on net in the second period alone, 15-12, and led in blocked shots (10-8), takeaways (11-2), giveaways (15-11) and hits (24-18).

    Boston, meanwhile, led in faceoff win% (52-48).

    The Blue Jackets were 0/1 on the power play heading into the final frame and the Bruins had yet to see any action in the skater advantage.

    Not much was happening on the event sheet until after the midpoint of the third period, when, at 14:06, Peeke hooked DeBrusk and yielded a power play to Boston for the first time Saturday night.

    With 4:46 remaining in the game, Cassidy used his timeout to rally his skaters on the advantage.

    Brandon Carlo sent a wrist shot from the point that Haula (12) redirected over the right pad and under Merzlikins’ blocker to give the Bruins a, 3-2, lead at 16:06 of the third period.

    Carlo (9) and Lindholm (20) tallied the assists on Haula’s power-play goal and the B’s never looked back.

    With 2:12 remaining, Vincent pulled his goaltender for an extra attacker. It backfired.

    Boston had an easy breakout as Marchand flipped a pass to DeBrusk (19) on the opposite side of the ice for a lay-up empty net goal– his fourth goal in as many games– giving the Bruins a, 4-2, lead in the process at 18:00 of the third period.

    Marchand (39) and McAvoy (39) had the assists on DeBrusk’s goal.

    With 1:47 remaining, Merzlikins vacated the crease once more.

    Vincent used his timeout after a stoppage with 1:24 remaining, but the Blue Jackets couldn’t muster anything.

    Boston botched a couple of chances at the empty twine at the other end of the rink before Bergeron fed the rubber biscuit to Charlie Coyle (15) for an empty net goal and a three-goal lead at that at 19:54.

    Bergeron (34) and Marchand (40) notched the assists and at the final horn the Bruins had won, 5-2, and finished the night leading in shots on goal, 42-24– including a, 15-4, advantage in the third period alone.

    Boston left their own ice leading in blocked shots (18-12) and faceoff win% (61-39), while Columbus exited TD Garden with the advantage in giveaways (16-14) and hits (33-24).

    The Blue Jackets went 0/1 on the power play, while the Bruins went 1/1 on the skater advantage on Saturday night.

    Boston improved to 16-3-1 in their last 20 games, as well as 32-7-2 (15-4-1) when scoring the game’s first goal this season.

    The B’s are now 13-5-2 (6-3-1 at home) when tied after one period and 11-4-0 (7-1-0 at home) when tied after two periods in 2021-22 as well.

    Columbus fell to 15-22-4 (8-14-2 on the road) when allowing the game’s first goal, 17-11-2 (7-5-0 on the road) when tied after the first period and 6-6-1 (2-4-0 on the road) when tied after the second period this season.

    The Bruins hit the road next week for four games beginning on Monday in Columbus before swinging through Detroit on Tuesday, Tampa on Friday (April 8th) and Washington, D.C. next Sunday (April 10th).

    Boston returns for a three-game homestand on April 12th.

  • Columbus Blue Jackets 2020-21 Forecast and 20-Game Update

    Columbus Blue Jackets 2020-21 Forecast and 20-Game Update

    Welcome back to another exciting rendition of “let’s trust the guy with a degree in communication to do some basic math stuff”.

    As you are hopefully already aware, I kept the 2019-20 forecasts under wraps simply because I didn’t have the time and/or motivation to write up an explanation for each and every one of them.

    Even still, I’m “behind” on 2020-21 posts given that the Columbus Blue Jackets have already reached the 20-game mark of the season.

    That’s why we’re looking at both what the expectations were coming into the condensed 56-game schedule, as well as how things are holding up after the first, well, almost half the season.

    If you’re a fan of numbers and things, you probably already read about this “catch-up format” in my first forecast for the Boston Bruins roster entering 2020-21. If you’re just a Blue Jackets fan, I’ve done my best to paraphrase my own writing, but you can go back and read it if you feel inclined.

    As always, keep in mind that my degree is in communication and my minor was in sport management. My Intro to Stats class only fulfilled the math portion of my “general education” and met once-a-week at night for two-and-a-half hours in the fall 2013 semester.

    I actually learned how to use the forecast function in Microsoft Excel in one of my sport management classes. Besides that, I got a “C” in that Intro to Stats class, so my credentials for doing this seem promising, right?

    First year players are impossible to predict until they’ve had at least one National Hockey League game under their belt.

    Young players that have had minimal NHL experience may also reflect “inflated” results– Liam Foudy’s forecasted assists entering the 2020-21 season has been highlighted for this reason.

    Entering this season, he had only been part of two career NHL games and had one assist in that span. The forecasting function accounts for a player’s entire career and does some mathematics to come up with something over a predetermined number of games for the upcoming season (in this year’s case, 56).

    In other words, Foudy’s forecast after 20 team games played should look a bit more “realistic”, for the lack of a better term.

    A forecast is not the same as predicting pace.

    Foudy has three assists in 12 games played in 2020-21, for example, and is forecasted to finish with about 11 on the season, whereas he is currently on pace for about eight helpers.

    There are numerous variables that can, and will, impact a players’ performance throughout the year, including injuries, being a healthy scratch (or on the taxi squad), other American Hockey League related or waiver related transactions, sickness, COVID protocol, suspensions and general superstitions related to individual routines, beliefs, etc. (getting enough sleep before a game, wearing a certain lucky tie, using the same undershirt or shoulder pads for the last 13 years or whatever).

    Players can get “hot” or “cold” at any point.

    It’s not something that can be accounted for in a numerical forecast that sets aside the “eye test” until you try to figure out the nuances of how or why a player is playing the way they are playing.

    In a perfect timeline, this forecast pretends nothing bad could ever happen and every Blue Jackets player lives up to their expectations. In reality, some will pan out, some will exceed expectations and some will fall short for whatever reason.

    It’s an educated guess for an outcome in a sport that’s highly unpredictable due to its collectivistic nature and sheer puck luck.


    Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 0 Games (56 Games Remaining)

    First up, let’s take a look at how things were expected to go coming into the 2020-21 season.

    Prior to being traded to the Winnipeg Jets for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic, Dubois was forecasted to lead Columbus in scoring with 16-22–38 totals this season.

    New acquisition, Max Domi, was forecasted as a close second to Dubois with 37 points– leading the team in assists in the process with 25 (among NHL regulars last season, since Foudy technically was forecasted to lead in assists among Blue Jackets with 28).

    Of course, Dubois was traded and Laine and Roslovic are off to hot starts with Columbus– scoring goals in bunches when they find the scoresheet, it seems. We’ll get to that in a minute.

    Cam Atkinson was forecasted to score 19 goals prior to the start of the 2020-21 season, which leads Dubois’ 16 forecasted goals and Gustav Nyquist’s 14 forecasted goals on the roster.

    Dubois, of course, was traded and Nyquist is out due to injury for most of this season, so… that checks out.

    On defense, Zach Werenski and Seth Jones were expected to continue to lead with the way with 33 and 27 points, respectively, from the blue line.

    Both defenders are expected to amass 21 assists this season– good enough for the third most forecasted among Blue Jackets skaters entering this season.

    In the crease, John Tortorella will have to find the right balance between Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins.

    There’s potential for a really solid goaltending duo in Columbus if Korpisalo is the starter and can best his 2.66 forecasted goals against average, as well as his forecasted .911 save percentage, while Merzlikins manages to find a way to reach his 2.35 forecasted GAA and .923 forecasted SV%.

    Of course, after 20 team games played, Merzlikins is currently out with an upper body injury, so time will tell if he can return to form.

    Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 20 Games (36 Games Remaining)

    Through 20 games of the 2020-21 season, the Blue Jackets are three points outside of the last playoff spot in the Discover NHL Central Division, trailing the Chicago Blackhawks for this season’s 4th place cutoff line.

    The acquisition of Laine and Roslovic have been quite a welcome sight for Columbus fans, though consistency from the rest of the lineup remains to be an issue.

    Laine, however, is currently forecasted to lead the team in goals (26) and points (46), while Roslovic is on track for 10-17–27 totals, which is about what he had in 71 games with the Jets last season (29 points).

    Using the current forecasted totals, Roslovic is on track for about .551 points per game this season. He had .408 points per game with Winnipeg in 2019-20.

    Atkinson remains in the top-three in scoring, trailing Laine in goals and points with 20 forecasted goals and 39 forecasted points, respectively, while Oliver Bjorkstrand is currently forecasted to amass 15-21–36 totals (the third most on the current roster).

    On the blue line, Jones leads the way among defenders in points (32), as well as all skaters in assists with 27 forecasted assists through 20 team games played in the 2020-21 season.

    Werenski is more in line with what you’d expect from a young defender of his caliber (8-16–24 forecasted totals) and has missed time due to injury, so that’s clearly a factor in his forecasted drop from before the season began to now.

    In the crease, Korpisalo is sure to get more starts than Merzlikins as the latter is currently injured.

    Korpisalo’s current forecast yields a goals against average between 2.59-2.63, while Merzlikins is on track for a 2.29-2.33 in however many games he ends up getting.

    Why the range in GAA?

    That’s new for this season.

    It’s just to show a range between what the forecasted total is according to the model and what the adjusted forecast shows (calculated based on the forecasted goals allowed/forecasted minutes multiplied by 60, as one would traditionally do with goals allowed/minutes played multiplied by 60 to determine GAA).

    I’m no statistician and I felt like there might be a way to try to get a better read on how things are going for goaltenders (with or without enough necessary data to yield a “realistic” result).

    Don’t make any bets using only this forecast. If you’re a professional, you probably already know that.

    Anyway, Korpisalo has a forecasted range between .912 and .913 in save percentage through 20 team games played and Merzlikins is on track for between a .923 and a .924 in SV%.

    Again, a similar principle applies here.

    One end of the range is the straight up forecast, while the other is influenced by forecasted saves/forecasted shots against.

    Well, that does it for this forecast. Tune in after 40 team games played to see how things might go down the stretch (the final 16 games this season).

  • Bruins at Blue Jackets Preview: 4/2/2019

    As the Boston Bruins (47-23-9, 103 points, 2nd in the Atlantic Division) continue their three-game road trip (0-1-0) with a visit to Nationwide Arena on Tuesday against the Columbus Blue Jackets (45-30-4, 94 points, 4th in the Metropolitan Division), they will do so without the services of Danton Heinen in the lineup.

    Heinen is out Tuesday with an illness and will be replaced by Chris Wagner on the third line with Marcus Johnansson at left wing and Charlie Coyle at center.

    Boston enters Columbus 18-15-6 on the road this season– coming off a, 6-3, loss to the Detroit Red Wings on Sunday– tied in the season series, 1-1-0, with the Blue Jackets after suffering a, 7-4, loss on March 12th last time in Columbus and winning, 2-1, in overtime at TD Garden on March 16th.

    The Bruins finished the month of March, 9-6-0, while the Blue Jackets– winners of their last five games– went 9-6-1 last month.

    Columbus returns home Tuesday night after a, 4-0, shutout victory– Sergei Bobrovsky‘s league-leading 9th shutout of the season– over the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center on Sunday.

    The B’s have lost nine games in regulation since Jan. 1st and are looking to clinch home ice in their First Round matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs with a win against Columbus and a loss for Toronto in any fashion against the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday or an overtime/shootout loss to the Blue Jackets and the Maple Leafs lose in regulation on Tuesday.

    If Boston doesn’t clinch home ice on Tuesday, their next chance to do so would be Thursday night. More on that as it develops.

    With the exception of Wagner in for Heinen, Bruins head coach, Bruce Cassidy, isn’t expected to make any other lineup changes despite the current two-game losing streak Boston is on.

    Connor Clifton and Steven Kampfer remain healthy scratches, while John Moore (upper body) and Sean Kuraly (right hand fracture) are still out due to injury.

    Tuukka Rask (26-12-5 record, 2.43 goals against average, .914 save percentage in 44 games played) will get the start in the crease for Boston against Columbus.

    The Blue Jackets can clinch a playoff berth with a win Tuesday night in their final home game of the regular season and a Montreal Canadiens loss in regulation against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

    Columbus has the tiebreaker in regulation-plus-overtime wins over the Canadiens and Hurricanes with 44 ROWs to Carolina’s 41 and Montreal’s 40 this season.

    Former Bruin, Adam McQuaid (day-to-day), remains out of the lineup for the Blue Jackets since being injured on an interference penalty by Canadiens forward, Andrew Shaw, on March 28th.

    Markus Hannikainen, Lukas Sedlak, Eric Robinson, Adam Clendening, Andrew Peeke, Keith Kinkaid and Elvis Merzlikins are all expected to be scratches as well for Columbus against Boston.

    Blue Jackets head coach, John Tortorella, will go with Bobrovsky (36-23-1, 2.55 GAA, .914 SV% in 60 GP) in net as the two clubs close out their regular season series.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #85- Schenn Zen

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #85- Schenn Zen

    Nick and Connor breakdown the St. Louis Blues (#SchennZen), Brian Boyle’s success, the Disney deal with 21st Century Fox and preview the 2018 IIHF World Junior Championship.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.