Down the Frozen River

Tag: Anaheim Ducks

  • November 20 – Day 48 – Where’s the offense?

    We’re only three days away from the all-important American Thanksgiving holiday! Every team (well, maybe not Arizona and Buffalo) will be working to pack as many points into these days as possible, which should make for some exciting action.

    Said action is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. with three games (Columbus at Buffalo [SN1], Arizona at Toronto and Calgary at Washington [TVAS]), followed by a pair (Winnipeg at Nashville and New Jersey at Minnesota) an hour later. Finally, tonight’s nightcap featuring Anaheim at San Jose (SN) will drop the puck at 10:30 p.m. to close out the evening. All times Eastern.

    Separated by only a point in the Pacific Division standings, there’s no way we’re missing a rivalry game pitting NorCal against SoCal. Off to the SAP Center with us!

     

    Two teams undoubtedly working to maximize their points this week are the 9-7-3 Ducks and the 10-8-0 Sharks, as both are currently on the outside of the top-eight in the Western Conference.

    Even though it’s currently riding a two-game winning streak, Anaheim’s offense has left much to be desired this season, as it ranks 11th-worst in the NHL by averaging only 2.84 goals-per-game. Of course, what should we expect from a team that is playing Derek Grant as its top-line center?

    Grant is in the position he’s in due to the Ducks’ roster being absolutely devastated by injuries. RW Jared Boll, W Patrick Eaves, C Ryan Getzlaf, W Ondrej Kase and F Ryan Kesler are all on injured reserve, which has thrust immense pressure on F Rickard Rakell and W Corey Perry to keep Head Coach Randy Carlyle‘s machine running as smooth as possible. All things considered, they’ve both performed very well, as Rakell has scored a team-high seven goals (7-9-16 totals), thanks in large part to Perry’s club-leading 11 assists (3-11-14).

    They’ve also received decent backup from second-liner F Andrew Cogliano, who provides .58 points-per-game, but it gets harder and harder to find depth scoring when young players like Grant, LW Nick Ritchie, F Kevin Roy and W Logan Shaw are being thrust onto the senior team.

    Even though they’re performing with varying degrees of success, the youngsters have managed only 8-13-21 totals in their 57 man games (.37 points-per-game), playing predominantly in the bottom-six positions formerly occupied by those that have been promoted to the top lines. It’s hard to fault them for Anaheim’s struggles, but it’s equally hard to imagine the Ducks having much success until the end of December when Getzlaf and Kesler should be able to return to the ice.

    Making a difficult situation even tougher, Anaheim has to square off against a Sharks team that plays defense extremely well, as San Jose leads the league in both shots against (28.2 per game) and goals against (2.28 per game).

    Of course, that leaves the Sharks’ offense to blame for them also sitting on the outside of the current playoff picture. Even with the incredible secret weapon named D Brent Burns at their disposal, Head Coach Peter DeBoer’s club has managed only 2.44 goals-per-game, the fourth-worst effort in the NHL.

    Unfortunately for San Jose, they don’t have the excuse of a long list of injuries like Anaheim, as it’s only been confirmed that F Joe Pavelski has not been playing at 100 percent. Instead, everyone not named F Logan Couture – who has managed .83 points-per-game –  has simply struggled to start the season.

    Probably the best statistic to showcase the Sharks’ lack of rhythm can be found within the leader board for their clubhouse Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy (if this trophy exists, it has to be called the Patrick Marleau Award). With his 10-5-15 totals, Couture is easily leading the race, but W Joonas Donskoi is in second place with only five goals to his name. In fact, only 13 different players have found the back of the net this season for San Jose, only a year removed from 26 different players scoring at least one goal.

    One of the most obvious players still looking for his groove is last year’s Norris Trophy winner. After posting career-high 29-47-76 totals last year, Burns has yet to find the back of the net on any of his 75 shots on goal. It has become painfully obvious how important the versatility of Burns is to this team, so the sooner he can find his rhythm, the better the Sharks’ chances of getting into the tournament

    Rivalry games have a way of bringing out the best in any team, regardless of how well or how poor it’s been playing lately. That being said, I’m still leaning towards G Martin Jones and the Sharks beating Anaheim since D John Gibson made 50 saves in yesterday’s victory over the Panthers.

    After chasing G Jonathan Quick 11:22 into the game, the Vegas Golden Knights beat the Los Angeles Kings 4-2 at T-Mobile Arena in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    The reason Quick was pulled shortly after the midway point of the first period is because he allowed Vegas to score three unanswered goals on only nine shots faced (.667 save percentage).

    The first of those was struck only 55 seconds into the contest courtesy of a wrist shot by First Star of the Game William Karlsson (Reilly Smith). The Golden Knights’ advantage was doubled to two goals at the 9:21 mark by Second Star Cody Eakin (Brendan Leipsic), followed only 2:01 later by Karlsson’s (Smith) second tally of the night, a wrister that proved to be the game-winner.

    This goal was all due to a careless mistake by Quick while he was playing behind his own net. Intending to dish the puck to D Derek Forbort in the right corner, the goaltender fanned on the pass and left it unattended in the trapezoid. Before he could decide whether to repossess the puck or get back to his crease, Smith took control of the situation and centered a pass to Karlsson at the right post, who played it with his right skate to slide it behind his left leg to the blade of his stick and into the net – no matter how hard D Drew Doughty tried to keep the puck from crossing the goal line.

    After Quick was replaced by backup G Darcy Kuemper, the Knights did not find the back of the net again while he was in the crease. Solidifying the defensive end was a major boost to the Kings’ morale, because Trevor Lewis (Alex Iafallo) finally got them on the board at the 8:35 mark of the second period.

    That positive momentum carried into the third period, and Los Angeles finally sneaked a second goal past Third Star G Maxime Lagace with 8:15 remaining in regulation: a wrister by Tanner Pearson to set the score at 3-2.

    Since they were unable to beat Lagace a third time with only five skaters, the Kings pulled Kuemper late in the third period for an extra attacker. It was then, with 62 seconds remaining before the final horn, that Alex Tuch (Eakin) scored the last goal of the game on an empty net to set the 4-2 final score.

    Lagace earned the victory after saving 27-of-29 shots faced (.931 save percentage), and Kuemper finished the night saving all 30 shots he faced in 47:23 of play for no decision.

    The Golden Knights’ home victory is the third-straight and sixth in the past seven days by hosts in the DtFR Game of the Day series. The homers now have an impressive 26-17-5 record that is 10 points better than the visitors.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #80- Depth and Taxes

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #80- Depth and Taxes

    Nick and Connor recap the 2017 SAP NHL Global Series, talk transactions and go long about the Boston Bruins. Additionally, the guys discussed the Radko Gudas incident and never actually say how much time he should be sitting out for his shenanigans.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • Merkle’s Weekly Bumblings: Week 5

    Player of the Week: Nikita Kucherov

    Tampa is kind of making these choices too easy every week.

    The hottest team in the league continued to roll, and the hottest line in the league followed suit. Linemates Vladislav Namestnikov (4 goals, 1 assist) and Steven Stamkos (1 goal, 5 assists) were certainly no slouches, but Kucherov’s 2 goals and 7 points in 3 games were easily the most impressive output of the week, especially considering both goals and 6 of those points were in the first 2 games of the week.

    Kucherov is even being talked about as having a shot at 50 goals in 50 games. While it’s certainly still quite a ways away, it will definitely be interesting to see if he can reach the fabled mark.

    Team of the Week: Toronto Maple Leafs

    Fans of Steve Dangle’s LFR series will know that this was a week chock full of victory puppies.

    After a very shaky stretch that saw the Leafs nearly fall all the way back to a .500 record after a scorching start, things looked increasingly bleak as they learned they’d be without superstar Auston Matthews heading into this week’s 4-game schedule. But the loss of #34 seemed to light a spark under his teammates’ collective tails.

    Toronto opened the week hosting the Golden Knights and whoever they could find willing to throw on some goalie pads (we love ya, Max) and the two squads treated us to an extremely fun night that ended in a 4-3 Leafs victory on the strength of a silky shootout goal from Mitch Marner. They would follow that effort up with a 4-2 victory over Minnesota, heading into a back-to-back home-and-home with arch rival Boston.

    Now, the Bruins are more Providence than Boston right now as they deal with a slew of injuries, particularly in the forward group, but credit them for putting up one heck of a fight at the ACC on Friday night as they came just 60 seconds from victory before James van Hockey (who notably had 4 points in the 2 games against the Bruins) tied the game and sent it to overtime. In overtime, Patrick Marleau touched the ice, so the team he played for won the game. (If you’re not familiar with Marleau’s ridiculous GWG stats, go have a look. Legitimately about 1/5th of his career goals have won a game.)

    Saturday night the Leafs would wrap up a Matthews-less week 4-0 after a 4-1 victory over the Bruins in Boston, with backup goalie Curtis McElhinney shining in net. The Leafs now get 4 days of rest, riding a boatload of momentum, and likely will see the return of Matthews the next time they hit the ice. Maybe hope your team doesn’t play them anytime soon.

    Game of the Week: Los Angeles Kings 4 @ Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT), Tuesday November 7th

    The NHL likes to think of Wednesday as rivalry night, but boy were they a day late this week.

    What was easily the most entertaining game of the year to this point (in this humble writer’s opinion) saw some fantastic stat lines. 7 goals, 79 shots, 54 hits, 51 penalty minutes, and 12 power plays should tell you what sort of game you missed if you didn’t happen to catch this barn-burner.

    To put the insanity of this game into simple terms, Jared Boll opened the scoring. Yeah, that Jared Boll! Isn’t that spectacular?! Like, okay, Brandon Montour did 99% of the work and just had his wrap-around attempt bounce onto Boll’s stick so he could hack it into an open net, but who really cares? Somebody get that man a cookie.

    Sami Vatanen would send the Ducks up 2-0 later in the 1st just as their power play opportunity expired, and for most of the 1st period the Ducks looked like they had the game by the throat. If not for some simply spectacular goaltending (see also: strategical flailing) by Jonathan Quick, this game could have gotten out of hand early. But after watching their goaltender perform miracles for most of the opening frame, the Kings decided maybe they should help him or something, so Anze Kopitar figured he’d go ahead and score a goal with just over 3 minutes remaining to send the teams to the locker rooms with Anaheim leading 2-1.

    The second period saw less offense and more punches in the face. Jonathan Quick attempted to help Derek Forbort ruin Corey Perry‘s day, but the referees felt that someone with a full cage getting into fisticuffs with someone who isn’t wearing a full cage isn’t decidedly fair, so Andy Andreoff (great name, btw) had to go to the penalty box and feel Quick’s shame for him. Jared Boll would later fight Andreoff, I would assume feeling that Andy should earn his own time in the penalty box and not just bum it off of others. Oh, also Rickard Rakell and Adrian Kempe scored goals, so that was kinda neat.

    The Kings absolutely mugged the Ducks in the 3rd, racking up 17 shots on John Gibson to just 6 mustered against them, but only Dustin Brown managed to get one past the Anaheim netminder, so off to bonus hockey we would go, knotted at 3. It would take nearly 4 minutes of 4-on-4 madness to decide the game, but finally Nick Shore would complete the Kings’ comeback and end a terrific night of hockey and shenanigans.

    News, Notes, & Nonsense:

    Jarome Iginla is still unsigned (podcast listeners will appreciate that), but he says he’s not ready to retire. I think he should play on a line with Jagr in Calgary, and we can nickname the line the Geri-hat-tricks or something like that.

    Roberto Luongo picked up career win number 455 this week, passing Curtis Joseph for 4th all-time in that category. I’m pretty sure nobody above him is better at self-deprecating Twitter humor, though, so really he’s probably the greatest of all time.

    Brian Boyle scored his first goal since returning to the Devils lineup, and his celebration was pretty much the most sincere display of happiness that doesn’t include a dog that you’ll ever see.

    The Hockey Hall of Fame inductee class of Danielle Goyette, Clare Drake, Jeremy Jacobs, Dave Andreychuk, Mark Recchi, Teemu Selanne, and Paul Kariya was one for the ages, and if you need a solid laugh, check out the back-and-forth between longtime friends Selanne and Kariya, some of the finest chirping you will ever find.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #78- Just Give Them Actual Sweaters

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #78- Just Give Them Actual Sweaters

    Nick and Connor rant about the standings entering November, how good the New Jersey Devils and Vancouver Canucks are and blast the 2018 Winter Games jerseys for Canada and USA (they’re bad, very bad).

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • November 3 – Day 31 – Campbell Bowl rematch

    This had better be an exciting weekend of hockey, because Friday’s slate of games is extremely light. The action doesn’t start until 9 p.m. Eastern time when New Jersey visits Edmonton (NHLN/SN/TVAS), which is followed an hour later by tonight’s nightcap: Nashville at Anaheim.

    There’s little more fun to feature than a rematch of last season’s playoffs, and that’s exactly what we get at the Honda Center this evening.

     

    Who can forget last May’s thrilling Conference Finals series between these clubs? Even though C Ryan Getzlaf and the Ducks were the lone Western Conference team to escape Bridgestone Arena’s crazy atmosphere with a victory last postseason (a 3-2 overtime win in Game 4 to level the series at two-apiece), they could do nothing to break through G Pekka Rinne only two days later at the Honda Center, and even less to stop C Colton Sissons‘ Game 6 hat trick to send the Preds to their first-ever Stanley Cup Final.

    And even though that was last season, don’t think for even one minute that the Ducks aren’t interested in exacting a little revenge against Nashville for stealing home ice away from them.

    If 6-5-1 Anaheim wants to do that, it’ll need to improve on October’s limited chemistry. So far, the Ducks have struggled to find a good rhythm due to D Kevin Bieksa, W Patrick Eaves, D Cam Fowler, Getzlaf and F Ryan Kesler all being on injured reserve.

    Yes, you read that correctly: all five of those players are injured right now. With the exception of Eaves, who was a trade deadline acquisition last February, all of those players have been staples of the Ducks’ lineup since at least the 2015-’16 season.

    Getzlaf’s absence is certainly the most notable, as he’s been a member of the club since its Mighty Ducks days. If you put much stock in Hockey Reference’s point shares statistic, Getzlaf has been responsible for an average of 7.6 points in the standings per season since his 2005-’06 debut (to compare, Anaheim’s leading skater in point shares last season was Fowler, who individually accounted for 8.3 of the Ducks’ 105 points). Perhaps it’s no coincidence that Anaheim is only 2-3-1 when Getzlaf is not in the lineup this year.

    Want something a little bit more tangible? Getzlaf has scored .95 points-per-game for his entire career. Considering Anaheim has managed only one goal in three of the four contests he’s missed, I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to assume the captain could have provided a spark in at least one of those games.

    Meanwhile, the Predators have had an even poorer start to the season with fewer excuses than the Ducks. C Nick Bonino and D Ryan Ellis are both on injured reserve, but I don’t think that’s the main source of Nashville’s problems.

    Instead, I point to an anemic offense that has only managed 2.33 goals-per-game on 29 shots-per-game, both rates that are third-worst in the NHL.

    Scoring was all W Viktor Arvidsson and F Ryan Johansen could do last season, as both registered an impressive 61 points to lead Nashville’s attack (Arvidsson won the goals-scored tiebreaker with his 31-30-61 totals). This year, they’ve combined for only 11 points – a total C Steven Stamkos and his 24 points are laughing at from atop the Art Ross Trophy leader board.

    Last season, shooting the puck like it was going out of style was a patented trademark of this Predators club, as they fired 31.2 shots-per-game to rank sixth in the statistic. Considering Arvidsson leads the team in shots (he’s fired 43 in 12 games played), I’d bank on his .07 shooting percentage back towards last season’s 12.6 percent sooner than later.

    Perhaps it’s no surprise that F Filip Forsberg, who has fired 32 shots this season to rank third on the team, is leading the squad with his 8-5-13 totals (yes, he’s rocking a wildly impressive .25 shooting percentage). I expect that if more Predators follow his lead – followed by linemates converging on the crease like a basketball team grabbing at a rebound – and fire the puck more often, Nashville should start seeing improvements.

    Neither of these clubs are bad teams, they’re just not playing well right now. With the Predators riding a two-game losing skid right now and the Ducks being at home, I like Anaheim to pull this game out and earn two points.

    In yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day, the Washington Capitals held on to beat the New York Islanders 4-3 at Capital One Arena.

    With both clubs scoring at least one goal each period, Washington won this game in the first period, in one school of thought, by tickling the twine twice. The Caps were the first to get on the board courtesy of D Taylor Chorney‘s (F Chandler Stephenson and First Star of the Game C Lars Eller) first goal of the season, struck 5:55 into the contest. The Islanders’ Sandwich Line answered the goal 7:06 later when C John Tavares (Second Star F Anders Lee and F Josh Bailey) buried a power play wrist shot. The final goal of the period belonged to Eller (Stephenson and D Madison Bowey), who scored a slap shot with 3:41 remaining before the first intermission to set the score at 2-1.

    With another power play tally – this time by Lee (Bailey and C Mathew Barzal) – with 3:42 remaining in the second period, New York once again leveled the game, but this tie lasted even less time than the first as RW Alex Chiasson (Third Star D John Carlson and F Jay Beagle) buried a slapper only 12 seconds later to reclaim a 3-2 advantage for Washington.

    Another new period, another opportunity for the Islanders to level the game. With his second goal of the night, Lee (D Thomas Hickey and Tavares) forced another tie seven minutes into the third period.

    The game remained at three-all until only 3:21 remained in regulation. That’s when Eller (RW Tom Wilson and Carlson) scored his game-winning snap shot. Thanks to a quick leading pass into the neutral zone from Carlson to set up a breakaway opportunity for the Capitals, Eller had a clear shot from the top of the right face-off circle on G Jaroslav Halak. With that opportunity, he fired a snapper glove-side to beat the netminder to the near post.

    Though the Sandwich Line took two more shifts to try to level the game in the remaining time, they could not beat G Braden Holtby to force overtime.

    If the NHL gave out four stars, this game’s would absolutely be Holtby. Though he did give up three goals, he saved 35-of-38 shots faced (.921 save percentage) to earn the victory. That left the loss to Halak, who saved 15-of-19 (.789).

    The Capitals’ home victory snapped a two-game winning streak by visiting teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series, giving hosts a 17-10-4 record that is eight points better than the visitors’.

  • Merkle’s Weekly Bumblings: Week 3

    Player of the Week: Jakub Voracek

    Stealthy good. Not only an apt description of the big Flyers winger’s week (and season), but really of his entire career. Voracek has been one of the best ‘under-the-radar’ players in the league for some time, and this week he was really flying (pun somewhat intended). On a team that finished the week 1-2-0, Voracek was a major bright spot, tallying 2 points in every game. The Kladno, CZE native notched an assist on both Flyers goals in a 6-2 thumping against Anaheim, then tallied 1 & 1 in each of their next two contests (a 5-4 loss to Ottawa and 4-2 victory over Toronto). Oddly, not a single one of his 6 points in those 3 games came on the power play, an area where Voracek usually excels.

    Side note: Though Voracek is currently 3rd in points in the entire league (trailing only Tampa’s dynamic duo of Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov), those goals in back to back games were just his 1st and 2nd tallies of the year. He’s 2nd in the league in assists with 14.

    Team of the Week: Los Angeles Kings

    One of the league’s resident surprises, LA has surged to the top of the standings with a 9-1-1 record, and though they suffered their first regulation loss this week, it wasn’t enough to prevent them earning this recognition.

    With 8 players having recorded at least 5 points so far in the young season, and a goaltending duo both boasting sub-2.00 GAAs and >.930 save percentages, the resurgent Kings are getting contributions from seemingly everyone. Dustin Brown has burst back to life after multiple subpar seasons, seemingly flourishing in the system of new coach John Stevens. Anze Kopitar continues to make an argument for being possibly the most undervalued center in the league, and youngster Adrian Kempe has been sublime.

    Only a 3-2 loss to Toronto managed to blemish an otherwise-flawless week, as the Kings toppled Ottawa 3-2, Montreal 4-0, and Boston 2-1. A long summer and a fresh face behind the bench may have been just what the doctor ordered for the battle-weary club, and other clubs may need to start worrying about how to deal with a Cup-hungry LA franchise once again.

    Game of the Week: Dallas Stars 4 @ Edmonton Oilers 5, Thursday October 26th

    I admittedly have an affinity to games decided in extra frames when it comes to this award, but the Stars and Oilers simply put on a barn-burner too good to ignore.

    One of those matchups that just looks like it’s going to be fun on paper (two high-octane offenses backed up by less-than-stellar defenses), this tilt certainly delivered. 9 goals (3 on the power play), 67 shots, 56 hits, and even a fight (okay, more of a facial reconstruction on Antoine Roussel by Eric Gryba), this one had plenty of everything.

    The opening period started with a bit of a goaltending duel, with Ben Bishop and Cam Talbot both making a handful of quality stops in the opening half of the frame. But as a penalty to Ryan Strome was expiring just past the 11 minute mark, Leon Draisaitl collected a loose puck and fought through a check along the boards to push the puck ahead to the newly-freed Strome, who flicked a no-look backhand from the boards into the middle of the ice, feeding a streaking Connor McDavid in full stride, who proceeded to shelf the puck over the blocker side of Bishop to give the hometown Oilers the 1-0 lead. A see-saw contest would develop from there, as just over 1 minute later opposing captain Jamie Benn would bury a sweet feed from Alex Radulov to knot things up. Patrick Maroon would see a centering attempt turn into a goal after bouncing off the skate of Dallas defender Marc Methot and into the net with just 25 seconds to play in the opening frame, sending the Oil to the locker room with a 2-1 lead.

    Radulov and Benn would both tally power-play goals in the 2nd, with a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins goal splitting the two and sending the game into the 3rd period tied at 3. To break the streak of trading goals, Esa Lindell would bury Dallas’ 3rd PP tally after receiving a sweet cross-ice slap-pass from Jason Spezza just over halfway through the 3rd, giving the Stars their first lead of the night. Unfortunately for the Dallas faithful it would last just shy of 2 minutes, as RNH would net his second of the night to draw even at 4. Then with less than 3 to play, defenseman Matt Benning would give Draisaitl his 3rd assist of the night by burying a one-timer from the point (with a bit of help from the skate of Alexander Radulov) and giving the Oilers the final lead of the game.

    News, Notes, & Nonsense:

    Seriously, Golden Knights, about this Twitter campaign to be the next winning goaltender for your franchise? Oscar Dansk is 3-0-0 after being handed the starting job when both Marc-Andre Fleury and Malcolm Subban went down with injuries, and boasts a ridiculous 1.34 GAA and .959 save percentage, along with a shutout.

    I’m starting to actually believe anyone wearing goalie equipment could win the Vezina with this team.

     

    Speaking of roster vacancies in Vegas, Vadim Shipachyov earned himself a suspension by going all ‘Russian’ on the franchise after being sent down to the AHL. He has supposedly gone AWOL from the Chicago Wolves, and his future with the Golden Knights (and potentially the NHL altogether) is looking pretty well decided.

    Alex Ovechkin made headlines off the ice, as the Capitals superstar went out of his way to buy a sweater, coat, and hat for a shirtless homeless man he spotted while walking in Edmonton. Ovie downplayed his actions and attempted to avoid questions about it in interviews, stating that “It was nothing,” following up with “I think if you saw a guy almost naked out there with a cold temperature, I think every human can do something, a coat, a shirt, or whatever.” Autograph hounds throughout the league were seen disrobing and untidying their hair soon after word of Ovie’s actions reached the airwaves*.

    *- I assume

    Kevin Bieksa successfully utilized a ‘Superman Punch’ in a fight for the 2nd time in his career, with both instances occurring against the Philadelphia Flyers. Radko Gudas was on the receiving end of this most recent entry, while years ago it was Mike Richards. This does beg the question of why you would choose to fight Kevin Bieksa.

    The Habs and Rangers had a contest to see who was the least worst, and in fitting fashion, it was an ugly thing. 9 total goals on Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist, the former getting the…better?…of the latter, with both teams looking sloppy and discombobulated. I suppose either team can take solace in knowing they are better than Arizona, but I don’t know exactly how much solace can actually be taken from that knowledge.

    Can Arizona go an entire season without a victory? I think we should all get behind them in their efforts to set the least enviable record in hockey history. 10 down, 72 to go.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #77- Boo: A Very Merry Boone Jenner Halloween

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #77- Boo: A Very Merry Boone Jenner Halloween

    Nick, Connor and Cap’n address the news and notes from the past week of NHL action, discuss the demise of Antti Niemi, as well as take a gamble on the Vegas Golden Knights. The Los Angeles Kings are good (and lucky, according to Cap’n) and the Montreal Canadiens are bad (very bad). Also, Dwayne Roloson was 42 in 2011 (not 39).

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #74- Participation Trophies After One Game (Part II)

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #74- Participation Trophies After One Game (Part II)

    Jaromir Jagr signed with the Calgary Flames this week, the regular season started (though the Pittsburgh Penguins might not have been told yet that the games matter now) and former players tend to be GMs in the NHL, the Original Trio confirms. Also, we gave participation trophies without even watching the rest of the season for the second year in a row.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • Numbers Game: 2017-18 Standings Projections

    Yes, it’s October.

    Yes, it’s too early to make a final standings projection, but I’m going to do it anyway using a pseudo-algorithm called Heart and Grit Gut Feeling 2.0 (combined with the standard Microsoft Excel forecasting formula).

    Gut Feeling 2.0 is better than just using the eye test because it combines actual numbers plugged into Microsoft Excel with the complete partial bias of whatever I feel like is the right record, number of points and/or anything shown below for all 31 teams in the NHL.

    But seriously, to keep this loosely based in mathematics, I’ve included a range of points that three separate models are indicating (scroll to the bottom), as well as what Gut Feeling 2.0 is telling us.

    2017-2018 Projected Final Standings

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. y-Boston Bruins, 101 points
    2. x-Montreal Canadiens, 99 points
    3. x-Tampa Bay Lightning, 98 points
    4. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 95 points
    5. Ottawa Senators, 93 points
    6. Buffalo Sabres, 90 points
    7. Florida Panthers, 82 points
    8. Detroit Red Wings, 80 points

    Predicting the final outcome across the Eastern Conference this year is a lot like playing the lottery– whether you pick your numbers or just do quick picks, your odds of winning are still far, far less than getting struck by lightning twice.

    In the Atlantic Division, the Boston Bruins barely beat out the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning for the regular season division title with 101 points over Montreal’s 99 points and Tampa’s 98 points based on the Gut Feeling 2.0 model. Of course, seeding in the Stanley Cup Playoffs more often than not means nothing. Just like winning the President’s Trophy doesn’t mean much unless you win the Cup.

    Given the parity of the Atlantic Division teams, it wouldn’t be surprising to see any of the top-four teams in this model switch places or grab the division crown. Based on expected final standings point-ranges alone, Tampa looks to rebound with ease, while Montreal maintains status quo.

    It’s a bit of a surprise, but the Ottawa Senators sit just on the outside looking in, though logic says otherwise. For one team to improve in the division (say, Tampa for example, or the Buffalo Sabres with a healthy, full-season of Jack Eichel), another team must lose. Five points in the final standings is the only difference between 2017-2018 and 2016-2017 for the Sens and ultimately it costs them a postseason appearance.

    But if any major injuries occur to teams ahead of the Senators or Sabres, then expect either Ottawa or Buffalo to be ready to take their place.

    When it comes to 2018 Stanley Cup Playoff success, you might want to consider cashing in on the Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs to at least make it to the Second Round.

    Metropolitan Division

    1. z-Pittsburgh Penguins, 107 points
    2. x-Washington Capitals, 106 points
    3. x-New York Rangers, 103 points
    4. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 102 points
    5. New York Islanders, 92 points
    6. Carolina Hurricanes, 92 points
    7. Philadelphia Flyers, 91 points
    8. New Jersey Devils, 84 points

    The 2017-2018 final standings in the Metropolitan Division look similar to the 2016-2017 final standings in the Metropolitan Division. This is no accident. The top teams, Pittsburgh, Washington and the New York Rangers, remain dominant in their regular season play. Even the Columbus Blue Jackets, despite a six-point setback from their franchise best 50-win, 108-point season last year, remain a competitive team that should cross the 100-point plateau for two-seasons in a row under John Tortorella’s guise.

    Whereas the Washington Capitals do not clinch the President’s Trophy in the 2017-2018 season and instead falter by 12 points compared to last season, the Carolina Hurricanes show improvement in their money-puck roster mentality, but ultimately the giants of the Metropolitan Divsion (the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins, to be specific) prove too much for them to handle this season, though a 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs run seems imminent.

    Somehow the New York Islanders and Philadelphia Flyers remain stagnant this season, but the New Jersey Devils make the largest leap in points (from 70 points in ’16-’17 to 84 points in ’17-’18) as the rest of the division evens out.

    Look for Pittsburgh to advance to the Second Round and yet another entertaining Rangers-Capitals matchup in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. y-Chicago Blackhawks, 102 points
    2. x-St. Louis Blues, 101 points
    3. x-Nashville Predators, 97 points
    4. x-Dallas Stars, 96 points
    5. x-Minnesota Wild, 95 points
    6. Winnipeg Jets, 87 points
    7. Colorado Avalanche, 82 points

    Look, the Dallas Stars have tremendous talent on their expected first line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov, but even with Ben Bishop as their starting goaltender the Stars aren’t the best team in the Central Division.

    Instead, the annual “how do they keep doing this all the time? oh, right, they have Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford still” Chicago Blackhawks will just come out on top of the St. Louis Blues who look to improve from last season with a reinforced offense (hello, Brayden Schenn) and more experience on the blue line.

    The Nashville Predators, in all their glory with four incredibly deep forward lines, the best defense (on paper) and an elite starting goalie in Pekka Rinne, surprisingly fall short of winning the division coming off of their 2017 Stanley Cup Final run. Nashville will be in better playoff position heading into the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, given they won’t be the last team to clinch in the Western Conference, and they should be destined for another Western Conference Finals run, at least.

    The Minnesota Wild are the winners of the consolation “hey the other division didn’t have four-quality playoff teams” prize and will clinch the second Western Conference wild card spot with 95 points in 2017-18– one season removed from a 49-25-8 record and 106 point, 2nd place finish in the Central Division.

    Finally, the Colorado Avalanche couldn’t possibly have a season worse than they did last season, though they’re still poised to finish behind the Winnipeg Jets for last place in the division.

    Pacific Division

    1. p-Edmonton Oilers, 112 points
    2. x-Anaheim Ducks, 109 points
    3. x-San Jose Sharks, 99 points
    4. Los Angeles Kings, 92 points
    5. Calgary Flames, 85 points
    6. Vancouver Canucks, 83 points
    7. Arizona Coyotes, 78 points
    8. Vegas Golden Knights, 72 points

    Gut Feeling 2.0 never lies and the numbers don’t lie either. The Edmonton Oilers will be the top team in the Pacific Division when all is said and done this season. Better yet, the Oilers will be this season’s President’s Trophy winners– something that hasn’t happened since the days of some guy wearing a jersey with the number “99” on the back of it skated around the ice.

    Other than Edmonton overtaking the Anaheim Ducks for first overall, there are virtually no changes in the Pacific Division standings. San Jose will knock at the door of a 100-point season for the third season in a row, only to fall a point short (for the second season in a row).

    While Los Angeles Kings fans may be disappointed this season, if anything, missing the playoffs for one more season should give them enough time to develop and recover from their offseason roster moves while GM Rob Blake figures out the reins and plans the path back to Stanley Cup glory.

    Things are coming together for the Arizona Coyotes. They won’t be a bad team; they’re just a victim of circumstance. Unfortunately, that circumstance dictates that it’s going to take one more season for the chemistry to work out as general manager, John Chayka, addresses the growing depth on offense (both in prospect development and with the addition of Derek Stepan this offseason), while building a stable core of defensemen and capable young goalies in Antti Raanta and Louis Domingue.

    Meanwhile the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames go through their own growing pains for another season.

    Luckily for the Vegas Golden Knights, there’s no pressure to play better than last season, mostly because this is their inaugural season, so it can’t be worse than before!

    Look for Edmonton to make noise in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, going as deep as the Western Conference Finals– at least. Likewise, the Sharks seem ready for a better fight in the postseason than last season.

    Plausible ranges in points based on three separate models (math done in Microsoft Excel alone– no Gut Feeling 2.0 added) for the 2017-2018 season:

    Atlantic Division

    Boston Bruins (94-101), Buffalo Sabres (67-84), Detroit Red Wings (86-101), Florida Panthers (84-92), Montreal Canadiens (93-99), Ottawa Senators (91-92), Tampa Bay Lightning (89-98), Toronto Maple Leafs (80-90)

    Metropolitan Division

    Carolina Hurricanes (81-87), Columbus Blue Jackets (84-92), New Jersey Devils (77-92), New York Islanders (84-97), New York Rangers (98-103), Philadelphia Flyers (90-92), Pittsburgh Penguins (105-108), Washington Capitals (102-119)

    Central Division

    Chicago Blackhawks (100-107), Colorado Avalanche (65-84), Dallas Stars (92-94), Minnesota Wild (93-97), Nashville Predators (94-97), St. Louis Blues (97-106), Winnipeg Jets (83-87)

    Pacific Division

    Anaheim Ducks (101-109), Arizona Coyotes (74-83), Calgary Flames (85-90), Edmonton Oilers (74-87), Los Angeles Kings (90-96), San Jose Sharks (99-104), Vancouver Canucks (72-95), Vegas Golden Knights (69-75)

  • Anaheim Ducks 2017-2018 Season Preview

    Anaheim Ducks

    46-23-13, 105 points (’16-’17), 1st in the Pacific Division

    Eliminated in the Western Finals by Nashville

    Key additions: Francois Beauchemin, Ryan Miller

    Key subtractions: Jonathan Bernier, Emerson Etem, Shea Theodore

    Offseason Analysis: The Anaheim Ducks made the 2017 Western Conference Finals before falling to the Nashville Predators in seven games. The Ducks were the bullies of these playoffs, as they put “beating” a team to multiple meanings. They threw a lot of hits (31 per-game, to be exact – the third-most in the Western Conference playoffs) and actually injured a lot of players during the postseason. Now, no one likes to see injuries, especially as a result of dirty hockey, but that wasn’t the case for Anaheim as their hits were clean, impactful on the game and enjoyable to watch.

    For me, the Western Conference has always played a finesse game compared to the East’s physical, rough-and-tough action, so it was nice to see Anaheim step up and bring the opportune physicality to the West. And the best part? It worked in their favor and almost earned them a berth into the Stanley Cup Finals.

    Heading into the offseason, the expansion loomed over a Ducks roster loaded with young NHL defensemen. If you were to ask any analyst, they would’ve told you they were looking for a trade. But, they never found that trade partner and ended up losing young defenseman Shea Theodore to Vegas. This is not the worst case scenario as Theodore was kind of a depth player, but not a regular in the lineup. I feel they got lucky as they could’ve lost Brandon Montour, a great puck moving defenseman who anyone in the league would be lucky to have on their team.

    The Ducks’ big offseason moves were adding Francois Beachemin and veteran goalie Ryan Miller. I like both of these moves. I have already brought up the young defense core in Anaheim, so adding a veteran defenseman in Beachemin, who managed nearly two blocks-per-game last season, will add experience and even more grit to this defensive core.

    The Ducks upgraded their backup goalie by adding Ryan Miller. Miller, who posted a .914 save percentage for a 2.8 GAA last season as Vancouver’s starter, can help as the Ducks continue to develop John Gibson as their number one goalie. Given he’s playing behind a superior defense now, Miller can also add a few more wins where last year’s backup Jonathan Bernier (.915 save percentage and 2.5 GAA) did not.

    Offseason Grade: C

    This offseason was pretty quiet: Anaheim didn’t make a big splash, instead electing to keep its core players and snag some small upgrades. The Ducks will be a postseason team again this year, to no one’s surprise. They will have more competition at the top of the division, but they should have home-ice advantage for at least the first round of the playoffs. Will they have the same luck this year in the playoffs? I don’t think so; I think they will struggle to get out of first round. The team could’ve made bigger moves to add more offensively, but as a whole they will still be a force in the Western Conference.