The Original Trio reunite for a special look at the Carolina Hurricanes, Buffalo Sabres, college coaches landing NHL jobs and Conference Finals takeaways. Also, we meant Andrei Svechnikov.
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William Karlsson had a goal, Jonathan Marchessault had an assist and Reilly Smith had a goal and an assist en route to the Vegas Golden Knights 3-2 victory over the Winnipeg Jets in Game 4 of the 2018 Western Conference Final. The Golden Knights first liners— along with another strong performance from their goaltender— helped cement a 3-1 series lead.
Vegas is one win away from advancing to the Stanley Cup Final almost a year since their roster was formed via the 2017 Expansion Draft.
Marc-Andre Fleury made 35 saves on 37 shots against for a .946 save percentage in the win for the home team at T-Mobile Arena Friday night, while Winnipeg netminder, Connor Hellebuyck, stopped 26 out of 29 shots faced for an .897 SV% in 58:29 time on ice in the loss.
Penalties are all the more costly in the postseason and the Jets got an early reminder of why that is in the first period when Tyler Myers was called for interference less than two minutes into the action.
William Karlsson (6) buried a shot from one knee off the post and in on the power play and the Golden Knights led, 1-0, 2:25 into the first period. Jonathan Marchessault (10) and Reilly Smith (14) notched the assists on the goal.
Marchessault tied the NHL record for most points by a player in his team’s first playoff appearance (18 points) with his assist on Karlsson’s goal. Igor Larionov was the last player to record 18 points in his team’s first postseason with the San Jose Sharks in 1994, while Jude Drouin was the first to establish the record of 18 points by a player in his team’s first postseason as a member of the New York Islanders in 1975.
A little past the halfway mark of the first period, Mark Scheifele slashed Brayden McNabb and was subsequently sent to the penalty box to serve for a minor infraction. Vegas did not convert on the ensuing player advantage.
After one period, the Golden Knights led, 1-0, on the scoreboard and trailed, 10-9, in shots on goal. Both teams had nine blocked shots and four giveaways aside, while the Jets led in hits (17-15). Vegas led in takeaways (3-2), faceoff win percentage (65-35) and was 1/2 on the power play after 20 minutes of play, while Winnipeg had yet to see any time on the special teams advantage.
Karlsson slashed Jets captain, Blake Wheeler, and was sent to the sin bin early into the second period— less than three minutes into the second frame— but Winnipeg couldn’t will the puck past Fleury on the power play.
Then Tomas Nosek tripped Jacob Trouba at 8:28 of the second period and the Jets went back on the power play.
This time, things were different, as Wheeler had set up Patrik Laine with one of the best chances of the night, only to be denied by Fleury after Laine couldn’t receive the pass cleanly, settle the puck and release one of his patented quick shots in time. No matter, Winnipeg would get another chance.
On the ensuing faceoff in the attacking zone, the Jets won the puck and worked it around the offensive zone before Dustin Byfuglien fed Laine in his comfort zone— the faceoff dot just to the right of Vegas’s netminder.
Laine (5) ripped a shot past Fleury and Winnipeg had a power play goal of their own, tying the game, 1-1, at 9:29 of the second period. Byfuglien (11) and Wheeler (18) had the assists on the goal.
Just like in Game 3, however, the Golden Knights responded on the scoreboard less than a minute later as Nosek found redemption for serving time in the sin bin.
Nosek (1) poked the puck through Hellebuyck after Pierre-Edouard Bellemare nearly scored on a wraparound 10:12 into the second period, giving Vegas a 2-1 lead.
Bellemare (1) and Luca Sbisa (1) were credited with the assists on the Golden Knights goal 43 seconds after Winnipeg tied the game.
Late in the period, Sbisa tripped Nikolaj Ehlers and Vegas went on to kill off the minor penalty without any trouble from the visiting team’s power play.
Through 40 minutes of play, the Golden Knights led, 2-1, on the scoreboard and trailed, 25-22, in shots on goal. Vegas also led in blocked shots (16-15) and takeaways (13-6), while Winnipeg led in hits (32-28) and giveaways (8-6). Faceoff win percentage was even (50-50) after two periods and the Jets were 1/3 on the power play, while Vegas was 1/2 on the skater advantage heading into the second intermission.
A mere 28 seconds into the third period, McNabb was guilty of cross checking Scheifele and was sent to the box. Winnipeg came out of the gates surging and being shorthanded did not help Vegas’s cause, though the Golden Knights were able to kill off the penalty, thanks to Fleury’s stellar goaltending.
But it was Tyler Myers (4) finding the back of the twine in the vulnerable minutes after Winnipeg’s power play, having shot the puck through Fleury’s five-hole and wedging it underneath the net camera.
Jack Roslovic (3) had the only assist on the game-tying goal at 5:34 of the third period. This time the Golden Knights did not immediately strike back and the game remained tied, 2-2, for a little over seven minutes.
A Jets turnover led to a loose puck winding up on Smith’s stick. The Vegas forward charged into the attacking zone and sniped a snap shot past Hellebuyck’s short side going bar down to give the Golden Knights their third lead of the night, 3-2.
Smith’s (2) goal was just his second of the postseason and was unassisted at 13:02.
Time ticked down. Tension grew. Tempers didn’t flare as much as they had in previous games in the series, which didn’t lead to any retaliation penalties that could’ve jeopardized everything for either club.
With 90 seconds remaining in regulation, Hellebuyck vacated the goal for an extra attacker.
Paul Maurice called a timeout at a stoppage in play with 1:13 remaining in regulation to rally his Jets roster, but Gerard Gallant’s Golden Knights matched the intensity— clearing the puck, battling along the boards and keeping the vulcanized rubber biscuit away from their opponent.
Vegas won the final faceoff of the game with 6.8 seconds remaining in their own zone. Winnipeg would not get a last second shot away as Marchessault guided the puck through the neutral zone as the final horn sounded.
The Golden Knights won Game 4, 3-2, and are now one win away from advancing to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final— in their inaugural season.
After 60 minutes of play, Winnipeg led in shots on goal (37-29) and giveaways (16-9), but Vegas led in blocked shots (25-18), hits (45-43) and more importantly in the final results column. The Jets went 1/4 and the Golden Knights were 1/2 on the power play Friday night.
Game 5 is Sunday afternoon at Bell MTS Place in downtown Winnipeg, Manitoba. Puck drop is scheduled for a little after 3:00 p.m. ET and viewers in the United States have the chance to witness history on NBC. Fans in Canada, meanwhile (assuming the entire country’s rooting for the last Canadian team in the postseason) can cheer for the Jets on CBC, Sportsnet or TVAS.
Nick and Connor roadmap the offseason for Pittsburgh and Boston, figure out why Washington has been so good (and Tampa), pick a winner in tonight’s Game 7 (WPG @ NSH) and explain how Vegas is going to win the Cup in their inaugural season. Also discussed, Jim Montgomery, Rod Brind’Amour, Don Waddell, the Charlotte Checkers (so Carolina as a whole) and Mark Hamill.
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Washington Capitals forward, Evgeny Kuznetsov, had a tremendous chance to give Washington a two-goal lead in the second period, but couldn’t settle the puck as Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender, Matt Murray was down, leaving a mostly open net exposed.
Diehard D.C. sports fans in living rooms across Maryland and Virginia shrugged. They had seen their teams do this before, with all four major North American D.C. sports franchises having blown opportunities to advance to the conference finals in their respective sport since 1998.
But tonight would prove to be different. Kuznetsov would get his shot (literally) at redemption.
At 5:27 of overtime, Kuznetsov scored the game-winning goal— ending Washington, D.C.’s 20-year Eastern Conference Finals appearance drought— as the Capitals defeated the Penguins 2-1 on the road in Game 6.
Braden Holtby made 21 saves on 22 shots against for a .955 save percentage in 65:27 time on ice in the win for Washington, while Murray stopped 28 shots out of 30 shots faced for a .933 SV% in 65:27 TOI in the loss.
Both teams got going in the first period— trading scoring chance for scoring chance— but neither team was able to score in the opening 20 minutes of Game 6 Monday night.
Instead, the only event sheet worthy action in the first period were a couple of minor penalties; one to Pittsburgh’s Olli Maatta for high-sticking at 4:11 and the other to Washington’s Michal Kempny for tripping at 11:25.
After one period of play, the Capitals led in shots on goal (7-6) and hits (16-9), while the Penguins led in blocked shots (7-5), takeaways (3-2), giveaways (8-2) and faceoff win percentage (63-38). The score remained tied, 0-0, through 20 minutes of play and both teams were 0/1 on their respective power play opportunities.
Alex Chiasson (1) notched his first goal of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs— and a timely one at that— as the Capitals took the game’s first lead of the night, 1-0, just over two minutes into the second period. Nathan Walker (1) and Jay Beagle (3) had the assists on Chiasson’s goal, making Walker the fifth Washington rookie to amass a point in this postseason, as well as the first Australian born NHL player to record a point in a Stanley Cup Playoff game.
Kuzenetsov couldn’t bury the puck on a largely open net shortly thereafter.
Sidney Crosby won an offensive zone faceoff midway through the second period and worked the puck back to Brian Dumoulin.
The Penguins defender sent it along to his partner on the blueline, Kris Letang (3) who threw a shot towards the net, where, after deflecting off of a Capitals skater’s stick, the puck went past Holtby and hit the twine, tying the game, 1-1, as the home crowd at PPG Paints Arena erupted.
Dumoulin (6) and Crosby (12) were credited with the primary and secondary assists, respectively, on Letang’s game-tying goal at 11:52 of the second period.
Pittsburgh surged.
They fired chance after chance at Holtby, only to end up providing the Washington netminder with a highlight reel save with about seven seconds left in the period.
Through 40 minutes of play, the Penguins and Capitals were tied, 1-1. Shots on goal were even too, 15-15. Pittsburgh led in blocked shots (15-11), takeaways (5-3) and giveaways (12-2), while Washington led in hits (29-21). The Pens continued to dominate the faceoff dot, with a 62-38 faceoff win percentage advantage. Neither team recorded a penalty in the second period, so both were still 0/1 on the skater advantage.
The Caps came out in the third period swinging. Then the Penguins responded. Neither team put the puck past their opponent’s goaltender, however.
Holtby made a desperation save with under three minutes to go in regulation and Murray made a desperation save with under one minute remaining in regulation to match Holtby’s effort.
At the end of 60 minutes, the score remained, 1-1, with the Capitals outshooting the Penguins, 24-20. Washington also led in hits (35-29), while Pittsburgh had an advantage in blocked shots (19-14), takeaways (9-3), giveaways (15-4) and faceoff win percentage (65-35).
There were no penalties assessed in the third period, so both teams remained 0/1 on the power play.
Entering overtime, the Capitals held an experience advantage in extra frames this postseason as Washington was taking part in their fifth overtime game of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs while Pittsburgh was seeing their first game past 60 minutes.
Penguins forward, Tom Kuhnhackl, rang the far left post early into the sudden death action shortly after the Capitals generated a couple quality scoring chances on Murray.
T.J. Oshie connected with John Carlson and the Washington defender almost ended it, but soon enough the end would come as the Capitals capitalized on a similar breakout play.
Alex Ovechkin sent Kuznetsov into the zone on a lead pass that turned into a breakaway as Penguins defender, Kris Letang, was caught out of position.
Kuznetsov (7) buried the puck past Murray and Washington propelled themselves over their biggest speed bump in the postseason in the Ovechkin era— the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Ovechkin (7) and Dmitry Orlov (5) notched the assists in poetic fashion, as Ovechkin is often subject to criticism for not doing enough to put his team over the edge. Monday night, his critics were rightfully silenced.
The Capitals won, 2-1, and led in shots on goal, 30-22. Pittsburgh finished the night leading in blocked shots (21-14), giveaways (15-4) and faceoff win percentage (62-38), while Washington finished the night with more hits (36-33). Both teams were 0/1 on the power play with no penalties called after the first period.
For the third time in franchise history (1990 vs. BOS, 1998 vs. BUF, 2018), Washington is in the Eastern Conference Finals. They will square off with the Tampa Bay Lightning for the chance to play in the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.
In a first, everyone (except for Jordan) appears on the Down the Frozen River Podcast to predict how the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will go before the 2017-18 NHL regular season even ends, technically speaking. The 100th episode anniversary is informally observed.
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After NHLers were not allowed to participate in the 2018 Winter Games and due to the success of last week’s episode, Nick and Connor decided to create rosters with NHL players anyway for Team Canada. Also discussed, Alexandre Burrows, Max Domi and the New York Rangers plan for the future.
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1. Vegas Golden Knights– 33-12-4 (70 points, 49 GP)
There isn’t really that much the Vegas Golden Knights need to do to improve down the stretch. Should they trade James Neal or Marc-Andre Fleury as some fans and media members alike wondered since the expansion draft last June? No. They shouldn’t.
These are the Golden Knights. They’re trying to win the Stanley Cup in their first season of existence. And they just might.
They’ve dismantled some of the league’s best teams on a night-to-night basis, while amassing a plus-38 goal differential through 49 games played– and oh yeah, they’re smashing inaugural season records by an expansion franchise. All of that has put them in position for making a stake as a leading horse in the Presidents’ Trophy race.
That said, if Vegas general manager, George McPhee, is presented with an offer he can’t refuse that would make his team better, by all means, he should pursue it. Addition without subtraction or whatever– they have roughly $8.100 million in salary cap space, they can afford it.
Potential assets to trade: F Cody Eakin, F David Perron
Potential assets to acquire: F Patrick Maroon (EDM), F Alex Galchenyuk (MTL), D Nick Holden (NYR), D Ryan McDonagh (NYR), F Mike Hoffman (OTT), D Ian Cole (PIT)
2. San Jose Sharks– 26-16-8 (60 points, 50 GP)
The San Jose Sharks sit in an uncomfortable position. Yes, they’re currently 2nd in the Pacific Division, but it’s a four-horse race for anywhere between two and four playoff spots in the Pacific Division.
No that’s not counting out the Edmonton Oilers (spoiler alert– they’ll be sellers), but let’s assume the Golden Knights lay claim to the regular season division title. Then it becomes a Battle of California and Calgary for two divisional spots and either one, two or no wild card positions in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Taking a look at the Central Division… yeah, odds aren’t great that they’ll be five teams from either the Pacific or Central clinching a playoff berth, considering the Dallas Stars (60 points), Sharks (60 points), Minnesota Wild (59 points), Kings (59 points), Ducks (59 points), Colorado Avalanche (58 points) and Flames (58 points) are all separated by a measly two-points.
There’s no room for error.
With only about $5.200 million in cap space currently and pending RFA forwards Tomas Hertl, 24, and Chris Tierney, 23, to re-sign along with pending RFA defenseman, Dylan DeMelo, 24, San Jose would be smart to lock up the future of their core while accepting that they’ll likely lose some guys via trade or free agency this offseason.
Joe Thornton, 38, is currently on IR and making $8.000 million on his soon to expire contract. Joel Ward, 37, has a $3.275 million cap hit on his deal that expires on July 1st.
Could this be a last hurrah?
Again, it all depends on how the Sharks approach everything moving forward– oh, by the way, backup goaltender, Aaron Dell, is a pending-UFA at season’s end too, but Troy Grosenick looks ready enough to settle into the backup role once Dell is either traded or probably makes a lot of money for the chance to be a starting goaltender elsewhere this July.
Potential assets to trade: F Mikkel Boedker, D Justin Braun, D Brenden Dillon, G Aaron Dell, D Paul Martin, F Joel Ward
Potential assets to acquire: Cap Relief, F David Desharnais (NYR), F Michael Grabner (NYR), D Ian Cole (PIT), F Klim Kostin (STL), F Jordan Kyrou (STL), F Thomas Vanek (VAN), F Nic Petan (WPG)
3. Los Angeles Kings– 27-18-5 (59 points, 50 GP)
The Los Angeles Kings are set. They don’t really need to add as long as elite-starting goaltender, Jonathan Quick, is healthy. General manager, Rob Blake, should take a page out of Vegas’s book and sit on his hands come February 26th, that way he won’t be tempted to make any phone calls he might regret later.
It’s not like the Kings should really consider dumping what’s left of 35-year-old forward, Marian Gaborik, but they very well could– just to get $4.875 million in salary cap off of their hands. Gaborik’s 7-7–14 totals in 27 games played are pretty telling (albeit due to injury and being scratched other nights).
F Nick Shore, D Kevin Gravel and G Darcy Kuemper stand out as the only “big” names Los Angeles will have to re-sign this offseason with veteran forward, Torrey Mitchell, either working out as a long-term, year-to-year, rental or a short-term, Cup focused, investment.
Similar to San Jose, however, the Kings don’t have a lot of cap space as things stand. Los Angeles has about $3.600 million in wiggle room and really doesn’t have any holes that need to be filled.
Los Angeles should sit this trade deadline out and instead work on a plan for the 2018 NHL Entry Draft in June where they’ll have to make some moves (unless the cap rises, which it’s expected to). Then again, Drew Doughty ($7.000 million cap hit) will need a new contract in 2019…
Potential assets to trade: F Marian Gaborik
Potential assets to acquire: draft picks, maybe a prospect or two
4. Anaheim Ducks– 25-17-9 (59 points, 51 GP)
Every now and then there are teams that seemingly destroy their opponents in more ways than one while quietly existing and carrying their own weight. Injuries amounted early, but these days the Anaheim Ducks are the ones handing out the bruises– and winning… significantly.
The Ducks are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games, which won’t mean anything by February 26th (unless they go on a significant winning/losing streak).
Anaheim might creep up in the standings, but what will set them apart from the rest of the Western Conference?
This is where the Ducks can shine at the trade deadline if they just add one more piece to the puzzle. It doesn’t have to be a permanent piece, but one that’ll hold them over in the event of injuries.
Let’s face it, regardless of the physical brand of hockey Anaheim plays, there will be an injury or two down the stretch that could impact their chances of postseason success.
The Sami Vatanen-for-Adam Henrique trade with the New Jersey Devils has paid off in much needed scoring throughout their lineup, but the Ducks could get more if they wanted to.
A return of Patrick Maroon to The Pond or a rental like Thomas Vanek or Michael Grabner just might put Anaheim on the fast track to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final. Filling out their bottom-six depth and scoring prowess, while continuing to center their game around size and skill is exactly what they could add at the end of the month.
With only about $3.100 million in cap space available, the right move might be hard to make.
Potential assets to trade: G Reto Berra, D Steve Oleksy, draft picks, prospects
Potential assets to acquire: D Cody Franson (CHI), D Mike Green (DET), F Patrick Maroon (EDM), F David Desharnais (NYR), F Michael Grabner (NYR), D Nick Holden (NYR), D Erik Gudbranson (VAN), F Thomas Vanek (VAN)
5. Calgary Flames– 25-17-8 (58 points, 50 GP)
When the Calgary Flames are hot, they’re red hot. When the Flames are cold they’re cooler than being cool (shouts OutKast).
Of all the teams in the Pacific Division, Calgary is the most Jekyll and Hyde of the two Alberta teams. Goaltender, Mike Smith, has saved the season (literally) multiple times on nights where Johnny Gaudreau and the Flames’s offense hasn’t gotten going.
Conversely, Gaudreau has propelled his team on nights when Smith has struggled. Some nights the Flames are on their “A” game. Some nights their porous defense shows. A lot.
Calgary is too young to give up on. Guys like Troy Brouwer, Matt Stajan and Kris Versteeg provide a veteran presence both on the ice and in the locker room, but are harder to move given their modified no-trade clauses. Not that anyone’s in a rush to move them. Just being mindful of July 1st and the plethora of youth that could steal some roster spots next year, provided the Flames don’t do anything crazy in free agency.
The Flames have to get better if they want to play longer. Whether or not they decide to take action now or let things develop on their own, well, hasn’t it been long enough?
If they want to make a deep playoff run they have to manage their cap situation a lot better (and fix their defense with, say, six new defensemen?). With a little more than $2.200 million to play with in cap space come deadline day, Calgary isn’t doing this whole “let’s be buyers on February 26th” thing right.
Potential assets to trade: F Mikael Backlund, D Matt Bartkowski, F Michael Frolik, D Travis Hamonic, D Michael Stone
Potential assets to acquire: F Sam Reinhart (BUF), D Nick Holden (NYR), D Ian Cole (PIT)
6. Edmonton Oilers– 22-24-3 (47 points, 49 GP)
If you had Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, where would you expect to be in the standings?
It’s a trick question, because no matter how many Art Ross Trophies those two players combined win in their careers, you still need to fill out the rest of the roster so you can be salary cap compliant and thus able to compete in the first place.
Fortunately for the Edmonton Oilers, Peter Chiarelli is at the reins.
Check that. It’s pretty dire.
The Oilers aren’t the worst team anymore, so at least they have that going for them, but once again we’re approaching yet another trade deadline where Edmonton has a lot of cargo to jettison into the void that is the rest of the league.
While McDavid and Draisaitl will eat up $21 million in salary starting next season, the Oilers have plenty of pending free agents to sort out– which also means they have a lot of rentals to sell at the deadline.
With the right moves, Chiarelli can redeem himself in Edmonton. All it requires is a swift retool. Too bad there’s a couple of no movement clauses on the blue line, because they’re eating $9.500 million in salary that the team will probably need to re-sign Rasmus Dahlin in a few years after they win the draft lottery.
Potential assets to trade: F Mike Cammalleri, D Brandon Davidson, F Mark Letestu, F Patrick Maroon
Potential assets to acquire: F Zemgus Girgensons (BUF), F Sam Reinhart (BUF), F Luke Glendening (DET), F Alex Galchenyuk (MTL), F Andrew Shaw (MTL), D Nick Holden (NYR), F Derick Brassard (OTT), F Jean-Gabriel Pageau (OTT), F Klim Kostin (STL), F Jordan Kyrou (STL)
7. Vancouver Canucks– 20-24-6 (46 points, 50 GP)
Similar to the Edmonton Oilers, the Vancouver Canucks had high hopes for this season. Okay, not that high, but still.
Things haven’t exactly gone as planned, thanks in part to Bo Horvat‘s injury, yet the Canucks have one of this season’s most pleasant surprises in the league– the emergence of Brock Boeser.
Vancouver has about $1.000 million in cap space currently. For a team that’s massively under-performing with a minus-31 goal differential through 50 games played, that’s horrendous.
Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin are both pending-UFAs earning $7.000 million through the end of this season. Their playing days are safe in a Canucks uniform, given their no movement clauses and the fact that the traditional “honorary” $1.000 million (with a bunch of bonuses tied to performance) year-to-year contract extensions forthcoming– if they choose to play another year in the NHL.
There’s a lot of youth in Vancouver, so that’s promising.
Guys like Thomas Vanek and Erik Gudbranson have been the subject of those expected to be on the move from the Canucks organization and surely at least one of them will be out the door come February 26th.
As much as Sam Gagner has turned around his game, he may fall victim to the tight cap situation with pending RFAs Jake Virtanen, Markus Granlund and Sven Baertschi on the cusp of seeing pay raises. Then again, maybe Gagner’s future with the Canucks will be saved by whatever the Sedin’s decide to do (take less money).
Short of some adjustments on the blue line and letting their young forwards gain experience, Vancouver really doesn’t need that much. Full health and finding the right starting goaltender should be the main focus going into the deadline and beyond.
Potential assets to trade: D Alex Biega, F Sam Gagner, D Erik Gudbranson, G Jacob Markstrom, G Anders Nilsson, F Thomas Vanek
Potential assets to acquire: F Zemgus Girgensons (BUF), G Robin Lehner (BUF), F Sam Reinhart (BUF), G Petr Mrazek (DET), F Jean-Gabriel Pageau (OTT), G Aaron Dell (SJ), F Klim Kostin (STL), F Jordan Kyrou (STL)
8. Arizona Coyotes– 12-29-9 (33 points, 50 GP)
Just exactly how long will we go before recognizing that the Arizona Coyotes are in a state of denial?
The perpetual rebuild has hit its lowest point so far and general manager, John Chayka, has nothing to show for some of his seemingly brilliant acquisitions in the offseason (namely, Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta from the New York Rangers, as well as Niklas Hjalmarsson from the Chicago Blackhawks).
Look, neither of the trades the Coyotes made around the 2017 NHL Entry Draft were going to make them contenders for the Cup, but they should’ve at least made them move out of the basement and onto the first floor of the league.
Arizona will be selling once again and unless your last name is Hjalmarsson, Raanta or Stepan and you’re over the age of 24, there’s a good chance you could be packing a bag out of the desert (unless you get traded to Vegas, in which case, you’ll still be in the desert– only cooler because of all of the attractions around T-Mobile Arena, oh and the whole “Cup in one” mentality currently for the Golden Knights).
Potential assets to trade: F Brad Richardson, F Tobias Rieder, F Jordan Martinook, F Nick Cousins, D Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D Kevin Connauton
Potential assets to acquire: Draft picks, F Zemgus Girgensons (BUF), F Sam Reinhart (BUF), D Tyson Barrie (COL), G Petr Mrazek (DET), F Alex Galchenyuk (MTL), F Max Pacioretty (MTL), D Nick Holden (NYR), D Ryan McDonagh (NYR), F Mike Hoffman (OTT), F Jean-Gabriel Pageau (OTT), G Aaron Dell (SJ), F Klim Kostin (STL), F Jordan Kyrou (STL), F David Perron (VGK)
The Western Conference leading Vegas Golden Knights entered their bye week at exactly 41 games played.
Due to an unintentional– completely accidental– oversight on my behalf, I didn’t remember to look at their stats after 40 games played (like I normally would every 20 games throughout the season). But for the perfectionists in the world out there– it’s better to split things right down the middle.
Vegas is back in action for the second half of their inaugural season on Saturday after going 29-10-2 (60 points) in their first 41 games in franchise history.
Earlier in the week, I pointed out that the New Jersey Devils have been quite a pleasant surprise this season. Of course, I made sure to mention the Golden Knights as one of the other pleasant surprises.
It’s not that nobody expected this team to fail as much as all the other expansion teams in the 100-year history of the league.
Given the talent pool to choose from and the overall development of professional hockey players/the league itself since the 1990s (it’s a younger, faster, game where great players last well into their 30s and good players are buried in the AHL or playing overseas by the time they’re 30-35 years old), it really shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Golden Knights are at the very least, a competitive– young– team.
Even still, it’s been quite the euphoric ride.
A team that poached the Florida Panthers– and many others– at the 2017 Expansion Draft, laid the foundation in 50-plus point scorer, Jon Marchessault, let alone with three-time Stanley Cup champion goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury. Surely they would have some highlights in their first season.
Nobody could’ve imagined that same team would be seriously considering keeping Fleury or a guy like James Neal at the trade deadline in the midst of what could shape up to be a long playoff run in their first season, but alas, here we are.
It’s more than just “Real Deal” James Neal in Sin City. The Golden Knights are the real deal.
And their forecasted stats for the remaining half of the regular season show it. Though now is about the time where I make sure to mention one little standard disclaimer– my degree is in communication– not math– so any miscalculations or accolades that seem nearly impossible to ascertain are Microsoft Excel’s fault.
Vegas Golden Knights Projections Through 41 Games (41 Games Remaining)
Simply put, Erik Haula (26-24–50 expected totals), William Karlsson (32-23–55 expected totals) and Marchessault (30-38–68 expected totals) are blazing through the rest of the league and showing no signs of flaming out any time soon.
It certainly helps that Neal and David Perron are both expected to reach the 60-point plateau, with Reilly Smith not so far behind amassing 19-38–57 expected totals.
On defense, Deryk Engelland, Colin Miller, Nate Schmidt and Shea Theodore have been leading the charge from the blue line all season long. For Engelland, the adopted son of Las Vegas, a revitalized season defending the league’s newest team might just keep him playing in his backyard for longer than just this season.
Miller and Schmidt were expected to take on more pronounced top-4 roles with the expectation that at least one of them would develop into a surefire top-2 shutdown defenseman. Miller should max out around 40 points, while Schmidt should put up a cool 30-point season in his first year outside of the United States capital.
After being sent to the AHL early on in the season, Shea Theodore was only motivated to work harder.
It wasn’t that he was not desired by an NHL team as clearly Vegas saw value in his game at the Expansion Draft, claiming Theodore from the Anaheim Ducks. Now that the Golden Knights front office and coaches have righted their wrong, Theodore could very well put up 24 points on the season in what is– by all means– a breakout season for the defenseman entering his prime.
In the net, the Golden Knights have been spectacular. Not only has general manager, George McPhee, come away looking even more like the genius that he already is, but Vegas is stacked at depth in the crease.
Malcolm Subban‘s playing like a backup that’s capable of taking on a starting role. That’ll be something to keep an eye on, given Fleury’s aging out of his prime– though he has yet to show it. It’s not often that a team has the right pieces to play two goalies almost equally in minutes and be successful.
In 2011, the Boston Bruins rode the backs of Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask to the Stanley Cup Final. Interestingly enough, the Vancouver Canucks did the same with Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider.
Thomas played his last game as a Bruin in 2012. Luongo was traded by the Canucks in 2014– a year after Vancouver dumped Schneider in New Jersey.
Two tremendous goalies are better than one from a team record standpoint, but at some point general managers are either forced with a difficult decision due to the salary cap or fall into the fallacy that is the “there can only be one” mantra.
And Gerard Gallant might end up with some tough decisions down the stretch regarding who to start each night, reminiscent of Mike Sullivan‘s Fleury-Matt Murray swapping during en route to Pittsburgh’s 2016 and 2017 Stanley Cup championships.
Nonetheless, Oscar Dansk filled in flawlessly when Fleury and Subban were out of the lineup with injuries. Meanwhile, Maxime Lagace performed on another level shortly after Dansk’s introduction to the game when Dansk went down himself due to injury.
With enough depth in goal to try to get something good in return, the ball is in Vegas’s court as the trade deadline approaches. Though the Golden Knights don’t have to rush things. A little competition for every goaltending job isn’t always a bad thing.
Being in first place in the Western Conference isn’t good enough for the Golden Knights. They’ve got their sights set even higher, like on a 2018 Stanley Cup Final run, for instance.
Sin City is looking to shine like gold. Vegas wants the Cup.
Nick and Connor pick apart the Central Division, provide injury updates, preview the 2018 Winter Classic and discuss the 2018 IIHF World Junior Championship so far.
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It’s December 1st which means all 31 NHL teams have passed the quarter mark of the regular season. Some teams have played almost 30 games while others have barely passed the 20.5 games required for the “quarter of the way through the season” moniker.
In the Western Conference, the Edmonton Oilers are bad, the Colorado Avalanche are okay, the Vegas Golden Knights are good and there’s a very real chance that the Arizona Coyotes barely surpass Colorado’s 22-win 2016-2017 season benchmark of “worst team in the Salary Cap Era”.
Meanwhile in the Eastern Conference, the Tampa Bay Lightning are thundering their way back into dominance over the rest of the league, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the real deal, the Montreal Canadiens are turning a corner after stumbling out the gate and the New Jersey Devils are good– too good.
Oh and then there’s the fact that the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins are quietly in the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference.
So with everything in mind, let’s use Microsoft Excel to help us predict the rest of the season, shall we?
Unlike my standings projections before the first puck dropped on the season, I haven’t added any Gut Feeling 2.0 to these predictions. There’s going to be some surprises and there’s going to be some things that are way off, considering the fact that an equation cannot predict injuries, streaks or things of that nature. What might look insane now, will look different (hopefully) in another 20 games or so.
Don’t worry, I’ll be sure to do another round of this around the All-Star Game.
The moral of the story here is that if you’re off to a bad start, like Edmonton, and you’re running up against a tight salary cap moving forward, it’s never too early to start counting your quarters and figuring out what assets you’ll be able to lose by the trade deadline.
If you’re a good team, like New Jersey, then it’s the perfect time to assess how far you think you’ll go and determine who might be right the addition at or before the deadline that’ll push you further than expected and maybe all the way to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.
2017-2018 Projected Standings after Two Months
Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
To keep things short, the Lightning and the Maple Leafs are still the best picks coming out of the Atlantic Division if you have your eyes set on trying to predict which teams might have a deep playoff run in 2018.
The Boston Bruins have been battling injuries all season long and while they’ve kept the pace with their youth-infused lineup, they still have a lot of development to go before they can reach a conference finals run, let alone Stanley Cup Final run. Ottawa’s decline continues to be one of the biggest surprises in the weakest division in the Eastern Conference. Other than that, nothing else is really groundbreaking here.
Metropolitan Division
In the Metropolitan Division the Pittsburgh Penguins look to regain their top-notch form as they’ve had a difficult time adjusting to life after Marc-Andre Fleury (and have especially struggled with a decimated defense from the offseason).
The Columbus Blue Jackets are likely to climb in later projections, based on their current performance, but again, since this is only based off of a formula in Microsoft Excel… Columbus will be just fine. They should be an underdog or a dark horse for Stanley Cup contention this season. This division will continue to be the tightest battle all season long, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see New Jersey inside or outside of the picture come April.
Western Conference
Central Division
As exciting as the battle for the Metropolitan Division should continue to be this season, the Western Conference’s Central Division has plenty of counterpoints to offer for top-notch divisional battles and Stanley Cup contenders. This is the season for the St. Louis Blues (to at least make a run for the President’s Trophy).
Whether or not St. Louis can go further than their 2016 Western Conference Finals trip went and make it back to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 1970, only time can tell. Between the Blues, Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets, it’s safe to say one of your Stanley Cup finalists will be from the Central Division.
Pacific Division
In the biggest surprise this season, the Vegas Golden Knights are not only tracking for a postseason appearance– they’re on the rails to a Pacific Division winning season. Yes, the Los Angeles Kings are the only other hottest team in the Pacific, but there’s something to be said for the San Jose Sharks experience the last few seasons.
Just like the Central Division, Vegas, Los Angeles or San Jose would be safe bets for a deep playoff run. The Anaheim Ducks could make things interesting as they have always done, but there’s really nothing else that looks promising to make a surge in the standings and/or postseason. Sorry Oilers fans.
Need a reminder of what things looked like early in November? Here it is:
Yes, of course, most of these will be wrong, hence why they’re bold predictions. Anyway, my models are showing me this… pic.twitter.com/onFSguU6Zz
— Nick Lanciani (@lanci53) November 5, 2017
Down the Frozen River 
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