Bruins Forecast Coyotes Forecast Stats Forecasts

2016-2017 Projections- ARI and BOS

By: Nick Lanciani

Below are my projections for both the Boston Bruins and Arizona Coyotes as they were before either team played a game (I know the season started already, but I didn’t have enough time in a day to compile all of these exactly as I wanted to because I’m a perfectionist). So without further ado, here are some projected stats.

Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.

Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).

Also, I don’t mess with predicting anything for rookies until they’ve played a few NHL games, so if you’re looking for how well one of them will do for your team here, sorry. Unlike last season, I won’t be able to update everything after every 10 games, but I’ll try my best to keep things updated after every 20 games (or so). At the very least, I’ll be sure to update things halfway through the season (41 games) on this page and whenever I get around to it for individual player’s based on their performance on Twitter (as exhibited by my Brad Marchand and David Backes related tweets below from Thursday night).

Likewise, I might add more Corsi projections than just Corsi for%.

Arizona Coyotes Projections- Game 0 of 82

Coyotes forwards

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Coyotes goalies

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Corsi for% projections for Arizona roster skaters

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*indicates that the current projection is regarded as unreliable based on previous career performance (in other words, it’s an outlier)

Boston Bruins Projections- Game 0 of 82

Bruins forwards

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Bruins goalies

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Corsi for% projections for Boston roster skaters

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Coyotes Forecast Nick's Net Stats Forecasts

Chayka-ing things up

By: Nick Lanciani

Unknown-3Since the Arizona Coyotes follow us on Twitter (shouts to you, Coyotes social media department), I’m going to do my best to keep track of some projections for how their players will perform next season.

And since the season’s not even here yet and I’m not quite as organized as I would like to be to formally present these numbers to you, the reader, I’m just going to leave you with a look at how things might go next season for Arizona.

But that’s not all, I’m not just leaving you with one chart for now, but two charts! One is before John Chayka was hired as the Coyotes general manager and the other incorporates all of the moves Chayka’s made since becoming Arizona’s GM.

Just by giving Chayka’s roster a quick glance it is evident that the Coyotes will be much better this season. Continuous improvement among their youth will be evident as they develop in time, but a huge thing for Arizona next season will be the addition of Alex Goligoski on the blue line.

In fact, nearly all of the defensemen that Chayka picked up for the club will have a solid impact on keeping the score close and limiting the amount of work Mike Smith and Louis Domingue have to put in on a nightly basis.  Closing the gap on the scoring differential is essential to give your offense room to grow, if you’re building from the back-out.

Analytics aside, Chayka has made very tactical moves.

The Coyotes model is clear on building up their defense where necessary, while allowing their young forwards to develop. They aren’t rushing to add any young blue liners, but they did draft Jakob Chychrun, so it’s not like it’ll be too long before Arizona inserts a highly coveted, tactical, young defenseman. Besides, Anthony DeAngelo should be good enough for now, in terms of rotating some youth on the back end this year.

Needless to say, the Coyotes won’t be a number one team, but they’ll certainly be a competitive team that’ll be exciting to watch come February and March (and maybe deep into April too). And there’s a good chance a rookie or two could still surprise us all and crack the roster.

A note about my projections: For each stat, I amass the totals of every season in a player’s NHL career onto a spreadsheet in Excel and simply use the Forecast function, so some stats might not line up with one another in the projected outcome (i.e. shots and shooting percentage). Likewise, if I find something cooler than just using Excel, I’ll figure that out and make changes accordingly. For a better look at the charts, I advise that you zoom-in or click on each chart, thanks.

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Expected performances for the 2016-2017 season of every player on the Arizona Coyotes 2015-2016 roster (regardless of where they are now).

If last year’s team came back to play this year (above), it doesn’t appear they’d be much different than the current roster (below) heading into the 2016-2017 season, except for the fact that Chayka’s a genius on paper so far (contract wise, in relation to performance, that is).

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Expected performances for the 2016-2017 season of every player currently on the Arizona Coyotes roster (including Radim Vrbata, who signed with the team on Tuesday and made me have to adjust more than I had to at first).