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NHL Nick's Net Numbers Game

Slightly late, but better than never 2021-22 standings forecast

Every year on DTFR you may recall seeing division standings forecasts for the National Hockey League from month-to-month and, well, I didn’t forget about it this year, don’t worry.

When the Vegas Golden Knights joined the league in 2017-18, the initial forecast entering October was infused with an educated guess (*ahem*, gut feeling) for each and every team– but especially Vegas since they had never played before– in addition to the usual arithmetic utilized to compile the average of three different forecasts ranging from the last 10, five and three seasons.

Entering the 2021-22 National Hockey League calendar, with the inaugural season of Seattle Kraken hockey set to begin, I shifted my focus on a “gut feeling” projection for the Kraken to that of the standings projections that I’ve done for at least the last few seasons now.

In other words, the forecast you’re about to see uses the forecast function in your spreadsheet of choice (Microsoft Excel or Google Sheets), whereas the standings projections in the link above is based on an expected points totals model using last season’s offense and a whole bunch of other things I won’t bore you with.

As such, Seattle received a projected points total based on the loosely projected offense using a composite of what the Kraken could have had, if every player on their roster entering training camp had scored goals last season for Seattle instead of their respective teams.

But for this edition of standings predictions– using the forecast function– since the Kraken never played a game entering October 2021, they were given an 8th place standing in the Pacific Division with an asterisk– signifying that their results are incomplete until they hit the ice.

Now, of course, entering November, the Kraken have played some games, so the forecast reflects that (albeit limited in the variance of possible outcomes, since they don’t have quite the same backlog as the 31 other NHL franchises).

If you’re confused, let’s move on and talk about how things looked entering October for each division and whether or not things have changed that much entering November– keeping in mind that all 32 teams played anywhere from as few as seven games to as many as 10 games in October.

And remember, my degree is in communication, not statistics.


Entering October, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion, Tampa Bay Lightning were a safe bet to lead the Atlantic Division standings over the course of a return to the usual 82-game schedule.

The Boston Bruins, who made quite a few moves in the offseason, would do their usual thing under head coach, Bruce Cassidy, and display a strong effort, though how realistic is this expectation, you ask?

Probably not as spot on as you’d think.

Last season’s temporarily realigned divisions– featuring intra-divisional play only– helped teams like the Bruins beat teams like the Philadelphia Flyers almost every time they squared off.

This season, Boston will have to face a stronger than ever before– if not as good as they were in 1995-96– Florida Panthers roster, for example, which is more likely to be reflected in a later forecast after a couple of months are in the record books.

So that’s actually a perfect explanation for why the Toronto Maple Leafs and Panthers don’t look quite as dominant as they were last season in the forecast entering October.

The reduced schedule alone yielded similar point totals to regular-length seasons in the past, which downplays this year’s projected outcome, logically, right?

Keep that in mind for the Colorado Avalanche later, though there may be more to it than just the fact that the 2016-17 season is still accounted for in both the 10-year and five-year models, which drags down the average.

Anyway, the Montréal Canadiens aren’t a playoff team and the spread between the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres reveals each of those three teams is likely to be more competitive than in season’s past, but like Montréal likely on the outside looking in.

Entering November, the Bruins and Senators have played the fewest games in the division (seven games each), resulting in not that much change, while Florida gained seven points in the current forecast– moving themselves into a divisional playoff berth in the process.

Should the Panthers’ success be of concern to Leafs fans if Toronto isn’t in the top-3 in the Atlantic Division?

No.

The Lightning haven’t had as much spark as they usually do, which can be attributed to the price of winning back-to-back Cups in a span of, what, like, 10 months?

They’re tired, but not too tired, because Jon Cooper will ensure his team bounces back when the real season starts as the trade deadline approaches and the push for the playoffs begins.

Though the Sabres are quick out of the gate, reality should set in as the calendar flips to December and Buffalo will slip out of playoff contention and into being surprisingly somewhere in the middle.

That isn’t to say that Ottawa and Detroit have been that much worse than the Sabres to start the 2021-22 season, but, yeah, things are better than last season for Buffalo, at least.

If you’re going to put stock into anything, invest in the Panthers rising to 1st or 2nd place in the Atlantic by season’s end.

Taking a look at the Metropolitan Division entering the 2021-22 season, it seems like it’s more of the same for the last four or five seasons now.

Somehow the Washington Capitals or Pittsburgh Penguins win the division, while the New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes upset either team in the First Round. I don’t make the rules.

While there’s a lot of optimism for the Islanders to make a significant jump in the standings given their recent runs to the Eastern Conference Final, it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re like the Lightning and take a little dip in just about everything.

It’s not a reset, but a refresh with high expectations for a big 2022-23 season to finally get over the hump and reach their first Stanley Cup Final appearance since 1984.

Maybe by then Tampa will have succumbed to the salary cap era, so they won’t be in New York’s way in the postseason.

As for the other New York team, well, the Rangers are sure to frustrate more than just their own fans as they’ll agitate their opponents, sure, but won’t play much of a spoiler in their quest for whatever it is James Dolan has told General Manager, Chris Drury, to do this offseason.

At the very least, the fact that the Metropolitan Division is a close spread reveals what we already know– that it’s truly anyone’s guess as to who will make the playoffs this year.

The last decade has conditioned us to expect Pittsburgh or Washington to be the top team, but the Philadelphia Flyers or New Jersey Devils could sneak in and disrupt things enough for the Hurricanes to run away with the Metropolitan title in the regular season.

Though the Columbus Blue Jackets are forecasted to have the same number of points as the Flyers in both October and November, it’s worth noting that Philadelphia is forecasted to amass 29 regulation wins to Columbus’ 23 regulation wins in the latest projection, so yeah, they’re a team.

The Blue Jackets could be within striking distance of a playoff spot or they could simply be better than the Rangers and Devils and that’s about it in their attempt to do something.

Is it a rebuild or are they just holding out for the right offseason moves? Time will tell, but the time may be ticking on prolonged irrelevance.

Anyway, Washington and Pittsburgh have cooled off as Carolina got out to the best start among all 32 teams, which, given the eight points between 1st and 3rd in the November forecast, could indicate that the Hurricanes will usurp the Capitals and Penguins for division control.

Meanwhile, the longer the Islanders go without setting a tone, the better chance the Flyers have at making the postseason.

In the Central Division, the St. Louis Blues are expected to return to form entering October from a pure forecast standpoint.

Is it realistic? Probably not, though St. Louis should be better than their 2021 First Round exit in four games at the hands of the Avalanche.

That said, Colorado may surprise you being so low in this forecast.

Again, remember that it’s an average of models based on the last decade, five seasons and three seasons, so the Avs rise to division dominance in recent years is better reflected on the contingency that they continue to play well.

Right now, they aren’t playing that well, but again the graphic above reads “entering October” not “entering November”, so perhaps I should’ve saved that tidbit for a minute.

Meanwhile, the Nashville Predators, Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild have all been consistent enough in recent years to earn better praise entering the 2021-22 calendar, but at least one of those teams is sure to reveal themselves as a pretender by about the quarter-mark of the season.

As for the Dallas Stars, Chicago and the Arizona Coyotes, well, if Dallas can stay healthy, they should improve. Chicago hasn’t done themselves any favors in terms of roster makeup and the Coyotes are intentionally steering the ship aground for a top lottery draft pick in 2022.

Not much has changed after one month of NHL action in the Central Division forecast, though it should be noted just how quickly Arizona’s fallen off (even though they were already expected to be a basement team given the immense roster turnover over the summer).

The Wild and Jets flipped positions courtesy of Minnesota gaining a point between October and November’s forecast, as well as the regulation win tiebreaker (entering November, the Wild are forecasted to have 36 regulation wins, while the Jets are forecasted to finish with 31).

The Blues have had a hot start and, as a result, remain atop the Central forecast while nearly every expert analyst’s Stanley Cup favorite not named the Lightning (Colorado) remains in 5th.

Weird times!

Entering the 2021-22 season, the Vegas Golden Knights made a big trade, but looked to be on the verge of contending for the Presidents’ Trophy in back-to-back seasons.

Though they lost the Presidents’ race to the Avalanche last season on a tiebreaker, the Golden Knights could benefit from an overall weaker division they’re in. And yet… (keep reading)

The Calgary Flames are surprisingly hot in the Pacific forecast entering October, but considering the three California teams, the uncertainty of Seattle and the volatile wishy-washiness of the Vancouver Canucks, it kind of makes sense.

What doesn’t make sense is the Edmonton Oilers– with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on their roster– seated in 5th place in the Pacific Division.

Then again, to repeat myself, this forecast is an average based on the last 10, five and three seasons, so the Oilers have really only been a consistent playoff contender for the last five seasons or so, which means that they won’t rise in the forecasted standings quite as fast as you’d hope.

It pays to be consistently good over a longer period of time in this model.

Finally, after their first nine games in NHL history, the Kraken have entered the chat in the 2021-22 forecast entering November, but they’re forecasted for a league-worst 64 points.

Seattle isn’t bad, necessarily, they’re just figuring out the chemistry on the ice, in the room and giving Philipp Grubauer plenty of time to learn the system and get acquainted with being the No. 1 goaltender on a new team– both in the brand new expansion team sense and since leaving the Avalanche for the Kraken in free agency.

The Flames are continuing to turn heads by being within striking range of taking the forecasted division lead from Vegas– especially as the Golden Knights roll slowly out of the gate.

Meanwhile, Edmonton’s on course for significant gains in the next forecast entering December, while everything else looks to be about the same because, after all, it is the Pacific Division.

It’s not great!


If you’ve read every word of this, congrats. Give yourself a sticker or something.

Stay tuned for the next forecast in about a month. It should be a little quicker to update the stats, write a few words and hit “publish” than it took this time around.

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NHL Nick's Net Numbers Game

Your Team Will Rise/Fail: 2021-22 Standings Projections

It is time. The 2021-22 season is upon us.

Technically it already started, but we’ll ignore the fact that the Pittsburgh Penguins spoiled the Tampa Bay Lightning’s 2021 Stanley Cup champion banner night with a, 6-2, victory on the road before the Vegas Golden Knights held off a Seattle Kraken comeback in a, 4-3, win at T-Mobile Arena on Tuesday night.

And then Wednesday’s games happened too.

Let’s hit the “reset” button for a second and pretend the 2021-22 is about to get underway. All 32 National Hockey League teams have a chance at clinching 16 available playoff berths.

Any of the 16 teams that make the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs could etch 52 names from their roster, front office and organization on the Stanley Cup next June.

The usual divisions– Atlantic, Central, Metropolitan and Pacific– have returned as have the Eastern Conference and Western Conference. The regular playoff format is back (three teams per division, two wild cards per conference qualify, plus the Conference Finals round returns in place of the Stanley Cup Semfinals in 2021).

A full 82-game regular season schedule is slated from October through the end of April with a three-week break in February for the 2022 All Star Game in Las Vegas and the 2022 Winter Games taking precedence before a return to NHL action down the stretch with the postseason kicking off in May like last year and the 2022-23 season likely returning to the pre-pandemic timeline (2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs starting in April).

The 2022 NHL Entry Draft will be in Montréal on July 7th and 8th, while free agency begins on July 13th, but between now and then, we’ve got the 2021-22 regular season to enjoy.

Using last season’s team goals for and team goals against, plus some other “magic numbers” as part of an expected points model, we’re able to project what 2021-22 could be for all 32 teams (yes, even the Seattle Kraken, despite this year being their first season)– though you’ll have to pretend there were no transactions made in the offseason.

In other words, don’t think that any of what you’re about to see is set in stone– view it more as a suggestion for a possible outcome.

Also, please remember my degree is in communication, so any math beyond figuring out “goals + assists = season point totals” doesn’t exist.

In a normal year (like from 2017-18 to 2018-19, for example), you just take all the data from the 82-game schedule for each team plug it into a formula in a spreadsheet, then line things up accordingly in each division.

However, just like how the shortened 2019-20 season disrupted the regular process for projecting a 2020-21 standings outlook, going from last season’s stats in a 56-game schedule to projecting a regular 82-game season in 2021-22 necessitated the use of forecasting point pace as part of the formula.

As for Seattle, a simple means of taking the NHL stats from last season for every player on their roster and plugging it in for a 2021-22 result is exactly what I did.

We’re all just making it up as we go along, folks. These are projections. They are not absolutes.

For the sake of keeping it simple, here’s a look at how things could go (but probably not) in each division for the upcoming 2021-22 season.

The overall vibe of the Central Division for 2021-22 is that it’s just more of exactly what you’d expect. The Colorado Avalanche are lightyears ahead of everyone else, while Kirill Kaprizov and the Minnesota Wild continue to be on the rise and everyone else fights for what they can earn.

Meanwhile, the jury is still out on whether or not the Winnipeg Jets can breakthrough as Canada’s team and break the Canadian curse (become the first Canadian club to win the Cup since 1993).

Will Colorado finally break through the Second Round and win the Cup?

Are the Avalanche just the Toronto Maple Leafs but with a little more success? My column:

No, but really, it’s worth asking if the Avs making it back to the Western Conference Final for the first time since 2002, is more like Toronto’s struggle to make it out of the First Round for the first time since 2004, or is Colorado’s struggle more like the Washington Capitals pre-2018?

The Caps won three Presidents’ Trophies in 2009-10, 2015-16 and 2016-17, but couldn’t make it past the Second Round– let alone the Pittsburgh Penguins– until they finally did and ended up surging in momentum all the way to their first Stanley Cup in franchise history.

Colorado, on the other hand, has already won the Cup twice (1996 and 2001) and also has three Presidents’ Trophies to their name in 1996-97, 2000-01 and 2020-21, so if recent history has anything to tell us it’s that yet another team with high expectations for at least a few seasons now only to come up short could very well go on to win it all after winning the Presidents’ Trophy the previous year.

Either that or they’ll have to win it in back-to-back seasons like Washington did before they won the Cup in 2018.

Then again, the Tampa Bay Lightning tied the Detroit Red Wings’ record for most wins in the regular season (62), securing the Presidents’ Trophy in the process in 2018-19, then got swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 2019 First Round.

The very next year, however, Tampa kicked off back-to-back Cup rings in 2020 and 2021, to be where they are now as the two-time defending champions likely standing in the path as the only other favorites outside of the Avalanche this season.

Anyway, the Avs mostly kept things the same from last season to this season, losing Joonas Donskoi to the Seattle Kraken in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft, Brandon Saad to the St. Louis Blues in free agency and making minor swaps among replacement level bottom-six forwards and bottom-pairing defenders.

Oh, then there’s this whole thing about how Philipp Grubauer left for Seattle in free agency too, so Colorado acquired Darcy Kuemper from the Arizona Coyotes.

Between Dallas, Nashville and St. Louis, who will realistically make the playoffs?

The Stars are projected to finish with about 94 points, the Predators sit at 92 points and the Blues are around 91 points in this one projection, but don’t let the points alone be your deciding factor.

Given the strength of the Central Division compared to the Pacific Division, you can bet on five teams making out of the Central among Western Conference playoff berths.

As such, the spread is the difference maker between these three teams expected to be in the wild card hunt– it’s going to come down to the wire one way or another.

Dallas bolstered their goaltending depth by signing Braden Holtby, Nashville traded Ryan Ellis to the Philadelphia Flyers and St. Louis is… …better than last season on paper?

I mean, the Blues signed Saad, acquired Pavel Buchnevich from the New York Rangers in exchange for Sammy Blais, let Seattle claim Vince Dunn at the expansion draft and let Mike Hoffman walk to the Montréal Canadiens in July.

You could say they took a hit here or there, but those aren’t “nobody names” by any means, however.

If Jordan Binnington and Ville Husso can stabilize things in the crease, then St. Louis has a better situation than the Predators.

The Stars, meanwhile, should benefit from a longer season where more of their core guys– like Tyler Seguin, for example– are healthy. Last season’s COVID-19 outbreak to kick things off in January really killed Dallas’ momentum as a team on the verge of being in the 2021 postseason.

Dallas should get back into the swing of things and St. Louis should be able to stay relevant for at least another year, but how hard the Preds rely on Juuse Saros as their starting goaltender will dictate whether or not they’re able to play spoiler with David Rittich as their backup since Pekka Rinne retired.

Can Arizona avoid the basement?

Anything is possible at this point. Loui Eriksson and Andrew Ladd were scoring goals in the postseason, so a fresh start could be just what both players needed for the last few years at least.

That said, Coyotes General Manager, Bill Armstrong, gave a Masterclass™️ in how to go about rebuilding by selling everything over the summer and taking on “bad” contracts with only one or two years remaining in hopes of playing just well enough to be bad enough without making it look obvious that you’re aiming to win the 2022 NHL Draft Lottery.

The Pacific Division is the new Scotia NHL North Division from last season. In other words, it’s the worst– which is great news for the Seattle Kraken as the league’s schedule allots more division play than any other opponents (though the Kraken will play every other team in the league at least twice).

Seattle’s riding the waves of new-age expansion, while the Vegas Golden Knights lead the charge for the Presidents’ Trophy campaign in 2021-22.

Wait, Seattle in 2nd in the Pacific, really?

Yes, really.

The Kraken have a great front office that goes beyond just Ron Francis as General Manager and have done their due diligence in scouting the best talent available to try to replicate the success of the Vegas Golden Knights’ inaugural season in 2017-18, as well as grow beyond just 2021-22.

That said, Seattle probably isn’t going to make it out of the First Round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, even if they have to face the Edmonton Oilers according to this projection.

It’s a best case scenario for the NHL’s newest expansion team to be in the weakest division, but aside from having recent Stanley Cup champions Yanni Gourde, Philipp Grubauer, Jaden Schwartz and Dunn on their roster, the Kraken have a plethora of players that are relatively inexperienced with deep postseason runs.

Head coach, Dave Hakstol, also hasn’t had the consistency of making the playoffs and making it out of the First Round in his NHL coaching days, but as a team that, again, is looking to develop long-term success, these are mere growing pains Francis and Co. are willing to accept as the fan base grows.

Why aren’t the Kings making the cut this year when everyone else says they’ll be the most improved?

The simple answer is that everyone’s overrating Los Angeles when it comes to the “ready now” factor.

Sure, Kings General Manager, Rob Blake, did a good thing by getting Viktor Arvidsson in a trade with Nashville this summer to solidify his top-six forward group and signed Alex Edler to fortify his defense, but Los Angeles’ goaltending leaves something to be desired.

Here’s hoping Jonathan Quick can find a little resurgence at this point in his career, while Cal Petersen continues to come into his own.

If Los Angeles has any injuries– and they already have with Arvidsson likely missing some time due to an injury in the last preseason game– they’re already close enough to the bubble that they’ll only fall further behind.

That said, if the Kings don’t make it back to the postseason hunt in 2022, there’s a good chance they make it in 2023.

Los Angeles is improving, but by how much remains to be seen.

Will winning the Presidents’ Trophy hurt Vegas?

Eh, it’s hard to say.

The Golden Knights have packed in just about every type of heartbreak since their inception in 2017, that fans of other franchises have only experienced over the course of at least 50 years, so if Vegas pulls out the Presidents’ Trophy win in 2021-22, don’t be surprised when the inevitable happens and they win the Cup instead of doing what most other Presidents’ Trophy winners in the salary cap era have done.

Only the 2007-08 Detroit Red Wings and Chicago in 2012-13, have been able to win the Presidents’ Trophy and the Stanley Cup since the salary cap was introduced ahead of the 2005-06 season.

Vegas would probably join Detroit and Chicago in doing so just so the Hockey Gods can spite us again.

It’s not easy to be in the Metropolitan Division these days because, well, let’s save that for the three questions below.

Is this the toughest division to project?

Absolutely.

The Carolina Hurricanes decided to just get rid of a few parts and pieces that helped make them good for the last few seasons, so they’re bound to regress even with Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teräväinen and Martin Necas still existing.

The Pittsburgh Penguins since 2009, have always found a way to be near the top of the division standings by the end of the regular season no matter whether or not you believe they’ll inevitably miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006, so anything could happen there.

The New York Islanders have made back-to-back appearances in the Eastern Conference Final, so I’d expect them to be good.

The Washington Capitals are better than the Philadelphia Flyers and New York Rangers, at least, but are probably the only team on the bubble if the New Jersey Devils can come out of nowhere and be competitive this season after signing Dougie Hamilton, Tomas Tatar and Jonathan Bernier in the offseason.

Meanwhile, it’s time for a short rebuild in Columbus as the Blue Jackets would be quite pleased with a top draft pick in 2022.

What if Chris Drury never was promoted as General Manager of the Rangers?

They’d still fire David Quinn and hire Gerard Gallant. I don’t think that’s such a bad idea, but they’d definitely reconsider about 90% of the roster decisions made this summer.

There’s no reason why the Rangers have to go down this path and yet, here they are, fumbling at the one-yard line and possibly plunging their franchise back into the Dark Ages of another rebuild. Or is it the same ongoing rebuild?

What about a team to watch like New Jersey, for example?

I’m big on the Devils this season for some strange reason.

Maybe it’s because a part of me deep down misses the trap game of the 1990s and 2000s that led to Stanley Cups for New Jersey in 1995, 2000 and 2003.

Maybe it’s because they signed Hamilton, Tatar, Bernier and acquired Ryan Graves from the Colorado Avalanche as a supporting cast for Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha, Yegor Sharangovich, Ty Smith and friends.

Seriously, the Devils should be good in the next few seasons, but this year could be the biggest stride forward in terms of their improvement from the basement to their development as a playoff contender.

First, pour one out for Jack Eichel. Now, let’s move on and talk about everyone else.

What does this mean for the Leafs?

Just like how the Stars, Preds and Blues are all right on top of one another in the Central Division standings, the Atlantic Division is stacked from 1st through 4th, so though Toronto leads the way in this projection, I wouldn’t feel too comfortable as a Leafs fan.

The Maple Leafs played in the worst of the four divisions last year in the temporarily realigned divisions in wake of the ongoing pandemic.

No, it’s not just because they played all the other Canadian teams across 56 games, but rather it’s due to the fact that they haven’t been able to matchup with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers and even the Boston Bruins since the 2019-20 season.

A lot and not a lot has changed since then.

Tampa is still dominant as ever, Florida has emerged as a team that’s on the rise and Boston is unpredictable in that– much like the Penguins– it could really go either way with the Bruins this season.

So now Toronto has to take on better competition within their own division and square off with teams like the Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche, New York Islanders and others that emerge towards the top of the standings outside of the Canadian teams that the Leafs are all too familiar with at this point.

That said, Toronto still has a great chance at winning the Atlantic Division regular season title or finishing 2nd and having home ice advantage in the First Round for the second-straight postseason.

Can anyone other than Toronto, Florida, Tampa or Boston make it out of the Atlantic this year?

No. Let’s be realistic here.

The Montréal Canadiens made it to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final despite being below .500 in the standings because every division produced four playoff berths and intra-divisional play through two rounds.

In 2020, they upset the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Qualifier despite finishing right at .500.

In any other non-pandemic timeline, the Canadiens would still be looking for their first playoff appearance since they lost to the New York Rangers in six games in the 2017 First Round.

That’s not to say that Nick Suzuki can’t lead the Habs back to glory, but rather that they need to improve all-around in the regular season and peaking in performance in the playoffs.

Though the Ottawa Senators promised unprecedented success from 2021-25, it’s looking like it’ll realistically be anytime between 2024-25 as in the 2024-25 season itself at this point.

Ottawa’s goaltending needs to improve, their defense could use some tweaks and the Sens are banking on their offense getting their feet underneath them and bursting in production in the coming years.

A little more patience won’t hurt them.

The same can be said for the Detroit Red Wings in that Red Wings fans already know– trust in General Manager, Steve Yzerman, is paramount. He’ll work his magic.

It just takes a little time to build a solid foundation and the first floor is almost ready to start going up.

As for the Buffalo Sabres, well…

At least they’ll hopefully give Rick Jeanneret a proper send-off before he retires as their play-by-play announcer for the last 51 years on television.

Hopefully.

Will Tampa win three consecutive Stanley Cup championships?

Probably not.

I’m not ruling it out entirely, but the Lightning have a better chance of winning three Cups in four years than they do three Cups in as many years as things stand currently.

The loss of their entire third line (Blake Coleman, Yanni Gourde and Barclay Goodrow) from last season to this season is sure to leave a mark on the development and restructuring of their bottom-six forwards.

That said, Tampa’s top-six forwards still exist and, if you haven’t already noticed, they’re very good on their own, but the best teams in the playoffs have four lines that can roll without a doubt and the Bolts might just be off the ball for a year in terms of depth.


Alright, if you’ve made it this far, thanks for your patience. By now the season’s already going on a few days into the 2021-22 calendar, so the two of us (or more if you’re reading this to a group) should probably get back to watching games.

Stay tuned for more forecasts for both standings and assorted teams throughout the season.

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NHL Nick's Net Numbers Game

Numbers Game: 2020-21 Season Standings Projections

As the calendar flipped from 2020 to 2021 at midnight while New Year’s Eve turned into New Year’s Day, the ongoing global pandemic continued without a second thought despite the world’s optimism for the New Year and, thus, shifted the 2020-21 National Hockey League season into an abbreviated 56-game schedule from Jan. 13th through the first week of May.

Usually, it’d be fine to present divisional projections in accordance with a normal 82-game expected points total formula, but the aforementioned 56-game season schedule would render those numbers inaccurate from the beginning.

82 games is 26 games too many this season.

It would be fine to run a “what if the 2020-21 season were a regular-length season?” piece, but it’s more fun to tackle a challenge when everything’s made up and the points don’t matter.

Seriously, don’t look into this too much unless you’re an employee of a team looking to hire someone right now, in which case please ignore the “C” I had in Intro to Stats in college.

Anyway, I’ve taken the liberties of calculating what an 82-game 2020-21 season would’ve looked like, then based the projections for what the 56-game 2020-21 season could look like using this little thing called “pace”.

That’s right. Points pace.

You know, like “if a team earned two points with a win in their first game in an 82-game season, they’d be on a 164-point pace for the season”.

In actuality, the team could go 3-6-1 over their first ten games, yielding seven points on the season through that span and being on a 57.4-point pace over the course of an 82-game season.

If this is too much math you can just tell me to shut up and get to the graphs.

For the sake of keeping it simple, here’s a look at how things might go in each division for the upcoming 2020-21 season.

Starting with the NHL’s all-Canadian North Division for the 2020-21 regular season, there’s a few things that jump out immediately as a result of the current projections.

Did realignment have any impact on what the projections look like?

No. For the record, this season’s temporary realignment had no impact on any of the divisions other than how they’re organized.

Instead of seeing the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators in the Atlantic Division, the Winnipeg Jets in the Central Division and the Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks in the Pacific Division– they’re all just in the same division.

The expected points total is calculated by first adding marginal goals for and marginal goals against, then multiplying that result by league points per goal.

Divide the number of points expected based on the formula’s derived for what an 82-game season in 2020-21 would’ve looked like by 82 games, then multiply that result by 56 (the number of games in actuality for 2020-21) and you get… …the same exact results you would’ve had for each team if the divisions hadn’t been realigned.

So Montreal would’ve still had an expected points total of 52 points regardless of being in the Atlantic Division or North Division.

The schedule plays no impact on the expected points model.

So every team is just going to earn about a point-a-game?

Not necessarily.

Either all the Canadian teams are playing at about the same level of intensity, which makes for great parity– especially in a division solely comprised of Canadian market clubs.

Or they just would’ve been wherever they would’ve been within their own usual division, but when they’re thrown together it looks… …worse?

In a non-pandemic timeline, the Canadian clubs would be scattered all over the standings with the Oilers competing for the top spot in the Pacific Division with the Vegas Golden Knights, while the Senators would likely be bottom dwellers in the Atlantic.

With the all-Canadian North Division, the best teams could really run away with things or all seven teams could eat each other alive in the division.

What’s the good news then?

At least one Canadian team will make it into the 2021 Stanley Cup Semifinal, since the first two rounds will be intra-divisional matchups.

Under the current projection, Winnipeg would face Vancouver in the First Round, while Edmonton would take on Toronto in the First Round.

In the West Division, the Colorado Avalanche are the team to beat. The Avs are hungry to avenge their Second Round exit against the Dallas Stars in the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs if they can stay healthy and bring the Cup back to Denver for the first time since 2001.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Blues might have some questions surrounding their goaltending, but the additions of Mike Hoffman and Torey Krug greatly outweigh the subtraction of Alex Pietrangelo– at least when it comes to regular season production.

In terms of experience and leadership, the Vegas Golden Knights picked up Pietrangelo’s talents via free agency and should be in contention for home ice advantage if they’re able to overcome St. Louis’ projected standing.

What about the meat of the order?

Both the Minnesota Wild and Arizona Coyotes are in a lot better shape than the Californian hockey teams.

The Wild have Kaapo Kähkönen coming down the pipeline in the crease and depending on how soon he can arrive might influence their final standing compared to Arizona.

Whereas Minnesota must rely on aging veterans, Cam Talbot and Alex Stalock in net, the Coyotes have Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta– a serviceable tandem for Arizona’s needs.

Mikko Koivu was sent out to find a new home as an influx of youth should make the Wild more competitive, but how much will Arizona’s playoff experience play into their drive for making at least another First Round appearance this season– despite losing Carl Söderberg in free agency to the Chicago Blackhawks and trading Derek Stepan to the Ottawa in the offseason.

Time will tell.

Is this the weakest division?

The all-Canadian North Division has the advantage of playing each other and sorting things out themselves instead of spreading their Canadian talents (or lack thereof depending on the team) throughout the league, so yes, the West Division is likely the weakest.

The Los Angeles Kings have some growing pains and salary cap hell to sort out. The Anaheim Ducks are a young team that’s finding their chemistry and building their experience, but are one or two years away from playoff contention.

Finally, the San Jose Sharks have an ever-regressing duo of Martin Jones and Devan Dubnyk in the crease to go along with whatever’s left on their blue line that’s not named Brent Burns and (a supposedly 100% healthy) Erik Karlsson.

At least the Sharks brought back Patrick Marleau (third time’s a charm) and other than that, they don’t have that bad of a forward group.

In the 2012-13 lockout shortened 48-game season, 20 out of the league’s then 30 teams at the time finished with at least 49 points or more in the season.

The 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks finished 19 points away from a perfect 96-point season– amassing 77 points in 48 games with a 36-7-5 record.

Chicago is going through a rebuild without Jonathan Toews for possibly an extended period of time and with Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia in the crease.

The good news? They’ll likely end up with a solid lottery pick in the 2021 NHL Draft.

The bad news? They’re not going to find themselves having a repeat of their 2013 Stanley Cup championship.

Will any team from the Central Division be like those 2012-13 Blackhawks though?

It’s funny that you ask, because the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning would have to win at least 75% of their games if they want to be anything like the 2012-13 Blackhawks.

Whereas Chicago won 36 out of 48, Tampa would have to win 42 out of 56 games.

It’s not that the Lightning can’t reach 84 points in the 2020-21 season– especially since the Blackhawks almost reached 80 in a shorter span, but rather how good will the rest of the Central Division be and how will the intra-divisional games only schedule impact, well, everything?

Tampa is projected as the regular season division winners with 66 points on the season.

The formula doesn’t take into account the loss of Braydon Coburn and Cedric Paquette in a trade with the Senators or the loss of Nikita Kucherov for the regular season due to an injury.

It doesn’t take into consideration the intra-divisional schedule, other injuries that are sure to occur, transactions, acts of The Hockey Gods, etc.

The 2012-13 Blackhawks had the advantage of facing mostly regular opponents over 48 games, then progressing through the old format of the playoffs where teams were seeded 1-8 among six divisions of five teams.

Tampa just has to be one of the top-four teams in their division over 56 games against all too familiar faces from night-to-night, then emerge victorious out of the Central to defend their title.

Anything is possible.

Can the Florida Panthers really be a playoff team?

Yes, the expected points model seems to indicate that the Florida Panthers were pretty good at finding the net in the regular season last year and that they should improve their standing, at least.

It doesn’t, however, determine whether or not Sergei Bobrovsky returns to form in quality starts, shutouts, etc.

New Panthers General Manager, Bill Zito, has added Markus Nutivaara and Radko Gudas to the blue line, as well as Anthony Duclair and Patric Hörnqvist to the forwards, so they should definitely be harder to play than in years past.

Gut feeling says three-time Stanley Cup champion head coach, Joel Quenneville, can make something more out of the pieces he’s been handed this season than in 2019-20.

Are the Detroit Red Wings really that bad?

No, but they didn’t do themselves any favors when it comes to utilizing last season’s data for determining this season’s expected points total.

Marginal goals for and marginal goals against can be a cruel animal, but it’s one of the best things to take into account of recency bias.

Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman added Vladislav Namestnikov, Bobby Ryan, Marc Staal, Troy Stecher, Jon Merrill, Alex Biega and Thomas Greiss to his team, so they won’t at least be intentional pushovers like last season.

The loss of Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug in the offseason for the Boston Bruins comes with a price– having to face Chara eight times in the regular season, then possibly Krug and the St. Louis Blues in a 2019 Stanley Cup Final rematch in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final.

Just kidding, the window appears mostly shut in the Hub.

It’s not that Boston can’t win, but rather that they have a bit of an uphill battle to get there.

Yes, their defense is younger, but it’s also more inexperienced. Yes, they added Craig Smith for goal scoring power, but it’s no Mike Hoffman.

At least David Pastrnak is looking to make a return ahead of schedule from his offseason surgery, but don’t be fooled by their six-point lead over the Philadelphia Flyers in the East Division projection.

Every second matters in a 56-game season. If they get off to a rocky start, they risk going from a surefire playoff contender (for at least another year or two) to missing out on the 2021 postseason.

The Buffalo Sabres added Taylor Hall, what gives?

Again, if you haven’t learned by now, expected points totals do not take signing the 2017-18 Hart Memorial Trophy winner to a one-year, $8.000 million contract into account.

Hall could be the winger Jack Eichel needs to convince him not to ask for a trade request as much as Eichel could be what Hall needs for a little rejuvenation and to be convinced to stay longer in his reunion with Sabres head coach, Ralph Krueger.

No matter what, though, the addition of Eric Staal and more in Buffalo means there’s sure to be improvement this season.

If it was the regular Atlantic Division, the Sabres might be looking at a wild card situation.

But since it’s the temporarily realigned East Division for 2020-21, yeah, there’s a lot more harder competition. Take the Hall pass and try again next season (maybe you’ll get the 1st overall pick).

Explain to me how the New York Rangers and New York Islanders miss the playoffs?

This one is fairly simple.

The East Division is just six teams out of the regular Metropolitan Division, plus the Bruins (pretty good) and Sabres (pretty bad).

As such, it’s almost as if nothing ever happened in terms of the compete level of the overall division, but the playoff format yields only the top-four teams from each division for 2020-21.

Instead of getting, say, seven Metropolitan teams (impossible, yes, but let’s pretend) in the upcoming postseason, you can only have four.

If the B’s are taking one of those spots like they are in this projection, that limits the usual Metropolitan contenders to three leftover playoff berths.

If anything, the Pittsburgh Penguins are at the greatest risk of sliding out of the postseason picture with Tristan Jarry as their starting goaltender and Casey DeSmith as their backup after trading Matt Murray to Ottawa in the offseason.

That’s good news for the Islanders, probably, though the Rangers have more talent on paper (especially if Mathew Barzal isn’t re-signed when the puck drops on Jan. 13th).


So that’s it.

If you’ve made it this far and read every word– congrats, it’s probably time for puck drop already. Surely the calendar must read Jan. 13th by now and you can get back to watching that game you just tuned into.

Stay tuned for more forecasts and (un)related things that don’t have anything to do with expected points totals.

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NHL Nick's Net Numbers Game

Take Five: Five takeaways from Game 4 of the 2020 Western Conference Final

For the first time since 2000, the Dallas Stars are one win away from reaching the Stanley Cup Final.

It’s been 21 years since the Stars won it all in 1999, and after Saturday night’s, 2-1, victory over the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 4 of the 2020 Western Conference Final, Dallas is five wins away from raising the Cup for what would be the second time in franchise history.

All of the scoring occurred in the second period of Saturday night’s game as Alec Martinez kicked things off for Vegas with a power-play goal and a, 1-0, lead at 7:44 of the middle frame before Joe Pavelski (9) lucked out on a shot that fluttered off of Nate Schmidt’s stick and over the shoulders of Robin Lehner– tying the game, 1-1, in the process at 11:34.

Late in the second period, Jamie Benn notched his seventh goal of the postseason while on the power play for the eventual game-winning goal as the Stars took the lead, 2-1, at 19:01 of the second period.

Dallas leads the series 3-1 and can make the 2020 Stanley Cup Final with a win in Game 5 on Monday (8 p.m. ET on NBCSN, CBC, SN, TVAS).

1. Vegas is doing that thing again.

The Golden Knights opened the night with the lead in shots on goal, 13-5, after one period, then, 24-14, through two periods and finally, 33-20, after the final horn.

In true hockey fashion, naturally the Stars won, 2-1.

In just this series alone against Dallas, Vegas had the same number of shots as the Stars in Game 1 (25-25), outshot Dallas in Game 2 (32-24), outshot Dallas in Game 3 (40-23), as well as in Game 4 for a grand total of 130 shots against the Stars compared to Dallas’ 92 total shots on goal in the series.

If you’re wondering, both teams have scored six goals in the series.

That’s some serious inefficiency from the Golden Knights– facing a hot goaltender or not, we saw this problem as the Vancouver Canucks were forced to switch goaltenders from Jacob Markstrom to Thatcher Demko due to Markstrom’s injury in the Second Round.

Vegas might also not be getting high quality shots, but at this point the only thing that matters is that they trail in the series 3-1 and face elimination on Monday.

2. First one to score wins the game, but not actually.

Entering Saturday night, the Golden Knights had 10 wins when scoring first, which leads all teams in the 2020 playoffs.

Alas, Dallas scored two unanswered goals for their seventh comeback win of this postseason– the most among the teams in the 2020 postseason.

In their run to their first and only Stanley Cup championship so far back in 1999, the Stars recorded nine comeback wins (the most playoff comebacks in Minnesota North Stars/Dallas Stars franchise history).

3. That’s making the most of your chances.

Despite only having six shots on goal– including one in the second period alone– Pavelski scored on Dallas’ seventh shot of the game and second shot on net in the middle frame as the puck deflected of of Schmidt’s stick and floated in the air, over Lehner and into the twine.

Dallas ended up finishing the second period trialing in shots on goal in that period alone, 11-9, but led, 2-1, on the scoreboard entering the second intermission.

Considering only three goals were scored by the two teams in the entire game– that’s getting a lot for your dollar in one period, you know, considering how Vegas finished the night leading in shots, 33-20.

4. Everything’s bigger in Texas.

And nothing is bigger than Anton Khudobin these days.

Yes, even though the Stars are in Edmonton, Alberta these days while participating in the Stanley Cup Playoffs bubble courtesy of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Khudobin is 7-1 when making at least 30 saves in a game this postseason. Markstrom was the only other goaltender with at least five wins in that scenario as the Canucks goalie went 5-3 in games where he faced 30 or more shots.

In the meantime, Khudobin has a 2.67 goals against average, a .918 save percentage and one shutout in 18 games played this postseason to go along with his 11-6 record overall.

5. Chance to advance (for Dallas).

I don’t know how else to make this any more apparent, but the Golden Knights trail in the series 3-1, which means that the Stars could make the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since they lost to the New Jersey Devils in six games in the 2000 Stanley Cup Final.

If you didn’t have the Stars making a deep run in the playoffs, well, it’s understandable since there was five months off between the shortened regular season and postseason action, but also they’ve been a dark horse all along– lurking in the shadows of the St. Louis Blues, Colorado Avalanche and Golden Knights battling for Western Conference dominance as one of the best regular season teams.

When it mattered most, the Stars turned it on.

They relied on last year’s heartbreak as motivation for this year’s power through– even in the face of an injury to their regular starting goaltender, Ben Bishop.

Simply put, this is an incredible run.

Even if Vegas bows out in five games, Dallas can’t say it was all that easy to wrap things up in a short amount of time.

Again, there’s only been 12 combined goals in the entire series thus far– split evenly between the two clubs.

On the other hand, the Golden Knights could make the Stars unnerved by forcing a Game 6 and possibly a Game 7 afterward, but there’s less of a chance of Dallas blowing a 3-1 series lead than there is of Vegas scoring five goals on Khudobin in a game (it seems anyway).

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NHL Nick's Net Numbers Game

Look To The Rafters: Dallas Stars (Part II)

In the early days of DTFR, we made an educated guess as to who each team might honor in the future regarding retired jersey numbers. Since then, the Vegas Golden Knights came into existence and more than a few jersey numbers went out of circulation across the league. 

It’s time for an update and a look at who the Dallas Stars might honor by hanging their name and number from the rafters of American Airlines Center someday.

Dallas Stars Current Retired Numbers

7 Neal Broten

8 Bill Goldsworthy

9 Mike Modano

19 Bill Masterton

26 Jere Lehtinen

Did Anything Change In The Last Five Years?

Yes! Jere Lehtinen’s No. 26 was retired by the Stars on Nov. 24, 2017, and Dallas has plans to retire Hockey Hall of Famer, Sergei Zubov’s No. 56 next season (2020-21). Both are equally deserving of the highest honor bestowed upon them by the team.

Possible Numbers to Retire Someday

3 John Klingberg

If there’s one under the radar defender in the National Hockey League more than anyone else these days, it’s John Klingberg.

To the casual fan, the Stars might be easy to overlook and, as a result, Klingberg’s name often goes unnoticed with it, but in 425 career NHL games so far (all with Dallas), he’s amassed 58-233–291 totals.

Until the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic shortened the 2019-20 regular season, he never had fewer than 40 points in a season, which is a tremendous rate of production from a defender in today’s NHL.

Though he had six goals and 26 assists (32 points) in 58 games this season, Klingberg was on pace for about 45 points.

In 2016-17, he established a career-high in goals with 13 tallies in 80 games, then followed up wiht a career-year (so far) in 2017-18, setting career-highs in assists (59) and points (67) in a full, 82-game, season.

As one of the cornerstone defenders for the franchise (Miro Heiskanen being the other), there’s a chance Klingberg will endure lengthy success and translate that into more points on the scoresheet over the years. All of that is to say that the Gothenburg, Sweden native that was drafted in the fifth round (131st overall) by Dallas in 2010, is on the right track for a promising legacy in a Stars sweater that just might lead to No. 3 being raised to the rafters at American Airlines Center.

10 Brenden Morrow

Morrow spent parts of 13 seasons in Dallas, notching 243 goals and 285 assists (528 points) in 835 career games for the Stars from 1999-2013. 

On March 24, 2013, he was dealt to the Pittsburgh Penguins with the Minnesota Wild’s 2013 3rd round pick (previously acquired, Pittsburgh selected Jake Guentzel) for Joe Morrow (no relation) and Pittsburgh’s 2013 5th round pick (Matej Paulovic).

After finishing the 2012-13 season with the Penguins, Morrow made stops with the St. Louis Blues in 2013-14 and Tampa Bay Lightning in 2014-15, before retiring from the NHL with 265-310–575 totals in 991 career NHL games.

Shawn Horcoff, Patrick Sharp, Martin Hanzal and Corey Perry have all worn No. 10 in Dallas since Morrow’s departure, so it would seem as though the Stars have already made up their mind about the winger’s career, but never say never.

There’s a chance that it just might take a little time before the former Stars captain is formally recognized for his contributions to the organization over the years since being drafted by Dallas in the first round (25th overall) in 1997, having the 5th most games played in franchise history, being tied for 8th in all-time franchise goals scored, as well as sitting 9th in all-time franchise points records.

14 Jamie Benn

The current longest-tenured player in Dallas, Benn has been around with the Stars since breaking into the league in the 2009-10 season after being drafted by Dallas in the fifth round (129th overall) in 2007. 

That draft pick, by the way, originally belonged to the Boston Bruins, who traded it to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Adam McQuaid, then the Blue Jackets flipped the pick, as well as two more 2007 5th rounders for Los Angeles’ 2007 4th round pick (previously acquired by Dallas, Columbus selected Maksim Mayorov).

Anyway, Benn made an impact with the Stars in his rookie season, scoring 22 goals and collecting 19 assists (41 points) in 82 games.

He has only had two seasons with less than 40 points so far– once in the lockout shortened, 48-game 2012-13 season, in which Benn amassed 12-21–33 totals in 41 games, and again in the premature end to the 2019-20 season due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, in which Benn scored 19 goals and had 20 assists (39 points) in 69 games.

If you’re wondering, he was on a 66-point pace in 2012-13, had the season not been shortened due to a lockout and a 46-point pace this season prior to the pandemic cutting the 2019-20 regular season short.

In 2014-15, Benn took home the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s leading point scorer with 35-52–87 totals in 82 games, but he then went on to set career-highs in goals (41), assists (48) and points (89) the following season in 82 games in 2015-16.

The 31-year-old Victoria, British Columbia native has 300 goals and 388 assists (688 points) in 814 career games thus far for the Stars.

As one of their most consistent performers, it’s reasonable to think that No. 14 will be set aside forever and live in the rafters in Dallas after Benn hangs up his skates.

91 Tyler Seguin

There were a lot of fireworks on the U.S. Independence Day (July 4th) in 2013, as the Boston Bruins traded Seguin, Rich Peverley and Ryan Button to the Stars for Loui Eriksson, Matt Fraser, Reilly Smith and Joe Morrow.

Seguin already had 56 goals and 65 assists (121 points) in 203 games with Boston, as well as one Stanley Cup ring from his rookie season (2010-11), then things really took off with Dallas.

He had set a season-high 29 goals, 38 assists and 67 points in 81 games with Boston in his sophomore campaign of 2011-12, but in his first season with the Stars in 2013-14, Seguin scored 37 goals and 47 assists for a career-high 84 points in 80 games.

Eriksson, the biggest piece in return for Seguin, had a measly 37 points in 61 games with the Bruins in 2013-14. He didn’t find his stride in the Eastern Conference until he had 30 goals and 33 assists (63 points) in 82 games in 2015-16, but then the Bruins chose to let him walk in free agency and sign a massive six-year, $36 million contract with the Vancouver Canucks on July 1, 2016.

Nevertheless, the Stars won the Seguin trade– if not, for nothing else, because they got the bigger name in the deal (Seguin– you know, the 2nd overall pick in the 2010 Draft).

In seven seasons with Dallas, Seguin’s only had one year where he failed to reach 70 points. 

This season, due to the COVID-19 pandemic cutting the regular season short, Seguin only had  50 points (17 goals and 33 assists) in 69 games. He was on a 59-point pace at the time of the pause– two seasons removed from reaching the 40-goal plateau in 2017-18.

In 538 games with the Stars so far, Seguin has 223 goals and 291 assists (514 points) as one of the greatest transactions in franchise history. That’s pretty good– so good, he’s 10th so far among Stars leaders all-time in assists and tied for 10th with Jere Lehtinen in franchise points.

The story writes itself, No. 91 will be in the rafters in Dallas someday.

Final Thoughts

Dallas has a few candidates in the immediate and/or near future to consider for jersey retirement nights. Yet, there’s perhaps a plethora of players that are really just starting out that cannot be ignored, but shouldn’t be held to higher than realistic expectations and standards.

Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, Roope Hintz and Denis Gurianov are four quality players to build a team around– combined with the veteran presences of Klingberg, Benn, Seguin, Joe Pavelski and Ben Bishop, well, the Stars should be a strong candidate for a deep playoff run, if not Cup contenders.

Heiskanen’s put up 20-48–68 totals in 150 games so far, but it’s not always about the points with defenders. Meanwhile, Lindell is quietly doing his own thing with 27-73–100 totals in 308 games with the Stars since breaking into the league with a four-game stint in 2015-16.

Hintz avoided a sophomore slump this season after scoring nine goals and 22 points in 58 games last season, he improved to 19 goals and 14 assists (33 points) in 60 games prior to the regular season being cut short in 2019-20. That’s 28-27–55 totals in 118 games so far while he continues to develop as a young NHL player.

Meanwhile, Gurianov just wrapped up a shortened rookie season, in which he had 20 goals and 29 points in 64 games. He was on pace for a respectable 26-goal rookie season after scoring one goal in 21 games in 2018-19, and first appearing in the league in one game in 2016-17.

Odds are at least one of these guys could end up in the next edition of this five years from now.

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NHL Nick's Net Numbers Game

Look To The Rafters: Columbus Blue Jackets (Part II)

In the early days of DTFR, we made an educated guess as to who each team might honor in the future regarding retired jersey numbers. Since then, the Vegas Golden Knights came into existence and more than a few jersey numbers went out of circulation across the league. 

It’s time for an update and a look at who the Columbus Blue Jackets might honor by hanging their name and number from the rafters of Nationwide Arena someday.

Columbus Blue Jackets Current Retired Numbers

None

Did Anything Change In The Last Five Years?

No! The Blue Jackets have yet to retire any number still, but that should change as soon as possible.

Possible Numbers to Retire Someday

18 Pierre-Luc Dubois

Columbus has long needed a certified homegrown number one center on their roster, then along came Dubois 3rd overall in the 2016 NHL Draft. In his rookie season (2017-18), Dubois had 20 goals and 28 assists (48 points) in 82 games. Last season, he managed career-highs in goals (27), assists (34) and points (61) in 82 games.

Up until the abrupt end to the regular season due to the ongoing pandemic, Dubois had 18 goals and 31 assists (49 points) in 70 games and was on pace for about 57 points this season if the remainder of the regular season hadn’t been canceled.

Through 234 career games, Dubois has amassed 65-93–158 totals and brought a much more physical presence to the lineup that Blue Jackets fans likely haven’t seen since the days of Rick Nash.

With a little more time and development, perhaps Dubois can fine tune his scoring touch to emulate Nash. If not, he’s still shaping up to be in fine company and might see his No. 18 raised to the rafters of Nationwide Arena regardless.

61 Rick Nash

Nash formally retired in January 2019. Somehow Columbus doesn’t think there’s any reason to rush to put No. 61 in the rafters, but they should.

The franchise is approaching its 20th season and Nash was their first superstar while the rest of the team looked… well….

Sure you could argue that since his Blue Jackets relationship ended with him desperate to get out of Columbus and being traded to the New York Rangers on July 23, 2012, might take away some of that immediate response to honoring his legacy, but there have been other players in league history that have done less in greater lengths of time with one team then asked to be put out of their misery.

Nash had 289 goals and 258 assists (547 points) in 674 games with the Blue Jackets. He leads Columbus’ all-time stats in all four of those categories (goals, assists, points and games played).

Cam Atkinson is sitting at 571 games (2nd to Nash in franchise history) with Columbus, but with 198 goals (2nd to Nash), 170 assists (4th most all-time for Columbus) and 368 points (again, 2nd to Nash in franchise history) in his career.

Sure, Nash is destined to slide further down the top-10 list all-time one day, but he still drew eyes to the team in its infancy, put up all the points he pocketed without much of a supporting cast and, oh yeah, shared the 2003-04 Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy honors with Jarome Iginla and Ilya Kovalchuk as the league’s leading goal scorers that season with 41 goals.

Besides, as the 1st overall pick by Columbus in 2002, at least Nash had more of a successful career than Patrik Stefan did with the Atlanta Thrashers and he lasted nine seasons with the Blue Jackets whereas Kovalchuk was only a Thrasher for parts of eight seasons.

No team has ever gone without growing pains. No team has ever made their first faces of the franchise that rightfully deserve to be honored with a jersey retirement ceremony, wait it out, and see if they stack up with other franchise greats 50 years later– that’s just not how a team goes about making history and setting their standards.

Nash’s No. 61 isn’t going to be put into circulation anytime soon, why not make it formal?

71 Nick Foligno

Foligno has now almost been in Columbus as long as Nash was. Next season, Foligno will tie Nash in longevity as a Blue Jacket. The current captain of the Blue Jackets has done a lot for the team and in the community. 

It only seems fitting that, while Nash carries the flash and scoring prowess, as well as the Columbus “pioneer” image for the team years from now in its history (assuming No. 61 gets proper retirement treatment), then Foligno’s No. 71 will be a testament to character, leadership and everything in-between.

Acquired by the Blue Jackets from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for Marc Methot on July 1, 2012, Foligno has amassed 135-183–318 totals in 557 games with Columbus.

Drafted by the Senators in the first round (28th overall) in 2006, Foligno managed 148 points in his Sens tenure in 351 games from 2007-12.

He broke out with a career-year in 2014-15, scoring career-highs in goals (31), assists (42) and points (73) in 79 games with the Blue Jackets that season. Since then, he’s fallen more into a consistent role as a bottom-six forward, but still managed at least 30-points in the last three seasons.

In 67 games until the ongoing pandemic cut the regular season short, Foligno had ten goals and 21 assists for 31 points. He was on pace for about 38 points this season.

Oh and he won the King Clancy Memorial Trophy and the Mark Messier NHL Leadership Award in 2016-17.

If longevity, consistency and charity alone can earn the ultimate sign of respect from a franchise and yield a jersey retirement, then Foligno has crossed off every checkmark on the list for his time in Columbus.

Final Thoughts

In 2000, the NHL expanded to Columbus and brought back a team in Minnesota with the introduction of the Blue Jackets and the Wild. 

Minnesota shocked the hockey world and upset the Colorado Avalanche in the 2003 Stanley Cup Playoffs, eventually going on a run all the way to the Western Conference Final before being swept by the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim.

Columbus didn’t win a playoff series until they also shocked the hockey world and swept the 2018-19 Presidents’ Trophy winning Tampa Bay Lightning.

Minnesota retired No. 1 for their fans before they even had their first puck drop.

Columbus didn’t resort to that, but probably should do something for their fans to make up for the many years of suffering on the outside looking in and/or playoff losses before making it out of the First Round.

Minnesota hasn’t made it back to the Second Round since 2015.

Columbus has at least made it to the Second Round since the Wild last made it.

The Vegas Golden Knights came into existence in 2017. They made it to the Stanley Cup Final in 2018, which was their inaugural season (2017-18).

Retire Nash’s number in 2020-21.

Categories
NHL Nick's Net Numbers Game

Look To The Rafters: Colorado Avalanche (Part II)

In the early days of DTFR, we made an educated guess as to who each team might honor in the future regarding retired jersey numbers. Since then, the Vegas Golden Knights came into existence and more than a few jersey numbers went out of circulation across the league. 

It’s time for an update and a look at who the Colorado Avalanche might honor by hanging their name and number from the rafters of Pepsi Center someday.

Colorado Avalanche Current Retired Numbers

19 Joe Sakic

21 Peter Forsberg

23 Milan Hejduk

33 Patrick Roy

52 Adam Foote

77 Ray Bourque

Did Anything Change In The Last Five Years?

Yes! Milan Hejduk’s No. 23 was rightfully retired on Jan. 6, 2018. He had 375 goals and 430 assists (805 points) in 1,020 career NHL games (all with the Avalanche), won the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy in 2002-03 with 50 goals and won a Cup with Colorado in 2001. Much like Colorado’s first line these days, you can’t forget the forward trio that preceded them in an Avalanche sweater of Sakic, Forsberg and Hejduk. 

Possible Numbers to Retire Someday

6 Erik Johnson

Johnson’s been around in Denver for parts of ten seasons and counting these days after being traded to the Avalanche from the St. Louis Blues during the 2010-11 season. He was drafted by St. Louis 1st overall in the 2006 NHL Draft, but made his league debut with the Blues in the 2007-08 season to the tune of five goals and 28 assists (33 points) in 69 games. 

In his 2009-10 sophomore campaign, Johnson’s totals increased to 10-29–39 in 79 games before splitting the 2010-11 season with St. Louis and Colorado and amassing eight goals and 21 assists (29 points) in 77 games with the two teams.

He didn’t shake the Earth when he broke into the league, but he’s managed to have the staying power and a dressing room presence for the Avs over the years.

Johnson has put up 60 goals and 152 assists (212 points) in 573 games for Colorado– or roughingly .370 points per game as an Av.

Meanwhile, former captain and current retired jersey number recipient in Avalanche franchise history, Adam Foote, had 259 points in 967 games for the Québec Nordiques/Avalanche franchise. That’s .268 points per game in Foote’s time with Québec/Colorado.

If Foote can have his number retired for almost reaching 1,000 games with the team, then Johnson can surely have the same honor for producing more in almost half the time– except by the time he hangs up the skates, he’ll likely play in almost 1,000 games for Colorado and have even more points by then, so yeah, the logic is still sound here.

You don’t always have to be a superstar in the league to be honored by a team for putting in the work and dedication to an organization.

29 Nathan MacKinnon

The 1st overall pick of the 2013 NHL Draft, MacKinnon won the Calder Memorial Trophy as the league’s rookie of the year in 2013-14, with 24 goals and 39 assists (63 points) in 82 games with the Avalanche.

The following season, MacKinnon’s production dropped to 14 goals and 24 assists (38 points) in 64 games in 2014-15. He then had back-to-back seasons of at least 50 points in 2015-16 and 2016-17 as the Avs floundered through the beginning of the second half of the 2010s.

Just as most experts began to rule out MacKinnon’s ability to be a franchise changing impact player, Colorado General Manager, Joe Sakic, helped create the foundation for a better roster for years to come and MacKinnon broke out of his shell with 39 goals and 58 assists (97 points) in 74 games in 2017-18.

Last season, MacKinnon almost reached the century mark with 99 points in 82 games, while setting a career-high in goals (41) and tying his career-high in assists (58).

This season, he had 35 goals and 58 assists (93 points) in 69 games and was on pace for about 111 points had the regular season not come to an abrupt end due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

With 495 points in 525 career games so far, MacKinnon is destined to be an Avalanche player for life and rise in all-time franchise glory. As it is, he currently sits 7th in the most points in Nordiques/Avalanche franchise history, with Anton Stastny sitting ahead of him in 6th by 141 points.

92 Gabriel Landeskog

Landeskog was drafted by Colorado 2nd overall in 2011, and had 22 goals and 30 assists (52 points) in 82 games in his rookie season (2011-12). Despite 9-8–17 totals in 36 games in his sophomore season– don’t let the numbers fool you, that was only a result of the lockout shortened 2012-13 season– the 2011-12 Calder Memorial Trophy winner has long been an underrated mark of consistency even as players like MacKinnon came to the team and emerged as one of the game’s superstars.

The following year, Landeskog scored 26 goals and notched 39 assists for 65 points in 81 games under head coach, Patrick Roy, en route to Colorado’s 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs appearance that collapsed in seven games to the Minnesota Wild in the 2014 First Round.

He followed suit with back-to-back 50-point seasons in 2014-15 and 2015-16, then dropped to 33 points (18 goals, 15 assists) in 72 games in 2016-17– a season that, until the 2019-20 Detroit Red Wings happened, was the worst performance by a team in the salary cap era.

In 2017-18, Landeskog had 62 points. Last season he set career-highs in goals (34), assists (41) and points (75) in 73 games played.

This season, he had 21 goals and 23 assists (44 points) through 54 games until the ongoing pandemic put an early end to the regular season. He was on pace for about 67 points despite being injured for part of the 2019-20 season.

The current captain of the Avalanche, Landeskog fits Colorado’s image well as the quintessential power forward in franchise history. He has 198 goals and 262 assists (460 points) in 633 career NHL games thus far and, like MacKinnon, will probably never play anywhere else in the league before he retires.

It’s safe to assume both Nos. 29 and 92 are not only the inverse of each other, but will be going to the rafters of Pepsi Center together.

96 Mikko Rantanen

Rantanen was drafted by the Avs 10th overall in 2015, then made a brief NHL debut in nine games in the ensuing 2015-16 season. He was a minus-seven and recorded no points in that span.

Then came the 2016-17 season, in which Rantanen was the only bright spot for an otherwise horrendous season for the club. In his rookie season (first full season, anyway), Rantanen had 20 goals and 18 assists (38 points) in 75 games, despite having a career-low, minus-25 rating.

His sophomore campaign only got better with 29 goals and 55 assists (84 points) in 81 games in 2017-18, followed by career-highs in goals (31), assists (56) and points (87) in 74 games last season while battling injury.

This year, despite the COVID-19 pandemic cutting the regular season short, Rantanen’s regular season action was almost completely derailed by long term injuries. Nevertheless, he managed to put up 19-22–41 totals in 42 games and was on pace for 80 points had he managed to avoid injury.

Regardless, Rantanen’s quickly amassed 250 points (99 goals, 151 assists) in 281 career NHL games thus far and is sure to be a member of the Avalanche for a long time– if not his entire career– as he gets healthy and things continue to be on the up and up for one of the most dominant teams in the Western Conference these days.

Final Thoughts

It might just be that since the Avalanche have made the Stanley Cup Playoffs for three consecutive seasons after only making the postseason twice in a span of nine seasons from 2008-09 through 2016-17, but it feels like Colorado’s in a renaissance these days and that’s bad news for the rest of the league.

Yes, especially more so when you consider the team friendly contracts that Sakic has been able to convince his players to sign. Even in the salary cap age, the Avs have found a way to compile a roster full of talent and depth. Now if only they could convince Roy to come out of retirement and play goaltender (I’m sure he’d still be fine and settle, once and for all, the Patrick Roy vs. Martin Brodeur “Best Goaltender of All Time” argument).

Anyway, there’s at least two or three players that’ll see their legacy take permanent residency in the rafters of Pepsi Center some day, but that’s not even counting what Cale Makar could be capable of in his career.

Makar is one of this year’s finalists for the Calder Memorial Trophy as the league’s rookie of the year and could make a claim to having his No. 8 retired one day by the Avs.

Likewise, since the Avs retired Foote’s No. 52 and acknowledged Hejduk’s contributions to the team by retiring his No. 23 in 2018, there’s a chance someone with 167 goals and 321 assists (488 points) in 598 games with Colorado could also see his number rise to the rafters– but which one would Alex Tanguay rather see hanging from the ceiling, No. 18 or No. 40?

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NHL Nick's Net Numbers Game

Look To The Rafters: Chicago Blackhawks (Part II)

In the early days of DTFR, we made an educated guess as to who each team might honor in the future regarding retired jersey numbers. Since then, the Vegas Golden Knights came into existence and more than a few jersey numbers went out of circulation across the league. 

It’s time for an update and a look at who the Chicago Blackhawks might honor by hanging their name and number from the rafters at United Center someday.

Chicago Blackhawks Current Retired Numbers

1 Glenn Hall

3 Keith Magnuson/Pierre Pilote

9 Bobby Hull

18 Denis Savard

21 Stan Mikita

35 Tony Esposito

Did Anything Change In The Last Five Years?

No! As a matter of fact, the Blackhawks haven’t retired any numbers since Keith Magnuson and Pierre Pilote’s No. 3 on Nov. 12, 2008, but they’ll soon have a plethora of jersey retirement ceremonies because winning three Cups in five seasons will do that.

Possible Numbers to Retire Someday

2 Duncan Keith

There’s a trend among all the possible numbers to retire in the near future in Chicago– they all won at least two Stanley Cup rings with the Blackhawks. You’re probably quite familiar with them if you’ve been watching the NHL in the last decade.

Keith broke into the league in the 2005-06 season with the Blackhawks (who drafted him in the second round, 54th overall, in 2002) and has spent his entire career with Chicago across 15 seasons so far.

In that span, Keith has won three Cups (2010, 2013 and 2015) and has amassed 101 goals and 509 assists in 1,138 career regular season games played and ranks 10th all-time in points in franchise history with 610.

His team friendly $5.538 million cap hit expires after the 2022-23 season, when the defender will be approaching 40-years-old and may or may not even still be playing by then. Oh and he won the James Norris Trophy as the league’s best defender in 2009-10 and 2013-14. Keith was also named the Conn Smythe Trophy winner after the 2015 Stanley Cup Final.

Anyway, for most of these Blackhawks players it should be pretty self-explanatory.

7 Brent Seabrook

Seabrook was originally selected in the first round by Chicago (14th overall) in 2003. He broke into the league with the Blackhawks in the 2005-06 season and has spent all 15 seasons of his NHL career thus far with Chicago.

He’s also a three-time Stanley Cup champion, having been a member of Chicago’s 2010, 2013 and 2015 rosters. In 1,114 career NHL games, Seabrook’s amassed 103-361–464 totals from the blue line. Along with Keith, he’s been a long-standing pillar on Chicago’s defense and deserves acknowledgment in his own right for the longevity of his tenure that somehow made it as far as it did– and as durable– until he had season ending surgery on his right shoulder on Dec. 27, 2019.

There’s no doubt the Blackhawks will honor both workhorses on their defense that single handedly defined Chicago’s championship style from their own zone out.

10 Patrick Sharp

Compared to the rest of this list, it might be a harder time to argue for Chicago to send Sharp’s No. 10 up to the rafters of United Center, but if you want to make the argument, first there’s the number of years and dedication spent with the team and city (11 seasons across two stints) and second, there’s the fact that Sharp had 532 points in 749 games in a Blackhawks sweater (or .710 points per game while with Chicago).

He spent parts of three seasons with the Philadelphia Flyers and two seasons with the Dallas Stars, which contributed to his 287-333–620 totals in 939 career NHL games, which– if you can’t do the math– means that Sharp had 88 points outside of Chicago in 129 games (.682 points per game outside Chicago), which means (“eye test” aside) that he spent his prime with the Blackhawks and was able to give his all to the team that he won three Cups with in 2010, 2013 and 2015.

So… yeah… maybe don’t forget about Sharp in the “potential numbers to retire” conversation.

19 Jonathan Toews

A year before the Blackhawks drafted Patrick Kane, they selected their centerpiece for the future in Toews with the 3rd overall pick in the 2006 NHL Draft. He made his league debut with Chicago in the 2007-08 season and produced 54 points in his rookie year. Two seasons later, he raised the Stanley Cup above his head as the first Blackhawks player to do so since 1961, after defeating the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2010 Stanley Cup Final.

Toews was named the 2010 Conn Smythe Trophy winner and has won an award in each of his Stanley Cup winning seasons– winning the Cup in 2010, 2013 and 2015 with the Blackhawks, while taking home the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2010, the Frank J. Selke Trophy in 2013 and the Mark Messier Leadership Award in 2015.

He’s fast approaching 1,000 career NHL games– all with Chicago– as he’s already appeared in 943 contests for the Blackhawks since his rookie season, amassing 345-470–815 totals.

There’s no doubt Toews will see his No. 19 raised to the rafters when he hangs up his skates.

50 Corey Crawford

Crawford is the reason why the qualifier “at least two Cup rings with the Blackhawks” had to be used for this list because– spoiler alert– he was not Chicago’s starting goaltender until the 2010-11 season, and thus, only won the Cup in 2013 and 2015.

Antti Niemi led the Blackhawks to their first Cup in 49 years, but Crawford doubled Niemi’s Cup wins in Chicago and led many to forget about the goaltender that ended the Cup drought for the Blackhawks, then went to arbitration, but couldn’t reach a deal to keep him as the home goaltender at United Center and finally signed a deal with the San Jose Sharks before the start of the 2010-11 season.

Meanwhile, Crawford’s amassed 260 wins in 488 games played for Chicago– yielding a 2.45 career goals against average and a career .918 save percentage, as well as 26 shutouts in that span.

He’s been around for parts of 13 seasons with the Blackhawks and is the modern Tony Esposito for the franchise, so it’s only fitting that Crawford’s No. 50 becomes the next jersey number belonging to a goaltender to be raised to the rafters in Chicago.

81 Marian Hossa

Three Cups with Chicago and he gets in the Hockey Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility? Might as well complete the journey with retiring No. 81 for the Blackhawks this upcoming season– whenever it happens (if it happens) in 2020-21.

After missing out on the Cup in 2008 with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Hossa signed a one-year deal with the defending Stanley Cup champion Detroit Red Wings for the 2008-09 season. Detroit met up with the Penguins in a rematch of the 2008 Stanley Cup Final, but in the 2009 edition of the Stanley Cup Final. Once again, however, Hossa drew the short end of the stick and was defeated by his former teammates on his quest for his first Cup.

In the summer of 2009, Hossa signed a mega-deal worth $5.275 million per season over the course of 12 seasons through next season. After a debilitating skin allergy to his hockey equipment cut his career short, Hossa’s contract currently sits on the books of the Arizona Coyotes, but that’s besides the point.

In his first season with the Blackhawk’s, Hossa won it all. The long, torturous, journey to three consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances paid off with Chicago’s defeat of the Flyers in 2010.

Then Hossa won two more Cups in 2013 and 2015 with the Blackhawks and amassed 186-229–415 totals in 534 games with Chicago from 2009-17.

Anyway, he scored a bunch of clutch goals for the Blackhawks, so I’m sure that alone will be good enough, right?

Since he’s still under contract with a team for 2020-21, does this mean the Blackhawks will have to wait until the 2021-22 season to retire his number– or are they going to have to wait until then anyway due to the COVID-19 pandemic?

88 Patrick Kane

The 1st overall pick in the 2007 Draft, Kane was selected by the Blackhawks as the planned counterpart for Toews in the overnight redefinition of a basement dwelling franchise to Stanley Cup contending club from season-to-season for a decade.

In 973 regular season games with Chicago, Kane has 389 goals and 633 assists (1,022 points), as well as lots of hardware.

For starters, he’s won three Stanley Cups with the club in 2010, 2013 and 2015. Oddly enough, his best season didn’t even come until after he won three Cups in five seasons with the Blackhawks. In 2015-16, Kane took home the Art Ross Trophy with 106 points, and won the Hart Memorial Trophy, as well as the Ted Lindsay Award that season as the league’s regular season MVP both as determined by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association (PHWA) for the Hart and by the rest of the league’s players for the Lindsay.

Oh and he won the Calder Memorial Trophy in his rookie season (2007-08) and picked up a Conn Smythe Trophy as the MVP of the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

So there’s that.

Oh plus he scored the goal that ended Chicago’s 49-year Cup drought.

So there’s that too.

Final Thoughts

Now is the perfect time to get rid of the biggest disgrace in franchise history. Unretire No. 9.

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NHL Nick's Net Numbers Game

Look To The Rafters: Carolina Hurricanes (Part II)

In the early days of DTFR, we made an educated guess as to who each team might honor in the future regarding retired jersey numbers. Since then, the Vegas Golden Knights came into existence and more than a few jersey numbers went out of circulation across the league. 

It’s time for an update and a look at who the Carolina Hurricanes might honor by hanging their name and number from the rafters of PNC Arena someday.

Carolina Hurricanes Current Retired Numbers

2 Glen Wesley

10 Ron Francis

17 Rod Brind’Amour

Did Anything Change In The Last Five Years?

No! But that could change as soon as current Minnesota Wild forward, Eric Staal, eventually decides he’s had enough and calls it a career. Not just could, it should and (probably) will.

Possible Numbers to Retire Someday

9 Gordie Howe

Let’s keep this one short and sweet– it’s “Mr. Hockey”. Howe spent his final year in the NHL (1979-80) with the Hartford Whalers and subsequently had his number retired by both the Detroit Red Wings and the Whalers, but when Hartford relocated to North Carolina, the Hurricanes chose not to honor any of the retired numbers from their Whalers days.

As such, Howe’s No. 9 is technically available, but it has never been worn in Carolina. Why not go all out sometime on Whalers Night and re-retire Howe’s No. 9 out of a formality?

12 Eric Staal

From the 2003-04 season through part of the 2015-16 season, Staal was a fixture on the Hurricanes roster. In 909 games with Carolina, he scored 322 goals and had 453 assists (775 points), which ranks 2nd on the all-time scorers list in franchise history (behind only Ron Francis, of course, who had 1,175 points as a Hartford Whaler/Carolina Hurricane).

Staal had a massive 100-point season in his sophomore campaign in 2005-06, en route to Carolina’s Stanley Cup championship over the Edmonton Oilers in seven games. He notched career-highs in goals (45), assists (55) and points (100) that season in all 82 games played and only had one season below 70 points– his rookie season, in which Staal had 11-20–31 totals in 81 games in 2003-04– until an injury in 2013 disrupted his prolific playing ability.

As time moved on, it became more clear that Staal would need a change of scenery and the Hurricanes would be wise to cash in on what they could still get for him at a high rather than let him walk away for nothing. 

After three consecutive seasons of at least 50 points from 2012-13 through 2014-15, Staal entered the 2015-16 season with Carolina, but finished the season with the New York Rangers.

On Feb. 28, 2016, the Hurricanes dealt Staal to the Rangers for Aleksi Saarela, New York’s 2016 2nd round pick and New York’s 2017 2nd round pick.

Staal had ten goals and 23 assists (33 points) in 63 games for Carolina at the time of the trade that season. He had three goals and three assists in 20 games for the Rangers down the stretch.

The Hurricanes won the trade, which had seen the departure of their first true “homegrown” star, having drafted Staal 2nd overall in 2003.

And there’s still connections to the Staal trade with the Rangers on the roster to this day.

Saarela was later packaged with Calvin de Haan on June 24, 2019, in a trade with the Chicago Blackhawks for Gustav Forsling and Anton Forsberg. You might recognize Forsberg as one of Carolina’s many goaltenders this year after David Ayres made his NHL debut back in February.

The 2016 2nd round pick (50th overall) was packaged with a 2017 3rd round pick (originally belonging to Chicago) in a trade with the Blackhawks before the de Haan deal on June 15, 2016, in which the Hurricanes received Teuvo Teravainen and Bryan Bickell.

Finally, the 2017 2nd round pick (52nd overall) was used by Carolina to draft a right-shot defender from the University of Michigan named Luke Martin.

Staal played more than one vital role in the ever changing landscape of the Hurricanes from Cup winner to modern day playoff contender on the upswing after making an appearance in the 2019 Eastern Conference Final (albeit losing in four games to the Boston Bruins).

20 Sebastian Aho

Entering the 2015-16 season, Carolina kicked things off by drafting Aho in the second round (35th overall) in 2015. Little did anyone know, but it was poetic selection as Staal later was traded that season and Aho made his NHL debut the following season– proving to perhaps be the heir to Staal’s legacy as the current face of the franchise.

In his rookie season of 2016-17, Aho had 24 goals and 25 assists (49 points) in all 82 games. He followed that up with a sophomore campaign of 29-36–65 totals in 78 games in 2017-18, then set a career-high in assists (53) and points (83) in 82 games last season.

Up until the shortened regular season due to the COVID-19 pandemic this season, Aho had a new career-high in goals (38) and 66 points in 68 games played. He was on pace for another 80-point season.

It’s truly a shame we didn’t get to see what might have panned out– and that’s ignoring the cutthroat Eastern Conference playoff berth race.

At the very least, Aho is no flash in the pan. He’s the real deal in terms of skill, consistency and the true direction of where the franchise is going.

Only four seasons into his NHL career, it looks like he’s destined to be honored for eternity in Hurricanes lore one day with a jersey retirement night.

37 Andrei Svechnikov

Svechnikov just wrapped up a sophomore season that was cut short due to the pandemic, but improved on his 20-17–37 totals in all 82 games in his rookie season last season.

This year, Svechnikov had 24 goals and 37 assists (61 points) as well as two lacrosse wraparound goals henceforth referred to as “The Svech”.

Gifted, young, crafty Russian wingers are sometimes hard to predict, but Svechnikov appears to be the real deal– especially since he was the 2nd overall pick in 2018.

Sure, the Hurricanes have had a young Russian first round product before in Alexander Semin, but whereas Semin was drafted by the Washington Capitals 13th overall in 2002, Svechnikov was drafted at the same overall position as Pittsburgh Penguins center, Evgeni Malkin. Malkin was a 2004 Draft product and look how he turned out for Carolina’s division rival.

It might be early to say that Svechnikov’s No. 37 will be hanging from the rafters of PNC Arena one day, but it’s not too late to admit that you really liked “The Svech” and you won’t moan about “the disrespect for goaltenders and the game that it has caused”.

What’s not to love?

Final Thoughts

Carolina has their best chance in franchise history at winning a Cup and remaining an annual Cup contender in the process. The first (and only) time they won in 2006, the Hurricanes utilized assets picked up via trades and otherwise to push them over the edge and into eternal glory as names like “Staal”, “Williams”, “Cole”, “Brind’Amour” and others were etched onto Lord Stanley’s chalice.

But this time around, something’s different.

This time, the Canes have been built primarily from within and over the years via the draft. While Aho has a great chance at being a cornerstone for the franchise, players like Brett Pesce, Jaccob Slavin and Teravainen have been around for at least a few years and could cement their names in franchise lore by winning a Cup in Raleigh.

If they’re able to win multiple Cups in Raleigh, then they just might move themselves up into consideration for having their numbers hanging from the rafters of PNC Arena. 

The hard part is, however, that the accolades of Slavin and Pesce, for example, may otherwise go unnoticed by the rest of the league. Real Caniacs will know the impact they’ve had on the blue line for the franchise, but how much of the impact will be measured in twine on a pulley that brings their last name and number to the ceiling forever?

Finally, guys like Martin Necas, well, he just had his rookie season, so it seems a bit premature to run around just yet and declare him a player destined to have his No. 88 retired by the Hurricanes (but he just might someday, so you heard it here first if it happens and don’t quote me unless I’m right).

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NHL Nick's Net Numbers Game

Look To The Rafters: Calgary Flames (Part II)

In the early days of DTFR, we made an educated guess as to who each team might honor in the future regarding retired jersey numbers. Since then, the Vegas Golden Knights came into existence and more than a few jersey numbers went out of circulation across the league. 

It’s time for an update and a look at who the Calgary Flames might honor by hanging their name and number from the rafters of Scotiabank Saddledome (but in actuality the new Calgary arena that’s being built) someday.

Calgary Flames Current Retired Numbers

9 Lanny McDonald

12 Jarome Iginla

30 Mike Vernon

“Forever a Flame”

2 Al MacInnis

25 Joe Nieuwendyk

Did Anything Change In The Last Five Years?

Yes! Jarome Iginla had his No. 12 retired on March 2, 2019, becoming just the third retired jersey number in Flames franchise history. Those “Forever a Flame” members are just honored players for their contributions to Calgary while playing for the Flames, but their jersey numbers remain in circulation.

Possible Numbers to Retire Someday

13 Johnny Gaudreau

Gaudreau put up 99 points in 82 games in a breakout season last season after reaching at least 60 points in his first four full NHL seasons from 2014-15 through 2017-18. Technically that means he’s had at least 60 points in his first five full seasons and, despite finishing the pandemic shortened 2019-20 regular season with 58 points in 70 games played, Gaudreau was on pace for about 68 points this season.

While he officially missed out on yet another 60-point season, Gaudreau is a consistent player for the Flames. Sure, 58 points is a bit of a steep drop off from 99 points, but Calgary went through a coaching change this season and unrelated turmoil in trying to find what worked so well last season, but just wasn’t apparent in their game under Geoff Ward in 2019-20.

What’s perhaps more telling about the Flames from last season to this season is that Gaudreau went from a healthy plus-18 rating in 2018-19, to a minus-10 rating in 2019-20. That’s… not ideal.

As long as he bounces back to his consistent form or even if all he does is put up 50-points per season in Calgary, then Gaudreau has a good chance of seeing his number in the rafters of the Flames’ new arena that’s currently on track to replace Scotiabank Saddledome.

The question is, will he be around long enough to qualify for it though?

Gaudreau has already played in parts of seven NHL seasons so far and, while that’s certainly enough for some teams, it seems the Flames are set on limiting retired jersey numbers for players that average about 12 seasons in a Calgary sweater.

In five years, who knows what could happen, but hopefully for fans of Gaudreau in Calgary, it’ll mean that he’s getting through his 12th season and then some as a Flame.

With 151 goals and 294 assists (445 points) in 464 career games (all with the Flames) so far, Gaudreau’s quickly approaching that “at least 600” benchmark for a player to not just have their number honored in Calgary, but rather set aside as a whole and raised to the rafters– never to be worn again.

14 Theoren Fleury

In order to be considered “royalty” in Calgary franchise history, it seems that a player must have had at least 600 points in a Flames sweater. Both Al MacInnis and Joe Nieuwendyk had over 600 points in their time with the Flames (MacInnis had 822 points in 13 seasons with Calgary, while Nieuwendyk had 616 points with the Flames in nine seasons).

Luckily for Fleury, he’s above the “Forever a Flame” club with 830 career points in Calgary from the 1988-89 season through part of the 1998-99 season.

Retiring Fleury’s No. 14 would rightfully honor a story of redemption and continued success on the path of forgiveness for all involved similar to how one could argue for the Boston Bruins to honor Derek Sanderson in some manner.

Fleury won the Cup with the Flames in 1989, and had two seasons with at least 100 points in Calgary– including one season with a career-high 51 goals in 1990-91.

A consistent scorer in his time as a Flame, one word best describes Fleury’s stats in Calgary– dominant.

After 15 NHL seasons from 1988-89 through 2002-03, Fleury amassed 455-633–1,088 totals in 1,084 games, then stepped away from the NHL to deal with substance abuse and released an autobiography, titled Playing With Fire, in 2009.

23 Sean Monahan

Like Gaudreau, Monahan defines an era for Calgary hockey– the current era of the Flames franchise. He had a respectable 34 points in 75 games in his rookie season in 2013-14, then had 60 or more points in three out of four seasons from 2014-15 through 2017-18.

Since then, Monahan had career-highs in goals with 34 and assists with 48 last season for a career-high 82 points in 78 games.

This season, he had 22 goals and 26 assists (48 points) in 70 games and was on pace for 56 points. Not bad, but definitely back to his usual production rates.

That said, like Gaudreau, Monahan has been a part of the Flames in six full seasons and has amassed 194 goals and 217 assists (411 points) in that span. With 541 NHL games under his belt– all with Calgary, Monahan could leverage more points and another half-dozen seasons as a Flame as more than enough to earn a banner alongside Lanny McDonald, Jarome Iginla and Mike Vernon.

34 Miikka Kiprusoff 

Calgary retired Vernon’s No. 30 despite Vernon playing in the tumultuous 1980s NHL. Seriously.

Vernon had 262 wins in a Flames sweater in 527 games played over 13 seasons in Calgary from the 1982-83 season through 1993-94. He had a 3.27 goals against average and an .883 save percentage in that span, as well as 13 shutouts, but he went on to win the Cup in 1989, which has been Calgary’s only Stanley Cup ring so far, so there’s that.

Unlike Kiprusoff, Vernon did not win the Vezina Trophy, nor did he win the William M. Jennings Trophy (well, not with the Flames, at least– Vernon won it in 1995-96 as a member of the Detroit Red Wings).

Kiprusoff, on the other hand, spent nine seasons with the Flames from 2003-04 through 2012-13 and amassed 305 wins in 576 games played (386 starts). In his Calgary playing days, Kiprusoff had a 2.46 GAA, a .913 SV% and 41 shutouts. He also took home the Vezina Trophy and William M. Jennings Trophy in the 2005-06 season.

Sure, Vernon won a Cup and made two appearances in the Final with the Flames in 1986 and 1989, but even though Kiprusoff didn’t win a Cup, he at least reached the Final with Calgary in 2004– losing in seven games to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Anyway, the point is simple, if Vernon is your standard for retiring a goalie’s jersey number in Calgary, then at least 300 wins and any hardware becomes the benchmark for future considerations, hence Kirpusoff’s appearance on this list.

Final Thoughts

The Flames don’t seem to have any striking “once in a generation” talent since Iginla was traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2013, but they do have the kind of committed and consistent players in Gaudreau and Monahan to consider honoring down the line as long as their careers live to see it.

If Calgary makes any bold decisions to trade one or both of them, then it’s not likely that either will see anything more than some “Forever a Flame” recognition.

As a whole, the Flames don’t have many strong candidates in their history that scream “retire this number or else”. 

Iginla is the only player in franchise history with more than 1,000 points with the team and the next closest guy is the most deserving of having his number retired, but carried off ice repercussions that might be holding Calgary back from sending Fleury’s No. 14 to the rafters without proper discussion surrounding hockey culture as a whole and how it failed a player and led to long-lasting effects on his life and those around him.