Author: Connor Keith

Categories
Daily Matchup

November 7 – Day 32 – Let’s watch THAT rivalry

It may have taken overtime, but the Detroit Red Wings improved their record to 7-5-1 after beating the Toronto Maple Leafs 2-1.

Assisted by Dylan Larkin and Justin Abdelkader, Henrik Zetterberg scored the Wings‘ lone regulation goal at the 16:21 mark of the first period from the blue line, the lone goal through both intermissions.

Detroit fans were apparently starting to think the ‘S-word’ too early, as Tyler Bozak and Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau assisted Dion Phaneuf to score on Petr Mrazek with only 1:02 remaining to tie the game.

Jakub Kindl, assisted by Teemu Pulkkinen and Tomas Tatar, fired the game winner over James Reimer’s glove shoulder at 2:17 mark of overtime to seal the victory for the Wings.

Mrazek’s record improves to 4-3-0 after saving 32 of 33 (97%), while Reimer’s record falls to 2-2-2 after saving 22 of 24 (91.7%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 18-8-5, still favoring the home squad by 13 points over the roadies.

It’s another busy Saturday (aren’t they all, though?) in the best hockey league in the world, and the action gets an early start at 1 p.m. eastern when Vancouver visits Buffalo (SN).  After that game finishes, our attention turns to the Staples Center, where Los Angeles hosts Florida at 4 p.m. eastern.  Following the completion of that game, the usual starting time of 7 p.m. eastern features four matchups (Boston at Montréal [NHL Network/TVAS/SN], Toronto at Washington [CBC], Ottawa at Carolina [SN1/TVAS2] and Philadelphia at Winnipeg).  8 p.m. eastern brings with it two more opening puck drops (St. Louis at Nashville and Tampa Bay at Minnesota), followed an hour later by the New York Rangers at Arizona.  10 p.m. witnesses the beginning of the Pittsburgh at Calgary game (CBC/SN), followed half an hour later by the evening’s nightcap: Anaheim at San Jose.

Three of tonight’s games are between divisional rivals (Bruins–Canadiens, Blues–Predators and Ducks–Sharks), and two are being contested by two teams currently qualifying for the playoffs (Blues–Predators and Lightning–Wild).

I’m torn between the Blues–Predators and Bruins–Canadiens, but given the heated, historical rivalry between the second pair, that has to be where we direct our attention tonight.

UnknownUnknown

 

 

 

 

This is Boston‘s third appearance in the Game of the Day series, where they currently own a 0-1-1 record.  Their opponent, the Habs, have been featured four times before tonight and have won all of their appearances.

The 6-5-1 Boston Bruins enter tonight’s game on a two-game losing skid, with their most recent occurring Thursday in Washington, where they fell 4-1.  It was their first result on the road that wasn’t a victory, as they opened the season winning five straight games away from the TD Garden.  They currently sit in fifth place in the Atlantic Division and 10th in the Eastern Conference.

It has been the B‘s offense that has been paying dividends this season, as they’ve had to cover up mistakes on the other end of the ice.  Although they’ve only notched 365 shots so far this season (led by Patrice Bergeron’s 37), they’ve scored 43 goals (with David Krejci accounting for seven) – giving them a cool 11.8% shooting percentage.  Especially potent has been the power play, as the man-advantage has accounted for 14, or 32.6%, of those goals (Bergeron has four to his credit).  Although the Habs are pretty good at killing penalties, they may want to avoid that as much as possible tonight (then again, if we know anything about this rivalry, the chances of that happening are slim to none).

As stated before, the offense has needed to be that good to make up for the sub-par play on the other end.  Kevan Miller has tried to do the best he can blocking shots (he leads the team with 21), but 326 have still reached Tuukka Rask (3-5-1, 87.9%) and co., of which only 88.7% have been saved.  That results is quite a few goals scored against Boston, 40 to be exact, and that rate gets much lower when down a man.  On 44 power play attempts for the opposition, the Bruins have been scored on 13 times, meaning they’ve only stopped 70.45%.

The 12-2-1 Montréal Canadiens enter tonight’s game atop the NHL by three points.  Their most recent game was Thursday when they beat the Islanders 4-1.  The Canadiens are a strong team on both ends of the ice and have firmly established themselves as early favorites after only a month of play.

Their offense has put 458 shots on net (led by Max Pacioretty’s 50), with 12% of those attempts ending up behind the opposing goaltender.  Yes, your math is correct: that’s 55 tallies (of which Dale Weise owns eight), a total that exceeds the league average by 20 scores.  Although not as strong as Boston‘s, Montréal‘s power play has been good in their own right as the Habs have scored on 13 of 52 (25%) attempts, led by Brendan Gallagher’s four goals.  Paired with the Bruins‘ penalty kill, the Canadiens‘ power play could be extremely potent tonight.

On the other end of the ice, the Canadiens have given up 2.25 goals per game (27 total).  Of the shots Andrei Markov doesn’t stop (he has 29 blocks so far this season), Carey Price (7-2-0, 93.6%) and co. have saved 93.8% of the 436 shots they’ve faced this season, allowing only 27 goals.  Even when facing a power play, they’ve played stellar, as they’ve only given up five goals on 49 attempts (89.8%).  This stat will be put to the test as they are facing the Bruins‘ fantastic power play.

In their first of five meetings, the Habs beat Boston at the TD Garden 4-2, with Lars Eller scoring twice in that game.  Last season, Montréal swept Boston in the season series 4-0-0, adding to their all-time record of 461-342-103 over the Bruins.

Some players to watch in tonight’s game include Boston‘s Krejci (15 points [tied for sixth in the league] and seven goals [tied for eighth in the league]) and Montréal‘s Mike Condon (1.5 GAA [leads the league] and .941 save percentage [second in the league]), Gallagher (+9 [tied for fourth in the league]), Markov (12 assists [tied for second in the league] and +9 [tied for fourth in the league]), Pacioretty (+9 [tied for fourth in the league] and seven goals [tied for eighth in the league]), Tomas Plekanec (+9 [tied for fourth in the league] and 14 points [tied for ninth in the league]), P.K. Subban (12 assists [tied for second in the league] and +11 [tied for second in the league]) & Weise (eight goals [tied for fourth in the league]).

Montréal is favored at -140 in tonight’s game, but I’m not convinced that it will be that easy, especially if the Bruins can get under the Habs‘ skin and earn more than their fair-share of penalties while also avoiding going a man-down themselves.

Categories
Daily Matchup

November 6 – Day 31 – Hooray, it’s a divisional rivalry…

The Minnesota Wild tried valiantly to level score with a two-man advantage, but were unable to put their third tally past First Star of the Game Pekka Rinne and fell 3-2 to the Nashville Predators.

The Predators waited 36:06 before opening the evening’s scoring.  Mike Fisher earned the honors after taking an assist from Shea Weber and firing a snap shot past Dubnyk.  That score lit a fire under the Wild though, as Second Star Marco Scandella scored a power play goal, assisted by Ryan Suter and Mikko Koivu, only 1:30 later to level the score, which held into the second intermission.

It may have taken over half an hour for Nashville to score their first goal, but it only took 12 seconds into the third period to score their second, notched by Third Star Roman Josi.  Minnesota leveled the score again 6:39 later when Matt Dumba fired a power play slapshot after being assisted by Jared Spurgeon and Jason Zucker.  The final goal of the evening was Cody Hodgson’s first of the season, scored at the 14:39 mark.

Minnesota‘s Devan Dubnyk earned his third loss of the season (7-3-1 overall) after saving 21 of 24 (87.5%) while Nashville‘s Pekka Rinne saved 27 of 29 (93.1%) to improve his record to 7-1-2.

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 18-8-4, favoring the home squad by 14 points.  Minnesota‘s perfect record in the Game of the Day series falls to 3-1-0, while Nashville earned their first win in their first appearance.

Today’s schedule features six matchups, so it’s a slight break before Saturday.  Detroit at Toronto (TVAS), Chicago at New Jersey and Dallas at Carolina all begin the festivities at 7 p.m. eastern.  Beginning at 9 p.m. eastern are two more games (the New York Rangers at Colorado and Pittsburgh at Edmonton [SN]), followed an hour later by tonight’s nightcap: Columbus at Anaheim.

The Wings–Leafs game is the only divisional rivalry being played tonight, and there are no games between two teams currently qualifying for the playoffs.  Although this matchup has already been featured this season, we’ll watch Round Two of the Babcock Series.

Unknown-1Unknown-3

 

 

 

 

 

 

An Original Six game is always fun, right?

The 6-5-1 Detroit Red Wings currently sit in fifth place in the Atlantic Division and and ninth in the Eastern Conference, both due to losing a tiebreaker against the Boston Bruins.  They enter the game on a two-game winning streak, with their most recent victory coming against the Lightning, whom they beat 2-1 on Tuesday.

The season has not started the way the Wings would have liked, to the point that many (including us at DtFR) are beginning to wonder if the incredible steak of 24 straight Stanley Cup playoff appearances may be in jeopardy.

Beginning with the offense, we find a squad that has only put 306 shots on goal for 30 tallies (9.8%).  Since that shot percentage leads the league average by .7%, if might be argued that the Wings could find more offensive success if they found a better way to get pucks on goal (quite the Maddenism, I know), but I’m not convinced that would fix many problems in Motown.

The power play is close to being on par with the rest of the league, as they have the average eight goals to their credit, but have earned two more opportunities than most teams, putting their 19.05% below the league average by .95%.

If you had to pick an end of the ice the Wings have been better on, you’d have to lean towards the goaltending.  They’ve allowed only 31 goals so far this season on 386 shots (92.7% save rate).  Both Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek have three wins apiece, but they’ve had to work overtime as their leading shot blocker has been Luke Glendening (17), a CENTER.

Continuing with the average theme, Detroit‘s penalty kill is in the same boat.  They’ve given up eight goals, just like the average team, but they’ve had to defend against four more opportunities.  Again, a .71% advantage over the league average is not enough for me to believe that this team has what it takes to be a real threat this season.

Luckily for Detroit, average just might cut it tonight against the 2-8-2 Toronto Maple Leafs.  Neither the offense nor the defense has been turning many heads in Hogtown, as they sit in last place in both the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference.  They enter tonight’s game after losing to the Jets 4-2 on Wednesday.

Beginning with the offense, we find a team that has notched only 26 tallies on 362 shots (7.2%).  Worse than that has been the power play, as they’ve only accounted for five goals with a man-advantage.  To their credit, they’ve only been on the power play 35 times, but a 14.29% success rate does not bode well, regardless of Toronto‘s opponent.

On the other end of the ice, the Leafs have given up 40 goals so far this season, seven more than the league average.  One 363 shots faced, James Reimer and co.’s 90.4% save percentage trails the league average by one percent.  Luckily for the defense, Morgan Rielly (who deserves a raise based on this stat alone) leads the team with 20 blocks for his goaltenders, but it hasn’t been enough to keep pressure off the netminders.

Even worse has been the penalty kill.  Ten goals have been given up by the Leafs‘ special teams for a kill rate of 76.19%, yet another stat that trails the league average.

Babcock has been quoted as saying this was going to be a painful rebuild.  If I were Toronto, I’d be looking for some Advil, and if they’re nice, they should probably share some with any friends they have in Michigan, as neither team looks to have much optimism for this season at minimum.

Toronto is expected to lose with a +111 line, which is further supported by statistics and the Wings beating the Leafs 4-0 when they met almost a month ago at the Joe (you can read a quick-and-dirty recap of it here).  Expect the Wings to get out of Toronto with a win.

Categories
Daily Matchup

November 5 – Day 30 – Let’s keep it in the division

Last night’s divisional rivalry between the St. Louis Blues and the Chicago Blackhawks was absolutely wild, as the Notes came back from a three-goal deficit to win in overtime.

Within six and a half minutes, the Blackhawks had a 3-1 lead.  Marko Dano, assisted by Ryan Hartman, scored the opening goal for Chicago at the 2:08 mark, but Colton Parayko and Vladimir Tarasenko assisted Alexander Steen to a game-tying goal only 54 seconds later.  1:35 later, the Blackhawks again took a one-goal lead when Andrew Shaw fired his penalty shot past Brian Elliott, followed 1:58 later by Trevor Teravainen scoring his fourth of the season.

Three more goals were scored in the first, beginning with Robby Fabbri’s tally, assisted by David Backes, at the 15:12 mark.  Chicago was responsible for the final two scores, as Patrick Kane and Teravainen assisted Brent Seabrook to his fourth of the season at the 17:09 mark, followed 43 seconds later by Seabrook and Shaw assisting Kane to make the score 5-2, which held into the first intermission.

The second period was all Blues, as they scored three goals to tie the game.  They notched their first of the period at the 3:11 mark when Parayko and Jay Bouwmeester assisted Steen to his second of the night, setting the score at 5-3.  The Notes‘ fourth goal of the game didn’t come until the 17:12 mark, when Troy Brouwer and Scott Gomez assisted Bouwmeester to his first of the year, which was followed 2:14 later when Alex Pietrangelo and Fabbri assisted Backes to his third of the season to tie the game at five-all, which held into the second intermission.

Although there weren’t any goals in the third period, the Blackhawks certainly gave it their best effort, as they out-shot the Blues 14-7 in the final period.  Although it was a better showing than the second period for the Hawks, they still were not able to break through Jake Allen, and the game went to overtime.

It took only 3:54 for Pietrangelo to assist Tarasenko to the game-winner, giving the Blues the bonus point.

6-3-1 Corey Crawford earned his first overtime loss of the season after stopping only 23 of 29 (79.3%), while 5-3-0 Jake Allen earned the victory after stopping 27 of 28 (96.4%).  Brian Elliott was the Blues‘ starter, but was pulled twice (once as a blatant informal timeout, and again for an injury), and only played 17:03.  They were a bad 17 minutes though, as he saved only 11 of 15 shots (73.3%), but earned a no-decision after Allen and the offense’s spectacular play.

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 18-7-4, favoring the home team at 16 points over the roadies.

It’s another busy day in the NHL!  As usual, the action gets started at 7 p.m. eastern when two teams drop the opening puck (Tampa Bay at Buffalo [Bell TV] and Boston at Washington), followed half an hour later by two more (the New York Islanders at Montréal [RDS] and Winnipeg at Ottawa [RDS2]).  Nashville at Minnesota gets started at 8 p.m. eastern, followed an hour later by an additional two fixtures (Philadelphia at Calgary [SN360] and Colorado at Arizona).  Finally, this evening’s double-dose of nightcap gets started at 10:30 p.m. eastern when Columbus visits Los Angeles and Florida visits San Jose.

Two of tonight’s matchups involve divisional rivals (Lightning–Sabres and Predators–Wild), and a total of four games include two teams qualifying for the playoffs (Bruins–Capitals, Islanders–Canadiens, Jets–Senators and Predators–Wild).

The game that qualifies for both categories sounds like the best one to watch!

UnknownUnknown-4

 

 

 

This is Minnesota‘s fourth time being featured in the Game of the Day series, and are currently a perfect 3-0-0 in such games.  It is Nashville‘s first appearance in the Game of the Day series.

The 7-2-2 Nashville Predators currently sit in fifth place in both the Central Division and the Western Conference, albeit because of losing the second tiebreaker to tonight’s opponent.  They enter the game riding a two-game losing skid, with their most recent defeat coming at the hands of the Anaheim Ducks on The Pond, falling 4-2 on Sunday.

While the offense has been on par with the league so far this season, it has been 6-1-2 Pekka Rinne and the defense (specifically Alternate Captain Roman Josi and his 28 blocks) who have really shined.  They’ve allowed only 25 goals so far this season, including only four power play tallies, on 309 shots faced (91.9% save rate) (all of those numbers are under the league average).  Pair that with their 87.1% penalty kill rate, and you find a team that is hard to beat, even when the opposition has the upper hand.

The offense has accounted for 32 goals this season (Alternate Captain James Neal leads the way with seven), including eight on the power play (21.62% success rate), even though they only have 344 shots to their credit (8.7% shot percentage).  The power play has been potent, made evident by their goal total exceeding the league average even when Nashville has had fewer opportunities.  The Wild would be wise to keep penalties to a minimum.

The 7-2-2 Minnesota Wild enter tonight’s game after losing to the St. Louis Blues on the road in overtime on Halloween, 3-2.  Their offense has propelled the team to fourth in the Central Division and Western Conference.

Led by Alternate Captain Zach Parise’s seven goals, the Wild have notched a total of 35 goals on only 306 shots (11.4%), including eight power play goals (21.62% success rate).  As made evident by those percentages, Minnesota has found success scoring the puck, and it will be interesting to see how they handle a team as proficient on the defensive end as the Nashville Predators.

The offense has had to be good, because the defense has not done them many favors.  7-2-1 Devan Dubnyk and co. have given up 32 goals (league average) on only 300 shots (89.7% save percentage).  Fortunately, Jared Spurgeon’s 26 blocks have kept many pucks from reaching the crease, but Coach Mike Yeo should have reason to worry if Dubnyk is not simply starting his season slowly.

The biggest struggle for the Wild has been the penalty kill, as the squad has given up six goals on only 25 attempts (76%).  While the team has done all they can to avoid going a man down, this is an alarming number that can affect how the Wild plays going forward in the season.  If this rate cannot be improved, Minnesota will not be able to play as aggressively or check as often has they would like.

Last season, Minnesota won the season series 3-1-1 with a 4-2 victory on April 9 in Nashville.

Some players to watch in this one include Minnesota‘s Dubnyk (seven wins [tied for league lead] and one shutout [tied for seventh in the league]) and Nashville‘s Rinne (six wins [tied for third in the league], 1.97 GAA [sixth in the league] and one shutout [tied for seventh in the league]).

Although the Wild are hosting this game, I don’t think Dubnyk and the defense will be able to prevent Nashville from scoring, especially if the Predators can get under their skin and earn some power plays.  I think you can plan on seeing a Nashville Predators winner.

Categories
Daily Matchup

November 4 – Day 29 – These towns don’t like each other

In yesterday’s Game of the Day, the New York Rangers held home ice to beat the Washington Capitals 5-2.

The Blueshirts opened the scoring just before the ninth minute began when Kevin Hayes and Viktor Stalberg assisted Third Star of the Game Oscar Lindberg to his sixth goal of the season, but the Capitals leveled the game at one-all at the 15:45 mark when Nate Schmidt assisted Alex Ovechkin to his sixth tally of the season.  New York broke the tie 2:01 later when Lindberg and Marc Staal assisted Hayes to his third of the year.  The 2-1 lead held into the first intermission.

At the end of the second minute of the second period, Second Star Derick Brassard assisted Kevin Klein to what came to be the game-winner, followed 5:06 later by Brassard’s fourth of the season, setting the score at 4-1.  Washington scored the final goal of the period at the 18:53 mark when Karl Alzner and Justin Williams assist Marcus Johansson to his third of the season.

The lone goal of the final period belongs to Jarret Stoll and the Rangers, assisted by Keith Yandle and Klein at the 10:53 mark.

First Star Henrik Lundqvist saved 32 of 34 Capital shots (94.1%) to earn his sixth victory of the season (6-2-2 overall), while Braden Holtby earned his third loss (6-3-0 overall) after stopping only 16 of 21 (76.2%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 18-7-3 in favor of the home squad, who leads the roadies by 17 points.

After a busy nine-game schedule last night, Wednesday provides a light break in the action with only four games.  The festivities get started at 7 p.m. eastern when Winnipeg visits Toronto (SN/SN1), followed an hour later by St. Louis at Chicago (NBCSN/TVAS).  SN/SN1 viewers get an extra helping tonight, as their TVs will turn to Pittsburgh at Vancouver following the completion of the Jets–Leafs game.  That game gets started at 10 p.m. eastern.  Finally, Florida faces Anaheim on The Pond at 10:30 p.m. eastern.

St. Louis at Chicago is the only divisional rivalry being played this evening, and Pittsburgh at Vancouver is the only game between two playoff squads.  While the Penguins–Canucks game is tantalizing since it also includes the return of Nick Bonino to Rogers Arena, the Blues–Blackhawks rivalry has been too good in recent years to pass up.

Unknown-1Unknown-2

 

 

 

 

Last night, the 8-2-1 Blues were shutout by Jhonas Enroth and the Los Angeles Kings on home ice.  Jake Allen gave up two goals on 33 shots (93.9%).  Although those numbers sting, it still does not change the fact that St. Louis puts a team on the ice that features a strong defense.  The Blues currently sit second in both the Central Division and the Eastern Western Conference (trailing Dallas by three points).

So far this season, the Notes have given up only 26 goals (five below the league average), even though their goaltenders have faced 47 more shots than the league average.  Assisted by Colton Parayko’s 22 blocks, 4-2-0 Allen and 4-0-1 Brian Elliott (whom I expect will get the start this evening) are even shutting down the opposition’s power play opportunities.  While the Blues have given up the average number of power play goals (seven), they’ve had to defend against four more opportunities, setting their penalty kill-rate 2.17% higher than the league average.

On the other hand, the offense hasn’t quite been as strong as Coach Ken Hitchcock would like.  His squad has only managed 30 goals so far (one under league average), even though Vladimir Tarasenko and Alex Steen already have five or more goals to their credit.  The most frustrating part about not being as potent as in years past is it is not due to effort.  The Blues have put 355 shots on goal so far this season, 18 more than the league average, but their shot percentage is a lowly 8.5%, .6% lower than the league average.

Especially distressing has been the power play.  The Blues have only notched four tallies with the man-advantage, for a measly 10.53% success rate (8.31% below league average).

Turning our attention to the 7-5-0 Blackhawks, we find a team sitting in sixth place in the Central Division and eighth in the Western Conference, a position that does not qualify them for the playoffs.  In their last game played, Chicago bested the same Kings that shutout the Blues yesterday by a score of 4-2.  You can read a short recap about that game here.

Similar to tonight’s opposition, they have not been able to rely on their offense, so Corey Crawford and Co. have been responsible for much of the Hawks‘ success.  They’ve only allowed 26 goals so far this season, five below the league average.  Although Niklas Hjalmarsson’s 28 blocks have surely been much appreciated, it has been Crawford and his backup (1-2-0 Scott Darling) that have been busy, as they’ve had to save 342 shots against, of which they’re successful 92.4% of the time.  Even when a man-down, the Blackhawks have found a way to prevent the opposition from scoring 84.38% of the time and allowed only five man-advantage goals.

On the other hand, the offense has not been completely on par with the rest of the league.  They’ve only scored 28 times (led by Patrick Kane’s seven goals), which trails the league average by three tallies.  Similar to the Blues, it may simply be bad puck luck for the Hawks, as they’ve put 374 shots on goal, 37 more than the league average, but only 7.5% of those shots have found the back of the net.

Luckily for Chicago, the power play has been able to find success, scoring 19.51% of the time (compared to the 18.84% league average).  On 41 attempts, that is a total of eight goals in favor of the Hawks.

Last season, the Blues won the season series 3-2-0 by winning both April matchups, but were not able to utilize the momentum in the playoffs and fell in the Western Conference Quarterfinals to Minnesota in six games.  On the other hand the Hawks won the Stanley Cup, so maybe they aren’t too worried about winning the series?  Yeah, right.

This rivalry runs deep, maybe to the point of being one of, if not the best rivalry in the Western Conference.  In addition to the Blues–Blackhawks rivalry, these cities also have the infamous Cardinals–Cubs rivalry that was rekindled this season when the Cubbies beat the Redbirds in the National League divisional round.  Don’t think even for an instant that the St. Louis faithful don’t want to serve a little payback to Chi-Town.

That being said, the Hawks are favored in tonight’s matchup at -124.  With home ice behind them in this rivalry, it is hard to pick against Chicago, especially since they are playing on a day of rest and their much stronger power play.

Categories
Daily Matchup

November 3 – Day 28 – If the capital had stayed in New York, would the Rangers be the Capitals?

The Blackhawks took advantage of the Los Angeles Kings only managing two goals in the first period to claim a 4-2 victory last night.

Chicago opened the scoring after six minutes of play when Ryan Garbutt and Artemi Panarin assisted Jonathan Toews to his fifth goal of the season.  The Kings tied the game 8:38 later when Kyle Clifford and Second Star of the Game Jake Muzzin assisted Alec Martinez to his first goal of the year.  4:04 later, the Kings took their only lead of the night when Muzzin and Trevor Lewis assisted Anze Kopitar to his fourth of the season.  The 2-1 Kings lead held through both intermissions.

The Blackhawks finally tied the game after 1:22 passed in the third with a First Star Patrick Kane goal, assisted by Brent Seabrook and Viktor Svedberg.  The game-winner came 7:40 later when Kane and Artem Anisimov assisted Teuvo Teravainen to his third tally of the year.  Anisimov added a shorty for insurance, assisted by Toews, with 1:33 remaining in the game.

Second Star Corey Crawford earned his sixth win of the season by saving 33 of 35 (94.3%), while Jonathan Quick’s record fell to 6-4-0 after he saved only 22 of 26 (84.6%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 17-7-3, favoring the home team by 15 points.

It’s a busy nine-game Tuesday night in the league, especially in comparison to the three games played yesterday.  The action gets started at 7 p.m. eastern when three opening pucks drop (Dallas at Boston, New Jersey at the New York Islanders and Washington at the New York Rangers [TVAS]), followed half an hour later by two more games (Ottawa at Montréal and Tampa Bay at Detroit).  Starting at 8:30 p.m. eastern is the Los Angeles at St. Louis game (NBCSN), followed half an hour later by two more matchups (Calgary at Colorado and Philadelphia at Edmonton).  Finally, at 10:30 p.m. eastern, the nightcap of the evening begins when Columbus visits San Jose in The Tank.

Some notes on tonight’s games:

  • Four of tonight’s games are divisional rivalries (New Jersey at the Isles, Washington at the Blueshirts, Ottawa at Montréal and Tampa Bay at Detroit).
  • Four are between teams currently qualifying for the playoffs (Dallas at Boston, New Jersey at the Isles, Washington at the Blueshirts and Los Angeles at St. Louis).
  • Washington at the Blueshirts is an Eastern Conference Semifinals rematch from last season, and Ottawa at Montréal and Tampa Bay at Detroit is an Eastern Conference Quarterfinals rematch.

The only game that qualifies for all three lists will attract my attention this evening, as the Capitals travel up I-95 for their date with the Rangers.

Washington Capitals LogoNew York Rangers Logo

 

 

 

 

 

Beginning with the 8-2-0 road team, we find a squad that is living up to expectations on both ends of the ice.  The forwards have been scoring and the defenders and goalies have been keeping the opposition off the board to give the Capitals first place in the Metropolitan division and second in the Eastern Conference, albeit through a tiebreaker or two over tonight’s opposition.  They are currently riding a two-game win streak, with their most recent victory a 2-1 overtime game over Florida on Halloween.

On the offensive end of the ice, the Caps have put 296 shots on goal, led by Alex Ovechkin’s 41.  Although it is 34 fewer than the league average, you wouldn’t know it when you look at their 34 goals, which leads the league average by four tallies.  Put those together and you get an 11.5% shot percentage that leads the league average by a considerable 2.4%.  Especially spectacular has been the Washington power play, as they’ve scored seven goals (led by T.J. Oshie’s two) on only 29 opportunities, giving them a 24.14% success rate that dwarfs the league average by 5.26%.

On the other end of the ice, the Capitals have been just as strong.  Only 248 shots have made it to 6-2-0 Braden Holtby and his backup Philipp Grubauer, thanks in part to Karl Alzner’s 22 blocks.  With a save percentage of 91.9%, only 23 shots have become goals, a total that trails the league average by seven tallies.  The defense has especially clamped down when facing a man-advantage, as they’ve only allowed four goals (three less than the average hockey team) and killed 87.88% of attempts, 6.76% more than the NHL average.

Their opposition, the 7-2-2 New York Rangers, are also having a successful season so far.  They currently own second in the Metropolitan Division and third in the Eastern Conference due to losing a tiebreaker with the Caps.  While the offense has been good this season, the defense has certainly been better.  They also enter tonight’s game on a two-game win streak, with their most recent game ending in a 3-1 victory over Toronto on October 30.

342 shots have made their way to 5-2-2 Henrik Lundqvist and 2-0-0 Antti Raanta, and they’ve collectively saved 94.7% of those attempts, allowing only 21 goals on the season, a total that bests the league average by nine goals.  Just like Washington, the Blueshirts have stepped up their game when they need to, as they’ve only allowed four power play goals so far this season for a penalty kill rate of 87.88% (6.76% better than the league average).

The offense has 320 shots to their credit, and has converted 9.7% of those attempts for 31 goals.  While that is one goal over the league average, they’ve had to do it the hard way as they only have four power play goals to their credit after 28 opportunities.  Their 14.29% success rate trails the league average by 4.59%.

Last season, New York won the regular season series 3-1-0, and they followed it up with a Game 7 victory in the Conference Semifinals to eventually lose to the Bolts in the Conference Finals.

New York is favored at -125 coming into the game.  I still haven’t decided who I think is going to win, as I think Washington is the better team, but the Rangers do have the advantage of playing at home.  This game will be a good litmus test of the top of the Metropolitan division.

Categories
Daily Matchup

November 2 – Day 27 – All defense, all the time

Yesterday’s Game of the Day between the Winnipeg Jets and the Montréal Canadiens ended in a 5-1 victory for the home squad.

The Habs opened the scoring at the 6:34 mark of the first with a shorty from Third Star of the Game Paul Byron, assisted by Torrey Mitchell and Jeff Petry.  The game-winner came almost 10 minutes exactly from Second Star Tomas Fleischmann, assisted by First Star David Desharnais and Alexei Emelin.  The two-goal shutout held into the first intermission.

Thirty-five seconds after dropping the puck in the second, Fleischmann scored his second of the night, assisted by Dale Weise and Desharnais.  Two and a half minutes later, the Canadiens set the score at 4-0 with a tally from Desharnais, assisted by Fleischmann and Nathan Beaulieu.  Montréal ended their offensive onslaught at the 17:51 mark when Lars Eller, assisted by Andrei Markov and P.K. Subban, fired his power play goal past Ondrej Pavelec.  The five-goal shutout held into the second intermission.

Finally, the Jets got on the board at the 13:57 mark of the final period when Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers assisted Chris Thorburn to his second goal of the season.

The Mike Condon Era (albeit only a week or so long) got off to a good start as he earned his fourth victory in as many starts by saving 18 of 19 (94.7%), while 4-1-0 Michael Hutchinson earned his first loss of the season after saving five of nine (55.6%).  Pavelec replaced him after Desharnais’ goal and saved 16 of 17 (94.1%) for no decision.

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 16-7-3, still favoring the home team by 13 points.  Montréal improves to 4-0-0 when featured in our series, while Winnipeg falls to 0-1-1.

After a busy holiday weekend, there are only three games on the schedule this evening.  Beginning at 7:30 p.m. eastern at the Air Canada Centre are Dallas and Toronto (TVAS), followed an hour later by Los Angeles at Chicago (NHL Network).  The nightcap gets its start at 10 p.m. eastern when Philadelphia visits Vancouver.

None of tonight’s matchups involve divisional rivals or two teams qualifying for the playoffs, but given the expectations for the Hawks, their game against the Kings provides for an interesting game.

UnknownUnknown-2

After losing their first three games by a combined score of 12-2, the Los Angeles Kings have won seven straight games (their last victory a 4-3 win over the Predators on Saturday) to propel them to first place in the Pacific Division.  Their strength: the defense and goaltending.

So far this season, the Kings‘ defense has only allowed 295 shots on goal (led by Alec Martinez’ 19 blocks), a total that trails the league average by 24 attempts.  Even better is the goals against total (21) that trails the NHL average by eight tallies.  Put those numbers together, and you’ll find Jonathan Quick and his backup, 1-0-0 Jhonas Enroth, owning a 93.2% combined save percentage, exceeding the league average by 1.8%.  Even on the penalty kill, the Kings have found success.  Although their seven power play goals against is on par with the league, they’ve held that number even though they’ve faced five more man-advantages.  Their 82.93% kill rate bests the league average by 1.73%.

Los Angeles‘ offense has been working overtime to cover up their early season shortcomings, made evident by the 24 goals they’ve scored so far this season.  Center Tyler Toffoli leads the team by five tallies with nine goals to his credit.

Probably the biggest struggle for this squad has been putting shots on goal, as well as getting them into the back of the net.  They’ve only managed 305 shots so far, which trails the league average by 15 shots.  Bring into account their 7.9% shot percentage that trails the league average by 1.2%, and we find a team that, should they resolve these issues, becomes a serious threat in the Western Conference.

Turning our attention to the home side, we find a 6-5-0 team that hasn’t quite found the success yet that they’ve grown so accustomed to in seasons past.  Similar to Los Angeles, they’ve had to rely on their defense and goaltending for almost every point in the standings they’ve earned so far.  They enter the game on a two-game losing streak, their most recent a 5-4 loss in Minnesota on Friday.

Goaltender Corey Crawford (5-3-0) and his backup, 1-2-0 Scott Darling, have only allowed 24 goals this season, trailing the league average by five tallies, but they’ve received a lot of help from Niklas Hjalmarsson (24 blocks) and the Hawks‘ defense.  Because of their efforts, Crawford and co. have only faced 307 shots and saved 92.2% of them, both numbers that are better than the league average.  Even on the penalty kill, the defense has been strong.  On 30 attempts, opponents have only scored five times (two less than average), giving the Hawks a 83.33% kill rate that leads the league average by 2.13%.

The offense has only scored 24 goals this season, which trails the league average by five goals.  It has not been due to effort, though, as the offense has notched 348 shots, 28 over the league average.  But, because of that number, their 6.9% shot percentage trails the league average by 1.2%.

Although the standard offense may not be up to standard, the power play lines earn DtFR Gold Stars, as they have eight goals to their credit with a 20% power play success rate.

Last season, Chicago won two of three games against Los Angeles, but the more famous recent series occurred during the 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs when the Kings beat the Hawks in seven games in the Western Conference Finals en route to the four games to one routing of the New York Rangers in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Chicago is favored at -125 at home, but it is hard to ignore a Kings team looking for their eighth straight victory.  I think I’m picking the Hawks to win, but it should be an excellent game.

Categories
Daily Matchup

November 1 – Day 26 – All-Canadian

Phil Kessel’s homecoming went about as smoothly as possible for him, as his Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Toronto Maple Leafs with a four-goal shutout last night.

Chris Kunitz scored the winning tally on a power play, assisted by David Perron and Beau Bennett, at the 13:33 mark of the first, the only goal of the period.

Second Star of the Game Eric Fehr made a splash in his 2015-’16 debut by scoring a shorty at the 2:34 mark of the second, assisted by Matt Cullen.  Cullen and Fehr’s period had only just begun, as the two returned each other’s favors 7:55 later, as Fehr and Rob Scuderi assisted Cullen to his first of the season to set the score at 3-0, which held into the third.

The final goal of the game belongs to Patric Hornqvist, as he scored at the 4:31 mark after being assisted by Brian Dumoulin and Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, the First Star.

While the assist may be a feather in his cap, the cap itself for Fleury is certainly the 21-save shutout to earn his sixth victory of the win, while Jonathan Bernier’s record fell to 0-6-1 after saving only 28 of 32 (87.5%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 15-7-3, still favoring the home team by 11 points.

Although nowhere near as busy as yesterday, today’s schedule has more action than most Sundays so far this season.  The first game gets started at 3 p.m. eastern when San Jose visits Colorado, followed two hours later by Tampa Bay at Carolina.  Beginning at the usual 7 p.m. eastern starting time is Winnipeg at Montréal (NHLN/SN/RDS), followed half an hour later by Buffalo at the New York Islanders (TVAS/Bell TV).  The nightcap of the evening gets an early start, as Nashville and Anaheim drop the opening puck at 8 p.m. eastern on The Pond.

Only one of today’s matchups involve two teams currently qualifying for the Stanley Cup playoffs, so let’s tune in to the Winnipeg–Montréal game and make it only our second all-Canadian Game of the Day.

Unknown-3Unknown

 

 

 

 

Winnipeg has been a pleasant surprise this season, as the writers at DtFR did not think they would be able to hold on to their playoff spot from last year.  The 7-3-1 Jets are currently riding a two-game win streak, with their most recent being a 3-2 win over Columbus last night.  What has been most exciting about their success if they have had quality play on both ends of the ice.

The offense has scored 32 goals so far this season to exceed the league average by five tallies, even though they have three fewer shots.  Those fewer shots certainly separate Winnipeg though, as their 10.7% shot percentage leads the league average by 1.7%.  They’ve found particular success on the power play, as their seven goals on 29 attempts (24.14%) is a goal more on five fewer opportunities (18.47%).

The defense and goaltending has been equally as strong, as they’ve only given up 26 goals so far this season (one fewer than the NHL average), even though they’ve faced 33 more shots than the average squad.  This is reflected in their strong 93.1% save percentage, which exceeds the league average by 1.6%.

Even on the penalty kill, the Jets have been strong.  Even though they’ve given up six goals so far this opportunity, they’ve had to defend against two more opportunities, setting their kill rate at 83.33%.

I expect 4-0-0 Michael Hutchinson to get the start tonight after Pavelec’s win last night.

While the Jets have been a pleasant surprise this season, many would say that the 10-2-0 Habs have simply been a surprise, as the monster of the NHL has set their sights on yet another Stanley Cup.  Everything has been going Montréal‘s way so far this season, but the offense in particular has been worthy of everyone’s respect.  They enter tonight’s game after beating Calgary 6-2 Friday night in the Saddledome.

The club has scored a whopping total of 45 goals so far this season, 18 over the league average, which is a strong correlation to the 371 shots they have put on goal (leads the NHL average by 71) and their 12.1% shot percentage.  Montréal has been especially successful on the power play, as they’ve notched 10 goals already this season with the man-advantage.  Although they’ve done it with eight more opportunities, their 23.81% success rate still dwarfs the league average by 5.34%.

Even though the offense has been lighting up the scoreboard, 7-2-0 Carey Price has been no slouch in net either, as he and Mike Condon have given up only 23 goals so far this season, four under the league average, on 372 shots faced, 71 over the NHL average. Although they’ve had to do more work, they’ve been well up to the task as their 93.8% save percentage still exceeds the 91.5% league average.  They’ve been especially successful on the penalty kill, as they’ve stopped 88.1% of the opposition’s man-advantages (compared to the 81.53% league average).

Since the Habs didn’t play last night and they are playing a good Winnipeg team, I would expect Price to get the start in goal.

The Jets and Habs split their two-game series last season, with each team winning on home ice.

Montréal is favored at -185 at the Bell Centre, and although I don’t think it will be that extreme, I do believe that the well-balanced Jets may still be over-matched in tonight’s matchup.

Categories
Daily Matchup

October 31 – Day 25 – Hockey Halloween

The Minnesota Wild still remember getting swept in the Western Conference Semifinals by Chicago last season, but the defeat stings a little less tonight as they beat the Hawks 5-4 in front of their home fans at the Xcel Energy Center.

The Wild were firing on all cylinders from the opening puck drop, made evident by Ryan Suter and First Star of the Game Mikko Koivu assisting Third Star Jason Zucker to the opening goal only 18 seconds into the game.  They only held the one-goal lead until the 4:06 mark though, as Second Star Jonathan Toews scored a shorty to level the game.  The Blackhawks continued to press, taking a one-goal lead of their own 6:27 later via a Brent Seabrook power play tally, assisted by Artemi Panarin and Patrick Kane.  Similar to Minnesota though, their lead was short lived, as Ryan Carter and the Wild tied the game again at the 14:52 mark, assisted by Erik Haula and Chris Porter.  Minnesota capped the wild first period with another goal with less than a minute remaining, credited to Charlie Coyle and assisted by Marco Scandella and Koivu, to set the score at 3-2 going into intermission.

It was another two-goal period for the Blackhawks in the second, but not after Jared Spurgeon scored a power play goal, assisted by Thomas Vanek and Scandella, at the 3:01 mark.  The 4-2 lead held until the 10:47 mark, when Toews scored his second of the evening, assisted by Ryan Garbutt.  The Hawks struck again 2:55 later, when Erik Gustafsson and Trevor Daley assisted Artem Anisimov to his fourth goal of the season to level the score at four, which held into the second intermission.

The only goal scored in the third, and thus the game-winner, belongs to Nino Niederreiter, assisted by Zucker and Koivu.  He notched the winner at the 32 second mark, and goalie Devan Dubnyk was able to preserve the lead in the remaining 19:30 to earn the victory.

Dubnyk improved his record to 7-2-0 by saving 25 of 29 (86.2%), while backup goalie 1-2-0 Scott Darling earns his second loss of the season after saving only 25 of 30 (83.3%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 15-6-3, still favoring the home squad by 13 points.

The NHL has 10 games on the Halloween schedule, and all the wise kids are heading to their local stadium instead of hitting the streets for the best treat of all: hockey, obviously.  That being said, there’s a few teams getting their games over before the evening festivities begin.  The first action of the day gets started at 1 p.m. eastern when the New York Islanders take the Northeast Corridor Line to face New Jersey at The Rock (SN).  At 3 p.m. eastern, San Jose visits Dallas, followed an hour later by the final afternoon game: Nashville at Los Angeles.  Starting at the usual 7 p.m. eastern starting time are five games (Pittsburgh at Toronto [CBC/NHL Network], Detroit at Ottawa [TVAS], Boston at Tampa Bay, Washington at Florida and Winnipeg at Columbus [SN360/SN1]), followed an hour later by Minnesota at St. Louis.  The final game of the evening gets going at 10 p.m. eastern when Calgary visits Edmonton (CBC/TVAS).

Based on it being Halloween, I can already tell you how all of these matchups are going to go:

  • New Jersey will beat the Isles because a Devil is way scarier than the Gorton’s Fisherman.  Probably a billion goals to -5.
  • Same for the Sharks over the Stars, as the only stars that are scary are the crazies in Hollywood.
  • Speaking of Hollywood, let me know when you see a horror movie featuring a king as the monster; on the flip side, Predator has five total movies, and he even scares Arnold Schwarzenegger.  Predators over Kings, easy.
  • A winged wheel might be scary (like, bad dream scary), but not as scary as a Roman general.  Those guys didn’t mess around.  Ottawa wins this one.
  • I’m leaning towards a bruin being scarier than lightning, simply because I’ve spent less time near bears than I have been outside during a lightning storm.  Definitely means Boston will pull out the win.
  • Who’s scarier: the American government or panthers?  I’ll leave this one up to you.
  • I think Jets win on principle… and having advanced technology.  If the South had jets against the Union, America may not be the same, and that’s the scariest thought so far.
  • The outdoors against blues music?  Especially in Minnesota, the great outdoors wins every time (Hey, I’ve lived in the south too long.  I’ve acclimated and can’t handle much under 30° anymore), especially since all the music can do is make you sad.
  • An oiler‘s worst fear near his product is fire.  Calgary is super scary to Edmonton.

Anyways, tonight’s matchups feature five divisional rivalries (the Isles at New Jersey, Detroit at Ottawa, Boston at Tampa Bay, Minnesota at St. Louis and Calgary at Edmonton) and three games between two squads currently qualifying for the playoffs (Nashville at Los Angeles, Boston at Tampa Bay and Minnesota at St. Louis).  However, even with those in mind, tonight marks the return of Phil Kessel to his old stomping grounds of six seasons.

Pittsburgh Penguins LogoUnknown-3

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kessel’s Penguins are currently riding a three-game win streak, with their most recent victory being a result of weathering 24 third period Buffalo shots to secure a 4-3 win.  While offense is usually the first thing to come to mind when thinking of a squad with both Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel and Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins have strongly relied on their defense (especially Ian Cole, who has 27 blocks so far) and 5-4-0 Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to achieve their 6-4-0 record.  The Pens have given up 20 goals so far this season, six under the league average.  Even when a man or more down, the Penguins have still found a way to keep the opposition off the board, as they’ve only given up four power play goals (two less than the league average) to maintain an 87.1% penalty kill rate, exceeding the league average of 81.46%.  Fleury’s .937 save percentage also exceeds the league average by 2.2%.

In comparison to both their defense and Penguins teams in the past, the offense has been fairly lackluster.  The club has only tickled the twine 20 times, six goals below the league average.  Part of the problem has been the poor results on the power play.  In 32 attempts, the Penguins have only scored three goals (three below average), for a 9.38% power play.  What’s most frustrating for the team is their lack of offensive success hasn’t entirely been their fault.  Pittsburgh has shot the puck 315 times in 10 games, 31 more times than the league average, but has only scored on 6.3% of their shots.

Although the Pens‘ offense may not be quite on par, Kessel himself is having a decent start to the season.  He has six points (second on team) with four goals (tied for the team lead), all of them on even-strength (he leads the squad in that category) and two of them game-winners (second best on team), on 35 shots, another stat he leads the team in.

His ex-team, the 1-5-2 Toronto Maple Leafs, are still struggling to get their skates under them on both ends of the ice.  Offensively, they’ve only managed 19 goals so far this season, seven below league average.  Especially offensive offense has been played on the power play, as the team has only managed two goals with the man advantage, compared to the league average of six.  Their 8.7% success rate trails the league average by 9.84%.  All of this is a direct result of the low number of shots the Leafs have put on goal.  Only 264 pucks have been fired toward the net, 20 below average, and their shot percentage trails the league by 1.8%.

After seeing those numbers, people in Toronto might hope that the defense has tried to pick up some of the slack, but that has not been the case.  Toronto has allowed 28 goals this season, two over average.  Nine of those scores have been on the penalty kill, three higher than the league average, and their 71.88% penalty kill shows it, as it trails the league average by 9.58%.

Probably the best thing Toronto has going for them is their shots against.  They’ve only allowed 229 shots to reach Jonathan Bernier, but he and James Reimer have only been able to save 89.1% of those attempts, which trails the league average by 2.4%.

The only time the Maple Leafs qualified for the Stanley Cup playoffs during Kessel’s tenure was during the 2012-’13 season, which ended with the epic overtime collapse at the hands of the Bruins after having a 4-1 lead before the 9:18 mark of the final period during Game Seven.  During that year’s regular season, he led his team in goals (20), assists (32), points (52), even-strength goals (14), power play goals (six), game-winners (four), power play assists (15) and shots (161).  He followed up his impressive season to lead the Leafs in goals (four), even-strength goals (three) and game-winners (two), but it was not enough to stop the eventual Eastern Conference Champions.

Both of these teams are going in opposite directions, so I fully expect Kessel’s new squad to take care of business and earn their fourth-straight victory.

Oh, and penguins are scarier than leafs, mostly because at least a bird has more chance of causing harm than a leaf.

Categories
Daily Matchup

October 30 – Day 24 – Western Conference Semifinal Rematch

Head Coach Dan Bylsma’s return to the Consol Energy Center ended poorly, as his Buffalo Sabres fell 4-3 to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The Pens opened the scoring only 56 seconds into the game, as Sidney Crosby and First Star of the Game Ben Lovejoy assisted Pascal Dupuis to his first goal of the season.  Pittsburgh followed up that early goal with another at the 7:16 mark, when Crosby and Olli Maatta provided the helpers to Second Star Patric Hornqvist.  The two-goal lead held until the 14:25 mark, when Jamie McGinn, assisted by Tim Schaller and Rasmus Ristolainen, fired a shot past backup goalie Jeff Zatkoff, followed 2:15 later by a Nicolas Deslauriers goal, assisted by Third Star Ryan O’Reilly and Ristolainen, to set the score a two-all, which held into intermission.

It was all Pittsburgh in the second period.  Lovejoy broke the tie at the 8:18 mark, assisted by Evgeni Malkin.  Malkin’s line had only just begun, as he is responsible for the game-winner 6:39 later, assisted by Hornqvist and Phil Kessel.

Just as Pittsburgh controlled the second, Buffalo dominated the third.  In fact, the Sabres put 24 shots on goal in the final period, compared to a lowly four for Pittsburgh.  One of those shots, this one fired by Matt Moulson and assisted by O’Reilly and David Legwand, broke through in the 18th minute to set the final 4-3 score.

Chad Johnson’s record fell to 3-6-0 with tonight’s loss.  He saved 25 of 29 shots (86.2%), while Zatkoff saved 50 of 53 (94.3%) to earn his first win in his first start of the season.

After tonight’s game, the DtFR Game of the Day series stands at 14-6-3, favoring the home squad by 11 points.

Tonight’s schedule is another busy one, as there are nine games on the Friday schedule.  Four of those games get started at 7 p.m. eastern (Philadelphia at Buffalo [Bell TV], Toronto at the New York Rangers [SN360], Columbus at Washington and Colorado at Carolina), followed half an hour later by two more (Ottawa at Detroit [RDSI] and Boston at Florida).  Chicago and Minnesota drop the opening puck at 8 p.m. eastern, followed an hour later by Montréal at Calgary (RDS).  The final game gets started at 10 p.m. eastern between Vancouver and Arizona.

Five of the nine games tonight are divisional rivalries (Columbus at Washington, Ottawa at Detroit, Boston at Florida, Chicago at Minnesota and Vancouver at Arizona), and only one is between teams qualifying for the playoffs (Vancouver at Arizona).  But, only one is a rematch from last season’s playoffs: the Chicago–Minnesota matchup.  Since it’s also a divisional matchup, we’ll look a little further into that one.

Unknown-2Unknown-4

 

 

 

 

The 6-3-0 Chicago Blackhawks have relied on their defense to find their early success.  Led by 5-2-0 Corey Crawford and Niklas Hjalmarsson (23 blocks), the Hawks have only allowed 246 shots on goal, saving 93.5% of those attempts.  That converts into only 16 goals so far this season, eight below the league average.  Even when down a man, Chicago has still found a way to keep the opposition off the board, as they’ve only given up three power play goals on 25 attempts for a 88% penalty kill rate, 7.35% above the league average.

The offense, on the other hand, has not been quite as stellar. as they’ve only notched 19 goals so far, five below the league average.  That being said, the power play has scored just as many as the rest of the league (six), albeit on six more opportunities.  Therefore, Chicago‘s 16.67% power play trails the league average by 1.68%.

Turning our attention to the 6-2-1 home squad, we find a Minnesota team that leans on their offense for success.  They’ve scored 28 goals so far this season, seven of which are a result of the power play (one above the league average).  On 30 attempts, their 23.33% power play percentage leads the league average by 4.98%.  The most exciting facet of this offense has been their two shorties scored this season.  While not something the team can rely on, these tallies can certainly sway the momentum of a game in their favor, and it is beneficial to the squad to know they have that capability going forward.

While the defense hasn’t been as successful as the offense, it still has been fairly stout.  The squad has only given up one more goal than league average, of which only five have been on the power play.  This stat is slightly misleading though, as the team has only defended 23 power plays, giving them a 78.26% kill rate (3.39% below league average).

Probably the biggest shortcoming of this Wild team is their lack of shots.  Minnesota has only notched 245 shots on goal this season, 23 below the NHL average.  Fortunately for them, they’ve scored 11.4% of those shots (2.3% over the league average), but it may not be wise to rely on that percentage for long without increasing their shot count.

Last season, Chicago won the regular season series against the Wild 3-2-0 before sweeping them in the Western Conference Semifinals.

Some players to watch in tonight’s game include Chicago‘s Crawford (two shutouts [tied for league lead], five wins [tied for fourth in the league], 1.76 GAA [tied for sixth in the league] and .938 save percentage [tied for eighth in the leauge]) & Patrick Kane (13 points [fourth in the league] on six goals [tied for sixth in the league]) and Minnesota‘s Devan Dubunyk (six wins [tied for second in the league] and one shutout [tied for sixth in the league]) & Zach Parise (seven goals [tied for second in the leauge]).

The line for tonight’s game reads -145 in favor of Minnesota, but given Chicago‘s success against Minnesota last year, I am weary of siding with Vegas in this one.

Categories
Daily Matchup

October 29 – Day 23 – Back to his Beginnings

I don’t know about you, but yesterday’s Game of the Day did not end as I expected, as the Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Washington Capitals 3-1 at the Verizon Center.  Phil Kessel, assisted by Evgeni Malkin and David Perron, notched the game winner at the 3:49 mark of the third period.

Washington waited to open the scoring until the 1:28 mark of the final period.  Karl Alzner assisted Evgeny Kuznetsov to his fourth goal of the season to give the Caps a one-goal lead, but it was short lived – only 24 seconds, in fact, as Nick Bonino and Olli Maatta assisted Beau Bennett to the game-tying goal.  Bonino also scored an empty netter with under two minutes remaining in the game.

Marc-Andre Fleury earned his fifth win of the season by stopping 33 of 34 shots (97.1%) to set his record at 5-4-0, while Braden Holtby takes the loss, his second of the season, after allowing two of 24 shots faced (91.7%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 13-6-3, favoring the home team by nine points.

Tonight’s schedule is another full one, with a total of eight games on the night.  The action gets started at 7 p.m. eastern when three games get started (Carolina at the New York Islanders, New Jersey at Philadelphia and Buffalo at Pittsburgh [Bell TV]), followed half an hour later by Colorado at Tampa Bay.  Beginning at 8 p.m. eastern are two games (Anaheim at St. Louis and Chicago at Winnipeg), followed half an hour later by Vancouver at Dallas.  Finally, the night begins to see its end at 9 p.m. eastern when Montréal visits Edmonton (SN, SN360, RDS).

Of tonight’s matchups, three are divisional rivalries (Carolina at the Isles, New Jersey at Philadelphia and Chicago at Winnipeg) and only one game featuring two teams currently in playoff position (Vancouver at Dallas).

Those games being noted, there is another matchup that strikes my fancy, as it is the first return of an ex-coach to play against his ex-team.  That man is none other than Dan Bylsma, who is featured in the Buffalo–Pittsburgh matchup.

Buffalo Sabres LogoPittsburgh Penguins Logo

 

 

 

 

 

 

I know, we watched Pittsburgh yesterday, but this is a significant return.  Although under slightly bizarre circumstances, Bylsma is the last coach to lead the Pens to the Stanley Cup.  Plus, it’s Game of the Day’s first opportunity to see Jack Eichel in action, so I shouldn’t hear any complainers.

Coach Bylsma returns to the home arena of the team he led to the 2009 Stanley Cup with only 25 regular season games coached after replacing Michel Therrien mid-season.  Winner of the 2010-’11 Jack Adams Award, Bylsma is the winningest coach in team history (252 wins, 20 more than Eddie Johnston), as well as the coach with the highest win percentage (67%).

As we all know, the reason for Bylsma’s departure from the Triangle was not his regular season success, but his post-season letdowns.  Under his direction, the Penguins improved every regular season until the 2013-’14 season, beginning in his first full season with a .616 point percentage that grew to .75 by the time of his release.  However, his postseason win-loss percentage is a different story.  During his tenure the team won the Cup, then fell in the conference semifinals, followed by falling in the conference quarterfinals twice in a row, improving to the conference finals, then finally the semifinals.  While some teams would love to make the playoffs on a consistent basis and make it past the first round most of the time, the Pittsburgh teams he coached were built to win, and only one cup did not satisfy ownership.

The Buffalo Sabres are currently 3-6-0 coming off a 4-3 win over Philadelphia on Tuesday.  While folks in Upstate New York may be excited to usher in the Eichel Era, there have been some growing pains so far this season.  The team has scored four goals less and given up five over the league average.  The offensive production may be more due to bad luck though, as the Sabres have put 283 shots on goal so far this season, 21 over the league average, but only 6.7% of those attempts are finding the back of the net.

Probably the most exciting part about this Sabres team is their power play.  The special teams have accounted for nine goals so far this season (three over the league average) on 36 opportunities, giving them a 25% success rate that exceeds the league average by 6.39%.

Sadly, this positive comes with its own negative, as the penalty kill is vastly inferior to the rest of the NHL.  Buffalo has given up seven power play goals so far on only 23 opportunities (seven under the league average), giving them an atrocious penalty kill percentage of 69.57%, 11.82% under the league average.  Fortunately for the Sabres, they have been limiting penalties to a minimum to avoid man-down situations as much as possible, but penalties do happen and this statistic may be a monkey that hangs on the squad’s back for the entire season.

As explained yesterday, Bylsma’s old team is leaning heavily on Fleury and the defense, and there has been no indication that Jeff Zatkoff will see his first playing time tonight, although I don’t think anyone would be surprised if he did, given that Fleury has played every minute of all nine games this season.

Some players to watch in this one include Buffalo‘s Jake McCabe (two even strength goals [leads team] and 40% shot percentage [leads team]), Ryan O’Reilly (eight points [leads team], five assists [leads team], four power play assists [leads team]) & Sam Reinhart (+2 Corsi rating [leads team] and three even-strength assists [leads team]) and Pittsburgh‘s Malkin (seven points [leads team], four assists [leads team], three even-strength assists [leads team], two game-winners [leads team] and 13.6% shot percentage [leads team]) and, should he play, Fleury (five wins [tied for third in league], one shutout [tied for sixth in the league], 1.9 GAA [eighth in the league] and .936 save percentage [ninth in the league]).

Conventional wisdom points to the Penguins being favored in this one, but I think Pittsburgh‘s poor power play provides the Sabres a way to keep this one closer than expected.