Author: Cap'n Cornelius

So, let’s look into a sad future.  A future less than 24 hours from now that sees all of the Jackets big three free agents walk.  It isn’t an unlikely future, unfortunately.  With Florida trading James Reimer so they could acquire and buyout Scott Darling it sure seems like the Panthers are looking to make room for at least one of Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky, but preferably for Dale Tallon, both of the Russians.  The only talk about Matt Duchene for most of this week has involved Montreal and Nashville and his good friend, Ryan Dzingel, unsurprisingly will not be back in Columbus.

You can’t fault Jarmo Kekalainen for attempting to build a team that compete both in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs and beyond by shoring up his center position with the addition of Duchene.  Bringing in Dzingel to help sell Duchene on a more permanent move while also addressing the weakness on left wing initially seemed brilliant, but ultimately backfired when Head Coach John Tortorella was unable to find a way to co-exist with Dzingel, culminating with scratching Dzingel from the lineup during the Boston series in favor of playing the mercurial Alex Wennberg.  It was pretty clear when Dzingel was talking to the press and cleaning out his locker that he was a goner and Duchene had one less reason to stick around.

Should this all come to past, as noted in my other article, the Jackets shouldn’t just add players to add players.  They should continue to be methodical and creative to address their holes on the left wing and center.

It is important to remember that the center position is more likely to sort itself out internally.  The Jackets have two very good chances to develop a player that can take a role behind Pierre-Luc Dubois in the lineup.  There is every reason to believe Dubois will continue to develop as a first line center.  Which means the pressure on Liam Foudy and Alex Texier is not what it might have been in the past.  Boone Jenner is certainly capable of playing second line minutes in the short term.  Nick Foligno as first line left wing is a bit more concerning.  Foligno is a fine player, but at this point in his career is more suited to play second or even third line minutes.  So, the Jackets should be on the hunt for a center, but probably more importantly, for a left wing both because they lack a current left wing that has high level talent with Panarin’s departure and because their strength going forward is heavily weighted to the right side.

What assets do the Jackets have to offer in a trade?  TSN has conspicuously listed Ryan Murray highly on their Trade Bait list.  This isn’t too surprising.  Murray is due a raise and the Jackets have the opposite problem on defense–they are overstocked on the left side.  With the addition of Gavrikov and with solid play from Dean Kukan in the playoffs (already extended) and with Zach Werenski also due a substantial pay increase, Murray or Markus Nutivaara are probably the easiest players with value to move.  Some would argue David Savard, who played quite well in the playoffs and might be at a high point in his value, particularly as a right-handed shot, but the problem there is that the Jackets lack depth on the right side as it is.  Andrew Peeke is probably the next right handed prospect with a chance to play in the NHL and he is probably not ready to take on that role this year.

The challenge with Murray has always been his ability to stay healthy.  He finally showed his potential this season only to be slowed by another injury.  This makes him a difficult player to trade.  Additionally, the hotter commodity when it comes to defensemen, as noted above, is right handed defensemen.  There are names out there such as Tyson Barrie (whose contract is up after this season) and Rasmus Ristolainen.  Those players may have to find a destination before a team looks at Murray.  Another left defenseman out there who is likely to get serious consideration ahead of Murray if he’s truly available is Shayne Gostisbehere.  So, while Murray is a solid defenseman, he has some competition in the market.

Markus Nutivaara is a solid, cost-controlled defenseman with some upside.  He can play the right side even though he is left handed, so maybe that adds some attraction.  He may have more offensive upside than Murray, but isn’t necessarily as positionally sound as Murray is.  He hasn’t had the same injury history.  But these are the very reasons the Jackets may be less than thrilled to part with Nutivaara.

What else do the Jackets have in the way of assets?  Sonny Milano is still an asset, but, based on the rough season he had that included a serious injury, he is probably more of a throw in at this point.  Bemstrom, Texier and Foudy are untouchable at the moment.  There are certainly deeper prospects like Fix-Wolansky and Kole Sherwood who could be of interest in a trade, but, again, these are not going to be more than add-ins to even out a deal.  The Jackets’ draft pick situation isn’t all that great, but if Duchene is not re-signed, they will have a first round pick in 2020 if they want to dangle it.  However, given the uncertainty of the upcoming season, it seems like hanging onto that pick is the wiser option barring a truly ridiculous trade opportunity becoming available–this is the only time I’ll allow any thought of Mitch Marner because we are not giving up 4 first round picks for him via offer sheet, but if you had to put in 1-2 picks and a player and prospect, yes, you’d probably have to look at that.

I’m not going to entertain trading Werenski this offseason.  No, not even in a trade for Marner.  Maybe if Vladislav Gavrikov has an overwhelming season this would be a consideration next off-season, but I am just not there at this point.  Defensive depth is going to be a key if this team is going to be a contender and I don’t see trading Werenski as a particularly good option

There is one additional asset the Jackets could use in a trade and that is their depth at right wing.  As I noted in my other article, when you look at the Jackets’ right side, they have an overabundance both now and in he future.  Cam Atkinson, Josh Anderson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Emil Bemstrom, Sherwood and Fix-Wollansky are all right wings.  Anderson and Sherwood are the only two with any real size.  The rest are of the speedy and skilled wings.  Anderson’s contract will be up again next year. He will have arbitration rights and his agent has not been easy to deal with in recent negotiations–witness the Mitch Marner situation.  Should he get Marner $11 million, as he hopes, he’ll be shooting for the moon, but not that high, with Anderson next summer.  With the way the Restricted Free Agent Market has changed since his last contract, he could be due for a huge raise.  If arbitration doesn’t go well, it could lead to a short term contract that might lead to Anderson’s departure before the 2021 offseason.

On the other hand, as noted, Anderson is very different from the Jackets other right wings.  He brings a combination of speed and size that is hard to find.  Compare this to Oliver Bjorstrand who has struggled to find ice time competing against Atkinson and Anderson.  Now add Bemstrom to that competition and where does Bjorkstrand fit going forward?  That’s without another prospect like Fix-Wolansky potentially coming up and surprising people (as he has repeatedly).  With the Jackets seemingly unwilling to play Bjorkstrand on his off-wing, where does that leave him?

I’m a huge fan of both Anderson and Bjorkstrand so I am not suggesting them as tradable assets without serious reservations.  They are good players and they may well become even better players.  Frankly, I think Bjorkstrand has been held back by his usage to this point.  But you have to give something to get something and the sign of a good deal (including a trade) is often that neither side is totally happy with it.  Make no mistake though, Anderson and Bjorkstrand are only available for a home run–a first line left wing or a second line (or better) center.

With all of that in mind, who might be some targets and what might be some other things the Jackets could do to put themselves in a position to improve the chances to make a deal?

Let’s start off with the low-hanging fruit–the guys on the trading block or plausibly on it.  Not necessarily in order of possibility or priority.

1.  Jason Zucker.  When you, very publicly, try to trade a guy two times only for it to fail, its probably a sign that its time for both parties to move on.  Zucker is 27 years old and under contract for 4 more years at a cap hit of $5.5 million.  That is probably less than Mats Zuccarello is going to get and he will be the same age is Zuccarello is now when his contract is over.  Minnesota attempted to trade him for Phil Kessel, so they are primarily looking for help at forward.  While his production went from 64 points in 2017-18 to 42 points last year, in his defense, Minnesota was kind of a train wreck.  Nonetheless, would you trade Bjorkstrand or Anderson for Zucker?  I’m not sure I would.  Worth noting–Bjorkstrand’s father is from Minnesota, and you can’t underestimate the whole obsession Wild fans (and management) seem to have for guys with a Minnesota connection.
2. Nazem Kadri.  You may have heard the Leafs need cap room in order to make room for Mitch Marner’s new contract.  You may also have heard the Leafs were not happy with Kadri’s boneheaded play during their series against Boston.  On a good team like the Leafs, Kadri is a third line center.  But, in a pinch, he can play second line center.  What do the Leafs need? Cap relief.  Cheap help on defense.  The challenge here is that the Leafs also don’t have a lot of depth at center. Shot in the dark–Riley Nash and Dean Kukan?  The Leafs are really in a bad situation, but I don’t buy the idea they move Marner or Nylander.  They will find a way and it probably will involve Kadri departing.  Just not sure there is a true fit here for the Jackets.
3. Yanni Gourde/Tyler Johnson/Alex Kilorn.  This possibility may be fading.  Had the Lightning added Joe Pavelski, this seemed inevitable to make room for him.  At the moment, subject to change, Dallas seems to be in the lead for Pavelski’s services.  All 3 players have a no-trade clause to complicate matters.  What would the Lightning want?  Cap relief and a cheap defenseman wouldn’t hurt.
4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  Look, let’s just get through this quick.  He’s Spezza 2.0–the guy potentially in the rumor mill that fits a need the Jackets have.  He’s still only 26 years old.  He has 2 years left on his deal for a reasonable $6,000,000 and he plays center AND left wing.  What do the Oilers need?  Defense and, ironically, better wings for Connor McDavid.  And depth.  Maybe Ken Holland is finally the guy to trade RNH, but, I doubt it.  So, he’ll play out the next two years with Edmonton and then probably take his turn on the Dallas carousel of aging centers.
5. Brandon Saad/Artem Anisimov.  No, I’m just kidding.
6. David Krecji.  This would be a cap space move if it happened, but the Bruins aren’t giving this guy up for nothing even with his injury history.   His contract is down to the last two years, so the $7,250,000 cap hit suddenly doesn’t seem so bad.  I just think the price will be too steep.  Otherwise, the two year term is nearly perfect for the timeframe it is likely to take Foudy and Texier to develop and it would give them a mentor, etc.
7. Kyle Turris.  There are a million warning signs with this guy.  The term of his contract is staggering.  His production has decreased.  I mean, there’s a reason the Predators are chasing Duchene.  Heck, even if you traded Alex Wennberg straight up for him in a “change of scenery” deal, I think you might regret it when you were stuck buying him out at a much higher cost than a buyout on Wennberg.  Hard pass.
8. Mike Hoffman.  After only acquiring him a year ago, his name was in the rumor mill by the deadline.  And he kind of has a reputation as a locker room cancer from the whole mess in Ottawa. But, he only has a year left on his deal, so if it doesn’t work, not a huge deal.  And this is a guy that maybe a straight up trade for Murray works?  Certainly not a Plan A, but it’s a thought.  Likely a short term solution though.
9. Chris Kreider. If they don’t sign Panarin (unlikely), I’m not sure there is much point in rushing to trade Kreider now rather than trading him at the deadline.  I’m also not convinced he’s a true #1 left wing.  They’d mainly be looking for a younger player/prospect and you do have to keep in mind that maybe John Davidson has his eye on a player in the Jackets organization.  But this seems like a subpar use of assets.
10. Adam Henrique.  I only listed his name to ask how on earth Bob Murray keeps signing guys like him and Ryan Kesler to these absurd deals.  5 more years and almost $6 million/year cap hit at age 29. Hardest of hard passes.
11. Nikita Gusev.  So, Vegas decided to rush their window and now they have to pay the piper.  He’s a left wing, but a right shot, so the Jackets may not feel this is ideal.  On the other hand, he’s 26 years old and could come cheap both as far as contract (he’s an arbitration-eligible RFA) and as far as what it takes to get him (Vegas is vulnerable to an offer sheet that gives them very little.). Worth consideration.

Okay, those are some names that are out there, but now let’s get really out there.  Jarmo threw away his Easy Button a long time ago, so, what could he do if he really wanted to get creative and go after a guy that is in the prime of his career?  Let’s talk offer sheets and RFA trades.

No, we are NOT going to talk about Mitch Marner or Brayden Point.  No one in their right mind is giving up 4 first round picks and paying $10 million for these guys.  Just not happening.  If you thought the screams were loud when Jarmo traded picks at the deadline, multiply that by 1000 times.  Just not going to happen.  But there are other guys out there on teams with varying degree of cap issues.  Specifically, Kyle Connor (Winnipeg), Timo Meier (San Jose) and Kevin Labanc (also San Jose).

So, there’s some good news and bad news here.  The good news–the draft compensation for these guys is likely to be substantially lower than it would for Marner and Point.  I would expect, at the high end, you’d be looking at a First, Second and Third Round Pick.  But, here is where the problem for the Jackets starts.  They don’t presently have their second and third round picks.

Enter the Ottawa Senators.  Even after the trade for Nikita Zaitsev which (wink, wink) isn’t yet complete, the Senators are below the cap floor.  Unlike the Jackets, their remaining RFA’s are not likely to push them over the floor.  Perhaps a player like Alex Wennberg might have some value for Ottawa–he’s still young, maybe he really does need a change of scenery.  Perhaps Sonny Milano is of some interest.  Whatever the deal, the Jackets somehow get back their second and third round picks in addition to their first round pick they retained as a result of Duchene now signing.

This would be a very visible tell to teams with restricted free agents that Jarmo was at least considering an offer sheet, which would change the tenor of subsequent conversations centered around a trade for the player in question.  The team would know that if a trade wasn’t worked out, there is a possibility Jarmo simply goes the offer sheet route.  And, frankly, for Meier or Connor in particular, the offer sheet route seems pretty good to me.  A first, second and third round pick for a top line left wing in the prime of their career?  Yes, I’ll do that.

San Jose is more vulnerable because of how close they are to the cap, but Winnipeg still has a lot of holes to fill.  Additionally, after trading Trouba and likely losing Tyler Myers on defense, they really lack defensive depth.  So, there’s a match there, but it could be a steep price–let’s say Murray and one of Bjorkstrand or Anderson.  Of course, the Jets are already potentially marketing Nikolaj Ehlers and if they can manage a trade of Ehlers for a defenseman–let’s say Tyson Barrie–their situation is probably less precarious and they are probably less interested in a trade.  Acquiring Ehlers is also a possibility, but the Jets priorities, to this point have been a right shot defenseman and with Barrie and Ristolainen on the market, it seems like that’s a price they should be able to get.

Kyler Connor would be a catch if he could be acquired.  Speed and size.  34 goals last year and 66 points.  5 points in 6 playoff games.  Connor is one guy that a trade of Anderson would hurt less because you are trading for a version of Anderson with higher upside who plays on the other wing.  Of course, having both of them in your lineup would also be very attractive.  It’s a long shot, but so was landing Panarin in trade.

San Jose, on the other hand, has painted themselves into a corner.  After re-signing Erik Karlsson, they’ve already effectively let Joe Pavelski walk.  Now they have to re-sign Labanc and Meier plus roster spots for 4 more forwards and a 7th defenseman with less than $15,000,000 in cap space and Patrick Marleau wanting to return to the team (presumably on a cheap deal).  Meier and Labanc are just 22 and 23, respectively.  Meier put up 30 goals and 66 points and Labanc had 17 goals and 56 points.  Of the two, Meier projects as more of a first line talent or at least a high end second line talent.  Also, Labanc is a right shot even though a capable left wing.

Teams have used offer sheets strategically in the past to get a team to further hamper their ability to match an offer for the actual target–ironically, it was what San Jose did to acquire Antti Niemi after they gave an offer sheet to Niklas Hjalmarsson.  But I’m not sure if that would work out if you put an offer sheet on Labanc.  The Sharks might let you have him in order to protect Meier.  The direct route is probably the safest–go after Meier first and take Labanc if the Sharks match and put themselves in position that they can’t sign Labanc.  Of course, any offer sheet would be proceeded by a trade discussion and it may well be that San Jose might have interest in a cost-controlled forward and/or defenseman given their current cap situation.

Of course, it is also possible that Jarmo can facilitate a trade if one of these teams is threatened by another team with an offer sheet.  That’s apparently what happened that led to the Brandon Saad trade.  So, Jarmo is no stranger to these territories.

There are a lot of options, but a trade/offer sheet that nets one of Meier or Connor would be the most intriguing and seems like the sort of move Jarmo has made in prior years.

After a year of highs (the sweep of Tampa) and lows (the Panarin and Bobrovsky saga), it all comes down to less than 24 hours for the Columbus Blue Jackets future to be determined.  While some may hope for a last minute change of heart from Panarin, that ship seems to have sailed.  With each passing minute, the chance for a sign and trade that nets some value from the departing Russians also fades.  It would seem the competitors for their services are more willing to overpay on annual salary than they are to give an asset to the Jackets to get an eighth year for the player.  So it. goes.

Matt Duchene’s future with the Jackets is also seriously in doubt.  However, of the three, the consensus seems to be that Duchene is the one that might still be persuaded to stay.  As I predicted previously, there seem to be 3 suitors based on Duchene’s personal preferences and cap space to sign him:  the Jackets, the Canadiens and the Predators.  The Predators seemed like a foregone conclusion when Ray Shero decided to help the Predators and his own team while potentially hurting the Jackets by taking on all of P.K. Subban’s salary.  However, proximity to home and the fact that Duchene grew up rooting for the Habs could tip the scales toward Montreal.  On the other hand, the Jackets might be a safe middle ground both literally and figuratively–geographically between home and Nashville’s country music scene that Duchene loves and also competitively somewhere between the Predators and Montreal as far as capability of competing for a Cup.

The Jackets shouldn’t shy away from backing up the Brinks truck to Duchene.  They came this far, might as well go all in.  Overpaying a productive player like Duchene, as I’ll explain, makes substantially more sense than paying for the likes of Mats Zuccarello.

There will be a cost to signing Duchene, make no mistake.  It is the same cost that the Jackets would have had to extending Panarin, which they were clearly ready to do even though the Jackets have more depth at wing than they do at center, presently.  The problem isn’t this year.  The Jackets had plenty of cap space to sign Bobrovsky and Panarin, which was likely the initial plan.  That’s even after paying Ryan Murray and Zach Werenski for their new contracts.  It is next offseason where things get tricky.

Let’s just assume for a moment that Werenski’s AAV on his next deal is around $6.5 million give the current free agent market.  You could argue up or down from there, but I think that is a safe midpoint.  Let’s also assume Murray ends up with an AAV of $4.5 million. Again, you could argue up or down from there, but that is probably a safe midpoint.  So, their combined AAV comes in around $11 million.  Also, worth pointing out that for this reason the Jackets are in no danger of being under the cap floor.

Now, let’s say that Duchene signs an 8 year extension and let’s just be conservative and say that the AAV is around $10 million.  That still leaves the Jackets about $7 million in cap space for this season.  But, again, next season is where it becomes tricky.  Anderson, Dubois and Merzlikins will all be RFA’s.  That Jackets would have only about $15 million in cap space to sign all 3.  They could make room with a buyout of Brandon Dubinsky, that would give them an extra, roughly $3 million.  They could also make room with a buyout of Alex Wennberg.  This actually creates more cap room–about $4.5 million.  The only problem would be that Wennberg would impact the Jackets’ cap through 2025-26.

There is another alternative if Duchene is signed that will certainly frighten some.  However, as I’ll detail in a separate article, it may end up being an alternative if the Jackets don’t sign Duchene–trade Josh Anderson.

I know what you are going to say: “Trade Anderson?  Are you nuts?  His size and speed.  He is exactly what you want in a player, particularly in the playoffs.”  I don’t disagree with any of this, but I also look to the future and I wonder how much it will cost to retain Anderson and whether the Jackets strength on the right side justifies trading Anderson to add someone on the left side, where the Jackets depth is weaker.  With respect to re-signing him, let’s keep in mind his last contract negotiation wasn’t pleasant and Darren Ferris will be even more emboldened should he actually get Mitch Marner $11 million or more per year.  What sort of contract will Ferris seek for Anderson if he puts up 30 goals or more next season?

If you are going to trade Anderson, you have to get a left wing that is cost-controlled for, ideally, at least the next 4 years.  Again, I’ll discuss this separately in another article.

Either way, getting Duchene keeps the Jackets as an immediate contender in the 2019-20 season by shoring up their center situation. With Dubois, Duchene and Jenner, there is probably a fight for the final center spot between the incumbent, Wennberg, Riley Nash, Alex Texier and Liam Foudy.  Something is likely to sort itself out there and it isn’t necessary for Texier or Foudy to have to face the immediate pressure of being a #2 center.  Heck, they might end up playing left wing to ease into the league.

Even if you trade Anderson as a result of signing Duchene, you have Atkinson locked in as the top right wing and Bjorkstrand moving up to the second line, where he played well to finish the season.  From there you have Bemstrom potentially getting a shot on the third line where, again, pressure will be lower on him.  If he isn’t quite ready, perhaps Sherwood is.  If not, depending on who takes the vacant center spot, Riley Nash might take on this role.  The right side really is not a problem even if Anderson were to be moved.

If the Jackets swing and miss on Duchene, they should not fall to the temptation of the middle ground.  Taking a shot and Anders Lee would be worthwhile because of the weakness on the left side and because of Lee’s talent level and skillset.  Unlike the departing Panarin, Lee is a guy who likes to play low in the offensive zone and who will grind and cycle the puck.  The idea of him with Dubois and Atkinson is intriguing and not too steep of a fall off from Panarin.  Joe Pavelski would have been interesting, but he apparently rebuffed a request by the Jackets to speak with him.  Gustav Nyquist is, perhaps, the must below-the-radar option.  He actually had more points than Lee last season, though is less of a goal scorer.  He’s capable of playing all three forward positions, which is always nice for a guy like him who, ideally, is a middle six forward.

After those two, it is a steep drop off.  One name connected to the Jackets has been Mats Zuccarello.  This has all the makings of a bad deal considering that Zuccarello is looking for 4-5 years on his deal and will be 32 years old entering the season.  His production has declined already and he’s only hit the 20 goal plateau once in his career.  As it stands, the Jackets cap situation gets even better in two years when Dubinsky and Foligno are off the books, giving the Jackets room when they need it to sign Bjorkstrand’s next contract, and Jones’ next contract, etc.  Adding Zuccarello takes away some of that future cap flexibility and feels like the sort of deal that may later result in a buyout.

Signing Zuccarello also takes away flexibility next offseason to go after free agents after getting Anderson and Dubois signed.  Taylor Hall will potentially be available, but so will guys like Alex Galchenyuk and Mikael Granlund.  If the Habs sign Duchene, an offer sheet for Max Domi would be an option.  Nothing about Zuccarello suggests that he is worth taking away options next offseason.  With Lee and Nyquist, at least they address immediate needs at left wing or center, but, perhaps the better approach is to simply stick with what the Jackets have and search for trade options.  Again, stay tuned for some thoughts on that.

That would serve another purpose–a test of John Tortorella’s ability to get the most out of players that fit the current NHL, but don’t necessarily fit the coach’s personal biases.  With no additions to the current roster, Torts will be forced to co-exist with the likes of Sonny Milano, Alex Texier, Eric Robinson and Emil Bemstrom and to get the most out of them if the team is going to succeed.  He’s going to have to get more out of Oliver Bjorkstrand and, for better or worse, Alex Wennberg.  If he can’t do that, when you look at the Jackets pipeline, some of the most talented of which are undersized wings, you have to ask if he is the right man for the job going forward.  Staying the course will give a clear answer on whether Torts is right for the job and will also give a clear answer on whether guys like Milano and Wennberg, in particular, have a future in the organization.  Overpaying a guy like Zuccarello and/or bringing in a guy like Brian Boyle will just allow Torts to, once again, bury young players.  If you aren’t adding a difference maker like Lee or keeping a guy like Duchene, that seems ill-advised.

So, we’ll know which way the Jackets go in less than 24 hours, but here is hoping that they either keep Duchene, damn the cost or perhaps add high end talent like Lee or even Nyquist.  Barring that, here’s hoping they have faith in the talent that made them comfortable to make the Duchene trade in the first place instead of feeling the need to placate fans (and their coach) with a guy like Mats Zuccarello.