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Daily Matchup

December 19 – Day 76 – Predator drones

If you only went off the NHL schedule, you might think that today is a Saturday, but it is in fact a Tuesday.

Have I lost you yet?

Allow me to explain: the day’s first game, Carolina at Toronto, is slated to drop the puck at 2 p.m. today, five hours before you’d expect for a week game. Once the matinee is out of the way, three games (Detroit at the New York Islanders, Anaheim at the New York Rangers and Minnesota at Ottawa [RDS]) will get started at 7 p.m., followed by Boston at Buffalo (NBCSN/SN/TVAS) half an hour later. Winnipeg at Nashville finds its start at 8 p.m., trailed 30 minutes later by Washington at Dallas and Florida at Arizona at 9 p.m. Finally, tonight’s co-nightcaps – Montréal at Vancouver (RDS/TSN2) and Tampa Bay at Vegas (SN1) – get green lit at 10 p.m. to close the evening out. All times Eastern.

The Bruins-Sabres rivalry comes to life tonight, and W Jamie McGinn and RW Radim Vrbata are making their first return to Gila River Arena since joining the Panthers this offseason. However, it’s hard to ignore the action in Tennessee, so it’s off to Nashville with us!

 

You’re hard pressed to find many better teams in the NHL than these two.

Of course, after a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals last season, 21-7-4 Nashville leading the Western Conference wasn’t exactly unexpected. The Preds’ month of December has been a shining example of their style of play, as they’ve earned a commanding 6-0-1 record.

18-4-3 G Pekka Rinne has been nothing short of exemplary since flipping to the last page of his calendar. Having earned five starts this month, he’s posted a .948 save percentage and 1.74 GAA (both top-five efforts among the 41 goalies with at least three starts since December 2) to elevate his season numbers to a .93 save percentage and 2.25 GAA, making him the third-best goaltender in the NHL so far this campaign.

Making Rinne’s effort even more incredible is the fact that his defense, given its offensive contributions, leaves him more than his fair share of work. Even with D Alexei Emelin‘s team-leading 3.42 hits-per-game, F Filip Forsberg‘s seven takeaways and D Roman Josi‘s 2.28 blocks-per-game (all over the past seven games), he and 3-3-1 G Juuse Saros have faced 263 shots this month, the seventh-most in the NHL.

Of course, if any team is going to break through Rinne and Nashville’s defense, I’d bank on 19-10-5 Winnipeg, the Central Division’s third place team. Though they don’t come into tonight’s game on quite the hot streak the Predators are experiencing, the fact that the Jets’ offense enters the night averaging 3.26 goals-per-game to rank fifth in the league shows that they’re capable of going any night of the week that ends in -day.

If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it 1000 times: The Jets’ first line – specifically the talents of C Mark Scheifele (15-21-36 totals) and RW Blake Wheeler (8-31-39) – needs to be in the discussion for the most dominant in the Western Conference, if not the NHL as a whole (yes, Tampa Bay, we know you exist). Scheifele and Wheeler on their own might be able to take on most lines in the league, while adding LW Kyle Connor (10-9-19) into the mix to complete the line is not too shabby either.

Of course, it also doesn’t hurt that Winnipeg is fortunate enough to employ W Nikolaj Ehlers (15-10-25 totals), RW Patrik Laine (16-11-27) and F Bryan Little (5-14-19) on the second line. Between the efforts of these two lines, Nashville’s defense just might be forced to consider performing their primary job descriptions a bit more than they would like this evening.

Given how often these teams have been featured in the DtFR Game of the Day series (a combined 19 times), it’s probably no surprise that I really enjoy watching both of these clubs and am confident they’ll be mighty forces in the postseason. However, only one team can win this evening, and I’m siding with the Preds. They’ve been nigh unstoppable this month, and the fact that they’re playing within the friendly confines of Bridgestone Arena should ensure they continue leading the conference for at least another night.


Even though C Adam Henrique buried a nifty backhanded shot in his return to the Prudential Center, the New Jersey Devils beat the Anaheim Ducks 5-3 in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

The first period was a defensive affair, as only a combined 13 shots were fired. That being said, the scoreboard read 2-0 at the first intermission in favor of the Ducks thanks to C Ryan Getzlaf‘s (F Rickard Rakell and D Josh Manson) snap shot at the 6:44 mark and W Jakob Silfverberg‘s (F Andrew Cogliano and Henrique) snapper 3:46 later.

New Jersey finally got on the board at the 8:11 mark of the second period on a power play tip-in by Second Star of the Game LW Miles Wood (D Sami Vatanen and Third Star W Jesper Bratt). Henrique (Manson) lobbed the puck over Vatanen to effectively assist himself to a backhander 3:10 later to set the score at 3-1, but the Devils pulled themselves back within a goal on Wood’s (C Pavel Zacha) second tally of the night, a wrist shot with 1:44 remaining before the second intermission.

If the Ducks controlled the first period, Jersey absolutely dominated the third, as they scored three unanswered goals to earn the victory. The first of those was buried at the 5:49 mark courtesy of Bratt (F Blake Coleman and F Brian Boyle) to level the game at three-all. That tie held until 4:07 remained in regulation when First Star RW Stefan Noesen (Boyle and D Andy Greene) scored the game-winning marker.

After Boyle centered a pass to him from the blue line, Noesen tried to rip a wrister past G Ryan Miller, but the netminder aggressively deflected the puck away. Unfortunately for him, that move left his cage yawning, and Noesen was able to collect the loose puck and bury it into the back of the net.

With seven seconds remaining in the game, Noesen (Boyle) scored a wrister on an empty net to secure the Devils’ second-consecutive victory.

G Cory Schneider earned the victory after saving 21-of-24 shots faced (.875 save percentage), leaving the loss to Miller, who saved 29-of-33 (.879).

There’s no stopping home teams lately in the DtFR Game of the Day series, as hosts have won four consecutive contests. This run of success has improved their record to 43-24-9 in the series, 20 points better than the visitors.

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Previews

Florida Panthers 2017-’18 Season Preview

Florida Panthers

35-36-11, 81 points, sixth in the Atlantic Division

Additions: W Evgeni Dadonov, C Micheal Haley, RW Radim Vrbata

Subtractions: G Reto Berra (signed with ANA), F Jussi Jokinen (signed with EDM), C Jon Marchessault (drafted by VGK), F Kyle Rau (signed with MIN), D Brent Regner (signed with DAL), C Michael Sgarbossa (signed with WPG), W Reilly Smith (traded to VGK), RW Paul Thompson (signed with VGK), W Thomas Vanek (signed with VAN)

Offseason Analysis: For some, the 2015-‘16 season feels like yesterday. To others, it was ages ago.

Then there’s Florida.

2016 marked the Panthers’ second playoff appearance since 2000’s sweep by Jersey, and Florida earned that berth in the most dominating way: winning the Atlantic by six points over archrival Tampa.

Though Florida was eliminated in the first round, the future looked bright. C Aleksander Barkov, C Nick Bjugstad, D Aaron Ekblad, C Jonathan Huberdeau, Smith and F Vincent Trocheck all had yet to turn 25-years-old, and they were led by ageless wonder RW Jaromir Jagr.

A year later, although that core remained intact, the Panthers found themselves golfing early, missing the playoffs by 14 points.

It’s one thing to narrowly miss the playoffs, but how could something like this happen?

One problem was Florida’s slow start. Former head coach Gerrard Gallant’s (now Vegas’ coach) Panthers started 11-10-1 before being infamously sacked after losing 3-2 at Carolina, but general-manager-turned-head-coach Tom Rowe proved unable to turn the squad around.

Maybe it was the slow start, or maybe it was the rash firing of the best head coach in franchise history, but since I’m a numbers guy (like Panthers management claims), I believe the answer lies in Florida’s goals against. During the 2015-’16 season, the Panthers scored 232 goals and allowed only 200 for a +32 differential. Last year, Florida scored 210 times (22 less than before) and allowed 237 tallies (37 more) for a -27 differential, a net change of -59.

Where did those opposing goals come from?

I believe the answer falls squarely on the front office’s shoulders. During the playoff season, Florida allowed 29.5 shots to reach G Roberto Luongo per game, tying for 13th-best in the NHL. Last season, that number climbed to 31.6 shots-per-game – the eighth-worst mark. To be fair, Luongo didn’t have the best of campaigns with a .915 save percentage and 2.68 GAA, but the fact that defensemen Brian Campbell, 25-year-old Erik Gudbranson and 26-year-old Dmitry Kulikov all departed the team before last season began, for no other apparent reason than supposed analytics, played a major role.

Trying to resolve this situation and get his squad back to where it belongs, re-anointed GM Dale Tallon elected to not resign 45-year-old Jagr (16-30-46), allow 26-year-old Marchessault (30-21-51) to be selected in the expansion draft (but, why?) and trade 26-year-old Smith (15-22-37) to Vegas.

You read that correctly: Florida thinks offense was the problem.

Don’t get me wrong: 28-year-old Dadonov (30-36-66, KHL) and 36-year-old Vrbata (20-35-55, Arizona) will be valuable additions in replacing Jagr and Marchessault, but it’s a question if Florida’s squeaking wheel didn’t receive the grease. Even if the plan was to draft the elite defenseman of the future, Tallon didn’t select one until Max Gildon of the US NTDP in the third round. Instead, he chose RW Owen Tippett with his first pick for a club with a lot of talent on that side already.

This preview isn’t an attack on advanced analytics – I’m a fan in most instances. However, this preview is an attack on GMs changing course while building arguably the most success the franchise has ever seen (yes, I know Florida won the 1996 Eastern Conference). Unloading young offensive talent – and Jagr – a year after keeping only half the defensive corps is a recipe for disaster, both now and for the immediate future of this organization.

Instead of building a team around a desired analytic, maybe management should have learned which stat was already working and build the rest of its team around that core. Now, Florida may be left in shambles for the foreseeable future.

Offseason Grade: F

First and foremost, letting, no, working out a deal with Vegas to ensure Marchessault was selected in the expansion draft was a crazy idea. That being said, even with the departures of him and Jagr, I still feel that the Panthers’ offense is capable of showing signs of growth with Dadonov and Vrbata in comparison to last year. But, until the blue line improves, Florida will not able to climb much further than seventh place in the Atlantic Division.

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Daily Matchup

November 1 – Day 20 – The Great Dane

We’re trying out our new DtFR mirror technology. I can only assume that a night with no hockey that aligned with the one night of the year when your neighbors give out free candy has you looking something like this.

Simmer down, kiddo.

Anyways, hockey’s one-day vacation has us feeling all types of withdrawals. Thank goodness we get a healthy serving of games today, starting with two at the usual time of 7 p.m. (St. Louis at the New York Rangers and Dallas at Columbus), followed half an hour later by four more (Boston at Florida [TVAS], Carolina at Ottawa [RDS2], Tampa Bay at the New York Islanders [NBCSN] and Edmonton at Toronto). 8 p.m. brings with it two puck drops (Buffalo at Minnesota and Washington at Winnipeg), with Calgary at Chicago trailing by 30 minutes. Nashville at Colorado finds its start at 9 p.m. At 10 p.m. the San Jose at Arizona (NBCSN) game starts, followed 1800 seconds later (that’s 30 minutes, guys) by Anaheim at Los Angeles, tonight’s nightcap. All times eastern.

Short list:

  • Tampa Bay at New York: Last year, the Lightning defeated the Islanders in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in five games.
  • San Jose at Arizona: Mikkel Boedker spent eight seasons in Glendale before being traded away to Colorado at the deadline last season.
  • Anaheim at Los Angeles: You might have heard about this one. They call it the Freeway Face-Off. It’s kind of a big deal.

Eight seasons is a long time, and I don’t feel like we’ll have many reasons to go watch Arizona this season, so I’m drawn to the late game in the desert.

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Danish right wing Boedker was drafted eighth overall in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft by the Coyotes. He jumped right into the league that season, scoring 11 goals under head coach Wayne Gretzky, which tied him for sixth-most on the squad.

Boedker’s best campaign with Arizona was in 2013-’14 when he tied Radim Vrbata for the second-most points on the team with 51. But, as has been par for the course for the Coyotes since 2011-’12, it did not yield any playoff action.

Last season, Boedker shed his brick red sweater for a burgundy Avalanche uniform after being traded on February 29. It was all for naught though, as Boedker found himself on the golf course following the regular season for his fourth season in a row.

This offseason he joined a San Jose Sharks who knows a little bit about the playoffs, coming off a Stanley Cup run that fell just a series short a season ago. He has little to show for his work on San Jose‘s second line, notching a lone goal.

The 6-3-0 Sharks have played a more defensive game this season, allowing only 21 goals against – three fewer than the league average. Martin Jones has a .916 save percentage for 2.15 GAA, but he is getting a lot of help from his defensive corps. Four skaters (Justin Braun, Brent Burns, Paul Martin and Joe Pavelski) have 15 or more blocks to their credit, and their efforts have resulted in only 25.2 shots against per game, the second-fewest shots against per game in the league.

The 2-6-0 Coyotes would have to be classified as an offensive club, due to the fact that they definitely don’t play defensive hockey. They’ve scored 24 goals this season – on par with the rest of the league – led by Brad Richardson‘s seven points. That being said, it is Oliver Ekman-Larsson getting a lot of the accolades with a team-leading five goals to his credit.

Some players to keep an eye on in tonight’s game include Arizona‘s Max Domi (six assists [leads the team]), Ekman-Larsson (five goals [leads the team]) and Richardson (seven points [leads the team]) & San Jose‘s Burns (seven assists [tied for third-most in the league]), Jones (five wins [tied for third-most in the NHL]), Pavelski (11 points [tied for third-most in the league] on seven assists [tied for third-most in the NHL]) and Joe Thornton (seven assists [tied for third-most in the league]).

Vegas marks Arizona with a +150 in almost every book, meaning that the Sharks are favored.

I’d say that’s a very safe bet.

Hockey Birthday:

  • Al Arbour (1932-2015) – Arbour won eight total Stanley Cups: four as a player (two of which were with Toronto) and four in a row as head coach of the New York Islanders.
  • Phil Myre (1948-) – This goaltender played 14 seasons in the NHL for six different teams. Four years after being drafted fifth overall in the 1966 NHL Entry Draft, he was on the 1970-’71 Montréal Stanley Cup winning team .
  • Tie Domi (1969-) – A right wing that played 16 NHL seasons as an enforcer, Domi is most remembered for his 11 campaigns in Toronto. Maybe son Max will give him a goal for his birthday.
  • Matt Moulson (1983-) – This left wing is in his third season with Buffalo. Two seasons ago he struck 41 points, the second-best effort on the squad that year.
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Daily Matchup

January 4 – Day 86 – Pacific Division Pandemonium

It’s a league-best nine straight wins for the Florida Panthers, as they defeated the Minnesota Wild 2-1 last night in our Game of the Day!

The first goal of the game didn’t take even 30 seconds of play.  Third Star of the Game Dmitry Kulikov and Jonathan Huberdeau assisted First Star Jaromir Jagr to his first of two goals on the evening (on only two shots, no less!), setting the score at 1-0, which held into the intermission.

Just as Jagr didn’t wait in the first period to give his team a score, neither did Jason Zucker, as he was assisted by Mikko Koivu and Ryan Suter to a goal at the 48 second mark of the second.  His game-tying goal was the only tally of the second period.

Brandon Pirri and Kulikov waited a little while into the period before assisting Jagr to his game-winning tally after 8:52.

Second Star Al Montoya improves his record to 6-1-1 after saving 39 of 40 (97.5%), while Devan Dubnyk’s record falls to 16-11-3 after saving 27 of 29 (93.1%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 34-16-6, with the home squads leading the roadies by 26 points.

I know we’ve gotten comfortable in Sunrise, but the Panthers don’t have a game tonight, so it looks like we’ll have to look outside the Sunshine State for our Game of the Day!  The action gets started at 7 p.m. eastern when Detroit pays a visit to New Jersey (TVAS), with Ottawa at St. Louis (RDS) following an hour later.  9 p.m. eastern brings with it the start of two games (Los Angeles at Colorado [NBCSN] and Carolina at Edmonton), while this evening’s nightcap, Arizona at Vancouver, follows an hour later.

Arizona at Vancouver is tonight’s only divisional rivalry, and Detroit at New Jersey is the only game featuring two squads both currently qualifying for the playoffs.

Of late, I’ve been favoring the games between the qualifiers, but I’m going to go off script today due to the competition for the Pacific Division’s playoff spots, as a Vancouver win moves them from fourth to second-best in the division and focusing on the postseason.

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This will be both squads’ second appearance in the Game of the Day series.  The Coyotes currently own a 1-0-0 record thanks to their 4-3 overtime victory in Anaheim on November 9.  Vancouver‘s lone appearance wasn’t quite so fortunate, as they fell 5-0 at home to the Los Angeles Kings last Monday.

The 18-16-4 Arizona Coyotes currently sit in second place in the Pacific Division and seventh in the Western Conference.  They’ve utilized a top-10 offense, as measured by goals scored, to fight their way into playoff position in their highly-competitive division (second and seventh are separated by only five points).

Although they are led by Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s 109 shots, the Coyotes have put only 1022 shots on net so far this season.  Fortunately for them, 10.5% of those attempts are finding the back of the net (led by Captain Shane Doan’s 13 goals) for 107 goals, ninth most in the league.  One portion of the Coyotes‘ play that still needs to find success is their power play.  Although Arizona has had 143 opportunities, 22 over the league average, they have managed 24 goals (led by Doan’s six), only one more than average.  To make matters worse, the Coyotes‘ special teams have allowed eight shorties already this season – most teams have only allowed three!

It has been fortunate that the offense has found success, because they have needed to cover for defensive mistakes.  Even with Michael Stone’s team-leading 61 blocks, the Coyotes have still allowed 1169 shots to reach 10-9-1 Mike Smith and co. (3-2-2 Louis Domingue will get the start), of which only 90.2% have been saved for 121 goals against, third-worst in the league.  The only bright spot for the defense has been their average penalty kill, which is good, since Arizona likes to commit penalties.  The opposition has had 138 man-advantages, of which the Coyotes have killed 78.99%, allowing 29 goals.

Their most recent showing was a 4-3 overtime loss in Edmonton on Saturday.

The 15-15-9 Vancouver Canucks are currently fourth-best in the Pacific Division and 10th in the Western Conference, but a win tonight puts them in second in the division, at least for the evening.  They play a better defensive game, but both sides of the ice need to see an improvement if this team wants to be taken seriously.

Led by Chris Tanev’s 94 blocks, the Canucks have allowed 1195 shots to reach 10-11-6 Ryan Miller and co. (4-4-2 Jacob Markstrom will start), of which they’ve collectively saved 91.2% for 108 goals against.  Their penalty kill is slightly below-average, killing 78.95% of attacks and allowing 28 goals.

It could be argued that Vancouver‘s offense has simply been unlucky this season.  They’ve put 1138 shot on net so far this season (led by Radim Vrbata’s 138), but only 8.1% have found the back of the net for 92 goals (led by Daniel Sedin’s 16).  The power play continues that trend, as it has been successful only 16.03% of the time, scoring 21 goals (led b Sedin’s five) on 131 opportunities.

Their most recent showing was a 2-1 shootout victory over the Ducks on New Year’s Day.

As an added bonus, tonight’s game is also the first return of Brad Richardson to Rogers Arena, who spent the last two seasons with the Canucks before signing with the Coyotes in free agency this offseason.  He played a total of 118 games over his career in British Columbia, scoring 44 points (19 goals and 25 assists).

Tonight’s game will be the second of four meetings this regular season.  The first game went to the visiting Canucks on October 30, who won 4-3.

Some players to watch in tonight’s game include Arizona‘s Mikkel Boedker (30 points, 10 even-strength goals and 10 power play assists [all lead team]) and Vancouver‘s Henrik Sedin (24 assists [ninth in the league]).

This is a tough game for me to predict, as I do not believe either to be a playoff-caliber team, at least not as they are currently.  That being said, I think that Arizona‘s offense will be too much for the Canucks to handle, so I’ll pick the Coyotes to win.